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At least 307 records · Page 17

New WMO Certified Megaflash Lightning Extremes for Flash Distance (768 km) and Duration (17.01 seconds) Recorded from Space

Initial global extremes in lightning duration and horizontal distance were established in 2017 by an international panel of atmospheric lightning scientists and engineers assembled by the WMO. The subsequent launch of NOAA’s latest GOES-16/17 satellites with their Geostationary Lightning Mappers (GLMs) enabled extreme lightning to be monitored continuously over the western hemisphere up to 55⁰ latitude for the first time. Consequently, the former lightning extremes were more than doubled in 2019 to 709 km for distance and 16.730 s for duration. Continued detection and analysis of lightning “megaflashes” has now revealed two flashes that even exceed those 2019 records. As part of the ongoing work of the WMO in detection and documentation of global weather extremes, an international WMO evaluation committee was created to critically adjudicate these two GLM megaflash cases as new records for extreme lightning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Record-Breaking Atmospheric River Drives April 2024 Extreme Precipitation in the United Arab Emirates and the Surrounding Gulf Region

In mid-April 2024, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the surrounding Gulf region experienced unprecedented rainfall and catastrophic flooding, causing widespread damage, loss of life, and significant economic costs. During the 3-day period from 15 to 17 April, rainfall in the UAE exceeded 100 mm in the hardest-hit areas, with more than 170% of the typical annual precipitation recorded in just 72 h. The event was associated with exceptionally strong integrated water vapor transport (IVT), driven by a persistent low pressure system and a focused corridor of moisture transport. This environment, combined with favorable dynamical and convective conditions, triggered intense thunderstorms and widespread flooding. This article examines the role of an atmospheric river (AR) in the April 2024 extreme precipitation event, emphasizing the contribution of extreme IVT to preconditioning and amplifying the heavy rainfall. While this event has previously been described primarily in terms of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) and potential vorticity (PV) streamers, here we document and illustrate its close relationship to a record-breaking moisture transport corridor. This AR-based perspective highlights how large-scale moisture-transport frameworks can complement synoptic and mesoscale analyses in understanding extreme rainfall in arid and semiarid regions such as the UAE and the Gulf. The event serves as a stark example of the vulnerabilities faced by arid regions, where atmospheric conditions conducive to extreme flooding may become more frequent in the future.

Massoud, Elias [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000217725361)↗

Coastal Sea Level Observations Record the Twentieth-Century Enhancement of Decadal Climate Variability

Changes in the amplitude of decadal climate variability over the twentieth century have been noted, with most evidence derived from tropical Pacific sea surface temperature records. However, the length, spatial coverage, and stability of most instrumental records are insufficient to robustly identify such nonstationarity, or resolve its global spatial structure. Here, it is found that the long-term, stable, observing platform provided by tide gauges reveals a dramatic increase in the amplitude and spatial coherence of decadal (11–14-yr period) coastal sea level (ζ) variability between 1960 and 2000. During this epoch, western North American ζ was approximately out of phase with ζ in Sydney, Australia, and led northeastern U.S. ζ by approximately 1–2 years. The amplitude and timing of changes in decadal ζ variability in these regions are consistent with changes in atmospheric variability. Specifically, central equatorial Pacific wind stress and Labrador Sea heat flux are highly coherent and exhibit contemporaneous, order-of-magnitude increases in decadal power. These statistical relationships have a mechanistic underpinning: Along the western North American coastline, equatorial winds are known to drive rapidly propagating ζ signals along equatorial and coastal waveguides, while a 1–2-yr lag between Labrador Sea heat fluxes and northeastern United States ζ is consistent with a remotely forced, buoyancy-driven, mechanism. Tide gauges thus provide strong independent support for an increase in interbasin coherence on decadal time scales over the second half of the twentieth century, with implications for both the interpretation and prediction of climate and sea level variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How Frequent Will the Rarest Daily Rainfall Records of Hurricane Ida’s Remnants Be in the Future?

