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DOE OSTI2022

Scaling Behavior of Thermally Driven Fractures in Deep Low‐Permeability Formations: A Plane Strain Model With 1‐D Heat Conduction

Abstract Injection of cold fluids through/into deep formations may cause significant cooling, thermal stress, and possible thermal fracturing. In this study, the thermal fracturing of low‐permeability formations under one‐dimensional heat conduction was investigated using a plane strain model. Dimensionless governing equations, with dimensionless fracture length , aperture , spacing , time , and effective confining stress , were derived. Solution of single thermal fracture was derived analytically, while solution of multiple fractures with constant (or dynamic) spacing were obtained using the displacement discontinuity method (and stability analysis). For single fracture, increases nonlinearly with and then transitions to scaling law , indicating that late‐time fracture length increases linearly with the square root of cooling time. For constantly spaced fractures, deviates from the single‐fracture solution at a later for a larger , showing slower propagation under inter‐fracture stress interaction . For dynamically spaced fractures, fracture arrest induced by stress interaction was determined by the stability analysis; the fully transient solution provides evolution of dimensionless fracture length, spacing, aperture, and pattern; a similar scaling law, with , obtained shows the effect of both stress interaction and fracture arrest. The solution and scaling law provide fast predictions for all reservoir and cooling conditions using (single) model parameter . Application to a geothermal site with demonstrates that thermal fractures reach 0.67, 6.25, and 78.00 m in length, 0.49, 2.30, and 13.00 m in spacing, and 0.43, 2.09, and 12.19 mm in aperture at 1, 100, and 10,000 days.

Chen, Bin↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hydraulically‐vulnerable trees survive on deep‐water access during droughts in a tropical forest

Summary Deep‐water access is arguably the most effective, but under‐studied, mechanism that plants employ to survive during drought. Vulnerability to embolism and hydraulic safety margins can predict mortality risk at given levels of dehydration, but deep‐water access may delay plant dehydration. Here, we tested the role of deep‐water access in enabling survival within a diverse tropical forest community in Panama using a novel data‐model approach. We inversely estimated the effective rooting depth (ERD, as the average depth of water extraction), for 29 canopy species by linking diameter growth dynamics (1990–2015) to vapor pressure deficit, water potentials in the whole‐soil column, and leaf hydraulic vulnerability curves. We validated ERD estimates against existing isotopic data of potential water‐access depths. Across species, deeper ERD was associated with higher maximum stem hydraulic conductivity, greater vulnerability to xylem embolism, narrower safety margins, and lower mortality rates during extreme droughts over 35 years (1981–2015) among evergreen species. Species exposure to water stress declined with deeper ERD indicating that trees compensate for water stress‐related mortality risk through deep‐water access. The role of deep‐water access in mitigating mortality of hydraulically‐vulnerable trees has important implications for our predictive understanding of forest dynamics under current and future climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing SWAT with mechanistic plant hydraulics: development and application in the Hanjiang River Basin

Plant transpiration plays a critical role in global water and energy cycles, requiring better process understanding as climate change intensifies drought stress and alters plant responses. Most hydrological models such as the widely-used SWAT lack representation of plant hydraulics, the mechanistic processes controlling plant water regulation and transpiration. Here, this study developed SWAT-PHS by integrating a plant hydraulics scheme (PHS) into SWAT hydrological model, enabling explicit simulation of root water uptake, sap flow, storage and transpiration at 30-minute timescales for watershed-scale modeling. In the Hanjiang River Basin, SWAT-PHS mitigated overestimation of runoff during the rainy season and underestimation during the dry season, reducing the overall simulation error by 29% across the entire simulation period. The model can simulate reasonable plant water dynamics, including diurnal transpiration patterns and drought responses showing declining transpiration flux, hydraulic buffering through stem water storage, and depth-dependent root water uptake strategies. Sensitivity analysis shows that SWAT-PHS captured mechanistic relationships between plant hydraulic traits and transpiration, with root distribution and stem capacitance positively affecting annual transpiration while vulnerability parameters showed negative effects. This work provides a pathway for improving hydrologic modeling and water resource management by better representing plant water regulation under climate change and expected intensifying water stress conditions.

China↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Global Carbon Costs of Plant Nitrogen and Phosphorus Acquisition

Abstract Most Earth system models (ESMs) do not explicitly represent the carbon (C) costs of plant nutrient acquisition, which leads to uncertainty in predictions of the current and future constraints to the land C sink. We integrate a plant productivity‐optimizing nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) acquisition model (fixation & uptake of nutrients, FUN) into the energy exascale Earth system (E3SM) land model (ELM). Global plant N and P uptake are dynamically simulated by ELM‐FUN based on the C costs of nutrient acquisition from mycorrhizae, direct root uptake, retranslocation from senescing leaves, and biological N fixation. We benchmarked ELM‐FUN with three classes of products: ILAMB, a remotely sensed nutrient limitation product, and CMIP6 models; we found significant improvements in C cycle variables, although the lack of more observed nutrient data prevents a comprehensive level of benchmarking. Overall, we found N and P co‐limitation for 80% of land area, with the remaining 20% being either predominantly N or P limited. Globally, the new model predicts that plants invested 4.1 Pg C yr −1 to acquire 841.8 Tg N yr −1 and 48.1 Tg P yr −1 (1994–2005), leading to significant downregulation of global net primary production (NPP). Global NPP is reduced by 20% with C costs of N and 50% with C costs of NP. Modeled and observed nutrient limitation agreement increases when N and P are considered together ( r 2 from 0.73 to 0.83).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic P-Q Capability and Abnormal Operation Analysis of a Wind Turbine with Doubly-Fed Induction Generator

After several accidents occurred in wind farms in the United States and around the world, the subsynchronous oscillation (SSO) issues in grid-connected wind farms have gained serious attention. Particularly, these issues have caused significant challenges to wind turbines with a doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) because it is connected to the grid via both its stator and rotor paths. Traditionally, a P-Q capability chart is utilized to assure the safe operation boundary for a synchronous generator. But the energy conversion characteristics of a DFIG wind turbine are completely different. A critical factor to affect the reliable operation of a DFIG wind turbine is the rated current and pulse-width modulation (PWM) saturation constraints of its power converters. These constraint conditions can be affected by the wind turbine rotating speed and grid conditions. However, a detailed study of DFIG P-Q capability from these perspectives has not been conducted, which has hindered adequate understanding of many abnormal wind turbine operations reported in the literature and the development of advanced control technologies to overcome the challenges. The proposed study in this paper considers vector control implementation to DFIG power electronic converters in the dq reference frame, and the models and algorithms developed for the P-Q capability study have addressed specific DFIG power converter constraints that are different from those of a traditional synchronous generator. The paper especially focuses on exploring the dynamic natures of DFIG P-Q capability under uncertain and variable conditions to explore the root causes of many abnormal operations of DFIG wind turbines reported in the literature. The proposed study is validated through an electromagnetic transient simulation model of a grid-connected DFIG wind turbine. The proposed study has the potential to lead to the development of new DFIG control technologies that can help overcome the challenges for many abnormal operations of DFIG wind turbines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Testing mechanisms of how mycorrhizal associations affect forest soil carbon and nitrogen cycling (Final Technical Report)

