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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2006

The Application of Principal Component Analysis Using Fixed Eigenvectors to the Infrared Thermographic Inspection of the Space Shuttle Thermal Protection System

The Nondestructive Evaluation Sciences Branch at NASA s Langley Research Center has been actively involved in the development of thermographic inspection techniques for more than 15 years. Since the Space Shuttle Columbia accident, NASA has focused on the improvement of advanced NDE techniques for the Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) panels that comprise the orbiter s wing leading edge. Various nondestructive inspection techniques have been used in the examination of the RCC, but thermography has emerged as an effective inspection alternative to more traditional methods. Thermography is a non-contact inspection method as compared to ultrasonic techniques which typically require the use of a coupling medium between the transducer and material. Like radiographic techniques, thermography can be used to inspect large areas, but has the advantage of minimal safety concerns and the ability for single-sided measurements. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) has been shown effective for reducing thermographic NDE data. A typical implementation of PCA is when the eigenvectors are generated from the data set being analyzed. Although it is a powerful tool for enhancing the visibility of defects in thermal data, PCA can be computationally intense and time consuming when applied to the large data sets typical in thermography. Additionally, PCA can experience problems when very large defects are present (defects that dominate the field-of-view), since the calculation of the eigenvectors is now governed by the presence of the defect, not the good material. To increase the processing speed and to minimize the negative effects of large defects, an alternative method of PCA is being pursued when a fixed set of eigenvectors is used to process the thermal data from the RCC materials. These eigen vectors can be generated either from an analytic model of the thermal response of the material under examination, or from a large cross section of experimental data. This paper will provide the details of the analytic model; an overview of the PCA process; as well as a quantitative signal-to-noise comparison of the results of performing both embodiments of PCA on thermographic data from various RCC specimens. Details of a system that has been developed to allow insitu inspection of a majority of shuttle RCC components will be presented along with the acceptance test results for this system. Additionally, the results of applying this technology to the Space Shuttle Discovery after its return from flight will be presented.

Cramer, K. Elliott↗
NASA NTRS2002

A New Method for Estimating the Single Scattering Phase Functions of Regolith Grains

Hapke's photometric model has been widely used in solar system remote sensing applications for nearly two decades. Recently, Hapke extended his model to describe the coherent-backscatter opposition effect and multiple-scattering by particles with anisotropic single particle phase functions (SPPF's). A practical difficulty for retrieving Hapke's model parameters from typical planet, satellite, and asteroid photometry data sets is that the model employs a large number of adjustable parameters (at least eight) that can be reliably constrained only for a small number of planetary data sets in which both disk-resolved and whole-disk observations are available from opposition to very large phase angles. The present work aims to reduce the number of adjustable parameters and preserve (or even enhance) the model's accuracy and usefulness by expressing Hapke's parameters in terms of more fundamental physical properties on which they mutually depend. The most difficult part of this task, described here, is to develop a simple method for computing the effective SPPF for structurally complex regolith grains from optical constants, grain-size distribution, and average regolith porosity. The development of light-scattering models for irregularly shaped particles is a large, complex subject and many sophisticated methods, such as Discrete Dipole Approximation (DDA) and Monte-Carlo simulations, have been explored elsewhere. Many of these methods are computationally intensive and probably impractical for routine substitution in Hapke's model. Here, progress is reported in developing a practical, semi-empirical method for estimating the directional scattering behavior (i.e. SPPF) of irregular regolith grains. The method employs Optical Transfer Function (OTF) techniques to model how the structural complexity of regolith particles broaden and attenuate the angular distribution of scattered light relative to that expected from ideal spherical particles of equivalent size and composition.

