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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Cascadia Burning: The historic, but not historically unprecedented, 2020 wildfires in the Pacific Northwest, USA

Abstract Wildfires devastated communities in Oregon and Washington in September 2020, burning almost as much forest west of the Cascade Mountain crest (“the westside”) in 2 weeks (~340,000 ha) as in the previous five decades (~406,00 ha). Unlike dry forests of the interior western United States, temperate rain forests of the Pacific Northwest have experienced limited recent fire activity, and debates surrounding what drove the 2020 fires, and management strategies to adapt to similar future events, necessitate a scientific evaluation of the fires. We evaluate five questions regarding the 2020 Labor Day fires: (1) How do the 2020 fires compare with historical fires? (2) How did the roles of weather and antecedent climate differ geographically and from the recent past (1979–2019)? (3) How do fire size and severity compare to other recent fires (1985–2019), and how did forest management and prefire forest structure influence burn severity? (4) What impact will these fires have on westside landscapes? and (5) How can we adapt to similar fires in the future? Although 5 of the 2020 fires were much larger than any others in the recent past and burned ~10 times the area in high‐severity patches >10,000 ha, the 2020 fires were remarkably consistent with historical fires. Reports from the early 1900s, along with paleo‐ and dendro‐ecological records, indicate similar and potentially even larger wildfires over the past millennium, many of which shared similar seasonality (late August/early September), weather conditions, and even geographic locations. Consistent with the largest historical fires, strong east winds and anomalously dry conditions drove the rapid spread of high‐severity wildfire in 2020. We found minimal difference in burn severity among stand structural types related to previous management in the 2020 fires. Adaptation strategies for similar fires in the future could benefit by focusing on ignition prevention, fire suppression, and community preparedness, as opposed to fuel treatments that are unlikely to mitigate fire severity during extreme weather. While scientific uncertainties remain regarding the nature of infrequent, high‐severity fires in westside forests, particularly under climate change, adapting to their future occurrence will require different strategies than those in interior, dry forests.

Reilly, Matthew J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrated Transcriptomic and Proteomic Analysis Identifies Plasma Biomarkers of Hepatocellular Failure in Alcohol-Associated Hepatitis

Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) is a form of liver failure with high short-term mortality. Recent results have shown that HNF4a defective function and systemic inflammation are major disease drivers of AH. Plasma biomarkers of hepatocyte function could be useful for diagnostic and prognostic purposes. Herein an integrative analysis of hepatic RNAseq and liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) was performed to identify plasma protein signatures for mild and severe AH patients. Alcohol-related liver disease cirrhosis (ALD)(AC), non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NALFD), and healthy subjects (HC) were used as comparator groups. Identified proteins primarily involved in hepatocellular function were decreased in AH patients which included hepatokines, clotting factors, complement cascade components, and hepatocyte growth activators. A protein signature of AH disease severity was identified including thrombin (THRB), hepatocyte growth factor alpha (HGFA), clusterin (CLUS), human serum factor H-related protein (FHR1) and kallistatin (KAIN), which exhibited large abundance shifts between severe and non-severe AH. The combination of THRB and HGFA discriminated between severe and non-severe AH with high sensitivity and specificity. These findings were correlated with the liver expression of genes encoding secreted proteins in a similar cohort, finding a highly consistent plasma protein signature reflecting HNF4A and HNF1A functions. This unbiased proteomic-transcriptome analysis identified plasma protein signatures and pathways associated with disease severity, reflecting HNF4A/1A activity useful for diagnostic assessment in AH.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Drivers and ecological impacts of a wildfire outbreak in the southern Appalachian Mountains after decades of fire exclusion