Trees are in a symbiotic partnership with mycorrhizal fungi in which they provide the fungi with carbon from photosynthesis and the fungi provide the trees with nutrients and water. In temperate forests, the vast majority of trees form symbioses with one of two types of mycorrhizal fungi—arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi or ectomycorrhizal (EcM) fungi. These fungi differ in their morphology, hyphal length, and nutrient acquisition strategies. Many studies have found systematic differences in soil organic matter and nitrogen availability between forest stands dominated by AM-associating trees versus EcM-associating trees. For instance, there is a larger proportion of organic matter that is mineral-associated, more available nitrogen, and lower soil carbon to nitrogen ratios in AM forest stands relative to EcM forests stands. However, the mechanisms driving these patterns are not known, which complicates our ability to model soil organic matter dynamics in forested ecosystems. The main objective of this research was to understand the degree to which the observed differences in soil C and N dynamics between AM and EcM dominated forests are driven by tree traits like litter decomposability and root exudation versus mycorrhizal fungal nutrient acquisition strategies. We investigated these mechanisms using observations and targeted experiments and incorporated this knowledge into a process-based soil organic matter model. The observational studies compared the importance of leaf litter decomposability versus fungal identity on soil organic matter processes. We found that often fungal identity and traits were more important drivers of soil organic matter patterns than leaf litter decomposability. We ran two novel experiments: 1) a growth chamber experiment across four EcM and four AM tree species using a 13 C-labeled atmosphere to trace seedling-derived C into hyphae, the rhizosphere, and soil; and 2) an in situ decomposition experiment of six different 13 C and 15 N labeled litters that ranged in decomposability incubated across a gradient of EcM dominance at three sites that capture important variation in climate, soils, and forest species composition. In the first experiment, we found no significant differences of seedling mycorrhizal association on soil carbon sequestration over a growing season, but we did find that mycorrhizal association affected rhizodeposition with EcM-associating seedlings depositing more carbon in response to increased nitrogen availability. The decomposition experiment is still ongoing, but thus far, we have found slower litter decomposition in only one of three EcM-dominated forests which suggests that differences between AM- and EcM-dominated forests depend on the environmental context and identity of the EcM fungi. Lastly, we explicitly incorporated mycorrhizal processes into the Carbon, Organisms, Rhizosphere, and Protection in the Soil Environment (CORPSE) model creating Myco-CORPSE. By including the different nutrient acquisition strategies of AM and EcM fungi, we explored the conditions under which EcM fungi can slow decomposition rates and lead to greater soil organic carbon accumulation compared to AM fungi. We found that the effect of EcM fungi was highly context dependent and that EcM fungi decreased decomposition in colder forests with recalcitrant litter inputs and when they produced oxidases and necromass-degrading enzymes. Our research highlights the importance of fungal nutrient acquisition in driving soil organic matter patterns and the need to move beyond the AM-EcM dichotomy to consider the identity and traits of the specific fungi participating in the symbiosis. Overall, this research has resulted in six, peer-reviewed published papers in journals such as Global Change Biology, Ecology (2), Soil Biology and Biochemistry, and Ecosystems (2). There are at least two more papers in progress on this research including one that was recently submitted to Global Change Biology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1980

Flexible body stability analysis of Space Shuttle ascent flight control system by using lambda matrix solution techniques

A lambda matrix solution technique is being developed to perform an open loop frequency analysis of a high order dynamic system. The procedure evaluates the right and left latent vectors corresponding to the respective latent roots. The latent vectors are used to evaluate the partial fraction expansion formulation required to compute the flexible body open loop feedback gains for the Space Shuttle Digital Ascent Flight Control System. The algorithm is in the final stages of development and will be used to insure that the feedback gains meet the design specification.

Bown, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Analysis and testing of a space crane articulating joint testbed

The topics are presented in viewgraph form and include: space crane concept with mobile base; mechanical versus structural articulating joint; articulating joint test bed and reference truss; static and dynamic characterization completed for space crane reference truss configuration; improved linear actuators reduce articulating joint test bed backlash; 1-DOF space crane slew maneuver; boom 2 tip transient response finite element dynamic model; boom 2 tip transient response shear-corrected component modes torque driver profile; peak root member force vs. slew time torque driver profile; and open loop control of space crane motion.

Thomas R Sutter↗

NASA NTRS1986

An experimental investigation of the structural dynamics of a torsionally soft rotor in vacuum

An extensive data base of structural dynamic characteristics has been generated from an experimental program conducted on a torsionally soft two-bladed model helicopter rotor system. Measurements of vibratory strains for five modes of vibration were made at twenty-one locations on the two blades at speeds varying from 0 to 1000 RPM and for several combinations of precone, droop and flexure stiffness. Tests were conducted in vacuum under carefully controlled conditions using a unique excitation device with a system of piezoelectric crystals bonded to the blade surface near the root. Frequencies, strain mode shapes and dampings are extracted from the time histories and can be used to validate structural dynamics codes. The dynamics of the system are such that there is a clear tendency for the first torsion and second flap modes to couple within the speed range considered. Strain mode shapes vary significantly with speed and configuration. This feature is important in the calcualtion of aeroelastic instabilities. The tension axis tests confirmed that the modulus-weighted centroid for the nonhomogeneous airfoil is slightly off the mass centroid and validated previous static tests done to determine location of the tension axis.

