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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

Physical Models of Layered Polar Firn Brightness Temperatures from 0.5 to 2 GHz

We investigate physical effects influencing 0.5-2 GHz brightness temperatures of layered polar firn to support the Ultra Wide Band Software Defined Radiometer (UWBRAD) experiment to be conducted in Greenland and in Antarctica. We find that because ice particle grain sizes are very small compared to the 0.5-2 GHz wavelengths, volume scattering effects are small. Variations in firn density over cm- to m-length scales, however, cause significant effects. Both incoherent and coherent models are used to examine these effects. Incoherent models include a 'cloud model' that neglects any reflections internal to the ice sheet, and the DMRT-ML and MEMLS radiative transfer codes that are publicly available. The coherent model is based on the layered medium implementation of the fluctuation dissipation theorem for thermal microwave radiation from a medium having a nonuniform temperature. Density profiles are modeled using a stochastic approach, and model predictions are averaged over a large number of realizations to take into account an averaging over the radiometer footprint. Density profiles are described by combining a smooth average density profile with a spatially correlated random process to model density fluctuations. It is shown that coherent model results after ensemble averaging depend on the correlation lengths of the vertical density fluctuations. If the correlation length is moderate or long compared with the wavelength (approximately 0.6x longer or greater for Gaussian correlation function without regard for layer thinning due to compaction), coherent and incoherent model results are similar (within approximately 1 K). However, when the correlation length is short compared to the wavelength, coherent model results are significantly different from the incoherent model by several tens of kelvins. For a 10-cm correlation length, the differences are significant between 0.5 and 1.1 GHz, and less for 1.1-2 GHz. Model results are shown to be able to match the v-pol SMOS data closely and predict the h-pol data for small observation angles.

layered polar firn emission↗
NASA NTRS2019

Automated Classification of Transient Contamination in Stationary Acoustic Data

An automated procedure for the classification of transient contamination of stationary acoustic data is proposed and analyzed. The procedure requires the assumption that the stationary acoustic data of interest can be modeled as a band-limited, Gaussian random process. It also requires that the transient contamination be of higher variance than the acoustic data of interest. When these assumptions are satisfied, it is a blind separation procedure, aside from the initial input specifying how to subdivide the time series of interest. No a priori threshold criterion is required. Simulation results show that for a sufficient number of blocks, the method performs well, as long as the occasional false positive or false negative is acceptable. The effectiveness of the procedure is demonstrated with an application to experimental wind tunnel acoustic test data which are contaminated by hydrodynamic gusts.

Bahr, Christopher J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Long-Term Persistence of Solar Activity

We examine the question of whether or not the non-periodic Variations in solar activity are caused by a white-noise random process. The Hurst exponent, which characterizes the persistence of a time series, is evaluated for the series 14C Data for the time interval from about 6000BC to 1950 AD.

Solar↗
NASA NTRS2019

Automated Classification of Transient Contamination in Stationary Acoustic Data

An automated procedure for the classification of transient contamination of stationary acoustic data is proposed and analyzed. The procedure requires the assumption that the stationary acoustic data of interest can be modeled as a band-limited, Gaussian random process. It also requires that the transient contamination be of higher variance than the acoustic data of interest. When these assumptions are satisfied, it is a blind separation procedure, aside from the initial input specifying how to subdivide the time series of interest. No a priori threshold criterion is required. Simulation results show that for a sufficient number of blocks, the method performs well, as long as the occasional false positive or false negative is acceptable. The effectiveness of the procedure is demonstrated with an application to experimental wind tunnel acoustic test data which are contaminated by hydrodynamic gusts.

binary classification↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Selection of Alternator Voltage for Dynamic Radioisotope Power Systems

