Automated Power System Fault Prediction and Precursor Discovery Using Multi-Modal Data
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42 ENGINEERING↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Piezoelectric Energy Harvesting Gyroscopes: Comparative Modeling and Effectiveness
Given its versatility in drawing power from many sources in the natural world, piezoelectric energy harvesting (PEH) has become increasingly popular. However, its energy harvesting capacities could be enhanced further. Here, a mathematical model that accurately simulates the dynamic behavior and energy harvested can facilitate further improvements in the performance of piezoelectric devices. One of the goals of this study is to create a dependable reduced-order model of a multi-purpose gyroscope. This model will make it possible to compute the harvested voltage and electrical power in a semi-analytical manner. The harvested voltage is often modeled as an average value across the whole electrode surface in piezoelectric devices. We propose a model which provides practical insights toward optimizing the performance of the system by considering a spatially varying electric field across the electrode surface length. Our framework allows investigation of the limits of applicability of the modeling assumptions across a range of load resistances. The differential quadrature method (DQM) provides the basis for the suggested numerical solution. The model is also employed to examine energy harvesting under various resistance loads. The newly developed spatially varying model is evaluated for open- and closed-circuit conditions and is proved to be accurate for various values of load resistance that have not previously been considered. The results show that using a spatially varying model is more versatile when modeling the performance of the piezoelectric multifunctional energy harvester. The performance may be accurately captured by the model for load resistances ranging between 103 Ω and 108 Ω. At optimum load resistance and near 65 KHz, the maximum power output predicted by the spatially varying (SV) model is 1.3 mV, 1.5 mV for the open-circuit (OC) model, and 2.1 mV for the closed circuit (CE) model. At a high-load resistance, the SV and OC models all predict the maximum power output to be 1.9 mV while the CE model predicted the maximum voltage to be 3 mV.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Variational data augmentation for a learning-based granular predictive model of power outages
As the trend in climate change continues, extreme weather events are expected to occur with increasing frequency and severity and pose a significant threat to the electric power infrastructure. Regardless of the efforts a utility puts towards hardening the grid, storm-induced damage to the utility assets such as cables and distributed energy resources (DERs) that are particularly vulnerable to such events is unavoidable. Access to a highly granular, in space and time, outage forecasting tool with long lead times (i.e., days ahead) will enhance the efficiency of service restoration efforts. Here, in this study, we propose to develop and implement a multi-model framework as an operational tool based on a granular and multi-day outage forecasting model using operational numerical weather prediction model forecasts and detailed component outage information. An innovative two-layered recurrent neural network, i.e., a long-short-term-memory (LSTM)-based variational autoencoder (VAE) framework and a sliding window are used to address the uneven distribution of different types of weather events and make better use of the time-series data. Case studies are performed to demonstrate the performance of the new framework.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Forecasting battery capacity and power degradation with multi-task learning
Lithium-ion batteries degrade due to usage and exposure to environmental conditions, which affects their capability to store energy and supply power. Accurately predicting the capacity and power fade of lithium-ion battery cells is challenging due to intrinsic manufacturing variances and coupled nonlinear ageing mechanisms. In this paper, we propose a data-driven prognostics framework to predict both capacity and power fade simultaneously with multi-task learning. The model is able to predict the degradation trajectory of both capacity and internal resistance together with knee-points and end-of-life points accurately at early-life stage. The validation shows an average percentage error of 2.37% and 1.24% for the prediction of capacity fade and resistance rise, respectively. The model's ability to accurately predict the degradation, facing capacity and resistance estimation errors, further demonstrates the model's robustness and generalizability. Compared with single-task learning models for forecasting capacity and power degradation, the model shows a significant prediction accuracy improvement and computational cost reduction. This work presents the highlights of multi-task learning in the degradation prognostics for lithium-ion batteries.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Compute Overlap Stall (COS): Predicting Performance of Power Management for Shared Memory Codes When Throttling Processors, Memory, and Thread Concurrency
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Computer science↗
Intelligent Prediction of States in Multi-port Autonomous Reconfigurable Solar power plant (MARS)
In power electronics, prediction of states may be used for identification of faults, determination of aging of components, identification of bad data measurements, among others. Prediction of states in power electronics have broadly been based on: (a) physics-based models, (b) data-driven models, and (c) hybrid models. In this paper, data-driven approaches are presented for intelligent prediction of states in multi-port autonomous reconfigurable solar power plant (MARS) and compared. The data-set needed to train the data-driven models based on artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms has been identified and the trained models are evaluated under different extrapolated normal and abnormal operating conditions. The AI algorithms include nonlinear auto-regressive exogenous model (NARX), spiking neural networks (SNN), and decision tree. The models are compared and contrasted. The best model (NARX) is evaluated under different normal and abnormal operating conditions that have indicated accurate prediction.
