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At least 307 records · Page 17
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NASA NTRS2007

A New Look at Stratospheric Sudden Warmings. Part II: Evaluation of Numerical Model Simulations

The simulation of major midwinter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) in six stratosphere-resolving general circulation models (GCMs) is examined. The GCMs are compared to a new climatology of SSWs, based on the dynamical characteristics of the events. First, the number, type, and temporal distribution of SSW events are evaluated. Most of the models show a lower frequency of SSW events than the climatology, which has a mean frequency of 6.0 SSWs per decade. Statistical tests show that three of the six models produce significantly fewer SSWs than the climatology, between 1.0 and 2.6 SSWs per decade. Second, four process-based diagnostics are calculated for all of the SSW events in each model. It is found that SSWs in the GCMs compare favorably with dynamical benchmarks for SSW established in the first part of the study. These results indicate that GCMs are capable of quite accurately simulating the dynamics required to produce SSWs, but with lower frequency than the climatology. Further dynamical diagnostics hint that, in at least one case, this is due to a lack of meridional heat flux in the lower stratosphere. Even though the SSWs simulated by most GCMs are dynamically realistic when compared to the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, the reasons for the relative paucity of SSWs in GCMs remains an important and open question.

Charlton, Andrew J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

ETARA PC version 3.3 user's guide: Reliability, availability, maintainability simulation model

A user's manual describing an interactive, menu-driven, personal computer based Monte Carlo reliability, availability, and maintainability simulation program called event time availability reliability (ETARA) is discussed. Given a reliability block diagram representation of a system, ETARA simulates the behavior of the system over a specified period of time using Monte Carlo methods to generate block failure and repair intervals as a function of exponential and/or Weibull distributions. Availability parameters such as equivalent availability, state availability (percentage of time as a particular output state capability), continuous state duration and number of state occurrences can be calculated. Initial spares allotment and spares replenishment on a resupply cycle can be simulated. The number of block failures are tabulated both individually and by block type, as well as total downtime, repair time, and time waiting for spares. Also, maintenance man-hours per year and system reliability, with or without repair, at or above a particular output capability can be calculated over a cumulative period of time or at specific points in time.

Hoffman, David J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Variable Lidar Ratios for Marine and Dusty Marine Using MODIS AOD Constrained Retrievals and GOCART Model Simulations and their Impact on Level 2 CALIPSO Data Products in Version 5

The Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) onboard CALIPSO provided global measurements of attenuated backscatter profiles of various tropospheric aerosol species from June 2006 through June 2023. Extinction profiles are retrieved from these backscatter measurements by assuming a value for the extinction-to-backscatter or lidar ratio (LR). Up until version V4.51 of the data products, only a constant global value for each of the species has been used, spatially and temporally. However, it has been well known from various ground-based measurements that LRs of each aerosol species can potentially vary spatially as well seasonally. For the forthcoming Version 5 of the CALIPSO products, the CALIPSO team will implement variable lidar ratios at 532 nm for the species classified as “marine” and “dusty marine”. Here we present the essential elements of this scheme, which involves estimating lidar ratios by constraining Fernald solutions for the CALIOP particulate backscatter profiles using aerosol optical depths (AOD) from collocated MODIS retrievals. To account for the lack of measurements in various regions and seasons (e.g., Arctic winters), we leverage collocated model sea-salt volume fractions (SSVF) simulated by the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model and use an empirical relationship between the SSVF and LR to build hybrid climatological maps for the entire globe, i.e., using the modelled values when reliable values of the constrained LRs are not available. Initial evaluation of the resulting extinction profiles and corresponding AODs, both globally and in specific regions are presented using a limited amount of data. The primary improvement in AOD occurs in the coastal areas, like the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. The estimated marine LR values in these regions are significantly higher than the constant value of 23 sr used in previous data releases, likely due to mixing with offshore pollution which results in higher AODs. Initial validation results using the CALIPSO Ocean Derived Column Optical Depth (ODCOD) retrievals and ground-based AERONET AOD measurements are presented.

CALIPSO↗
NASA NTRS1990

Model simulations of rainout and washout from a warm stratiform cloud

Calculations utilizing a one-dimensional, time-dependent stratiform cloud model with parameterized microphysics to study the washout and rainout of soluble trace gases are presented. It is shown that the in-cloud concentrations of relatively insoluble species remain essentially unaffected by the presence of cloudwater and rainwater, while the concentrations of highly soluble species are rapidly depleted within the cloud. Due to this depletion it is shown that for highly soluble species the below-cloud scavenging via washout can dominate over in-cloud scavenging via rainout; in-cloud, aqueous-phase cloudwater and rainwater concentrations can differ considerably and, near the cloudbase, cloudwater concentrations can exceed rainwater concentrations by factors of two to ten.

