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NASA NTRS1991

North-Australian tropical seas circulation study

This investigation is intended to fully address the stated objective of the TOPEX/POSEIDON mission (National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 1986). Hence, we intend to use TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry data to study the large-scale circulation of the Coral Sea Basin and the Arafura Sea and the mass exchange between these and adjoining basins. We will obtain data from two such cruises in 1993 and 1994 and combine them with TOPEX/POSEIDON radar altimetry data to identify interannual and seasonal changes in: (1) the location of the major ocean currents and the South Equatorial Current bifurcation in the Coral Sea; (2) the source region of the South Tropical Counter Current (STCC); and (3) the water exchange between the Coral Sea and the adjoining seas. We will also estimate seasonal and interannual variations in the horizontal transport of mass and heat associated with near-surface geostrophic and wind-driven currents. In addition, the tidal components of the Coral Sea will be studied to provide a correction for altimetry subtidal sea level changes and to develop a regional numerical model for tidal forcing in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and Papua New Guinea Reef regions.

Burrage, Derek↗

NASA NTRS1991

Remote sensing of coastal environmental hazards

Examples of the application of NOAA High Resolution Picture Transmission (HRPT) data to natural hazards and disasters are reviewed. The examples discussed include flooding of the Ganges River Delta; detecting effects of salt water intrusion into freshwater marshes; detecting fires, smoke plumes, and oil slicks; and monitoring of ocean currents and eddies. The present limitations of the HRPT data and future prospects are briefly discussed.

Huh, Oscar K.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Calibration: Practical experience with ERS-1

Viewgraphs and discussion of calibration:practical experience with ERS-1 are presented. Topics covered include: radiometric calibration, geometric calibration, phase calibration, and polarimetric calibration. Basic synthetic aperture radar (SAR) measurement parameters are radar backscattering, target position, target speed, and polarization. SAR calibration facilitates quantitative measurements needed to derive geophysical parameters of the area under observation from basic SAR measurements (e.g. soil moisture, biomass, ocean wave energy, ocean currents, ice type, and ice flow).

Louet, Jacques↗

NASA NTRS1992

Cryosphere and climate

This chapter will discuss two main issues related to the cryosphere and climate. One is the effect of sea ice and salinity gradients on ocean circulation, and in particular the possible role of sea ice transport on the ocean conveyer belt. The other is the effect of the cryosphere on climate, and in particular in high-latitude warming under increased CO2. In understanding the role of the cryosphere in both cases, it is useful to elucidate two types of toy sea ice models. Neither of these represents reality, but both are useful for illustrating the archetypal features of sea ice that control much of its large-scale behavior. The first model is a simple slab thermodynamic sea ice model as presented by Thorndike. In this model there are no dynamical effects and the thickness of ice is determined by surface heat budget and oceanic heat flux considerations, with the thickness of the ice critically affecting the effective conductivity whereby heat is transferred from the bottom ice boundary to the upper ice boundary. In this model all of the sea ice characteristics are controlled by the vertical heat fluxes from the atmosphere and ocean into the ice. The thickness is controlled by the ice's becoming an effective insulator as it thickens, thus reducing conductive heat loss to the atmosphere. A second model emphasizes the effects of dynamics. It considers the ice pack to be a collection of floes moving in response to synoptic wind fields and ocean currents. These motions create semipermanent leads (open areas) over which ice can grow rapidly.

