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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17

Alternating Direction Decomposition with Strong Bounding and Convexification (ADDSBC) for Solving Security Constrained AC Unit Commitment Problems

This project aims to develop efficient and robust computational methods for solving the security-constrained unit commitment and alternating current optimal power flow problem (SC-UC-ACOPF). The SC-UC-ACOPF problem is at the center of the short-term operation of the U.S. Power Grid. It is solved every week, every day, and every 10 minutes to plan for the optimal action of electricity generation and consumption by minimizing the generation cost and maintaining power system reliability against potential disruptions of equipment failures. In mathematical terms, SC-UC-ACOPF is a challenging large-scale mixed-integer nonlinear optimization model. This means that the decisions involve both discrete variables, e.g. the turning on and off of generators and switching of transmission lines and transformers, and continuous decisions, e.g. the amount of energy generated by each generator and the power flows in the power grid. The physics of the power flow is described by nonlinear equations involving real and reactive power and bus voltages. Another key feature is the large number of contingencies, i.e. the system needs to stay reliable in face of failure of any one equipment, such as transmission lines and generators. The U.S. power grids are extremely complicated and large scale with more than 5,000 generators, 50,000 buses, and 100,000 high-voltage transmission lines, making the SC-UC-ACOPF a very large-scale computation challenge. The research developed in this project aims to solve the SC-UC-ACOPF problems in the three timescales, i.e. weekly, daily, and every 10-min. The proposed computational methods are built on a principled algorithmic approach of decomposition and penalization. More specifically, the algorithm develops spatial and temporal decomposition by exploiting the strong temporal coupling and weak spatial coupling of the UC problem and the complementary feature, i.e. weak temporal coupling and strong spatial coupling of the ACOPF problem. The algorithm also leverages recent progresses in strong convex relaxation of ACOPF. A unique feature of the proposed approach is that it generates a valid, global upper bound on the optimal maximum profit. In this way, a global optimality gap is available to measure the quality of the solution. To further speed up computation, the research team has developed a plethora of effective heuristics to strengthen the iterative penalty-based decomposition framework. For instance, a heuristic is developed to construct inner approximations of the time coupling constraints within the time decoupled problems. Contingencies are pre-screened and low-rank matrix computation is exploited to find the almost unique solution to each contingency. A novel heuristic for line switching is proposed and tested with positive impacts on instances where line switching is beneficial. Taking a systematic approach and carefully handling every detail of the problem pays off. The TIM-GO’s performance throughout the trials and the final event was stellar. TIM-GO garnered the second highest total prize money and is ranked in the top three positions across all categories of comparison.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Novel Integrated Fermentation Process with Engineered Microbial Consortia for Butanol Production from Lignocellulose Sugars without CO 2 Emission

The goal of this project was to develop a synthetic microbial consortium consisting of a lactic acid bacterium, a carboxydotrophic acetogen, and a solventogenic clostridia for the production of n butanol, an advanced biofuel and industrial chemical, from lignocellulose sugars (mainly glucose and xylose) and formate (produced from CO 2 by electrochemical reduction) in an integrated bioprocess (biorefinery), which can provide an effective solution to the technical challenges in developing energy and carbon optimized synthesis for the bioeconomy and achieve the program objectives of ARPA-E. The project focused on the design, modeling and construction of synthetic microbial consortia consisting of three bacterial species to maximize carbon conversion and butanol production with a 100% theoretical product yield from glucose and zero or negative CO 2 emission.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Regulators’ Financial Toolbox: Leveraging Software as a Service, Cloud Computing, and Artificial Intelligence in Electric Utilities

The rapid evolution of Software as a Service (SaaS), cloud computing, and artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming the electric utility industry, reshaping operations, customer engagement, and financial models. This webinar introduced how utilities can deploy advanced software solutions and AI-driven analytics to improve grid efficiency, optimize asset management, and accurately forecast demand.

