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At least 307 records · Page 17

Using the Modified Precursor Method to Estimate the Size of Cycle 24

Modified geomagnetic precursor techniques for predicting the size of the following sunspot cycle are developed, where these techniques use the 12-month moving averages of the number of disturbed days (when Ap greater than or equals 25), the Ap index, the aa index, and the aaI index at about 4 yr during the declining portion of the preceding sunspot cycle. For cycle 24, these techniques suggest that its RM will measure about 130 +/- 14, a value outside the consensus prediction interval of the low prediction (90 +/- 10) given by the NOAA Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel. Furthermore, cycle 24 is predicted to be a fast-rising cycle (ASC = 44 +/- 5 months), peaking before April 2012, presuming the official start of cycle 24 in March 2008. Also discussed are the variation of solar cycle lengths and Hale cycle effects, as related to cycles 23 and 24.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Predicting the Size of Sunspot Cycle 24 on the Basis of Single- and Bi-Variate Geomagnetic Precursor Methods

Examined are single- and bi-variate geomagnetic precursors for predicting the maximum amplitude (RM) of a sunspot cycle several years in advance. The best single-variate fit is one based on the average of the ap index 36 mo prior to cycle minimum occurrence (E(Rm)), having a coefficient of correlation (r) equal to 0.97 and a standard error of estimate (se) equal to 9.3. Presuming cycle 24 not to be a statistical outlier and its minimum in March 2008, the fit suggests cycle 24 s RM to be about 69 +/- 20 (the 90% prediction interval). The weighted mean prediction of 11 statistically important single-variate fits is 116 +/- 34. The best bi-variate fit is one based on the maximum and minimum values of the 12-mma of the ap index; i.e., APM# and APm*, where # means the value post-E(RM) for the preceding cycle and * means the value in the vicinity of cycle minimum, having r = 0.98 and se = 8.2. It predicts cycle 24 s RM to be about 92 +/- 27. The weighted mean prediction of 22 statistically important bi-variate fits is 112 32. Thus, cycle 24's RM is expected to lie somewhere within the range of about 82 to 144. Also examined are the late-cycle 23 behaviors of geomagnetic indices and solar wind velocity in comparison to the mean behaviors of cycles 2023 and the geomagnetic indices of cycle 14 (RM = 64.2), the weakest sunspot cycle of the modern era.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Development of NASA's Accident Precursor Analysis Process Through Application on the Space Shuttle Orbiter

Accident Precursor Analysis (APA) serves as the bridge between existing risk modeling activities, which are often based on historical or generic failure statistics, and system anomalies, which provide crucial information about the failure mechanisms that are actually operative in the system. APA docs more than simply track experience: it systematically evaluates experience, looking for under-appreciated risks that may warrant changes to design or operational practice. This paper presents the pilot application of the NASA APA process to Space Shuttle Orbiter systems. In this effort, the working sessions conducted at Johnson Space Center (JSC) piloted the APA process developed by Information Systems Laboratories (ISL) over the last two years under the auspices of NASA's Office of Safety & Mission Assurance, with the assistance of the Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) Shuttle & Exploration Analysis Branch. This process is built around facilitated working sessions involving diverse system experts. One important aspect of this particular APA process is its focus on understanding the physical mechanism responsible for an operational anomaly, followed by evaluation of the risk significance of the observed anomaly as well as consideration of generalizations of the underlying mechanism to other contexts. Model completeness will probably always be an issue, but this process tries to leverage operating experience to the extent possible in order to address completeness issues before a catastrophe occurs.

Maggio, Gaspare↗

The 2001 Mars In-Situ-Propellant-Production Precursor (MIP) Flight Demonstration

The successful performance of the five individual demonstrations of MARS IN-SITU-PROPELLANT-PRODUCTION PRECURSOR (MIP) will provide both knowledge of and confidence in the reliability of this technology. At the completion of this flight demonstration, the MIP Team will be able to: a) recommend preferred hardware configurations for the intake and adsorption of carbon dioxide from the Martian atmosphere; b) understand the performance characteristics of zirconia cells to generate propellant-grade oxygen; c) understand long-term performance characteristics of advanced solar cells/arrays operated in the actual Mars environment; d) evaluate the functionality of methods to mitigate the deposition of airborne dust onto solar arrays; and e) recommend preferred hardware designs for innovative thermal management including the radiation of heat to the outside environment.

