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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Visualizing an Exascale Data Center Digital Twin: Considerations, Challenges and Opportunities

Digital twins are an excellent tool to model, visualize, and simulate complex systems, to understand and optimize their operation. In this work, we present the technical challenges of real-time visualization of a digital twin of the Frontier supercomputer.We show the initial prototype and current state of the twin and highlight technical design challenges of visualizing such a large High Performance Computing (HPC) system. The goal is to understand the use of augmented reality as a primary way to extract information and collaborate on digital twins of complex systems. This leverages the spatio-temporal aspect of a 3D representation of a digital twin, with the ability to view historical and real-time telemetry, triggering simulations of a system state and viewing the results, which can be augmented via dashboards for details. Finally, we discuss considerations and opportunities for augmented reality of digital twins of large-scale, parallel computers.

Maiterth, Matthias↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extreme Longitudinal Compression of Optimized Beams for MEV Ultrafast Electron Diffraction (Final Technical Report)

We worked out the design of a high repetition rate MeV energy ultrafast electron diffraction instrument based on the existing Cornell photoinjector, which can readily be applied to the presented findings. This example is a blueprint of other similarly arranged UED setups. Using particle tracking simulations in conjunction with multiobjective genetic algorithm optimization, we explored the smallest bunch lengths, emittance, and probe spot sizes achievable. As two limits, we defined stroboscopic conditions (with single electrons per pulse) and operation with 10 5 electrons per bunch which may be suitable for single-shot diffraction images. In the stroboscopic case, the flexibility provided by the many cavity bunching and acceleration allows for longitudinal phase space linearization without a higher harmonic field, providing sub-fs bunch lengths at the sample. Given low emittance photoemission conditions, these small bunch lengths can be maintained with probe transverse sizes at the single micron (1 μm) scale and below. In the case of 10 5 electrons per pulse, we simulated state-of-the-art 5D brightness conditions: rms bunch lengths of 10 fs with 3-nm normalized emittances, while permitting repetition rates as high as 1.3 GHz. We showed that in conjunction with collimating apertures, a novel focusing scheme achieves very high-quality emittance compensation for the central core of the beam composing 40% of particles, for a resulting beam size of 5 μm (rms). Finally, to aid in the design of new SRF-based ultrafast electron diffraction machines, we simulated the trade-off between the number of cavities used and achievable bunch length and emittance. In the longitudinal dimension, we made use of the fact that MeV UED requires much lower energy than the 15-MeV maxi mum energy of Cornell’s CBETA injector, and we may therefore use several of the SRF cavities for bunch length compression. In practice, we used a genetic optimization algorithm to choose the phases and amplitudes of the cavities appropriately for optimal bunching. In the zero space charge case, we found that bunching and acceleration are distributed across the six cavities in a way that produces a linearizing effect. And we showed that the ultimate bunch length can be limited by time-of-flight differences arising from transverse size and transverse momentum spread. The space charge code developed and used for this development is now permanent part of the Bmad accelerator simulation code and has already contributed to other developments, e.g., for the EIC electron cooler design.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Balancing Charging Station Utilization and Throughput in Electric Vehicle Charging Stations with Queuing Theory

The rapid increase in electric vehicle (EV) adoption demands enhancements in the efficiency and adaptability of EV supply equipment (EVSE). Traditional EVSE systems often fail to optimize power delivery to meet the variable acceptance rates of EV batteries, resulting in significant energy wastage and reduced operational efficiency. This research addresses these challenges by integrating queuing theory with modular EVSE architectures, offering a dual strategy to optimize the operation of EV charging stations. A simulation model was developed to assess various configurations of charger capacities and outlet numbers. This model aimed to identify the optimal setup that maximizes station utilization while minimizing charging times and maximizing throughput. The model focused on charger capacities ranging from 50 to 250 kW and analyzed the different capacities’ effects on charging times and the number of vehicles served. The results indicate that a charger capacity of 125 kW is optimal, striking a balance between the charging time and the number of EVs served per hour, thus achieving the highest station utilization rate. This capacity allows for servicing a significant number of EVs with moderate increases in charging times. Lower capacities, although capable of serving more vehicles, lead to longer charging times and decreased throughput efficiency. The study underscores the effectiveness of combining queuing theory with flexible, modular charging systems that can dynamically adjust to EV charging demands.

