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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Estimation of hydraulic conductivity in a watershed using sparse multi-source data via Gaussian process regression and Bayesian experimental design

Enhanced water management systems depend on accurate estimation of subsurface hydraulic properties. However, geologic formations can vary significantly, so information from a single source (e.g., widely spaced boreholes) is insufficient in characterizing subsurface aquifer properties. Therefore, multiple sources of information are needed to complement the hydrogeology understanding of a region. Here, this study presents a numerical framework in which information from different measurement sources is combined to characterize the 3D random field in a multi-fidelity prediction model. Coupled with the model, a Bayesian experimental design was used to determine the best future sampling locations. The Upper Sangamon watershed in east-central Illinois was selected as the case study site, where the multi-fidelity Gaussian process model was used to estimate the hydraulic conductivity in the region of interest. Multi-source observation data were obtained from electrical resistivity and borehole pumping tests. The accuracy of the model prediction is dependent on the locations and the distribution of both high- and low-fidelity data. Furthermore, the multi-fidelity model was compared with the single-fidelity model. The uncertainties and confidence in the measurements and parameter estimates were quantified and used to design future cycles of data collection to further improve the confidence intervals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bridging Hydrological Ensemble Simulation and Learning Using Deep Neural Operators

Ensemble-based simulation and learning (ESnL) has long been used in hydrology for parameter inference, but computational demands of process-based ESnL can be quite high. To address this issue, we propose a deep neural operator learning approach. Neural operators are generic machine learning algorithms that can learn functional mappings between infinite-dimensional spaces, providing a highly flexible tool for scientific machine learning. Our approach is built upon DeepONet, a specific deep neural operator, and is designed to address several common problems in hydrology, namely, model parameter estimation, prediction at ungaged locations, and uncertainty quantification. Here we demonstrate the effectiveness of our DeepONet-based workflow using an existing large model ensemble created for an eastern U.S. watershed that is instrumented with 10 streamflow gages. Results suggest DeepONet achieves high efficiency in learning an ML surrogate model from the model ensemble, with the modified Kling-Gupta Efficiency exceeding 0.9 on holdout test sets. Parameter inference, carried out using the trained DeepONet surrogate model and genetic algorithm, also yields robust results. Additionally, we formulate and train a separate DeepONet model for physics-informed, seq-to-seq streamflow forecasting, which further reduces biases in the pre-trained DeepONet surrogate model. While this study focuses primarily on a single watershed, our approach is general and may be extended to enable learning from model ensembles across multiple basins or models. Thus, this research represents a significant contribution to the application of hybrid machine learning in hydrology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Elastic Moduli: a Tool for Understanding Chemical Bonding and Thermal Transport in Thermoelectric Materials

Abstract The elastic behavior of a material can be a powerful tool to decipher thermal transport. In thermoelectrics, measuring the elastic moduli—directly tied to sound velocity—is critical to understand trends in lattice thermal conductivity, as well as study bond anharmonicity and phase transitions, given the sensitivity of elastic moduli to the chemical bonding. In this review, we introduce the basics of elasticity and explain the origin of high‐temperature lattice softening from a bonding perspective. We then review elasticity data throughout classes of thermoelectrics, and explore trends in sound velocity, anharmonicity, and thermal conductivity. We reveal how experimental sound velocities can improve the accuracy of common thermal conductivity models and present a critical discussion of Grüneisen parameter estimates from elastic moduli. Readers will be equipped with tools to leverage elasticity measurements or calculations to accurately interpret thermal transport trends.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Automated Bayesian high-throughput estimation of plasma temperature and density from emission spectroscopy

Here, this paper introduces a novel approach for automated high-throughput estimation of plasma temperature and density using atomic emission spectroscopy, integrating Bayesian inference with sophisticated physical models. We provide an in-depth examination of Bayesian methods applied to the complexities of plasma diagnostics, supported by a robust framework of physical and measurement models. Our methodology is demonstrated using experimental observations in the field of magneto-inertial fusion, focusing on individual and sequential shot analyses of the Plasma Liner Experiment at LANL. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in enhancing the accuracy and reliability of plasma parameter estimation and in using the analysis to reveal the deep hidden structure in the data. This study not only offers a new perspective of plasma analysis but also paves the way for further research and applications in nuclear instrumentation and related domains.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermal Experiments for Fractured Rock Characterization: Theoretical Analysis and Inverse Modeling