Bartlett, Phillip↗

Co-Simulation Meets AI: MCP-Driven Power System Analysis

GridGPT, a fine-tuned Generative AI model is designed for on-premise use in grid control rooms. This presentation will demonstrate how eGridGPT can seamlessly integrate with control room solutions to offer operators, engineers, and corporate users enhanced guidance and decision support. It is to show how this innovative AI solution can improve state estimation, boost variable energy forecasting, and optimize grid operations. By leveraging eGridGPT's unique features, audience will learn to unlock new levels of automation, predictive analytics, and reliability within their power systems, ultimately leading to reduced downtime and improved operational efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Hydrogen, Methane, Brine Flow Behavior, and Saturation in Sandstone Cores During H 2 and CH 4 Injection and Displacement

Large-scale underground hydrogen storage (UHS) is a critical component in the emerging hydrogen economy. Knowledge of multiphase flow behavior involving hydrogen in storage reservoir formations is crucial to characterizing hydrogen transport properties and essential for the deliverability and storage operations of UHS. There are still many gaps in fully understanding hydrogen–methane–brine multiphase phase flow that require further investigation. In this work, H 2 and CH 4 were injected through brine-saturated sandstone cores using a tri-axial core holder system fitted with flow rate meters and pressure transducers, while the effluent gas concentrations were analyzed using an online micro gas chromatograph. Brine displacement, permeability, and gas breakthrough curves were measured. We studied the flow behavior of hydrogen and methane in sandstone cores through testing brine displacement by gas injection and comparing the hydrogen displacement of methane with the methane displacement of hydrogen. We also tested the differences between horizontal and vertical flow in brine displacement. The results showed that brine displacement was more efficient in a core with higher permeability and porosity, resulting in a higher initial gas saturation. A higher gas injection rate brought about faster gas breakthrough measured by pore volume and sharper concentration curves. Hydrogen did not exhibit abnormal flow in the sandstone when the flow was horizontal and downward vertical. Gas overriding was observed in brine displacements when the flow was horizontal, with hydrogen showing this behavior more profoundly compared to methane. Downward vertical gas injection induced higher efficiency brine displacement compared to horizontal displacement and resulted in a higher initial gas saturation in the sandstone cores. These findings address critical knowledge gaps regarding gas flow patterns and displacement behaviors during hydrogen injection and recovery phases in UHS facilities using methane as the cushion gas. The insights from this research offer valuable guidance for optimizing UHS systems, ensuring operational efficiency, and advancing sustainable energy solutions in alignment with decarbonization goals.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Designing an Optimal Sensor Network via Minimizing Information Loss

Optimal experimental design is a classic topic in statistics, with many well-studied problems, applications, and solutions. The design problem we study is the placement of sensors to monitor spatiotemporal processes, explicitly accounting for the temporal dimension in our modeling and optimization. We observe that recent advancements in computational sciences often yield large datasets based on physics-based simulations, which are rarely leveraged in experimental design. We introduce a novel model-based sensor placement criterion, along with a highly-efficient optimization algorithm, which integrates physics-based simulations and Bayesian experimental design principles to identify sensor networks that “minimize information loss” from simulated data. Our technique relies on sparse variational inference and (separable) Gauss-Markov priors, and thus may adapt many techniques from Bayesian experimental design. We validate our method through a case study monitoring air temperature in Phoenix, Arizona, using state-of-the-art physics-based simulations. Our results show our framework to be superior to random or quasi-random sampling, particularly with a limited number of sensors. We conclude by discussing practical considerations and implications of our framework, including more complex modeling tools and real-world deployments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Passive Energy-Saving Solutions for Clothes Dryers: A Modeling and Experimental Study for Improved Efficiency and Affordability

Dryers are integral appliances in modern households, yet their significant power consumption remains a critical challenge for reducing energy bills and upgrades. This work presents the outcomes of a comprehensive investigation aimed at lowering the operating energy costs of the dryer through modeling and experimental approaches. Specifically, the objectives of this research are twofold: (1) to reduce energy consumption without negatively impacting drying performance or time; and (2) to ensure affordability by developing retrofittable solutions characterized by low cost and a quick payback period. These strategies promise universal applicability to all dryer categories, encompassing both gas and electric models, by tackling core issues such as unnecessary heat loss and excess energy supply, both prevalent across dryer designs. Our methodology combines robust modeling frameworks and experimental validation to target energy efficiency improvements through three primary pathways: (1) effective heat loss management using ultralow-cost insulation materials tailored for dryer systems; (2) heat management across the drying cycle, facilitated by passive heat transfer mechanisms, and (3) optimization of heat supply to the load to ensure precise energy delivery, minimizing waste. These innovations are designed to seamlessly integrate with existing dryer configurations, providing a scalable and retrofittable solution that ensures affordability without requiring substantial redesigns or expensive components. Using these methods, the study demonstrates improvement opportunities in dryer energy consumption while maintaining the desired performance. The modeling component utilizes computational simulations to evaluate the thermal and energy performance of these innovations under varied operational conditions, providing foundational insights for experimental design. By addressing critical areas such as heat loss, energy recovery, and supply optimization, this work proposes impactful solutions for lowering the energy costs in domestic clothes dryers. The ultralow-cost, retrofittable nature of the proposed strategies ensures widespread adoption potential across diverse dryer categories, making significant strides toward affordable household energy practices.