Kaplan, David I.↗

NASA's Accident Precursor Analysis Process and the International Space Station

This viewgraph presentation reviews the implementation of Accident Precursor Analysis (APA), as well as the evaluation of In-Flight Investigations (IFI) and Problem Reporting and Corrective Action (PRACA) data for the identification of unrecognized accident potentials on the International Space Station.

Groen, Frank↗

Influence of Boehmite Precursor on Aluminosilicate Aerogel Pore Structure, Phase Stability and Resistance to Densification at High Temperatures

Aluminosilicate aerogels are of interest as constituents of thermal insulation systems for use at temperatures higher than those attainable with silica aerogels. It is anticipated that their effectiveness as thermal insulators will be influenced by their morphology, pore size distribution, physical and skeletal densities. The present study focuses on the synthesis of aluminosilicate aerogel from a variety of Boehmite (precursors as the Al source, and tetraethylorthosilicate (TEOS) as the Si source, and the influence of starting powder on pore structure and thermal stability.

Hurwitz, Frances I.↗

Trajectory Guidance for Mars Robotic Precursors: Aerocapture, Entry, Descent, and Landing

Future crewed missions to Mars require improvements in landed mass capability beyond that which is possible using state-of-the-art Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) systems. Current systems are capable of an estimated maximum landed mass of 1-1.5 metric tons (MT), while human Mars studies require 20-40 MT. A set of technologies were investigated by the EDL Systems Analysis (SA) project to assess the performance of candidate EDL architectures. A single architecture was selected for the design of a robotic precursor mission, entitled Exploration Feed Forward (EFF), whose objective is to demonstrate these technologies. In particular, inflatable aerodynamic decelerators (IADs) and supersonic retro-propulsion (SRP) have been shown to have the greatest mass benefit and extensibility to future exploration missions. In order to evaluate these technologies and develop the mission, candidate guidance algorithms have been coded into the simulation for the purposes of studying system performance. These guidance algorithms include aerocapture, entry, and powered descent. The performance of the algorithms for each of these phases in the presence of dispersions has been assessed using a Monte Carlo technique.

Sostaric, Ronald R.↗

Towards Prognostics of Power MOSFETs: Accelerated Aging and Precursors of Failure

This paper presents research results dealing with power MOSFETs (metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistor) within the prognostics and health management of electronics. Experimental results are presented for the identification of the on-resistance as a precursor to failure of devices with die-attach degradation as a failure mechanism. Devices are aged under power cycling in order to trigger die-attach damage. In situ measurements of key electrical and thermal parameters are collected throughout the aging process and further used for analysis and computation of the on-resistance parameter. Experimental results show that the devices experience die-attach damage and that the on-resistance captures the degradation process in such a way that it could be used for the development of prognostics algorithms (data-driven or physics-based).

Celaya, Jose R.↗

C/NOFS Satellite Electric Field and Plasma Density Observations of Plasma Instabilities Below the Equatorial F-Peak -- Evidence for Approximately 500 km-Scale Spread-F "Precursor" Waves Driven by Zonal Shear Flow and km-Scale, Narrow-Banded Irregularities

