Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “performance proxy”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Thread-level parallelization and optimization of NWChem for the Intel MIC architecture

In the multicore era it was possible to exploit the increase in on-chip parallelism by simply running multiple MPI processes per chip. Unfortunately, manycore processors' greatly increased thread- and data-level parallelism coupled with a reduced memory capacity demand an altogether different approach. In this paper we explore augmenting two NWChem modules, triples correction of the CCSD(T) and Fock matrix construction, with OpenMP in order that they might run efficiently on future manycore architectures. As the next NERSC machine will be a self-hosted Intel MIC (Xeon Phi) based supercomputer, we leverage an existing MIC testbed at NERSC to evaluate our experiments. In order to proxy the fact that future MIC machines will not have a host processor, we run all of our experiments in native mode. We found that while straightforward application of OpenMP to the deep loop nests associated with the tensor contractions of CCSD(T) was sufficient in attaining high performance, significant e ort was required to safely and efeciently thread the TEXAS integral package when constructing the Fock matrix. Ultimately, our new MPI+OpenMP hybrid implementations attain up to 65× better performance for the triples part of the CCSD(T) due in large part to the fact that the limited on-card memory limits the existing MPI implementation to a single process per card. Additionally, we obtain up to 1.6× better performance on Fock matrix constructions when compared with the best MPI implementations running multiple processes per card.

CCSD(T)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data from A Mass Spectrometry-Based High-Throughput Screening Method for Engineering Fatty Acid Synthases with Improved Production of Medium Chain Fatty Acids

Microbial cell factories have been extensively engineered to produce free fatty acids (FFAs) as key components of crucial nutrients, soaps, industrial chemicals, and fuels. However, our ability to control the composition of microbially synthesized FFAs is still limited, particularly, for producing medium‐chain fatty acids (MCFAs). This is mainly due to the lack of high‐throughput approaches for FFA analysis to engineer enzymes with desirable product specificity. Here we report a mass spectrometry (MS)‐based method for rapid profiling of MCFAs in Saccharomyces cerevisiae by using membrane lipids as a proxy. In particular, matrix‐assisted laser desorption/ionization time‐of‐flight (MALDI‐ToF) MS was used to detect shorter acyl chain phosphatidylcholines from membrane lipids and a higher m/z peak ratio at 730 and 758 was used as an indication for improved MCFA production. This colony‐based method can be performed at a rate of ~2 s per sample, representing a substantial improvement over gas chromatography‐MS (typically >30 min per sample) as the gold standard method for FFA detection. To demonstrate the power of this method, we performed site‐saturation mutagenesis of the yeast fatty acid synthase and identified nine missense mutations that resulted in improved MCFA production relative to the wild‐type strain. Colony‐based MALDI‐ToF MS screening provides an effective approach for engineering microbial fatty acid compositions in a high‐throughput manner.

Conversion↗
DOE OSTI2014

Thread-Level Parallelization and Optimization of NWChem for the Intel MIC Architecture

In the multicore era it was possible to exploit the increase in on-chip parallelism by simply running multiple MPI processes per chip. Unfortunately, manycore processors' greatly increased thread- and data-level parallelism coupled with a reduced memory capacity demand an altogether different approach. In this paper we explore augmenting two NWChem modules, triples correction of the CCSD(T) and Fock matrix construction, with OpenMP in order that they might run efficiently on future manycore architectures. As the next NERSC machine will be a self-hosted Intel MIC (Xeon Phi) based supercomputer, we leverage an existing MIC testbed at NERSC to evaluate our experiments. In order to proxy the fact that future MIC machines will not have a host processor, we run all of our experiments in tt native mode. We found that while straightforward application of OpenMP to the deep loop nests associated with the tensor contractions of CCSD(T) was sufficient in attaining high performance, significant effort was required to safely and efficiently thread the TEXAS integral package when constructing the Fock matrix. Ultimately, our new MPI OpenMP hybrid implementations attain up to 65x better performance for the triples part of the CCSD(T) due in large part to the fact that the limited on-card memory limits the existing MPI implementation to a single process per card. Additionally, we obtain up to 1.6x better performance on Fock matrix constructions when compared with the best MPI implementations running multiple processes per card.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of lean, efficient, and fast physics-framed deep-learning-based proxy models for subsurface carbon storage