Hibler, William D., III↗

NASA NTRS1995

Reduction and coding of synthetic aperture radar data with Fourier transforms

Recently, aboard the Space Radar Laboratory (SRL), the two roles of Fourier Transforms for ocean image synthesis and surface wave analysis have been implemented with a dedicated radar processor to significantly reduce Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) ocean data before transmission to the ground. The object was to archive the SAR image spectrum, rather than the SAR image itself, to reduce data volume and capture the essential descriptors of the surface wave field. SAR signal data are usually sampled and coded in the time domain for transmission to the ground where Fourier Transforms are applied both to individual radar pulses and to long sequences of radar pulses to form two-dimensional images. High resolution images of the ocean often contain no striking features and subtle image modulations by wind generated surface waves are only apparent when large ocean regions are studied, with Fourier transforms, to reveal periodic patterns created by wind stress over the surface wave field. Major ocean currents and atmospheric instability in coastal environments are apparent as large scale modulations of SAR imagery. This paper explores the possibility of computing complex Fourier spectrum codes representing SAR images, transmitting the coded spectra to Earth for data archives and creating scenes of surface wave signatures and air-sea interactions via inverse Fourier transformations with ground station processors.

Tilley, David G.↗

NASA NTRS2000

UV 380 nm Reflectivity of the Earth's Surface

The 380 nm radiance measurements of TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) have been converted into a global data set of daily (1979 to 1992) Lambert equivalent reflectivities R of the Earth's surface and boundary layer (clouds, aerosols, surface haze, and snow/ice). Since UV surface reflectivity is between 2 and 8% for both land and water during all seasons of the year (except for ice and snow cover), reflectivities larger than the surface value indicates the presence of clouds, haze, or aerosols in the satellite field of view. Statistical analysis of 14 years of daily data show that most snow/ice-free regions of the Earth have their largest fraction of days each year when the reflectivity is low (R less than 10%). The 380 nm reflectivity data shows that the true surface reflectivity is 2 to 3% lower than the most frequently occurring reflectivity value for each TOMS scene. The most likely cause of this could be a combination of frequently occurring boundary-layer water or aerosol haze. For most regions, the observation of extremely clear conditions needed to estimate the surface reflectivity from space is a comparatively rare occurrence. Certain areas (e.g., Australia, southern Africa, portions of northern Africa) are cloud-free more than 80% of the year, which exposes these regions to larger amounts of UV radiation than at comparable latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Regions over rain-forests, jungle areas, Europe and Russia, the bands surrounding the Arctic and Antarctic regions, and many ocean areas have significant cloud cover (R greater than 15%) more than half of each year. In the low to middle latitudes, the areas with the heaviest cloud cover (highest reflectivity for most of the year) are the forest areas of northern South America, southern Central America, the jungle areas of equatorial Africa, and high mountain regions such as the Himalayas or the Andes. The TOMS reflectivity data show the presence of large nearly clear ocean areas and the effects of the major ocean currents on cloud production.

Herman, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1999

A Combined Length-of-Day Series Spanning 1832-1997

The Earth's rotation is not constant but exhibits minute changes on all observable time scales ranging from subdaily to secular. This rich spectrum of observed Earth rotation changes reflects the rich variety of astronomical and geophysical phenomena that are causing the Earth's rotation to change, including, but not limited to, ocean and solid body tides, atmospheric wind and pressure changes, oceanic current and sea level height changes, post-glacial rebound, and torques acting at the core-mantle boundary. In particular, the decadal-scale variations of the Earth's rotation are thought to be largely caused by interactions between the Earth's outer core and mantle. Comparing the inferred Earth rotation variations caused by the various core-mantle interactions to observed variations requires Earth rotation observations spanning decades, if not centuries. During the past century many different techniques have been used to observe the Earth's rotation. By combining the individual Earth rotation series determined by each of these techniques, a series of the Earth's rotation can be obtained that is based upon independent measurements spanning the greatest possible time interval. In this study, independent observations of the Earth's rotation are combined to generate a length-of-day series spanning 1832-1997. The observations combined include lunar occultation measurements spanning 1832-1955, optical astrometric measurements spanning 1956-1982, lunar laser ranging measurements spanning 1970-1997, and very long baseline interferometric measurements spanning 1978-1998. These series are combined using a Kalman filter developed at JPL for just this purpose. The resulting combined length-of-day series will be presented and compared with other available length-of-day series of similar duration.

