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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
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NASA NTRS2005

Lightning Mapping and the Nowcasting of Severe Storms

This paper describes a successful research and operational collaboration between NASA scientists and NWS forecasters to improve severe stor m warnings using real-time data from a regional VHF total lightning mapping array (LMA). Key objectives of our research using LMA data ar e: a) Identification of intensifying and weakening storms using the time rate-of-change of total flash rate; b) Improved severe storm poten tial situational awareness; c) Evaluation of the potential of total f lash rate trend to improve severe storm probability of detection (POD ) and lead time; and d) Validation of mesoscale model forecasts of th understorm initiation. The LMA data are distributed for ingest and di splay in the WFO AWIPS decision support system, and archived at each WFO for case studies, event playbacks, and assessments using the NWS Warning Event Simulator. The Huntsville WFO has upgraded severe thund erstorm warnings to verified tornado warnings and avoided a false ala rm on a severe storm through the added information on storm growth, intensification, and decay that can be deduced from the magnitude and temporal trend of total flash rates. We present detailed case studies of the observed relationships between lightning activity and tornadi c storm development as determined by radar reflectivity and velocity fields, and thunderstorms forecast by the Weather Research and Foreca st (WRF) model. From these collaborative studies, forecasters can eva luate the added value of total lightning data within the forecast and warning decision-making process (http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/sport) .

Goodman, S.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Analysis of the Orbiter's LH2 Feedline Flowliner

Work performed by Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) as part of an Independent Technical Assessment (ITA) for the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) is summarized. The ITA goal was to establish a flight rationale in light of a history of fatigue cracking due to flow induced vibrations in the feedline flowliners that supply liquid hydrogen to the space shuttle main engines. Prior deterministic analyses using worst-case assumptions predicted failure in a single flight. The current work formulated statistical models for dynamic loading and cryogenic fatigue crack growth properties, instead of using worst-case assumptions. Weight function solutions for bivariant stressing were developed to determine accurate crack "driving-forces". Monte Carlo simulations showed that low flowliner probabilities of failure (POF = 0.001 to 0.0001) are achievable, provided pre-flight inspections for cracks are performed with adequate probability of detection (POD)-specifically, 20/75 mils with 50%/99% POD. Measurements to confirm assumed POD curves are recommended. Since the computed POFs are very sensitive to the cyclic loads/stresses and the analysis of strain gage data revealed inconsistencies with the previous assumption of a single dominant vibrant mode, further work to reconcile this difference is recommended. It is possible that the unaccounted vibrational modes in the flight spectra could increase the computed POFs.

Bonacuse, Peter J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Confirmation Of Thick Whim At Z-0.1 In Sculptor Supercluster

This grant is associated to an XMM observation of the quasar QSO Q0056-363(PI: Dr. Roberto Maiolino), which is one of the brightest quasars in the X-ray sky, and it lies in the general direction of the Sculptor Supercluster, and behind it. We requested the observation to check a previous hint of existence of an absorption features by highly ionized gas at the redshift of the Supercluster, which we supposed to be the imprint of a Warm-Hot Intergalactic Medium filament connecting the already virialized structures in the Supercluster. The observation suffered a high background, and so the net exposure was considerably reduced compared to the requested exposure. Additionally the quasar turned out to be in a quite low level of activity. These two unfortunate facts made it impossible to confirm or rule-out at high resolution (i.e. with the RGS) the existence of the previously hinted OW1 K-alpha resonant line at the redshift of the Sculptor Supercluster, the new RGS data being sensitive only to equivalent width of unresolved absorption lines of about 30-50 mA at 1-sigma. The data, however, shows a very strong absorption line in a position different from the OVII/OVIII K-alpha at the redshift of the Supercluster. If this line is interpreted as OVII/OVIII K-alpha absorption, the redshift of this WHIM filament would lie in a region of the Universe where no visible virialized concentrations are present. This would confirm the relatively high probability of detecting WHIM filaments in apparent 'void' regions of the Universe (as previously suggested by our first detection of WHIM filaments at z greater than 0 along the line of sight to the blazar Mkn 421). A paper on the non-detection of any WHIM filament at the redshift of the Sculptor Supercluster, as well as on the detection of this putative WHIM filament in a 'void', will be shortly submitted to the ApJ.

