Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “robust statistics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Accelerating multicanonical sampling with irreversibility

Flat-histogram Monte Carlo simulations are well-established, robust methods to perform random walks in a physical observable or parameter space, making them suitable for finding ground states or studying phase transitions in complex systems in statistical physics. However, their efficiency can be limited by the time to attain the desired flat distribution, which is generally unknown prior to the simulations. In particular, they might suffer from slowing down towards the end of a simulation due to the diffusive nature of random walks. In this work we apply irreversibility to the multicanonical Monte Carlo method via the lifting approach to alleviate this behavior. We achieve a 2–4 times speedup in ground-state search for a two-dimensional (2D) Ising model, and up to an order of magnitude of speedup for finding the ground-state energy in an Edwards–Anderson spin glass, compared to traditional multicanonical sampling. In conclusion, the round-trip times between ground states show a narrower distribution and are significantly shorter compared to the reversible counterpart, suggesting that a lower convergence time with a smaller time variance is feasible.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

The DECADE cosmic shear project IV: cosmological constraints from 107 million galaxies across 5,400 deg$^2$ of the sky

We present cosmological constraints from the Dark Energy Camera All Data Everywhere (DECADE) cosmic shear analysis. This work uses shape measurements for 107 million galaxies measured through Dark Energy Camera (DECam) imaging of $5,\!412$ deg$^2$ of sky that is outside the Dark Energy Survey (DES) footprint. We derive constraints on the cosmological parameters $S_8 = 0.791^{+0.027}_{-0.032}$ and $Ω_{\rm m} =0.269^{+0.034}_{-0.050}$ for the $Λ$CDM model, which are consistent with those from other weak lensing surveys and from the cosmic microwave background. We combine our results with cosmic shear results from DES Y3 at the likelihood level, since the two datasets span independent areas on the sky. The combined measurements, which cover $\approx\! 10,\!000$ deg$^2$, prefer $S_8 = 0.791 \pm 0.023$ and $Ω_{\rm m} = 0.277^{+0.034}_{-0.046}$ under the $Λ$CDM model. These results are the culmination of a series of rigorous studies that characterize and validate the DECADE dataset and the associated analysis methodologies (Anbajagane et. al 2025a,b,c). Overall, the DECADE project demonstrates that the cosmic shear analysis methods employed in Stage-III weak lensing surveys can provide robust cosmological constraints for fairly inhomogeneous datasets. This opens the possibility of using data that have been previously categorized as ``unusable'' for cosmic shear analyses, thereby increasing the statistical power of upcoming weak lensing surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1990

DS/LPI autocorrelation detection in noise plus random-tone interference

An analysis is presented of a frequency-noncoherent, two-lag autocorrelation statistic for the wideband detection of random binary phase-shift keying (BPSK) signals in noise plus random multitone interference. It is shown that this detector is quite robust to the presence or absence of interference and its specific parameter values contrary to an energy detector. The rule assumes knowledge of the data rate and the active scenario under H0. The purpose of the paper is to promote the real-time autocorrelation domain and its samples (lags) as a viable approach for detecting random signals in dense environments.

Hinedi, Sami↗
NASA NTRS1993

Radiative transfer modelling of discontinuous tree canopies at microwave frequencies

Development of a first-order radiative transfer model for predicting backscatter from tree canopies has been underway at the University of Michigan Radiation Laboratory for some time. This model is known as the Michigan Microwave Canopy Scattering (MIMICS) model. This article presents the second-generation MIMICS model (MIMICS II) which accounts for canopies with discontinuous (open) crown layer geometries. MIMICS II models open crown layers by treating the location, size, and shape of the individual tree crowns as random variables. The backscattering coefficients for the canopy are then determined by introducing statistics derived from these parameters into the radiative transfer solution. Application of the radiative transfer equations to the discontinuous canopy geometry is presented. The resulting model is a robust fully polarimetric solution that is applicable over a wide variety of canopy architectures. Model simulations are compared to results generated with the continuous canopy model. The effect of the open crown geometry is found to be most significant at shallow incidence angles and at high frequencies for trees with well-developed crowns. Under these conditions, the gaps in the crown layer give rise to a notable increase in crown layer transmissivity which allows the radar to see through to the lower layers of the canopy more easily, thereby directly affecting the backscatter contribution of the trunks and ground.