In this work, we present deep-learning-based surrogate models for CCUS developed with four different algorithms and a physics-framed two-phase flow problem involving displacement of water by CO 2 . The deep-learning models were trained using 3D datasets describing the pressure plume, CO 2 saturation plume, and water extraction rate generated by numerical simulation. The hyperparameters defining the architecture of the neural networks were optimized to determine the slimmest network size and training parameters that give the most efficient performance at the least training cost. To develop a robust model that closely mimics the governing physical laws, the discretized form of the two-phase fluid transport equation was used to formulate the supervised deep-learning task. The algorithms investigated in this study predicted the data to above 95% accuracy, with the multi-layer perceptron model demonstrating the best performance by balancing training speed, prediction time, and prediction accuracy with lean network capacity. Furthermore, the surrogate models simultaneously predict reservoir pressure and CO 2 saturation in every grid block, including the surface well extraction rate and bottomhole pressure, at all simulation times for a given static model realization in just a few seconds on a standard desktop computer. A key outcome of this study is that limits can be placed on network design parameters to avoid over designing neural networks, with associated efficiencies in training and prediction times. This is very useful because large volumes of data may be generated in CCUS projects and over-design of neural network architectures imposes penalties that are antithetical to the goal of near-real time forecasting.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

X-ray absorption spectroscopy and theoretical investigations of the effect of extended ligands in potassium organic matter interaction

Potassium (K) is an essential nutrient for plant growth, and despite its abundance in soil, most of the K is structurally bound in minerals, limiting its bioavailability and making this soil K reservoir largely inaccessible to plants. Microbial biochemical weathering has been shown to be a promising pathway to sustainably increase plant available K. However, the mechanisms underpinning microbial K uptake, transformation, storage, and sharing are poorly resolved. Here, to better understand the controls on microbial K transformations, we performed K K-edge x-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy on K-organic salts, including acetate, citrate, nitrate, oxalate, and tartrate, which are frequently observed as low molecular weight organic acids secreted by soil microbes, as well as humic acid, which acts as a proxy for higher molecular weight organic acids. The organic salts display feature-rich K XANES spectra, each demonstrating numerous unique features spanning ~13 eV range across the absorption edge. In contrast, the spectra for humic acid have one broad, wide feature across the same energy range. We used a combination of time-dependent density functional theory and the Bethe–Salpeter equation based approach within the OCEAN code to simulate the experimental spectra for K-nitrate (KNO 3 ) and K-citrate [K 3 (C 6 H 5 O 7 )·H 2 O] to identify the electronic transitions that give rise to some of the outlying and unique spectral features in the organic salts. KNO 3 has both the lowest and highest lying energy features, and K 3 (C 6 H 5 O 7 )·H 2 O is produced by several soil microbes and is effective at mineral weathering. Our results analyze the K-organic salt bonding in detail to elucidate why the spectral shapes differ and indicate that the K K-edge XANES spectra are associated with the entire ligand despite similar first-shell bonding environments around the K center. The improved understanding of K bonding environments with organic ligands and their use for interpretation of the K-XANES spectra provides an important toolkit to understand how K is transformed by microbial processes and made bioavailable for plant uptake.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effect of the space weather conditions on the Earth magnetosphere soft X-ray emissivity

