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At least 307 records · Page 17

Satellites for the study of ocean primary productivity

The use of remote sensing techniques for obtaining estimates of global marine primary productivity is examined. It is shown that remote sensing and multiplatform (ship, aircraft, and satellite) sampling strategies can be used to significantly lower the variance in estimates of phytoplankton abundance and of population growth rates from the values obtained using the C-14 method. It is noted that multiplatform sampling strategies are essential to assess the mean and variance of phytoplankton biomass on a regional or on a global basis. The relative errors associated with shipboard and satellite estimates of phytoplankton biomass and primary productivity, as well as the increased statistical accuracy possible from the utilization of contemporaneous data from both sampling platforms, are examined. It is shown to be possible to follow changes in biomass and the distribution patterns of biomass as a function of time with the use of satellite imagery.

Smith, R. C.↗

One Galaxy Sample to Rule Them All: Halo Occupation Distribution Modeling of DES Year 3 Source Galaxies

Abstract For the joint analysis of second-order weak-lensing and galaxy clustering statistics, so-called 3 × 2 analyses, the selection and characterization of optimal galaxy samples is a major area of research. One promising choice is to use the same galaxy sample as lenses and sources, which reduces the systematics parameter space that describes the uncertainties related to galaxy samples. Such a “lens-equal-source” analysis significantly improves the self-calibration of photo- z systematics, leading to improved cosmological constraints. With the aim of enabling a lens-equal-source analysis on small scales, we investigate the halo–galaxy connection of DES Year 3 source galaxies. We develop a technique to construct mock source galaxy populations by matching COSMOS/UltraVISTA photometry to U niverse M achine galaxies. These mocks predict a source halo occupation distribution (HOD) that exhibits significant redshift evolution, nontrivial central incompleteness, and galaxy assembly bias. We produce multiple realizations of mock source galaxies drawn from the U niverse M achine posterior, with added uncertainties in the measured Dark Energy Survey photometry and galaxy shapes. We fit a modified HOD formalism to these realizations to produce priors on the galaxy–halo connection for cosmological analyses. We additionally train an emulator that predicts this HOD to ∼2% accuracy from redshift z = 0.1−1.3 that models the dependence of this HOD on (1) observational uncertainties in galaxy size and photometry and (2) uncertainties in the U niverse M achine predictions.

Salcedo, Andrés N. (ORCID:000000031420527X)↗

Spatiotemporal Learning in Power Modules: Wavelet-Enhanced Forecasting of Thermomechanical Degradation

Detecting internal defects in power electronics packages is critical for their performance and reliability, especially under extreme operating conditions, as these defects can lead to catastrophic failure if not properly addressed. Confocal scanning acoustic microscopy (C-SAM) plays a key role in the nondestructive evaluation of bond layer degradation within a power electronics package by detecting defects such as delamination, voids, and cracks. However, accurately quantifying and predicting these defects from C-SAM images remains a significant challenge due to the low noise-to-signal ratio, which typically arises from both imaging process and bond patterns itself. In this paper, we explore machine learning strategies for processing C-SAM images and providing predictive models of defect growth. We use C-SAM images of sintered copper and sintered silver samples, which are obtained under accelerated thermal experiments, as the representative dataset for our study. We investigate the effect of Fourier transforms and wavelet transforms on these datasets to remove high-frequency noise and address noise across multiple scales with histogram equalization to enhance the contrast and improve the visibility of defects. As a result, defect boundaries can be clearly distinguished, enabling more accurate tracking of their growth over time. We then employ different time-series forecasting algorithms on the denoised images to formulate an image-based lifetime prediction model. Statistical models and deep-learning techniques are trained on images obtained in the early stages of thermal shock, and defect growth in the later stages is predicted. Our work serves as a preliminary attempt to improve the accuracy of lifetime prediction models of power electronics packages, which is critical under extreme operating environments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Cloud Statistics for NASA Climate Change Studies