Mcdonald, K. C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aerocapture Trajectory Design for Uranus Orbiter

Introduction: The recently released National Academies Planetary Science and Astrobiology Decadal Survey 2023-2032 [1] identified the Ice Giants as the top priority science destination. While the survey acknowledged the potential for either a Uranus Orbiter and Probe (UOP) mission or a Neptune-Triton Odyssey mission, it ultimately identified the former as the highest priority new flagship mission. UOP missions calls for a launch window of opportunity between 2031-2038 with 12-15 year interplanetary cruise time along with a fully-propulsive Uranus Orbit Insertion burn on the order of a few km/s. However, a mission to Uranus with the same science payload could utilize aerocapture for orbit insertion to achieve both a significant reduction in the interplanetary cruise time and reduction in propulsive burn costs. Why Aerocapture: Aerocapture is a promising propellant and time-saving orbital insertion technique for planetary destinations with an atmosphere. Although not flight-proven, previous aerocapture systems studies in the literature have demonstrated both the validity and robustness of the technique at various planetary destinations. With respect to the Ice Giant planets, Neptune has seen more of the analysis in the literature. For science missions at Neptune, aerocapture can enable 1.4 times more delivered mass to orbit than an all-propulsive mission for the same launch vehicle while reducing interplanetary cruise times by more than 3 years [2] Additionally with modern guidance and control, Neptune aerocapture with blunt-body aeroshells is realizable [3][4]. There are limited papers in the literature investigating Uranus aerocapture with those available providing a preliminary feasibility assessment [5]. Consequently, the two-year funded NASA Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD)-funded project, titled Aerocapture System as an Enabling Technology for Ice Giants Missions, aims to mature the analysis and technology state of Uranus aerocapture. Trajectory Design: This paper presents the current state of the trajectory design in support of the new aerocapture project. The project design philosophy is inspired from recent Neptune aerocapture studies, which employed modern guidance and control, in the sense that blunt-body aeroshells are analyzed. An assessment of the theoretical flight path angle corridor width is conducted for a range of ballistic coefficients and lift-to-drag ratios for both Space Launch System and Falcon Heavy Launch Vehicle interplanetary trajectory solutions. The results from the corridor width assessment provide an assessment of the aerocapture design-space and qualitative metrics on trajectory design considerations. The Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2) is utilized to run Monte Carlo simulations of Uranus aerocapture three-degree-of-freedom bank angle modulated trajectories using a closed-loop numerical-predictor corrector guidance algorithm. UranusGRAM 2021 is utilized as the atmospheric model [6]. A Uranus-developed aerodatabase, originally derived from Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), is utilized to provide vehicle aerodynamics over a wide range of hypersonic flow regimes. A MSL-derived 70 deg 4.5m diameter sphere-cone aeroshell that houses the UOP payload mass is assumed. Robustness testing and performance analysis is conducted, including the assessment of entry state errors, atmosphere density variations, and aerodynamic dispersions. Post-aerocapture Delta-V and aerothermal statistics are formulated into propellant mass and TPS requirements. The results presented in the paper will demonstrate the trajectory viability of Uranus aerocapture. Preliminary Results: Preliminary trajectory design results indicates successful Uranus aerocapture with a blunt-body aeroshell housing the same payload mass as the UOP mission from an Earth-to-Uranus interplanetary trajectory arriving in less than 7 years. From this interplanetary trajectory, aerocapture provides an orbit insertion Delta-V capability of 6.9 km/s requiring less than 300 m/s for post-aerocapture correction burns (15% of wet mass allocated to propellant). To put this into perspective, the UOP study utilized an Earth-to-Uranus trajectory that arrives in 13 years and requires more than 1000 m/s for fully-propulsive orbit insertion (40% of wet mass allocated to propellant). Achieving the same 6.9 km/s Delta-V capability fully-propulsively is mass prohibitive (97% of wet mass allocated to propellant). Nevertheless, aerocapture has the potential to reduce interplanetary transit times to Uranus by half while delivering the same payload mass to orbit in a reduced propellant mass footprint.

