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At least 307 records · Page 17

Variability of Antarctic Sea Ice 1979-1998

The principal characteristics of the variability of Antarctic sea ice cover as previously described from satellite passive-microwave observations are also evident in a systematically-calibrated and analyzed data set for 20.2 years (1979-1998). The total Antarctic sea ice extent (concentration > 15 %) increased by 13,440 +/- 4180 sq km/year (+1.18 +/- 0.37%/decade). The area of sea ice within the extent boundary increased by 16,960 +/- 3,840 sq km/year (+1.96 +/- 0.44%/decade). Regionally, the trends in extent are positive in the Weddell Sea (1.5 +/- 0.9%/decade), Pacific Ocean (2.4 +/- 1.4%/decade), and Ross (6.9 +/- 1.1 %/decade) sectors, slightly negative in the Indian Ocean (-1.5 +/- 1.8%/decade, and strongly negative in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Seas sector (-9.5 +/- 1.5%/decade). For the entire ice pack, small ice increases occur in all seasons with the largest increase during autumn. On a regional basis, the trends differ season to season. During summer and fall, the trends are positive or near zero in all sectors except the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Seas sector. During winter and spring, the trends are negative or near zero in all sectors except the Ross Sea, which has positive trends in all seasons. Components of interannual variability with periods of about 3 to 5 years are regionally large, but tend to counterbalance each other in the total ice pack. The interannual variability of the annual mean sea-ice extent is only 1.6% overall, compared to 5% to 9% in each of five regional sectors. Analysis of the relation between regional sea ice extents and spatially-averaged surface temperatures over the ice pack gives an overall sensitivity between winter ice cover and temperature of -0.7% change in sea ice extent per K. For summer, some regional ice extents vary positively with temperature and others negatively. The observed increase in Antarctic sea ice cover is counter to the observed decreases in the Arctic. It is also qualitatively consistent with the counterintuitive prediction of a global atmospheric-ocean model of increasing sea ice around Antarctica with climate warming due to the stabilizing effects of increased snowfall on the Southern Ocean.

Zwally, H. Jay↗

Modeling South Pacific Ice-Ocean Interactions in the Global Climate System

The objective of this project has been to improve the modeling of interactions between large Antarctic ice shelves and adjacent regions of the Southern Ocean. Our larger goal is to gain a better understanding of the extent to which the ocean controls ice shelf attrition, thereby influencing the size and dynamics of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Melting and freezing under ice shelves also impacts seawater properties, regional upwelling and sinking and the larger-scale ocean circulation. Modifying an isopycnal coordinate general circulation model for use in sub-ice shelf cavities, we found that the abrupt change in water column thickness at an ice shelf front does not form a strong barrier to buoyancy-driven circulation across the front. Outflow along the ice shelf base, driven by melting of the thickest ice, is balanced by deep inflow. Substantial effort was focused on the Filchner-Ronne cavity, where other models have been applied and time-series records are available from instruments suspended beneath the ice. A model comparison indicated that observed changes in the production of High Salinity Shelf Water could have a major impact on circulation within the cavity. This water propagates into the cavity with an asymmetric seasonal signal that has similar phasing and shape in the model and observations, and can be related to winter production at the sea surface. Even remote parts of the sub-ice shelf cavity are impacted by external forcing on sub-annual time scales. This shows that cavity circulations and products, and therefore cavity shape, will respond to interannual variability in sea ice production and longer-term climate change. The isopycnal model gives generally lower net melt rates than have been obtained from other models and oceanographic data, perhaps due to its boundary layer formulation, or the lack of tidal forcing. Work continues on a manuscript describing the Ross cavity results.

Holland, David M.↗

Remote Sensing of Particulate Organic Carbon Pools in the High-Latitude Oceans

The general goal of this project was to characterize spatial distributions at basin scales and variability on monthly to interannual timescales of particulate organic carbon (POC) in the high-latitude oceans. The primary objectives were: (1) To collect in situ data in the north polar waters of the Atlantic and in the Southern Ocean, necessary for the derivation of POC ocean color algorithms for these regions. (2) To derive regional POC algorithms and refine existing regional chlorophyll (Chl) algorithms, to develop understanding of processes that control bio-optical relationships underlying ocean color algorithms for POC and Chl, and to explain bio-optical differentiation between the examined polar regions and within the regions. (3) To determine basin-scale spatial patterns and temporal variability on monthly to interannual scales in satellite-derived estimates of POC and Chl pools in the investigated regions for the period of time covered by SeaWiFS and MODIS missions.