Helfenstein, P.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Sensitivity analysis for aeroacoustic and aeroelastic design of turbomachinery blades

A new method for computing the effect that small changes in the airfoil shape and cascade geometry have on the aeroacoustic and aeroelastic behavior of turbomachinery cascades is presented. The nonlinear unsteady flow is assumed to be composed of a nonlinear steady flow plus a small perturbation unsteady flow that is harmonic in time. First, the full potential equation is used to describe the behavior of the nonlinear mean (steady) flow through a two-dimensional cascade. The small disturbance unsteady flow through the cascade is described by the linearized Euler equations. Using rapid distortion theory, the unsteady velocity is split into a rotational part that contains the vorticity and an irrotational part described by a scalar potential. The unsteady vorticity transport is described analytically in terms of the drift and stream functions computed from the steady flow. Hence, the solution of the linearized Euler equations may be reduced to a single inhomogeneous equation for the unsteady potential. The steady flow and small disturbance unsteady flow equations are discretized using bilinear quadrilateral isoparametric finite elements. The nonlinear mean flow solution and streamline computational grid are computed simultaneously using Newton iteration. At each step of the Newton iteration, LU decomposition is used to solve the resulting set of linear equations. The unsteady flow problem is linear, and is also solved using LU decomposition. Next, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the effect small changes in cascade and airfoil geometry have on the mean and unsteady flow fields. The sensitivity analysis makes use of the nominal steady and unsteady flow LU decompositions so that no additional matrices need to be factored. Hence, the present method is computationally very efficient. To demonstrate how the sensitivity analysis may be used to redesign cascades, a compressor is redesigned for improved aeroelastic stability and two different fan exit guide vanes are redesigned for reduced downstream radiated noise. In addition, a framework detailing how the two-dimensional version of the method may be used to redesign three-dimensional geometries is presented.

Lorence, Christopher B.↗
DOE OSTI2024

ML-based Dimension Reduction Strategies

Deep learning (DL)--based surrogate models have achieved success in various applications in carbon capture and storage (CCS). However, the model training on high-dimensional spaces is computationally expensive and impractical for large-scale and complex geological models, because the models usually contain hundreds of thousands to millions of grid cells, each with a set of parameters. Furthermore, the high cost of generating training data with sufficient variation is another limitation of model training on high-dimensional spaces, which may result in overfitting and reduce the model efficiency and prediction performance. We proposed the workflow incorporating dimension reduction methods and deep learning models, which aim to extract the latent variables of input parameters and output state variables, and then build the mapping function at the latent spaces. The proposed workflow can significantly reduce the computational complexity in solving both forward and inverse problems compared to models trained on high-dimensional spaces. Dimensionality reduction models showed great potential in workflows for fast reservoir simulation, history matching, prior model generation, visualization, and more, ultimately enhancing DL model performance in related SMART Work Packages.

Hosseini, Seyyed↗
NASA NTRS1990

Selection of component modes

Structural dynamic models of complex spacecraft are often assembled from a number of component models. In this paper, three methods for reducing the order of these component models are presented by selecting 'important' fixed interface component modes. These methods are applied to two component structures of the Space Station Freedom: a photovoltaic (PV) array and a solar dynamic collector. The reduced order models of these components retain a small fraction of the number of modes in the original models while accurately representing a set of outputs chosen by the user.

Blelloch, Paul A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Comparison of Methods for Assessing Space Suit Joint Ranges of Motion

Through the Advanced Exploration Systems Program, NASA is attempting to use the vast collection of space suit mobility data from 50 years worth of space suit testing to build predictive analysis tools to aid in early architecture decisions for future missions and exploration programs. However, the design engineers must first understand if and how data generated by different methodologies can be compared directly and used in an essentially interchangeable manner. To address this question, the isolated joint range of motion data from two different test series were compared. Both data sets were generated from participants wearing the Mark III Space Suit Technology Demonstrator (MK-III), Waist Entry I-suit (WEI), and minimal clothing. Additionally the two tests shared a common test subject that allowed for within subject comparisons of the methods that greatly reduced the number of variables in play. The tests varied in their methodologies: the Space Suit Comparative Technologies Evaluation used 2D photogrammetry to analyze isolated ranges of motion while the Constellation space suit benchmarking and requirements development used 3D motion capture to evaluate both isolated and functional joint ranges of motion. The isolated data from both test series were compared graphically, as percent differences, and by simple statistical analysis. The results indicated that while the methods generate results that are statistically the same (significance level p= 0.01), the differences are significant enough in the practical sense to make direct comparisons ill advised. The concluding recommendations propose direction for how to bridge the data gaps and address future mobility data collection to allow for backward compatibility.