Rohan Deshmukh↗
NASA NTRS2022

Combining Machine Learning and Numerical Simulation for High-Resolution PM2.5 Concentration Forecast

Forecasting ambient PM2.5 concentrations with spatiotemporal coverage is key to alerting decision-makers of pollution episodes and preventing detrimental public exposure, especially in regions with limited ground air monitoring stations. The existing methods either rely on chemical transport models (CTMs) to forecast spatial distribution of PM2.5 with nontrivial uncertainty or statistical algorithms to forecast PM2.5 concentration time-series at air monitoring locations without continuous spatial coverage. In this study, we developed a PM2.5 forecast framework by combining the robust Random Forest algorithm with a publicly accessible global CTM forecast product – NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System “Composition Forecasting” (GEOS-CF), providing spatiotemporally continuous PM2.5 concentration forecasts for the next five days at a 1-km spatial resolution. Our forecast experiment was conducted for a region in Central China including the populous and polluted Fenwei Plain. The forecast for the next two days had overall validation R2 of 0.76 and 0.64, respectively; the R2 was around 0.5 for the following three forecast days. Spatial cross-validation showed similar validation metrics. Our forecast model, with validation normalized mean bias close to zero, substantially reduced the large biases in GEOS-CF. The proposed framework requires minimal computational resources compared to running CTMs at urban scales, enabling near-real-time PM2.5 forecast in resource-restricted environments.

PM2.5↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating downscaled products with expected hydroclimatic co-variances

Abstract. There has been widespread adoption of downscaled products amongst practitioners and stakeholders to ascertain risk from climate hazards at the local scale (e.g., ∼ 5 km resolution). Such products must nevertheless be consistent with physical laws to be credible and of value to users. Here we evaluate statistically and dynamically downscaled products by examining local co-evolution of downscaled temperature and precipitation during convective and frontal precipitation events (two mechanisms testable with just temperature and precipitation). We find that two widely used statistical downscaling techniques (Localized Constructed Analogs version 2, LOCA2, and Seasonal Trends and Analysis of Residuals Empirical Statistical Downscaling Model, STAR-ESDM) generally preserve expected co-variances during convective precipitation events over the historical and future projected intervals as compared to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) and two observation-based data products (Livneh and nClimGrid-Daily). However, both techniques dampen future intensification of frontal precipitation that is otherwise robustly captured in global climate models (i.e., prior to downscaling) and with process-based dynamical downscaling across five different regional climate models. In the case of LOCA2, this leads to appreciable underestimation of future frontal precipitation event intensity. This study is one of the first to quantify a likely ramification of the stationarity assumption underlying statistical downscaling methods and identify a phenomenon where projections of future change diverge depending on data production method employed. Finally, our work proposes expected co-variances during convective and frontal precipitation as useful evaluation diagnostics that can be universally applied to a wide range of statistically downscaled products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1996

Identification, Uncertainty Characterization and Robust Control Synthesis Applied to Large Flexible Structures Control

This paper demonstrates an approach to frequency domain identification for the explicit purpose of designing robust H(infinity) controllers. The approach transforms raw experimental data into a plant set estimate directly usable by modern robust control design software(e.g., Matlab Robust Control Toolboxes [11][2]). A key issue in control design from raw data is the question of whether the controller will work when applied to the true system. The main feature fo this approach is that the resulting controller in guaranteed to work as designed(when applied to the true system) to a prescribed statistical confidence. While the overall methodology addresses key theoretical issues, it has at the same time been specifically designed to support practical implementations. A simulation example is included to demonstrate the overall approach.

software↗
DOE OSTI2024

Acceleration of Solvation Free Energy Calculation via Thermodynamic Integration Coupled with Gaussian Process Regression and Improved Gelman–Rubin Convergence Diagnostics