Gross, Richard S.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Remote Sensing of Global Wetland Dynamics

Although natural wetlands only cover about 4% of the earth's ice-free land surface, they are the world's largest methane (CH4) source and the only one dominated by climate. In addition, wetlands affect climate by modulating temperatures and heat fluxes, storing water, increasing evaporation, and altering the seasonality of runoff and river discharge to the oceans. Current CH4 emissions from wetlands are relatively well understood but the sensitivity of wetlands and their emissions to climate variations remains the largest uncertainty in the global CH4 cycle and could strongly influence predictions of future climate. Therefore, characterizing climate-sensitive processes prevailing in the world's wetlands is crucial to understanding and predicting physical and biogeochemical responses of wetlands to interannual and longer-term climate variations. Recent research has resulted in the first generation of models to predict methane emissions from wetlands but the models must still be applied to static data on wetland distributions. Moreover, no models currently exist to realistically predict the distribution and dynamics of wetlands themselves for the current, or any other, climate. The dominant obstacle to modeling wetland dynamics has been lack of remote sensing techniques and data useful for characterizing quantitatively the seasonal and interannual variations of wetlands. We report on initial remote sensing studies undertaken to validate a global hydrological model linking rivers, takes and wetlands. Using a combination of SSM/I microwave and TOPEX Poseidon altimetry data sets, we developed and applied techniques to quantify inundation extent and duration for several large wetlands in tropical Africa and South America. Our initial results indicate that seasonally-inundated wetlands can be well characterized over large spatial scales and at monthly time scales using these remote sensing data. The results also confirm that currently available remote sensing products can be applied to provide crucial data to the research community modeling global hydrological and biogeochemical cycles.

Matthews, Elaine↗

NASA NTRS2001

Techniques of Validation of Aerosol and Water Vapor Retrievals From MODIS

Aerosols are extremely important for global climate studies and modeling in the quest to characterize the global radiation budget and forcing. The physical characteristics, composition, abundance, and spatial distribution and dynamics of aerosols are still very poorly known. Aerosol column optical thickness and other parameters as well as column precipitable water vapor amount are some of the main atmospheric parameters retrieved from the MODIS instrument on board the Terra satellite. To ensure the reliability of these parameters, we have embarked on a very massive validation effort. This involves cross correlation between the retrievals from the satellite data and those obtained from sunphotometer measurements at a large number of ground stations spread throughout the globe. Notable among these ground stations is a large network of over 100 stations coordinated under the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) project. Whereas MODIS retrieves the aerosol parameters throughout the globe once or twice a day during the daytime, the ground measurements cover only discrete locations of the earth, though the retrievals are done several times a day. We have devised a method to. match the MODIS and ground retrievals through spatial statistics for the MODIS data and temporal statistics for the ground data. This has produced good comparisons and has enabled the validation of MODIS aerosol and water vapor retrievals at over 100 discrete locations in various parts of the earth both over the land and over the ocean. Currently, the validation statistical data is produced routinely by the MODIS aerosol group and is even available not only for validation but also for use by the science community for short and long term studies at various parts of the earth. One important advantage is that the system can be expanded to incorporate more locations where ground measurements and other studies may be conducted at any time during the lifetime of MODIS.

Ichoku, Charles↗

NASA NTRS2004

Did the Pre-RNA World Rest Upon DNA Molecules?