Stramski, Dariusz↗

MPAS - Ocean Simulation Quality for Variable-Resolution North American Coastal Meshes

Climate model components utilizing unstructured meshes enable variableresolution, regionally enhanced simulations within global domains. Here we investigate the relationship between mesh quality and simulation statistics using the JIGSAW unstructured meshing library and the Model for Prediction Across ScalesOcean (MPASOcean) with a focus on Gulf Stream dynamics. In the base configuration, the refined region employs 8 km cells that extend 400 km from the coast of North America. This coastal refined region is embedded within a lowresolution global domain, with cell size varying latitudinally between 30 and 60 km. The resolution transition region between the refined region and background mesh is 600 km wide. Three sensitivity tests are conducted: 1) the quality of meshes is intentionally degraded so that horizontal cells are progressively more distorted; 2) the transition region from high to low resolution is steepened; and 3) resolution of the coastal refinement region is varied from 30 km to 8 km. Overall, the ocean simulations are shown to be robust to mesh resolution and quality alterations. Meshes that are substantially degraded still produce realistic currents, with Southern Ocean transports within 0.4% and Gulf Stream transports within 12% of highquality mesh results. The narrowest transition case of 100 km did not produce any spurious effects. Refined regions with high resolution produce eddy kinetic energy and sea surface height variability that are similar to the highresolution reference simulation. These results provide heuristics for the design criteria of variableresolution climate model domains.

Hoch, Kristin E.↗

A Preliminary Model Study of the Large-Scale Seasonal Cycle in Bottom Pressure Over the Global Ocean

Output from the primitive equation model of Semtner and Chervin is used to examine the seasonal cycle in bottom pressure (Pb) over the global ocean. Effects of the volume-conserving formulation of the model on the calculation Of Pb are considered. The estimated seasonal, large-scale Pb signals have amplitudes ranging from less than 1 cm over most of the deep ocean to several centimeters over shallow, boundary regions. Variability generally increases toward the western sides of the basins, and is also larger in some Southern Ocean regions. An oscillation between subtropical and higher latitudes in the North Pacific is clear. Comparison with barotropic simulations indicates that, on basin scales, seasonal Pb variability is related to barotropic dynamics and the seasonal cycle in Ekman pumping, and results from a small, net residual in mass divergence from the balance between Ekman and Sverdrup flows.

Ponte, Rui M.↗

The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) Contribution to CMIP6: Investigation of Sea-Level and Ocean Climate Change in Response to CO2 Forcing

The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) aims to investigate the spread in simulations of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO2 forcing by atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). It is particularly motivated by the uncertainties in projections of ocean heat uptake, global-mean sealevel rise due to thermal expansion and the geographical patterns of sea-level change due to ocean density and circulation change. FAFMIP has three tier-1 experiments, in which prescribed surface flux perturbations of momentum, heat and freshwater respectively are applied to the ocean in separate AOGCM simulations. All other conditions are as in the pre-industrial control. The prescribed fields are typical of pattern and magnitude of changes in these fluxes projected by AOGCMs for doubled CO2 concentration. Five groups have tested the experimental design with existing AOGCMs. Their results show diversity in the pattern and magnitude of changes, with some common qualitative features. Heat and water flux perturbation cause the dipole in sea-level change in the North Atlantic, while momentum and heat flux perturbation cause the gradient across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) declines in response to the heat flux perturbation, and there is a strong positive feedback on this effect due to the consequent cooling of sea-surface temperature in the North Atlantic, which enhances the local heat input to the ocean. The momentum and water flux perturbations do not substantially affect the AMOC. Heat is taken up largely as a passive tracer in the Southern Ocean, which is the region of greatest heat input, while the weakening of the AMOC causes redistribution of heat towards lower latitudes. Future analysis of these and other phenomena with the wider range of CMIP6 FAFMIP AOGCMs will benefit from new diagnostics of temperature and salinity tendencies, which will enable investigation of the model spread in behaviour in terms of physical processes as formulated in the models.

thermosteric sea-level change↗

Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions Modulate Irrigation's Climate Impacts