Xing, Lin↗
NASA NTRS2009

Overview of Proposal on High Resolution Climate Model Simulations of Recent Hurricane and Typhoon Activity: The Impact of SSTs and the Madden Julian Oscillation

This talk gives an update on the progress and further plans for a coordinated project to carry out and analyze high-resolution simulations of tropical storm activity with a number of state-of-the-art global climate models. Issues addressed include, the mechanisms by which SSTs control tropical storm. activity on inter-annual and longer time scales, the modulation of that activity by the Madden Julian Oscillation on sub-seasonal time scales, as well as the sensitivity of the results to model formulation. The project also encourages companion coarser resolution runs to help assess resolution dependence, and. the ability of the models to capture the large-scale and long-terra changes in the parameters important for hurricane development. Addressing the above science questions is critical to understanding the nature of the variability of the Asian-Australian monsoon and its regional impacts, and thus CLIVAR RAMP fully endorses the proposed tropical storm simulation activity. The project is open to all interested organizations and investigators, and the results from the runs will be shared among the participants, as well as made available to the broader scientific community for analysis.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS1988

Observations and wind-forced model simulations of the mean seasonal cycle in tropical Pacific sea surface topography

This paper quantitatively evaluates simulations of the mean seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacific Ocean, using a multiple vertical-mode version of the Busalacchi and O'Brien (1980) linear model. The period studied (1979-1981) includes several coincident oceanic and surface wind data sets, as well as a fairly regular seasonal cycle leading into the 1982-1983 El Nino. Simulated mean seasonal cycles in dynamic height and sea level are compared with observed variations in expendable bathythermograph and island tide gauge data averaged over the same period. It was found that, although all simulations show characteristic features of the mean meridional ridge-trough structure in surface topography, simulated north and south equatorial ridges at 20 deg N and 20 deg S are much higher than those observed. Only weak equatorial ridges were generated near 4 N, and none of the simulations exhibited a significant equatorial trough. These discrepancies are attributed to limitations in model physics and to the wind forcing.

Mcphaden, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Impacts of Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics on Model Simulations of U.S. Deep South Summer Convection

Convection-allowing numerical weather simula- tions have often been shown to produce convective storms that have significant sensitivity to choices of model physical parameterizations. Among the most important of these sensitivities are those related to cloud microphysics, but planetary boundary layer parameterizations also have a significant impact on the evolution of the convection. Aspects of the simulated convection that display sensitivity to these physics schemes include updraft size and intensity, simulated radar reflectivity, timing and placement of storm initi- ation and decay, total storm rainfall, and other storm features derived from storm structure and hydrometeor fields, such as predicted lightning flash rates. In addition to the basic parameters listed above, the simulated storms may also exhibit sensitivity to im- posed initial conditions, such as the fields of soil temper- ature and moisture, vegetation cover and health, and sea and lake water surface temperatures. Some of these sensitivities may rival those of the basic physics sensi- tivities mentioned earlier. These sensitivities have the potential to disrupt the accuracy of short-term forecast simulations of convective storms, and thereby pose sig- nificant difficulties for weather forecasters. To make a systematic study of the quantitative impacts of each of these sensitivities, a matrix of simulations has been performed using all combinations of eight separate microphysics schemes, three boundary layer schemes, and two sets of initial conditions. The first version of initial conditions consists of the default data from large-scale operational model fields, while the second features specialized higher- resolution soil conditions, vegetation conditions and water surface temperatures derived from datasets created at NASA's Short-term Prediction and Operational Research Tran- sition (SPoRT) Center at the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) in Huntsville, AL. Simulations as outlined above, each 48 in number, were conducted for five midsummer weakly sheared coastal convective events each at two sites, Mobile, AL (MOB) and Houston, TX (HGX). Of special interest to operational forecasters at MOB and HGX were accuracy of timing and placement of convective storm initiation, reflectivity magnitudes and coverage, rainfall and inferred lightning threat.