The Principal Investigator participated in two field experiments and developed a global data set on cirrus cloud frequency and optical depth to aid the development of numerical models of climate. Four papers were published under this grant. The accomplishments are summarized: (1) In SUCCESS (SUbsonic aircraft: Contrail & Cloud Effects Special Study) the Principal Investigator aided weather forecasters in the start of the field program. A paper also was published on the clouds studied in SUCCESS and the use of the satellite stereographic technique to distinguish cloud forms and heights of clouds. (2) In SHEBA (Surface Heat Budget in the Arctic) FIRE/ACE (Arctic Cloud Experiment) the Principal Investigator provided daily weather and cloud forecasts for four research aircraft crews, NASA's ER-2, UCAR's C-130, University of Washington's Convert 580, and the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service's Convert 580. Approximately 105 forecasts were written. The Principal Investigator also made daily weather summaries with calculations of air trajectories for 54 flight days in the experiment. The trajectories show where the air sampled during the flights came from and will be used in future publications to discuss the origin and history of the air and clouds sampled by the aircraft. A paper discussing how well the FIRE/ACE data represent normal climatic conditions in the arctic is being prepared. (3) The Principal Investigator's web page became the source of information for weather forecasting by the scientists on the SHEBA ship. (4) Global Cirrus frequency and optical depth is a continuing analysis of global cloud cover and frequency distribution are being made from the NOAA polar orbiting weather satellites. This analysis is sensitive to cirrus clouds because of the radiative channels used. During this grant three papers were published which describe cloud frequencies, their optical properties and compare the Wisconsin FM Cloud Analysis to other global cloud data such as the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Program (ISCCP) and the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE). A summary of eight years of HIRS data will be published in late 1998. Important information from this study are: 1) cirrus clouds cover most of the earth, 2) they are found about 40% of the time globally, 3) in the tropics cirrus cloud frequencies are even higher, from 80-100%, 4) there is slight evidence that cirnis cloud cover is increasing in the northern hemisphere at about 0.5% per year, and 5) cirrus clouds have an average infrared transmittance of about 40% of the terrestrial radiation. (5) Global Cloud Frequency Statistics published on the Principal Investigator's web page have been used in the planning of the future CRYSTAL experiment and have been used for refinements of a global numerical model operated at the Colorado State University.

Wylie, Donald P.↗

The Chandra X-Ray Observatory Radiation Environment Model

CRMFLX (Chandra Radiation Model of ion FluX) is an environmental risk mitigation tool for use as a decision aid in planning the operations times for Chandra's Advanced CCD Imaging Spectrometer (ACIS) detector. The accurate prediction of the proton flux environment with energies of 100 - 200 keV is needed in order to protect the ACIS detector against proton degradation. Unfortunately, protons of this energy are abundant in the region of space Chandra must operate, and the on-board Electron, Proton, and Helium Instrument (EPHIN) does not measure proton flux levels of the required energy range. In addition to the concerns arising from the radiation belts, substorm injections of plasma from the magnetotail may increase the protons flux by orders of magnitude in this energy range. The Earth's magnetosphere is a dynamic entity, with the size and location of the magnetopause driven by the highly variable solar wind parameters (number density, velocity, and magnetic field components). Operational times for the telescope must be made weeks in advance, decisions which are complicated by the variability of the environment. CRMFLX is an engineering model developed to address these problems and provides proton flux and fluence statistics for the terrestrial outer magnetosphere, magnetosheath, and solar wind for use in scheduling ACIS operations. CRMFLX implements a number of standard models to predict the bow shock, magnetopause, and plasma sheet boundaries based on the sampling of historical solar wind data sets. Measurements from the GEOTAIL and POLAR spacecraft are used to create the proton flux database. This paper describes the recently released CRMFLX v2 implementation that includes an algorithm that propagates flux from an observation location to other regions of the magnetosphere based on convective ExB and VB-curvature particle drift motions in electric and magnetic fields. This technique has the advantage of more completely filling out the database and makes maximum use of limited data obtained during high Kp periods or in areas of the magnetosphere with poor satellite coverage.