Nicastro, Fabrizio↗
NASA NTRS2005

System Developed for Real-Time Blade-Flutter Monitoring in the Wind Tunnel

A real-time system has been developed to monitor flutter vibrations in turbomachinery. The system is designed for continuous processing of blade tip timing data at a rate of 10 MB/sec. A USB 2.0 interface provides uninterrupted real-time processing of the data, and the blade-tip arrival times are measured with a 50-MHz oscillator and a 24-bit pipelined architecture counter. The input stage includes a glitch catcher, which reduces the probability of detecting a ghost blade to negligible levels. A graphical user interface provides online interrogation of any blade tip from any light probe sensor. Alternatively, data from all blades and all sensors can be superimposed into a single composite scatter plot displaying the vibration amplitude of each blade.

Kurkov, Anatole P.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Nondestructive Evaluation of the Gimbal Joint Flowliner Slots in the Space Shuttle Main Propulsion System Hydrogen Feedline

Fatigue cracks were discovered in the STS-112 Liquid Hydrogen Feedline flowliners in 2002. This led to a development program aimed at providing nondestructive evaluation methods and techniques to verify the existence of these types of cracks in oval shaped slots cut into the ends of the feedlines above the bellows joints. These slots were used to improve flow dynamics and to facilitate cleaning in the bellow joint region. These types of fatigue cracks posed a possible metal debris ingestion threat for the Space Shuttle Main Engines, which attached to these particular joints. Results of this program produced three reliable inspection techniques utilizing the imaging of replisets with a Scanning Electron microscope, eddy current, and ultrasound. The program developed unique probes and fixtures and in the case of eddy current and ultrasound, provided qualification and certification of the particular techniques by various Design of Experiments and Probability of Detection studies utilizing multiple inspectors.

Suits, Michael W.↗
NASA NTRS2007

NDE Methods for the External Tank Spray on Foam Insulation

The foam thermal protection system (TPS) of the space shuttle External Tank (ET) has provided some unique challenges to the nondestructive testing community. Three nondestructive evaluation methods have been developed to identify defects in the foam TPS of the ET. Terahertz imaging and backscatter radiography have been developed to identify voids in thick foam regions while shearography has been developed to identify shallow delaminations, shallow voids and crush damage in the foam. The basic theory of operation along with factors, determined from a series of designed experiments, affecting the results of these methods will be described. Results from both test panels and flight tank inspections will be provided, along with predicted probability of detection estimates to show the range in defect sizes and types that can be readily detected.

Walker, James L.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Metal Whiskers: Failure Modes and Mitigation Strategies

Metal coatings especially tin, zinc and cadmium are unpredictably susceptible to the formation of electrically conductive, crystalline filaments referred to as metal whiskers. The use of such coatings in and around electrical systems presents a risk of electrical shorting. Examples of metal whisker formation are shown with emphasis on optical inspection techniques to improve probability of detection. The failure modes (i.e., electrical shorting behavior) associated with metal whiskers are described. Based on an almost 9- year long study, the benefits of polyurethane conformal coat (namely, Arathane 5750) to protect electrical conductors from whisker-induced short circuit anomalies is discussed.