Abstract Field‐scale properties of fractured rocks play a crucial role in many subsurface applications, yet methodologies for identification of the statistical parameters of a discrete fracture network (DFN) are scarce. We present an inversion technique to infer two such parameters, fracture density and fractal dimension, from cross‐borehole thermal experiments data. It is based on a particle‐based heat‐transfer model, whose evaluation is accelerated with a deep neural network (DNN) surrogate that is integrated into a grid search. The DNN is trained on a small number of the heat‐transfer model runs and predicts the cumulative density function of the thermal field. The latter is used to compute fine posterior distributions of the (to be estimated) parameters. Our synthetic experiments reveal that fracture density is well constrained by data, while fractal dimension is harder to determine. Adding nonuniform prior information related to the DFN connectivity improves the inference of this parameter.

Zhou, Zitong↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multivariate degradation modeling using generalized cauchy process and application in life prediction of dye-sensitized solar cells

Recently, the Generalized Cauchy (GC) process has been applied to capture a Long Memory (LM) phenomenon in product degradation modeling and life prediction. Compared with the traditional fractional Brownian motion that captures the LM using a single Hurst parameter, the GC process has two free parameters (Hurst and fractal dimension parameters) that flexibly capture both global LM and local irregularity. However, all existing GC-based degradation models are for a single Degradation Characteristic (DC). In this article, motivated by a real degradation problem of dye-sensitized solar cells that jointly exhibits multiple DCs, global LM, local irregularity and DC-wise cross-correlation, we propose a novel GC-based Multivariate Degradation Model (GC-MDM) to simultaneously capture the aforementioned effects. A maximum likelihood estimation approach is developed to estimate parameters of the GC-MDM. Subsequently, product life prediction based on the GC-MDM is developed. The proposed GC-MDM is validated through a simulation study and a physical experiment of dye-sensitized solar cells. Furthermore, results show that the proposed GC-MDM fundamentally improves the life prediction accuracy in comparison with conventional degradation models which significantly misestimate the uncertainty of product life.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Are light curve classification metrics good proxies for SN Ia cosmological constraining power?

Context. When selecting a light curve classifier for use as part of a photometric supernova Ia (SN Ia) cosmological analysis, it is common to make decisions based on metrics of classification performance, such as the contamination within the photometrically classified SN Ia sample, rather than a measure of cosmological constraining power. If the former is an appropriate proxy for the latter, this practice would eliminate the computational expense of a full cosmology forecast in the analysis pipeline design process. Aims. This study tests the assumption that light curve classification metrics are an appropriate proxy for cosmology metrics. Methods. We emulated photometric SN Ia cosmology light curve samples with controlled contamination rates of individual contaminant classes and evaluated each of them under a set of classification metrics. We then derived cosmological parameter constraints from all samples under two common analysis approaches and quantified the impact of contamination by each contaminant class on the resulting cosmological parameter estimates. Results. We observe that cosmology metrics are sensitive to both the contamination rate and the class of the contaminating population, whereas the classification metrics are shown to be insensitive to the latter. Conclusions. Based on these findings, we discourage any exclusive reliance on light curve classification-based metrics for analysis design decisions, which (counterintuitively) include but are not limited to the classifier choice. Instead, we recommend optimising science analysis pipeline design choices using a metric of the information gained about the physical parameters of interest.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Microkinetic Modeling: A Tool for Rational Catalyst Design

The design of heterogeneous catalysts relies on understanding the fundamental surface kinetics that controls catalyst performance, and microkinetic modeling is a tool that can help the researcher in streamlining the process of catalyst design. Microkinetic modeling is used to identify critical reaction intermediates and rate-determining elementary reactions, thereby providing vital information for designing an improved catalyst. In this review, we summarize general procedures for developing microkinetic models using reaction kinetics parameters obtained from experimental data, theoretical correlations, and quantum chemical calculations. We examine the methods required to ensure the thermodynamic consistency of the microkinetic model. We describe procedures required for parameter adjustments to account for the heterogeneity of the catalyst and the inherent errors in parameter estimation. We discuss the analysis of microkinetic models to determine the rate determining reactions using the degree of rate control and reversibility of each elementary reaction. We introduce incorporation of Brønsted–Evans–Polanyi relations and scaling relations in microkinetic models and the effects of these relations on catalytic performance and formation of volcano curves. We review the analysis of reaction schemes in terms of the maximum rate of elementary reactions, and we outline a procedure to identify kinetically significant transition states and adsorbed intermediates. Here, we explore the application of generalized rate expressions for the prediction of optimal binding energies of important surface intermediates and to estimate the extent of potential rate improvement. We also explore the application of microkinetic modeling in homogeneous catalysis, electro-catalysis, and transient reaction kinetics. We conclude by highlighting the challenges and opportunities in the application of microkinetic modeling for catalyst design.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

