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NASA NTRS2017

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

The Natural Environments Branch of the Engineering Directorate at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides solar cycle forecasts for NASA space flight programs and the aerospace community. These forecasts provide future statistical estimates of sunspot number, solar radio 10.7 cm flux (F10.7), and the geomagnetic planetary index, Ap, for input to various space environment models. For example, many thermosphere density computer models used in spacecraft operations, orbital lifetime analysis, and the planning of future spacecraft missions require as inputs the F10.7 and Ap. The solar forecast is updated each month by executing MSAFE using historical and the latest month's observed solar indices to provide estimates for the balance of the current solar cycle. The forecasted solar indices represent the 13-month smoothed values consisting of a best estimate value stated as a 50 percentile value along with approximate +/- 2 sigma values stated as 95 and 5 percentile statistical values. This presentation will give an overview of the MSAFE model and the forecast for the current solar cycle.

Suggs, Ron↗

NASA NTRS2017

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

Suggs, Ron↗

NASA NTRS2011

Magnetic Field-Line Lengths in Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections Inferred from Energetic Electron Events

About one quarter of the observed interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are characterized by enhanced magnetic fields that smoothly rotate in direction over timescales of about 10-50 hr. These ICMEs have the appearance of magnetic flux ropes and are known as "magnetic clouds" (MCs). The total lengths of MC field lines can be determined using solar energetic particles of known speeds when the solar release times and the I AU onset times of the particles are known. A recent examination of about 30 near-relativistic (NR) electron events in and near 8 MCs showed no obvious indication that the field-line lengths were longest near the MC boundaries and shortest at the MC axes or outside the MCs, contrary to the expectations for a flux rope. Here we use the impulsive beamed NR electron events observed with the Electron Proton and Alpha Monitor instrument on the Advanced Composition Explorer spacecraft and type III radio bursts observed on the Wind spacecraft to determine the field-line lengths inside ICMEs included in the catalog of Richardson & Cane. In particular, we extend this technique to ICMEs that are not MCs and compare the field-line lengths inside MCs and non-MC ICMEs with those in the ambient solar wind outside the ICMEs. No significant differences of field-line lengths are found among MCs, ICMEs, and the ambient solar wind. The estimated number of ICME field-line turns is generally smaller than those deduced for flux-rope model fits to MCs. We also find cases in which the electron injections occur in solar active regions CARs) distant from the source ARs of the ICMEs, supporting CME models that require extensive coronal magnetic reconnection with surrounding fields. The field-line lengths are found to be statistically longer for the NR electron events classified as ramps and interpreted as shock injections somewhat delayed from the type III bursts. The path lengths of the remaining spike and pulse electron events are compared with model calculations of solar wind field-line lengths resulting from turbulence and found to be in good agreement.

Kahler, S. W.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Cirrus Cloud Radiative and Microphysical Properties from Ground Observations and In Situ Measurements During FIRE 1991 and Their Application to Exhibit Problems in Cirrus Solar Radiative Transfer Modeling

Measurements from the FIRE 1991 cirrus cloud field experiment in the central United States are presented and analyzed. The first part focuses on cirrus microphysical properties. Aircraft 2D-probe in situ data at different cloud altitudes were evaluated for cirrus cases on four different days. Also presented are simultaneous data samples from balloonborne videosondes. Only these balloonsondes could detect the smaller crystals. Their data suggest (at least for midlatitude altitudes below 10 km) that ice crystals smaller than 15 microns in size are rare and that small ice crystals not detected by 2D-probe measurements are radiatively of minor importance, as overlooked 2D-probe crystals account for about 10% of the total extinction. The second part focuses on the link between cirrus cloud properties and radiation. With cloud macrophysical properties from surface remote sensing added to the microphysical data and additional radiation measurements at the surface, testbeds for radiative transfer models were created. To focus on scattering processes, model evaluations were limited to the solar radiative transfer by comparing calculated and measured transmissions of sunlight at the surface. Comparisons under cloud-free conditions already reveal a model bias of about +45 W/sq m for the hemispheric solar downward broadband flux. This discrepancy, which is (at least in part) difficult to explain, has to be accounted for in comparisons involving clouds. Comparisons under cirrus cloud conditions identify as the major obstacle in cirrus solar radiative transfer modeling the inability of one-dimensional radiative transfer models to account for horizontal inhomogeneities. The successful incorporation of multidimensional radiative transfer effects will depend not only on better models but critically on the ability to measure and to define characteristic inhomogeneity scales of cloud fields. The relative minor error related to the microphysical treatment is in part a reflection of the improved understanding on solar scattering on ice crystals over the last decade and of the available wealth on ice-crystal size and shape data for this study. In absence of this information, uncertainties from microphysical cirrus model assumptions will remain high.