As solar activity has increased, the ionosphere F-peak has been elevated on numerous occasions above the C/NOFS satellite perigee of 400km. In particular, during the month of April, 2011, the satellite consistently journeyed below the F-peak whenever the orbit was in the region of the South Atlantic anomaly after sunset. During these passes, data from the electric field and plasma density probes on the satellite have revealed two types of instabilities which had not previously been observed in the C/NOFS data set (to our knowledge): The first is evidence for 400-500km-scale bottomside "undulations" that appear in the density and electric field data. In one case, these large scale waves are associated with a strong shear in the zonal E x B flow, as evidenced by variations in the meridional (outward) electric fields observed above and below the F-peak. These undulations are devoid of smaller scale structures in the early evening, yet appear at later local times along the same orbit associated with fully-developed spread-F with smaller scale structures. This suggests that they may be precursor waves for spread-F, driven by a collisional shear instability, following ideas advanced previously by researchers using data from the Jicamarca radar. A second new result (for C/NOFS) is the appearance of km-scale irregularities that are a common feature in the electric field and plasma density data that also appear when the satellite is below the F -peak at night. The vector electric field instrument on C/NOFS clearly shows that the electric field component of these waves is strongest in the zonal direction. These waves are strongly correlated with simultaneous observations of plasma density oscillations and appear both with, and without, evidence of larger-scale spread-F depletions. These km-scale, quasi-coherent waves strongly resemble the bottomside, sinusoidal irregularities reported in the Atmosphere Explorer satellite data set by Valladares et al. [JGR, 88, 8025, 1983]. We interpret these new observations in terms of fundamental plasma instabilities associated with the unstable, nighttime equatorial ionosphere.

Pfaff, R.↗

Titan Aerosol Analogs from Aromatic Precursors: Comparisons to Cassini CIRS Observations in the Thermal Infrared

Since Cassini's arrival at Titan, ppm levels of benzene (C6H6) as well as large positive ions, which may be polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). have been detected in the atmosphere. Aromatic molecules. photolytically active in the ultraviolet, may be important in the formation of the organic aerosol comprising the Titan haze layer even when present at low mixing ratios. Yet there have not been laboratory simulations exploring the impact of these molecules as precursors to Titan's organic aerosol. Observations of Titan by the Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) in the far-infrared (far-IR) between 560 and 20/cm (approx. 18 to 500 microns) and in the mid-infrared (mid-IR) between 1500 and 600/cm (approx. 7 to 17 microns) have been used to infer the vertical variations of Titan's aerosol from the surface to an altitude of 300 km in the far-IR and between 150 and 350 km in the mid-IR. Titan's aerosol has several observed emission features which cannot be reproduced using currently available optical constants from laboratory-generated Titan aerosol analogs, including a broad far-IR feature centered approximately at 140/cm (71 microns).

Trainer, Melissa G.↗

Precursor Asteroid Missions and Synergies to Human Exploration of Phobos and Deimos

U.S. President Obama stated on April 15, 2010 that the next goal for human spaceflight will be to send human beings to a near-Earth asteroid by 2025 and then on to the Martian system in the 2030s. Given this direction from the White House, NASA has been involved in studying various strategies for near-Earth object (NEO) exploration in order to follow U.S. space exploration policy. These missions would be the first human expeditions to interplanetary bodies beyond the Earth-Moon system and would prove useful for testing technologies required for human missions to Mars and its moons, as well as other Solar System destinations. Robotic precursor missions to NEOs would undoubtedly provide a great deal of technical and engineering data on spacecraft operations for future human space exploration while conducting in-depth scientific investigations of these primitive objects. In addition, the resulting scientific investigations would refine designs for future extraterrestrial resource extraction and utilization, which may play a vital role in leveraging potential resources from the Martian moons that in turn could enable robotic and human exploration of Mars.

Abell, Paul↗

Solar Wind Electron Interaction with the Dayside Lunar Surface and Crustal Magnetic Fields: Evidence for Precursor Effects

Electron distributions measured by Lunar Prospector above the dayside lunar surface in the solar wind often have an energy dependent loss cone, inconsistent with adiabatic magnetic reflection. Energy dependent reflection suggests the presence of downward parallel electric fields below the spacecraft, possibly indicating the presence of a standing electrostatic structure. Many electron distributions contain apparent low energy (<100 eV) upwardgoing conics (58% of the time) and beams (12% of the time), primarily in regions with non-zero crustal magnetic fields, implying the presence of parallel electric fields and/or wave-particle interactions below the spacecraft. Some, but not all, of the observed energy dependence comes from the energy gained during reflection from a moving obstacle; correctly characterizing electron reflection requires the use of the proper reference frame. Nonadiabatic reflection may also play a role, but cannot fully explain observations. In cases with upward-going beams, we observe partial isotropization of incoming solar wind electrons, possibly indicating streaming and/or whistler instabilities. The Moon may therefore influence solar wind plasma well upstream from its surface. Magnetic anomaly interactions and/or non-monotonic near surface potentials provide the most likely candidates to produce the observed precursor effects, which may help ensure quasi-neutrality upstream from the Moon.