The aim of the study is to model and characterize the soft X-ray emissivity on the Earth magnetosphere for different space weather conditions (SWC), providing information to interpret the soft X-ray measurements of the Solar wind Magnetosphere Ionosphere Link Explorer space mission. The MHD code pluto in spherical coordinates is used to perform parametric studies with respect to the solar wind (SW) dynamic pressure (considering density and velocity effects independently) as well as the IMF intensity and orientation, predicting the soft X-ray emissivity for different SWC. The integrated soft X-ray emissivity inside the magnetosheath is calculated as a proxy of the soft X-ray emission dependencies with the SWC independently of the satellite orbit and camera line of sight. The analysis indicates fluctuations of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) orientation and magnitude may significantly affect the measured soft X-ray emission although changes in the SW dynamic pressure should be the main source of variability. The southward IMF orientation leads to the configuration with the largest soft X-ray emissivity and northward to the lowest. Strongly distorted magnetospheres explored in configurations showing SW and IMF parameters comparable to the impact of interplanetary coronal mass ejections may show a decrease of the soft X-ray emissivity as the IMF magnitude increases, explained by the strong magnetosphere compression and constriction of the magnetosheath region where the soft X-ray emissivity maximum is located. The simulations also indicate large excursions of the soft X-ray emissivity maximum inside the magnetosheath as the IMF magnitude and SW dynamic pressure fluctuate particularly for radial and ecliptic IMF orientations.

Earth↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using automated machine learning for the upscaling of gross primary productivity

Estimating gross primary productivity (GPP) over space and time is fundamental for understanding the response of the terrestrial biosphere to climate change. Eddy covariance flux towers provide in situ estimates of GPP at the ecosystem scale, but their sparse geographical distribution limits larger-scale inference. Machine learning (ML) techniques have been used to address this problem by extrapolating local GPP measurements over space using satellite remote sensing data. However, the accuracy of the regression model can be affected by uncertainties introduced by model selection, parameterization, and choice of explanatory features, among others. Recent advances in automated ML (AutoML) provide a novel automated way to select and synthesize different ML models. In this work, we explore the potential of AutoML by training three major AutoML frameworks on eddy covariance measurements of GPP at 243 globally distributed sites. We compared their ability to predict GPP and its spatial and temporal variability based on different sets of remote sensing explanatory variables. Explanatory variables from only Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance data and photosynthetically active radiation explained over 70 % of the monthly variability in GPP, while satellite-derived proxies for canopy structure, photosynthetic activity, environmental stressors, and meteorological variables from reanalysis (ERA5-Land) further improved the frameworks' predictive ability. We found that the AutoML framework Auto-sklearn consistently outperformed other AutoML frameworks as well as a classical random forest regressor in predicting GPP but with small performance differences, reaching an r 2 of up to 0.75. We deployed the best-performing framework to generate global wall-to-wall maps highlighting GPP patterns in good agreement with satellite-derived reference data. This research benchmarks the application of AutoML in GPP estimation and assesses its potential and limitations in quantifying global photosynthetic activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2017

NASA Downscaling Project: Final Report

A team of researchers from NASA Ames Research Center, Goddard Space Flight Center, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and Marshall Space Flight Center, along with university partners at UCLA, conducted an investigation to explore whether downscaling coarse resolution global climate model (GCM) predictions might provide valid insights into the regional impacts sought by decision makers. Since the computational cost of running global models at high spatial resolution for any useful climate scale period is prohibitive, the hope for downscaling is that a coarse resolution GCM provides sufficiently accurate synoptic scale information for a regional climate model (RCM) to accurately develop fine scale features that represent the regional impacts of a changing climate. As a proxy for a prognostic climate forecast model, and so that ground truth in the form of satellite and in-situ observations could be used for evaluation, the MERRA and MERRA - 2 reanalyses were used to drive the NU - WRF regional climate model and a GEOS - 5 replay. This was performed at various resolutions that were at factors of 2 to 10 higher than the reanalysis forcing. A number of experiments were conducted that varied resolution, model parameterizations, and intermediate scale nudging, for simulations over the continental US during the period from 2000 - 2010. The results of these experiments were compared to observational datasets to evaluate the output.