Kinne, Stefan↗

NASA NTRS1994

Coupling of the coronal helium abundance to the solar wind

Models of the transition region-corona-solar wind system are investigated in order to find the coronal helium abundance and to study the role played by coronal helium in controlling the solar wind proton flux. The thermal force on alpha-particles in the transition region sets the flow of helium into the corona. The frictional coupling between alpha-particles and protons and/or the electric polarization field determines the proton flux in the solar wind as well as the fate of the coronal helium content. The models are constructed by solving the time-dependent population and momentum equations for all species of hydrogen and helium in an atmosphere with a given temperature profile. Several temperature profiles are considered in order to very the roles of frictional coupling and electric polarization field in the solar wind, and the thermal force in the transition region. Steady-state solutions are found for coronae with a hydrogen flux at 1 AU of 1.0 x 10(exp 9)/cm(exp 2)/sec or larger. For coronae with lower hydrogen fluxes, the helium flux into the corona is larger than the flux 'pulled out' by the solar wind protons, and solutions with increasing coronal helium content are found. The timescale for forming a helium-filled corona, that may allow for a steady outflow, is long compared to the mixing time for the corona.

Hansteen, Viggo H.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Model for energy transfer in the solar wind: Formulation of model

The two-fluid solar-wind model is extended by including the collisionless dissipation of hydromagnetic waves originating at the sun. A series of solar wind models is generated, parameterized by the total energy flux of hydromagnetic waves at the base of the model. The resulting properties of propagation and dissipating of hydromagnetic waves on this model are presented.

Hartle, R. E.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Model fitting of the Algol binaries

Energy distribution of the component stars of the Algol type semidetached binaries were studied by combining IUE low dispersion spectra with optical scans made with the same resolution. In most cases the flux distributions are matched by Kuruz model atmospheres with normal solar composition. Deviations from normal atmospheres which indicate a higher level of activity and interaction in the binaries are examined. Eclipse observations in U Cep and V356 Sgr reveal emission lines of the W serpentis type.

Dobias, J. J.↗

NASA NTRS1985

On the ultraviolet energy distributions and the temperatures of peculiar B and A stars

Color temperatures have been estimated by comparing ultraviolet observations of HgMn and magnetic Ap stars with those of normal stars. Ultraviolet data from the OAO-2, ANS, TD-1, and IUE satellites generally give similar results. The values for the normal stars were derived from comparison of fluxes predicted by solar-composition fully line-blanketed model atmospheres with optical region spectrophotometry. The ultraviolet temperatures of the HgMn stars cover a narrower temperature range than do their optical region values. Magnetic Ap stars with similar optical region temperatures can show substantial differences in their ultraviolet color temperatures. This may result from magnetic field configuration and abundance differences.

Adelman, S. J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Loss of equilibrium and reconnection in tearing of two-dimensional equilibria

Two-dimensional tearinglike behavior is studied in reduced resistive magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) with flux conserving boundary conditions on a rectangular box. The tearinglike perturbations do not destroy the symmetries of the initial state, either discrete or continuous. In such cases, in which the perturbation does not break a symmetry of the equilibrium, linear instability is typically not directly observed. However, there can be a loss of equilibrium associated with the existence of a tearing unstable state. These ideas are illustrated with three examples: a very elongated tokamak, a tokamak with pinching coils to elongate its flux surfaces, and a model for the magnetotail or for solar arcades. The loss of equilibrium is demonstrated by means of a nonlinear energy functional. The importance of the fact that the dynamics shows a loss of equilibrium is that a large amount of free energy can be released, in the form of reconnection, and that there is a possibility of hysteresis.