Srinivasan, A. V.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Computational Investigation and Validation of Twin-Tail Buffet Response Including Dynamics and Control

Multidisciplinary tools for prediction of single rectangular-tail buffet are extended to single swept-back-tail buffet in transonic-speed flow, and multidisciplinary tools for prediction and control of twin-tail buffet are developed and presented. The configuration model consists of a sharp-edged delta wing with single or twin tails that are oriented normal to the wing surface. The tails are treated as cantilevered beams fixed at the root and allowed to oscillate in both bending and torsion. This complex multidisciplinary problem is solved sequentially using three sets of equations on a dynamic single or multi-block grid structure. The first set is the unsteady, compressible, Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations which are used for obtaining the flow field vector and the aerodynamic loads on the tails. The Navier-Stokes equations are solved accurately in time using the implicit, upwind, flux-difference splitting, finite volume scheme. The second set is the coupled bending and torsion aeroelastic equations of cantilevered beams which are used for obtaining the bending and torsion deflections of the tails. The aeroelastic equations'are solved accurately in time using, a fifth-order-accurate Runge-Kutta scheme. The third set is the grid-displacement equations and the rigid-body dynamics equations, which are used for updating the grid coordinates due to the tail deflections and rigid-body motions. The tail-buffet phenomenon is predicted for highly-swept, single vertical tail placed at the plane of geometric symmetry, and for highly-swept, vertical twin tails placed at three different spanwise separation distances. The investigation demonstrates the effects of structural inertial coupling and uncoupling of the bending and torsion modes of vibration, spanwise positions of the twin-tail, angle of attack, and pitching and rolling dynamic motions of the configuration model on the tail buffet loading and response. The fundamental issue of twin-tail buffet alleviation is addressed using two active flow-control methods. These methods are the tangential leading-edge blowing and the flow suction from the leading-edge vortex cores along their paths. Qualitative and quantitative comparisons with the available experimental data are presented. The comparisons indicate that the present multidisciplinary aeroelastic analysis tools are robust, accurate and efficient.

Kandil, Osama A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Consequences and benefits of utilizing continuous vibro-impact representations in constrained pipeline conveying fluid systems

Here, the effectiveness of continuous vibro-impact forcing representations for the cantilevered pipe that conveys fluid is explored and analyzed. The previously accepted forcing model utilizing a smoothened trilinear spring is estimated using three continuous forcing representations, namely, polynomial, rational polynomial, and hyperbolic tangent. The accuracy of the estimated forcing functions is investigated and analyzed by calculating the root mean square error, and bifurcation diagrams are generated and compared to the nominal system. Additionally, the dynamic response of the system is further characterized using Poincare maps, power spectra, and basins of attraction. Once all continuous forcing representations are analyzed and compared to the nominal system, the computational cost of each method is examined, and further limitations of the hyperbolic tangent method are discovered. It is proved that the hyperbolic tangent forcing representation most accurately captures the dynamic response of the pipeline, and the least accurate representation is the rational polynomial representation. Additionally, considerable computational cost is saved when employing the hyperbolic tangent representation compared to the discontinuous representation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Winter precipitation changes in California under global warming: Contributions of CO2, uniform SST warming, and SST change patterns

Climate models project a wetting winter over California, distinct from the drying in all other Mediterranean climate regions under warming. Dynamic effect via an eastward extension of the westerly jet stream over the North Pacific is the root cause for the wetting California. Utilizing four sets of prescribed-SST (sea surface temperature) simulations, the relative effects of direct CO2 radiative forcing, uniform SST warming, and SST change pattern are investigated. The wetting winter is dominated by uniform SST warming mainly through its effect on the jet extension. As a fundamental response to the enhanced upper-tropospheric warming in the tropics, the jet extension in coupled simulations is well reproduced under uniform SST warming and robust among models. An El Niño-like SST warming pattern has a secondary contribution to the jet extension via atmospheric teleconnection, but with large inter-model spread. Relative to the SST forcing, the direct CO2 radiative effect is negligible.

Dong, Lu↗

DOE OSTI2023

Performance assessment of a real water source heat pump within a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing environment

