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DOE OSTI2025

Trust Your Gut: Comparing Human and Machine Inference from Noisy Visualizations

People commonly utilize visualizations not only to examine a given dataset, but also to draw generalizable conclusions about the underlying models or phenomena. Prior research has compared human visual inference to that of an optimal Bayesian agent, with deviations from rational analysis viewed as problematic. However, human reliance on non-normative heuristics may prove advantageous in certain circumstances. We investigate scenarios where human intuition might surpass idealized statistical rationality. In two experiments, we examine individuals’ accuracy in characterizing the parameters of known data-generating models from bivariate visualizations. Our findings indicate that, although participants generally exhibited lower accuracy compared to statistical models, they frequently outperformed Bayesian agents, particularly when faced with extreme samples. Participants appeared to rely on their internal models to filter out noisy visualizations, thus improving their resilience against spurious data. However, participants displayed overconfidence and struggled with uncertainty estimation. They also exhibited higher variance than statistical machines. Our findings suggest that analyst gut reactions to visualizations may provide an advantage, even when departing from rationality. These results carry implications for designing visual analytics tools, offering new perspectives on how to integrate statistical models and analyst intuition for improved inference and decision-making. The data and materials for this paper are available at https://osf.io/qmfv6

human-machine collaboration↗

DOE OSTI2022

Soil viruses: Understudied agents of soil ecology

Over the past couple decades there has been intense exploration of the soil microbiome using modern sequencing and bioinformatics approaches. These studies have revealed a vast diversity of microorganisms across a variety of habitats (Thompson et al., 2017) and how differences in the environment, for example with climate change, influence the soil microbial community composition (Jansson and Hofmockel, 2020). The focus of these studies has primarily been on microbial cellular organisms, including bacteria, archaea and fungi. By contrast, in depth study of soil viruses has been largely neglected, until recently. There are several reasons that soil viruses are less studied, including difficulties with extraction of viruses from soil particles, difficulties with classification of soil viruses based on microscopic imaging, and reliance on the small proportion of microbial hosts that can be cultivated. Now that comprehensive soil metagenomes are available the current trend has been to survey the metagenomes for viral sequences. This approach has revealed that soil viruses are incredibly abundant, highly diverse, and largely uncharacterized (Paez-Espino et al., 2016). This so-called ‘viral dark matter’ presents an incredible research opportunity for the future. Here I will highlight some of these potential research avenues based on what is known to date.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Herbicide‐resistant weed management with robots: A weed ecological–economic model

The heavy reliance on herbicides for weed control has led to an increase in resistant weeds in the United States. Robotic weed control is emerging as an alternative technology for removing weeds mechanically using artificial intelligence. We develop an integrated weed ecological and economic dynamic (I‐WEED) model to examine the biophysical and economic drivers of adopting robotic weed management and simulate the optimal timing and intensity of robotic adoption within and across growing seasons. We specify a cohort‐based weed growth model that relates yield damages to effective weed density and treats the susceptibility of weeds to herbicides as a renewable resource that can be regenerated by using mechanical weeding robots, due to a fitness cost that makes resistant weeds less prolific. Compared to myopic weed management which ignores resistance development, forward‐looking management leads to earlier adoption of robots and treating robots as complements instead of substitutes to herbicides. This weed management results in adopting fewer robots, deploying robots on a smaller portion of the land, higher profitability, and lower yield loss in the long run, relative to myopic management. Counterintuitively, myopic management leads to a lower resistance level through its higher robot adoption intensity. We also find that a lower level of initial weed seed resistance and/or a higher fitness cost result in a higher level of resistance because they create incentives for farmers to delay the adoption of robotic weed control. Our analysis shows the importance of jointly considering the interactions between weed ecology and economics in analyzing the incentives and effects of robotic weed management on weed resistance.

agricultural robotics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Structural analysis of the NifL-NifA complex reveals the molecular basis of anti-activation of nitrogen fixation gene expression in Azotobacter vinelandii