Finn, John M.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Trend analysis of the long-term Swiss ozone measurements

Trend analyses, assuming a linear trend which started at 1970, were performed from total ozone measurements from Arosa (Switzerland, 1926-1991). Decreases in monthly mean values were statistically significant for October through April showing decreases of about 2.0-4 percent per decade. For the period 1947-91, total ozone trends were further investigated using a multiple regression model. Temperature of a mountain peak in Switzerland (Mt. Santis), the F10.7 solar flux series, the QBO series (quasi biennial oscillation), and the southern oscillation index (SOI) were included as explanatory variables. Trends in the monthly mean values were statistically significant for December through April. The same multiple regression model was applied to investigate the ozone trends at various altitudes using the ozone balloon soundings from Payerne (1967-1989) and the Umkehr measurements from Arosa (1947-1989). The results show four different vertical trend regimes: On a relative scale changes were largest in the troposphere (increase of about 10 percent per decade). On an absolute scale the largest trends were obtained in the lower stratosphere (decrease of approximately 6 per decade at an altitude of about 18 to 22 km). No significant trends were observed at approximately 30 km, whereas stratospheric ozone decreased in the upper stratosphere.

Staehelin, Johannes↗

NASA NTRS2011

Effects of Low Activity Solar Cycle on Orbital Debris Lifetime

Long duration of low solar activity in the last solar minimum has an undesirable consequence of extending the lifetime of orbital debris. The AFRL TacSat-2 satellite decommissioned in 2008 has finally re-entered into the atmosphere on February 5th after more than one year overdue. Concerning its demise we have monitored its orbital decay and monthly forecasted Tacsat-2 re-entry since September 2010 by using the Orbital Element Prediction (OEP) model developed by the AFRL Orbital Drag Environment program. The model combines estimates of future solar activity with neutral density models, drag coefficient models, and an orbit propagator to predict satellite lifetime. We run the OEP model with solar indices forecast by the NASA Marshall Solar Activity Future Estimation model, and neutral density forecast by the MSIS-00 neutral density model. Based on the two line elements in 2010 up to mid September, we estimated at a 50% confidence level TacSat-2's re-entry time to be in early February 2011, which turned out to be in good agreement with Tacsat-2's actual re-entry date. The potential space weather effects of the coming low activity solar cycle on satellite lifetime and orbital debris population are examined. The NASA long-term orbital debris evolutionary model, LEGEND, is used to quantify the effects of solar flux on the orbital debris population in the 200-600 km altitude environment. The results are discussed for developing satellite orbital drag application product.

Cable, Samual B.↗

NASA NTRS1989

A review of the 11-year solar cycle, the QBO, and the atmosphere relationship

The papers published by Labitzke (1987) and by Labitzke and Van Loon (1988) indicated that the separation of Winter stratospheric data according to the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (Q.B.O.) led to a largely improved relationship with the 11 year solar cycle. Since then, this possible relationship has been studied and extended from the surface to the lower thermosphere and its extension to other seasons is in progress. An opportunity is provided to review the state of the problem and to attempt to give a general view of the experimentally observed responses of the atmosphere to solar activity, when considering the phases of the Q.B.O. After a brief recall of the relationship discovered in the winter stratosphere, its extension downwards, upwards and to the other seasons are successively reviewed. The existing models are not adequate right now to represent the solar influence as they only take into account the change in UV flux, but before being able to use the large scale dynamics in a coupled radiative photochemical model, one needs to understand the mechanism able to explain the forcing from the lower atmosphere or the surface which could be induced by a change in solar activity.