The determination of the solvation free energy of ions and molecules holds profound importance across a spectrum of applications spanning chemistry, biology, energy storage, and the environment. Molecular dynamics simulations are powerful tools for computing this critical parameter. Nevertheless, the accurate and efficient calculation of the solvation free energy becomes a formidable endeavor when dealing with complex systems characterized by potent Coulombic interactions and sluggish ion dynamics and, consequently, slow transition across various metastable states. Here, in the present study, we expose limitations stemming from the conventional calculation of the statistical inefficiency g in the thermodynamic integration method, a factor that can hinder the determination of convergence of the solvation free energy and its associated uncertainty. Instead, we propose a robust scheme based on Gelman–Rubin convergence diagnostics. We leverage this improved estimation of uncertainties to introduce an innovative accelerated thermodynamic integration method based on the Gaussian Process regression. This methodology is applied to the calculation of the solvation free energy of trivalent rare-earth elements immersed in ionic liquids, a scenario in which the aforementioned challenges render standard approaches ineffective. The proposed method proves to be effective in computing solvation free energy in situations where traditional thermodynamic integration methods fall short.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning of factors for improving oyster hatchery production

Oyster aquaculture and restoration in the Chesapeake Bay are vital, yet hatcheries frequently struggle with inconsistent larval growth and sudden mass mortality events. Unpredictable disruptions in larval production cause large economic losses, represent a perceived risk to growers, and impede industry expansion. To better understand associations between production yield and its potential predictors, we applied machine learning (random forest, and neural network) and statistical (generalized additive model) models to a comprehensive dataset of environmental, water quality, and operational parameters from a Maryland oyster hatchery, aiming to identify key yield predictors and develop a robust forecasting tool. We used recursive Boruta algorithm for variable selection, pinpointing critical predictors, and employed cross-validation to fine-tune model settings. Shapley value analysis offered crucial insights into model interpretations, highlighting week number, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, salinity, turbidity, and fecundity as primary drivers of yield variability. For low-yield cases, salinity-related variables were particularly important. Our findings provide an early warning system for potential production downturns, empowering hatchery operators to make data-driven decisions for optimizing water conditions, feeding schedules, and broodstock management. By boosting predictability and efficiency, this research directly supports economic stability of the oyster industry and ecological health of the Chesapeake Bay.

Vishwakarma, Srishti [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗
NASA NTRS2023

Marsh Archive Reveals Human Population History and Future Implications for Estuarine Health in Long Island Sound

Coastal marshes are efficient ecosystems providing a multitude of benefits for invertebrates, birds, fish and humans alike. Yet despite these benefits, wetlands are threatened by anthropogenic inputs such as human wastewater which contain high levels of nitrogen (N). Increased nitrogen loads cause eutrophication and hypoxia in estuaries leading to further degradation of these valuable ecosystems that are already stressed by sea level rise and climate change. Policies to protect wetlands via wastewater treatments are reactive rather than proactive and a growing body of research shows that characteristics associated with population health and economic activity can be identified in wastewater. Analysis of a 2-m salt marsh sediment core reveals δN15 signatures indicative of human population rise and connects human impact to ecosystem health. Using key X-ray fluorescence (XRF), pollen, sediment and nitrogen signatures along the core, a robust chronology was produced dating back to 1700. This result was coupled with population data to observe the relationship between δN15 levels and population over three centuries. There is a statistically significant positive correlation between δN15 and population. Other external factors such as federal government policies (regulating clean water) show a clear reduction in this association but the use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer masks the strength of this relationship. Further research to refine the relationship between population and δN15 could be beneficial in predicting nitrogen loads as human population grows, which in turn would create a proactive system to protect our coastal ecosystems.

Nitrogen↗
NASA NTRS2020

Robust Algorithm for Estimating Total Suspended Solids (TSS) in Inland and Nearshore Coastal Waters