Aitchison, Lindsay↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Comparison of Methods for Assessing Space Suit Joint Ranges of Motion

Through the Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Program, NASA is attempting to use the vast collection of space suit mobility data from 50 years worth of space suit testing to build predictive analysis tools to aid in early architecture decisions for future missions and exploration programs. However, the design engineers must first understand if and how data generated by different methodologies can be compared directly and used in an essentially interchangeable manner. To address this question, the isolated joint range of motion data from two different test series were compared. Both data sets were generated from participants wearing the Mark III Space Suit Technology Demonstrator (MK-III), Waist Entry I-suit (WEI), and minimal clothing. Additionally the two tests shared a common test subject that allowed for within subject comparisons of the methods that greatly reduced the number of variables in play. The tests varied in their methodologies: the Space Suit Comparative Technologies Evaluation used 2-D photogrammetry to analyze isolated ranges of motion while the Constellation space suit benchmarking and requirements development used 3-D motion capture to evaluate both isolated and functional joint ranges of motion. The isolated data from both test series were compared graphically, as percent differences, and by simple statistical analysis. The results indicated that while the methods generate results that are statistically the same (significance level p= 0.01), the differences are significant enough in the practical sense to make direct comparisons ill advised. The concluding recommendations propose direction for how to bridge the data gaps and address future mobility data collection to allow for backward compatibility.

Aitchison, Lindsay T.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Board Level Proton Testing Book of Knowledge for NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging Program

This book of knowledge (BoK) provides a critical review of the benefits and difficulties associated with using proton irradiation as a means of exploring the radiation hardness of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) systems. This work was developed for the NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging (NEPP) Board Level Testing for the COTS task. The fundamental findings of this BoK are the following. The board-level test method can reduce the worst case estimate for a board's single-event effect (SEE) sensitivity compared to the case of no test data, but only by a factor of ten. The estimated worst case rate of failure for untested boards is about 0.1 SEE/board-day. By employing the use of protons with energies near or above 200 MeV, this rate can be safely reduced to 0.01 SEE/board-day, with only those SEEs with deep charge collection mechanisms rising this high. For general SEEs, such as static random-access memory (SRAM) upsets, single-event transients (SETs), single-event gate ruptures (SEGRs), and similar cases where the relevant charge collection depth is less than 10 μm, the worst case rate for SEE is below 0.001 SEE/board-day. Note that these bounds assume that no SEEs are observed during testing. When SEEs are observed during testing, the board-level test method can establish a reliable event rate in some orbits, though all established rates will be at or above 0.001 SEE/board-day. The board-level test approach we explore has picked up support as a radiation hardness assurance technique over the last twenty years. The approach originally was used to provide a very limited verification of the suitability of low cost assemblies to be used in the very benign environment of the International Space Station (ISS), in limited reliability applications. Recently the method has been gaining popularity as a way to establish a minimum level of SEE performance of systems that require somewhat higher reliability performance than previous applications. This sort of application of the method suggests a critical analysis of the method is in order. This is also of current consideration because the primary facility used for this type of work, the Indiana University Cyclotron Facility (IUCF) (also known as the Integrated Science and Technology (ISAT) hall), has closed permanently, and the future selection of alternate test facilities is critically important. This document reviews the main theoretical work on proton testing of assemblies over the last twenty years. It augments this with review of reported data generated from the method and other data that applies to the limitations of the proton board-level test approach. When protons are incident on a system for test they can produce spallation reactions. From these reactions, secondary particles with linear energy transfers (LETs) significantly higher than the incident protons can be produced. These secondary particles, together with the protons, can simulate a subset of the space environment for particles capable of inducing single event effects (SEEs). The proton board-level test approach has been used to bound SEE rates, establishing a maximum possible SEE rate that a test article may exhibit in space. This bound is not particularly useful in many cases because the bound is quite loose. We discuss the established limit that the proton board-level test approach leaves us with. The remaining possible SEE rates may be as high as one per ten years for most devices. The situation is actually more problematic for many SEE types with deep charge collection. In cases with these SEEs, the limits set by the proton board-level test can be on the order of one per 100 days. Because of the limited nature of the bounds established by proton testing alone, it is possible that tested devices will have actual SEE sensitivity that is very low (e.g., fewer than one event in 1 × 10(exp 4) years), but the test method will only be able to establish the limits indicated above. This BoK further examines other benefits of proton board-level testing besides hardness assurance. The primary alternate use is the injection of errors. Error injection, or fault injection, is something that is often done in a simulation environment. But the proton beam has the benefit of injecting the majority of actual SEEs without risk of something being missed, and without the risk of simulation artifacts misleading the SEE investigation.

