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We discuss an approach for efficiently combining different types of geodetic data to estimate time-dependent motions of stations in a region of active deformation.
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) provides a detailed view of the Arctic ice cover. When processed with the RADARSAT Geophysical Processor System (RGPS), it provides estimates of sea ice motion and deformation over large regions of the Arctic for extended periods of time. The deformation is dominated by the appearance of linear kinematic features that have been associated with the presence of leads. The RGPS deformation products are based on the assumption that the displacement and velocity are smooth functions of the spatial coordinates. However, if the dominant deformation of multiyear ice results from the opening, closing and shearing of leads, then the displacement and velocity can be discontinuous. This presentation discusses the kinematics associated with strong discontinuities that describe possible jumps in displacement or velocity. Ice motion from SAR data are analyzed using this framework. It is assumed that RGPS cells deform due to the presence of a lead. The lead orientation is calculated to optimally account for the observed deformation. It is shown that almost all observed deformation can be represented by lead opening and shearing. The procedure used to reprocess motion data to account for leads will be described and applied to regions of the Beaufort Sea. The procedure not only provides a new view of ice deformation, it can be used to obtain information about the presence of leads for initialization and/or validation of numerical simulations.
The purpose of the Rosetta mission is the in situ analysis of a cometary nucleus using both remote sensing equipment and scientific instruments delivered to the comet surface by a lander and transmitting measurement data to the comet-orbiting probe. Following a tour of planets including one Mars swing-by and three Earth swing-bys, the Rosetta probe is scheduled to rendezvous with comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko in May 2014. The mission poses various flight dynamics challenges, both in terms of parameter estimation and maneuver planning. Along with spacecraft parameters, the comet's position, velocity, attitude, angular velocity, inertia tensor and gravitatonal field need to be estimated. The measurements on which the estimation process is based are ground-based measurements (range and Doppler) yielding information on the heliocentric spacecraft state and images taken by an on-board camera yielding informaton on the comet state relative to the spacecraft. The image-based navigation depends on te identification of cometary landmarks (whose body coordinates also need to be estimated in the process). The paper will describe the estimation process involved, focusing on the phase when, after orbit insertion, the task arises to estimate the cometary rotational motion from camera images on which individual landmarks begin to become identifiable.
G-SAMPLE is an in-flight dynamical method for use by sample collection missions to identify the presence and quantity of collected sample material. The G-SAMPLE method implements a maximum-likelihood estimator to identify the collected sample mass, based on onboard force sensor measurements, thruster firings, and a dynamics model of the spacecraft. With G-SAMPLE, sample mass identification becomes a computation rather than an extra hardware requirement; the added cost of cameras or other sensors for sample mass detection is avoided. Realistic simulation examples are provided for a spacecraft configuration with a sample collection device mounted on the end of an extended boom. In one representative example, a 1000 gram sample mass is estimated to within 110 grams (95% confidence) under realistic assumptions of thruster profile error, spacecraft parameter uncertainty, and sensor noise. For convenience to future mission design, an overall sample-mass estimation error budget is developed to approximate the effect of model uncertainty, sensor noise, data rate, and thrust profile error on the expected estimate of collected sample mass.
The scale of the solar system is slowly changing, likely increasing as a result of solar mass loss, with additional change possible if there is a secular variation of the gravitational constant, G. The measurement of the change of scale could provide insight into the past and the future of the solar system, and in addition a better understanding of planetary motion and fundamental physics. Estimates for the expansion of the scale of the solar system are of order 1.5 cm year(exp -1) AU(exp -1), which over several years is an observable quantity with present-day laser ranging systems. This estimate suggests that laser measurements between planets could provide an accurate estimate of the solar system expansion rate. We examine distance measurements between three bodies in the inner solar system -- Earth's Moon, Mars and Venus -- and outline a mission concept for making the measurements. The concept involves placing spacecraft that carry laser ranging transponders in orbit around each body and measuring the distances between the three spacecraft over a period of several years. The analysis of these range measurements would allow the co-estimation of the spacecraft orbit, planetary ephemerides, other geophysical parameters related to the constitution and dynamics of the central bodies, and key geodetic parameters related to the solar system expansion, the Sun, and theoretical physics.