Abstract Gaining continued insights into the impact of global warming on the occurrence of hurricane-associated intense record downpours is essential for building climate resilient communities. This study investigates projected future changes in extreme rainfall over the Northeast United States, as represented by extreme daily amounts during Hurricane Ida in 2021. We used historical control simulations of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model generated from 40 years of weather events (1980–2014, 12 km) forced by the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis. These simulations are thermodynamically modified (2060–2100) via an imposed warming for the high-emission scenario of shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP585) from a range of general circulation models. Ground observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (1950–2014) and WRF simulations (historical, 1980–2014, and future, 2060–2100) are integrated into a nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) framework to assess the frequency of Ida’s heaviest daily rain rates under the SSP585 scenario. Results show that Ida’s daily maximum rainfall recorded at different observation locations was higher than the single highest September daily maximum observed (1950–2014) for 5 out of 17 stations (∼30% of the stations). Ida-like extreme daily rain rates are projected to be, on average, more than 2 times more likely to occur at the end of the century in the simulations (with some regions as high as 5 times). This work demonstrates that integrating a high-resolution atmospheric model’s present-day and thermodynamically modified future simulations along with ground observations, within a nonstationary statistical framework, is crucial for understanding changing characteristics of extreme weather events. Significance Statement Daily scale extreme precipitation is expected to become more frequent and severe, as evidenced by observations and model simulations. While it is important to investigate how these intensifying heavy rainfall events affect current engineering standards, fewer studies have contextualized how warming impacts the most extreme rainfall from a single storm event relative to historical heavy downpours. In this study, we focused on the daily extreme rainfall associated with the extratropical transition of Hurricane Ida (2021), particularly over the northeastern United States—some of which exceeded the commonly used hydrologic design criteria for a 100-yr storm. Using a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation, we investigated how continued warming may influence the frequency of such daily rain rates. Under a high-emission scenario, these events are projected to become up to 5 times more likely at the end of the twenty-first century.

Dollan, Ishrat J↗

Determining fast-S and slow-S propagation directions with SV-P data produced by buried explosives and recorded with vertical geophones

We have evaluated the concept of practicing S-wave reflection seismology with legacy 3D seismic data generated by a P-wave source and recorded with only vertical geophones. This type of S-wave imaging is based on the principle that seismic P-wave sources not only produce a downgoing illuminating P wavefield, but they also simultaneously produce a downgoing illuminating SV wavefield that, in almost all cases, is suitable for S-wave reflection imaging. The S-mode used in this study is the SV-P, or converted-P, mode. This mode involves a downgoing illuminating SV wavefield and an upgoing reflected P-mode that is recorded by vertical geophones. In flat-layered stratigraphy, the lengths of the SV and P raypaths in SV-P imaging are identical to the lengths of the SV and P raypaths in P-SV imaging with P-sources and 3C geophones. P-SV imaging of deep rocks has been practiced for more than two decades; SV-P imaging is a new concept. SV-P data should provide the same options for investigating deep rocks as do P-SV data. We have determined one of the equivalences between SV-P data extracted from vertical-geophone data and P-SV data extracted from horizontal geophones: that both modes react to azimuth-dependent variations in the S velocity in anisotropic rocks. Azimuthal variations in the SV-P traveltime can be used to define the polarization direction of the fast-S-wave mode, which is also the azimuth of the maximum horizontal stress (SHmax). Our investigation demonstrates a noninvasive method for monitoring changes in the SHmax azimuth across a CO 2 storage reservoir, or any targeted porous rock, as fluids are cycled into, and then out of, that rock’s pore space.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Testing and Design of Discriminants for Local Seismic Events Recorded during the Redmond Salt Mine Monitoring Experiment