During one of the warmest and driest droughts of the last century, the southern Appalachian Mountains experienced a regional outbreak of over a dozen large wildfires in late fall of 2016. We provide a synthesis of long-term forest changes leading up to the 2016 wildfires, examine the climatic setting and patterns of burn severity in relationship to topography, and discuss the ecological and management implications of these and future fires. During the pre- and post-European settlement periods, frequent low- and mixed-severity wildfires interacted with complex topographic gradients and maintained heterogenous landscapes dominated by several species of oak (Quercus spp.), pine (Pinus spp.), and the American chestnut (Castanea dentata). Land-use changes associated with European settlement, loss of the American chestnut, and 20th century fire exclusion resulted in large scale shifts towards mesic, fire-intolerant species (i.e. mesophication). Wildfire activity began increasing in the early 1980s, but most fires in the region are small (<1,000 ha). In Fall of 2016, deciduous tree leaf fall occurred concurrently with a period of anomalously dry and warm weather, creating ideal conditions for fire ignition and spread. Thousands of ignitions across the region strained suppression resources and eight fires grew to greater than 5,000 ha. The 2016 fires were larger and burned more area than in the previous three decades combined. In one unique landscape setting, the Chimney Tops 2 Fire, a synoptic wind event drove extreme fire behavior and burned large, high-severity patches resulting in devastating effects in the wildland urban interface. However, immediate post-fire burn severity mosaics for other fires were composed primarily of low- (73 %) and moderate-severity (21 %) fire effects. High-severity fire comprised only 6 % of the area burned, and occurred mostly on steep upper slopes and ridges on south-facing aspects, reflecting the importance of bottom-up topographic drivers in this region. Although the fires will likely enhance biodiversity by restoring fire-dependent species and creating early seral habitat, invasions of non-native plant species, delayed mortality of mature pines and oaks, and rapid re-sprouting of pyrophyllic shrubs pose significant management challenges. Although similar large fire outbreaks may become more common under future climatic conditions, they are unlikely to reverse the effects of mesophication and significantly alter forest dynamics at broad spatial scales. Furthermore, the 2016 fires exposed the vulnerability of the region to wildfire during acute fall drought and demonstrate the potential ecological effects of future wildfires in mixed pine-hardwood landscapes of the southern Appalachians.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Role of Quantum Science Concepts in Enhancing Sensing and Imaging Technologies: Applications for Biology: Proceedings of a Workshop