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Approximate simulation model for analysis and optimization in engineering system design

Computational support of the engineering design process routinely requires mathematical models of behavior to inform designers of the system response to external stimuli. However, designers also need to know the effect of the changes in design variable values on the system behavior. For large engineering systems, the conventional way of evaluating these effects by repetitive simulation of behavior for perturbed variables is impractical because of excessive cost and inadequate accuracy. An alternative is described based on recently developed system sensitivity analysis that is combined with extrapolation to form a model of design. This design model is complementary to the model of behavior and capable of direct simulation of the effects of design variable changes.

Sobieszczanski-Sobieski, Jaroslaw↗
NASA NTRS2012

Does Dynamical Downscaling Introduce Novel Information in Climate Model Simulations of Recipitation Change over a Complex Topography Region?

Current climate and future climate-warming runs with the RegCM Regional Climate Model (RCM) at 50 and 11 km-resolutions forced by the ECHAM GCM are used to examine whether the increased resolution of the RCM introduces novel information in the precipitation field when the models are run for the mountainous region of the Hellenic peninsula. The model results are inter-compared with the resolution of the RCM output degraded to match that of the GCM, and it is found that in both the present and future climate runs the regional models produce more precipitation than the forcing GCM. At the same time, the RCM runs produce increases in precipitation with climate warming even though they are forced with a GCM that shows no precipitation change in the region. The additional precipitation is mostly concentrated over the mountain ranges, where orographic precipitation formation is expected to be a dominant mechanism. It is found that, when examined at the same resolution, the elevation heights of the GCM are lower than those of the averaged RCM in the areas of the main mountain ranges. It is also found that the majority of the difference in precipitation between the RCM and the GCM can be explained by their difference in topographic height. The study results indicate that, in complex topography regions, GCM predictions of precipitation change with climate warming may be dry biased due to the GCM smoothing of the regional topography.

Tselioudis, George↗
NASA NTRS2017

The International Heat Stress Genotype Experiment for Modeling Wheat Response to Heat: Field Experiments and AgMIP-Wheat Multi-Model Simulations

The data set contains a portion of the International Heat Stress Genotype Experiment (IHSGE) data used in the AgMIP-Wheat project to analyze the uncertainty of 30 wheat crop models and quantify the impact of heat on global wheat yield productivity. It includes two spring wheat cultivars grown during two consecutive winter cropping cycles at hot, irrigated, and low latitude sites in Mexico (Ciudad Obregon and Tlaltizapan), Egypt (Aswan), India (Dharwar), the Sudan (Wad Medani), and Bangladesh (Dinajpur). Experiments in Mexico included normal (November-December) and late (January-March) sowing dates. Data include local daily weather data, soil characteristics and initial soil conditions, crop measurements (anthesis and maturity dates, anthesis and final total above ground biomass, final grain yields and yields components), and cultivar information. Simulations include both daily in-season and end-of-season results from 30 wheat models.

Wheat; Field Experimental Data; Heat Stress; Simul↗
NASA NTRS2006

Simulation Modeling and Performance Evaluation of Space Networks

In space exploration missions, the coordinated use of spacecraft as communication relays increases the efficiency of the endeavors. To conduct trade-off studies of the performance and resource usage of different communication protocols and network designs, JPL designed a comprehensive extendable tool, the Multi-mission Advanced Communications Hybrid Environment for Test and Evaluation (MACHETE). The design and development of MACHETE began in 2000 and is constantly evolving. Currently, MACHETE contains Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS) protocol standards such as Proximity-1, Advanced Orbiting Systems (AOS), Packet Telemetry/Telecommand, Space Communications Protocol Specification (SCPS), and the CCSDS File Delivery Protocol (CFDP). MACHETE uses the Aerospace Corporation s Satellite Orbital Analysis Program (SOAP) to generate the orbital geometry information and contact opportunities. Matlab scripts provide the link characteristics. At the core of MACHETE is a discrete event simulator, QualNet. Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN) is an end-to-end architecture providing communication in and/or through highly stressed networking environments. Stressed networking environments include those with intermittent connectivity, large and/or variable delays, and high bit error rates. To provide its services, the DTN protocols reside at the application layer of the constituent internets, forming a store-and-forward overlay network. The key capabilities of the bundling protocols include custody-based reliability, ability to cope with intermittent connectivity, ability to take advantage of scheduled and opportunistic connectivity, and late binding of names to addresses. In this presentation, we report on the addition of MACHETE models needed to support DTN, namely: the Bundle Protocol (BP) model. To illustrate the use of MACHETE with the additional DTN model, we provide an example simulation to benchmark its performance. We demonstrate the use of the DTN protocol and discuss statistics gathered concerning the total time needed to simulate numerous bundle transmissions