Blackwell, W. C.↗

Analyzing Non Stationary Processes in Radiometers

The lack of well-developed techniques for modeling changing statistical moments in our observations has stymied the application of stochastic process theory for many scientific and engineering applications. Non linear effects of the observation methodology is one of the most perplexing aspects to modeling non stationary processes. This perplexing problem was encountered when modeling the effect of non stationary receiver fluctuations on the performance of radiometer calibration architectures. Existing modeling approaches were found not applicable; particularly problematic is modeling processes across scales over which they begin to exhibit non stationary behavior within the time interval of the calibration algorithm. Alternatively, the radiometer output is modeled as samples from a sequence random variables; the random variables are treated using a conditional probability distribution function conditioned on the use of the variable in the calibration algorithm. This approach of treating a process as a sequence of random variables with non stationary stochastic moments produce sensible predictions of temporal effects of calibration algorithms. To test these model predictions, an experiment using the Millimeter wave Imaging Radiometer (MIR) was conducted. The MIR with its two black body calibration references was configured in a laboratory setting to observe a third ultra-stable reference (CryoTarget). The MIR was programmed to sequentially sample each of the three references in approximately a 1 second cycle. Data were collected over a six-hour interval. The sequence of reference measurements form an ensemble sample set comprised of a series of three reference measurements. Two references are required to estimate the receiver response. A third reference is used to estimate the uncertainty in the estimate. Typically, calibration algorithms are designed to suppress the non stationary effects of receiver fluctuations. By treating the data sequence as an ensemble collection, it is possible to apply temporal algorithms which exacerbate the non stationary effects. By varying the algorithm, information about the properties of the non stationary receiver fluctuations is obtained. Comparisons of analytical calculations and statistical analysis of data demonstrate impressive agreement.

Racette, Paul↗

Pairing statistics for infrared-luminous galaxies

A knowledge of the pairing fraction of IR-selected galaxies is important in understanding the role of interactions in star formation and nuclear activity. It is clear that interactions are extremely common among the most IR-luminous systems, but results have been inconsistent for less luminous systems; this may result from using peculiar morphology as an indicator of an interaction. Since features associated with milder interactions (e.g., tidal tails) tend to be faint, their detection necessarily depends on the depth of the survey used to identify interacting pairs. We present a sample of IR- and optically-selected galaxies for which we have computed pairing fractions using strictly geometrical, quantitative criteria. For the analysis we used a likelihood ratio technique developed by Keel and van Soest (1992). We find that the pairing fraction for IR-selected galaxies is roughly 30 percent, comparable to that found by Keel and van Soest for optically-selected starbursts. We also detect a strong correlation (r above 0.99) between the 60 micron luminosity of a galaxy sample and its pairing fraction. We conclude that although tidal interactions do not guarantee enhanced activity (AGN or starburst), they can amplify internal properties that would feed such activity.

Gallimore, J. F.↗

Probabilistic nonlinear finite element analysis of composite structures

A probabilistic finite element analysis procedure for laminated composite shells is developed. A total Lagrangian finite element formulation, employing a degenerated three-dimensional laminated composite shell element with the full Green-Lagrange strains and first-order shear deformable kinematics, is used. The first-order second-moment technique for probabilistic finite element analysis of random fields is employed, and results are presented in the form of mean and variance of the structural response. Reliability calculations are made by using the first-order reliability method combined with sensitivity derivatives from the finite element analysis. Both ply-level and micromechanics-level random variables are incorporated, the latter by means of the Aboudi micromechanics model. Two sample problems are solved to verify the accuracy of the procedures developed and to quantify the variability of certain material type/structure combinations. In general, the procedure is quite effective in determining the response statistics and reliability for linear and geometric nonlinear behavior of laminated composite shells.

Engelstad, S. P.↗

Probing the PeV region in the astrophysical neutrino spectrum using 𝜈 𝜇 from the Southern sky

IceCube has observed a diffuse astrophysical neutrino flux over the energy region from a few TeV to a few PeV. At PeV energies, the spectral shape is not yet well measured due to the low statistics of the data. This analysis probes the gap between 1 and 10 PeV by using high-energy downgoing muon neutrinos. Here, to reject the large atmospheric muon background, two complementary techniques are combined. The first technique selects events with high stochasticity to reject atmospheric muon bundles whose stochastic energy losses are smoothed due to high muon multiplicity. The second technique vetoes atmospheric muons with the IceTop surface array. Using 9 yrs of data, we found two neutrino candidate events in the signal region, consistent with expectation from background, each with relatively high signal probabilities. A joint maximum likelihood estimation is performed using this sample and an independent 9.5-yr sample of tracks to measure the neutrino spectrum. A likelihood ratio test is done to compare the single power-law (SPL) vs SPL+cutoff hypothesis; the SPL+cutoff model is not significantly better than the SPL. High-energy astrophysical objects from four source catalogs are also checked around the direction of the two events. No significant coincidence was found.