One of the challenging tasks in modern aquatic remote sensing is the retrieval of near-surface concentrations of Total Suspended Solids (TSS). This study aims to present a Statistical, inherent Optical property (IOP) -based, and muLti-conditional Inversion proceDure (SOLID) for enhanced retrievals of satellite-derived TSS under a wide range of in-water bio-optical conditions in rivers, lakes, estuaries, and coastal waters. In this study, using a large in situ database (N > 3500), the SOLID model is devised using a three-step procedure: (a) water-type classification of the input remote sensing reflectance (R(sub rs)), (b) retrieval of particulate backscattering (b(sub bp)) in the red or near-infrared (NIR) regions using semi-analytical, machine-learning, and empirical models, and (c) estimation of TSS from b(sub bp) via water-type-specific empirical models. Using an independent subset of our in situ data (N = 2729) with TSS ranging from 0.1 to 2626.8 [g/m (exp 3)], the SOLID model is thoroughly examined and compared against several state-of-the-art algorithms (Miller and McKee, 2004; Nechad et al., 2010; Novoa et al., 2017; Ondrusek et al., 2012; Petus et al., 2010). We show that SOLID outperforms all the other models to varying degrees, i.e., from 10 to > 100%, depending on the statistical attributes (e.g., global versus water-type-specific metrics). For demonstration purposes, the model is implemented for images acquired by the MultiSpectral Imager aboard Sentinel-2A/B over the Chesapeake Bay, San-Francisco-Bay-Delta Estuary, Lake Okeechobee, and Lake Taihu. To enable generating consistent, multimission TSS products, its performance is further extended to, and evaluated for, other missions, such as the Ocean and Land Color Instrument (OLCI), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), and Operational Land Imager (OLI). Sensitivity analyses on uncertainties induced by the atmospheric correction indicate that 10% uncertainty in Rrs leads to < 20% uncertainty in TSS retrievals from SOLID. While this study suggests that SOLID has a potential for producing TSS products in global coastal and inland waters, our statistical analysis certainly verifies that there is still a need for improving retrievals across a wide spectrum of particle loads.

Total suspended solids↗
NASA NTRS1998

Design, Evaluation and GCM-Performance of a New Parameterization for Microphysics of Clouds with Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert Scheme (McRas)

A prognostic cloud scheme named McRAS (Microphysics of clouds with Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert Scheme) was developed with the aim of improving cloud-microphysics, and cloud-radiation interactions in GCMs. McRAS distinguishes convective, stratiform, and boundary-layer clouds. The convective clouds merge into stratiform clouds on an hourly time-scale, while the boundary-layer clouds do so instantly. The cloud condensate transforms into precipitation following the auto-conversion relations of Sundqvist that contain a parametric adaptation for the Bergeron-Findeisen process of ice crystal growth and collection of cloud condensate by precipitation. All clouds convect, advect, and diffuse both horizontally and vertically with a fully active cloud-microphysics throughout its life-cycle, while the optical properties of clouds are derived from the statistical distribution of hydrometeors and idealized cloud geometry. An evaluation of McRAS in a single column model (SCM) with the GATE Phase III data has shown that McRAS can simulate the observed temperature, humidity, and precipitation without discernible systematic errors. An evaluation with the ARM-CART SCM data in a cloud model intercomparison exercise shows reasonable but not an outstanding accurate simulation. Such a discrepancy is common to almost all models and is related, in part, to the input data quality. McRAS was implemented in the GEOS II GCM. A 50 month integration that was initialized with the ECMWF analysis of observations for January 1, 1987 and forced with the observed sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice distribution and vegetation properties (biomes, and soils), with prognostic soil moisture, snow-cover, and hydrology showed a very realistic simulation of cloud process, incloud water and ice, and cloud-radiative forcing (CRF). The simulated ITCZ showed a realistic time-mean structure and seasonal cycle, while the simulated CRF showed sensitivity to vertical distribution of cloud water which can be easily altered by the choice of time constant and incloud critical cloud water amount regulators for auto-conversion. The CRF and its feedbacks also have a profound effect on the ITCZ. Even though somewhat weaker than observed, the McRAS-GCM simulation produces robust 30-60 day oscillations in the 200 hPa velocity potential. Two ensembles of 4-summer (July, August, September) simulations, one each for 1987 and 1988 show that the McRAS-GCM simulates realistic and statistically significant precipitation differences over India, Central America, and tropical Africa. Several seasonal simulations were performed with McRAS-GEOS II GCM for the summer (June-July- August) and winter (December-January-February) periods to determine how the simulated clouds and CRFs would be affected by: i) advection of clouds; ii) cloud top entrainment instability, iii) cloud water inhomogeneity correction, and (iv) cloud production and dissipation in different cloud-processes. The results show that each of these processes contributes to the simulated cloud-fraction and CRF.

