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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Potential bill impacts of dynamic electricity pricing on California utility customers

The rapid growth of renewable generation is creating challenges for the California grid in the form of the “duck curve,” with increasingly steep ramping required for conventional generation resources in the morning and evening, and growing curtailment of solar resources in midday periods. Time-varying electricity tariffs have received considerable attention as a tool to address these challenges, with a renewed recent focus on the potential for dynamic tariffs that vary to reflect conditions on the grid in near-real time. Consideration of dynamic tariffs may raise concerns about the financial impact on utility customers, especially for those who have limited flexibility to modify their electricity consumption in response. Specific areas of concern include electricity bills, bill volatility, and equity implications related to cost shifting among customer groups. In this paper we leverage smart meter data for more than 400,000 California utility customers, spanning residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural customers, to assess potential customer bill impacts arising from a multi-component dynamic tariff . Specifically, we compute impacts on customer bills and bill volatility under the assumption of fully inelastic demand, i.e., where customers do not change their consumption patterns in response to the tariff. We also assess various approaches designing subscription load shapes that customers can pre-purchase as a hedge that may provide a measure of protection against large negative impacts, while still incentivizing the modification of loads on the margin. We compare and contrast the relative impacts on different customer classes and discuss benefits and pitfalls of different dynamic tariff structures and subscription load shapes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Data-Driven Study of Rayleigh-Taylor Transition to Turbulence [Slides]

A temporal dynamics perspective of forgetting ICs; Autonomous system of neural ODEs of 0D dynamics; Steep growth of backward integration error quantifies forgetting; Does such a system exist in reality? (a low dim. dyn. sys. shadowing a projection of a high dim. dyn. sys.); Next: minimal QOIs to identify system; Extension to PDEs of 1D dynamics of DNS.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

An asymptotic approach for the statistical thermodynamics of certain model systems

In classical statistical thermodynamics, calculating the configuration integral is both vital and elusive. Analytic relations for configuration integrals are desirable for modeling purposes, but it is typically impossible to obtain them. Certain systems become analytically tractable after replacing steep potential energies with harmonic potentials or athermal rigid constraints, but these approximations are often inadequate, especially when modeling the stretching of molecules. It is therefore necessary to develop a systematic approach to improve upon the approximations provided by these reference systems. Here, a general asymptotic approach is introduced, where the configuration integral for the full system is obtained in terms of that of the reference system and several corrections. This asymptotic approach is first demonstrated using the simple example of a classical three-dimensional oscillator. Next, the approach is applied to modeling the stretching of single polymer chains and to modeling thermally assisted crack growth, where results are verified with respect to numerical calculations. Overall, this asymptotic approach is a valid and effective tool for statistical thermodynamics in general.

Buche, Michael Robert↗
DOE OSTI2024

Developing Data-Driven Synthetic Infrastructure Models for Resilience Analysis

Research on infrastructure resilience has produced promising methods to simulate and optimize complex networks to improve performance. However, restrictions on sharing infrastructure models and the steep cost of developing and maintaining infrastructure models presents a roadblock to adoption. To overcome this limitation, this research focuses on methods to create data-driven infrastructure models that will help improve infrastructure resilience and security. The analysis couples incomplete utility data, geospatial data, machine learning, and synthetic network generation methods to rapidly develop and update infrastructure models. The methods are validated using realistic utility models and site-specific data, with a focus on Puerto Rico due to its unique infrastructure challenges and available data. This research highlights promising opportunities for the use of synthetic network generation and machine learning to create infrastructure models when very little data is available. Results demonstrate that hybrid methods, which combine sparse utility data with synthetic models, can enhance model accuracy, and machine learning can predict model attributes using training data from other models. However, the complexity of infrastructure systems means that even minor changes in network connectivity can significantly impact simulation results. Resilience analysis using synthetic infrastructure models shows that while some system behaviors are preserved, the magnitude of disruptions may not be accurately represented, indicating the need for more research and validation before using synthetic models for critical infrastructure investment decisions. The framework outlined in this report represents a significant advance to infrastructure model development and could be applied to additional domains and sites. Future research will continue to streamline and validate methods to help reduce roadblocks to resilience analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Potential Cost Reduction in New Nuclear Deployments Based on Recent AP1000 Experience

The completion of Vogtle Units 3 and 4, despite significant cost and schedule overruns, a major bankruptcy, and a pandemic, demonstrates that the U.S. nuclear industry can still develop new supply chains, train a highly skilled workforce, and build large nuclear power plants. Vogtle, being a first-of-a-kind (FOAK) plant, faced overruns, but FOAK overruns can decrease with more deployments through a combination of design standardization and modularization, transferring and implementing lessons learned between consecutive projects, and innovation. This report quantifies the potential cost and schedule reductions in future AP1000 plants in the US and identifies the barriers in achieving those reductions. It starts with a summary and analysis of the cost and construction timeline data for AP1000 plants that started construction in the United States (Vogtle) and China. Motivated by the steep schedule reductions from the first to second series of AP1000 plants in China, a cost reduction model was developed to quantify potential reductions for future AP1000 builds in the US. Results show that within about 3 more builds, AP1000s can become economically attractive in large markets in the U.S., without leveraging the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) or Production Tax Credit (PTC), and much sooner if these tax credits are available. Importantly the financial risks for future AP1000 builds in the US might be much smaller than observed in the FOAK plants. The study also identifies various barriers for future builds including the availability of a supply chain and a skilled workforce, and emphasizes the importance of making investments to gather and implement lessons learned between consecutive projects.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Potential Impacts of Dynamic Electricity Pricing in California: Load Shape and Customer Bill Impacts Under Elastic Customer Response

