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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17

Bayesian Symbolic Regression: Addressing Challenges in Estimating Fractional Bayes Factors and Application to Fatigue Crack Growth Modeling

This research pioneers advancements in computational mechanics by integrating Bayesian-based uncertainty quantification into symbolic regression, specifically focusing on the critical task of accurately estimating the fractional Bayes factor for selecting arbitrary equations. In our exploration, we rigorously study two prominent methods—sequential Monte Carlo and the Laplace approximation—employed for computing the fractional Bayes factor. Our findings underscore the limitations of the Laplace approximation, revealing its diminished accuracy in nonlinear and multimodal scenarios. Specifically, the Laplace approximation is shown to underpredict fractional Bayes factor on a wide set of equations associated with a symbolic regression benchmark. This comparative analysis sheds light on the nuanced performance of these techniques, guiding researchers toward more informed choices in uncertainty quantification within symbolic regression. Furthermore, we showcase the practical utility of these enhanced symbolic regression tools through their application to a real-world problem in fatigue crack growth modeling, emphasizing their efficacy in capturing the complexities of mechanical systems.

Geoffrey Bomarito↗

Spontaneous magnon decays from nonrelativistic time-reversal symmetry breaking in altermagnets

Quasiparticles are central to condensed matter physics, but their stability can be undermined by quantum many-body interactions. Magnons, i.e., quasiparticles in quantum magnets, are particularly intriguing because their properties are governed by both real and spin space. While crystal symmetries may be low, spin interactions often remain approximately isotropic, limiting spontaneous magnon decay. Textbook wisdom holds that collinear Heisenberg magnets follow a dichotomy: ferromagnets host stable magnons, while antiferromagnetic magnons may decay depending on dispersion curvature. Up to now, relativistic spin-orbit coupling and noncollinear order that connect spin space to real space were shown to introduce more complex magnon instability mechanisms. Here, we show that even in nonrelativistic isotropic collinear systems, this conventional dichotomy is disrupted in altermagnets. Altermagnets, a newly identified class of collinear magnets, exhibit compensated spin order with nonrelativistic time-reversal symmetry breaking and even-parity band splitting. Using kinematic analysis, nonlinear spin-wave theory, and quantum simulations, we reveal that even weak band splitting opens a decay phase space, driving quasiparticle breakdown. Additionally, 𝑑-wave altermagnets form a rare “island of stability” at the Brillouin-zone center. Furthermore, our findings establish a quasiparticle stability trichotomy in collinear Heisenberg magnets and position altermagnets as a promising platform for unconventional spin dynamics.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Virtual Power Plant Architecture and Resilient Design

Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) represent a fundamental shift in electric grid operations, aggregating distributed energy resources (DERs) such as solar panels and battery storage to deliver utility-scale grid services traditionally provided by centralized power plants. This report examines the unique architectural, operational, and digital assurance considerations that distinguish VPPs from conventional utility infrastructure as they scale from pilot projects to mainstream deployment across the United States. While VPPs offer significant opportunities for grid modernization and enhanced flexibility, their distributed, multi-stakeholder architecture introduces distinct security challenges that differ fundamentally from traditional generation facilities. The analysis identifies risks in VPP operations, including device-level security gaps, platform vulnerabilities, and communication protocol weaknesses that create expanded attack surfaces compared to centralized power plants. Through examination of real-world incidents and emerging threat patterns, the report demonstrates how some VPPs' reliance on consumer-owned devices, public internet infrastructure, and complex vendor ecosystems require new approaches to digital assurance and operational security. The findings provide practical guidance for utilities, regulators, and aggregators to implement robust security frameworks and operational best practices essential for maintaining grid reliability as VPP deployment accelerates under the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 2222 and related regulatory initiatives.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A versatile system for processing geostationary satellite data with run-time visualization capability