Debnath, Suman↗
Chapter 7: Predictive Analytics in Future Power Systems: A Panorama and State-of-the-Art of Deep Learning Applications
The challenges surrounding the optimal operation of power systems are growing in various dimensions, due in part to increasingly distributed energy resources and a progression towards large-scale transportation electrification. Currently, the increasing uncertainties associated with both renewable energy generation and demand are largely being managed by increasing operational reserves - potentially at the cost of suboptimal economic conditions - in order to maintain the reliability of the system. This chapter looks at the big picture role of forecasting in power systems from generation to consumption and provides a comprehensive review of traditional approaches for forecasting generation and load in various contexts. This chapter then takes a deep dive into the state-of-the-art machine learning and deep learning approaches for power systems forecasting. Furthermore, a case study of multi-time-horizon solar irradiance forecasting using deep learning is discussed in detail. Smart grids form the backbone of the future interdependent networks. For addressing the challenges associated with the operations of smart grid, development and wide adoption of machine learning and deep learning algorithms capable of producing better forecasting accuracies is urgently needed. Along with exploring the implementation and benefits of these approaches, this chapter also considers the strengths and limitations of deep learning algorithms for power systems forecasting applications. This chapter, thus, provides a panoramic view of state-of-the-art of predictive analytics in power systems in the context of future smart grid operations.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Development of a Scalable Risk-informed Predictive Maintenance Cloud-based Strategy at Nuclear Power Plants
The fact that light-water reactor operation and maintenance costs are prohibitively expensive and contribute to the premature decommissioning of nuclear power plants is partly due to how the equipment is monitored. In recent years, cloud computing has emerged as a dominant technology, as its low cost, computing and storage adaptability, and ability to host applications across numerous virtual infrastructures potentially make it a cost-effective alternative to onsite storage and diagnostics. In this paper, a technological assessment is carried out on a provisional cloud deployment architecture for a nuclear power plant predictive monitoring system. This cloud-based monitoring system would enable maintenance and diagnostic analysts and other authorized plant users to remotely monitor equipment functionality, thus enabling early fault detection and effective predictive maintenance practices. To provide data processing and storage, sensor device networking, and database management, the Microsoft Azure cloud platform is utilized as part of the proposed cloud architecture; however, this analysis could be extended to other cloud computing service providers as well. The focus of this paper is on application of cloud resources for enabling predictive maintenance, identification of technological hurdles associated with moving to a cloud-computing-based architecture, and potential benefits from moving to a centralized cloud system.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Forecasting Solar Photovoltaic Power Production: A Comprehensive Review and Innovative Data-Driven Modeling Framework
The intermittent and stochastic nature of Renewable Energy Sources (RESs) necessitates accurate power production prediction for effective scheduling and grid management. This paper presents a comprehensive review conducted with reference to a pioneering, comprehensive, and data-driven framework proposed for solar Photovoltaic (PV) power generation prediction. The systematic and integrating framework comprises three main phases carried out by seven main comprehensive modules for addressing numerous practical difficulties of the prediction task: phase I handles the aspects related to data acquisition (module 1) and manipulation (module 2) in preparation for the development of the prediction scheme; phase II tackles the aspects associated with the development of the prediction model (module 3) and the assessment of its accuracy (module 4), including the quantification of the uncertainty (module 5); and phase III evolves towards enhancing the prediction accuracy by incorporating aspects of context change detection (module 6) and incremental learning when new data become available (module 7). This framework adeptly addresses all facets of solar PV power production prediction, bridging existing gaps and offering a comprehensive solution to inherent challenges. By seamlessly integrating these elements, our approach stands as a robust and versatile tool for enhancing the precision of solar PV power prediction in real-world applications.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Develop a weather-aware climate model to understand and predict extremes and associated power outages and renewable energy shortages with uncertainty-aware and physics-informed machine learning