Kumar, Praveen↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Self Consistent 2D Simulation of Coherent Synchrotron Radiation Effects on Beam Dynamics

An increasing interest in high quality and high current electron beams necessitates a thorough understanding and prediction of coherent synchrotron radiation effects. The self-interaction of charged particles in a beam undergoing synchrotron motion is a physically significant process that is all too often computationally intensive with very little analytical results to rely on for the general case. The coherent spectrum of this interaction is of utmost importance to the design of free electron lasers (FELs) and an accurate assessment is imperative for their design. This work presents a novel implementation to the numerical simulation of charged particle beams. The simulation is a self-consistent approach including the self-fields generated by the beam of which coherent synchrotron radiation effects are of primary interest. A particle-in-cell model is used where a planar beam sampled by point particles is deposited on an encompassing grid at each timestep. The electromagnetic fields are calculated on the grid using the retarded potentials according to causality. The electromagnetic forces from the fields are interpolated on each particle which in turn advance in time. The simulation is benchmarked against well-established results for coherent synchrotron radiation effects. In addition, studies are provided that show the convergence of simulation results for increasing resolution. A study into the transverse beam size effects on beam dynamics is performed as well as a proof of concept where the simulation is used by a genetic algorithm to optimize the design parameters of a beam lattice. The results of these studies in tandem verify the efficacy of the simulation for its practical use in accelerator design or the study of synchrotron radiation effects

Duffin, Dallan [Old Dominion Univ., Norfolk, VA (U↗
DOE OSTI2026

Background-Oriented Schlieren Velocimetry of Helium Coolant Flow in Additively Manufactured Channels

High-pressure helium gas cooling is an attractive solution for thermal management of the fusion blanket first wall, as this coolant is chemically and neutronically inert and separable from hydrogenic species. However, due to the low thermal mass of helium, geometric optimization of these channels is required to provide sufficient cooling at manageable flow rates and pumping burdens. Increasingly, analysis and optimization of these coolant channels rely on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, and these require relevant experimental data for turbulence model validation. Toward this end, a high-pressure helium gas flow visualization system has been employed to image the flow of helium in flow channels with one-sided heating, mimicking the blanket first wall environment. Flow of helium at 4 MPa pressure and flow rates up to 68 g/s (Reynolds number 57 000) is supplied to rectangular channel test sections, with uniform heating applied to the bottom wall of the channel at heat fluxes varied between roughly 50 and 130 kW/m2. A high-speed camera is used to image index of refraction (IOR) gradients in the fluid via background-oriented schlieren (BOS), and temperature and pressure instrumentation are used to characterize thermal-hydraulic performance of each channel. Cross correlation of time-resolved BOS images is then used to calculate time-averaged 2-D helium velocity fields. Flow in additively manufactured (AM) channels is examined in this manner, including both featureless channels and those containing baffling as a heat transfer enhancement. The flow distribution seen in the featureless case differs significantly from that seen in prior simulations, whereas the flow in the baffled case shows the predicted behavior of flow forced along the heated wall. This augmented flow distribution is seen to increase the heat transfer coefficient in the baffled test section. Here, strategies are discussed for ongoing and future validation of these simulations, with the aim of model deployment for blanket cooling design and optimization.

Additive manufacturing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Liquid Crystal Orientation and Shape Optimization for the Active Response of Liquid Crystal Elastomers

Liquid crystal elastomers (LCEs) are responsive materials that can undergo large reversible deformations upon exposure to external stimuli, such as electrical and thermal fields. Controlling the alignment of their liquid crystals mesogens to achieve desired shape changes unlocks a new design paradigm that is unavailable when using traditional materials. While experimental measurements can provide valuable insights into their behavior, computational analysis is essential to exploit their full potential. Accurate simulation is not, however, the end goal; rather, it is the means to achieve their optimal design. Such design optimization problems are best solved with algorithms that require gradients, i.e., sensitivities, of the cost and constraint functions with respect to the design parameters, to efficiently traverse the design space. In this work, a nonlinear LCE model and adjoint sensitivity analysis are implemented in a scalable and flexible finite element-based open source framework and integrated into a gradient-based design optimization tool. To display the versatility of the computational framework, LCE design problems that optimize both the material, i.e., liquid crystal orientation, and structural shape to reach a target actuated shapes or maximize energy absorption are solved. Multiple parameterizations, customized to address fabrication limitations, are investigated in both 2D and 3D. The case studies are followed by a discussion on the simulation and design optimization hurdles, as well as potential avenues for improving the robustness of similar computational frameworks for applications of interest.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Black-box optimization of CT acquisition and reconstruction parameters: a reinforcement learning approach