Quantum concepts hold the potential to enable significant advances in sensing and imaging technologies that could be vital to the study of biological systems. The workshop Quantum Science Concepts in Enhancing Sensing and Imaging Technologies: Applications for Biology, held online March 8–10, 2021, was organized to examine the research and development needs to advance biological applications of quantum technology. Hosted by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, the event brought together experts working on state-of-the-art, quantum-enabled technologies and scientists who are interested in applying these technologies to biological systems. Through talks, panels, and discussions, the workshop facilitated a better understanding of the current and future biological applications of quantum-enabled technologies in fields such as microbiology, molecular biology, cell biology, plant science, mycology, and many others. The workshop was organized around three main themes. The first, quantum in biology, examined quantum concepts that are hypothesized to be important for life processes and that researchers are working to observe through biological imaging and sensing. The second, quantum for biology, addressed ways to use quantum concepts to enhance technologies for biological imaging and sensing. The third, biology for quantum, offered a wider discussion of how the frontiers of biological imaging and sensing could enable future study using quantum concepts, tools, or technologies. Throughout the workshop, participants identified a wide range of emerging approaches and opportunities at the intersection of quantum physics and biological sensing and imaging. During the workshop, there were some differences in how each speaker defined the term quantum. During one of the panels, Prem Kumar offered thoughts on what phenomena are classical versus quantum, explaining that techniques get progressively more quantum as you move from just having superposition to having superposition with measurement and entanglement. Another explanation from Clarice Aiello delineates the definition into several levels. This includes a base level of “quantum-ness,” which reflects that all matter is made of atoms, and when these particles are isolated they behave based on quantum mechanical principles. A second level is related to quantum coherence, where a single quantum object might be found in a coherent superposition state. A final level, which she described as the quantum-entangled level, involves multiple quantum systems which are entangled among themselves. Overall, the workshop touched on concepts such as superposition, entanglement, and squeezing and their potential implications for communication, computing, and simulation, in addition to the workshop’s main focal area, biological sensing and imaging. At the opening of the workshop, Thorsten Ritz of the University of California, Irvine, identified two questions at the heart of quantum biology: Is the machinery of life quantum mechanical, and can quantum mechanics be used to study the machinery of life in new ways? Participants highlighted systems in which researchers have explored these questions, from the vast array of molecular interactions involved in biological processes such as photosynthesis, to the mechanics involved in cellular functions such as differentiation and aggregation, to the role of oscillating magnetic fields in flight orientation among birds. Sensing and imaging technologies are crucial to biological research; these technologies could both enhance the study of quantum effects and be enhanced by quantum concepts. A critical challenge in biological research is to develop imaging and sensing tools that do not damage or interfere with the often fragile and fleeting systems being studied. Attendees discussed a variety of established and emerging technologies that could enhance noninvasive biological imaging, including single- and two-photon spectroscopy, single-molecule spectroscopy, quantum illumination, ghost imaging, and cryo-electron microscopy. One example came from Marlan Scully who gave a keynote address on the first day of the workshop. Scully emphasized the use of different laser technologies, which exhibit coherence and other quantum properties, in moving toward real-world biological applications, such as the detection of SARS-CoV-2. Both tools and theory will play an important role in advancing quantum biology research and applications. Several participants suggested theorists and experimentalists should work in tandem to understand and model biological processes. While physics often reduces systems to their simplest forms for fundamental insights, participants also noted the value of observing and understanding biological systems in all their “messiness,” capturing both the inner workings of biological systems and the complex interactions that occur within and between organisms. In discussions among participants, several attendees stressed the need to match emerging tools with the right scientific questions. Rather than developing quantum technologies as “a hammer looking for a nail,” participants emphasized a focus on exploring the problems these technologies are best suited to address. For example, it is important to consider the size of the phenomenon being studied, the timescales that are important in answering the scientific question, and other relevant considerations. Every tool along the spectrum from classical to quantum involves its own set of trade-offs. For example, Ted Laurence of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory said that quantum measurements, such as single photon counting, fluorescence transitions, and lasers, can take longer to produce the same results as classical measurements. These quantum measurements, however, do not require calibration and can enable new research questions to be answered. Prem Kumar, Northwestern University, noted that, despite their promise, quantum approaches should not be used simply for the sake of using quantum, especially in situations where classical approaches better meet the needs of the researcher. Understanding and applying quantum concepts could enable advances in a wide range of application areas including energy, synthetic biology, medicine, and sustainability. For example, Michelle O’Malley, University of California, Santa Barbara, described how improved noninvasive imaging approaches could help capture the complex interactions and functions involved in the breakdown of organic matter by microbial communities and lead to new technologies for capturing valuable products from plant waste. Several other participants discussed needs in tracking the movement of metabolites and molecules in microbial communities for insights into nutrient cycling in environments such as soil. Margaret Ahmad, Sorbonne University, discussed potential opportunities to leverage the magnetic properties of cryptochromes to advance new treatment approaches for diseases such as COVID-19 and cancer. Looking toward the future development of the field, participants discussed challenges to advancing quantum biology that arise from disciplinary disconnects between physicists and biologists. The siloing of academic research disciplines represents a significant barrier to progress. Disconnects in terminology, motivations and priorities, and structural barriers to collaborative work underscore the need for concerted efforts to bridge these divides. Attendees and speakers offered suggestions for resolving these divergences, establishing a shared language, moving the field forward, and fostering meaningful feedback between disciplines. Overall, participants stressed a need for balance, open communication, collaboration, unity, and clear dialogue on trade-offs between quantum and classical approaches. Keiko Torii, The University of Texas at Austin, said that the best collaborations happen when the project provides mutual advantages that can show off everyone’s talents, each team finds the work interesting, and partners develop a camaraderie to pursue new knowledge. To enable near- and long-term opportunities in this space, participants suggested that exploratory, high-risk funding could improve existing instrumentation to explore quantum enhancement collaboratively. They also emphasized the need for collaboration between quantum physicists and sensing/imaging scientists, which could be advanced through a dedicated quantum biology investigator program. People, even more than technology, will be crucial to the future of quantum biology. Participants explored training, education, and workforce needs to further develop this burgeoning field and cultivate the next generation of scientists. While many programs are still in their nascent stages, participants highlighted examples of approaches and programs being developed at various types of institutions to engage students and professional scientists in quantum biology research. Several participants stressed the need for an inclusive approach, spanning disciplines as well as communities to foster a diverse field fueled by the intellectual contributions of a wide range of people, including historically under-resourced schools and students. To increase awareness and excitement about quantum physics and related areas of biology, attendees suggested capitalizing on the “buzz” around quantum. Several participants emphasized the need to start early, introducing students to quantum concepts and their appealing “weirdness” in K–12 education. Engaging students early—before they become entrenched in traditional disciplinary siloes as typically happens in graduate school—could help to galvanize interest in the area and foster a generation of scientists with the interdisciplinary mindset and skills needed to advance this interdisciplinary field. While these efforts could be advanced at many levels and across multiple sectors, several participants suggested a national quantum biology center could be a valuable hub to coordinate and support quantum biology education and workforce development across academia, industry, and government.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Challenges in simulating economic effects of climate change on global agricultural markets

Abstract Many approaches have been used to investigate climate change impacts on agriculture. However, several caveats remain in this field: (i) analyses focus only on a few major crops, (ii) large differences in yield impacts are observed between projections from site-based crops models and Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs), (iii) climate change impacts on livestock are rarely quantified, and (iv) several causal relations among biophysical, environmental, and socioeconomic aspects are usually not taken into account. We investigate how assumptions about these four aspects affect agricultural markets, food supply, consumer well-being, and land use at global level by deploying a large-scale socioeconomic model of the global economy with detailed representation of the agricultural sector. We find global welfare impacts several times larger when climate impacts all crops and all livestock compared to a scenario with impacts limited to major crops. At the regional level, food budget can decrease by 10 to 25% in developing countries, challenging food security. The role of land area expansion as a major source of adaptation is highlighted. Climate impacts on crop yields from site-based process crop models generate more challenging socioeconomic outcomes than those from GGCMs. We conclude that the agricultural research community should expand efforts to estimate climate impacts on many more crops and livestock. Also, careful comparison of the GGCMs and traditional site-based process crop models is needed to understand their major implications for agricultural and food markets.