Understanding the molecular basis of regulated nitrogen (N 2 ) fixation is essential for engineering N 2 -fixing bacteria that fulfill the demand of crop plants for fixed nitrogen, reducing our reliance on synthetic nitrogen fertilizers. In Azotobacter vinelandii and many other members of Proteobacteria, the two-component system comprising the anti-activator protein (NifL) and the Nif-specific transcriptional activator (NifA)controls the expression of nif genes, encoding the nitrogen fixation machinery. The NifL-NifA system evolved the ability to integrate several environmental cues, such as oxygen, nitrogen, and carbon availability. The nitrogen fixation machinery is thereby only activated under strictly favorable conditions, enabling diazotrophs to thrive in competitive environments. While genetic and biochemical studies have enlightened our understanding of how NifL represses NifA, the molecular basis of NifA sequestration by NifL depends on structural information on their interaction. Here, we present mechanistic insights into how nitrogen fixation is regulated by combining biochemical and genetic approaches with a low-resolution cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) map of the oxidized NifL-NifA complex. Our findings define the interaction surface between NifL and NifA and reveal how this interaction can be manipulated to generate bacterial strains with increased nitrogen fixation rates able to secrete surplus nitrogen outside the cell, a crucial step in engineering improved nitrogen delivery to crop plants.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multi‐Model Ensembles in Ecosystem Modeling: Challenges and Best Practices for Decision‐Making

Ecosystem models are increasingly central to the decision-making for environmental policy, conservation planning, and climate-related investments. Yet, the growing reliance on Multi-Model Ensembles (MMEs) of ecosystem models by practitioners and policymakers, sometimes under tight timelines and imperfect information, has frequently outpaced the scientific rigor required to ensure ensemble reliability. Here, MMEs refer to approaches that combine targeted predictions from multiple models with the expectation of improving robustness and quantifying predictive uncertainty. Poorly designed MMEs may create a false sense of confidence and lead to suboptimal policy and market decisions. This perspective argues that robust decision-making-relevant MMEs must be grounded on two pillars: (1) rigorous Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs), which identify inter-model agreement and disagreement, characterize model uncertainties, and evaluate robustness with observationally based benchmarks—MIPs' diagnostic evaluation is so critical that it must be needed to drive MME's decision in model selection and weighting, especially when only a limited number of models available; and (2) co-design by both stakeholders and scientists to ensure that scenarios, metrics and uncertainty requirements provide decision-relevant information. Building upon the past success and lessons from the existing MIPs-MMEs efforts (e.g., climate/Earth system/crop), we derived the theoretical basis for MMEs, addressed their specific challenges in ecosystem modeling, and highlighted proper consideration of model numbers and diversity, risk of model inter-dependence, effective calibration of model parameters, possible overdue of some ecosystem model development, critical roles of open benchmark data across a wide range of conditions, and suggested use of Artificial Intelligence to support MIPs-MMEs. We highlighted the under-recognized opportunity for MIPs and MMEs to drive scientific progress and innovation through identifying better performing models, systematic benchmarking, feedback loops, and targeted model improvement. By following actionable best practice guidelines, MMEs can evolve from ad hoc aggregation of models into a trusted backbone of environmental policy and decision-making.

ecosystem modeling↗

DOE OSTI2024

Nitrogen acquisition and retention pathways in sustainable perennial bioenergy grass cropping systems

Abstract Perennial tall grasses show promise as bioenergy crops due to high productivity and efficient nutrient use. Ongoing research on bioenergy grasses seeks to reduce their reliance on synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizer, the manufacture of which relies on fossil fuel combustion. Excessive use of fertilizers also causes adverse environmental consequences and leads to the evolutionary loss of plant traits beneficial to sustainable N cycle. Notably, perennial tall grasses have exhibited the potential to maintain high biomass yield without the need for N fertilizer or causing soil N depletion. Perennial grasses can be adept at interacting with their microbial partners to facilitate N acquisition and retention via mechanisms such as biological N fixation and nitrification inhibition. These inherent N management traits should be preserved and optimized at the this early stage of bioenergy grass breeding programs. This review examines the impact of external N on bioenergy grass production and explores the potential of leveraging advantageous N‐cycling attributes of perennial tall grasses, laying groundwork for future management and research efforts. With minimized dependency on external N input, the cultivation of perennial energy grasses will pave the way toward more resilient agricultural systems and play a significant role in addressing key global energy and environmental challenges.