The Redmond Salt Mine (RSM) Monitoring Experiment in Utah was designed to record seismoacoustic data at distances less than 50 km for algorithm testing and development. During the experiment from October 2017 to July 2019, six broadband seismic stations were operating at a time, with three of them having fixed locations for the duration, whereas the three other stations were moved to different locations every one-and-half to two-and-half months. RSM operations consist of nighttime underground blasting several times per week. The RSM is located in proximity to a belt of active seismicity, allowing direct comparison of natural and anthropogenic sources. Using the recorded data set, we built 1373 events with local magnitude (M L ) of -2.4 and lower to 3.3. For 75 blasts (RMEs) from the Redmond Salt Mine and 206 tectonic earthquakes (EQs), both M L and the coda duration magnitude (MC) are well constrained. We used these events to test and design discriminants that separate the RMEs from the EQs and are effective at local distances. The discriminants consist of M L -M C , low-frequency Sg to high-frequency Sg, Pg/Sg phase-amplitude ratios, and Rg/Sg spectral amplitude ratios, as well as different combinations of two or more of these classifiers. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of 0.92–1.0 for M L -M C , low-frequency Sg to high-frequency Sg, and Rg/Sg indicate that these discriminants are very effective. Conversely, the AUC of only 0.57 for Pg/Sg suggests that this discriminant is only slightly better than a random classifier. Among the effective classifiers, Rg/Sg, shows the lowest likelihood of misclassification (4.3%) for the populations. In conclusion, results of joint discriminant analyses suggest that even the arguably ineffective single classifier, like Pg/Sg in this case, can provide some value when used in combination with others.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Metaevaluation Final Report: Sandia National Laboratories Recorded Information Management Training Program Evaluation

For my internship project, I chose to evaluate the training program for the Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) Recorded Information Management (RIM) Program. The purpose of the evaluation was to identify: Where the current training meets federal and corporate requirements and if not, what gaps exist; If the training is accessible in a consistent location; If the training contains a consistent message about the responsibility of managing documents; If the training is organized by records management subject areas.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Section 106 Recordation, Interpretation, and Documentation for the Demolition of Buildings 9201-5 and 9204-4, Y-12 National Security Complex, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

In 2019 and 2020, Cultural Resource Analysts, Inc. (CRA), began preparing recordation packages for 18 World War II and Cold War Era buildings slated for demolition at the request of Consolidated Nuclear Security, LLC (CNS), on behalf of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). The recordations for these 18 buildings, which are located within what is now known as the Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12) in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, were prepared and submitted in two separate packages. The first report (EC-NP-004) was prepared as a mitigation measure to address adverse effects that will result from the proposed demolition of 16 support and ancillary buildings. The current report is the second of the two packages and addresses the last two of the 18 buildings slated for demolition (9201-5 and 9204-4), which are two of the large process buildings located at Y-12. All 18 of these buildings have previously been determined eligible for listing in the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP). The two buildings, Building 9201-5 and Building 9204-4, are located south of Bear Creek Road and west of the main Y-12 entrance gate. Both buildings were constructed as uranium enrichment facilities in support of the Manhattan Project, a top-secret World War II mission to develop the world’s first nuclear weapons. Building 9201-5, completed in October 1944, is the Alpha-5 process facility and Building 9204-4, completed in Fall 1945, is the Beta-4 process facility. Over the years, these facilities were repurposed for a number of different functions.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Granta:MI Record Review Procedure for Materials Testing Projects

This document is intended to serve as a guide for the review of records in LANL’s Weapons Materials Database. Specifically, this guide provides step-by-step instructions for the review of records associated with a materials testing project. This is the type of dataset that testing organizations such as MST-7 & MST-8 at LANL commonly produce for the weapons complex and want to archive in Granta:MI.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DeepCare: Improving Patient Care using Deep Learning on Electronic Health Records