The isolation of a DNA sequence that catalyzes the ligation of oligodeoxynucleotides via the formation of 3' - 5' phosphodiester linkage significance in selection experiments has been reported. Ball recently used this to discuss the possibility that natural DNA molecules may have formed in the primitive Earth leading to the origin of life. As noted by Ferris and Usher, if metabolic pathways evolved backwards, it could be argued that the biosynthesis of 2-deoxyribose from ribose suggests that RNA came from DNA. As summarized elsewhere, there are several properties of deoxyribose which could be interpreted to support the possibility that DNA-like molecules arose prior to the RNA world. For example, 2-deoxyribose is slightly more soluble than ribose (which may have been an advantage in a drying pool scenario), may have been more reactive under possible prebiotic conditions (it forms a nucleoside approx. 150 times faster than ribose with the alternative base urazole at 25 C), while it decomposes in solution (approximately 2.6 times more slowly than ribose at 100 C). Other advantages of DNA over RNA are that it has one fewer chiral center, has a greater stability at the 8.2 pH value of the current oceans, and does not has the 2'5' and 3'5' ambiguity in polymerizations. Yet, there is strong molecular biological and biochemical evidence that RNA was featured in the biology well before the last common ancestor. The presence of sugar acids, including both ribo- and deoxysugar acids, in the 4.6 Ga old Murchison meteorite suggest that both may have been available in the primitive Earth, derived from the accretion of extraterrestrial sources and/or from endogenous processes involving formaldehyde and its derivatives. However, the abiotic synthesis of deoxyribose, ribose, and other sugars from glyceraldehyde and acetaldehyde under alkaline conditions is inefficient and unespecific. Although sugars are labile compounds, the role of cyanamide or borate minerals in the stabilization of the cyclic forms of ribose and other pentoses has recently been demonstrated. Nonetheless, the assumption either RNA or DNA was the first genetic material needs to be supplemented by laboratory models demonstrating that the prebiotic synthesis of activated beta-D-(deoxy)ribonucleotides and their polymers was feasible. As of today such evidence is lacking, and there is no convincing synthesis of any nucleotide, since all model experiments produce complex mixtures of products in which there is no preferential synthesis of chiral D-nucleotides. This strongly suggests that both DNA and RNA may have been preceded by pairing structures much simpler than extant nucleic acids. It is doubtful that DNA molecules, or indeed other (de0xy)ribofuranoid oligonucleotides formed the basis of these as yet undescribed pre-RNA worlds.

Lazcano, Antonio↗

NASA NTRS2003

Bio-Optical and Geochemical Properties of the South Atlantic Subtropical Gyre

An investigation of the bio-optical properties of the South Atlantic subtropical gyre (SASG) was conducted using data primarily from the UK Atlantic Meridional Transect (AMT) program and SeaWiFS. The AMT cruises extend from the UK to the Falklands Islands (sailing on the RRS James Clark Ross) with the purpose of improving our knowledge of surface layer hydrography, biogeochemical processes, ecosystem dynamics and food webs across basin scales in the Atlantic Ocean. Two objectives of the AMT program relevant to this study are the characterization of biogeochemical provinces and the analysis of optical and pigment parameters in connection with remote sensing ocean color data. The primary focus of this NASA Technical Memorandum is on the variability of the vertical distribution of phytoplankton pigments and associated absorption properties across the SASG, and their relevance to remote sensing algorithms. Therefore, a subset of the AMT data within the SASG from all available cruises was used in the analyses. One of the challenges addressed here is the determination of the SASG geographic boundaries. One of the major problems is to reconcile the properties of biogeochemical provinces. We use water mass analysis, dynamics of ocean currents, and meridional gradients of bio-optical properties, to identify the SASG boundaries.

Signorini, S. R.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Toward an Improved Understanding of the Global Fresh Water Budget

The major components of the global fresh water cycle include the evaporation from the land and ocean surfaces, precipitation onto the Ocean and land surfaces, the net atmospheric transport of water from oceanic areas over land, and the return flow of water from the land back into the ocean. The additional components of oceanic water transport are few, principally, the mixing of fresh water through the oceanic boundary layer, transport by ocean currents, and sea ice processes. On land the situation is considerably more complex, and includes the deposition of rain and snow on land; water flow in runoff; infiltration of water into the soil and groundwater; storage of water in soil, lakes and streams, and groundwater; polar and glacial ice; and use of water in vegetation and human activities. Knowledge of the key terms in the fresh water flux budget is poor. Some components of the budget, e.g. precipitation, runoff, storage, are measured with variable accuracy across the globe. We are just now obtaining precise measurements of the major components of global fresh water storage in global ice and ground water. The easily accessible fresh water sources in rivers, lakes and snow runoff are only adequately measured in the more affluent portions of the world. presents proposals are suggesting methods of making global measurements of these quantities from space. At the same time, knowledge of the global fresh water resources under the effects of climate change is of increasing importance and the human population grows. This paper provides an overview of the state of knowledge of the global fresh water budget, evaluating the accuracy of various global water budget measuring and modeling techniques. We review the measurement capabilities of satellite instruments as compared with field validation studies and modeling approaches. Based on these analyses, and on the goal of improved knowledge of the global fresh water budget under the effects of climate change, we suggest priorities for future improvements in global fresh water budget monitoring. The priorities are based on the potential of new approaches to provide improved measurement and modeling systems, and on the need to measure and understand the potential for a speed-up of the global water cycle under the effects of climate change.