Guertin, Steven M.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Constraints in Genetic Programming

Genetic programming refers to a class of genetic algorithms utilizing generic representation in the form of program trees. For a particular application, one needs to provide the set of functions, whose compositions determine the space of program structures being evolved, and the set of terminals, which determine the space of specific instances of those programs. The algorithm searches the space for the best program for a given problem, applying evolutionary mechanisms borrowed from nature. Genetic algorithms have shown great capabilities in approximately solving optimization problems which could not be approximated or solved with other methods. Genetic programming extends their capabilities to deal with a broader variety of problems. However, it also extends the size of the search space, which often becomes too large to be effectively searched even by evolutionary methods. Therefore, our objective is to utilize problem constraints, if such can be identified, to restrict this space. In this publication, we propose a generic constraint specification language, powerful enough for a broad class of problem constraints. This language has two elements -- one reduces only the number of program instances, the other reduces both the space of program structures as well as their instances. With this language, we define the minimal set of complete constraints, and a set of operators guaranteeing offspring validity from valid parents. We also show that these operators are not less efficient than the standard genetic programming operators if one preprocesses the constraints - the necessary mechanisms are identified.

Janikow, Cezary Z.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Diagrammatic technique for calculating matrix elements of collective operators in superradiance

Adopting the so-called genealogical construction, one can express the eigenstates of collective operators corresponding to a specified mode for an N-atom system in terms of those for an (N-1) atom system. Using these Dicke states as bases and using the Wigner-Eckart theorem, a matrix element of a collective operator of an arbitrary mode can be written as the product of an m-dependent factor and an m-independent reduced matrix element (RME). A set of recursion formulas for the RME is obtained. A graphical representation of the RME on the branching diagram for binary irreducible representations of permutation groups is then introduced. This gives a simple and systematic way of calculating the RME. This method is especially useful when the cooperation number r is close to N/2, where almost exact asymptotic expressions can be obtained easily. The result shows explicity the geometry dependence of superradiance and the relative importance of r-conserving and r-nonconserving processes.

Lee, C. T.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Marangoni Effects on Near-Bubble Microscale Transport During Boiling of Binary Fluid Mixtures