Chanin, M. L.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Defining Top-of-Atmosphere Flux Reference Level for Earth Radiation Budget Studies

To estimate the earth's radiation budget at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) from satellite-measured radiances, it is necessary to account for the finite geometry of the earth and recognize that the earth is a solid body surrounded by a translucent atmosphere of finite thickness that attenuates solar radiation differently at different heights. As a result, in order to account for all of the reflected solar and emitted thermal radiation from the planet by direct integration of satellite-measured radiances, the measurement viewing geometry must be defined at a reference level well above the earth s surface (e.g., 100 km). This ensures that all radiation contributions, including radiation escaping the planet along slant paths above the earth s tangent point, are accounted for. By using a field-of- view (FOV) reference level that is too low (such as the surface reference level), TOA fluxes for most scene types are systematically underestimated by 1-2 W/sq m. In addition, since TOA flux represents a flow of radiant energy per unit area, and varies with distance from the earth according to the inverse-square law, a reference level is also needed to define satellite-based TOA fluxes. From theoretical radiative transfer calculations using a model that accounts for spherical geometry, the optimal reference level for defining TOA fluxes in radiation budget studies for the earth is estimated to be approximately 20 km. At this reference level, there is no need to explicitly account for horizontal transmission of solar radiation through the atmosphere in the earth radiation budget calculation. In this context, therefore, the 20-km reference level corresponds to the effective radiative top of atmosphere for the planet. Although the optimal flux reference level depends slightly on scene type due to differences in effective transmission of solar radiation with cloud height, the difference in flux caused by neglecting the scene-type dependence is less than 0.1%. If an inappropriate TOA flux reference level is used to define satellite TOA fluxes, and horizontal transmission of solar radiation through the planet is not accounted for in the radiation budget equation, systematic errors in net flux of up to 8 W/sq m can result. Since climate models generally use a plane-parallel model approximation to estimate TOA fluxes and the earth radiation budget, they implicitly assume zero horizontal transmission of solar radiation in the radiation budget equation, and do not need to specify a flux reference level. By defining satellite-based TOA flux estimates at a 20-km flux reference level, comparisons with plane-parallel climate model calculations are simplified since there is no need to explicitly correct plane-parallel climate model fluxes for horizontal transmission of solar radiation through a finite earth.

Loeb, N. G.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Magnetic reconnection in solar flares

The magnetic energy stored in the corona is the only plausible source for the energy released during large solar flares. During the last 20 years most theoretical work has concentrated on models which store magnetic energy in the corona in the form of electrical currents, and a major goal of present day research is to understand how these currents are created, and then later dissipated during a flare. Another important goal is to find a flare model which can eject magnetic flux into interplanetary space. Although many flares do not eject magnetic flux, those which do are of special importance for solar-terrestrial relations since the ejected flux can have dramatic effects if it hits the Earth's magnetosphere. Three flare models which have been extensively investigated are the emerging-flux model, the sheared-arcade model, and the magnetic-flux-rope model. All of these models can store and release magnetic energy efficiently provided that rapid magnetic reconnection occurs. However, only the magnetic-flux-rope model appears to provide a plausible mechanism for ejecting magnetic flux into interplanetary space.

Forbes, T. G.↗

NASA NTRS2022

New Insights into the First Two PSP Solar Encounters Enabled by Modeling Analysis with ADAPT-WSA

Parker Solar Probe's (PSP's) unique orbital path allows us to observe the solar wind closer to the Sun than ever before. Essential to advancing our knowledge of solar wind and energetic particle formation is identifying the sources of PSP observations. We report on results for the first two PSP solar encounters derived using the Wang–Sheeley–Arge (WSA) model driven by Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport (ADAPT) model maps. We derive the coronal magnetic field and the 1 R⊙ source regions of the PSP-observed solar wind. We validate our results with the solar wind speed and magnetic polarity observed at PSP. When modeling results are very reliable, we derive time series of model-derived spacecraft separation from the heliospheric current sheet, magnetic expansion factor, coronal hole boundary distance, and photospheric field strength along the field lines estimated to be connected to the spacecraft. We present new results for Encounter 1, which show time evolution of the far-side mid-latitude coronal hole that PSP corotates with. We discuss how this evolution coincides with solar wind speed, density, and temperature observed at the spacecraft. During Encounter 2, a new active region emerges on the solar far side, making it difficult to model. We show that ADAPT-WSA output agrees well with PSP observations once this active region rotates onto the near side, allowing us to reliably estimate the solar wind sources retrospectively for most of the encounter. We close with ways in which coronal modeling enables scientific interpretation of these encounters that would otherwise not have been possible.