A flexible event reconstruction based on machine learning and likelihood principles

Event reconstruction is a central step in many particle physics experiments, turning detector observables into parameter estimates; for example estimating the energy of an interaction given the sensor readout of a detector. A corresponding likelihood function is often intractable, and approximations need to be constructed. Here, in our work, we first show how the full likelihood for a many-sensor detector can be broken apart into smaller terms, and secondly how we can train neural networks to approximate all terms solely based on forward simulation. Our technique results in a fast, flexible, and close-to-optimal surrogate model proportional to the likelihood and can be used in conjunction with standard inference techniques allowing for a consistent treatment of uncertainties. We illustrate our technique for parameter inference in neutrino telescopes based on maximum likelihood and Bayesian posterior sampling. Given its great flexibility, we also showcase our method for geometry optimization enabling to learn optimal detector designs. Lastly, we apply our method to realistic simulation of a ton-scale water-based liquid scintillator detector.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

The GMRT archive atomic gas survey – II. Mass modelling and dark matter halo properties across late-type spirals

Studying the kinematics and mass modelling of galaxies from H i 21 cm data provides valuable insights into the properties of both the baryonic components and the dark matter halo in nearby galaxies. Despite many observational studies, mass modelling of galaxies remains challenging due to different limitations. For example, most of the previous studies involving mass modelling are based on rotation curves derived from 2D velocity fields from H i or H α spectroscopic observation which are often affected by beam smearing and projection effect. However, kinematic modelling done by fitting the ‘Tilted ring model’ to 3D data cube is not affected by these issues. In this study, we present and compare 3D kinematic modelling of a pilot sample of 11 galaxies from the GMRT archive atomic gas survey (GARCIA) using two different publicly available pipelines. We model the observed H i rotation curve using 3.6-μm infrared data and SDSS r-band data for stellar contribution, H i surface density profile for gas, and Navarro–Frenk–White profile for dark matter halo; and employ the Markov chain Monte Carlo optimization method for parameter estimation. Further, to validate our analysis, we revisit important scaling relations, e.g. the M gas –M star relation, M star –M halo relation, M gas –M halo relation and Baryonic Tully–Fisher relation. Here, the scaling relations from our analysis are broadly consistent with that reported in the literature. A larger sample of galaxies from GARCIA in the near future will allow studying these scaling relations in greater details.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Breaking the degeneracy between polarization efficiency and cosmological parameters in CMB experiments

Accurate cosmological parameter estimates using polarization data of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) put stringent requirements on map calibration, as highlighted in the recent results from the Planck satellite. In this paper, we point out that a model-dependent determination of polarization calibration can be achieved by the joint fit of the temperature-E-mode cross-power spectrum (TE) and E-mode auto-power spectrum (EE). This provides a valuable cross-check to band-averaged polarization efficiency measurements determined using other approaches. We demonstrate that, in ΛCDM, the combination of the TE and EE constrain polarization calibration with sub-percent uncertainty with Planck data and 2% uncertainty with sptpol data. We arrive at similar conclusions when extending ΛCDM to include the amplitude of lensing A L , the number of relativistic species N eff , or the sum of the neutrino masses Σm ν . Furthermore, the uncertainties on cosmological parameters are minimally impacted when marginalizing over polarization calibration, except, as can be expected, for the uncertainty on the amplitude of the primordial scalar power spectrum ln(10 10 A s ), which increases by 20–50%. However, this information can be fully recovered by adding temperature auto-power spectrum (TT) information. For current and future ground-based experiments, SPT-3G and CMB-S4, we forecast the cosmological parameter uncertainties to be minimally degraded when marginalizing over polarization calibration parameters. In addition, CMB-S4 could constrain its polarization calibration at the level of ~0.2% by combining TE and EE, and reach ~0.06% by also including TT. We therefore conclude that relying on calibrating against Planck polarization maps, whose statistical uncertainty is limited to ~0.5%, would be insufficient for upcoming experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