The relative position and relative proper motion of the radio sources 3C 345 and NRAO 512 are estimated from four sets of VLBI observations spread out over the period from October 1971 to May 1974. The use of phase-connection techniques yields the separation, in 1950.0 coordinates, of the centers of brightness of the compact components of the two sources. An upper bound of 0.0005 arcsec/yr is placed on the relative proper motion (70% estimated confidence limits). Bounds that can be placed on the distances to the two sources are considered, prospects for improvement in the determination of relative position and proper motion of these sources are discussed, and other possible applications of the basic technique are described.
Geodetic VLBI measurements were used to test whether the Pacific-North American plate velocity averaged over several years of direct observation (1984-1987) equals that averaged over millions of years. It was also tested whether this velocity parallels the San Andreas fault, transform faults and earthquake slip vectors in the Gulf of California, and earthquake slip vectors along the Queen Charlotte fault, along the Alaskan peninsula, and along the Kamchatkan peninsula. The VLBI data provide an estimate of the direction of plate motion that is independent of estimates from fault azimuths and earthquake slip vectors. The Euler vector determined from VLBI was found to be nearly identical to the Euler vector of plate motion model NUVEL-1, which is based on the trends of transform faults, earthquake slip vectors, and spreading rates from marine magnetic anomalies that average motion since 3 Ma. The velocity between the Pacific and North American plates averaged over the past several years equals or nearly equals its velocity averaged over the past several million years, the difference along their boundary nowhere exceeding 4 + or - 7 mm/yr.
Four possible estimators are investigated for the monitoring of crustal deformations from a combination of repeated baseline length measurements and adopted geophysical models, particularly an absolute motion plate model. The first estimator is an extension of the familiar free adjustment. The next two are Bayesian type estimators, one weak and one strong. Finally, a weighted constraint estimator is presented. The properties of these four estimators are outlined and their physical interpretations discussed. A series of simulations are performed to test the four estimators and to determine whether or not to incorporate a plate model for the monitoring of deformations. The application of these estimations to the maintenance of a new conventional terrestrial reference system is discussed.
A discussion is undertaken concerning the maximum likelihood estimator and the aircraft equations of motion it employs, with attention to the application of the concepts of minimization and estimation to a simple computed aircraft example. Graphic representations are given for the cost functions to help illustrate the minimization process. The basic concepts are then generalized, and estimations obtained from flight data are evaluated. The example considered shows the advantage of low measurement noise, multiple estimates at a given condition, the Cramer-Rao bounds, and the quality of the match between measured and computed data.
Lunar orbit missions are of great interest to the space exploration community. This paper is focused on the research, development, and feasibility of spacecraft docking within Nearly Rectilinear Halo Orbits (NRHO). In this work, a proximity estimation algorithm is developed using the Circular Restricted Three Body Problem (CR3BP) equations of motion, which can be used to estimate the proximity between a follower spacecraft and leader spacecraft while docking in NRHOs around the Moon. Promising initial simulation results are provided and discussed. This proximity estimation algorithm is shown to to provide useful tracking estimates which can be fed to the spacecraft control system and will help ensure mission success.
This paper describes a frequency-domain method for the estimation of the aeroelastic equations of motion of an aircraft using discrete sinusoidal inputs to the control surface actuators. The theory of estimation of the signal inputs and outputs is described as well as the method of obtaining accurate transfer functions from the resulting Bode plots. Methods of quantifying the accuracy of the results from more than one control input are discussed along with ways to obtain state-space and reduced-order models from the transfer function estimates. Presented is a summary of the results obtained in using the technique to develop a model of the USAF Total In-Flight Simulator (TIFS) aircraft which includes five symmetrical elastic modes of motion of the aircraft.