Abbasi, R. [Loyola University Chicago] (ORCID:0000↗

PISCES two-detector covariance matrix fit for the NOvA Experiment

NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment with two functionally identical detectors: a Near Detector (ND) at Fermilab, placed 1 km from the neutrino source, and a Far Detector (FD) located 810 km away from the ND in Minnesota. NOvA's primary physics goals are the precise measurements of neutrino oscillation parameters $\theta_{23}$ and $\Delta m^2_{32}$ , determine the neutrino mass ordering, and constrain the value of $\delta_{CP}$, via the study of muon neutrino to electron neutrino oscillation. In the standard NOvA three-flavor analysis, oscillation parameters are extracted using an extrapolation technique in which the ND data constrain the FD prediction through a ratio method. While this allows for systematic uncertainties sharing the same effects in both detectors to cancel, it remains an FD-only fit and does not fully leverage the constraining power of the high-statistics ND. This analysis proposes a simultaneous ND+FD fit using the PISCES method. PISCES (Parameter Inference with Systematic Covariance and Exact Statistics) is a framework designed to support complex configurations such as a joint ND+FD fit. This allows PISCES to take full advantage of the ND data to directly constrain systematic uncertainties across all samples. In PISCES, systematic uncertainties are encoded in a fractional covariance matrix, and statistical uncertainties are handled with a Poisson likelihood, making the approach well suited for low-statistics samples. For interpretability, we further use a Newton–Raphson + PCA method to recover per-systematic pulls from the covariance formulation. This poster presents the full PISCES joint ND+FD fit for the NOvA three-flavor analysis, describes its implementation and evaluates its performance through extensive robustness tests and fake data studies. It also provides a comparison between the PISCES joint ND+FD results and the standard NOvA extrapolation method.

Rajaoalisoa, Miriama [Cincinnati U.] (ORCID:000000↗

On evaluating compliance with air pollution levels not to be exceeded more than once per year

The adequacy is considered of currently practiced monitoring and data reduction techniques for assessing compliance with 24-hour Air Quality Standards (AQS) not to be exceeded more than once per year. The present situation for suspended particulates is discussed. The following conclusions are reached: (1) For typical less than daily sampling (i.e., 60 to 120 24-hour samples per year) the deviation from independence of the data set should not be substantial. (2) The interchange of exponentiation and expectation operations in the EPA data reduction model, underestimates the second highest level by about 4 to 8 percent for typical sigma values. (3) Estimates of the second highest pollution level have associated with them a large statistical variability arising from the finite size of the sample. The 0.95 confidence interval ranges from + or - 40 percent for 120 samples per year to + or - 84 percent for 30 samples per year. (4) The design value suggested by EPA for abatement and/or control planning purposes typically gives a margin of safety of 60 to 120 percent.

Neustadter, H. E.↗

Forest inventory using multistage sampling with probability proportional to size

A multistage sampling technique, with probability proportional to size, for forest volume inventory using remote sensing data is developed and evaluated. The study area is located in the Southeastern Brazil. The LANDSAT 4 digital data of the study area are used in the first stage for automatic classification of reforested areas. Four classes of pine and eucalypt with different tree volumes are classified utilizing a maximum likelihood classification algorithm. Color infrared aerial photographs are utilized in the second stage of sampling. In the third state (ground level) the time volume of each class is determined. The total time volume of each class is expanded through a statistical procedure taking into account all the three stages of sampling. This procedure results in an accurate time volume estimate with a smaller number of aerial photographs and reduced time in field work.