Brusse, Jay A.↗
NASA NTRS2009

SWCX Emission from the Helium Focusing Cone - Model to Data Comparison

A model for heliospheric solar wind charge exchange (SWCX) X-ray emission is applied to a series of XMM-Newton observations of the interplanetary focusing cone of interstellar helium. The X-ray data are from three coupled observations of the South Ecliptic Pole (SEP, to observe the cone) and the Hubble Deep Field-North (HDFN. to monitor global variations of the SWCX emission due to variations in the solar wind) from the period 24 November to 15 December 2003. There is good qualitative agreement between the model predictions and thc data with the maximum SWCX flux observed at an ecliptic longitude of approx. 72deg, consistent with the central longitude of the He cone. We observe a total excess of 2.1 +/- 1.3 LU in the O VII line and 2.0 +/- 0.9 LU in the 0 VIII line. However. the SWCX emission model, which was adjusted for solar wind conditions appropriate for late 2003, predicts an excess from the He cone of only 0.5 LU and 0.2 LU, respectively, in the O VII and O VIII lines. We discuss thc model to data comparison and provide possible explanations for the discrepancies. We also qualitatively reexamine our SWCX n~ocicl predictions in the 1/4 keV band with data from the ROSAT All-Sky Survey towards the North and South Ecliptic Poles, when the He cone was probably first detected in soft X-rays.

Koutroumpa, D.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Processing and Probability Analysis of Pulsed Terahertz NDE of Corrosion under Shuttle Tile Data

This paper examines data processing and probability analysis of pulsed terahertz NDE scans of corrosion defects under a Shuttle tile. Pulsed terahertz data collected from an aluminum plate with fabricated corrosion defects and covered with a Shuttle tile is presented. The corrosion defects imaged were fabricated by electrochemically etching areas of various diameter and depth in the plate. In this work, the aluminum plate echo signal is located in the terahertz time-of-flight data and a threshold is applied to produce a binary image of sample features. Feature location and area are examined and identified as corrosion through comparison with the known defect layout. The results are tabulated with hit, miss, or false call information for a probability of detection analysis that is used to identify an optimal processing threshold.

Anastasi, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Application of Digital Radiography to Weld Inspection for the Space Shuttle External Fuel Tank

This slide presentation reviews NASA's use of digital radiography to inspect the welds of the external tanks used to hold the cryogenic fuels for the Space Shuttle Main Engines. NASA has had a goal of replacing a significant portion of film used to inspect the welds, with digital radiography. The presentation reviews the objectives for converting to a digital system from film, the characteristics of the digital system, the Probability of detection study, the qualification and implementation of the system.

Ussery, Warren↗
NASA NTRS2010

Replacement/Refurbishment of JSC/NASA POD Specimens

The NASA Special NDE certification process requires demonstration of NDE capability by test per NASA-STD-5009. This test is performed with fatigue cracked specimens containing very small cracks. The certification test results are usually based on binomial statistics and must meet a 90/95 Probability of Detection (POD). The assumption is that fatigue cracks are tightly closed, difficult to detect, and inspectors and processes passing such a test are well qualified for inspecting NASA fracture critical hardware. The JSC NDE laboratory has what may be the largest inventory that exists of such fatigue cracked NDE demonstration specimens. These specimens were produced by the hundreds in the late 1980s and early 1990s. None have been produced since that time and the condition and usability of the specimens are questionable.

Castner, Willard L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Upgrade Summer Severe Weather Tool in MIDDS

The goal of this task was to upgrade the severe weather database from the previous phase by adding weather observations from the years 2004 - 2009, re-analyze the data to determine the important parameters, make adjustments to the index weights depending on the analysis results, and update the MIDDS GUI. The added data increased the period of record from 15 to 21 years. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. Four of the stability indices showed increased severe weather predication. The Total Threat Score (TTS) of the previous work was verified for the warm season of 2009 with very good skill. The TTS Probability of Detection (POD) was 88% and the False alarm rate (FAR) of 8%. Based on the results of the analyses, the MIDDS Severe Weather Worksheet GUI was updated to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters and synoptic-scale dynamics.

Wheeler, Mark M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Recent Advancements in Lightning Jump Algorithm Work