Protocol optimization is critical in Computed Tomography (CT) for achieving desired diagnostic image quality while minimizing radiation dose. Due to the inter-effect of influencing CT parameters, traditional optimization methods rely on the testing of exhaustive combinations of these parameters. This poses a notable limitation due to the impracticality of exhaustive parameter testing. This study introduces a novel methodology leveraging Virtual Imaging Trials (VITs) and reinforcement learning to more efficiently optimize CT protocols. Computational phantoms with liver lesions were imaged using a validated CT simulator and reconstructed with a novel CT reconstruction Toolkit. The optimization parameter space included tube voltage, tube current, reconstruction kernel, slice thickness, and pixel size. The optimization process was done using a Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) agent which was trained to maximize the Detectability Index (d’) of the liver lesion for each reconstructed image. Results showed that our reinforcement learning approach found the absolute maximum d’ across the test cases while requiring 79.7% fewer steps compared to an exhaustive search, demonstrating both accuracy and computational efficiency, offering a efficient and robust framework for CT protocol optimization. The flexibility of the proposed technique allows for use of varying image quality metrics as the objective metric to maximize for. Our findings highlight the advantages of combining VIT and reinforcement learning for CT protocol management.

Fenwick, David [Duke University Medical Center]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Report on the "Symposium on Advancements in Simulating Neutron Scattering Instruments and Experiments"

An international group of researchers gathered for the “Symposium on Advancements in Simulating Neutron Scattering Instruments and Experiments” at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) on October 29- 30, 2024. The symposium highlighted state-of-the-art advancements in neutron scattering instrument simulations and the development of digital twins for scattering instruments. This document summarizes the recurring themes from the 19 talks and discussions. A key focus was on the role of neutronics simulations in the design, analysis, and performance optimization of neutron instruments. Presentations featured the most widely used software packages, such as McStas, McVine, Vitess, and MCNP. Another major theme addressed the analysis and interpretation of experimental neutron data, where materials models and simulations play a critical role. Talks on relevant software tools, including NCrystal, OCLimax, and Paradyse, were delivered by their respective developers. During the symposium, both talks and breakout sessions explored strategies to enhance the interplay between neutronics simulations and materials models. A key question emerged: How can we develop a RealTime Explainable Digital Twin of a neutron scattering experiment? Discussions include the idea that the Digital Twin concept has implications for instrument control and testing. Through this symposium, we gained valuable insights into the challenges and requirements for developing a Real-Time Explainable Digital Twin of a neutron scattering experiment. The discussions and presentations paved the way for future innovations in this rapidly advancing field.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Wellbore Stability and Mud Loss Management in Geothermal Drilling: Optimizing Mud Weight to Mitigate Tensile Wellbore Fracturing at The Geysers, California