Parada, N. D. J.↗

Experimental Investigations of Non-Stationary Properties In Radiometer Receivers Using Measurements of Multiple Calibration References

Radiometers must be periodically calibrated because the receiver response fluctuates. Many techniques exist to correct for the time varying response of a radiometer receiver. An analytical technique has been developed that uses generalized least squares regression (LSR) to predict the performance of a wide variety of calibration algorithms. The total measurement uncertainty including the uncertainty of the calibration can be computed using LSR. The uncertainties of the calibration samples used in the regression are based upon treating the receiver fluctuations as non-stationary processes. Signals originating from the different sources of emission are treated as simultaneously existing random processes. Thus, the radiometer output is a series of samples obtained from these random processes. The samples are treated as random variables but because the underlying processes are non-stationary the statistics of the samples are treated as non-stationary. The statistics of the calibration samples depend upon the time for which the samples are to be applied. The statistics of the random variables are equated to the mean statistics of the non-stationary processes over the interval defined by the time of calibration sample and when it is applied. This analysis opens the opportunity for experimental investigation into the underlying properties of receiver non stationarity through the use of multiple calibration references. In this presentation we will discuss the application of LSR to the analysis of various calibration algorithms, requirements for experimental verification of the theory, and preliminary results from analyzing experiment measurements.

Racette, Paul↗

Remote Sensing Time Series Product Tool

The TSPT (Time Series Product Tool) software was custom-designed for NASA to rapidly create and display single-band and band-combination time series, such as NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) images, for wide-area crop surveillance and for other time-critical applications. The TSPT, developed in MATLAB, allows users to create and display various MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) or simulated VIIRS (Visible/Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite) products as single images, as time series plots at a selected location, or as temporally processed image videos. Manually creating these types of products is extremely labor intensive; however, the TSPT development tool makes the process simplified and efficient. MODIS is ideal for monitoring large crop areas because of its wide swath (2330 km), its relatively small ground sample distance (250 m), and its high temporal revisit time (twice daily). Furthermore, because MODIS imagery is acquired daily, rapid changes in vegetative health can potentially be detected. The new TSPT technology provides users with the ability to temporally process high-revisit-rate satellite imagery, such as that acquired from MODIS and from its successor, the VIIRS. The TSPT features the important capability of fusing data from both MODIS instruments onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites, which drastically improves cloud statistics. With the TSPT, MODIS metadata is used to find and optionally remove bad and suspect data. Noise removal and temporal processing techniques allow users to create low-noise time series plots and image videos and to select settings and thresholds that tailor particular output products. The TSPT GUI (graphical user interface) provides an interactive environment for crafting what-if scenarios by enabling a user to repeat product generation using different settings and thresholds. The TSPT Application Programming Interface provides more fine-tuned control of product generation, allowing experienced programmers to bypass the GUI and to create more user-specific output products, such as comparison time plots or images. This type of time series analysis tool for remotely sensed imagery could be the basis of a large-area vegetation surveillance system. The TSPT has been used to generate NDVI time series over growing seasons in California and Argentina and for hurricane events, such as Hurricane Katrina.

Predos, Don↗

Temperature-dependent Absolute Refractive Index Measurements of Synthetic Fused Silica

Using the Cryogenic, High-Accuracy Refraction Measuring System (CHARMS) at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, we have measured the absolute refractive index of five specimens taken from a very large boule of Corning 7980 fused silica from temperatures ranging from 30 to 310 K at wavelengths from 0.4 to 2.6 microns with an absolute uncertainty of plus or minus 1 x 10 (exp -5). Statistical variations in derived values of the thermo-optic coefficient (dn/dT) are at the plus or minus 2 x 10 (exp -8)/K level. Graphical and tabulated data for absolute refractive index, dispersion, and thermo-optic coefficient are presented for selected wavelengths and temperatures along with estimates of uncertainty in index. Coefficients for temperature-dependent Sellmeier fits of measured refractive index are also presented to allow accurate interpolation of index to other wavelengths and temperatures. We compare our results to those from an independent investigation (which used an interferometric technique for measuring index changes as a function of temperature) whose samples were prepared from the same slugs of material from which our prisms were prepared in support of the Kepler mission. We also compare our results with sparse cryogenic index data from measurements of this material from the literature.