Sud, Y. C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty in the response of sudden stratospheric warmings and stratosphere- troposphere coupling to quadrupled CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 models

Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), vortex formation and final breakdown dates are key highlight points of the stratospheric polar vortex. These phenomena are relevant for stratosphere-troposphere coupling, which explains the interest in understanding their future changes. However, up to now, there is not a clear consensus on which projected changes to the polar vortex are robust, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, possibly due to short data record or relatively moderate CO2 forcing. The new simulations performed under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6, together with the long daily data requirements of the DynVarMIP project in preindustrial and quadrupled CO2 (4xCO2 ) forcing simulations provide a new opportunity to revisit this topic by overcoming the limitations mentioned above. In this study, we analyze this new model output to document the change, if any, in the frequency of SSWs under 4xCO2 forcing. Our analysis reveals a large disagreement across the models as to the sign of this change, even though most models show a statistically significant change. The models, however, are in good agreement as to the impact of SSWs over the North Atlantic: there is no indication of a change under 4xCO2 forcing. Over the Pacific, however, the change is more uncertain. Finally, the models show robust changes to the seasonal cycle in the stratosphere. Specifically, we find a longer duration of the stratospheric polar vortex, and thus a longer season of stratosphere-troposphere coupling.

sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Robust Dark Energy Constraints with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Survey (Final Technical Report)

This project developed and applied advanced theoretical, computational, and data-analysis methodologies to extract robust and precise cosmological constraints from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). The work focused on maximizing the scientific return of DESI through optimized survey strategy, novel higher-order clustering statistics, improved modeling of small-scale structure, and rigorous mitigation of observational systematics. Over the award period, the project made substantial contributions to DESI science planning, produced new methods for bispectrum and three-point correlation function analyses, advanced constraints on primordial non-Gaussianity, and delivered widely used software tools. The project also played a major role in training graduate students and a postdoctoral researcher who contributed directly to DESI key projects. The results have significantly enhanced the cosmological reach of DESI and provide a strong foundation for future surveys such as DESI-II and Stage-V experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

CMB low multipole alignments across WMAP and Planck data releases

ABSTRACT The first observations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) from NASA's Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) led to finding ‘alignment’ anomalies not expected from fluctuations in the isotropic cosmological model. We study the data of all 8 full-sky public releases since then to test for anomalous alignments and shapes of the first 60 multipoles, i.e. over the range $2\le l \le 61$. We use rotationally invariant and covariant statistics to test isotropy of all subsequent WMAP data releases, along with those from the ESA’s Planck mission. Anomalous alignments among the multipoles $l=1, 2, 3$ are very consistent and robust. More alignments are detected, some of them new, while significance is diluted by the large range of the search. Power entropy, a measure of the randomness of the multipoles, is consistently anomalous at about $2\sigma$ level or better across all data releases. It appears that the CMB is not as random as the cosmological principle predicts on large angular scales.

Patel, Sanjeet Kumar↗
DOE OSTI2025

PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative Final Technical Report (FTR)

Improved analysis and reporting of photovoltaic (PV) field performance increases the certainty of owners and financiers that systems will perform as expected. Advanced module technologies (e.g., PERC, HJT, and bifacial) introduce new degradation mechanisms and performance characteristics. This project will leverage data from the ever-increasing PV fleet to develop models and understanding of the field performance of existing and new technologies. Please see our list of public reports at https://www.nrel.gov/pv/fleet-performance-data-initiative.html. Objective 1: Support the global PV industry with scalable, robust data analysis tools that reduce the uncertainty of PV system performance and loss calculation. Objective 2: Reduce perceived risk arising from degradation rate, soiling loss, and system availability by publishing detailed statistics on U.S. fleet performance. Objective 3: Highlight factors leading to system underperformance including module type, climate, mounting configuration, etc. Objective 4: Enable continued high system performance in modern PV systems, as turnover and advances in technology bring new suppliers and high-efficiency modules into the market.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