Hildebrand, Peter H.↗

NASA NTRS2007

An Overview of Climatic Elements

This Technical Publication (TP) addresses some climatic elements with emphasis on atmospheric composition, including gas radiative characteristics. Solar radiation is discussed with considerable information on the mathematical and statistical formulae. On a worldwide basis, temperature and precipitation for the globe are discussed along with interaction in drought. Also included is the simultaneous interaction with winds, humidity, and solar radiation. Volcanology gets minimum treatment. The oceans and seas are treated in chart form along with the interrelationship of oceanic currents and El Nino and La Nina, and ENSO phenomena. Upper air circulations are discussed. Various cloud formations up to 85-95 km altitude are described. Information on tornadoes and hurricanes is also included. One section is devoted to the climate physical-chemical elements. A short discussion is given on the importance for the quality of data and/or information in descriptions of the climate. This TP presents only an overview or survey of these and other various climatic elements.

Crutcher, H. L.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Solutions Network Formulation Report. Integrating Salinity Measurements from Aquarius into the Harmful Algal Blooms Observing System

This Candidate Solution suggests the use of Aquarius sea surface salinity measurements to improve the NOAA/NCDDC (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration s National Coastal Data Development Center) HABSOS (Harmful Algal Blooms Observing System) DST (decision support tool) by enhancing development and movement forecasts of HAB events as well as potential species identification. In the proposed configuration, recurring salinity measurements from the Aquarius mission would augment HABSOS sea surface temperature and in situ ocean current measurements. Thermohaline circulation observations combined with in situ measurements increase the precision of HAB event movement forecasting. These forecasts allow coastal managers and public health officials to make more accurate and timely warnings to the public and to better direct science teams to event sites for collection and further measurements.