Cheekatamarla, Praveen [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000248827↗

Chelation ion chromatography as an automated, and cost-effective analytical technique for REE determination: method development and applications

Rare earth elements (REEs), as critical minerals, have important uses in modern energy and technologies, yet are vulnerable to potential supply chain disruptions. To establish domestic REE supply chain, efficient REE detection methods for resource characterization and mineral processing will be needed to accelerate innovations for domestic REE recovery. This study developed a rapid, novel, and cost-effective for REE detection method using ion chromatography (IC) for aqueous samples. Various REE-targeted eluent gradients and post-column agent compositions were tested on the chelation ion chromatography (CIC) with UV-vis detector for optimal separation and quantification of REEs within approximately 20 min. The single-channel pump to deliver the post-column solution to UV-vis detector was replaced with a 4-channel gradient pump, to increase operation and maintenance efficiencies. After method optimization, resulting calibration curves for more than ten REEs achieved high coefficients of determination (R2>0.999) and low relatively standard deviations (below 3.24%), demonstrating sub-ppm level detection limits (0.0897 to 0.1149 mg/L). The reliability of the CIC method was validated through comparison with inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS), showing strong agreement in REE recovery from certified standards. The impact of metal ions and salts on REE recovery using CIC was also systematically investigated. CIC consistently exhibited reliable performance in the presence of salt solutions such as NaCl and Na₂SO₄ (up to 10,000 mg/L). Our study also found the presence of high concentrations of Al ions (at 10,000 mg/L) significantly influenced REE determination, and elevated concentrations of Ca ions affected the recovery of specific REEs, including La, Ce, and Pr. The CIC method was further tested on REE-containing eluents from solvent extraction tests out of fly ash leachates. REE detection from these real processing fluids were reported to achieve 90% to 100% recovery rate from our IC method, compared to ICP-MS results. This study underscores the potential of CIC as a reliable and efficient alternative for REE determination in complex matrices. It also highlights the importance of minimizing select interfering metal ions in solutions to ensure accurate results. The REE CIC method presents a promising, low-maintenance, salt-tolerant, and cost-effective alternative to traditional analytical methods for REE analysis.

detection of rare earth elements (REE)↗

ARCS: Agentic Retrieval-Augmented Code Synthesis with Iterative Refinement

Agentic Retrieval-Augmented Code Synthesis with Iterative RefinementIn supercomputing, efficient and optimized code generation is essential to leverage high-performance systems effectively. We have developed Agentic Retrieval-Augmented Code Synthesis (ARCS), an advanced framework for accurate, robust, and efficient code generation, completion, and translation. ARCS integrates Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) with Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning to systematically break down and iteratively refine complex programming tasks. An agent-based RAG mechanism retrieves relevant code snippets, while real-time execution feedback drives the synthesis of candidate solutions. This process is formalized as a state-action search tree optimization, balancing code correctness with editing efficiency. Evaluations on the Geeks4Geeks and HumanEval benchmarks demonstrate that ARCS significantly outperforms traditional prompting methods in translation and generation quality. By enabling scalable and precise code synthesis, ARCS offers transformative potential for automating and optimizing code development in supercomputing applications, enhancing computational resource utilization

Bhattarai, Manish [Los Alamos National Labs]↗

Impact of electrolyte solutions on carbon dioxide fixation in single chamber Al–CO 2 battery

Governments and research & development (R&D) organizations are actively initiating various programs and research strategies for CO 2 capture, its utilization, and integration with long duration energy storage from renewable sources worldwide. In line with the carbon capture goals, here we report a novel electrochemical Al-CO 2 battery cell, that can simultaneously capture CO 2 and convert it into value-added products, in addition to long-duration energy generation and storage. Here, this innovative approach employs cost-effective Al metal as an anode and an in-house synthesized Ni–Fe based bimetallic double hydroxide catalyst as the cathode, with meticulously optimized compositions and morphologies. We explore the impact of different aqueous electrolyte solutions compositions on the cell performance, demonstrating up to 10 h of stable long duration energy storage with a stable voltage profile. The cell exhibits low polarization even at high current densities of up to 12 mA cm -2 and maintains stable cycling over 500 h. Through Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), Raman spectroscopy, X-ray Diffraction and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) analysis, we determined that the discharge product is either NaAlCO 3 (OH) 2 or KAlCO 3 (OH) 2 , distinct from the Al 2 (CO 3 ) 3 typically reported in conventional Al–CO 2 batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Enabling kilometer-scale E3SM land model simulation over North America: A new integrated framework solution

