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DOE OSTI2024

Macroscopic Traffic Modeling Using Probe Vehicle Data: A Machine Learning Approach

Abstract The macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD) captures an orderly relationship among traffic flow, density, and speed at the network level. It is a simple yet powerful tool for modeling traffic dynamics in large urban networks with broad application in traffic control and management. However, empirically derived MFDs in urban regions require high-resolution traffic data from the network. Having the network flow and vehicular density estimated at the (granular) census tract level using vehicle probe data, we apply machine learning methods to predict the MFDs across U.S. urban areas and capture the impacts of location-specific input features on the network flow–density relationships at a large scale. The results show that, among the four tested machine learning approaches (Random Forest, XGBoost, Support Vector Machine, and Neural Network), XGBoost delivers the best performance in predicting network traffic flow based on vehicular density and location attributes. Using interaction Shapley Additive explanation (SHAP) values and partial correlation analysis, we examine the factors influencing MFD shapes across different locations. Our empirical findings reveal that across U.S. urban areas, network topology, transportation infrastructure, and land use are primary factors shaping MFD curves, while demand and trip-related factors play a lesser role. Specifically, higher ranking roads, centrality, and development levels correlate positively with network capacity and critical density, whereas negative associations are observed for network connectivity, mixed-use development, and road roughness levels.

Jin, Ling↗

DOE OSTI2025

An approach for spent nuclear fuel containment integrity verification using gas tagging

Verification of containment integrity is required for spent nuclear fuel (SNF) managed by the commercial nuclear industry and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), especially after extended storage. Certain SNF storage systems, such as the DOE road-ready dry storage system, hold several packaged containments within a welded over-canister. These packaged containments are called Department of Energy Standard Canisters (DOESCs). DOESC leakage identification is challenging because their containment boundary cannot be accessed for testing and their contents (i.e., SNF and fill gas) are often similar. There are concerns that this could result in costly characterization and repackaging operations of DOE road-ready dry storage systems if compromised DOESCs are suspected. Here, to address these concerns, this paper presents an approach for applying a gas tagging process using xenon to uniquely identify compromised inaccessible containments following extended storage. The containments considered for this application are seven DOESCs, each packaged within a single over-canister. Two different SNF loading configurations from the Advanced Test Reactor and Fort Saint Vrain nuclear power plant are considered. These configurations are used to represent research reactor aluminum-clad spent nuclear fuel (ASNF) and TRi-structural ISOtropic (TRISO) SNF types. Results for this application show that for ASNF and TRISO type fuels for which the selected fuels are representative, the volume of taggant required at loading is determined primarily by the lower detection limit and leak rate of taggant from a compromised DOESC, rather than the amount of fission-generated xenon in the loaded fuel. While the application presented is suited for larger leaks, smaller leaks could be detected by modifying certain design parameters. This gas tagging approach can also be applied to other DOE containments and advanced reactor SNF storage systems.

07 - ISOTOPES AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Recent developments in catalyst-related PEM fuel cell durability

Cost and durability remain the two major barriers to the widespread commercialization of polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell (PEMFC)-based power systems, especially for the most impactful but challenging fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) application. Commercial FCEVs are now on the road; however, their PEMFC systems do not meet the cost targets established by the U.S. Department of Energy, primarily due to the high platinum loading needed on the cathode to achieve the requisite performance and lifetime. Furthermore, while the activities of a number of commercial Pt-based alloy cathode catalysts exceed the beginning-of-life (BOL) targets, these activities, and the overall cathode performance, degrade via a variety of mechanisms described herein. Degradation is mitigated in current FCEVs by utilizing a cathode catalyst with a lower BOL activity (e.g., much lower transition metal alloy content and larger BOL nanoparticle size), necessitating higher catalyst loadings, and through the utilization of system controls that avoid conditions known to exacerbate degradation processes, such as limiting the fuel cell stack voltage range. The design and development of active and robust materials and eliminating the need for vehicle mitigation strategies would greatly simplify the operating system, allowing for greater transient operation, avoiding large hybridization, and curtailing of fuel cell power. Although system mitigation strategies have provided the near-term pathway for FCEV commercialization, material-specific solutions are required to further reduce costs and improve operability and efficiency. Future material developments should focus on stabilization of the electrode structure and minimization of the catalyst particle susceptibility to dissolution caused by oxide formation and reduction over PEMFC cathode-relevant operating potentials plus minimization of support corrosion. Ex situ accelerated stress tests have provided insight into the processes responsible for material and performance degradation and will continue to provide useful information on the relative stability of materials and benchmarks for robust and stable materials-based solutions not requiring system mitigation strategies to achieve adequate lifetime.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Coal-derived electrically conductive asphalt pavements for snow/ice melting: From laboratory to field