In this paper, we present a study to select an appropriate alternator voltage of the free-piston Stirling convertors (FPSC) for efficient and light Dynamic Radioisotope Power Systems (DRPS). With a system thermal-to-electrical efficiency 3-4 times greater than radioisotope thermoelectric generator (RTG) systems and a higher power density than Brayton systems in the power range of interest for radioisotope-powered systems, Stirling-based DRPS is uniquely suited to benefit upcoming NASA missions. Much effort has been invested in the design and optimization of the thermal, mechanical, and materials aspects of FPSCs, but the electrical aspect has been more nebulous. Therefore, in this paper, a preliminary study will be presented to select the appropriate Stirling alternator voltage to develop a light and efficient system using available flight components. Power conversion systems face a trade between efficiency and system volume/mass with the optimal trade being determined by the application. Neglecting non-idealities related to insulation thickness and winding packing factor and assuming a constant winding area, alternator efficiency is independent of alternator voltage. Because wire size and alternator current can be traded against turn count and alternator voltage without impacting efficiency, the guidance on the optimal design comes from analysis of the controller power electronics and the remainder of the system. Properties of available flight-qualified electrical components, such as rated voltage/current and on-resistance, typically come in discrete values instead of a continuous range of values. With multiple components being required to form the power conversion stage of the controller, each limited to incremental values, a continuous optimization is of little benefit. Instead of a continuous optimization, a random process using properties of the available components can be used to develop a Pareto design front indicating the optimized trade space. The most advantageous trade between system efficiency and mass for the system at hand can then be selected from the range of feasible designs. In the final paper, the design process, assumptions, and preliminary results will be presented.

Free-Piston Stirling Convertor Controller, Dynamic↗
DOE OSTI2023

Degree-preserving graph dynamics: a versatile process to construct random networks

Real-world networks evolve over time via the addition or removal of vertices and edges. In current network evolution models, vertex degree varies or grows arbitrarily. A recently introduced degree-preserving network growth (DPG) family of models preserves vertex degree, resulting in structures significantly different from and more diverse than previous models. Despite its degree preserving property, the DPG model is able to replicate the output of several well-known real-world network growth models. Simulations showed that many real-world networks can also be constructed from small seed graphs via the DPG process. Here, we start the development of a rigorous mathematical theory underlying the DPG family of network growth models. We prove that the degree sequence of the output of some of the well-known, real-world network growth models can be reconstructed via the DPG process, using proper parametrization. We also show that the general problem of deciding whether a simple graph can be obtained via the DPG process from a small seed (DPG feasibility) is, however, NP-complete. In conclusion, it is an intriguing open problem to uncover whether there is a structural reason behind the DPG-constructability of real-world networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1993

Investigation for improving Global Positioning System (GPS) orbits using a discrete sequential estimator and stochastic models of selected physical processes

GEODYNII is a conventional batch least-squares differential corrector computer program with deterministic models of the physical environment. Conventional algorithms were used to process differenced phase and pseudorange data to determine eight-day Global Positioning system (GPS) orbits with several meter accuracy. However, random physical processes drive the errors whose magnitudes prevent improving the GPS orbit accuracy. To improve the orbit accuracy, these random processes should be modeled stochastically. The conventional batch least-squares algorithm cannot accommodate stochastic models, only a stochastic estimation algorithm is suitable, such as a sequential filter/smoother. Also, GEODYNII cannot currently model the correlation among data values. Differenced pseudorange, and especially differenced phase, are precise data types that can be used to improve the GPS orbit precision. To overcome these limitations and improve the accuracy of GPS orbits computed using GEODYNII, we proposed to develop a sequential stochastic filter/smoother processor by using GEODYNII as a type of trajectory preprocessor. Our proposed processor is now completed. It contains a correlated double difference range processing capability, first order Gauss Markov models for the solar radiation pressure scale coefficient and y-bias acceleration, and a random walk model for the tropospheric refraction correction. The development approach was to interface the standard GEODYNII output files (measurement partials and variationals) with software modules containing the stochastic estimator, the stochastic models, and a double differenced phase range processing routine. Thus, no modifications to the original GEODYNII software were required. A schematic of the development is shown. The observational data are edited in the preprocessor and the data are passed to GEODYNII as one of its standard data types. A reference orbit is determined using GEODYNII as a batch least-squares processor and the GEODYNII measurement partial (FTN90) and variational (FTN80, V-matrix) files are generated. These two files along with a control statement file and a satellite identification and mass file are passed to the filter/smoother to estimate time-varying parameter states at each epoch, improved satellite initial elements, and improved estimates of constant parameters.