Numerous studies have focused on the local and regional climate effects of irrigated agriculture and other land cover and land use change (LCLUC) phenomena, but there are few studies on the role of ocean- atmosphere interaction in modulating irrigation climate impacts. Here, we compare simulations with and without interactive sea surface temperatures of the equilibrium effect on climate of contemporary (year 2000) irrigation geographic extent and intensity. We find that ocean-atmosphere interaction does impact the magnitude of global-mean and spatially varying climate impacts, greatly increasing their global reach. Local climate effects in the irrigated regions remain broadly similar, while non-local effects, particularly over the oceans, tend to be larger. The interaction amplifies irrigation-driven standing wave patterns in the tropics and mid-latitudes in our simulations, approximately doubling the global-mean amplitude of surface temperature changes due to irrigation. The fractions of global area experiencing significant annual-mean surface air temperature and precipitation change also approximately double with ocean-atmosphere interaction. Subject to confirmation with other models, these findings imply that LCLUC is an important contributor to climate change even in remote areas such as the Southern Ocean, and that attribution studies should include interactive oceans and need to consider LCLUC, including irrigation, as a truly global forcing that affects climate and the water cycle over ocean as well as land areas.

Air water interactioins↗

Advancing the quantification of aerosol-cloud interactions with the CALIPSO-CloudSat-Aqua/MODIS record

Aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions are assessed over the non-polar ocean using more than 11 years of combined Aqua-MODIS, CALIPSO-CALIOP, and CloudSat products. The analysis first shows the benefit of incorporating vertically resolved aerosol extinction coefficient (σext) in aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) assessments, demonstrating that: σext vertically collocated with the cloud layer () correlates best with cloud droplet number concentration (Nd), column-integrated aerosol optical depth (AOD) cannot explain the Nd variability in the extratropics, and the S-shape of the AOD-Nd relationship reported in previous studies is not replicated when using instead of AOD, with a Nd- linearity more consistent with in-situ studies over the ocean. ACI metric, estimated as the log-scale regression between CALIOP and MODIS Nd reveals that the eastern Pacific is the region with the strongest ACI, followed by the Southern Ocean. The susceptibility of clouds to changes in their liquid water path (LWP) and frequency of precipitation followed a 2-step calculation by combining the Nd- regression (ACI) with the regression between these macrophysical variables and Nd. LWP susceptibility is negative (LWP decreases with aerosol loading) and statistically significant over the eastern Pacific, eastern Atlantic, and extratropics. In contrast, vast areas of the tropical and subtropical ocean feature negligible changes in LWP with aerosol. Precipitation frequency susceptibility is negative, but the values are only significant over the coastal eastern Pacific and Atlantic. The findings suggest that previous modeling assessments relying on AOD may need to be revisited by taking advantage of the synergy between passive and active sensors.

Li, Zhujun↗

Ocean response to surface heat anomalies

An ocean general circulation model (OGCM) is used to study the response of ocean heat and mass transport to positive and negative heat flux anomalies at the ocean surface. As expected, tropical and low-latitude mixed layers respond rapidly (e-folding time about 50-70 years) to external forcing, while the response of the high-latitude mixed layer, especially the Southern Ocean and northern North Atlantic, is very slow (e-folding time greater than 300 yr). The overall response is faster for negative than positive heat flux anomaly at the surface. The meridional heat transport changes by 15% in the first 50 yr in the southern high latitudes. Surprisingly, for the next 400-500 yr the change is very small. The analysis shows that the meridional mass transport intensifies in response to a negative surface heat flux anomaly but weakens in response to a positive heat flux anomaly. For example, at model year 100 the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) is reduced from about 18 Sv to about 10 Sv for the positive heat flux experiment but increased to about 26 Sv for the negative heat flux experiment.

Jiang, Xingjian↗

The Diurnal Cycle of Cloud Profiles over Land and Ocean Between 51degS and 51degN, Seen by the CATS Spaceborne Lidar from the International Space Station