As part of a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office-funded initiative, Geysers Power Company, LLC, a subsidiary of Calpine Corporation, has been working to enhance drilling performance at the world’s largest geothermal field, The Geysers, in northern California. In a recent drilling operation of the GDC-36 well, excessive mud losses were encountered, initially addressed through repeated but largely ineffective cement plugging. Ultimately, the most effective strategy was to drill blind through the loss zones, made feasible by the high rate of penetration (ROP) achieved with PDC bits, allowing significant progress before the mud tanks were depleted and water-sensitive argillic formation layers could collapse. In response to these challenges, the project team explored alternative methods to minimize downtime and risks associated with cement plugging and continuous mud loss and to contemplate the driving mechanisms for the losses. Wellbore imaging using Formation MicroImager (FMI) and Ultrasonic Borehole Imager (UBI) tools revealed longitudinal tensile fractures, which were attributed to mud weights exceeding the minimum circumferential stress resulting from the native stress field and formation pressure. This study examines the mud losses encountered and leverages wellbore imaging data to understand the mechanisms behind mud induced tensile fracturing in specific rock facies. Understanding fracture behavior across different lithologies is crucial, as fractures within the reservoir can enhance steam migration throughout the system. The reservoir at The Geysers lies within the Mesozoic Franciscan Assemblage, a tectonic mélange formed by subduction. It consists of metamorphosed turbidite sandstone (greywacke) and mudstone (argillite), oceanic upper crust (including greenstone and chert), and serpentinized ultramafic rocks - each exhibiting distinct geomechanical fracturing properties. The structural fabric of the Franciscan Assemblage was shaped by low-angle Mesozoic thrust faulting and later overprinted by sub-vertical strike-slip structures related to the Pacific-North American plate boundary. A wellbore stability model was developed using core measurements and logs to simulate fracturing scenarios during drilling under varying stress conditions. These simulations guided the development of an optimized mud weight management strategy that should enable adaptive adjustments during drilling, reducing the likelihood of tensile fracturing and mud losses, ultimately improving operational efficiency.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

An implementation of a high-order generalized finite difference method for solving the time-harmonic cold plasma wave equation in toroidal geometry

A high-order physics-informed meshless finite difference numerical technique is introduced for solving the time-harmonic cold plasma wave equation in toroidal geometries, presenting a novel application of the generalized finite difference (GFD) method to plasma wave simulations. The algorithm employs an irregular distribution of computational points, with local point density informed by the shortest wavelength derived from the cold plasma dispersion relation. Numerical stability and robustness are addressed using regularization techniques. The algorithm, implemented for two spatial dimensions, solves for the wave electric field and is demonstrated to achieve convergence rates of $\mathcal{O}$($\mathcal{h}$ $\mathcal{P}$ )⁠. Verification tests reproduce plane wave solutions, and example simulations of ion cyclotron resonance heating and electron cyclotron resonance heating demonstrate its capability, approaching realistic tokamak plasma scenarios. This work contributes to laying a foundation for the GFD method to be used in more sophisticated, optimized, and physically realistic full-wave simulations in time-harmonic plasma wave research.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Minimizing CGYRO HPC Communication Costs in Ensembles with XGYRO by Sharing the Collisional Constant Tensor Structure

First-principles fusion plasma simulations are both compute and memory intensive, and CGYRO is no exception. The use of many HPC nodes to fit the problem in the available memory thus results in significant communication overhead, which is hard to avoid for any single simulation. That said, most fusion studies are composed of ensembles of simulations, so we developed a new tool, named XGYRO, that executes a whole ensemble of CGYRO simulations as a single HPC job. By treating the ensemble as a unit, XGYRO can alter the global buffer distribution logic and apply optimizations that are not feasible on any single simulation, but only on the ensemble as a whole. The main saving comes from the sharing of the collisional constant tensor structure, since its values are typically identical between parameter-sweep simulations. This data structure dominates the memory consumption of CGYRO simulations, so distributing it among the whole ensemble results in drastic memory savings for each simulation, which in turn results in overall lower communication overhead.

CGYRO↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advancing Concentrating Solar Thermal Modeling Using System Advisor Model (SAM)