Gurgel, Angelo C. (ORCID:0000000183319508)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Post-hazard condition assessment of nuclear piping-equipment systems: Novel approach to feature extraction and deep learning

Over the past decade, the use of artificial intelligence techniques in the field of health-monitoring has gained significant interest, especially for structures such as building and bridges. However, applications to industrial systems such as equipment-piping systems in nuclear plants have not been explored. Here, in this paper, it is shown that the existing techniques developed for buildings and bridges cannot be extended directly to equipment-piping systems as the response of such systems is governed by multiple localized modes unlike that in buildings and bridges. This paper proposes a new approach that consists of three key aspects: (i) a novel vector of degradation-sensitive features extracted from measured data, (ii) using a deep Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for diagnosis of degradation location and degradation severity, and (iii) consideration of uncertainty in degradation severity when training the ANN. Degradation in piping-equipment systems can occur due to flow-accelerated erosion and corrosion. These locations can potentially exhibit damage such as localized yielding or initiation of cracking due to an external event such as an earthquake. Moreover, such locations can at times go undetected by current inspection techniques. Therefore, a robust framework is needed for detection of degradation after a seismic event. This manuscript proposes a proof-of-concept framework, which utilizes data collected from sensors to generate a deep ANN database for predicting degraded locations and severity in a piping-equipment system. Degradation severity is classified as minor, moderate, and severe. In the suggested methodology, a novel vector of degradation-sensitive features is extracted from the sensor data to train the ANN. A simple piping-equipment system is selected to demonstrate feature extraction as a means to simplify pattern recognition, explore the design and parameters of an ANN, and develop a sensor placement strategy. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is demonstrated on a realistic primary safety system of a two-loop nuclear reactor. It is shown that the proposed post-hazard condition assessment framework is able to detect degraded locations along with the severity levels, including minor degradation, with considerably higher accuracy.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A weighted state redistribution algorithm for embedded boundary grids

State redistribution is an algorithm that stabilizes cut cells for embedded boundary grid methods. This work extends the earlier algorithm in several important ways. First, state redistribution is extended to three spatial dimensions. Second, we discuss several algorithmic changes and improvements motivated by the more complicated cut cell geometries that can occur in higher dimensions. In particular, we introduce a weighted version with less dissipation in an easily generalizable framework. Third, we demonstrate that state redistribution can also stabilize a solution update that includes both advective and diffusive contributions. Notably, the stabilization algorithm is shown to be effective for incompressible as well as compressible reacting flows. Finally, we discuss the implementation of the algorithm for several exascale-ready simulation codes based on AMReX, demonstrating ease of use in combination with domain decomposition, hybrid parallelism and complex physics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integral LOCA fragmentation test on high-burnup fuel

Increasing the fuel burnup limit in light water reactors is sought to enhance fuel cycle economics and requires establishing a technical basis. Experimental observations of severe fuel fragmentation under loss-of-coolant-accident conditions at Halden and Studsvik had raised the need for additional considerations during the development of this technical basis. These test data suggested that the burnup threshold for high burnup fuel fragmentation may be influenced by pre-transient power. Additional loss-of-coolant-accident test data is therefore valuable to complement these tests and enhance the current state of understating. Oak Ridge National Lab has developed the Severe Accident Test Station capable of examining the oxidation kinetics and accident response of irradiated fuel and cladding materials for design basis accident and beyond design basis accident scenarios. Severe Accident Test Station provides various temperature profiles, steam, and the thermal shock conditions necessary for integral loss of coolant accident testing, defueled oxidation quench testing, and high-temperature beyond design basis accident testing. Severe Accident Test Station has been successfully installed and demonstrated in the Irradiated Fuels Examination Laboratory at Oak Ridge National Lab. Furthermore, descriptions of the in-cell re-fabrication capabilities and assembly of the loss-of-coolant-accident test train are provided. Installation of the Severe Accident Test Station system and in-cell re-fabrication restores United States capability to examine postulated and extended loss-of-coolant-accident conditions on spent fuel and cladding and provides a platform for evaluating advanced fuel and accident-tolerant fuel cladding concepts. Lastly, three in-cell integral loss-of-coolant-accident test were performed in the Severe Accident Test Station and compared to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission sponsored loss-of-coolant-accident test as well as the original loss-of-coolant-accident test performed at Argonne National Lab. Finally, the results of these tests as well as all publicly available integral loss-of-coolant-accident test were used to validate a threshold for high burnup fuel fragmentation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using Synchrophasor Status Word as Data Quality Indicator: What to Expect in the Field?