In the past year, the primary objectives were to show the usefulness of total lightning as compared to traditional cloud-to-ground (CG) networks, test the lightning jump algorithm configurations in other regions of the country, increase the number of thunderstorms within our thunderstorm database, and to pinpoint environments that could prove difficult for any lightning jump configuration. A total of 561 thunderstorms have been examined in the past year (409 non-severe, 152 severe) from four regions of the country (North Alabama, Washington D.C., High Plains of CO/KS, and Oklahoma). Results continue to indicate that the 2 lightning jump algorithm configuration holds the most promise in terms of prospective operational lightning jump algorithms, with a probability of detection (POD) at 81%, a false alarm rate (FAR) of 45%, a critical success index (CSI) of 49% and a Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of 0.66. The second best performing algorithm configuration was the Threshold 4 algorithm, which had a POD of 72%, FAR of 51%, a CSI of 41% and an HSS of 0.58. Because a more complex algorithm configuration shows the most promise in terms of prospective operational lightning jump algorithms, accurate thunderstorm cell tracking work must be undertaken to track lightning trends on an individual thunderstorm basis over time. While these numbers for the 2 configuration are impressive, the algorithm does have its weaknesses. Specifically, low-topped and tropical cyclone thunderstorm environments are present issues for the 2 lightning jump algorithm, because of the suppressed vertical depth impact on overall flash counts (i.e., a relative dearth in lightning). For example, in a sample of 120 thunderstorms from northern Alabama that contained 72 missed events by the 2 algorithm 36% of the misses were associated with these two environments (17 storms).

Schultz, Christopher J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Influence of Satellite-Based Heterogeneous Vegetation Momentum Roughness on Mesoscale Model Dynamics During IHOP 2002

The sensitivity of mesoscale weather prediction model to a vegetation roughness initialization is investigated for the south central United States. Three different roughness databases are employed: i) a control or standard lookup table roughness that is a function only of land cover type, ii) a spatially heterogeneous roughness database previously derived using a physically based procedure and MODIS imagery, and iii) a MODIS climatologic roughness database that possesses the same spatial heterogeneity as (i) but with mean land class values from (ii). The model used is the Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF) coupled to the Community Land Model within the Land Information System (LIS). For each simulation, a statistical comparison is made between modeled results and ground observations from meteorological stations within the Oklahoma mesonet and surrounding region during IHOP20O2. A sensitivity analysis on the impact the MODIS-based roughness fields is also made through a time-series intercomparison of temperature bias, probability of detection (POD), average wind speed, boundary layer height, and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) the results that, for the current replacement of the standard land-cover type based roughness values with the satellite-derived fields statistically improves model performance for most of the observed variables. Further, the satellite-based roughness enhances the surface wind speed, PBL height and TKE production on the order of 3 to l0 percent, with a lesser effect over grassland and cropland domains, and the greater effect over mixed land cover domains

Jasinski, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2010

Accelerated Monte Carlo Simulation for Safety Analysis of the Advanced Airspace Concept

Safe separation of aircraft is a primary objective of any air traffic control system. An accelerated Monte Carlo approach was developed to assess the level of safety provided by a proposed next-generation air traffic control system. It combines features of fault tree and standard Monte Carlo methods. It runs more than one order of magnitude faster than the standard Monte Carlo method while providing risk estimates that only differ by about 10%. It also preserves component-level model fidelity that is difficult to maintain using the standard fault tree method. This balance of speed and fidelity allows sensitivity analysis to be completed in days instead of weeks or months with the standard Monte Carlo method. Results indicate that risk estimates are sensitive to transponder, pilot visual avoidance, and conflict detection failure probabilities.

Thipphavong, David↗
NASA NTRS2011

Advancements in the Development of an Operational Lightning Jump Algorithm for GOES-R GLM

Rapid increases in total lightning have been shown to precede the manifestation of severe weather at the surface. These rapid increases have been termed lightning jumps, and are the current focus of algorithm development for the GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM). Recent lightning jump algorithm work has focused on evaluation of algorithms in three additional regions of the country, as well as, markedly increasing the number of thunderstorms in order to evaluate the each algorithm s performance on a larger population of storms. Lightning characteristics of just over 600 thunderstorms have been studied over the past four years. The 2 lightning jump algorithm continues to show the most promise for an operational lightning jump algorithm, with a probability of detection of 82%, a false alarm rate of 35%, a critical success index of 57%, and a Heidke Skill Score of 0.73 on the entire population of thunderstorms. Average lead time for the 2 algorithm on all severe weather is 21.15 minutes, with a standard deviation of +/- 14.68 minutes. Looking at tornadoes alone, the average lead time is 18.71 minutes, with a standard deviation of +/-14.88 minutes. Moreover, removing the 2 lightning jumps that occur after a jump has been detected, and before severe weather is detected at the ground, the 2 lightning jump algorithm s false alarm rate drops from 35% to 21%. Cold season, low topped, and tropical environments cause problems for the 2 lightning jump algorithm, due to their relative dearth in lightning as compared to a supercellular or summertime airmass thunderstorm environment.