Timely removal of ice and snow from roads is critical to safe, fast, and uninterrupted transportation networks in cold regions. Constructing electrically conductive asphalt pavements to melt the ice and snow on the roads through resistive eating is an emerging alternative technology to traditional snow/ice removal approaches such as utilizing snowplow machines and deicing chemicals. Carbon-based fibers and fillers including carbon fiber and graphite have been widely reported to make electrically conductive hot mix asphalt mixtures for pavement snow/ice-melting applications. This study aimed to develop and demonstrate a novel type of electrically conductive asphalt pavements for snow/ice-melting, which utilizes electrically conductive cold mix asphalt (CMA) mixtures incorporating coal-derived carbon-based coke aggregate as resistive heating elements. Both laboratory experiments and field tests were conducted to investigate the electrical, mechanical, and thermal properties of such electrically conductive asphalt mixtures and pavements. The laboratory experiment results indicated that the electrically conductive CMA mixtures incorporating coke aggregate had sufficiently high electrical conductivity and satisfactory mechanical performance and the pavement prototype slab utilizing a thin layer of such CMA mixtures could successfully raise the pavement surface temperatures to 8.3–11.7 °C rom a low temperature of –5 °C with an input power density of 473 W/m 2 . The field test results showed that the full-scale coal-derived electrically conductive asphalt pavements were able to increase the pavement surface temperatures when electricity was applied, but the magnitude of temperature increase was highly dependent on the power density. Furthermore, it is promising to use coke aggregate to construct coal-derived electrically conductive asphalt pavements for snow/ice melting.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Transportation in net-zero emissions futures: Insights from the EMF-37 model intercomparison study

Transportation is currently the largest source of U.S. anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, at about a third of the total. Achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century will require substantial reductions in transportation emissions across passenger and freight travel. Here we leverage a model intercomparison study to explore the role of transportation in scenarios achieving net-zero economy-wide CO 2 emissions by 2050. We find the transport sector is poised to play the most significant role in reducing demand-side emissions, mostly driven by technology substitution, as modeling results suggest a limited role for mode shifting and for reduced use of personal car travel in the U.S. Among various technology solutions, models show agreement that passenger on-road vehicles will largely transition to electric vehicles (EVs), while solutions to decarbonize heavier travel modes are more diverse and include greater use of liquid biofuels and hydrogen. Research should continue to investigate the evolution of on-road electrification, the role of biofuels and hydrogen across heavier travel modes, and the role of mode shifting and travel behavior change to support personal transportation decarbonization at national and regional scales to temper the rapid growth in clean fuel and electricity demand.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Two trillion gallons: Fuel savings from fuel economy improvements to US light-duty vehicles, 1975–2018

Since 1975, the fuel economy of new light-duty vehicles sold in the U.S. has almost doubled. Fuel economy improvements on laboratory tests gradually became real improvements on the road as newer, more efficient vehicles replaced older less efficient ones. Fleet-wide fuel economy gains produced large fuel savings. In this paper, we show that fuel economy gains measured on laboratory test cycles, adjusted for on-road conditions and weighted by the distribution of vehicles by age and their relative use, closely match estimates by the Federal Highway Administration based primarily on traffic counts and motor fuel tax records. Furthermore, adjusting for the rebound effect of fuel economy on vehicle miles traveled, we estimate the fuel savings, CO 2 emissions reductions and dollars saved on fuel due to fuel economy improvements over the past 43 years. Through the end of 2018, estimated cumulative fuel savings amount to approximately 2 trillion gallons of gasoline. We estimate that roughly one-fifth of the savings can be attributed to gasoline price increases over the period and four-fifths to fuel economy and greenhouse gas (ghg) standards.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Carbon dioxide pipeline network transportation cost model: evaluating economic and geographic factors for efficient carbon capture, storage, and utilization