Data quality plays a crucial role in successful applications of synchrophasor data in power system operation and control. This paper presents the results of a data quality analysis of a multi-year field-recorded synchrophasor dataset. The analysis has identified several typical data quality issues encountered in the field data. An examination of the PMU status words included with the dataset has revealed several inconsistent implementations and the lack of correlation between the PMU data quality and the status word, which impacts the usefulness of such information. Our investigation has concluded that the status word alone as found in the recorded field dataset could not be used as a reliable indicator of data quality for field-recorded data. Several recommendations are proposed to improve the usefulness of the PMU status word.

Cheng, Zheyuan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterizing post-fire delayed tree mortality with remote sensing: sizing up the elephant in the room

Abstract Background Despite recent advances in understanding the drivers of tree-level delayed mortality, we lack a method for mapping delayed mortality at landscape and regional scales. Consequently, the extent, magnitude, and effects of delayed mortality on post-fire landscape patterns of burn severity are unknown. We introduce a remote sensing approach for mapping delayed mortality based on post-fire decline in the normalized burn ratio (NBR). NBR decline is defined as the change in NBR between the first post-fire measurement and the minimum NBR value up to 5 years post-fire for each pixel. We validate the method with high-resolution aerial photography from six wildfires in California, Oregon, and Washington, USA, and then compare the extent, magnitude, and effects of delayed mortality on landscape patterns of burn severity among fires and forest types. Results NBR decline was significantly correlated with post-fire canopy mortality (r 2 = 0.50) and predicted the presence of delayed mortality with 83% accuracy based on a threshold of 105 NBR decline. Plots with NBR decline greater than 105 were 23 times more likely to experience delayed mortality than those below the threshold (p < 0.001). Delayed mortality occurred across 6–38% of fire perimeters not affected by stand-replacing fire, generally affecting more areas in cold (22–41%) and wet (30%) forest types than in dry (1.7–19%) types. The total area initially mapped as unburned/very low-severity declined an average of 38.1% and generally persisted in smaller, more fragmented patches when considering delayed mortality. The total area initially mapped as high-severity increased an average of 16.2% and shifted towards larger, more contiguous patches. Conclusions Differences between 1- and 5-year post-fire burn severity maps depict dynamic post-fire mosaics resulting from delayed mortality, with variability among fires reflecting a range of potential drivers. We demonstrate that tree-level delayed mortality scales up to alter higher-level landscape patterns of burn severity with important implications for forest resilience and a range of fire-driven ecological outcomes. Our method can complement existing tree-level studies on drivers of delayed mortality, refine mapping of fire refugia, inform estimates of habitat and carbon losses, and provide a more comprehensive assessment of landscape and regional scale fire effects and trends.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for "Adsorptive Separation and Recovery of Triacetic Acid Lactone from Fermentation Broth"

Triacetic acid lactone (TAL) can be microbially produced and further chemically upgraded to several high-value chemicals. In this work, several acidic and basic ion-exchange resins and activated charcoal were evaluated for their ability to adsorb microbially produced TAL. Activated charcoal and a weak base resin, Dowex 66, showed similar TAL adsorption capacity of 0.18 ± 0.002 g/g. At 15% w/v activated charcoal, about 98% of TAL present in fermentation broth could be adsorbed. Further, ethanol washing allowed recovery of 72% of adsorbed TAL. A biorefinery producing TAL from sucrose was designed, simulated, and evaluated (through technoeconomic analysis) under uncertainty, for an estimated TAL minimum product selling price (MPSP) of $4.27/kg [$3.71−4.94/kg; 5th-95th percentiles] for the current state of technology and $2.83/kg [$2.46–3.29/kg] following potential near-term improvements to fermentation. Thus, this work provides an adsorptive process to recover microbially produced TAL that can be chemically upgraded to several industrial products.