The use of vertical-incidence Doppler velocity in addition to radar reflectivity may yield information on drop size distribution and therefore result in better rainrate estimates. Doppler velocity can provide useful information on the raindrop size distribution. Doppler velocities from a zenith-pointing radar represent the sum of the mean reflectivity-weighted hydrometeor fallspeed and the vertical air motion. Dual-parameter rain estimation methods using the Doppler velocity, require that the latter can be removed, or is negligible. Atlas et al. (1972) derived relations between Doppler velocity, reflectivity, and rain rate assuming an exponential size distribution for rain. Ulbrich (1994) expanded on this work by deriving the relation between the Doppler velocity and the reflectivity assuming a Gamma size distribution. This distribution provides a more realistic representation of the small rain drops. To get accurate information on raindrop size distributions with the above method, the air motions must be removed from the observed Doppler velocities
A model for the present-day motion of the Rivera plate relative to the North America, Cocos, and Pacific plates is derived using new data from the Pacific-Rivera rise and Rivera transform fault, together with new estimates of Pacific-Rivera motions. The results are combined with the closure-consistent NUVEL-1 global plate motion model of DeMets et al. (1990) to examine present-day deformation in southwestern Mexico. The analysis addresses several questions raised in previous studies of the Rivera plate. Namely, do plate motion data from the northern East Pacific rise require a distinct Rivera plate? Do plate kinematic data require the subduction of the Rivera plate along the seismically quiescent Acapulco trench? If so, what does the predicted subduction rate imply about the earthquake recurrence interval in the Jalisco region of southwestern Mexico?
The Day-l algorithm for computing combined precipitation estimates in GPM is the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG). We plan for the period of record to encompass both the TRMM and GPM eras, and the coverage to extend to fully global as experience is gained in the difficult high-latitude environment. IMERG is being developed as a unified U.S. algorithm that takes advantage of strengths in the three groups that are contributing expertise: 1) the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), which addresses inter-satellite calibration of precipitation estimates and monthly scale combination of satellite and gauge analyses; 2) the CPC Morphing algorithm with Kalman Filtering (KF-CMORPH), which provides quality-weighted time interpolation of precipitation patterns following cloud motion; and 3) the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks using a Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS), which provides a neural-network-based scheme for generating microwave-calibrated precipitation estimates from geosynchronous infrared brightness temperatures. In this talk we summarize the major building blocks and important design issues driven by user needs and practical data issues. One concept being pioneered by the IMERG team is that the code system should produce estimates for the same time period but at different latencies to support the requirements of different groups of users. Another user requirement is that all these runs must be reprocessed as new IMERG versions are introduced. IMERG's status at meeting time will be summarized, and the processing scenario in the transition from TRMM to GPM will be laid out. Initially, IMERG will be run with TRMM-based calibration, and then a conversion to a GPM-based calibration will be employed after the GPM sensor products are validated. A complete reprocessing will be computed, which will complete the transition from TMPA.
Research from the 1980s–2010s suggested that integrated harvesting systems that harvest conventional products (e.g., sawtimber, pulpwood) and energy chips simultaneously were the most effective solution to produce energy chips in the US South. Alternatives, such as biomass-only systems, have important advantages in forest stands with low volumes of merchantable timber. The goal of this study was to estimate the productivity and cost of producing energy chips using non-integrated systems. Innovative chipping contractors using non-integrated systems were identified through contacts with procurement foresters responsible for purchasing energy chips. Elemental time-and-motion studies were conducted to estimate harvesting productivity on five operations, including one clearcut harvest and four first thinnings in overstocked stands. The hourly cost of equipment was estimated using the machine rate method. Cost per tonne was estimated by combining hourly productivity and hourly costs in a modified version of the Auburn Harvesting Analyzer. System productivity averaged 37 tonnes per scheduled machine hour (smh) and cut-and-haul costs averaged $33.86 t −1 (USD), which was comparable to previous estimates from integrated systems. In conclusion, this study suggests there are viable alternatives to integrated harvesting systems to produce energy chips, especially in stands with low volumes of merchantable timber.