Agriculture↗

DOE OSTI2024

Economic and environmental bottlenecks in the industrial‐scale production of lipid‐derived biofuels from oleaginous yeasts: A review of the current trends and future prospects

Abstract Concerns about climate change and the reliance on fossil fuel reserves have motivated researchers to identify new renewable sources of energy. Biomass holds the potential to replace fossil‐derived products with biofuels and bio‐based chemicals. Plant‐derived lipids are promising sources of biofuels; however, the production of plant oil often leads to the release of massive amounts of carbon dioxide due to deforestation and land‐use change. The production of biofuels via plant oils (such as soybean) also competes with food production and in turn, impacts biodiversity. To mitigate these issues, the production of lipids from oleaginous yeasts could be an excellent alternative by incorporating these microbes into biorefineries utilizing agricultural or forest residues. Eventually, these microbial lipids could be potential sources for producing lipid‐derived biofuels. However, the current conventional methods for the production and recovery of lipids from oleaginous microbes suffer from economic and ecological challenges that affect its industrial‐scale expansion. This review highlights the major economic and environmental bottlenecks for the production of lipid‐derived biofuels from oleaginous yeasts. It also provides perspectives on the strategies that could be adapted on economic and ecological fronts to assist the expansion of the production of microbial lipid‐derived biofuels at an industrial scale.

Agriculture↗

DOE OSTI2021

Control of airborne infectious disease in buildings: Evidence and research priorities

The evolution of SARS-CoV-2 virus has resulted in variants likely to be more readily transmitted through respiratory aerosols, underscoring the increased potential for indoor environmental controls to mitigate risk. Use of tight-fitting face masks to trap infectious aerosol in exhaled breath and reduce inhalation exposure to contaminated air is of critical importance for disease control. Administrative controls including the regulation of occupancy and interpersonal spacing are also important, while presenting social and economic challenges. Indoor engineering controls including ventilation, exhaust, air flow control, filtration, and disinfection by germicidal ultraviolet irradiation can reduce reliance on stringent occupancy restrictions. However, the effects of controls-individually and in combination-on reducing infectious aerosol transfer indoors remain to be clearly characterized to the extent needed to support widespread implementation by building operators. We review aerobiologic and epidemiologic evidence of indoor environmental controls against transmission and present a quantitative aerosol transfer scenario illustrating relative differences in exposure at close-interactive, room, and building scales. We identify an overarching need for investment to implement building controls and evaluate their effectiveness on infection in well-characterized and real-world settings, supported by specific, methodological advances. Finally, improved understanding of engineering control effectiveness guides implementation at scale while considering occupant comfort, operational challenges, and energy costs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Genome-wide DNA methylation patterns harbour signatures of hatchling sex and past incubation temperature in a species with environmental sex determination