Leviton, Douglas B.↗

Stacked reverberation mapping of high-redshift quasars in DESI. I. Feasibility analysis

The broad-line region of quasars has long been probed by reverberation mapping techniques that measure time lags between continuum and broad emission-line variations. Stacked reverberation mapping has been proposed as a less observationally expensive alternative to traditional methods. This ensemble approach also reduces biases from small-number statistics. The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) is conducting the most extensive spectroscopic survey of quasars to date. We create mock light curves emulating expected DESI quasar observations at redshifts $1.48\lt z\lt 5.2$ and luminosities $44.68 \le \log \lambda L_{1350 \mathring{\rm A}{}} / \mathrm{erg\, s^{-1}} \le 45.99$ to test stacked reverberation mapping feasibility using sparse spectroscopic data paired with well-sampled photometric data. The pipeline, using the lag estimation code JAVELIN (Just Another Vehicle for Estimating Lags In Nuclei), successfully recovers the simulated C IV lags within 1σ of the true values using spectroscopic light curves composed of only a few spectral epochs (2–10) with irregular cadences. We investigate how observational factors, including C IV flux error magnitude, number of stacked quasars, and spectral epoch count, affect performance. This work motivates a pathway for future stacked reverberation mapping projects with large-scale spectroscopic surveys of quasars having $\ge 2$ spectroscopic observations. Our results suggest an economical alternative for constraining and extending the radius–luminosity relation to higher redshifts and luminosities. Subsequently, this relation can be employed more reliably in single-epoch black hole mass measurements and quasar cosmology in these distant regimes.

quasars: general, quasars: supermassive black hole↗

Design and Performance Tests of Ultra-Compact Calorimeters for High Energy Astrophysics

This R&D project had two goals: a) the study of general-application ultra-compact calorimetry technologies for use in High Energy Astrophysics and, b) contribute to the design of an efficient calorimeter for the ACCESS mission. The direct measurement of galactic cosmic ray fluxes is performed from space or from balloon-borne detectors. Detectors used in those studies are limited in size and, specially, in weight. Since galactic cosmic ray fluxes are very small, detectors with high geometrical acceptances and long exposures are usually required for collecting enough statistics. We have studied calorimeter techniques that could produce large geometrical acceptance per unit of mass (G/w) and that may be used to study galactic cosmic rays at intermediate energies (knee energies).-The most important asset for detection of primary cosmic rays at and about the knee is large acceptance. To construct a large acceptance calorimeter (this term is used here in its most general accepted meaning of calorimeter as a device to measure particle energies ) the detector needs to be verv liaht or verv shallow . We studied two possible technologies to built compact calorimeters: the use of lead-tungstate crystals (PWO) and the use of sampling calorimetry using scintillating fibers embedded in a matrix of powder tungsten. For a very light detector, we considered the possibility of using Optical Transition Radiation (OTR) to measure the energy (and perhaps also direction and identity) of VHE cosmic rays.

Salgado, Carlos W.↗

A Comparison Study of Normal-Incidence Acoustic Impedance Measurements of a Perforate Liner

The eduction of the acoustic impedance for liner configurations is fundamental to the reduction of noise from modern jet engines. Ultimately, this property must be measured accurately for use in analytical and numerical propagation models of aircraft engine noise. Thus any standardized measurement techniques must be validated by providing reliable and consistent results for different facilities and sample sizes. This paper compares normal-incidence acoustic impedance measurements using the two-microphone method of ten nominally identical individual liner samples from two facilities, namely 50.8 mm and 25.4 mm square waveguides at NASA Langley Research Center and the University of Florida, respectively. The liner chosen for this investigation is a simple single-degree-of-freedom perforate liner with resonance and anti-resonance frequencies near 1.1 kHz and 2.2 kHz, respectively. The results show that the ten measurements have the most variation around the anti-resonance frequency, where statistically significant differences exist between the averaged results from the two facilities. However, the sample-to-sample variation is comparable in magnitude to the predicted cross-sectional area-dependent cavity dissipation differences between facilities, providing evidence that the size of the present samples does not significantly influence the results away from anti-resonance.

Schultz, Todd↗