Solar wind↗

NASA NTRS2012

Anomalously Weak Solar Convection

Convection in the solar interior is thought to comprise structures on a spectrum of scales. This conclusion emerges from phenomenological studies and numerical simulations, though neither covers the proper range of dynamical parameters of solar convection. Here, we analyze observations of the wavefield in the solar photosphere using techniques of time-distance helioseismology to image flows in the solar interior. We downsample and synthesize 900 billion wavefield observations to produce 3 billion cross-correlations, which we average and fit, measuring 5 million wave travel times. Using these travel times, we deduce the underlying flow systems and study their statistics to bound convective velocity magnitudes in the solar interior, as a function of depth and spherical- harmonic degree l..Within the wavenumber band l < 60, convective velocities are 20-100 times weaker than current theoretical estimates. This constraint suggests the prevalence of a different paradigm of turbulence from that predicted by existing models, prompting the question: what mechanism transports the heat flux of a solar luminosity outwards? Advection is dominated by Coriolis forces for wavenumbers l < 60, with Rossby numbers smaller than approximately 10(exp −2) at r∕R-solar = 0.96, suggesting that the Sun may be a much faster rotator than previously thought, and that large-scale convection may be quasi-geostrophic. The fact that isorotation contours in the Sun are not coaligned with the axis of rotation suggests the presence of a latitudinal entropy gradient.

Sun↗

NASA NTRS1985

The excitation of helium resonance lines in solar flares

Helium resonance line intensities are calculated for a set of six flare models corresponding to two rates of heating and three widely varying incident fluxes of soft X-rays. The differing ionization and excitation equilibria produced by these models, the processes which dominate the various cases, and the predicted helium line spectra are examined. The line intensities and their ratios are compared with values derived from Skylab NRL spectroheliograms for a class M flare, thus determining which of these models most nearly represents the density vs temperature structure and soft X-ray flux in the flaring solar transition region, and the temperature and dominant mechanaism of formation of the helium line spectrum during a flare.

Porter, J. G.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Multi-Satellite Measurements and Model Predictions of Mesospheric and Upper Stratospheric Influences from the Very Large July 14-16, 2000, Solar Proton Event

A large solar flare with an associated coronal mass ejection occurred in mid-July and caused a very large solar proton event at the earth in the time period July 14-16, 2000. So far this is the largest solar storm of solar cycle 23. The solar proton fluxes were measured by instruments aboard the GOES-10 satellite and used in our proton energy deposition model to help quantify the energy input to the middle atmosphere during this large solar event. Using this computed energy deposition in the GSFC 2D atmospheric model resulted in a prediction of $>$ 20\% increases in HO$-(x)$ (H, OH, HO$-(2)$) and $>$ 100\% increases in NO$-(x)$ (N, NO, NO$-(2)$) constituents in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere at polar latitudes ($>$ 60 degrees geomagnetic). Both the HO$-(x)$ and NO$_fx)$ increases impacted ozone. Large atmospheric impacts have been measured with the NOAA 14 SBUV/2 instrument (0$_(3)$), the UARS HALOE instrument (NO, NO$-(2)$, 0$-(3)$), and the POAM III instrument (0$_{3}$, NO$-(2)$). Preliminary analysis indicates that measured (SBUV/2) and modelled 0$_{3}$ decreases from this solar event are generally in agreement in the Northern Hemisphere. Short-term ozone changes (during the event) indicate $\sim$ 15% reduction at 2 hPa ($\sim$ 45 km) up to $\sim$ 40% reduction at 0.5 hPa ($\sim$ 55 km). A longer-term ozone depletion of $\sim$ 5% is indicated between 4 and 2 hPa ($\sim$ 40-45 km). The middle atmospheric changes caused by this solar event were very large and occurred fairly quickly ($\sim$ 1-2 days). Such a significant natural perturbation provides a good test of our understanding of the middle atmosphere. The measured and modelled impacts of this solar event will be compared and discussed in this paper.

Jackman, Charles H.↗