Focal Area(s): The focus area is predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components with a particular emphasis on extreme weather in Atmospheric Science and power outages and shortages in Energy Science. Science Challenge: Predicting weather extremes (e.g., heavy precipitation, strong wind, and large hailstones), and weather-related power system outages and shortages can mitigate economic losses, save lives, support renewables integration, and improve power system resiliency. However, currently, the poor reliability and large uncertainty associated with the weather extreme prediction in the current climate models make the problem intractable. The key challenges are: (1) physical factors like green-house gases (GHGs), aerosols, and land use and land cover (LULC) can significantly impact extreme storms, but the understanding of these impacts is limited, particularly globally; (2) the convective permitting resolutions needed to model severe convective storms and their impacts are computationally prohibitive with global climate models (GCMs); (3) interactions between weather extremes and power system outages are complex and subject to great uncertainty. Current outage prediction models are short lead (~ 3 days), which do not allow for long-time planning of energy production and distribution. Moreover, we have limited capacity to predict weather events leading to sustained shortages in a renewable-energy-dominated power system. These challenges drive motivation for mechanistic understanding and reliable and efficient predictive modeling of extremes and their impacts from the sub-seasonal to long term projections.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Evaluation of Power Transmission Lines Hardening Scenarios Using a Machine Learning Approach
The power transmission infrastructure is vulnerable to extreme weather events, particularly hurricanes and tropical storms. A recent example is the damage caused by Hurricane Maria (H-Maria) in the archipelago of Puerto Rico in September 2017, where major failures in the transmission infrastructure led to a total blackout. Numerous studies have been conducted to examine strategies to strengthen the transmission system, including burying the power lines underground or increasing the frequency of tree trimming. However, few studies focus on the direct hardening of the transmission towers to accomplish an increase in resiliency. This machine learning-based study fills this need by analyzing three direct hardening scenarios and determining the effectiveness of these changes in the context of H-Maria. A methodology for estimating transmission tower damage is presented here in this study as well as an analysis of impact of replacing structures with a high failure rate with more resilient ones. We found the steel self-support-pole to be the best replacement option for the towers with high failure rate. Furthermore, the third hardening scenario, where all wooden poles were replaced, exhibited a maximum reduction in damaged towers in a single line of 66% while lowering the mean number of damaged towers per line by 10%.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Long term predictions of coal fired power plant data using evolved recurrent neural networks
Abstract This work presents an investigation into the ability of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to provide long term predictions of time series data generated by coal fired power plants. While there are numerous studies which have used artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict coal plant parameters, to the authors’ knowledge these have almost entirely been restricted to predicting values at the next time step, and not farther into the future. Using a novel neuro-evolution strategy called Evolutionary eXploration of Augmenting Memory Models (EXAMM), we evolved RNNs with advanced memory cells to predict per-minute plant parameters and per-hour boiler parameters up to 8 hours into the future. These data sets were challenging prediction tasks as they involve spiking behavior in the parameters being predicted. While the evolved RNNs were able to successfully predict the spikes in the hourly data they did not perform very well in accurately predicting their severity. The per-minute data proved even more challenging as medium range predictions miscalculated the beginning and ending of spikes, and longer range predictions reverted to long term trends and ignored the spikes entirely. We hope this initial study will motivate further study into this highly challenging prediction problem. The use of fuel properties data generated by a new Coal Tracker Optimization (CTO) program was also investigated and this work shows that their use improved predictive ability of the evolved RNNs.