This study introduces a novel framework designed to enhance the performance, scalability, and portability of the kilometer-scale E3SM Land Model (km-ELM) within the E3SM modeling infrastructure. By seamlessly integrating cutting-edge data tools, we address existing challenges such as slow performance, limited scalability, and difficulties in software integration in current data-driven ELM simulation over large geographic areas. Our innovative approach leverages the KiloCraft data toolkit to generate unified inputs for simulations ranging from a single-cite case, to a 72,083-cell regional case to a continental configuration encompassing 21.6 million land grid cells at a 1 km × 1 km resolution. We conduct extensive strong- and weak-scaling experiments on three state-of-the-art supercomputers, utilizing up to 100,800 CPU cores across 2400 compute nodes to evaluate end-to-end metrics including wall-clock time, simulation-years-per-day (SYPD), initialization costs, and I/O throughput. Our results reveal the land (LND) component’s efficient scaling, demonstrating near-ideal weak scaling and strong-scaling parallel efficiencies reaching up to 87% at 50,400 cores. We confirm portability and reproducibility through bitwise-equivalent outputs across different machines using identical inputs over supported machines. Notably, at extreme scales, we identify I/O as a critical bottleneck and that leads to effective solution with the SCORPIO/ADIOS stack. Collectively, these findings validate the deployment of km-ELM at a continental scale with high parallel efficiency and provide essential guidance on configuration, decomposition, and I/O settings for optimized kilometer-scale land simulations in E3SM. This work emphasizes the innovative design and practical solutions that enhance the operational capabilities of km-ELM, focusing on software performance and scalability while leaving detailed scientific evaluations of simulated land processes for future investigations.

E3SM land model (ELM), km-ELM, scalability, perfor↗

Grid-Aware Charging and Operational Optimization for Mixed-Fleet Public Transit

The rapid growth of urban populations and the increasing need for sustainable transportation solutions have prompted a shift towards electric buses in public transit systems. However, the effective management of mixed fleets consisting of both electric and diesel buses poses significant operational challenges. One major challenge is coping with dynamic electricity pricing, where charging costs vary throughout the day. Transit agencies must optimize charging assignments in response to such dynamism while accounting for secondary considerations such as seating constraints. This paper presents a comprehensive mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model to address these challenges by jointly optimizing charging schedules and trip assignments for mixed (electric and diesel bus) fleets while considering factors such as dynamic electricity pricing, vehicle capacity, and route constraints. We address the potential computational intractability of the MILP formulation, which can arise even with relatively small fleets, by employing a hierarchical approach tailored to the fleet composition. By using real-world data from the city of Chattanooga, Tennessee, USA, we show that our approach can result in significant savings in the operating costs of the mixed transit fleets.

Sen, Rishav↗

Global optimization of harmonic oscillator basis in covariant density functional theory

The present investigation focuses on the improvement of the accuracy of the description of binding energies within moderately sized fermionic basis. Using the solutions corresponding to infinite fermionic basis it was shown that in the case of meson exchange (ME) covariant energy density functionals (CEDFs) the global accuracy of the description of binding energies in the finite $N_F$ = 16 - 20 bases can be drastically (by a factor ranging from ~3 up to ~9 dependent on the functional and $N_F$) improved by a global optimization of oscillator frequency of the basis. This is a consequence of the unique feature of the ME functionals in which with increasing fermionic basis size fermionic and mesonic energies approach the exact (infinite basis) solution from above and below, respectively. As a consequence, an optimal oscillator frequency $\hbar\omega_0$ of the basis can be defined which provides an accurate reproduction of exact total binding energies by the ones calculated in truncated basis. This leads to a very high accuracy of the calculations in moderately sized $N_F=20$ basis when mass dependent oscillator frequency is used: global rms differences $\delta B_{rms}$ between the binding energies calculated in infinite and truncated bases are only 0.025 MeV and 0.031 MeV for the NL5(Z) and DD-MEZ functionals, respectively. Optimized values of the oscillator frequency $\hbar\omega_0$ are provided for three major classes of CEDFs, i.e. for density dependent meson exchange functionals, nonlinear meson exchange ones and point coupling functionals.