Solar↗

Investigation of Pyridine Carboxylic Acids in CM2 Carbonaceous Chondrites: Potential Precursor Molecules for Ancient Coenzymes

The distribution and abundances of pyridine carboxylic acids (including nicotinic acid) in eight CM2 carbonaceous chondrites (ALH 85013, DOM 03183, DOM 08003, EET 96016, LAP 02333, LAP 02336, LEW 85311, and WIS 91600) were investigated by liquid chromatography coupled to UV detection and high resolution Orbitrap mass spectrometry. We find that pyridine monocarboxylic acids are prevalent in CM2-type chondrites and their abundance negatively correlates with the degree of pre-terrestrial aqueous alteration that the meteorite parent body experienced. We lso report the first detection of pyridine dicarboxylic acids in carbonaceous chondrites. Additionally, we carried out laboratory studies of proton-irradiated pyridine in carbon dioxide-rich ices (a 1:1 mixture) to serve as a model of the interstellar ice chemistry that may have led to the synthesis of pyridine carboxylic acids. Analysis of the irradiated ice residue shows that a comparable suite of pyridine mono- and dicarboxylic acids was produced, although aqueous alteration may still play a role in the synthesis (and ultimate yield) of these compounds in carbonaceous meteorites. Nicotinic acid is a precursor to nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide, a likely ancient molecule used in cellular metabolism in all of life, and its common occurrence in CM2 chondrites may indicate that meteorites may have been a source of molecules for the emergence of more complex coenzymes on the early Earth.

Pyridine Carboxylic↗

Kilowatt-Class Fission Power Systems for Science and Human Precursor Missions

Nuclear power provides an enabling capability for NASA missions that might otherwise be constrained by power availability, mission duration, or operational robustness. NASA and the Department of Energy (DOE) are developing fission power technology to serve a wide range of future space uses. Advantages include lower mass, longer life, and greater mission flexibility than competing power system options. Kilowatt-class fission systems, designated "Kilopower," were conceived to address the need for systems to fill the gap above the current 100-W-class radioisotope power systems being developed for science missions and below the typical 100-k We-class reactor power systems being developed for human exploration missions. This paper reviews the current fission technology project and examines some Kilopower concepts that could be used to support future science missions or human precursors.

Flexibility↗

Kilowatt-Class Fission Power Systems for Science and Human Precursor Missions

Nuclear power provides an enabling capability for NASA missions that might otherwise be constrained by power availability, mission duration, or operational robustness. NASA and the Department of Energy (DOE) are developing fission power technology to serve a wide range of future space uses. Advantages include lower mass, longer life, and greater mission flexibility than competing power system options. Kilowatt-class fission systems, designated "Kilopower," were conceived to address the need for systems to fill the gap above the current 100-Wclass radioisotope power systems being developed for science missions and below the typical 100-kWe-class reactor power systems being developed for human exploration missions. This paper reviews the current fission technology project and examines some Kilopower concepts that could be used to support future science missions or human precursors.