To better predict global climate change, scientists are developing climate models that require interdisciplinary and collaborative efforts in their building. We are currently involved in several such projects but will briefly discuss activities in support of two such complementary projects: the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program of the Department of Energy and Sequoia 2000, a joint venture of the University of California, the private sector, and government agencies. Our contribution to the ARM program is to investigate the role of clouds on the top of the atmosphere and on surface radiance fields through the data analysis of surface and satellite observations and complex modeling of the interaction of radiation with clouds. One of our first ARM research activities involves the computation of the broadband shortwave surface irradiance from satellite observations. Geostationary satellite images centered over the first ARM observation site are received hourly over the Internet network and processed in real time to compute hourly and daily composite shortwave irradiance fields. The images and the results are transferred via a high-speed network to the Sequoia 2000 storage facility in Berkeley, where they are archived These satellite-derived results are compared with the surface observations to evaluate the accuracy of the satellite estimate and the spatial representation of the surface observations. In developing the software involved in calculating the surface shortwave irradiance, we have produced an environment whereby we can easily modify and monitor the data processing as required. Through the principles of modular programming, we have developed software that is easily modified as new algorithms for computation are developed or input data availability changes. In addition, the software was designed so that it could be run from an interactive, icon-driven, graphical interface, TCL-TK, developed by Sequoia 2000 participants. In this way, the data flow can be interactively assessed and altered as needed. In this environment, the intermediate data processing 'images' can be viewed, enabling the investigator to easily monitor the various data processing steps as they progress. Additionally, this environment allows the rapid testing of new processing modules and allows their effects to be visually compared with previous results.

Landsfeld, M.↗

Slow Crack Growth and Fatigue Life Prediction of Ceramic Components Subjected to Variable Load History

Present capabilities of the NASA CARES/Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code include probabilistic life prediction of ceramic components subjected to fast fracture, slow crack growth (stress corrosion), and cyclic fatigue failure modes. Currently, this code has the capability to compute the time-dependent reliability of ceramic structures subjected to simple time-dependent loading. For example, in slow crack growth (SCG) type failure conditions CARES/Life can handle the cases of sustained and linearly increasing time-dependent loads, while for cyclic fatigue applications various types of repetitive constant amplitude loads can be accounted for. In real applications applied loads are rarely that simple, but rather vary with time in more complex ways such as, for example, engine start up, shut down, and dynamic and vibrational loads. In addition, when a given component is subjected to transient environmental and or thermal conditions, the material properties also vary with time. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate a methodology capable of predicting the time-dependent reliability of components subjected to transient thermomechanical loads that takes into account the change in material response with time. In this paper, the dominant delayed failure mechanism is assumed to be SCG. This capability has been added to the NASA CARES/Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code, which has also been modified to have the ability of interfacing with commercially available FEA codes executed for transient load histories. An example involving a ceramic exhaust valve subjected to combustion cycle loads is presented to demonstrate the viability of this methodology and the CARES/Life program.

Jadaan, Osama↗

3D ion gyro-orbit heat load predictions for NSTX-U

Abstract High power tokamaks operate with divertor heat loads capable of destroying the plasma facing components (PFCs). High fidelity heat load predictions are necessary to ascertain the PFC state for design and during operation. Typical heat flux calculations are 2D, time invariant, and assume that power flows directly along the magnetic field lines (the optical approximation). These assumptions neglect the complex 3D geometries employed to protect the PFCs, the time varying nature of the plasma and PFC thermal state, and the helical trajectories of ions with finite Larmor radii (the gyro-orbit approximation). An integrated software framework, the heat flux engineering analysis toolkit (HEAT), was developed to generate time varying optical heat loads applied to real engineering computer aided design (CAD) (Looby et al 2022 Fusion Sci. Technol. 78 10–27). Recently, an ion-gyro orbit module has been added to HEAT. This module calculates the helical trajectories of ions as they gyrate about the magnetic field lines using kinetic theory macro-particles to accelerate the calculation. First, the new gyro-orbit module will be presented. Next, a comparison to existing research is performed. Finally, an analysis of the gyro-orbit heat loads for NSTX-U is presented for diverted discharges using the engineering CAD models utilized for PFC fabrication. Including these gyro-orbit effects can enhance the PFC performance by ‘smearing’ out the magnetic shadows associated with the castellated fish-scaled geometry. Simultaneously, the helical trajectories can degrade performance when they load narrow regions on edges and corners with high heat fluxes. Analysis of the trade-offs between these competing effects is included, and regions for further investigation are identified.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Tensor Text-Mining Methods for Malware Identification and Detection, Malware Dynamics Characterization, and Hosts Ranking