Shultz, Chris↗
NASA NTRS2011

Numerical Model Sensitivity to Heterogeneous Satellite Derived Vegetation Roughness

The sensitivity of a mesoscale weather prediction model to a 1 km satellite-based vegetation roughness initialization is investigated for a domain within the south central United States. Three different roughness databases are employed: i) a control or standard lookup table roughness that is a function only of land cover type, ii) a spatially heterogeneous roughness database, specific to the domain, that was previously derived using a physically based procedure and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery, and iii) a MODIS climatologic roughness database that like (i) is a function only of land cover type, but possesses domain specific mean values from (ii). The model used is the Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF) coupled to the Community Land Model within the Land Information System (LIS). For each simulation, a statistical comparison is made between modeled results and ground observations within a domain including Oklahoma, Eastern Arkansas, and Northwest Louisiana during a 4-day period within IHOP 2002. Sensitivity analysis compares the impact the three roughness initializations on time-series temperature, precipitation probability of detection (POD), average wind speed, boundary layer height, and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE). Overall, the results indicate that, for the current investigation, replacement of the standard look-up table values with the satellite-derived values statistically improves model performance for most observed variables. Such natural roughness heterogeneity enhances the surface wind speed, PBL height and TKE production up to 10 percent, with a lesser effect over grassland, and greater effect over mixed land cover domains.

Jasinski, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2011

An Overview of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm: Past, Present and Future Work

Rapid increases in total lightning prior to the onset of severe and hazardous weather have been observed for several decades. These rapid increases are known as lightning jumps and can precede the occurrence of severe weather by tens of minutes. Over the past decade, a significant effort has been made to quantify lightning jump behavior in relation to its utility as a predictor of severe and hazardous weather. Based on a study of 34 thunderstorms that occurred in the Tennessee Valley, early work conducted in our group at Huntsville determined that it was indeed possible to create a reasonable operational lightning jump algorithm (LJA) based on a statistical framework relying on the variance behavior of the lightning trending signal. We the expanded this framework and tested several variance-related LJA configurations on a much larger sample of 87 severe and non severe thunderstorms. This study determined that a configuration named the "2(sigma)" algorithm had the most promise in development of the operational LJA with a probability of detection (POD) of 87%, a false alarm rate (FAR) of 33%, a Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of 0.75. The 2(sigma) algorithm was then tested on an even larger sample of 711 thunderstorms of all types from four regions of the country where total lightning measurement capability existed. The result was very encouraging.Despite the larger number of storms and the inclusion of different regions of the country, the POD remained high (79%), the FAR was low (36%) and HSS was solid (0.71). Average lead time from jump to severe weather occurrence was 20.65 minutes, with a standard deviation of +/- 15 minutes. Also, trends in total lightning were compared to cloud to ground (CG) lightning trends, and it was determined that total lightning trends had a higher POD (79% vs 66%), lower FAR (36% vs 54 %) and a better HSS (0.71 vs 0.55). From the 711-storm case study it was determined that a majority of missed events were due to severe weather producing thunderstorms in low flashing environments. The latest efforts have been geared toward examining these low flashing storms in order to adjust the algorithm for such storms, thus enhancing the capability of the LJA. Future work will test the algorithm in real time using current satellite and radar based cell tracking methods, as well as, comparing total lightning jump occurrence to both satellite based and ground base observations of thunderstorms to create correlations between lightning jumps and the observed structures within thunderstorms. Finally this algorithm will need to be tested using Geostationary Lightning Mapper proxy data to transition the algorithm from VHF ground based lightning measurements to lower frequency space-based lightning measurements.

Schultz, Christopher J.↗