Bioproducts↗
DOE OSTI2020

Establishing a Technical Assistance Network to Build Capacity in Southwest Alaska (Southwest Alaska Energy Network - Final Report)

The Southwest Alaska Municipal Conference (SWAMC) is a non-profit regional membership economic development organization that represents the Aleutian/Pribilof Islands, Bristol Bay, and Kodiak regions of southwest Alaska. SWAMC applied for the DOE-OIE Establishment of an Inter-Tribal Technical Assistance Energy Providers Network grant FOA to work with our partners to provide energy planning and project development technical assistance. The project team was made up of SWAMC, three regional organizations, a management consulting firm, and a panel of technical consultants. SWAMC sub-contracted with the three Alaska Native regional non-profit organizations – Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association (APIA), Bristol Bay Native Association (BBNA), and Kodiak Area Native Association (KANA) – to fund full or partial Regional Energy Coordinator (REC) positions. The project period ran from September 2016 to March 2020. The project goal was to help southwest Alaska regional tribal partners and communities to develop efficient and financially sustainable structures for identifying and developing energy projects that enhance community resiliency and energy sustainability. This project established energy coordinators and management structures in the Aleutian, Bristol Bay, and Kodiak regions to expand technical assistance capacity of regional residents; demonstrate this capacity by advancing energy efficiency, heat, and power supply projects; and secure long-term funding commitments to establish a sustained technical assistance structure. The project team expanded technical assistance capacity of energy coordinators and regional stakeholders in several ways: by providing funding for the SWAMC project manager to attend three Office of Indian Energy trainings; for energy coordinators to attend numerous energy conferences; for utility clerks from several villages to receive one-on-one reporting training on Alaska’s Power Cost Equalization electric subsidy program; and for the Kodiak REC to complete the Arctic Remote Energy Networks Academy and NREL’s Executive Energy Leadership Academy. The energy coordinators demonstrated and shared their increased capacity by hosting several public events: SWAMC hosted two full-day energy workshops in February 2017 and 2018; the Kodiak REC hosted seven Energy Committee meetings for Kodiak stakeholders and gave several presentations at other events; and SWAMC and BBNA organized a Bristol Bay Regional Energy Visioning Session in May 2019. The project team created platforms to both share and request information to involve energy stakeholders in this project, including an energy website, a Facebook group, a periodic newsletter, surveys, mass emails, and paper mailers. An increase in regional capacity was demonstrated through several grant awards, including a $1.2 million USDA grant for Akhiok for an electric distribution infrastructure replacement; an AHFC Kickstarter grant for Aleknagik to audit 2 Tribal and 3 City buildings; and installation of an Air Source Heat Pump demonstration project in Atka. Two communities and one region – Ouzinkie (May 2017), Ugashik (July 2017), and the Bristol Bay region (May 2019) – utilized DOE’s technical assistance services to hold Strategic Energy Planning sessions with NREL and DOE facilitation assistance. And in early 2018, SWAMC established a parallel program, funded through a USDA Energy Audit and Renewable Energy Development grant to provide subsidized energy audits for small businesses in the region. SWAMC and partners have now completed energy audits of over 60 businesses (buildings and fishing vessels) and are currently operating a third round of the USDA program. Fifteen of those business owners have now received additional grant funding to cover 25% of the cost of the energy efficiency upgrades identified in the audit. This technical assistance structure will be sustained beyond DOE grant funding in several forms. As a sign of increased grant writing and project management capacity, the Kodiak Regional Energy Coordinator applied for and received a USDA Community Facilities Technical Assistance and Training grant to continue work begun under this program. Energy coordination tasks have been folded into existing economic development positions at SWAMC and at BBNA, ensuring long-term outreach and support in the region.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Defining Lipidomic Responses to Coronavirus Infection