Malware is one of the most persistent and costly cyber threats endangering reputation, confidentiality, integrity, and availability for organizations and national security. Consequently, many of the incident detection and prevention systems, and incident responders have begun to utilize machine learning as a helper in the fight against malware and other cyber threats. However, cyber defenders rely on interpretability and generalizability, yet the popular machine learning methods are black-box and often use traditional supervised solutions that do not generalize to novel malware. Therefore, there is a need to improve the existing solutions. At the same time, the majority of the prior research ignored essential evaluation criteria when reporting the results of their methods, which disables the safe reproducibility of the methods in a production environment. Tensor decomposition, on the other hand, enables interpretable unsupervised analysis of the large-scale data for the discovery of hidden patterns. Our findings, performed on real-world and large-scale experiments, show that tensor factorization-based methods yield performance results that surpasses or competes with existing supervised solutions with the added benefit of interpretability and generalizability. With the ability to analyze complex and large-scale data using tensors, we report results that reflect real-world production environments. We propose to develop new game- changing tools for malware identification and characterization that can trace malware evolution, rank the infected or malicious hosts, and streamline the work of incident response teams, malware analysts, and incident detection and prevention systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A new form of the Saint-Venant equations for variable topography

The solution stability of river models using the one-dimensional (1D) Saint-Venant equations can be easily undermined when source terms in the discrete equations do not satisfy the Lipschitz smoothness condition for partial differential equations. Although instability issues have been previously noted, they are typically treated as model implementation issues rather than as underlying problems associated with the form of the governing equations. This study proposes a new reference slope form of the Saint-Venant equations to ensure smooth slope source terms and eliminate one source of potential numerical oscillations. It is shown that a simple algebraic transformation of channel geometry provides a smooth reference slope while preserving the correct cross-section flow area and the total Piezometric pressure gradient that drives the flow. The reference slope method ensures the slope source term in the governing equations is Lipschitz continuous while maintaining all the underlying complexity of the real-world geometry. The validity of the mathematical concept is demonstrated with the open-source Simulation Program for River Networks (SPRNT) model in a series of artificial test cases and a simulation of a small urban creek. Validation comparisons are made with analytical solutions and the Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model. The new method reduces numerical oscillations and instabilities without requiring ad hoc smoothing algorithms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A simplified modal plotting technique for the representation of complex structural models

A plotting method has been developed that has proven to be useful in rapidly defining the mode shapes of a complex spacecraft. The reduction of the complex model to a simple stick plot is accomplished by augmenting the existing NASTRAN plot package with constrained plot elements. Both the existing NASTRAN modal plot package and the stick plots of a representative mode are presented for comparison. The NASTRAN plot package provides the capability of generating modal deformations (mode shapes) resulting from real eigenvalue analysis. These modal deformations of the structural model may be displayed in the deformed shape either alone or superimposed on the undeformed shape. Another available method of displaying the modal deformations is by means of displacement vectors at the grid points

