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At least 307 records · Page 17

The annual cycle in equatorial convection and sea surface temperature

The coupled atmosphere-ocean system in the equatorial eastern Pacific and Atlantic exhibits a distinct annual cycle that is reflected in contrasting conditions at the times of the two equinoxes. The contrasts are so strong that they dominate the annual march of zonally averaged outgoing long wave radiation for the equatorial belt. The March equinox corresponds to the warm season when the equatorial cold tongues in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic area absent. With the onset of summer monsoon convection over Colombia, Central America, and West Africa in May-June, northward surface winds strengthen over the eastern Pacific and Atlantic, the equatorial cold tongues reappear, and the marine convection shifts from the equatorial belt to the intertropical convergence zones (ITCZs) along 8 deg N. On the basis of observational evidence concerning the timing and year-to-year regularity of the surface wind changes during the development of the cold tongues, it is argued that (1) the increase in the northward surface winds in response to the onset of the northern summer monsoon may be instrumental in reestablishing the cold tongues, and (2) positive feedbacks involving both the zonal and meridional wind components contribute to the remarkable robustness of the cold tongue-ITCZs complexes in both oceans.

Mitchell, Todd P.↗

Observations of seasonal variations in atmospheric greenhouse trapping and its enhancement at high sea surface temperature

Greenhouse trapping is examined theoretically using a version of the radiative transfer equations that demonstrates how atmospheric greenhouse trapping can vary. Satellite observations of atmospheric greenhouse trapping are examined for four months representing the various seasons. The cause of the super greenhouse effect at the highest SSTs is examined, and four processes are found to contribute. The middle and upper troposphere must be particularly moist and the temperature lapse rate must be increasingly unstable over the warmest regions to explain the observed distribution of atmospheric greenhouse trapping. Since the highest SSTs are generally associated with deep convection, this suggests that deep convection acts to moisten the middle and upper troposphere in regions of the highest SSTs relative to other regions. The tropical atmospheric circulation acts to both increase the temperature lapse rate and greatly increase the atmospheric water vapor concentration with spatially increasing SST.

Hallberg, Robert↗

Long range forecasts of the Northern Hemisphere anomalies with antecedent sea surface temperature patterns

The contract research has been conducted in the following three major areas: analysis of numerical simulations and parallel observations of atmospheric blocking, diagnosis of the lower boundary heating and the response of the atmospheric circulation, and comprehensive assessment of long-range forecasting with numerical and regression methods. The essential scientific and developmental purpose of this contract research is to extend our capability of numerical weather forecasting by the comprehensive general circulation model. The systematic work as listed above is thus geared to developing a technological basis for future NASA long-range forecasting.

Kung, Ernest C.↗

Modeling tropical Pacific sea surface temperature with satellite-derived solar radiative forcing

Two independent datasets for the solar radiation at the surface derived from satellites are compared. The data derived from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) is for the net solar radiation at the surface whereas the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data is for the downward flux only and was corrected with a space- and time-varying albedo. The ISCCP net flux is at all times higher than the ERBE flux. The difference can be divided into an offset that decreases with latitude and another component that correlates with high tropical cloud cover. With this latter exception the two datasets provide spatial patterns of solar flux that are very similar. A tropical Pacific Ocean model is forced with these two datasets and observed climatological winds. The upward heat flux is parameterized taking into account separately the longwave radiative, latent, and sensible heat fluxes. Best fit values for the uncertain parameters are found using an optimization procedure that seeks to minimize the difference between model and observed SST by varying the parameters within a reasonable range of uncertainty. The SST field the model produces with the best fit parameters is the best the model can do. If the differences between the model and data are larger than can be accounted for by remaining uncertainties in the heat flux parameterization and forcing data then the ocean model must be held to be at fault. Using this method of analysis, a fundamental model fault is identified. Inadequate treatment of mixed layer/entrainment processes in upwelling regions of the eastern tropical Pacific leads to a large and seasonally varying error in the model SST. Elsewhere the model SST is insufficiently different from observed to be able to identify model errors.

Seager, Richard↗

Analysis of Long-Term Cloud Cover, Radiative Fluxes, and Sea Surface Temperature in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

Grant activities accomplished during this reporting period are summarized. The contributions of the principle investigator are reported under four categories: (1) AHVRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) data; (2) GOES (Geostationary Operational Environ Satellite) data; (3) system software design; and (4) ATSR (Along Track Scanning Radiometer) data. The contributions of the associate investigator are reported for:(1) longwave irradiance at the surface; (2) methods to derive surface short-wave irradiance; and (3) estimating PAR (photo-synthetically active radiation) surface. Several papers have resulted. Abstracts for each paper are provided.