Highly pathogenic human coronavirus infection can cause a severe atypical, rapid onset pneumonia with a mortality rate of up to 10% for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 1 (SARS-CoV 1), 35% for Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), or 1% for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV 2 causative agent of COVID 19). While medical countermeasures successfully controlled the worldwide SARS-CoV epidemic, the MERS-CoV epidemic is still ongoing and continues to be a concern for travelers in the Middle East and the multi-year SARS-CoV 2 pandemic underscore the importance of defining biomarkers that are diagnostic and/or predictive of severe disease outcomes for respiratory viruses. Systems biology approaches provide global snapshots of infection induced changes in host cells/tissues and provide extremely rich datasets for understanding host pathogen interactions. Metabolites, especially lipids, are critical for viral replication but less is understood about infection induced changes to lipids due to limits in lipid species detection and identification. To characterize how individual lipid species and proteins with lipid associated functions contribute to highly pathogenic human coronavirus replication and disease severity, existing datasets were probed to determine cell type specific lipid responses to MERS-CoV infection and verification studies were performed to determine if modification of the host lipid signature (by inhibiting enzymatic functions that produce specific lipid species) can perturb CoV replication in human lung cells. MERS-CoV infects human lung epithelial, endothelial and fibroblast cells. All three cell types were infected with MERS-CoV and samples collected to analyze lipids, proteins, metabolites, and transcripts from 12 to 48 hours post infection. Time matched mock-infected cells were collected in parallel for each cell type. Following sample and statistical analysis, functional enrichment and bioinformatic analysis was performed to identify differentially expressed lipids and proteins. Two lipid species were found to be significantly upregulated following MERS-CoV infection, ceramides, and triacylglycerol both of which are indicative of cells undergoing apoptotic cell death. In contrast, sphingomyelins (lipid molecules that can serve as a precursor for one pathway for ceramide synthesis) had significantly decreased expression in MERS-CoV infected cells. An inhibitor of acid sphingomyelinase (that converts sphingomyelin to ceramides and phosphorylcholine) reduced MERS-CoV replication suggesting that production of ceramides is key for successful viral replication and transmission. Acyl-CoA-synthetase 3 (ACSL3), the only protein whose function is lipid associated and had increased differential expression in our dataset, regulates the synthesis of triacylglycerol (increased expression). Inhibitors that directly block ACSL3 (Triacsin C) but not steps later in the triacylglycerol synthesis pathway (Etomoxir) inhibit MERS-CoV replication suggesting that triacylglycerol production and/or ACSL3 activity is also key for viral replication. ACSL3 expression is also upregulated in lung cancer cells and is predicted to promote continued cell viability which would also enhance viral replication. The differentially expressed lipid and lipid-associated protein species identified in our studies suggest that MERS-CoV infection is activating cellular death pathways to limit the number of cells that become infected but also stimulating the production of lipid-associated enzymes that can prolong host cell viability and the amount of time progeny virions can be produced and released. As the inhibitors that worked against MERS-CoV infection were also efficacious against SARS-CoV 2 infection, countermeasures that target these host pathways may provide novel ways to block highly pathogenic human coronavirus infection and/or prevent severe disease outcomes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrated Model of Models for Global Flood Alerting

A dramatic increase in frequency of minor to major flooding since 2000 has caused significant economic losses across the world. To mitigate and recover from these losses, actions have been taken to build resilient communities and infrastructures, specifically, by providing situational awareness in near real-time about flood impacts to enhance response and recovery efforts. Several hydrologic and hydraulic flood models are available at various spatial and temporal resolutions to forecast flood events at regional to global scale. Given the global coverage of two operational flood models – GloFAS (Global Flood Awareness System) and GFMS (Global Flood Monitoring System), the purpose of this project is to implement a Model of Models (MoM) approach to integrate the outputs from these two models to classify flood severity at watershed level worldwide, and send alerts based on severity similar to the USGS PAGER (used for severity alerting and impact analysis for earthquakes) to flood impacted communities. The alerts containing flood impacts and severity information will be disseminated through the DisasterAWARE platform, operated by the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC), that provides global multi-hazard alerting and Situational Awareness information to the emergency management community and public. The current version of the MoM approach was implemented for a case study flood event that occurred during January and February of 2020 in South and Central Africa. The findings of the case study event reveal that the approach is effective in identifying potential flood impact areas and the spatio-temporal variation of flood severity, flood depth and extent at watershed level, which will be used to assess infrastructure and societal impacts using earth-observation data and for alerting.

Kar, Bandana↗
DOE OSTI2021

PV System Owner's Guide to Identifying, Assessing, and Addressing Weather Vulnerabilities, Risks, and Impacts

The report is designed to help federal facility managers, engineers, contractors, and consultants identify the most common PV system vulnerabilities that could lead from mild to catastrophic loss of PV systems during severe weather events. The guide helps users understand the type and severity of severe weather that can occur at any given location, and provides pre- and post-storm operations and maintenance (O&M) measures that can reduce the potential for damage to a PV system during a severe weather event and help speed the recovery of a PV system damaged during a storm. The guide emphasizes safety in responding to damage from severe weather events.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data and scripts associated with a manuscript analyzing ELM-FATES parameter sensitivity under pre-fire and postfire scenarios using machine learning