FY2022 Progress on Imbibition Testing in Containment Science

Estimation of two-phase fluid flow properties is important to understand and predict water and gas movement through the vadose zone for agricultural, hydrogeological, and engineering applications, such as for vapor-phase contaminant transport and/or containment of noble gases in the subsurface. In this second progress report of FY22, we present two ongoing activities related to imbibition testing on volcanic rock samples. We present the development of a new analytical solution predicting the temperature response observed during imbibition into dry samples, as discussed in our previous first progress report for FY22. We also illustrate the use of a multi-modal capillary pressure distribution to simulate both early- and late-time imbibition data collected on tuff core that can exhibit multiple pore types. These FY22 imbibition tests were conducted for an extended period (i.e., far beyond the time required for the wetting front to reach the top of the sample), which is necessary for parameter estimation and characterization of two different pore types within the samples.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Catalog-level blinding on the bispectrum for DESI-like galaxy surveys

We evaluate the performance of the catalog-level blind analysis technique (blinding) presented in Brieden et al. (2020) in the context of a fixed template power spectrum and bispectrum analysis. This blinding scheme, which is tailored for galaxy redshift surveys similar to the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), has two components: the so-called “AP blinding” (concerning the dilation parameters α$_{∥}$, α$_{⊥}$) and “RSD blinding” (redshift space distortions, affecting the growth rate parameter f). Through extensive testing, including checks for the RSD part in cubic boxes, the impact of AP blinding on mocks with realistic survey sky coverage, and the implementation of a full AP+RSD blinding pipeline, our analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of the technique in preserving the integrity of cosmological parameter estimation when the analysis includes the bispectrum statistic. We emphasize the critical role of sophisticated — and difficult to accidentally unblind — blinding methods in precision cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

ECLEIRS: Exact conservation law embedded identification of reduced states for parameterized nonlinear conservation laws from sparse and noisy data

Multi-query applications such as parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification and design optimization for parameterized partial differential equation (PDE) systems are expensive. While reduced/latent state dynamics approaches for parameterized PDEs offer a viable alternative, these approaches rely on high-quality data and struggle with highly sparse spatiotemporal noisy measurements typically obtained from experiments. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that these models satisfy governing physical conservation laws. In this article, we propose a reduced state dynamics approach, referred to as ECLEIRS, that embeds exact conservation in the solution and flux representation by utilizing a space-time divergence-free neural network formulation. We compare ECLEIRS with other reduced state dynamics approaches, those that do not enforce any physical constraints and those with physics-informed loss functions, for three shock-propagation problems: 1-D advection, 1-D Burgers and 2-D Euler equations. In conclusion, the numerical experiments conducted in this study demonstrate that ECLEIRS provides the most accurate prediction of dynamics for unseen parameters even in the presence of highly sparse and noisy data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Efficient method for estimating the time evolution of the proto-neutron star mass and radius from a supernova neutrino signal

In this paper, we present a novel method to estimate the time evolution of the proto-neutron star (PNS) structure from the neutrino signal in a core-collapse supernova (CCSN). Employing recent results from multidimensional CCSN simulations, we delve into a relation between the total emitted neutrino energy (TONE) and PNS mass/radius, and we find that they are strongly correlated with each other. We fit the relation by simple polynomial functions connecting the TONE to the mass and radius of the PNS as a function of time. By combining another fitting function representing the correlation between the TONE and the cumulative number of events at each neutrino observatory, the PNS mass and radius can be retrieved from purely observed neutrino data. We demonstrate retrievals of PNS mass and radius from mock data of the neutrino signal, and we assess the capability of our proposed method. While underlining the limitations of the method, we also discuss the importance of the joint analysis with the gravitational wave signal. This would reduce uncertainties of parameter estimations in our method, and may narrow down the possible neutrino oscillation model. The proposed method is a very easy and inexpensive computation, which will be useful in real data analysis of the CCSN neutrino signal.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