dynamical downsizing↗
DOE OSTI2017

Assessing chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) distribution, stocks, and fluxes in Apalachicola Bay using combined field, VIIRS ocean color, and model observations

Understanding the role of estuarine-carbon fluxes is essential to improve estimates of the global carbon budget. Dissolved organic matter (DOM) plays an important role in aquatic carbon cycling. Here, the chromophoric fraction of DOM (CDOM) can be readily detected via in situ and remotely-sensed optical measurements. DOM properties, including CDOM absorption coefficient at 412 nm (a g 412) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations were examined in Apalachicola Bay, a national estuarine research reserve located in the northeast Gulf of Mexico, using in situ and satellite observations during the spring and fall of 2015. Synoptic and accurate representation of estuarine-scale processes using satellite ocean color imagery necessitates the removal of atmospheric contribu- tion (~90%) to signals received by satellite sensors to successfully link to in situ observations. Three atmospheric correction schemes (e.g., Standard NIR correction, Iterative NIR correction, and SWIR correction) were tested first to find a suitable correction scheme for the VIIRS imagery in low to moderately turbid Apalachicola Bay. The iterative NIR correction performed well, and validation showed high correlation (R 2 = 0.95, N = 25) against in situ light measurements. A VIIRS-based CDOM algorithm was developed (R 2 = 0.87, N = 9) and validated (R 2 = 0.76, N = 20, RMSE = 0.29 m -1 ) against in situ observations. Subsequently, ag412 was used as a proxy of DOC in March (DOC = 1.08 + 0.94 × a g 412,R 2 =0.88, N = 13)and in November (DOC= 1.61 + 1.33 × a g 412, R 2 = 0.83, N = 24) to derive DOC maps that provided synoptic views of DOC distribution, sources, and their transport to the coastal waters during the wet and dry seasons. The estimated DOC stocks were ~3.71 × 10 6 kg C in March and ~4.07 × 10 6 kg C in November over an area of ~560 km2. Volume flux (out of the bay) almost doubled for March 24 (735 m 3 s -1 ) relative to November 4 (378 m 3 s -1 ). However, estimates of DOC fluxes exported out of the bay from model-derived currents and satellite-derived DOC were only marginally greater in March (0.163 × 10 6 kg C d -1 ) than in November (0.124 × 10 6 kg C d -1 ) and reflected greater DOC stocks in the fall. Finally, the combination of satellite-, field-, and model-based observations revealed the strong linkage between the Apalachicola River plume, a major source of DOM, and the overall hydrodynamic forcing that controlled distributions of CDOM abundance, DOC concentration, stocks, and fluxes in the bay.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Carbon and Water Fluxes of the Boreal Evergreen Needleleaf Forest Biome Constrained by Assimilating Ecosystem Carbonyl Sulfide Flux Observations

Gross primary production (GPP) by boreal forests is highly sensitive to environmental changes. However, GPP simulated by land surface models (LSMs) remains highly uncertain due to the lack of direct photosynthesis observations at large scales. Carbonyl sulfide (COS) has emerged as a promising proxy to improve the representation of GPP in LSMs. Because COS is absorbed by vegetation following the same diffusion pathway as CO2 during photosynthesis and not emitted back to the atmosphere, incorporating a mechanistic representation of vegetation COS uptake in LSMs allows using COS observations to refine GPP representation. Here, we perform ecosystem COS flux and GPP data assimilations to constrain the COS- and GPP-related parameters in the ORCHIDEE LSM for boreal evergreen needleleaf forests (BorENF). Assimilating ecosystem COS fluxes at Hyytiälä forest increases the simulated net ecosystem COS uptake by 14%. This increase largely results from changes in the internal conductance to COS, highlighting the need to improve the representation of COS internal diffusion and consumption. Moreover, joint assimilation of ecosystem COS flux and GPP at Hyytiälä improves the simulated latent heat flux, contrary to the GPP-only data assimilation, which fails to do so. Finally, we scaled this assimilation framework up to the boreal region and find that the joint assimilation of COS at Hyytiälä and GPP fluxes at 10 BorENF sites increases the modeled vegetation COS uptake up to 18%, but not GPP. Therefore, this study encourages the use of COS flux observations to inform GPP and latent heat flux representations in LSMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Terral De Vicuna, a Foehnlike Wind in Semiarid Northern Chile: Meteorological Aspects and Implications for the Fulfillment of Chill Requirements in Deciduous Fruit Trees