This study presents a comprehensive pipeline network modeling framework to estimate the CO 2 delivery cost for CO 2 utilization and geologic CO 2 storage across the United States. We developed a Python-based CO 2 pipeline transportation cost model leveraging Argonne National Laboratory’s pipeline engineering expertise and detailed natural gas transmission pipeline cost data across U.S. regions. Using existing road corridors as practical routing guides, the model designs pipeline networks that aggregate CO 2 from one or multiple sources and deliver it to selected destinations. It then minimizes the total transportation cost by optimizing pipeline diameters and incorporating booster pumps. A key contribution is the incorporation of up-to-date, region-specific cost factors with itemized components for materials, labor, miscellaneous construction expenses, and right-of-way acquisition. Results emphasize that regional variation and economies of scale associated with CO 2 pipeline costs are significant and should be explicitly accounted for in screening and planning studies. By combining realistic routing constraints with regionalized cost inputs, the model provides transparent design methodology and location-specific insights into source–destination delivery costs, including the effects of routing complexity along existing road networks. We demonstrate the model with two illustrative case studies – one for CO 2 storage and one for CO 2 utilization – in which the model designs pipeline networks spanning hundreds of miles across the states, collecting CO 2 from multiple sources and delivering it to designated endpoints while minimizing levelized cost of delivery via diameter and compression optimization. The model offers a practical, scalable approach for alternative design option screening and early-stage CO 2 transportation planning.

CCS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Strategies to mitigate urban heat: Effects on overheating and cloud formation

This study evaluates the effectiveness of various urban heat island (UHI) overheating mitigation strategies and their associated impacts on urban cloud dynamics and thermal processes. This study shows cloud-resolving and urban-resolving modeling results estimating the impact of Houston-Galveston heat mitigation scenarios and other resilient strategies contemplated in the Climate Adaptation Plan and Resilient Houston reports. The simulated scenarios include high intensity green rooftops, rooftop photovoltaic solar panels, enhanced urban irrigation, white/cool roofs and roads, and street trees. We contrast the adaptation scenarios against a present baseline case, a no city scenario and a larger and denser city as projected by the Houston-Galveston Area Council for 2045. During the daytime, cooling strategies such as cool roofs, cool roads, and green roofs exhibit superior performance in mitigating urban overheating. At night, enhanced urban irrigation emerges as the most effective cooling intervention. Cooling strategies significantly reduce sensible heat flux partitioning during the day, a process that reduces the uplift of air, suppressing the formation of urban shallow cumulus clouds. The extent of urban cloud mixing ratio is reduced in proportion to the decrease in sensible heating. Under the BEP-Tree scenario, which includes wind effects and evapotranspiration driven by a stomatal conductance model, urban trees demonstrated negligible environmental cooling effects and minimal urban cloud modifications. In contrast, the scenarios with more urban cooling and higher latent heat fluxes led to suppressed urban clouds. The net cooling effect achieved by the heat mitigation strategies is influenced by a combination of indirect processes, including the reduction of downwelling longwave radiation flux, due to reduced cloud presence, while some warming is attributed to a modest increase in shortwave radiation that offsets the cooling benefit. Additionally, reduced heat dissipation, weakened thermal gradients, and diminished vertical mixing over urban areas further moderate the cooling potential. These findings highlight the pivotal role of clouds and moist atmospheric processes in shaping the UHI effect and offer insights for designing more effective urban cooling strategies.

albedo changes↗

DOE OSTI2021

Geolocated dataset of Chinese overseas development finance

China is now the world's largest source of bilateral development finance and will likely continue to play a prominent role in sovereign lending through its multi-billion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative. This paper introduces major methodological enhancements in tracking this finance: the use of an original application programming interface (API) to gathers news in multiple languages; double verification of every record to ensure every finance commitment has been formalized; and visual geo-location to trace the precise footprint of every project. The resulting dataset enables economic, environmental, and social analyses with high-precision spatial accuracy, as well as spatiotemporal monitoring by project stakeholders and enhanced planning by project managers. It covers the years 2008-2019 to enable analysis before and after the announcement of the Belt and Road Initiative. It includes 862 finance commitments, 669 of which have geographic location, to 94 countries across the world.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Addressing bias in bagging and boosting regression models

As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes widespread, there is increasing attention on investigating bias in machine learning (ML) models. Previous research concentrated on classification problems, with little emphasis on regression models. This paper presents an easy-to-apply and effective methodology for mitigating bias in bagging and boosting regression models, that is also applicable to any model trained through minimizing a differentiable loss function. Our methodology measures bias rigorously and extends the ML model's loss function with a regularization term to penalize high correlations between model errors and protected attributes. We applied our approach to three popular tree-based ensemble models: a random forest model (RF), a gradient-boosted model (GBT), and an extreme gradient boosting model (XGBoost). We implemented our methodology on a case study for predicting road-level traffic volume, where RF, GBT, and XGBoost models were shown to have high accuracy. Despite high accuracy, the ML models were shown to perform poorly on roads in minority-populated areas. Our bias mitigation approach reduced minority-related bias by over 50%.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Health co-benefits of achieving sustainable net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in California