Goad, Clyde C.↗
DOE OSTI2018

On the Coupling Time of the Heat-Bath Process for the Fortuin–Kasteleyn Random–Cluster Model

We consider the coupling from the past implementation of the random–cluster heat-bath process, and study its random running time, or coupling time. We focus on hypercubic lattices embedded on tori, in dimensions one to three, with cluster fugacity at least one. We make a number of conjectures regarding the asymptotic behaviour of the coupling time, motivated by rigorous results in one dimension and Monte Carlo simulations in dimensions two and three. Amongst our findings, we observe that, for generic parameter values, the distribution of the appropriately standardized coupling time converges to a Gumbel distribution, and that the standard deviation of the coupling time is asymptotic to an explicit universal constant multiple of the relaxation time. Perhaps surprisingly, we observe these results to hold both off criticality, where the coupling time closely mimics the coupon collector’s problem, and also at the critical point, provided the cluster fugacity is below the value at which the transition becomes discontinuous. Finally, we consider analogous questions for the single-spin Ising heat-bath process.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatiotemporal Downscaling Model for Solar Irradiance Forecast Using Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest and Gaussian Process

Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity estimation requires high-resolution, site-specific solar irradiance data to account for localized variability. However, global datasets, such as the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), provide regional averages that fail to capture the fine-scale fluctuations critical for large-scale grid integration. This limitation is particularly relevant in the context of increasing distributed energy resources (DERs) penetration, such as rooftop PV. Additionally, it is critical to the implementation of the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 2222, which facilitates DER participation in U.S. bulk power markets. To address this challenge, this study evaluates Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest (NNRF) and Nearest-Neighbor Gaussian Process (NNGP) models for spatiotemporal downscaling of global solar irradiance data. By leveraging historical irradiance and meteorological data, these models incorporate spatial, temporal, and feature-based correlations to enhance local irradiance predictions. The NNRF model, a machine-learning approach, prioritizes computational efficiency and predictive accuracy, while the NNGP model offers a level of interpretability and prediction uncertainty by numerically quantifying correlations and dependencies in the data. Model validation was conducted using day-ahead predictions. The results showed that the average Goodness of Fit (GoF) of the NNRF model of 90.61% across all eight sites outperformed the GoF of the NNGP of 85.88%. Additionally, the computational speed of NNRF was 2.5 times faster than the NNGP. Finally, the NNGP displayed polynomial scaling while the NNRF scaled linearly with increasing number of nearest neighbors. Additional validation of the model on five sites in Puerto Rico further confirmed the superiority of the NNRF model over the NNGP model. These findings highlight the robustness and computational efficiency of NNRF for large-scale solar irradiance downscaling, making it a strong candidate for improving PV capacity estimation and real-time electricity market integration for DERs.

Asiedu, Shadrack (ORCID:0009000646004826)↗
NASA NTRS1973

Robot vision.

The work reported had been undertaken to develop hardware that would guide an automatic vehicle in the exploration of the surface of Mars, recognize objects, and report the findings to earth. Approaches for automatically determining the range and shape of objects are discussed, giving attention to the automatic comparison of one scan line of the left with one scan line of the right TV image. Methods of mapping binocular space into match space are considered together with the use of a model in match space, rules for processing random-dot stereograms, the elimination of spurious matches, random-square stereograms, questions of the processing of a real scene, and aspects of range accuracy. Methods of computation for extracting other features are also discussed along with stereo TV cameras and approaches for reconstructing the appearance of a scene.

Sutro, L. L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Operation Optimization using Reinforcement Learning with Integrated Artificial Reasoning Framework

In large and complex systems, operational decision-making requires a systematic analysis with a vast amount of data from both process parameters and component status monitoring. In this paper, we present an integrated artificial reasoning approach for system state transition models that can help operational decision-making with explainable and traceable reasoning. The integrated artificial reasoning framework is a physics-based approach of defining the system structure in a Bayesian network, so we leveraged it in a Markov decision process (MDP) for finding optimal operational solutions. In our proposed framework, the MDP is implemented on a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), which represents causalities in a system. The multilevel flow modeling was utilized in order to extract these causalities in a more efficient and objective manner. Since multilevel flow modeling is based on the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws, the target system is decomposed into several mass, energy, and information structures, which serve as the basis for a DBN. The MDP consists of the processes of finding a solution for the Bellman equation, which can be derived from the conditional probability equations of the constructed DBN. System operators can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from the component degradation process or random failures. We analyzed a simplified example system to illustrate finding an optimal operational policy with this approach.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Jamming and Tiling in Aggregation of Rectangles