The terral de Vicuña is a warm and dry wind that flows down the Elqui Valley in north-central Chile typically at dawn and early morning. Given that most terral episodes occur in austral winter when chill accumulation by deciduous fruit trees proceeds, negative effects on agriculture may be expected. During 11 (2004-14) winters a meteorological characterization of terral winds and the assessment of their impact on chill accumulation, by the modified Utah Model and the Dynamic Model, were performed. Within this period, 67 terral days (TD) were identified as those in which nighttime to early morning wind direction and speed, air temperature, and relative humidity reached defined thresholds on an hourly basis (terral hours). Most frequent TD featured 6-9 consecutive terral hours; duration is considered here as a proxy for their intensity. Synoptic-scale meteorological analysis shows that 65% of moderate and strong terral events develop as a cold, migratory anticyclone drifts poleward of the study area, coinciding with the onset of a midtropospheric ridge over central Chile, bringing southwest winds on top of the Andes (approximately 500-hPa level). The remaining 35% are either associated with 500-hPa easterlies (foehn like), with prefrontal conditions ahead of a trough driving northwest 500-hPa winds, or with transitional 500-hPa westerlies.Assessments of chill accumulation during TD show that, although present average and cold winter conditions do not represent a major TD hazard to local agriculture, lower chill accumulation associated with anomalously high nocturnal temperatures could be significantly more important during present and future warmer winters.

agriculture↗
NASA NTRS2017

NASA Downscaling Project

A team of researchers from NASA Ames Research Center, Goddard Space Flight Center, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and Marshall Space Flight Center, along with university partners at UCLA, conducted an investigation to explore whether downscaling coarse resolution global climate model (GCM) predictions might provide valid insights into the regional impacts sought by decision makers. Since the computational cost of running global models at high spatial resolution for any useful climate scale period is prohibitive, the hope for downscaling is that a coarse resolution GCM provides sufficiently accurate synoptic scale information for a regional climate model (RCM) to accurately develop fine scale features that represent the regional impacts of a changing climate. As a proxy for a prognostic climate forecast model, and so that ground truth in the form of satellite and in-situ observations could be used for evaluation, the MERRA and MERRA-2 reanalyses were used to drive the NU-WRF regional climate model and a GEOS-5 replay. This was performed at various resolutions that were at factors of 2 to 10 higher than the reanalysis forcing. A number of experiments were conducted that varied resolution, model parameterizations, and intermediate scale nudging, for simulations over the continental US during the period from 2000-2010. The results of these experiments were compared to observational datasets to evaluate the output.