The achievement of net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2100 is required to limit global temperature rise below 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Earlier accomplishments of net-zero GHG emissions in developed regions support this global target. In this study, we have developed a road map for California to achieve net-zero GHG emissions sustainably in 2050 by using detailed modelling of energy system transformation, cross-sectoral connectivity and technology penetration, as well as quantify the associated health co-benefits from reduced co-emitted air pollutants. We find that approximately 14,000 premature deaths can be avoided in California in 2050 and that these health co-benefits are disproportionately higher in disadvantaged communities (that is, 35% of avoided deaths will come from 25% of the state’s population). The annualized monetary benefits (US$215 billion) exceed the GHG abatement cost (US$106 billion) by US$109 billion. This road map requires the use of bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration technology to offset some GHG emissions. However, this technology comes at a price as it would emit a considerable amount of air pollutants and reduce health co-benefits by US$4 billion. Nevertheless, our analysis shows that ambitious GHG reduction efforts can provide substantial health co-benefits, especially for residents of disadvantaged communities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Increased flood exposure in the Pacific Northwest following earthquake-driven subsidence and sea-level rise

Climate-driven sea-level rise is increasing the frequency of coastal flooding worldwide, exacerbated locally by factors like land subsidence from groundwater and resource extraction. However, a process rarely considered in future sea-level rise scenarios is sudden (over minutes) land subsidence associated with great (>M8) earthquakes, which can exceed 1 m. Along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts, the next great Cascadia subduction zone earthquake could cause up to 2 m of sudden coastal subsidence, dramatically raising sea level, expanding floodplains, and increasing the flood risk to local communities. Here, we quantify the potential expansion of the 1% floodplain (i.e., the area with an annual flood risk of 1%) under low (~0.5 m), medium (~1 m), and high (~2 m) earthquake-driven subsidence scenarios at 24 Cascadia estuaries. If a great earthquake occurred today, floodplains could expand by 90 km 2 (low), 160 km 2 (medium), or 300 km 2 (high subsidence), more than doubling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario. By 2100, when climate-driven sea-level rise will compound the hazard, a great earthquake could expand floodplains by 170 km 2 (low), 240 km 2 (medium), or 370 km 2 (high subsidence), more than tripling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario compared to the 2023 floodplain. Our findings can support decision-makers and coastal communities along the Cascadia subduction zone as they prepare for compound hazards from the earthquake cycle and climate-driven sea-level rise and provide critical insights for tectonically active coastlines globally.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Identifying rolling resistance and air resistance simultaneously for an electric truck

Accurately estimating rolling and air resistance is essential for predicting the energy consumption of vehicles. This study presents a field-based approach using a rolldown test to simultaneously determine rolling and air resistance coefficients. Unlike prior methods that frequently used simulations or models, we employ a goal programming methodology to improve precision and evaluate the actual vehicle and environmental conditions. Our methodology was tested using a Class 8 Freightliner eCascadia on a surveyed road section, ensuring controlled conditions for data collection. By analyzing the time–velocity relationship across multiple test runs, we derived resistance coefficients for both loaded and unloaded conditions. The study confirms that rolling resistance is largely independent of velocity at low speeds but exhibits a nonlinear dependency at higher speeds. Additionally, road surface conditions, tire condition, axle configuration, aerodynamic properties, and weather conditions significantly impact resistance values, emphasizing the need for real-world testing rather than relying solely on standardized projections. Our results align with existing literature while demonstrating the efficacy of the goal programming approach in refining resistance estimates. This work contributes to improved vehicle energy modeling, offering practical insights for fleet operators and policymakers seeking accurate energy consumption predictions for electric trucks operating under varying environmental conditions.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Thermal Analysis of Wireless Power Transfer Coils for Dynamic Wireless Electric Vehicle Charging

In this paper, safe operating conditions of a wireless power transfer coil were identified and road infrastructure for a dynamic wireless electric vehicle charging system was studied. Magneto-thermal simulations were used to map the power loss directly into the computed fluid dynamics solver. This method allowed the authors to analyze the heating pattern of the enclosed wireless power transfer coil in the road structure, as well as for the vehicle coil. Thermal heating patterns for three types of rectangular coil structures were analyzed. Heating patterns were analyzed for 200 kW coils and different magnetic field densities in the magnetic core.