Over the last decade, the global fight against climate change through electrification has led to an increase in research on building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems that utilize intelligent control algorithms to provide demand-side grid service while also maintaining the thermal comfort of building occupants. As the pivotal point between building electricity consumption and indoor thermal comfort, high-efficiency electrical vapor-compression heat pumps are at the center of these emerging studies, and various grid-interactive and occupant-comfort control algorithms have been developed for them. The impact of these algorithms on heat pump operation and performance when subjected to different weather conditions, building loads, and grid requests calls for investigation and verification via experimental testing with actual heat pumps integrated with real-time building and grid responses. This study introduces a Water-Source Heat Pump (WSHP) Hardware-in-The-Loop (HIL) Test Facility that is the first of its kind. This testbed utilizes a 2-ton variable speed water-to-air heat pump that is capable of interacting with a virtual environment currently comprised of an EnergyPlus (E+) building simulation, an agent-based occupant behavioral model, and a single U-tube ground-loop heat exchanger (GLHE) model. Detailed descriptions of the testbed’s physical design and operation, virtual environment, as well as their mutual communication is provided. An uncertainty analysis is also performed under manufacturer specified heating and cooling design conditions. This analysis shows that the total load across the WSHP’s demand side heat exchanger, i.e., the sum of its latent and sensible components, can be measured with a relative uncertainty of ± 10.4% and ± 3.6% in cooling and heating mode respectively. The WSHP’s coefficient of performance (COP) can be measured with relative uncertainties of ± 10.4% in cooling mode, and ± 3.7% in heating mode. A preliminary 24-h experimental demonstration is then performed utilizing the DOE prototype small commercial office building model in E+. The simulation takes place in Atlanta, GA on the date of 08/26/15 from 12:00 AM to 11:59 PM using TMY3 weather data. Here, the results from this demonstration show that over the course of this experiment the simulated outputs of zone dry-bulb temperature, zone humidity ratio, and WSHP inlet water temperature can be tracked by testbed emulators up to a root mean squared error (RMSE) of ± 0.27 °C, ± 0.376 g/kg, and ± 0.85 °C respectively. The WSHP’s dynamic behavioral characteristics and performance are also captured, and correspond well with the authors’ previous understanding of heat pump efficiency as a function of evaporator and condenser fluid inlet conditions respectively.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mixing in Low Reynolds Number Reacting Impinging Jets in Crossflow

Previous efforts to model uranyl fluoride formation in an impinging jet gas reactor underpredicted spatial mixing and overpredicted chemical conversion into particulates. The previous fluid dynamics model was based on the solution of the Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes equations. After simulating fluid dynamics, aerosol dynamics were superimposed onto CFD-simulated gas reactant species concentrations. The current work explores the influence of complex unsteady flow features on the overall flow physics and chemistry for a low Reynolds number, opposed flow, impinging jet gas reactor where there is a low Reynolds number cross flow. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of model formulation on scalar mixing and transport. Here, transient flow simulations were performed using Scale Resolving Simulations. Large-Eddy Simulations with the dynamic Smagorinsky turbulence model were performed along with simulations which directly resolved the flow. Average and root-mean-square (RMS) velocities and species concentrations were computed along with modeled and resolved turbulence kinetic energy (TKE), modeled turbulence dissipation, and modeled turbulent viscosity. Lagrangian flow tracers were also used to quantify species concentrations along path lines emanating from the jet tips. Transient simulation data were compared to results from RANS simulations using the k-ω shear stress transport (SST) model and Reynolds Stress Model (RSM). Transient simulations showed spatial mixing patterns which were more consistent with experimental data and helped elucidate the process of particle formation observed in experiments.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1972

Response of convectively controlled burning to nonlinear disturbances.

A process where energy release rate is proportional to the square root of the Reynolds number of a burning particle or surface is used to demonstrate some distinctive dynamic properties of a disturbed convectively controlled burning process. The instantaneous energy release rates caused by assumed periodic flow field disturbances are numerically evaluated and examined. Correlation coefficients which express the energy released in-phase with the pressure disturbance are evaluated and analytical solutions for these coefficients are derived. The response of the process is shown to be highly sensitive to the harmonic distortion of the disturbance. For some disturbances the energy released in-phase with the pressure disturbance is an order of magnitude larger than that for linear (sinusoidal) disturbances. The results show that harmonic distortion increases the coupling between the burning process and the flow field. This amplifying effect of harmonic distortion is suppressed when a disturbance becomes steep-fronted; therefore, steepening can act to limit the equilibrium amplitudes in disturbed systems. Amplification is also suppressed when the velocity disturbance is phase shifted with respect to the pressure disturbance or when the process is exposed to a high steady velocity.

Heidmann, M. F.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Impact of resistance exercise during bed rest on skeletal muscle sarcopenia and myosin isoform distribution