NOTE: The manuscript associated with this data package is currently in review. The data may be revised based on reviewer feedback. Upon manuscript acceptance, this data package will be updated with the final dataset and additional metadata. This data package is associated with the manuscript “Fire Severity-Dependent Shifts in Vegetation Parameter Sensitivity: A Pre- and Post-Fire Analysis Using ELM-FATES and Explainable AI” submitted to Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (Zahura et al. 2026). The study examines vegetation physiological parameters controlling pre-fire and post-fire vegetation dynamics. To support this analysis, 73 vegetation parameters in Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) (Fisher et al., 2018) , which is coupled with E3SM (Energy Exascale Earth System Model) land model (ELM, ELM-FATES), were perturbed using a Sobol sequence to generate 1,024 ensemble members for two plant functional types: needleleaf evergreen extratropical trees (NEET) and C3 grass. Simulations were conducted for the pre-fire period (2016) and post-fire period (2018–2023). Burn severity was represented by modifying the Nesterov index in FATES to 75,000, 150,000, and 300,000 for low, moderate, and high severity, respectively. A no-fire scenario was also included. Simulations were performed for 16 grid cells in the American River Watershed across different burn severities and plant functional types. XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) models were trained using the parameter ensembles and ELM-FATES-simulated outputs, including leaf area index (LAI), gross primary productivity (GPP), aboveground biomass, vegetation evaporation, transpiration, and soil evaporation. Models were trained separately for each year and burn severity, followed by SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis to identify changes in dominant parameters after fire disturbance. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. The data package contains the ELM-FATES simulation data. The scripts and data related to the analysis will be added later. The inputs and outputs from ELM-FATES are inside the “FATES” folder. “FATES_domain_surface” contains the domain and surface netcdfs that were used to run ELM-FATES in the study area. “FATES_parameters” contains the 1024 ensembles that were generated using Sobol sequence. “FATES_outputs” folder contains ELM-FATES simulated variables. All files are .csv and .nc (NetCDF).

Aboveground biomass↗
DOE OSTI2020

Aboveground Wood Production Is Sustained in the First Growing Season after Phloem-Disrupting Disturbance

Carbon (C) cycling processes are particularly dynamic following disturbance, with initial responses often indicative of longer-term change. In northern Michigan, USA, we initiated the Forest Resilience Threshold Experiment (FoRTE) to identify the processes that sustain or lead to the decline of C cycling rates across multiple levels (0, 45, 65 and 85% targeted gross leaf area index loss) of disturbance severity and, in response, to separate disturbance types preferentially targeting large or small diameter trees. Simulating the effects of boring insects, we stem girdled > 3600 trees below diameter at breast height (DBH), immediately and permanently disrupting the phloem. Weekly DBH measurements of girdled and otherwise healthy trees (n > 700) revealed small but significant increases in daily aboveground wood net primary production (ANPP w ) in the 65 and 85% disturbance severity treatments that emerged six weeks after girdling. However, we observed minimal change in end-of-season leaf area index and no significant differences in annual ANPP w among disturbance severities or between disturbance types, suggesting continued C fixation by girdled trees sustained stand-scale wood production in the first growing season after disturbance. We hypothesized higher disturbance severities would favor the growth of early successional species but observed no significant difference between early and middle to late successional species’ contributions to ANPP w across the disturbance severity gradient. We conclude that ANPP w stability immediately following phloem disruption is dependent on the continued, but inevitably temporary, growth of phloem-disrupted trees. Our findings provide insight into the tree-to-ecosystem mechanisms supporting stand-scale wood production stability in the first growing season following a phloem-disrupting disturbance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Application of multidimensional structural characterization to detect and describe moderate forest disturbance

The study of vegetation community and structural change has been central to ecology for over a century, yet the ways in which disturbances reshape the physical structure of forest canopies remain relatively unknown. Moderate severity disturbances affect different canopy strata and plant species, resulting in variable structural outcomes and ecological consequences. Terrestrial lidar (light detection and ranging) offers an unprecedented view of the interior arrangement and distribution of canopy elements, permitting the derivation of multidimensional measures of canopy structure that describe several canopy structural traits (CSTs) with known links to ecosystem function. We used lidar-derived CSTs within a machine learning framework to detect and describe the structural changes that result from various disturbance agents, including moderate severity fire, ice storm damage, age-related senescence, hemlock woolly adelgid, beech bark disease, and chronic acidification. We found that fire and ice storms primarily affected the amount and position of vegetation within canopies, while acidification, senescence, pathogen, and insect infestation altered canopy arrangement and complexity. Only two of the six disturbance agents significantly reduced leaf area, counter to common assumptions regarding many moderate severity disturbances. While findings are limited in their generalizability due to lack of replication among disturbances, they do suggest that the current limitations of standard disturbance detection methods—such as optical-based remote sensing platforms, which are often above-canopy perspectives—limit our ability to understand the full ecological and structural impacts of disturbance, and to evaluate the consistency of structural patterns within and among disturbance agents. A more broadly inclusive definition of ecological disturbance that incorporates multiple aspects of canopy structural change may potentially improve the modeling, detection, and prediction of functional implications of moderate severity disturbance as well as broaden our understanding of the ecological impacts of disturbance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