Wojda, Rafal↗

DOE OSTI2020

Formal methods approach to the charging facility location problem for battery electric vehicles

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are becoming more prevalent as improvements in battery technology and energy management continue to be made. As the number of electric vehicles grows, the demand for fast-charging stations is expected to increase dramatically. Thus, building new charging station infrastructure efficiently will be key to reducing upfront costs while meeting consumer demands. In this work, we propose a method for choosing a set of charging station locations that are optimized based on a set of given common vehicle demand points. As part of this solution, we also offer a novel abstraction of the road network on which energy-efficient paths that account for charge-time delays may be found. The current algorithm chooses the optimal charging locations for a single agent which has a route objective specified using temporal logic. To demonstrate the proposed method, the running example shows how a charging station could be chosen for an electric delivery vehicle. Simulations were run on sample road networks with a given set of demand points to service and potential charging station locations to compare. The method is shown to successfully rank potential charging stations in terms of their expected average charging time cost.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Energy-Optimal Vehicle Longitudinal Motion Control via Pontryagin’s Minimum Principle and Ultra-Local Model

Longitudinal vehicle motion control is essential for enhancing performance and optimizing a vehicle’s energy usage. However, it remains a challenging task due to the nonlinear and uncertain nature of vehicle dynamics, along with varying driving conditions. This paper presents a novel ultra-local optimal control approach based on Pontryagin’s Minimum Principle (PMP) that circumvents the need for detailed system identification by employing an ultra-local model. The control objective is to minimize the total energy consumption under boundary conditions while ensuring smooth traction force generation. The proposed approach is evaluated using a high-fidelity vehicle model in three representative scenarios: (i) nominal driving, (ii) a change in tire road friction coefficient (TRFC) from 0.5 to 0.65 and road slope from 0% to 5% during the maneuver, with target velocity unchanged, and (iii) a change in target velocity from 20 m/s to 0 m/s during the maneuver, while maintaining nominal TRFC and slope conditions. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method delivers robust performance, effectively balancing consumption and tracking accuracy in all tested scenarios.

Waleed khan, Muhammad [The University of Texas at ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multilane Automated Driving With Optimal Control and Mixed-Integer Programming

Road vehicle lane changes often initiate traffic disturbances and can therefore impact road networks’ energy and time efficiency. Furthermore, unexpected changes in traffic conditions may also render lane changes counterproductive for the lane-changing vehicle. Vehicle-to-vehicle connectivity combined with anticipative control could address these challenges via improved lane change decisions by automated vehicles. In a move toward this objective, receding horizon control cast as a mixed-integer quadratic program is used to plan lane changing and acceleration in a coupled optimization. A long-term pacing module, based on Pontryagin’s minimum principle from optimal control theory, sets terminal and input references for receding horizon control to target a user’s expected travel time. To remove nonlinear vehicle dynamics from the receding horizon controller, lane change commands are passed to a pure pursuit steering module whose response is approximated by a second-order linear model. Here, comparison against a rule-based reactive algorithm in arterial and highway scenarios shows an 8.9%–13.7% reduction in energy consumption and a 5.2%–10.3% reduction in the travel time, along with navigational improvements.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sliding Mode Network Perimeter Control

Urban traffic congestion is a chronic problem faced by many cities in the US and worldwide. It results in inefficient infrastructure use as well as increased vehicle fuel consumption and emission levels. Congestion is intertwined with delay, as road users waste precious hours on the road, which in turn reduces productivity. Researchers have developed, and continue to design, tools and systems to alleviate this problem. Network perimeter control is one such tool that has been studied extensively. It attempts to control the flow of vehicles entering a protected area to ensure that the congested regime predetermined by the Network Fundamental Diagram (NFD) is not reached. In this paper, a method derived from sliding mode control theory is presented. Its main advantages over proportional-integral controllers include (1) minimal tuning, (2) no linearization of the governing equations, (3) no assumptions with regard to the shape of the NFD, and (4) ability to handle various demand profiles without the need to retune the controller. A sliding mode controller was implemented and tested on a congested grid network. The results show that the proposed controller produces network-wide delay savings and disperses congestion effectively.

42 ENGINEERING↗