Binding energy & masses↗

Microextraction-Single Particle-Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry for the Direct Analysis of Nanoparticles on Surfaces

A novel employment of single particle-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (SP-ICP-MS) was developed, where a microextraction (ME) probe is used to sample nanoparticles from a surface and analyze them in a single analytical step. The effects of several parameters on the performance of ME-SP-ICP-MS were investigated, including the flow rate, choice of carrier solution, particle size, and the design of the microextraction probe head itself. The optimized ME-SP-ICP-MS technique was used to compare the extraction efficiency (EE, defined as the ratio of particles measured to particles deposited on the surface) of the commercial probe head to a newly designed SP polyether ether ketone (PEEK) probe head. The SP PEEK probe head was found to have increased EE compared to the commercial probe head (8.5 ± 3% vs 3.9 ± 3%, respectively). Increasing the carrier solution flow rate was found to decrease the total analysis time at the cost of decreasing EE. Extraction efficiencies for ME-SP-ICP-MS were typically 4–10%, which is similar to transport efficiencies (1–10%) for conventional SP-ICP-MS. Lastly, ME-SP-ICP-MS was employed for the analysis of nano- and microparticles. The sizes of gold nanoparticles, 30 ± 3 and 51 ± 1.9 nm (certified sizes), and iron-based microparticles, 1000 ± 50 nm (certified size), were accurately determined to be 32.2 ± 2.5, 50.8 ± 3.4, and 1030 ± 57 nm, respectively, by ME-SP-ICP-MS. Further, this work demonstrates the potential of ME-SP-ICP-MS for the direct analysis of particles on common collection surfaces (GSR tabs, carbon planchettes, etc.) while retaining spatial information on particle distribution across the surface.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Microstructural characterization and equibiaxial flexural strength of CeO 2 and Ti-doped CeO 2

In this study, the synthesis of CeO 2 and titanium dioxide (TiO 2 ) doped CeO 2 (TDC) monoliths are investigated, and their fracture strength is assessed using an equibiaxial flexure testing technique at room temperature. Pellets were synthesized using conventional powder processing and sintering methods to produce the desired characteristics. The TiO 2 dopant concentration was optimized at 0.1 wt % TiO 2 to obtain dense, solid-solution pellets with an enhanced grain microstructure. A ball-on-ring fixture was used to obtain the TRS and Weibull parameters of over 30 pellets for CeO 2 and 0.1 wt % TDC to compare fracture behavior. The TRS of CeO 2 pellets ranged from 88 to 160 MPa and the TRS of 0.1 wt % TDC pellets ranged from 102 to 171 MPa, both being consistent with published values. Weibull parameters, such as characteristic strength and Weibull modulus, were extracted as 129 MPa and 8.5 for CeO 2 and 150 MPa and 9.3 for 0.1 wt % TDC, respectively. Although Hertzian contact damage was observed on compressive surfaces, failure initiation occurred on the tensile surfaces of both types of samples. Fracture surface analysis for CeO 2 indicated a predominantly intergranular fracture while 0.1 wt % TDC had a predominantly transgranular fracture mode. Finally, the TRS of 0.1 wt % TDC resulted in increased Weibull parameters when compared to CeO 2 , indicating sample chemistry and microstructure impact mechanical behavior for these samples.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NSTX-U research advancing the physics of spherical tokamaks

Abstract The objectives of NSTX-U research are to reinforce the advantages of STs while addressing the challenges. To extend confinement physics of low- A , high beta plasmas to lower collisionality levels, understanding of the transport mechanisms that set confinement performance and pedestal profiles is being advanced through gyrokinetic simulations, reduced model development, and comparison to NSTX experiment, as well as improved simulation of RF heating. To develop stable non-inductive scenarios needed for steady-state operation, various performance-limiting modes of instability were studied, including MHD, tearing modes, and energetic particle instabilities. Predictive tools were developed, covering disruptions, runaway electrons, equilibrium reconstruction, and control tools. To develop power and particle handling techniques to optimize plasma exhaust in high performance scenarios, innovative lithium-based solutions are being developed to handle the very high heat flux levels that the increased heating power and compact geometry of NSTX-U will produce, and will be seen in future STs. Predictive capabilities accounting for plasma phenomena, like edge harmonic oscillations, ELMs, and blobs, are being tested and improved. In these ways, NSTX-U researchers are advancing the physics understanding of ST plasmas to maximize the benefit that will be gained from further NSTX-U experiments and to increase confidence in projections to future devices.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