Because resistance exercise (REx) and bed-rest unloading (BRU) are associated with opposing adaptations, our purpose was to test the efficacy of REx against the effects of 14 days of BRU on the knee-extensor muscle group. Sixteen healthy men were randomly assigned to no exercise (NoEx; n = 8) or REx (n = 8). REx performed five sets of leg press exercise with 80-85% of one repetition maximum (1 RM) every other day during BRU. Muscle samples were removed from the vastus lateralis muscle by percutaneous needle biopsy. Myofiber distribution was determined immunohistochemically with three monoclonal antibodies against myosin heavy chain (MHC) isoforms (I, IIa, IIx). MHC distribution was further assessed by quantitative gel electrophoresis. Dynamic 1-RM leg press and unilateral maximum voluntary isometric contraction (MVC) were determined. Maximal neural activation (root mean squared electromyogram) and rate of torque development (RTD) were measured during MVC. Reductions (P < 0.05) in type I (15%) and type II (17%) myofiber cross-sectional areas were found in NoEx but not in REx. Electrophoresis revealed no changes in MHC isoform distribution. The percentage of type IIx myofibers decreased (P < 0.05) in REx from 9 to 2% and did not change in NoEx. 1 RM was reduced (P < 0.05) by 9% in NoEx but was unchanged in REx. MVC fell by 15 and 13% in NoEx and REx, respectively. The agonist-to-antagonist root mean squared electromyogram ratio decreased (P < 0.05) 19% in REx. RTD slowed (P < 0.05) by 54% in NoEx only. Results indicate that REx prevented BRU-induced myofiber atrophy and also maintained training-specific strength. Unlike spaceflight, BRU did not induce shifts in myosin phenotype. The reported benefits of REx may prove useful in prescribing exercise for astronauts in microgravity.

NASA Discipline Musculoskeletal↗

NASA NTRS2011

Evaluation of the Event Driven Phenology Model Coupled with the VegET Evapotranspiration Model Through Comparisons with Reference Datasets in a Spatially Explicit Manner

A new model coupling scheme with remote sensing data assimilation was developed for estimation of daily actual evapotranspiration (ET). The scheme represents a mix of the VegET, a physically based model to estimate ET from a water balance, and an event driven phenology model (EDPM), where the EDPM is an empirically derived crop specific model capable of producing seasonal trajectories of canopy attributes. In this experiment, the scheme was deployed in a spatially explicit manner within the croplands of the Northern Great Plains. The evaluation was carried out using 2007-2009 land surface forcing data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and crop maps derived from remotely sensed data of NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We compared the canopy parameters produced by the phenology model with normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data derived from the MODIS nadir bi-directional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) adjusted reflectance (NBAR) product. The expectations of the EDPM performance in prognostic mode were met, producing determination coefficient (r2) of 0.8 +/-.0.15. Model estimates of NDVI yielded root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.1 +/-.0.035 for the entire study area. Retrospective correction of canopy dynamics with MODIS NDVI brought the errors down to just below 10% of observed data range. The ET estimates produced by the coupled scheme were compared with ones from the MODIS land product suite. The expected r2=0.7 +/-.15 and RMSE = 11.2 +/-.4 mm per 8 days were met and even exceeded by the coupling scheme0 functioning in both prognostic and retrospective modes. Minor setbacks of the EDPM and VegET performance (r2 about 0.5 and additional 30 % of RMSR) were found on the peripheries of the study area and attributed to the insufficient EDPM training and to spatially varying accuracy of crop maps. Overall the experiment provided sufficient evidence of soundness and robustness of the EDPM and VegET coupling scheme, assuring its potential for spatially explicit applications.

Kovalskyy, V.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Initial Trans-Membrane Pressure for Optimized Operations in UF Unit Using Random Forest

With the growing scarcity of freshwater, innovative process design mechanisms like Reverse Osmosis (RO) are increasingly gaining attention among water treatment utilities to address the rising demand. Ensuring reliable water production necessitates efficient resource utilization, minimizing downtime in (ultra-filtration) UF systems. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) have enabled the development of accurate data-driven models for Model Predictive Control (MPC), often requiring minimal prior knowledge of underlying physical processes. In this study, we present predictive regression models based on Random Forest (RF) and Auto-Regressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial Trans-Membrane Pressure (TMP) for each filtration cycle in data generated by Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) systems. The proposed RF-based model demonstrates superior performance compared to baseline methods, including historical mean, Last Observation Carried Forward (LOCF), and naïve AR models, across various forecasting horizons in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) metric. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent covariates across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is studied for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches across increasing forecast horizons. Accurate prediction of initial TMP is critical for optimizing RO operations, as it enables the development of robust modelling frameworks by accurately estimating membrane fouling trends, thereby enhancing process efficiency and long-term reliability. The demonstrated efficacy of the RF-based approach highlights its potential as a tool for real-time decision-making in water treatment systems, paving the way for advanced process optimization and sustainable water resource management.

Mukherjee, Subrata [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000309930338)↗