Anderson, Daniel↗

NASA NTRS2010

NASA Tech Briefs, March 2010

Topics covered include: Software Tool Integrating Data Flow Diagrams and Petri Nets; Adaptive Nulling for Interferometric Detection of Planets; Reducing the Volume of NASA Earth-Science Data; Reception of Multiple Telemetry Signals via One Dish Antenna; Space-Qualified Traveling-Wave Tube; Smart Power Supply for Battery-Powered Systems; Parallel Processing of Broad-Band PPM Signals; Inexpensive Implementation of Many Strain Gauges; Constant-Differential-Pressure Two-Fluid Accumulator; Inflatable Tubular Structures Rigidized with Foams; Power Generator with Thermo-Differential Modules; Mechanical Extraction of Power From Ocean Currents and Tides; Nitrous Oxide/Paraffin Hybrid Rocket Engines; Optimized Li-Ion Electrolytes Containing Fluorinated Ester Co-Solvents; Probabilistic Multi-Factor Interaction Model for Complex Material Behavior; Foldable Instrumented Bits for Ultrasonic/Sonic Penetrators; Compact Rare Earth Emitter Hollow Cathode; High-Precision Shape Control of In-Space Deployable Large Membrane/Thin-Shell Reflectors; Rapid Active Sampling Package; Miniature Lightweight Ion Pump; Cryogenic Transport of High-Pressure-System Recharge Gas; Water-Vapor Raman Lidar System Reaches Higher Altitude; Compact Ku-Band T/R Module for High-Resolution Radar Imaging of Cold Land Processes; Wide-Field-of-View, High-Resolution, Stereoscopic Imager; Electrical Capacitance Volume Tomography with High-Contrast Dielectrics; Wavefront Control and Image Restoration with Less Computing; Polarization Imaging Apparatus; Stereoscopic Machine-Vision System Using Projected Circles; Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool; Performance Bounds on Two Concatenated, Interleaved Codes; Parameterizing Coefficients of a POD-Based Dynamical System; Confidence-Based Feature Acquisition; Algorithm for Lossless Compression of Calibrated Hyperspectral Imagery; Universal Decoder for PPM of any Order; Algorithm for Stabilizing a POD-Based Dynamical System; Mission Reliability Estimation for Repairable Robot Teams; Processing AIRS Scientific Data Through Level 3; Web-Based Requesting and Scheduling Use of Facilities; AutoGen Version 5.0; Time-Tag Generation Script; PPM Receiver Implemented in Software; Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer Product File Readers; Reporting Differences Between Spacecraft Sequence Files; Coordinating "Execute" Data for ISS and Space Shuttle; Database for Safety-Oriented Tracking of Chemicals; Apparatus for Cold, Pressurized Biogeochemical Experiments; Growing B Lymphocytes in a Three-Dimensional Culture System; Tissue-like 3D Assemblies of Human Broncho-Epithelial Cells; Isolation of Resistance-Bearing Microorganisms; Oscillating Cell Culture Bioreactor; and Liquid Cooling/Warming Garment.

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NASA NTRS2012

Modeling Programs Increase Aircraft Design Safety

Flutter may sound like a benign word when associated with a flag in a breeze, a butterfly, or seaweed in an ocean current. When used in the context of aerodynamics, however, it describes a highly dangerous, potentially deadly condition. Consider the case of the Lockheed L-188 Electra Turboprop, an airliner that first took to the skies in 1957. Two years later, an Electra plummeted to the ground en route from Houston to Dallas. Within another year, a second Electra crashed. In both cases, all crew and passengers died. Lockheed engineers were at a loss as to why the planes wings were tearing off in midair. For an answer, the company turned to NASA s Transonic Dynamics Tunnel (TDT) at Langley Research Center. At the time, the newly renovated wind tunnel offered engineers the capability of testing aeroelastic qualities in aircraft flying at transonic speeds near or just below the speed of sound. (Aeroelasticity is the interaction between aerodynamic forces and the structural dynamics of an aircraft or other structure.) Through round-the-clock testing in the TDT, NASA and industry researchers discovered the cause: flutter. Flutter occurs when aerodynamic forces acting on a wing cause it to vibrate. As the aircraft moves faster, certain conditions can cause that vibration to multiply and feed off itself, building to greater amplitudes until the flutter causes severe damage or even the destruction of the aircraft. Flutter can impact other structures as well. Famous film footage of the Tacoma Narrows Bridge in Washington in 1940 shows the main span of the bridge collapsing after strong winds generated powerful flutter forces. In the Electra s case, faulty engine mounts allowed a type of flutter known as whirl flutter, generated by the spinning propellers, to transfer to the wings, causing them to vibrate violently enough to tear off. Thanks to the NASA testing, Lockheed was able to correct the Electra s design flaws that led to the flutter conditions and return the aircraft to safe flight. Today, all aircraft must have a flutter boundary 15 percent beyond the aircraft s expected maximum speed to ensure that flutter conditions are not encountered in flight. NASA continues to support research in new aircraft designs to improve knowledge of aeroelasticity and flutter. Through platforms such as Dryden Flight Research Center s Active Aeroelastic Wing (AAW) research aircraft, the Agency researches methods for in-flight validation of predictions and for controlling and taking advantage of aeroelastic conditions to enhance aircraft performance.