Coordinating patient care using electronic health records (EHR) data presents an exciting but formidable opportunity in data extraction, analysis and modeling. Traditional methods use a manual feature driven approach to model patients with age, family history and symptoms to predict disease outcomes. We propose a novel approach to model patients based on their streaming electronic health records data combined with information from medical knowledge bases, which has been gained over years of medical research. Using a combination of representation learning and long short term memory (LSTM) networks we plan to model patient evolution over time, leading to more accurate and individualized predictive models for patient’s diseases. Our approach will be transformative in providing critical decision support for patient care, enabling accurate understanding and evolution of diseases in patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Digitizing Oil & Gas Well Regulatory Records from Illinois with the CATALOG OGRRE Tool

This effort demonstrates the functionality of the CATALOG Oil and Gas Regulatory Record digitizEr—OGRRE. OGRRE is being developed for automated mapping of fields on scanned oil and gas paper records to a uniform tabular format using advances in machine learning and optical character recognition.

Shay, Jacob [NETL Site Support Contractor, Nationa↗

Monthly Quality-filtered Aggregation of NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of AVHRR Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR), Version 5

This dataset contains gridded monthly Leaf Area Index (LAI) derived from the daily NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of AVHRR Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR), Version 5. This data record spans from 1981 to 2018 using data from eight NOAA polar orbiting satellites: NOAA-7, -9, -11, -14, -16, -17, -18 and -19. The data are projected on a 0.05 degree x 0.05 degree global grid, as in the original CDR. The original CDR is one of the Land Surface CDR Version 5 products produced by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and the University of Maryland (UMD), which is accompanied by algorithm documentation, data flow diagram and source code for the NOAA CDR Program. This dataset is in the netCDF-4 file format following ACDD and CF Conventions. This dataset has applied quality assurance information to only include "OK" data from the original CDR in the monthly aggregation.

Vermote, Eric [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (G↗

Monthly Quality-filtered Aggregation of NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of AVHRR (Version 5) and VIIRS (Version 1) Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR)

This dataset contains gridded monthly Leaf Area Index (LAI) derived from the daily NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of AVHRR (Version 5) and VIIRS (Version 1) Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR). This data record spans from 1981 to 2024 using data from NOAA polar orbiting satellites: NOAA-7, -9, -11, -14, -16, -17, -18, -19 and S-NPP. The data are projected on a 0.05 degree x 0.05 degree global grid, as in the original CDR. The original CDR is one of the Land Surface CDR products produced by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and the University of Maryland (UMD), which is accompanied by algorithm documentation, data flow diagram and source code for the NOAA CDR Program. This dataset is in the netCDF-4 file format following ACDD and CF Conventions. This dataset has applied quality assurance information to only include "OK" data from the original CDR in the monthly aggregation.

Vermote, Eric [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (G↗

LiG Metrology, Correlated Error, and the Integrity of the Global Surface Air-Temperature Record

The published 95% uncertainty of the global surface air-temperature anomaly (GSATA) record through 1980 is impossibly less than the 2σ = ±0.25 °C lower limit of laboratory resolution of 1 °C/division liquid-in-glass (LiG) thermometers. The ~0.7 °C/century Joule-drift of lead- and soft-glass thermometer bulbs renders unreliable the entire historical air-temperature record through the 19th century. A circa 1900 Baudin meteorological spirit thermometer bulb exhibited intense Pb X-ray emission lines (10.55, 12.66, and 14.76 keV). Uncorrected LiG thermometer non-linearity leaves 1σ = ±0.27 °C uncertainty in land-surface air temperatures prior to 1981. The 2σ = ±0.43 °C from LiG resolution and non-linearity obscures most of the 20th century GSATA trend. Systematic sensor-measurement errors are highly pair-wise correlated, possibly across hundreds of km. Non-normal distributions of bucket and engine-intake difference SSTs disconfirm the assumption of random measurement error. Semivariogram analysis of ship SST measurements yields half the error difference mean, ±½Δε 1,2, not the error mean. Transfer-function adjustment following a change of land station air-temperature sensor eliminates measurement independence and forward-propagates the antecedent uncertainty. LiG resolution limits, non-linearity, and sensor field calibrations yield GSATA mean ±2σ RMS uncertainties of, 1900–1945, ±1.7 °C; 1946–1980, ±2.1 °C; 1981–2004, ±2.0 °C; and 2005–2010, ±1.6 °C. Finally, the 20th century (1900–1999) GSATA, 0.74 ± 1.94 °C, does not convey any information about rate or magnitude of temperature change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Explosion Detection Using Smartphones: Ensemble Learning with the Smartphone High-Explosive Audio Recordings Dataset and the ESC-50 Dataset