Mason, Lee↗

The Formation of Solid Particles from their Gas-Phase Molecular Precursors in Cosmic Environments with NASA Ames' COSmIC Facility

We present and discuss the unique characteristics and capabilities of the laboratory facility, COSmIC, that was developed at NASA Ames to generate, process and analyze interstellar, circumstellar and planetary analogs in the laboratory. COSmIC stands for Cosmic Simulation Chamber and is dedicated to the study of molecules and ions under the low temperature and high vacuum conditions that are required to simulate interstellar, circumstellar and planetary physical environments in space. COSmIC integrates a variety of state-of-the-art instruments that allow forming, processing and monitoring simulated space conditions for planetary, circumstellar and interstellar materials in the laboratory. COSmIC is composed of a Pulsed Discharge Nozzle (PDN) expansion that generates a free jet supersonic expansion coupled to two ultrahigh-sensitivity, complementary in situ diagnostics: a Cavity Ring Down Spectroscopy (CRDS) system for photonic detection and a Reflectron Time-Of-Flight Mass Spectrometer (ReTOF-MS) for mass detection. Recent, unique, laboratory astrophysics results that were obtained using the capabilities of COSmIC will be discussed, in particular the progress that have been achieved in monitoring in the laboratory the formation of solid gains from their gas-phase molecular precursors in environments as varied as stellar/circumstellar outflow and planetary atmospheres. Plans for future, next generation, laboratory experiments on cosmic molecules and grains in the growing field of laboratory astrophysics will also be addressed as well as the implications of these studies for current and upcoming space missions.

COSmIC↗

Insulating Materials Comprising Polysilazane, Methods of Forming Such Insulating Materials, and Precursor Formulations Comprising Polysilazane

Methods of forming an insulating material comprising combining a polysilazane, a cross-linking compound, and a gas-generating compound to form a reaction mixture, and curing the reaction mixture to form a modified polysilazane. The gas-generating compound may be water, an alcohol, an amine, or combinations thereof. The cross-linking compound may be an isocyanate, an epoxy resin, or combinations thereof. The insulating material may include a matrix comprising one of a reaction product of a polysilazane and an isocyanate and a reaction product of a polysilazane and an epoxy resin. The matrix also comprises a plurality of interconnected pores produced from one of reaction of the polysilazane and the isocyanate and from reaction of the polysilazane and the epoxy resin. A precursor formulation that comprises a polysilazane, a cross-linking compound, and a gas-generating compound is also disclosed.

Larson, Robert S.↗

Synthesis, Structure, Characterization, and Decomposition of Nickel Dithiocarbamates: Effect of Precursor Structure and Processing Conditions on Solid-State Products

Single-crystal X-ray structures of four nickel dithiocarbamate complexes, the homoleptic mixed-organic bis-dithiocarbamates Ni[S2CN(isopropyl)(benzyl)]2, Ni[S2CN(ethyl)(n-butyl)]2, and Ni[S2CN(phenyl)(benzyl)]2, as well as the heteroleptic mixed-ligand complex NiCl[P(phenyl)3][(S2CN(phenyl)(benzyl)], were determined. Synthetic, spectroscopic, structural, thermal, and sulfide materials studies are discussed in light of prior literature. The spectroscopic results are routine. A slightly distorted square-planar nickel coordination environment was observed for all four complexes. The organic residues adopt conformations to minimize steric interactions. Steric effects also may determine puckering, if any, about the nickel and nitrogen atoms, both of which are planar or nearly so. A trans-influence affects the Ni-S bond distances. Nitrogen atoms interact with the CS2 carbons with a bond order of about 1.5, and the other substituents on nitrogen display transoid conformations. There are no strong intermolecular interactions, consistent with prior observations of the volatility of nickel dithiocarbamate complexes. Thermogravimetric analysis of the homoleptic species under inert atmosphere is consistent with production of 1:1 nickel sulfide phases. Thermolysis of nickel dithiocarbamates under flowing nitrogen produced hexagonal or -NiS as the major phase; thermolysis under flowing forming gas produced millerite (-NiS) at 300 C, godlevskite (Ni9S8) at 325 and 350 C, and heazlewoodite (Ni3S2) at 400 and 450 C. Failure to exclude oxygen results in production of nickel oxide. Nickel sulfide phases produced seem to be primarily influenced by processing conditions, in agreement with prior literature. Nickel dithiocarbamate complexes demonstrate significant promise to serve as single-source precursors to nickel sulfides, a quite interesting family of materials with numerous potential applications.

microscopy↗