Concentrating solar thermal (CST) technologies play a critical role in enabling dispatchable power and high-temperature industrial heat applications. Accurate and flexible modeling tools are essential for evaluating system performance, guiding technology research and development, and informing investment decisions. The National Laboratory of the Rockies's System Advisor Model (SAM) is a widely used techno-economic simulation platform for CST systems, providing detailed performance and financial modeling capabilities for multiple CST system configurations. SAM integrates physics-based performance models with financial analysis to simulate the behavior of complex energy systems under realistic operating conditions. For CST technologies (including tower, parabolic trough, and linear Fresnel), SAM enables hourly simulations using site-specific weather data that ensure feasible operating conditions and convergence of mass and energy between core system components (i.e., solar field, receiver, thermal energy storage, and power cycle). These capabilities allow researchers and developers to evaluate annual energy production, capacity factors, levelized cost of energy (LCOE), and system dispatch strategies. A key advantage of SAM lies in its flexibility for parametric analysis and large-scale computational studies. Users can vary system design parameters such as heliostat field layout, receiver dimensions, thermal energy storage capacity, power block sizing, and installation cost assumptions to investigate their impact on system performance and financial metrics. When combined with automated scripting through LK, SDKTool, or Python interfaces, SAM enables high-throughput simulation workflows that support sensitivity analysis, technology benchmarking, and optimization studies. These approaches are particularly valuable for next-generation CST concepts, where design spaces are large and system interactions are complex. Another important capability of SAM is its support for dispatch optimization and thermal energy storage modeling, which are central to the value proposition of CST technologies. The ability to simulate integrated storage and flexible power generation allows researchers to explore strategies that maximize grid value, improve capacity utilization, and enhance integration with variable resources such as photovoltaic and wind generation. This poster will present an overview of SAM's thermal system modeling capabilities including concentrating solar. Additionally, we will highlight new feature developments including: 1) implementing Google's OR-Tools optimization platform for faster and more robust dispatch optimization, 2) developing a new power load following controller for modeling behind-the-meter applications, 3) enabling direct modeling of CSP-PV hybrid systems with the inclusion of battery storage, and 4) developing a multi-receiver falling particle Gen3 system model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data‐Driven Engineering of Thermostable Collagen‐Mimetic Peptoid Triple Helices

Collagen-mimetic peptides (CMPs) are engineered molecules designed to replicate the triple-helical structure of natural collagen. A repeating x–y-Gly sequence is the defining motif of CMPs and is critical to their triple-helical structure and stability. Substitutions to the residues occupying the x and y positions present a means to modulate the CMP structure and properties. Peptoid residues—N-substituted glycine derivatives—present an attractive potential substitution due to their thermal stability, proteolytic resistance, biocompatibility, and diverse palette of non-natural side chains, but also tend to introduce a high degree of backbone flexibility that can diminish the stability of the triple helix. In this work, we report a computational active learning cycle comprising molecular dynamics simulation, Gaussian process regression, and Bayesian optimization to computationally identify a number of promising peptoid substitutions predicted to stabilize the desired quaternary structure through side chain interactions and produce stable peptoid-based collagen-like triple helices. To experimentally test the computational predictions, a top candidate identified by the screen was synthesized and imaged using scanning electron microscopy to resolve fibril-like bundles consistent with collagen-like triple helices. This work predicts a number of CMP peptoid substitutions capable of forming stable triple-helical structures, presents a generalizable design strategy for engineering desired peptoid structures, and opens new avenues for the design of peptoid-based biomimetic materials.

active learning↗
DOE OSTI2026

Neutrino oscillation prospects with a dual-baseline beam from BNL to SNOLAB and SURF

The Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) is a next-generation accelerator primarily designed to study the internal structure of nucleons through high-precision electron-hadron collisions. In this work, we explore the feasibility of employing a 1 MW fraction of the EIC proton beam to generate a high-intensity GeV-scale neutrino beam for long-baseline oscillation studies. We have simulated proton-target interactions and optimize the resulting neutrino fluxes for water-based liquid scintillator (WbLS) detectors located at distinct baselines of 900 km and at 2900 km. Oscillation analyses performed with GLoBES show that extended baselines allow access to multiple oscillation maxima, significantly enhancing sensitivity to leptonic CP violation. The study also examines the interplay between matter effects and the intrinsic CP violating phase in shaping observable asymmetries. We note that simplified systematics and no backgrounds are used in this analysis to establish the baseline physics potential. These results suggest that the EIC proton beam could provide a novel and complementary source for precision neutrino physics, extending the scientific reach of the EIC program.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Experimental and fuel-surrogates modeling study of the high-pressure pyrolysis of specialty cetane number fuels: implications for fall-off in ethylene unimolecular dissociation