network protocols↗
NASA NTRS1989

Thermospheric dynamics during September 18-19, 1984. I - Model simulations

The September 18-19, 1984 Equinox Transient Study (ETS) interval was simulated using the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermospheric GCM with inputs guided by observations. High-latitude forcings for the model were defined with precision for this period. The importance of upward-propagating semidiurnal tides is emphasized, the first-realistic time-dependent simulation to incorporate such tides. A description of the simulated quiet time thermospheric structure for September 18 is contrasted with the storm time behavior of September 19. Several features of the storm response are described, including the generation of large-scale equatorward propagating disturbances. Longer-lived perturbations of the neutral temperature and composition are also discussed. A new feature discovered in the model predictions for altitudes around 200 km comprises a quasi-fixed, four-cell pattern of high-and low-density regions in the polar cap.

Crowley, G.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Spatial Variability in Column CO2 Inferred from High Resolution GEOS-5 Global Model Simulations: Implications for Remote Sensing and Inversions

Column CO2 observations from current and future remote sensing missions represent a major advancement in our understanding of the carbon cycle and are expected to help constrain source and sink distributions. However, data assimilation and inversion methods are challenged by the difference in scale of models and observations. OCO-2 footprints represent an area of several square kilometers while NASA s future ASCENDS lidar mission is likely to have an even smaller footprint. In contrast, the resolution of models used in global inversions are typically hundreds of kilometers wide and often cover areas that include combinations of land, ocean and coastal areas and areas of significant topographic, land cover, and population density variations. To improve understanding of scales of atmospheric CO2 variability and representativeness of satellite observations, we will present results from a global, 10-km simulation of meteorology and atmospheric CO2 distributions performed using NASA s GEOS-5 general circulation model. This resolution, typical of mesoscale atmospheric models, represents an order of magnitude increase in resolution over typical global simulations of atmospheric composition allowing new insight into small scale CO2 variations across a wide range of surface flux and meteorological conditions. The simulation includes high resolution flux datasets provided by NASA s Carbon Monitoring System Flux Pilot Project at half degree resolution that have been down-scaled to 10-km using remote sensing datasets. Probability distribution functions are calculated over larger areas more typical of global models (100-400 km) to characterize subgrid-scale variability in these models. Particular emphasis is placed on coastal regions and regions containing megacities and fires to evaluate the ability of coarse resolution models to represent these small scale features. Additionally, model output are sampled using averaging kernels characteristic of OCO-2 and ASCENDS measurement concepts to create realistic pseudo-datasets. Pseudo-data are averaged over coarse model grid cell areas to better understand the ability of measurements to characterize CO2 distributions and spatial gradients on both short (daily to weekly) and long (monthly to seasonal) time scales

Ott, L.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Diagnostic evaluation of numerical model simulations using the tendency equation

A procedure is proposed to expand the diagnostic capabilities of the pressure tendency equation of a primitive equation NWP model by computing the pressure tendency in physical coordinates. The advantages of isolating the density advection as a diagnostic tool to understand pressure changes is shown. By simple thermodynamic arguments it is demonstrated that in areas of synoptic-scale cyclonic development, the vertically integrated density advection is more than sufficient to explain the depletion of mass over a growing depression. Consequently, the joint contribution of the net divergence and vertical motion opposes the pressure fall. This is illustrated for a case of rapid cyclogenesis in southern South America.

Jusem, Juan C.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Assessment of Natural and Anthropogenic Aerosol Air Pollution In the Middle East Using MERRA-2, CAMS Data Assimilation Products, and High-Resolution WRF-Chem Model Simulations

Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications v.2 (MERRA-2), Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service Operational Analysis (CAMS-OA), and a high-resolution regional Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) were used to evaluate natural and anthropogenic particulate matter (PM) air pollution in the Middle East (ME) during 2015–2016. Two Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) retrievals – combined product Deep Blue and Deep Target (MODIS-DB&DT) and Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) – and Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations as well as in situ PM measurements for 2016 were used for validation of the WRF-Chem output and both assimilation products. MERRA-2 and CAMS-OA assimilate AOD observations. WRF-Chem is a free-running model, but dust emission in WRF-Chem is tuned to fit AOD and aerosol volume size distributions obtained from AERONET. MERRA-2 was used to construct WRF-Chem initial and boundary conditions both for meteorology and chemical and aerosol species. SO2 emissions in WRF-Chem are based on the novel OMI-HTAP SO2 emission dataset. The correlation with the AERONET AOD is highest for MERRA-2 (0.72–0.91), MAIAC (0.63–0.96), and CAMSOA (0.65–0.87), followed by MODIS-DB&DT (0.56–0.84) and WRF-Chem (0.43–0.85). However, CAMS-OA has a relatively high positive mean bias with respect to AERONET AOD. The spatial distributions of seasonally averaged AODs from WRF-Chem, assimilation products, and MAIAC are well correlated with MODIS-DB&DT AOD product. MAIAC has the highest correlation (R = 0.8), followed by MERRA-2 (R = 0.66), CAMS-OA (R = 0.65), and WRF-Chem (R = 0.61). WRF-Chem, MERRA-2, and MAIAC underestimate and CAMS-OA overestimates MODIS-DB&DT AOD. The simulated and observed PM concentrations might differ by a factor of 2 because it is more challenging for the model and the assimilation products to reproduce PM concentration measured within the city. Although aerosol fields in WRF-Chem and assimilation products are entirely consistent, WRF-Chem is preferable for analysis of regional air quality over the ME due to its higher spatial resolution and better SO2 emissions. The WRF-Chem’s PM background concentrations exceed the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines over the entire ME. Mineral dust is the major contributor to PM (≈ 75%–95%) compared to other aerosol types. Near and downwind from the SO2 emission sources, non-dust aerosols (primarily sulfate) contribute up to 30% to PM(sub 2.5). The contribution of sea salt to PM in coastal regions can reach 5%. The contributions of organic matter, black carbon and organic carbon to PM over the Middle East are insignificant. In the major cities over the Arabian Peninsula, the 90th percentile of PM(sub 10) and PM(sub 2.5) (particles with diameters less than 10 and 2.5 μm, respectively) daily mean surface concentrations exceed the corresponding Kingdom of Saudi Arabia air quality limits. The contribution of the non-dust component to PM(sub 2.5) is < 25%, which limits the emission control effect on air quality. The mitigation of the dust effect on air quality requires the development of environment-based approaches like growing tree belts around the cities and enhancing in-city vegetation cover. The WRF-Chem configuration presented in this study could be a prototype of a future air quality forecast system that warns the population against air pollution hazards.

Alexander Ukhov↗
NASA NTRS1987

A modular BLSS simulation model

A bioregenerative life support system (BLSS) for extraterrestrial use will be faced with coordination problems more acute than those in any ecosystem found on Earth. A related problem in BLSS design is providing an interface between the various life support processors, one that will allow for their coordination while still allowing for system expansion. A modular model is presented of a BLSS that interfaces system processors only with the material storage reservoirs, allowing those reservoirs to act as the principal buffers in the system and thus minimizing difficulties with processor coordination. The modular nature of the model allows independent development of the detailed submodels that exist within the model framework. Using this model, BLSS dynamics were investigated under normal conditions and under various failure modes. Partial and complete failures of various components, such as the waste processors or the plants themselves, drive transient responses in the model system, allowing the examination of the effectiveness of the system reservoirs as buffers. The results from simulations help to determine control strategies and BLSS design requirements. An evolved version could be used as an interactive control aid in a future BLSS.

Rummel, John D.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Modeling, simulation, and flight characteristics of an aircraft designed to fly at 100,000 feet

A manned real time simulation of a conceptual vehicle, the stratoplane, was developed to study the problems associated with the flight characteristics of a large, lightweight vehicle. Mathematical models of the aerodynamics, mass properties, and propulsion system were developed in support of the simulation and are presented. The simulation was at first conducted without control augmentation to determine the needs for a control system. The unaugmented flying qualities were dominated by lightly damped dutch roll oscillations. Constant pilot workloads were needed at high altitudes. Control augmentation was studied using basic feedbacks. For the longitudinal axis, flight path angle, and pitch rate feedback were sufficient to damp the phugoid mode and to provide good flying qualities. In the lateral directional axis, bank angle, roll rate, and yaw rate feedbacks were sufficient to provide a safe vehicle with acceptable handling qualities. Intentionally stalling the stratoplane to very high angles of attack (deep stall) was studied as a means of enable safe and rapid descent. It was concluded that the deep stall maneuver is viable for this class of vehicle.

Sim, Alex G.↗