Hanlein, S. L.↗

Unit cell geometry of multiaxial preforms for structural composites

The objective of this study is to investigate the yarn geometry of multiaxial preforms. The importance of multiaxial preforms for structural composites is well recognized by the industry but, to exploit their full potential, engineering design rules must be established. This study is a step in that direction. In this work the preform geometry for knitted and braided preforms was studied by making a range of well designed samples and studying them by photo microscopy. The structural geometry of the preforms is related to the processing parameters. Based on solid modeling and B-spline methodology a software package is developed. This computer code enables real time structural representations of complex fiber architecture based on the rule of preform manufacturing. The code has the capability of zooming and section plotting. These capabilities provide a powerful means to study the effect of processing variables on the preform geometry. the code also can be extended to an auto mesh generator for downstream structural analysis using finite element method. This report is organized into six sections. In the first section the scope and background of this work is elaborated. In section two the unit cell geometries of braided and multi-axial warp knitted preforms is discussed. The theoretical frame work of yarn path modeling and solid modeling is presented in section three. The thin section microscopy carried out to observe the structural geometry of the preforms is the subject in section four. The structural geometry is related to the processing parameters in section five. Section six documents the implementation of the modeling techniques into the computer code MP-CAD. A user manual for the software is also presented here. The source codes and published papers are listed in the Appendices.

Ko, Frank↗

Spacetime pq theory for AC and DC electric power systems

The 50/60 Hz alternating current (AC) electric power has been the standard and most flexible energy source powering our modern societies for one and a half centuries since the war of the currents: AC versus direct current (DC). A reactive power concept that was introduced at the beginning of the AC power was very useful for circuit/system analysis, design, control, optimization, and ultimately for more efficient and stable generation, transmission, distribution, and consumption. The initial reactive power theory was based on single-phase sinusoidal AC power to capture inductive and capacitive power that yields to net-zero average power over one fundamental cycle. Soon it was expanded to non-sinusoidal AC power and finally to instantaneous three-phase AC power. However, these reactive power theories remain separate and limited to special cases and have never been consolidated and made valid to all cases. Today, more widespread adoption of power electronics and renewable energy is bringing back DC power into the electric grids. The reactive power concept has never been applied to DC power systems. There is no reactive power in DC power systems according to the existing reactive power theories. Do DC power systems really have no reactive power? Capacitors and inductors are widely used in DC just like in AC power systems. Are they not reactive power components? Why are they different from their AC counterparts? Furthermore, are batteries active or reactive power components? What about active devices like power converters (or inverters) with AC (or DC) on one side and DC (or AC) on the other? Do they generate or consume reactive power? Finally, what about AC and DC hybrid power systems? How to define reactive power in such a complex power system that has a multitude of loads, buses, and sources? Is there reactive power between any two loads, any two buses, or any two sources in a power system and what is the total reactive power in such a complex power system as a whole? As the motivation and goal of this paper to answer the above basic questions, to unify the existing AC reactive power theories and to ultimately provide theoretical and insightful guidance for system analysis, design, control, efficiency, optimization, and operation of complex power systems, a concept of spacetime (both spatial and temporal) active and reactive power (pq) theory—the spatiotemporal aspect of active and reactive power—is developed for both AC and DC power systems. The theoretical definitions and physical meanings of the spacetime reactive power will be developed, and real applications and thought experiments/cases/exercises will be explored and discussed. The developed mathematics to define the active (or real) and reactive (or imaginary) power— p and q respectively by dot (scalar) and cross (vector) products of multi-dimension spacetime vectors and time-space mapping principle/law can have some fundamental implications as well.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Deep Learning and Likelihood Approaches for Viral Phylogeography Converge on the Same Answers Whether the Inference Model Is Right or Wrong