Single pulse shock tube experiments were conducted at 50 atm nominal pressure and 4 ms nominal reaction time over a temperature range of 900–1800 K, to study the pyrolysis speciation of a multi-component jet fuel, F-24, and six cetane number (CN) specialty fuels - CN30, CN35, CN40, CN45, CN50, and CN55. Gas chromatography (GC) was used to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the post shock gases. The relationship between the formation of key pyrolysis species and the chemically controlled combustion propensity as reflected by the cetane number of each fuel was examined. A surrogate-based mechanism from the CRECK Modelling Group and chemical-functional group based optimized surrogates (CFGO) were used to simulate the pyrolysis speciation results. The model was able to capture the chemistry of most species except two important pyrolysis intermediates – ethylene and acetylene. Chemical kinetic analyses were performed to identify the important reactions which affect the chemistry of these species; however, the rate parameters of critical reactions were found to be unsuitable for simulating the present high-pressure studies. Here, to address this unsuitability, a theory-based fall-off analysis for three reactions representing the decomposition of ethylene and subsequent formation of acetylene was performed, and these are included in an updated version of the CRECK mechanism. This update resolves discrepancies between the experimental results and simulations for ethylene and acetylene. Reaction flux analyses using the updated surrogate model were also performed to identify the important reaction pathways responsible for the formation of crucial species and to provide an analysis of the chemistry of complex multi-component fuel systems. The fundamental reactions responsible for driving pyrolysis chemistry were greatly influenced by the chemical functional groups present in these fuels. In addition to updating the rate parameters of specific reactions to improve modeling, this study also emphasizes the effectiveness of the fuel-surrogate approach, where surrogates representing the chemical functional group composition of the parent fuel serve as a valuable tool for predicting the combustion chemistry of novel fuels.

Chemical Kinetics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Techno-Economic Analysis of Recycling Strategies for Catalyst and Acid During Catalytic Graphitization

With the aim of meeting the urgent demand for active anode materials (AAM) in energy storage systems, bio-based graphite (biographite) emerges as an affordable solution to de-risk the turbulent supply chain of critical minerals. Anode grade biographite requires high crystallinity and purity, which can be achieved by catalytic graphitization with iron, followed by acid washing. Therefore, a well-conceived process integration that recycles catalyst can be the starting point to commercialization. This study evaluates closed-loop catalyst recovery, and byproducts valorization scenarios through a technoeconomic framework to help understand the scale-up potential of biographite. For the acid washing, three reactors in series meet the required biographite purity at 99.95%. Iron and acid recovery can reduce material consumption and waste generation by ~95%, albeit at the expense of ~80% increase in capital costs. Recovery scenarios present similar capital and operational expenses, yielding minimum selling prices (MSP) near $6 kg-1 of biographite. Monte Carlo methodology reveals that feedstock price accounts for ~60% of MSP variance, followed by plant capacity ~20%. The likelihood of reaching a competitive profit margin of 30% in the U.S. AAM market sits at 85% average for recovery scenarios, and 103% when iron oxide is sold as byproduct. Additionally, an IRR >= 15% can be achieved for half of Monte Carlo simulations, representing promising early-stage results. Biographite production offers a strategic pathway to stabilize the anode market beyond China by integrating established technologies for a scalable, economically viable, and sustainable process. The role of catalyst recovery and byproducts utilization is critical for advancing the biomaterials industry.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Global energy balance simulations of shattered pellet injection

The dynamics of shattered pellet injection (SPI) shutdowns are simulated using a time-dependent global energy balance model, based on a modification of the KPRAD framework. The new SPI particle source in the model calculates the ablation of individual pellet fragments that enter the plasma as a temporally resolved plume, thus capturing the effects of earlier fragments on the ablation of those that follow, which has a significant impact on the overall assimilation. Despite the reduced physics and the global averaging of all quantities, results from a large number of DIII-D, KSTAR, and JET experiments are well reproduced, including the plasma cooling timescales, particle assimilation, and current quench (CQ) rates. Cooling timescales and CQ rates are in good agreement for pellets containing as little as ∼1% neon, while particle assimilations are most accurate for neon fractions above ∼15% by number of atoms. Below this, the assimilation tends to be overestimated due to the lack of radial transport in the particle balance, which becomes important in the low-Z limit. Predictive simulations of mixed-composition dual-SPI shutdowns in ITER are compared against those with the 3D non-linear magnetohydrodynamic code JOREK and are found to reproduce overall trends observed in the higher-fidelity modeling across a range of injection scenarios. The general success of the model points to the critical role of energy balance in determining SPI particle assimilation and the subsequent disruption dynamics and highlights the value of these simulations for experimental interpretation and for optimizing the deployment of computationally expensive, higher-fidelity models.

energy balance model↗