PRISM3D: a 3-D reference seismic model for Iberia and adjacent areas

SUMMARY We present PRISM3D, a 3-D reference seismic model of P- and S-wave velocities for Iberia and adjacent areas. PRISM3D results from the combination of the most up-to-date earth models available for the region. It extends horizontally from 15°W to 5°E in longitude, 34°N to 46°N in latitude and vertically from 3.5 km above to 200 km below sea level, and is modelled on a regular grid with 10 and 0.5 km of grid node spacing in the horizontal and vertical directions, respectively. It was designed using models inferred from local and teleseismic body-wave tomography, earthquake and ambient noise surface wave tomography, receiver function analysis and active source experiments. It includes two interfaces, namely the topography/bathymetry and the Mohorovičić (Moho) discontinuity. The Moho was modelled from previously published receiver function analysis and deep seismic sounding results. To that end we used a probabilistic surface reconstruction algorithm that allowed to extract the mean of the Moho depth surface along with its associated standard deviation, which provides a depth uncertainty estimate. The Moho depth model is in good agreement with previously published models, although it presents slightly sharper gardients in orogenic areas such as the Pyrenees or the Betic-Rif system. Crustal and mantle P- and S-wave wave speed grids were built separately on each side of the Moho depth surface by weighted average of existing models, thus allowing to realistically render the speed gradients across that interface. The associated weighted standard deviation was also calculated, which provides an uncertainty estimation on the average wave speed values at any point of the grid. At shallow depths (<10 km), low P and S wave speeds and high VP/VS are observed in offshore basins, while the Iberian Massif, which covers a large part of western Iberia, appears characterized by a rather flat Moho, higher than average VP and VS and low VP/VS. Conversely, the Betic-Rif system seems to be associated with low VP and VS, combined with high VP/VS in comparison to the rest of the study area. The most prominent feature of the mantle is the well known high wave speed anomaly related to the Alboran slab imaged in various mantle tomography studies. The consistency of PRISM3D with previous work is verified by comparing it with two recent studies, with which it shows a good general agreement.The impact of the new 3-D model is illustrated through a simple synthetic experiment, which shows that the lateral variations of the wave speed can produce traveltime differences ranging from –1.5 and 1.5 s for P waves and from –2.5 and 2.5 s for S waves at local to regional distances. Such values are far larger than phase picking uncertainties and would likely affect earthquake hypocentral parameter estimations. The new 3-D model thus provides a basis for regional studies including earthquake source studies, Earth structure investigations and geodynamic modelling of Iberia and its surroundings.

Arroucau, P.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fast, differentiable, and extensible big bang nucleosynthesis package

Here, we introduce light isotope nucleosynthesis with JAX (LINX), a new differentiable public big bang nucleosynthesis code designed for fast parameter estimation. By leveraging JAX, LINX achieves both speed and differentiability, enabling the use of Bayesian inference, including gradient-based methods. We discuss the formalism used in LINX for rapid primordial elemental abundance predictions and give examples of how LINX can be used. When combined with differentiable cosmic microwave background power spectrum emulators, LINX can be used for joint cosmic microwave background and big bang nucleosynthesis analyses without requiring extensive computational resources, including on personal hardware.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Design and Development of Novel Equiatomic Refractory Multi Principal elemental Alloys Based on MoNbTi System for Use in Irradiation Environments

Multi Principal Elemental Alloys (MPEA) have emerged as promising materials for next-generation nuclear reactors due to their exceptional irradiation resistance. Eight equiatomic MPEA based on the MoNbTi system, comprising of elements with low thermal neutron absorption cross-sections were explored using a combined approach employing empirical parameter estimations, and CALPHAD simulations by which the phases and elemental segregation observed in all the alloys in the as-cast state were predicted. Solution heat treatment at 1500°C transformed five alloys into single-phase matrix materials, enhancing homogeneity and reducing hardness. The densities of the alloys ranged between 6.47 to 7.68 g/cm3, hardness between 472 and 656 VHN, Young’s modulus between 142 GPa to 169 GPa, shear modulus between 54 GPa and 62 GPa, bulk modulus between 117 GPa to 194 GPa and Poisson’s ratio between 0.3 to 0.35. The in-situ high temperature Xray diffraction results, differential scanning calorimetry and dilatometry results up to 1000°C suggested the high temperature phase stability of the MPEA. Subsequent ageing heat treatment at 800 and 1000 oC for 96 hours revealed significant secondary phase precipitation in MoNbTiZr, MoNbTiZrV, and MoNbTiCrA. Oxidation studies at 800 oC for 24 hours in air revealed superior oxidation resistance and cubic rate law dependence in Cr containing MPEA especially in MoNbTiCrAl, while severe mass gain resulting in total disintegration and exfoliation in MoNbTiZr and MoNbTiZrV. This comprehensive study underscores the potential of novel MPEA as promising materials for advanced nuclear reactor applications, shedding light on their microstructural control, mechanical properties, thermal stability, and oxidation resistance.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