We document, for the first time, how detailed vertical profiles of cloud fraction (CF) change diurnally between 51 deg S and 51 deg N, by taking advantage of 15 months of measurements from the Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS) lidar on the non-sun-synchronous International Space Station (ISS). Over the tropical ocean in summer, we find few high clouds during daytime. At night they become frequent over a large altitude range (11-16 km between 22:00 and 04:00 LT). Over the summer tropical continents, but not over ocean, CATS observations reveal mid-level clouds (4-8 km above sea level or a.s.l.) persisting all day long, with a weak diurnal cycle (minimum at noon). Over the Southern Ocean, diurnal cycles appear for the omnipresent low-level clouds (minimum between noon and 15:00) and high-altitude clouds (minimum between 08:00 and 14:00). Both cycles are time shifted, with high-altitude clouds following the changes in low-altitude clouds by several hours. Over all continents at all latitudes during summer, the low-level clouds develop upwards and reach a maximum occurrence at about 2.5 km a.s.l. in the early afternoon (around 14:00). Our work also shows that (1) the diurnal cycles of vertical profiles derived from CATS are consistent with those from ground-based active sensors on a local scale, (2) the cloud profiles derived from CATS measurements at local times of 01:30 and 13:30 are consistent with those observed from CALIPSO at similar times, and (3) the diurnal cycles of low and high cloud amounts (CAs) derived from CATS are in general in phase with those derived from geostationary imagery but less pronounced. Finally, the diurnal variability of cloud profiles revealed by CATS strongly suggests that CALIPSO measurements at 01:30 and 13:30 document the daily extremes of the cloud fraction profiles over ocean and are more representative of daily averages over land, except at altitudes above 10 km where they capture part of the diurnal variability. These findings are applicable to other instruments with local overpass times similar to CALIPSO's, such as all the other A-Train instruments and the future Earth-CARE mission.

Noel, Vincent↗

On the Effect of Historical SST Patterns on Radiative Feedback

Here, we investigate the dependence of radiative feedback on the pattern of sea-surface temperature (SST) change in fourteen Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs) forced with observed variations in SST and sea-ice over the historical record from 1871 to near-present. We find that over 1871-1980, the Earth warmed with feedbacks largely consistent and strongly correlated with long term climate sensitivity feedbacks (diagnosed from corresponding atmosphere-ocean GCM abrupt 4xCO2 simulations). Post 1980 however, the Earth warmed with unusual trends in tropical Pacific SSTs (enhanced warming in the west, cooling in the east) and cooling in the Southern Ocean that drove climate feedback to be uncorrelated with – and indicating much lower climate sensitivity than – that expected for long-term CO 2 increase. We show that these conclusions are not strongly dependent on the AMIP II SST dataset used to force the AGCMs, though the magnitude of feedback post 1980 is generally smaller in nine AGCMs forced with alternative HadISST1 SST boundary conditions. We quantify a ‘pattern effect’ (defined as the difference between historical and longterm CO 2 feedback) equal to 0.48 ± 0.47 [5-95%] W m -2 K -1 for the time-period 1871-2010 when the AGCMs are forced with HadISST1 SSTs, or 0.70 ± 0.47 [5-95%] W m -2 K -1 when forced with AMIP II SSTs. Assessed changes in the Earth’s historical energy budget agree with the AGCM feedback estimates. Furthermore satellite observations of changes in top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes since 1985 suggest that the pattern effect was particularly strong over recent decades but may be waning post 2014.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Convergent evolution and horizontal gene transfer in Arctic Ocean microalgae

Microbial communities in the world ocean are affected strongly by oceanic circulation, creating characteristic marine biomes. The high connectivity of most of the ocean makes it difficult to disentangle selective retention of colonizing genotypes (with traits suited to biome specific conditions) from evolutionary selection, which would act on founder genotypes over time. The Arctic Ocean is exceptional with limited exchange with other oceans and ice covered since the last ice age. To test whether Arctic microalgal lineages evolved apart from algae in the global ocean, we sequenced four lineages of microalgae isolated from Arctic waters and sea ice. Here we show convergent evolution and highlight geographically limited HGT as an ecological adaptive force in the form of PFAM complements and horizontal acquisition of key adaptive genes. Notably, ice-binding proteins were acquired and horizontally transferred among Arctic strains. A comparison with Tara Oceans metagenomes and metatranscriptomes confirmed mostly Arctic distributions of these IBPs. The phylogeny of Arctic-specific genes indicated that these events were independent of bacterial-sourced HGTs in Antarctic Southern Ocean microalgae.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Importance of Atmospheric Feedbacks in Simulating the Seasonal Cycle of the Antarctic Sea Ice and Its Response to Perturbations