Ferraro, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2019

Artificial Intelligence: Powering Human Exploration of the Moon and Mars

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a growing field of computa- tional science techniques designed to mimic functions per- formed by people. Advancements in autonomy will depend on a portfolio of AI technologies. Automated planning and scheduling is a venerable field of study in AI, and is needed for a variety of mission planning functions. Plan execution technology is less well studied, but important for auton- omy and robotics. Specialized forms of automated reason- ing and machine learning are key technologies to enable fault management. Over the past decade, the NASA Au- tonomous Systems and Operations (ASO) project has devel- oped and demonstrated numerous autonomy enabling tech- nologies employing AI techniques. Our work has employed AI in three distinct ways to enable autonomous mission op- erations capabilities. Crew Autonomy gives astronauts tools to assist in the performance of each of these mission oper-ations functions. Vehicle System Management uses AI tech- niques to turn the astronaut's spacecraft into a robot, allow- ing it to operate when astronauts are not present, or to reduce astronaut workload. AI technology also enables Autonomous Robots as crew assistants or proxies when the crew are not present. When these capabilities are used to enable astro- nauts to operate autonomously, they must be integrated with user interfaces, introducing numerous human factors con- siderations; when these capabilities are used to enable vehi- cle system management, they must be integrated with flight software, and run on embedded processors under the control of real-time operating systems.We first describe human spaceflight mission operations capabilities. The remainder of the paper will describe the ASO project, and the development and demonstration per- formed by ASO since 2011. We will describe the AI tech- niques behind each of these demonstrations, which include a variety of symbolic automated reasoning and machine learn- ing based approaches. Finally, we conclude with an assess- ment of future development needs for AI to enable NASA's future Exploration missions.

Mission Operations↗
DOE OSTI2015

A Bayesian, multivariate calibration for Globigerinoides ruberMg/Ca

The use of Mg/Ca in marine carbonates as a paleothermometer has been challenged by observations that implicate salinity as a contributing influence on Mg incorporation into biotic calcite and that dissolution at the sea-floor alters the original Mg/Ca. Yet, these factors have not yet been incorporated into a single calibration model. In this paper, we introduce a new Bayesian calibration for Globigerinoides ruber Mg/Ca based on 186 globally distributed core top samples, which explicitly takes into account the effect of temperature, salinity, and dissolution on this proxy. Our reported temperature, salinity, and dissolution (here expressed as deep-water ΔCO 2- 3 ) sensitivities are (±2σ) 8.7±0.9%/°C, 3.9±1.2%/psu, and 3.3±1.3%/μmol.kg -1 below a critical threshold of 21 μmol/kg in good agreement with previous culturing and core-top studies. We then perform a sensitivity experiment on a published record from the western tropical Pacific to investigate the bias introduced by these secondary influences on the interpretation of past temperature variability. This experiment highlights the potential for misinterpretations of past oceanographic changes when the secondary influences of salinity and dissolution are not accounted for. Finally, multiproxy approaches could potentially help deconvolve the contributing influences but this awaits better characterization of the spatio-temporal relationship between salinity and δ 18 O sw over millennial and orbital timescales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A mass spectrometry-based high-throughput screening method for engineering fatty acid synthases with improved production of medium-chain fatty acids

Microbial cell factories have been extensively engineered to produce free fatty acids (FFAs), key components of crucial nutrients, soaps, industrial chemicals, and fuels. Yet, our ability to control the specificity of microbially synthesized FFAs is still limited for medium-chain fatty acids (MCFAs), which is mainly due to lack of high-throughput approaches for FFA analysis. Here we report a mass spectrometry (MS)-based method for rapid profiling of MCFAs in Saccharomyces cerevisiae by using membrane lipids as a proxy. Specially, matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight (MALDI-ToF) MS was used to detect shorter acyl chain phosphatidylcholines from membrane lipids and the m/z peak ratio at 730 and 758 was used as an index for improved MCFA production. This yeast colony-based method can be performed at a rate of ~2 second per sample, which is much faster than the gold standard gas chromatography (GC)-MS (typically > 30 min per sample). To demonstrate the power of this method, we performed site-saturation mutagenesis of the yeast fatty acid synthase and identified 9 mutants that resulted in improved MCFA production relative to the wild-type strain. This colony-based MALDI-ToF MS screening method offers an alternative way for engineering microbial fatty acid compositions in a high-throughput manner.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