In earlier investigations, Marangoni effects were observed to be the dominant mechanism of boiling transport in 2-propanol/water mixtures under reduced gravity conditions. In this investigation we have examined the mechanisms of binary mixture boiling by exploring the transport near a single bubble generated in a binary mixture between a heated surface and cold surface. The temperature field created in the liquid around the bubble produces vaporization over the portion of its interface near the heated surface and condensation over portions of its interface near the cold surface. Experiments were conducted using different mixtures of water and 2-propanol under 1g conditions and under reduced gravity conditions aboard the KC135 aircraft. Since 2-propanol is more volatile than water, there is a lower concentration of 2-propanol near the hot surface and a higher concentration of 2-propanol near the cold plate relative to the bulk quantity. This difference in interface concentration gives rise to strong Marangoni effects that move liquid toward the hot plate in the near bubble region for 2-propanol and water mixtures. In the experiments in this study, the pressure of the test system was maintained at about 5 kPa to achieve the full spectrum of boiling behavior (nucleate boiling, critical heat flux and film boiling) at low temperature and heat flux levels. Heat transfer data and visual documentation of the bubble shape were extracted from the experimental results. In the 1-g experiments at moderate to high heat flux levels, the bubble was observed to grow into a mushroom shape with a larger top portion near the cold plate due to the buoyancy effect. The shape of the bubble was somewhat affected by the cold plate subcooling and the superheat of the heated surface. At low superheat levels for the heated surface, several active nucleation sites were observed, and the vapor stems from them merged to form a larger bubble. The generation rate of vapor is moderate in this regime and the bubble shape is cylindrical in appearance. In some instances, the bubble interface appeared to oscillate. At higher applied heat flux levels, the top of the bubble became larger, apparently to provide more condensing interface area adjacent to the cold plate. Increasing the applied heat flux ultimately led to dry-out of the heated surface, with conditions just prior to dryout corresponding to the maximum heat flux (CHF). A more stable bubble was observed when the system attained the minimum heat flux (for film boiling). In this regime, most of the surface under the bottom of the bubble was dry with nucleate boiling sometimes occuring around the contact perimeter of the bubble at heated surface. Different variations (e.g. gap between two plates, molar concentration of the liquid mixture) of the experiments were examined to determine parametric effects on the boiling process and to determine the best conditions for the KC135 reduced gravity tests. Variation of the gap was found to have a minor impact on the CHF. However, reducing the gap between the hot and cold surface was observed to significantly reduce the minimum heat flux for fixed molar concentration of 2-propanol. In the reduced gravity experiments aboard the KC135 aircraft, the bubble formed in the 6.4 mm gap was generally cylindrical or barrel shaped and it increased its extent laterally as the surface superheat increased. In reduced gravity experiments, dryout of the heated surface under the bubble was observed to occur at a lower superheated temperature than for 1g conditions. Observed features of the boiling process and heat transfer data under reduced gravity will be discussed in detail. The results of the reduced gravity experiments will also be compared to those obtained in comparable 1g experiments. In tandem with the experiments we are also developing a computational model of the transport in the liquid surrounding the bubble during the boiling process. The computational model uses a level set method to model motion of the interface. It will incorporate a macroscale treatment of the transport in the liquid gap between the surfaces and a microscale treatment of transport in the regions between the bubble interface and the solid surfaces. The features of the model will be described in detail. Future research directions suggested by the results to date will also be discussed.

V. Carey↗
NASA NTRS2003

NASA Tech Briefs, December 2003

Topics covered include: Organic/Inorganic Hybrid Polymer/Clay Nanocomposites; Less-Toxic Coatings for Inhibiting Corrosion of Aluminum; Liquid Coatings for Reducing Corrosion of Steel in Concrete; Processable Polyimides Containing APB and Reactive End Caps; Rod/Coil Block Copolyimides for Ion-Conducting Membranes; Techniques for Characterizing Microwave Printed Antennas; Cylindrical Antenna With Partly Adaptive Phased-Array Feed; Command Interface ASIC - Analog Interface ASIC Chip Set; Predicting Accumulations of Ice on Aerodynamic Surfaces; Analyzing Aeroelasticity in Turbomachines; Software for Allocating Resources in the Deep Space Network; Expert Seeker; High-Speed Recording of Test Data on Hard Disks; Functionally Graded Nanophase Beryllium/Carbon Composites; Thin Thermal-Insulation Blankets for Very High Temperatures; Aerostructures Test Wing; Flight-Test Evaluation of Flutter-Prediction Methods; Piezoelectrically Actuated Microvalve for Liquid Effluents; Larger-Stroke Piezoelectrically Actuated Microvalve; Innovative, High-Pressure, Cryogenic Control Valve: Short Face-to-Face, Reduced Cost; Safer Roadside Crash Walls Would Limit Deceleration; Improved Interactive Medical-Imaging System; Scanning Microscopes Using X Rays and Microchannels; Slotting Fins of Heat Exchangers to Provide Thermal Breaks; Methane Clathrate Hydrate Prospecting; Automated Monitoring with a BSP Fault-Detection Test; Automated Monitoring with a BCP Fault-Decision Test; Vector-Ordering Filter Procedure for Data Reduction; Remote Sensing and Information Technology for Large Farms; Developments at the Advanced Design Technologies Testbed; Spore-Forming Bacteria that Resist Sterilization; and Acoustical Applications of the HHT Method.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2025