Automation & Control Systems↗
Modelling of a Flow-Induced Oscillation, Two-Cylinder, Hydrokinetic Energy Converter Based on Experimental Data
The VIVACE Converter consists of cylindrical oscillators in tandem subjected to transverse flow-induced oscillations (FIOs) that can be improved by varying the system parameters for a given in-flow velocity: damping, stiffness, and in-flow center-to-center spacing. Compared to a single isolated cylinder, tandem cylinders can harness more hydrokinetic energy due to synergy in FIO. Experimental and numerical methods have been utilized to analyze the FIO and energy harnessing of VIVACE. A surrogate-based model of two tandem cylinders is developed to predict the power harvesting and corresponding efficiency by introducing a backpropagation neural network. It is then utilized to reduce excessive experimental or computational testing. The effects of spacing, damping, and stiffness on harvested power and efficiency of the established prediction-model are analyzed. At each selected flow velocity, optimization results of power harvesting using the prediction-model are calculated under different combinations of damping and stiffness. The main conclusions are: (1) The surrogate model, built on extensive experimental data for tandem cylinders, can predict the cylinder oscillatory response accurately. (2) Increasing the damping ratio range from 0–0.24 to 0–0.30 is beneficial for improving power efficiency, but has no significant effect on power harvesting. (3) In galloping, a spacing ratio of 1.57 has the highest optimal harnessed power and efficiency compared with other spacing values. (4) Two tandem cylinders can harness 2.01–4.67 times the optimal power of an isolated cylinder. In addition, the former can achieve 1.46–4.01 times the efficiency of the latter. (5) The surrogate model is an efficient predictive tool defining parameters of the Converter for improved energy acquisition.
backpropagation neural network↗
Improvements to the Modeling of the TREAT Reactor and Experiments
This paper summarizes the latest improvements and lessons learned from the modeling and simulation of the transient test reactor at Idaho National Laboratory using the MAM- MOTH reactor physics application. MAMMOTH is a MOOSE-based, Finite Element Method application that specializes in the analysis of the spatial dynamics behavior of nuclear reactors. Since early 2018 several transient tests have been conducted at TREAT, thus providing the opportunity to apply and benchmark modern modeling and simulation tools. MAMMOTH was used to provide predictions of the power coupling factor between the core and the experiment for various experiments. Even though the power coupling factor predictions agree very well with the experimental data, within the bounds of the experimental uncertainty, one shortcoming was the underprediction of the total energy deposited in the core and in the experiment. Determination of the sources for this discrepancy are ongoing, but several key problems have been identified and resolved, thus providing valuable insights for future research. This paper discusses several of these lessons learned. First, the heat capacity data for the TREAT fuel has some significant problems due to limitations of the measurement techniques used circa 1960s. The sensitivity of the peak power and the total energy deposition to various representations of the heat capacity is approximately 5%. Second, the effects of the biological shield and thermal column on the modeling of the core are non-negligible, since they affect the mean generation time and the effective reflection of neutrons back into the core, which is suspected to be important during the core heat up. Matching the reactor period resolves the fact that the reduced spatial domain used in the MAMMOTH model underpredicts the mean generation time. The neutron reflection from these regions is marginally improved with the use of an albedo boundary condition. Third, modeling of the control rod movement with a multi-scheme method is introduced and its current limitations are exposed. Fourth, we explore the effects of using a homogenized model with Superhomogenization equivalence and how that differs from fully heterogeneous simulations. Finally, the energy condensation effects for this graphite core are significant. Solutions with 10 and 26 energy groups show the benefits of using a finer coarse group structure.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
GAMSOR: Gamma Source Preparation and DIF3D Flux Solution (Rev. 2)
Nuclear reactors that rely upon the fission reaction have two modes of thermal energy deposition in the reactor system: neutron absorption and gamma absorption. The gamma rays are typically generated by neutron capture reactions or during the fission process which means the primary driver of energy production is of course the neutron interaction. In conventional reactor physics methods, the gamma heating component is ignored such that the gamma absorption is forced to occur at the gamma emission site. For experimental reactor systems like EBR-II and FFTF, the placement of structural pins and assemblies internal to the core leads to problems with power heating predictions because there is no fission power source internal to the assembly to dictate a spatial distribution of the power.