Simpson, J. J.↗

Response of Tropical Clouds to the Interannual Variation of Sea Surface Temperature

Connections between the large-scale interannual variations of clouds, deep convection, atmospheric winds. vertical thermodynamic structure, and SSTs over global tropical oceans are examined over the period July 1983 - December 1990. The SST warming associated with El Nino had a significant impact on the global tropical cloud field, although the warming itself was confined to the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. Extensive variations of the total cloud field occurred in the northeastern Indian, western and central Pacific, and western Atlantic Oceans. The changes of high and middle clouds dominated the total cloud variation in these regions. Total cloud variation was relatively weak in the eastern Pacific and the Atlantic because of the cancellation between the changes of high and low clouds. The variation of low clouds dominated the total cloud change in those areas. The destabilization of the lapse rate between 900 and 750 mb was more important for enhancing convective instability than was the change of local SSTs in the equatorial central Pacific during the 1997 El Nino. This destabilization is associated with anomalous rising motion in that region. As a result. convection and high and middle clouds increased in the equatorial central Pacific, In the subtropical Pacific, both the change of lapse rate between 900 and 750 mb associated A,ith anomalous subsidence and the decrease of boundary-layer buoyancy due to a decrease of temperature and moisture played an important role in enhancing convective stability. Consequently, convection, as well its high and middle clouds, decreased in these areas. The change ot'low clouds in the equatorial and southeastern Atlantic was correlated to both local SSTs and the SST changes in the equatorial eastern Pacific. In this area. the increase of low clouds was consistent with the sharper inversion during the 1987 El Nino, The strengthening of the inversion was not caused by a local SST change. although the local SST change appeared to he correlated to the change of low clouds. The coherence between clouds and SST tendency shows that SST tendency leads cloud variation in the equatorial Pacific. Thus, the change of clouds does not dominate the sign of SST tendency even though the cloud change was maximum during the 1987 El Nino. In some ideas of the Indian, subtropical Pacific, and North Atlantic Oceans, cloud change leads SST tendency. Cloud change might affect SST tendency in these regions.

Fu, Rong↗

Multi-Scale Response of Global Sea Surface Temperature to Solar Activity

The variation in the sun output between the maximum and minimum activity over a 11-yr solar cycle is only about 0.1% of the average. Some people believe that even such a small variability in the sun's output is enough to cause our climate change. However, some others have thrown doubts upon such a relationship. Some of the arguments related to this controversial issue can be found in an earlier report by National Research Council (1982). There is a new wave of study about possible solar-climate relationship in the past decade, and the controversial discussion continues. One group still believes in the importance of the sun's role in climate change, while another still discount it with different degrees.

Weng, Hengyi↗

Seasonal to Decadal-Scale Variability in Satellite Ocean Color and Sea Surface Temperature for the California Current System

Support for this project was used to develop satellite ocean color and temperature indices (SOCTI) for the California Current System (CCS) using the historic record of CZCS West Coast Time Series (WCTS), OCTS, WiFS and AVHRR SST. The ocean color satellite data have been evaluated in relation to CalCOFI data sets for chlorophyll (CZCS) and ocean spectral reflectance and chlorophyll OCTS and SeaWiFS. New algorithms for the three missions have been implemented based on in-water algorithm data sets, or in the case of CZCS, by comparing retrieved pigments with ship-based observations. New algorithms for absorption coefficients, diffuse attenuation coefficients and primary production have also been evaluated. Satellite retrievals are being evaluated based on our large data set of pigments and optics from CalCOFI.

Mitchell, B. Greg↗

Single and Double ITCZ in Aqua-Planet Models with Globally and Temporally Uniform Sea Surface Temperature and Solar Insolation: An Interpretation

Previous studies (Chao 2000, Chao and Chen 2001, Kirtman and Schneider 2000, Sumi 1992) have shown that, by means of one of several model design changes, the structure of the ITCZ in an aqua-planet model with globally uniform SST and solar angle (U-SST-SA) can change between a single ITCZ at the equator and a double ITCZ straddling the equator. These model design changes include switching to a different cumulus parameterization scheme (e.g., from relaxed Arakawa Schubert scheme (RAS) to moist convective adjustment scheme (MCA)), changes within the cumulus parameterization scheme, and changes in other aspects of the model, such as horizontal resolution. Sometimes only one component of the double ITCZ shows up; but still this is an ITCZ away from the equator, quite distinct from a single ITCZ over the equator. Since these model results were obtained by different investigators using different models which have yielded reasonable general circulation, they are considered as reliable. Chao and Chen (2001; hereafter CC01) have made an initial attempt to interpret these findings based on the concept of rotational ITCZ attractors that they introduced. The purpose of this paper is to offer a more complete interpretation.

Chao, Winston C.↗

Rainfall Across the Globe: Precipitation. The Role of Landmass in Monsoon Development. The Relationship Between Precipitation and Sea Surface Temperature on Decadal Time Scales

The numerical simulation of precipitation helps scientists understand the complex mechanisms that determine how and why rainfall is distributed across the globe. Simulation aids in the development of forecastin,g efforts that inform policies regarding the management of water resources. Precipitation modeling also provides short-term warnings, for emergencies such as flash floods and mudslides. Just as precipitation modeling can warn of an impending abundance of rainfall, it can help anticipate the absence of rainfall in drought. What constitutes a drought? A meteorological drought simply means that an area is getting a significantly lower amount of rain than usual over a prolonged period of time and an agricultural drought is based on the level of soil moisture.

Chao, Winston↗