Abstract Analysis of phylogenetic trees has become an essential tool in epidemiology. Likelihood-based methods fit models to phylogenies to draw inferences about the phylodynamics and history of viral transmission. However, these methods are often computationally expensive, which limits the complexity and realism of phylodynamic models and makes them ill-suited for informing policy decisions in real-time during rapidly developing outbreaks. Likelihood-free methods using deep learning are pushing the boundaries of inference beyond these constraints. In this paper, we extend, compare, and contrast a recently developed deep learning method for likelihood-free inference from trees. We trained multiple deep neural networks using phylogenies from simulated outbreaks that spread among 5 locations and found they achieve close to the same levels of accuracy as Bayesian inference under the true simulation model. We compared robustness to model misspecification of a trained neural network to that of a Bayesian method. We found that both models had comparable performance, converging on similar biases. We also implemented a method of uncertainty quantification called conformalized quantile regression that we demonstrate has similar patterns of sensitivity to model misspecification as Bayesian highest posterior density (HPD) and greatly overlap with HPDs, but have lower precision (more conservative). Finally, we trained and tested a neural network against phylogeographic data from a recent study of the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic in Europe and obtained similar estimates of region-specific epidemiological parameters and the location of the common ancestor in Europe. Along with being as accurate and robust as likelihood-based methods, our trained neural networks are on average over 3 orders of magnitude faster after training. Our results support the notion that neural networks can be trained with simulated data to accurately mimic the good and bad statistical properties of the likelihood functions of generative phylogenetic models.

Evolutionary Biology↗

Mariner 9 - Image processing and products.

The purpose of this paper is to describe the system for the display, processing, and production of image data products created to support the Mariner 9 Television Experiment. Of necessity, the system was large in order to respond to the needs of a large team of scientists with a broad scope of experimental objectives. The desire to generate processed data products as rapidly as possible to take advantage of adaptive planning during the mission, coupled with the complexities introduced by the nature of the vidicon camera, greatly increased the scale of the ground image processing effort. This paper describes the systems that carried out the processes and delivered the products necessary for real-time and near-real-time analyses. References are made to the computer algorithms used for the different levels of decalibration and analysis.

Levinthal, E. C.↗

Computational analyses of crystal growth

Two important aspects of Hg/Cd/Te crystal growth processes are discussed. First, the thermal field and second, the fluid movement in the melt zone. The thermal analysis includes numerical calculation of axisymmetric heat conduction within the sample. It also includes a three-dimensional radiation model to calculate the radiative heat exchange between the furnace and the crystal as determined by the complex geometry of the furnace and the adiabatic shield. The thermal analysis also includes a crystal conductivity which is dependent on temperature and composition. To tackle the fluid flow aspect of the problem, an attempt was made to use a newly developed incompressible flow code based on the slight compressibility, and hence the finite sound speed, of all real fluids.

Dakhoul, Youssef M.↗

Linear and nonlinear dynamic analysis by boundary element method

An advanced implementation of the direct boundary element method (BEM) applicable to free-vibration, periodic (steady-state) vibration and linear and nonlinear transient dynamic problems involving two and three-dimensional isotropic solids of arbitrary shape is presented. Interior, exterior, and half-space problems can all be solved by the present formulation. For the free-vibration analysis, a new real variable BEM formulation is presented which solves the free-vibration problem in the form of algebraic equations (formed from the static kernels) and needs only surface discretization. In the area of time-domain transient analysis, the BEM is well suited because it gives an implicit formulation. Although the integral formulations are elegant, because of the complexity of the formulation it has never been implemented in exact form. In the present work, linear and nonlinear time domain transient analysis for three-dimensional solids has been implemented in a general and complete manner. The formulation and implementation of the nonlinear, transient, dynamic analysis presented here is the first ever in the field of boundary element analysis. Almost all the existing formulation of BEM in dynamics use the constant variation of the variables in space and time which is very unrealistic for engineering problems and, in some cases, it leads to unacceptably inaccurate results. In the present work, linear and quadratic isoparametric boundary elements are used for discretization of geometry and functional variations in space. In addition, higher order variations in time are used. These methods of analysis are applicable to piecewise-homogeneous materials, such that not only problems of the layered media and the soil-structure interaction can be analyzed but also a large problem can be solved by the usual sub-structuring technique. The analyses have been incorporated in a versatile, general-purpose computer program. Some numerical problems are solved and, through comparisons with available analytical and numerical results, the stability and high accuracy of these dynamic analysis techniques are established.