PredCom: A Predictive Approach to Collecting Approximated Communication Traces

Communication traces collected from MPI applications are an important source of information for performance optimization as they can help analysts determine communication patterns and identify inefficiencies. However, their collection, especially at scale, is time consuming, since it usually requires running the complete target application on a large number of nodes. In this work, we present PredCom, a tool-chain to generate a predictive communication proxy based on information gathered from a few small scale runs, which allows us to extract approximate communication traces with an accuracy high enough for most analysis goals. For this, we combine LLVM passes on the original source code (to capture static program structure) with parameter prediction (to capture dynamic and scaling behavior). This approach drastically reduces the time needed for collecting the communication traces, even for traces on large numbers of MPI processes. Here, we demonstrate that PredCom generates communication traces of various applications up to 1612x faster with an accuracy loss of 0.11 on average compared to the original large-scale traces, and we show that the generated traces can be used to optimize process placement.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Machine Learning for Solar Accessibility: Implications for Low-Income Solar Expansion and Profitability

The solar industry in the US typically uses a credit score such as the FICO score as an indicator of consumer utility payment performance and credit worthiness to approve customers for new solar installations. Using data on over 800,000 utility payment performance and over 5,000 demographic variables, we compare machine learning and econometric models to predict the probability of default to credit-score cutoffs. Here, we compare these models across a variety of measures, including how they affect consumers of different socio-economic backgrounds and profitability. We find that a traditional regression analysis using a small number of variables specific to utility repayment performance greatly increases accuracy and LMI inclusivity relative to FICO score, and that using machine learning techniques further enhances model performance. Relative to FICO, the machine learning model increases the number of low-to-moderate income consumers approved for community solar by 1.1% to 4.2% depending on the stringency used for evaluating potential customers, while decreasing the default rate by 1.4 to 1.9 percentage points. Using electricity utility repayment as a proxy for solar installation repayment, shifting from a FICO score cutoff to the machine learning model increases profits by 34% to 1882% depending on the stringency used for evaluating potential customers.

Davuluri, Sruthi↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Cognitive Systems Engineering Approach to Developing HMI Requirements for New Technologies

This document examines the challenges inherent in designing and regulating to support human-automation interaction for new technologies that will deployed into complex systems. A key question for new technologies, is how work will be accomplished by the human and machine agents. This question has traditionally been framed as how functions should be allocated between humans and machines. Such framing misses the coordination and synchronization that is needed for the different human and machine roles in the system to accomplish their goals. Coordination and synchronization demands are driven by the underlying human-automation architecture of the new technology, which are typically not specified explicitly by the designers. The human machine interface (HMI) which is intended to facilitate human-machine interaction and cooperation, however, typically is defined explicitly and therefore serves as a proxy for human-automation cooperation requirements with respect to technical standards for technologies. Unfortunately, mismatches between the HMI and the coordination and synchronization demands of the underlying human-automation architecture, can lead to system breakdowns. A methodology is needed that both designers and regulators can utilize to evaluate the expected performance of a new technology given potential human-automation architectures. Three experiments were conducted to inform the minimum HMI requirements a detect and avoid system for unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). The results of the experiments provided empirical input to specific minimum operational performance standards that UAS manufacturers will have to meet in order to operate UAS in the National Airspace System (NAS). These studies represent a success story for how to objectively and systematically evaluate prototype technologies as part of the process for developing regulatory requirements. They also provide an opportunity to reflect on the lessons learned from a recent research effort in order to improve the methodology for defining technology requirements for regulators in the future. The biggest shortcoming of the presented research program was the absence of the explicit definition, generation and analysis of potential human-automation architectures. Failure to execute this step in the research process resulted in less efficient evaluation of the candidate prototypes technologies in addition to the complete absence of different approaches to human-automation cooperation. For example, all of the prototype technologies that were evaluated in the research program assumed a human-automation architecture that relied on serial processing from the automation to the human. While this type of human-automation architecture is typical across many different technologies and in many different domains, it ignores different architectures where humans and automation work in parallel. Defining potential human-automation architectures a priori also allows regulators to develop scenarios that will stress the performance boundaries of the technology during the evaluation phase. The importance of adding this step of generating and evaluating candidate human-automation architectures prior to formal empirical evaluation is discussed.

human systems integration↗