Conservation of thermally sensitive species depends on monitoring organismal and population-level responses to environmental change in real time. Epigenetic processes are increasingly recognized as key integrators of environmental conditions into developmentally plastic responses, and attendant epigenomic data sets hold potential for revealing cryptic phenotypes relevant to conservation efforts. Here, we demonstrate the utility of genome-wide DNA methylation (DNAm) patterns in the face of climate change for a group of especially vulnerable species, those with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD). Due to their reliance on thermal cues during development to determine sexual fate, contemporary shifts in temperature are predicted to skew offspring sex ratios and ultimately destabilize sensitive populations. Using reduced-representation bisulphite sequencing, we profiled the DNA methylome in blood cells of hatchling American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis), a TSD species lacking reliable markers of sexual dimorphism in early life stages. We identified 120 sex-associated differentially methylated cytosines (DMCs; FDR < 0.1) in hatchlings incubated under a range of temperatures, as well as 707 unique temperature-associated DMCs. We further developed DNAm-based models capable of predicting hatchling sex with 100% accuracy (in 20 training samples and four test samples) and past incubation temperature with a mean absolute error of 1.2°C (in four test samples) based on the methylation status of 20 and 24 loci, respectively. Though largely independent of epigenomic patterning occurring in the embryonic gonad during TSD, DNAm patterns in blood cells may serve as nonlethal markers of hatchling sex and past incubation conditions in conservation applications. These findings also raise intriguing questions regarding tissue-specific epigenomic patterning in the context of developmental plasticity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Responses of vascular plant fine roots and associated microbial communities to whole-ecosystem warming and elevated CO 2 in northern peatlands

Warming and elevated CO 2 (eCO 2 ) are expected to facilitate vascular plant encroachment in peatlands. The rhizosphere, where microbial activity is fueled by root turnover and exudates, plays a crucial role in biogeochemical cycling, and will likely at least partially dictate the response of the belowground carbon cycle to climate changes. We leveraged the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) experiment, to explore the effects of a whole-ecosystem warming gradient (+0°C to 9°C) and eCO 2 on vascular plant fine roots and their associated microbes. We combined trait-based approaches with the profiling of fungal and prokaryote communities in plant roots and rhizospheres, through amplicon sequencing. Warming promoted self-reliance for resource uptake in trees and shrubs, while saprophytic fungi and putative chemoorganoheterotrophic bacteria utilizing plant-derived carbon substrates were favored in the root zone. Conversely, eCO 2 promoted associations between trees and ectomycorrhizal fungi. Trees mostly associated with short-distance exploration-type fungi that preferentially use labile soil N. Additionally, eCO 2 decreased the relative abundance of saprotrophs in tree roots. Our results indicate that plant fine-root trait variation is a crucial mechanism through which vascular plants in peatlands respond to climate change via their influence on microbial communities that regulate biogeochemical cycles.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Providing biological context for GWAS results using eQTL regulatory and co‐expression networks in Populus

Summary Our study utilized genome‐wide association studies (GWAS) to link nucleotide variants to traits in Populus trichocarpa , a species with rapid linkage disequilibrium decay. The aim was to overcome the challenge of interpreting statistical associations at individual loci without sufficient biological context, which often leads to reliance solely on gene annotations from unrelated model organisms. We employed an integrative approach that included GWAS targeting multiple traits using three individual techniques for lignocellulose phenotyping, expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analysis to construct transcriptional regulatory networks around each candidate locus and co‐expression analysis to provide biological context for these networks, using lignocellulose biosynthesis in Populus trichocarpa as a case study. The research identified three candidate genes potentially involved in lignocellulose formation, including one previously recognized gene (Potri.005G116800/VND1, a critical regulator of secondary cell wall formation) and two genes (Potri.012G130000/AtSAP9 and Potri.004G202900/BIC1) with newly identified putative roles in lignocellulose biosynthesis. Our integrative approach offers a framework for providing biological context to loci associated with trait variation, facilitating the discovery of new genes and regulatory networks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Stochastic Reduced-Order Model for Statistical Microstructure Descriptors Evolution

Integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) models have been a crucial building block for modern materials development, relieving heavy reliance on experiments and significantly accelerating the materials design process. However, ICME models are also computationally expensive, particularly with respect to time integration for dynamics, which hinders the ability to study statistical ensembles and thermodynamic properties of large systems for long time scales. To alleviate the computational bottleneck, we propose to model the evolution of statistical microstructure descriptors as a continuous-time stochastic process using a non-linear Langevin equation, where the probability density function (PDF) of the statistical microstructure descriptors, which are also the quantities of interests (QoIs), is modeled by the Fokker–Planck equation. In this work, we discuss how to calibrate the drift and diffusion terms of the Fokker–Planck equation from the theoretical and computational perspectives. The calibrated Fokker–Planck equation can be used as a stochastic reduced-order model to simulate the microstructure evolution of statistical microstructure descriptors PDF. Considering statistical microstructure descriptors in the microstructure evolution as QoIs, we demonstrate our proposed methodology in three integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) models: kinetic Monte Carlo, phase field, and molecular dynamics simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Oxygen Storage Incorporated Into Net Power and the Allam–Fetvedt Oxy-Fuel sCO2 Power Cycle—Techno-Economic Analysis

Abstract With the planned future reliance on variable renewable energy, the ability to store energy for prolonged time periods will be required to reduce the disruption of market fluctuations. This paper presents a method to analyze a hybrid liquid-oxygen (LOx) storage/direct-fired supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) power cycle and optimize the economic performance over a diverse range of scenarios. The system utilizes a modified version of the NET Power process to produce energy when energy demand exceeds the supply while displacing much of the cost of the air separation unit (ASU) energy requirements through cryogenic storage of oxygen. The model uses marginal cost of energy data to determine the optimal times to charge and discharge the system over a given scenario. The model then applies ramp rates and other time-dependent factors to generate an economic model for the system without storage considerations. The size of the storage system is then applied to create a realistic model of the plant operation. From the real plant operation model, the amount of energy charged and discharged, the capital expenditures (CAPEX) of each system, energy costs and revenue and other parameters can be calculated. The economic parameters are then combined to calculate the net present value (NPV) of the system for the given scenario. The model was then run through the SMPSO genetic algorithm in Python for a variety of geographic regions and large-scale scenarios (high solar penetration) to maximize the NPV based on multiple parameters for each subsystem. The LOx storage requirements will also be discussed.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sparse measurement medical CT reconstruction using multi-fused block matching denoising priors

A major challenge for medical X-ray CT imaging is reducing the number of X-ray projections to lower radiation dosage and reduce scan times without compromising image quality. However these under-determined inverse imaging problems rely on the formulation of an expressive prior model to constrain the solution space while remaining computationally tractable. Traditional analytical reconstruction methods like Filtered Back Projection (FBP) often fail with sparse measurements, producing artifacts due to their reliance on the Shannon-Nyquist Sampling Theorem. Consensus Equilibrium, which is a generalization of Plug and Play, is a recent advancement in Model-Based Iterative Reconstruction (MBIR), has facilitated the use of multiple denoisers are prior models in an optimization free framework to capture complex, non-linear prior information. However, 3D prior modelling in a Plug and Play approach for volumetric image reconstruction requires long processing time due to high computing requirement. Instead of directly using a 3D prior, this work proposes a BM3D Multi Slice Fusion (BM3D-MSF) prior that uses multiple 2D image denoisers fused to act as a fully 3D prior model in Plug and Play reconstruction approach. Our approach does not require training and are thus able to circumvent ethical issues related with patient training data and are readily deployable in varying noise and measurement sparsity levels. In addition, reconstruction with the BM3D-MSF prior achieves similar reconstruction image quality as fully 3D image priors, but with significantly reduced computational complexity. We test our method on clinical CT data and demonstrate that our approach improves reconstructed image quality.