Ahmad, Shahid↗

Self-motion perception: assessment by real-time computer-generated animations

We report a new procedure for assessing complex self-motion perception. In three experiments, subjects manipulated a 6 degree-of-freedom magnetic-field tracker which controlled the motion of a virtual avatar so that its motion corresponded to the subjects' perceived self-motion. The real-time animation created by this procedure was stored using a virtual video recorder for subsequent analysis. Combined real and illusory self-motion and vestibulo-ocular reflex eye movements were evoked by cross-coupled angular accelerations produced by roll and pitch head movements during passive yaw rotation in a chair. Contrary to previous reports, illusory self-motion did not correspond to expectations based on semicircular canal stimulation. Illusory pitch head-motion directions were as predicted for only 37% of trials; whereas, slow-phase eye movements were in the predicted direction for 98% of the trials. The real-time computer-generated animations procedure permits use of naive, untrained subjects who lack a vocabulary for reporting motion perception and is applicable to basic self-motion perception studies, evaluation of motion simulators, assessment of balance disorders and so on.

Non-NASA Center↗

Characterization of Aircraft Structural Damage Using Guided Wave Based Finite Element Analysis for In-Flight Structural Health Management

The development of multidisciplinary Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) tools will enable accurate detection, diagnosis and prognosis of damage under normal and adverse conditions during flight. The adverse conditions include loss of control caused by environmental factors, actuator and sensor faults or failures, and structural damage conditions. A major concern is the growth of undetected damage/cracks due to fatigue and low velocity foreign object impact that can reach a critical size during flight, resulting in loss of control of the aircraft. To avoid unstable catastrophic propagation of damage during a flight, load levels must be maintained that are below the load-carrying capacity for damaged aircraft structures. Hence, a capability is needed for accurate real-time predictions of safe load carrying capacity for aircraft structures with complex damage configurations. In the present work, a procedure is developed that uses guided wave responses to interrogate damage. As the guided wave interacts with damage, the signal attenuates in some directions and reflects in others. This results in a difference in signal magnitude as well as phase shifts between signal responses for damaged and undamaged structures. Accurate estimation of damage size and location is made by evaluating the cumulative signal responses at various pre-selected sensor locations using a genetic algorithm (GA) based optimization procedure. The damage size and location is obtained by minimizing the difference between the reference responses and the responses obtained by wave propagation finite element analysis of different representative cracks, geometries and sizes.

Seshadri, Banavara R.↗

Performance Prediction of Big Data Transfer Through Experimental Analysis and Machine Learning

Big data transfer in next-generation scientific applications is now commonly carried out over connections with guaranteed bandwidth provisioned in High-performance Networks (HPNs) through advance bandwidth reservation. To use HPN resources efficiently, provisioning agents need to carefully schedule data transfer requests and allocate appropriate bandwidths. Such reserved bandwidths, if not fully utilized by the requesting user, could be simply wasted or cause extra overhead and complexity in management due to exclusive access. This calls for the capability of performance prediction to reserve bandwidth resources that match actual needs. Towards this goal, we employ machine learning algorithms to predict big data transfer performance based on extensive performance measurements, which are collected over a span of several years from a large number of data transfer tests using different protocols and toolkits between various end sites on several real-life physical or emulated HPN testbeds. We first identify a comprehensive list of attributes involved in a typical big data transfer process, including end host system configurations, network connection properties, and control parameters of data transfer methods. We then conduct an in-depth exploratory analysis of their impacts on application-level throughput, which provides insights into big data transfer performance and motivates the use of machine learning. We also investigate the applicability of machine learning algorithms and derive their general performance bounds for performance prediction of big data transfer in HPNs. Experimental results show that, with appropriate data preprocessing, the proposed machine learning-based approach achieves 95% or higher prediction accuracy in up to 90% of the cases with very noisy real-life performance measurements.

Yun, Daqing↗