We study a random aggregation process involving rectangular clusters. In each aggregation event, two rectangles are chosen at random and if they have a compatible side, either vertical or horizontal, they merge along that side to form a larger rectangle. Starting with N identical squares, this elementary event is repeated until the system reaches a jammed state where each rectangle has two unique sides. The average number of frozen rectangles scales as N α in the large-N limit. The growth exponent α = 0.229 ± 0.002 characterizes statistical properties of the jammed state and the time-dependent evolution. We also study an aggregation process where rectangles are embedded in a plane and interact only with nearest neighbors. In the jammed state, neighboring rectangles are incompatible, and these frozen rectangles form a tiling of the two-dimensional domain. Here in this case, the final number of rectangles scales linearly with system size.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Lithium-Ion Battery Diagnostics Using Electrochemical Impedance via Machine-Learning

Diagnosing battery states such as health, state-of-charge, or temperature is crucial for ensuring the safety and reliability of electrochemical energy storage systems. While some states, such as temperature, may be measured using cheap sensors, accurate diagnosis of battery health metrics usually requires time-consuming performance measurements, making them infeasible for use in real-world operation. These health metrics can be measured during lab-testing and then estimated on-line using predictive life models or via state observer algorithms such as Kalman filters, but these predictive methods should be supplemented by actual measurement of battery health whenever possible to ensure reliability. Rapid measurement of battery health may be done by various types of fast diagnostic techniques such as electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS), which can be performed in only a few minutes and require only a fraction of the energy and power needed for a full charge and discharge measurement. But there is a substantial challenge for estimating battery health using EIS data, as EIS is sensitive to cell temperature, state-of-charge, current, and resting time in addition to health. Thus, utilizing EIS data to predict battery capacity requires correcting for all these additional variables, a task that is extremely difficult to handle analytically. This talk utilizes machine-learning methods to estimate the effectiveness of battery capacity prediction from EIS data, leveraging a data set of hundreds of EIS measurements recorded at varying temperature and state-of-charge throughout a 500-day aging study of 32 commercial, large-format NMC-Graphite lithium-ion batteries. Using EIS as input to machine-learning models is complicated by the nonlinear response of impedance to battery health, temperature, and state-of-charge, as well as the collinearity between the impedance response at neighboring frequencies, which can easily lead to overfit models. To train robust models, features from EIS data need to be extracted from the data or some subset of critical frequencies selected. Many approaches for extracting and selecting features from EIS data from electrochemical analysis and machine-learning fields were identified for analysis: using the entire raw spectra; selection of one, two, or many frequencies from the entire spectra; selecting interesting points from the EIS measurement using domain knowledge; fitting EIS with an equivalent-circuit model; calculating statistics on the raw impedance values; and reducing the dimensionality of the data using unsupervised linear (principal component analysis) and non-linear (uniform manifold approximation and projection) methods. These approaches were rigorously compared using a machine-learning pipeline approach, training linear, Gaussian process, and random forest regression models and quantifying performance using cross-validation as well as a held-out test set. An artificial neural network model trained on the raw spectra was also tested. Promising pipelines were fine-tuned via Bayesian hyperparameter optimization using cross-validation loss and training with class-specific weights to counter data set imbalance. The most reliable method for utilizing impedance in this work was the selection of two optimal frequencies through an exhaustive search, resulting in about 2% mean absolute error on test data for both Gaussian process and random forest model architectures. Interrogation of a variety of models reveals critical frequencies of 100 Hz and 103 Hz for this data set, though the optimal set of frequencies is not necessarily intuitive, i.e., the best performing models are not simply those that use impedance at frequencies that have the highest correlation to the relative discharge capacity. The best performing model is an ensemble model, which is able to predict battery capacity with 1.9% mean absolute error for unseen cells using impedance recorded at a variety of temperatures and states-of-charge.

battery↗