Harnessing Machine Learning to Predict MoS 2 Solid Lubricant Performance

Physical vapor deposited (PVD) molybdenum disulfide (MoS 2 ) solid lubricant coatings are an exemplar material system for machine learning methods due to small changes in process variables often causing large variations in microstructure and mechanical/tribological properties. Here, in this work, a gradient boosted regression tree machine learning method is applied to an existing experimental data set containing process, microstructure, and property information to create deeper insights into the process-structure–property relationships for molybdenum disulfide (MoS 2 ) solid lubricant coatings. The optimized and cross-validated models show good predictive capabilities for density, reduced modulus, hardness, wear rate, and initial coefficients of friction. The contribution of individual deposition variables (i.e., argon pressure, deposition power, target conditioning) on coating properties is highlighted through feature importance. The process-property relationships established herein show linear and non-linear relationships and highlight the influence of uncontrolled deposition variables (i.e., target conditioning) on the tribological performance.

MoS2↗
NASA NTRS1974

Approximate techniques of structural reanalysis

A study is made of two approximate techniques for structural reanalysis. These include Taylor series expansions for response variables in terms of design variables and the reduced-basis method. In addition, modifications to these techniques are proposed to overcome some of their major drawbacks. The modifications include a rational approach to the selection of the reduced-basis vectors and the use of Taylor series approximation in an iterative process. For the reduced basis a normalized set of vectors is chosen which consists of the original analyzed design and the first-order sensitivity analysis vectors. The use of the Taylor series approximation as a first (initial) estimate in an iterative process, can lead to significant improvements in accuracy, even with one iteration cycle. Therefore, the range of applicability of the reanalysis technique can be extended. Numerical examples are presented which demonstrate the gain in accuracy obtained by using the proposed modification techniques, for a wide range of variations in the design variables.

Noor, A. K.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Taguchi methods in electronics: A case study

Total Quality Management (TQM) is becoming more important as a way to improve productivity. One of the technical aspects of TQM is a system called the Taguchi method. This is an optimization method that, with a few precautions, can reduce test effort by an order of magnitude over conventional techniques. The Taguchi method is specifically designed to minimize a product's sensitivity to uncontrollable system disturbances such as aging, temperature, voltage variations, etc., by simultaneously varying both design and disturbance parameters. The analysis produces an optimum set of design parameters. A 3-day class on the Taguchi method was held at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in May 1991. A project was needed as a follow-up after the class was over, and the motor controller was selected at that time. Exactly how to proceed was the subject of discussion for some months. It was not clear exactly what to measure, and design kept getting mixed with optimization. There was even some discussion about why the Taguchi method should be used at all.