Hossain, Maliha [ORNL]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging data mining, active learning, and domain adaptation for efficient discovery of advanced oxygen evolution electrocatalysts

Developing advanced catalysts for acidic oxygen evolution reaction (OER) is crucial for sustainable hydrogen production. This study presents a multistage machine learning (ML) approach to streamline the discovery and optimization of complex multimetallic catalysts. Our method integrates data mining, active learning, and domain adaptation throughout the materials discovery process. Unlike traditional trial-and-error methods, this approach systematically narrows the exploration space using domain knowledge with minimized reliance on subjective intuition. Then, the active learning module efficiently refines element composition and synthesis conditions through iterative experimental feedback. The process culminated in the discovery of a promising Ru-Mn-Ca-Pr oxide catalyst. Our workflow also enhances theoretical simulations with domain adaptation strategy, providing deeper mechanistic insights aligned with experimental findings. By leveraging diverse data sources and multiple ML strategies, we demonstrate an efficient pathway for electrocatalyst discovery and optimization. This comprehensive, data-driven approach represents a paradigm shift and potentially benchmark in electrocatalysts research.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Toward polymer upcycling—adding value and tackling circularity

Plastics have revolutionized modern life, but have created a global waste crisis driven by our reliance and demand for low-cost, disposable materials. New approaches are vital to address challenges related to plastics waste heterogeneity, along with the property reductions induced by mechanical recycling. Chemical recycling and upcycling of polymers may enable circularity through separation strategies, chemistries that promote closed-loop recycling inherent to macromolecular design, and transformative processes that shift the life-cycle landscape. Polymer upcycling schemes may enable lower-energy pathways and minimal environmental impacts compared with traditional mechanical and chemical recycling. The emergence of industrial adoption of recycling and upcycling approaches is encouraging, solidifying the critical role for these strategies in addressing the fate of plastics and driving advances in next-generation materials design.

Korley, LaShanda T. J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Thrifting iridium for hydrogen

Using renewable electricity to produce hydrogen fuel reduces reliance on fossil fuels. Proton exchange membrane water electrolyzers (PEMWEs) are the highest-performing commercialized technology. These devices split water into oxygen gas and hydrogen ions (protons) at the anode. The protons then migrate through an ion-conducting polymer membrane (ionomer) to be reduced to hydrogen gas at the cathode. Further, the anode reaction’s harsh environment requires the use of precious-metal catalysts, such as iridium oxide (IrO x ). Given the expense and scarcity, the design of electrodes that minimize the use of precious metals without compromising the requisite stability and activity is desired for large-scale hydrogen production. On page 791 of this issue, Shi et al. report that anchoring IrO x catalysts onto porous cerium-oxide (CeO x ) supports maintains performance even with much reduced precious metal use.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2023

Taxonomic distribution of metabolic functions in bacteria associated with Trichodesmium consortia

The photosynthetic and diazotrophic cyanobacterium Trichodesmium is a key contributor to marine biogeochemical cycles in the subtropical-oligotrophic oceans. Trichodesmium form colonies that harbor a distinct microbial community in comparison to the surrounding seawater. The presence of their associated bacteria can expand Trichodesmium’s functional potential and is predicted to influence the cycling of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and iron (C, N, P, and Fe). To link the bacteria associated with Trichodesmium to key functional traits and elucidate how community structure can influence nutrient cycling, we characterized Red Sea Trichodesmium colonies using metagenomics and metaproteomics. Colonies harbored bacteria that typically associate with algae and particles, such as the ubiquitous Alteromonas macleodii, but also lineages specific to Trichodesmium, such as members from the order Balneolales. The majority of associated bacteria were auxotrophic for different vitamins, indicating their dependency on vitamin production by Trichodesmium. The associated bacteria carry functional traits including siderophore biosynthesis, reduced phosphorus metabolism, and denitrification pathways. The analysis supports Trichodesmium as an active hotspot for C, N, P, Fe, and vitamin exchange. In turn, Trichodesmium may rely on associated bacteria to meet its high Fe demand as several lineages synthesize photolabile siderophores (e.g., vibrioferrin, rhizoferrin, petrobactin) which can enhance the bioavailability of particulate Fe to the entire consortium. Collectively, the results indicate that Trichodesmium colonies provide a structure where these interactions can take place. While further studies are required to clarify the exact nature of these interactions, Trichodesmium’s reliance on particle and algae-associated bacteria and the observed redundancy of key functional traits likely underpins the resilience of Trichodesmium within an ever-changing global environment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