The seasonal cycle of the Antarctic sea ice extent is largely controlled by the evolution of the insolation received at the top of the atmosphere. However, sea ice processes and feedbacks with the ocean and the atmosphere can modulate this seasonal cycle. Here, the atmospheric feedbacks are quantified in a series of idealized sensitivity experiments performed with an eddy-permitting (1/4°) NEMO-LIM3 Southern Ocean configuration, including a representation of ice shelf cavities, in which the model was either driven by an atmospheric reanalysis or coupled to the COSMO-CLM 2 regional atmospheric model. In these experiments, sea ice thermodynamics and dynamics as well as the exchanges with the ocean and atmosphere are strongly perturbed. This perturbation is achieved by modifying snow and ice thermal conductivities, the vertical mixing in the ocean top layers, the effect of freshwater uptake/release upon sea ice growth/melt, ice dynamics and surface albedo. We show that the changes in surface heat fluxes are very different between the configurations driven by the reanalysis and those coupled to the atmosphere. Atmospheric feedbacks enhance the response of the modelled winter ice extent to any of the perturbed processes, and the enhancement is strongest when the albedo is modified. The response of sea ice volume and extent to changes in entrainment of subsurface warm waters to the ocean surface is also greatly amplified by the coupling with the atmosphere. By contrast, the atmospheric feedbacks can damp the impact of the perturbations affecting the heat conductivity through sea ice.

Atmospheric feedbacks↗

What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing?

Abstract Sea levels of different atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level ( ζ ) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a ζ projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of ζ change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and ζ . The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the ζ change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic ζ change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Antarctic shelf ocean warming and sea ice melt affected by projected El Niño changes

Antarctic shelf ocean warming affects melt of ice shelf/sheets and sea ice but projected changes vary vastly across climate models. A projected increase in El Niño variability has been found to slow future mid-latitude Southern Ocean warming but how this impacts the Antarctic shelf ocean is unknown. Here we show that a projected increase in El Niño variability accelerates Antarctic shelf ocean warming, hastening ice shelf/sheet melt but slowing sea ice reduction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

900 km of digital ocean wave spectra from the SEASAT SAR

One of the primary reasons for including the SAR in the complement of ocean microwave instruments on SEASAT was the global ocean wave spectra. An accurate, timely, and global knowledge of the full two dimensional or directional surface wave spectra has great value in both operational wave forecasting and in wave climatology, especially in the Southern Oceans. The sparse sampling obtainable from a single orbiting SAR would by itself be inadequate to reconstruct a global wave field, but when supplemented with auxiliary knowledge of the winds, the SAR might provide essential updates to a global wave model.

Beal, R. C.↗

Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS): Final Report of the ASCENDS Ad Hoc Science Definition Team

Improved remote sensing observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are critically needed to quantify, monitor, and understand the Earth's carbon cycle and its evolution in a changing climate. The processes governing ocean and terrestrial carbon uptake remain poorly understood,especially in dynamic regions with large carbon stocks and strong vulnerability to climate change,for example, the tropical land biosphere, the northern hemisphere high latitudes, and the Southern Ocean. Because the passive spectrometers used by GOSAT (Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite) and OCO-2 (Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2) require sunlit and cloud-free conditions,current observations over these regions remain infrequent and are subject to biases. These short comings limit our ability to understand and predict the processes controlling the carbon cycle on regional to global scales.In contrast, active CO2 remote-sensing techniques allow accurate measurements to be taken day and night, over ocean and land surfaces, in the presence of thin or scattered clouds, and at all times of year. Because of these benefits, the National Research Council recommended the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights,Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) mission in the 2007 report Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond. The ability of ASCENDS to collect low-bias observations in these key regions is expected to address important gaps in our knowledge of the contemporary carbon cycle.The ASCENDS ad hoc Science Definition Team (SDT), comprised of carbon cycle modeling and active remote sensing instrument teams throughout the United States (US), worked to develop the mission's requirements and advance its readiness from 2008 through 2018. Numerous scientific investigations were carried out to identify the benefit and feasibility of active CO2 remote sensing measurements for improving our understanding of CO2 sources and sinks. This report summarizes their findings and recommendations based on mission modeling studies, analysis of ancillary meteorological data products, development and demonstration of candidate technologies, anddesign studies of the ASCENDS mission concept.

Kawa, S. Randolph↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-20101-DND

Aerosols influence climate through their direct and indirect effects. The aerosol indirect effect is based on the way they interact with surrounding clouds. During cloud formation and development, aerosols act as cloud nucleation nuclei (CCN) or ice nuclei, which modifies cloud micro-, macro-physical and radiative properties, and hence helps to shape the Earth's radiation budget. Dominant sources of ocean-derived aerosols that may serve as CCN include sea spray and biogenic aerosol. In this study, we used 10-years global observations from the A-Train satellites to show seasonal variations of cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNC), ocean chlorophyll concentrations, aerosol angstrom parameter, and rainfall. Potential cloud-aerosol interactions are further discussed based on seasonal and spatial correlations between microphysics of clouds and aerosols. Emphasis for this study is placed on the southern ocean and tropical Pacific.

Shan Zeng↗