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
PowerModel-AI: A First On-the-Fly Machine-Learning Predictor for AC Power Flow Solutions
The real-time creation of machine-learning models via active or on-the-fly learning has attracted considerable interest across various scientific and engineering disciplines. These algorithms enable machines to build models autonomously while remaining operational. Through a series of query strategies, the machine can evaluate whether newly encountered data fall outside the scope of the existing training set. In this study, we introduce PowerModel-AI, an end-to-end machine learning software designed to accurately predict AC power flow solutions. We present detailed justifications for our model design choices and demonstrate that selecting the right input features effectively captures load flow decoupling inherent in power flow equations. Our approach incorporates on-the-fly learning, where power flow calculations are initiated only when the machine detects a need to improve the dataset in regions where the model’s suboptimal performance is based on specific criteria. Otherwise, the existing model is used for power flow predictions. This study includes analyses of five Texas A&M synthetic power grid cases, encompassing the 14-, 30-, 37-, 200-, and 500-bus systems. The training and test datasets were generated using PowerModels.jl, an open-source power flow solver/optimizer developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM, USA.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Machine Learning-based Prediction of Departure from Nucleate Boiling Power for the PSBT Benchmark
Machine Learning (ML) has seen an exponential growth in its applications due to its advanced data driven prediction capabilities. The study presents a data-driven approach as a preliminary attempt to predict the power at which departure from nucleate boiling (DNB) occurs in pressurized water reactors (PWRs) by constructing an advanced ML algorithm that takes outlet pressure, inlet temperature and inlet mass flux as the input features. DNB is a critical heat flux (CHF) phenomenon seen in PWRs. The experimental data from the PWR subchannel and bundle tests (PSBT) benchmark is first used to train an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict the DNB power, which produces a root mean square error (RMSE) of 6.89 kW/m when tested on a blind subset of the PSBT data. Since the PSBT dataset is relatively small to train an accurate ANN, a data augmentation methodology based on generative adversarial networks (GANs) is used to expand the training dataset. By assuming that the real data follows a certain distribution, GANs try to learn that underlying distribution to generate similar synthetic data to augment the database and to improve the predictive capabilities of the ANN. The data generated from GANs are validated using 1-nearest neighbor and kernel maximum mean discrepancy. To further ensure data from GAN is similar to PSBT, the data is tested and filtered out using the sub-channel thermal-hydraulic code CTF. The results indicate that with the addition of 120 data points from GAN the RMSE reduces to 4.84 kW/m showing promising results for future developments.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Transient Efficiency Flexibility and Reliability Optimization of Coal-Fired Power Plants: Model-Predictive Control Library Development (Report)
This document pertains to the reporting requirements of DOE contract FE-0031767. The document covers the development of a model predictive control (MPC) library for implementing MPC for a general dynamic system. The library is implemented in a standardized manner in Matlab/Simulink, where core functions on model prediction, linearization and formulation and solution of a quadratic programming (QP) optimization problem is done in the core library - independent of the specific application. The user can provide the application-specific dynamic model in continuous and discrete time, to rapidly implement and test the MPC performance in a desktop simulation. The MPC optimization objective and constraints are also easily configured via an Excel file to allow iterative refinement as needed. Finally, the MPC library enables a rapid deployment to a target environment through auto C-code generation and containerization. The MPC library works seamlessly with the model based estimation (MBE) library to obtain the overall output feedback control solution. In this program, the reduced order model (ROM) of a coal-fired power plant (CFPP) is used to implement and test the MPC solution.
01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