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NASA NTRS2013

Collaborative Platforms Aid Emergency Decision Making

Terra. Aqua. Cloudsat. Landsat. NASA runs and partners in many missions dedicated to monitoring the Earth, and the tools used in these missions continuously return data on everything from shifts in temperature to cloud formation to pollution levels over highways. The data are of great scientific value, but they also provide information that can play a critical role in decision making during times of crisis. Real-time developments in weather, wind, ocean currents, and numerous other conditions can have a significant impact on the way disasters, both natural and human-caused, unfold. "NASA has long recognized the need to make its data from real-time sources compatible and accessible for the purposes of decision making," says Michael Goodman, who was Disasters Program manager at NASA Headquarters from 2009-2012. "There are practical applications of NASA Earth science data, and we d like to accelerate the use of those applications." One of the main obstacles standing in the way of eminently practical data is the fact that the data from different missions are collected, formatted, and stored in different ways. Combining data sets in a way that makes them useful for decision makers has proven to be a difficult task. And while the need for a collaborative platform is widely recognized, very few have successfully made it work. Dave Jones, founder and CEO of StormCenter Communications Inc., which consults with decision makers to prepare for emergencies, says that "when I talk to public authorities, they say, If I had a nickel for every time someone told me they had a common operating platform, I d be rich. But one thing we ve seen over the years is that no one has been able to give end users the ability to ingest NASA data sets and merge them with their own."

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NASA NTRS2018

Sea-Level Rise: Projections for Maryland 2018

In fulfillment of requirements of the Maryland Commission on Climate Change Act of 2015, this report provides updated projections of the amount of sea-level rise relative to Maryland coastal lands that is expected into the next century. These projections represent the consensus of an Expert Group drawn from the Mid-Atlantic region. The framework for these projections is explicitly tied to the projections of global sea-level rise included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment (2014) and incorporates regional factors such as subsidence, distance from melting glaciers and polar ice sheets, and ocean currents. The probability distribution of estimates of relative sea-level rise from the baseline year of 2000 are provided over time and, after 2050, for three different greenhouse gas emissions pathways: Growing Emissions (RCP8.5), Stabilized Emissions (RCP4.5), and meeting the Paris Agreement (RCP2.6). This framework has been recently used in developing relative sea-level rise projections for California, Oregon, Washington, New Jersey, and Delaware as well as several metropolitan areas. The Likely range (66% probability) of the relative rise of mean sea level expected in Maryland between 2000 and 2050 is 0.8 to 1.6 feet, with about a one-in-twenty chance it could exceed 2.0 feet and about a one-in-one hundred chance it could exceed 2.3 feet. Later this century, rates of sea-level rise increasingly depend on the future pathway of global emissions of greenhouse gases during the next sixty years. If emissions continue to grow well into the second half of the 21st century, the Likely range of sea-level rise experienced in Maryland is 2.0 to 4.2 feet over this century, two to four times the sea-level rise experienced during the 20th century. Moreover, there is a one-in-twenty chance that it could exceed 5.2 feet. If, on the other hand, global society were able to bring net greenhouse gas emissions to zero in time to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement and reduce emissions sufficient to limit the increase in global mean temperature to less than 2°Celsius over pre-industrial levels, the Likely range for 2100 is 1.2 to 3.0 feet, with a one-in-twenty chance that it would exceed 3.7 feet. The difference in sea-level rise between these contrasting scenarios would diverge even more during the next century, with the failure to reduce emissions in the near term resulting in much greater sea-level rise 100 years from now. Moreover, recent research suggests that, without imminent and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the loss of polar ice sheets-and thus the rate of sea-level rise-may be more rapid than assumed in these projections, particularly under the Growing Emissions scenario. These probabilistic sea-level rise projections can and should be used in planning and regulation, infrastructure siting and design, estimation of changes in tidal range and storm surge, developing inundation mapping tools, and adaptation strategies for high-tide flooding and saltwater intrusion.

Boesch, D. F.↗