Kissel, R.↗
NASA NTRS1953

A method for calculating the lift and center of pressure of wing-body-tail combinations at subsonic, transonic, and supersonic speeds

A method is presented for calculating the lift and pitching-moment characteristics of circular cylindrical bodies in combination with triangular, rectangular, or trapezoidal wings or tails through the subsonic, transonic, and supersonic speed ranges. The method covers unbanked wings, sweptback leading edges or sweptforward trailing edges, low angles of attack, and the effects of wing and tail incidence. The wing-body interference is handled by the method presented in NACA RM's A51J04 and A52B06, and the wing-tail interference is treated by assuming one completely rolled-up vortex per wing panel and evaluating the tail load by strip theory. A computing table and set of design charts are presented which reduce the calculations to routine operations. Comparison is made between the estimated and experimental characteristics for a large number of wing-body and wing-body-tail combinations. Generally speaking, the lifts were estimated to within plus-or-minus 10 percent and the centers of pressure were estimated to within plus-or-minus 0.02 of the body length. The effect of wing deflection on wing-tail interference at supersonic speeds was not correctly predicted for triangular wings with supersonic leading edges.

Nielsen, Jack N↗
NASA NTRS1995

Validation of Long Bone Mechanical Properties from Densitometry

The objective of this study was to assess whether cross-sectional areal properties, calculated from densitometry, correlate to the true flexural properties. Right and left male embalmed tibiae were used in the study. Prior to scanning, the proximal end of each tibia was potted in a fixture with registration pins, flushed thoroughly with water under pressure to remove trapped air, and then placed in a constant thickness water bath attached to a precision indexer. Two sets of three scans of the entire tibia were taken with an Hologic QDR 1000/W densitometer at rotations of 0, 45, and 90 degrees about the tibia long axis. An aluminum step phantom and a bone step phantom, machined from bovine cortical bone, were also in the bath and scanned separately. Pixel attenuation data from the two sets of scans were averaged to reduce noise. Pixel data from the high energy beam were then converted to equivalent thicknesses using calibration equations. Cross-sectional areal properties (centroid, principal area moments and principal angle) along the length were computed from the three registered scans using methods developed in our laboratory. Flexural rigidities. Four strain gages were bonded around the circumference of each of 5 cross-sections encompassing the entire diaphysis. A known transverse load was then applied to the distal end and the bone was rotated 360 degrees in eight increments of 45 degrees each. Strains from the eight orientations were analyzed along with the known applied bending moments at each section to compute section centroids, curvatures, principal flexural rigidities and principal angle. Reference axes between the two methods were maintained within +/- 0.5 degrees using an electronic inclinometer. Principal angles (flexural - areal) differed by -2.0 +/- 4.0 degrees, and 1.0 +/- 2.5 degrees for the right and left tibia, respectively. Section principal flexural rigidities were highly correlated to principal areal moments (right: r(sup 2)= 0.997; left: r(sup 2)= 0.978) indicating a nearly constant effective flexural modulus. Right and left tibia exhibited a very high degree of symmetry when comparing either flexural or areal properties. To our knowledge this is the first study to validate the use of densitometry (DXA) to predict three dimensional structural properties of long bones. Our initial results support the conclusion that bone mineral and its distribution are the primary determinants of flexural modulus and rigidity.

Whalen, R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Investigating seasonal ENSO forecast amplitude calibration for GEOS-S2S-2

The GEOS-S2S-2 is a global coupled model and assimilation system, encompassing many aspects of the Earth climate system. This project looked at seasonal (nine-month) ensemble forecasts, over the period from 1982 through the present. We explored and validated a forecast amplitude correction technique used by the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), of which GEOS is a member, for Niño3.4 sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly predictions. The method relies on deriving a set of correction factors based on the standard deviations of hindcast and observed SST anomalies. This algorithm was implemented at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) and applied to the GEOS-S2S-2 Niño 3.4 hindcasts. In general, the correction reduced the forecast amplitude. This improved the quality of the forecasts when measured by the root mean square error (RMSE) of the ensemble mean forecast. RMSE decreased for most initialization months and forecast leads. The correction had a larger impact on seasons with strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events than neutral seasons. The effects of the correction on the ensemble characteristics were also examined, and a variation of the algorithm was proposed that preserves the ensemble spread. The outcome of this project is a tool that can be used to calibrate GEOS-S2S-2 ENSO forecasts and potentially improve the precision of multi-model El Niño outlooks.

ENSO↗