Explosion monitoring is performed by infrasound and seismoacoustic sensor networks that are distributed globally, regionally, and locally. However, these networks are unevenly and sparsely distributed, especially at the local scale, as maintaining and deploying networks is costly. With increasing interest in smaller-yield explosions, the need for more dense networks has increased. To address this issue, we propose using smartphone sensors for explosion detection as they are cost-effective and easy to deploy. Although there are studies using smartphone sensors for explosion detection, the field is still in its infancy and new technologies need to be developed. We applied a machine learning model for explosion detection using smartphone microphones. The data used were from the Smartphone High-explosive Audio Recordings Dataset (SHAReD), a collection of 326 waveforms from 70 high-explosive (HE) events recorded on smartphones, and the ESC-50 dataset, a benchmarking dataset commonly used for environmental sound classification. Two machine learning models were trained and combined into an ensemble model for explosion detection. The resulting ensemble model classified audio signals as either “explosion”, “ambient”, or “other” with true positive rates (recall) greater than 96% for all three categories.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

A Catalog of the Highest-energy Cosmic Rays Recorded during Phase I of Operation of the Pierre Auger Observatory

A catalog containing details of the highest-energy cosmic rays recorded through the detection of extensive air showers at the Pierre Auger Observatory is presented with the aim of opening the data to detailed examination. Descriptions of the 100 showers created by the highest-energy particles recorded between 2004 January 1 and 2020 December 31 are given for cosmic rays that have energies in the range 78–166 EeV. Details are also given on a further nine very energetic events that have been used in the calibration procedure adopted to determine the energy of each primary. A sky plot of the arrival directions of the most energetic particles is shown. No interpretations of the data are offered.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

AE33 Aethalometer Records at RMBL [AMF2] from April 2022 to October 2023

The dataset presents atmospheric mass loadings of black carbon (BC) and brown carbon (BrC), during the Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) campaign that took place from 2021 – 2023 in Gothic, CO. A Magee Scientific aethalometer (model AE33) was deployed at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, 200 m north of AMF2 to monitor mass loadings of optically absorbing aerosols. The instrument inlet was equipped with a BGI SCC 1.829 ambient cyclone with a particle cutoff of 2.5 μm and placed 5 m above ground level. The dataset reports hour-resolved BC mass loadings at 370, 470, 520, 590, 660, 880, and 950 (BC370, BC470, BC 520, BC590, BC660, BC880, BC950 in ng/m3) reported by the instrument built-in algorithm, which calculates mass loadings from the rate of change of the attenuation of light transmitted through the aerosol-laden filter. BC880 is the operationally defined reference of the BC concentration. Hour-resolved absorbance at each wavelength were calculated from their respective mass absorption cross-section in inverse megameters (Mm-1). The absorption Angstrom exponent (AAE) for BrC and BC were calculated for each hour. BrC AAE (AAE_BrC) was calculated from the slope of Log(wavelength) versus Log(absorbance) based on the measurements at 370, 470, and 520 nm. BC AAE (AAE_BrC) was calculated from the slope of Log(wavelength) versus Log(absorbance) based on the measurements at 590, 660, 880, and 950 nm. The aethalometer record spans time periods of 4/5/2022 – 10/3/2022 and 12/8/2022 – 10/9/2023. The ambient CO2 concentration recorded by a Vaisala CARBOCAP carbon dioxide probe GMP343 is also reported in ppm.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