Ground motions recorded at one location are often extrapolated to nearby regions within a given radius. Here, we explore the appropriateness of spatial extrapolation using data from seven small aperture seismic network deployments in southern California. Six of these deployments are linear arrays of 4-13 stations, and one is a 2D array of 13 stations at Pinyon Flats Observatory. The spatial footprint array diameters are 3 km or less, and each array was operational for a year or more. From our base catalog (M2.5+ earthquakes; 4038 events; September 2010 - June 2023), automated methods remove temporally overprinted waveforms from nearby events (< 5 km) in quick succession (< 5 min) and data with nonviable waveforms. These 200 samples per second data are filtered at 0.5-25 Hz and must have signal-tonoise ratios (SNRs) of 2.5+. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) are derived individually from the maximum absolute values of each of the 3-component waveforms (vertical, northsouth, and east-west). Five of the seven arrays traverse the San Jacinto fault, and two do not. Ground motion observations are compared with theoretical estimates from Abrahamson et al., 2014. On average, arrays deployed within and across fault zones consistently record ground motions above theoretical expectations, whereas off-fault arrays record ground motions at or slightly below theoretical expectations. We attribute these differences to site conditions because these trends prevail for the full data suites. For each network and each individual channel, the coefficient of variation indicates that the standard deviations are ~30±6% of the mean. Exploring relative ground motion contributions from all three channels (ternary plots), as expected, most data show that vertical ground motions are attenuated compared to horizontal ones. However, this is not always the case for RA array data, where vertical motions can be ~2-3 times larger than horizontal motions for select events near Cahuilla, CA. These anomalously high vertical motions are focal mechanism-related. These results suggest that ternary plots created using only a small amount of data can be used as a data quality metric and a tool to find anomalous features in three-component data.
Accuracy-optimized convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have emerged as highly effective models at predicting neural responses in brain areas along the primate ventral stream, but it is largely unknown whether they effectively model neurons in the complementary primate dorsal stream. We explored how well CNNs model the optic flow tuning properties of neurons in dorsal area MSTd and we compared our results with the Non-Negative Matrix Factorization (NNMF) model, which successfully models many tuning properties of MSTd neurons. To better understand the role of computational properties in the NNMF model that give rise to optic flow tuning that resembles that of MSTd neurons, we created additional CNN model variants that implement key NNMF constraints – non-negative weights and sparse coding of optic flow. While the CNNs and NNMF models both accurately estimate the observer's self-motion from purely translational or rotational optic flow, NNMF and the CNNs with nonnegative weights yield substantially less accurate estimates than the other CNNs when tested on more complex optic flow that combines observer translation and rotation. Despite its poor accuracy, NNMF gives rise to tuning properties that align more closely with those observed in primate MSTd than any of the accuracy-optimized CNNs. This work offers a step toward a deeper understanding of the computational properties and constraints that describe the optic flow tuning of primate area MSTd.
Particle flux data acquired by the ISEE 1 and 2 spacecraft reveal many of magnitude changes within the magnetopause boundary layer that occur during less than 1/4 s of time. These changes define small-scale particle structure, or microstructures within the region, many of which are apparently inclusions of plasma from adjacent regions. Particle structures resolved by the high time resolution data include groups with periods as short as 0.375 s. An estimate is derived for the motion of the microstructures with respect to an oscillatory inner boundary for four afternoon sector boundary layer crossings by measuring interspacecraft time differences as the features propagate past the satellites. On average the microstructures move toward the tail of the magnetosphere in concert with the wavy large-scale inner boundary. Furthermore, the orientations of the edges of the structures maintain an aspect similar to that of the boundary. These characteristics are expected for magnetohydrodynamic plasma flows that generate vorticity due to velocity shear stresses.