ORCHA: A performance portability system for extreme heterogeneity

Heterogeneity is the prevalent trend in the rapidly evolving high-performance computing (HPC) landscape in both hardware and application software. The diversity in hardware platforms, currently comprising various accelerators and a future possibility of specializable chiplets, poses a significant challenge for scientific software developers aiming to harness optimal performance across different computing platforms while maintaining the quality of solutions when their applications are simultaneously growing more complex. Code synthesis and code generation can provide mechanisms to mitigate this challenge. We have developed a divide and conquer approach where different aspects of performance are handled by different stand-alone tools that are interfaced with the application through generated code. This portability system, ORCHA, enables users to configure and orchestrate their computations among available resources on a platform by specifying a high-level recipe, thereby permitting a many-to-many paradigm where each recipe results in a different variant of the application. The core design goal is to let users decide the application’s hardware mapping and orchestration by editing only the high-level recipe—without modifying the maintained source code or binding the application to a particular runtime system. Tools in ORCHA distribution are: CG-Kit for translating the recipe into an execution graph; Milhoja to execute the graph by orchestrating data and task movement among hardware resources; and Macroprocessor that enables users to define their own code-shorthand for higher composability and easier management of code variants. Additionally, the design of ORCHA permits tools to work in a plug-and-play mode where the application can build and run without CG-Kit and Milhoja, and either tool can be swapped out for other tools with similar capabilities by modifying the code generation portion of ORCHA. In this paper, we describe the design of ORCHA and the role that code-generation plays in isolating applications from tools. We demonstrate the breadth of configurations ORCHA enables with a case study in which an application configuration is realized on three distinct hardware mappings—a GPU-centric, a CPU/GPU balanced, and a CPU/GPU concurrent layouts by using different recipes.

Lee, Youngjun↗

Thermal Reservoir Networks for Modularly Expandable Thermal Microgrids

The Department of Defense (DoD) faces the substantial challenge of cost-effectively retrofitting one to two installations per month, each comprising approximately 1,000 buildings, to improve resilience, reduce energy consumption, and enhance energy supply security. Achieving these objectives requires optimal system selection and effective risk mitigation during system integration. To address this need, we introduce Platform-Based Design (PBD), a structured, hierarchical methodology adapted from other industrial sectors to the domain of energy system retrofits. We demonstrate the effectiveness of PBD through a techno-economic feasibility study comparing geothermal-coupled thermal energy networks (TENs) with conventional energy systems for heating, cooling, and powering 17 buildings at Joint Base Andrews (JBA) in Maryland. Our analysis illustrates that the PBD approach enables rigorous, data-driven, sequential decision making, resulting in a family of Pareto-optimal systems, among which the TEN emerged as the most promising solution. The selected TEN design integrates geothermal borefields, heat recovery heat pumps, photovoltaic (PV) arrays, and battery storage. Compared to the baseline system – gas heating combined with air-source chillers – the proposed TEN reduces annual imported energy by 74% and peak electricity demand by 45%, achieves a levelized cost of energy of $\$0.210$/kWh, and substantially enhances resilience. Life-cycle costs increase by approximately 6%, and initial investment costs are about 2.5 times higher than the baseline. However, if central plant infrastructure, district loops, and utility-scale PV and battery systems are privately funded and operated, the initial investment would fall below the baseline system cost. Critical to achieving these significant performance improvements were detailed nonlinear dynamic simulations coupling geothermal heat transfer, energy system operation, and realistic feedback control logic. These simulations identified essential design modifications and control strategy refinements that substantially reduced energy use, peak demand, and compressor shortcycling, thereby improving durability and reliability—issues that would have been significantly more expensive to resolve during operation. Additionally, the verification step highlighted sensitivities to key design parameters that could reduce initial investment by approximately $\$2$ million and reduce annual life-cycle costs more than $\$300,000$. We recommend adopting the PBD methodology for future feasibility studies and TEN pilot projects to gain valuable operational experience. Furthermore, we recommend that DoD invest in transferring and scaling the PBD methodology to other installations. This entails developing standardized computational frameworks and component libraries as well as training industry in conducting PBD. Such investments would enable rapid, robust, reliable, and cost-effective retrofits, supporting DoD’s ambitious energy system modernization goals.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