The increasing penetration of renewable energy in California has intensified grid management challenges, exemplified by the “duck curve” and the resulting need for steep ramping and curtailment of renewables. To address these issues, dynamic electricity tariffs that vary in near-real time are being considered to incentivize customers to shift demand and support the grid. This study extends previous work on the bill impacts of such tariffs in the absence of load response by quantifying the system-level and customer impacts of load response based on customer price elasticity. Customer-level load response modeling was conducted using meter data from 411,000 customers across residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Customer demand elasticity was estimated using literature-based values, with scenarios ranging from low to high elasticity, including an automation-enhanced scenario. Results indicate that universal adoption of, and response to, dynamic tariffs can significantly reduce peak net load (by 15%) and maximum ramping requirements (by 20%) with moderate elasticity, delivering demand response resources comparable to or exceeding current programs at all elasticity levels. Bill analysis shows that, when responding elastically to dynamic prices, most non-PV customers experience modest savings, while PV customers may see higher effective rates due to lower compensation for exports during low-price periods. Emissions analysis reveals a reduction in per-kWh emissions system-wide, with a total absolute load increase of 2% accompanied by a negligible absolute emissions increase. The study concludes that while dynamic tariffs offer substantial grid benefits, customer bill savings under modeled response behaviors may be too modest to drive widespread adoption without additional incentives or enabling technologies. Future research should model flexible loads and advanced control technologies with greater fidelity to better represent the potential opportunities of dynamic tariffs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Prototype Development for MBSE-Driven Digital Environment at Fermilab

Complex projects like Fermilab s accelerators and detectors involve thousands of interdependent components and requirements, making traditional documentation hard to keep consistent and often causing rework. Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) tackles this by representing the system as a digital, queryable model. While widely used in aerospace and safety-critical industries, MBSE adoption has been limited elsewhere due to steep learning curves and high costs. This project investigates how a web-first, low-code MBSE stack can reduce those barriers and offer an accessible, unified source of truth for engineers and physicists.

Valle, Diego Pedro (ORCID:0009000865900663)↗
DOE OSTI2025

MOSCATO Development and Integration in Fiscal Year 2025: Implementation of Multiphase, Multiphysics Modeling Capabilities for Molten Salt Systems

MOSCATO (Molten Salt Chemistry and Transport) is a multiphysics code that provides high-fidelity, coupled simulations of fluid flow, heat transfer, mass transfer, chemistry, electrochemical phenomena, and alloy corrosion for molten salt systems. In FY25, significant developments were made to the code package, enhancing its capabilities for modeling all relevant phenomena within operating moltens salt reactors (MSRs). The developments and activities in FY25 included: 1. Implementation of Level-Set methods to enable modeling of single-bubble behavior in molten salts. In FY25, the Level-Set two-phase flow modeling implementation was improved to simulate single bubble behavior with molten salt media. The large density and viscosity ratios between typical gases and molten salt liquids present challenges for these types of numerical solvers. With enhancements to the pressure projection method, MOSCATO’s Level-Set solver was able to be successfully validated to experiments related to helium bubble rise in stagnant molten salt. The simulated bubble rising velocity showed reasonable good agreement with experimental measurements. The bubble shape and dynamics were also visually compared with experimental snapshots, demonstrating a good qualitative match. 2. Generation of mass transfer correlations for multiphase flow systems. To enable calculations of the tritium transport across the interface between gas bubbles and salt, we modeled high- Schmidt-number mass transfer around a sphere across a broad range of Reynolds numbers. The mesh near the sphere surface was highly refined to resolve steep concentration gradients caused by the low diffusion coefficient. Literature-based mass transfer correlations were compared with the numerical results, and modifications were proposed to improve agreement, particularly at higher Schmidt numbers. These mass transfer correlations were subsequently provided to other national laboratories to help enable high quality mass transfer simulations using lower-order solvers under development within the NEAMS program. 3. Preliminary implementation of a bubbly flow solver. To model bubbly flow in molten salt, we implemented a bubbly flow solver for void fractions less than 5%. To do so, an algebraic relative velocity model that assumes small bubbles with rapid momentum equilibration was added to MOSCATO to compute bubble velocities. Preliminary comparisons with experimental data showed reasonable agreement, and further improvements are underway. 4. Generation of mass transfer correlations for MSRE subchannel The Molten-Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) was a landmark historical project that demonstrated the feasibility of molten-salt reactor technology. The MSRE campaign also generated a significant body of experimental data and reports that continue to support molten-salt–related research. In this report, the MSRE core subchannel was used as the reference geometry for a mass transfer study performed with MOSCATO. The geometry and computational mesh were adapted from a previous study, providing adequate resolution for the relatively low Reynolds number in this case. Additional mesh refinement was applied to reach higher Schmidt numbers, enabling the derivation of a reliable mass-transfer correlation for the present scenario. 5. Simulations of oxygen ingressions into molten salt. In the previous fiscal year, we initiated a study to simulate oxygen ingression in stagnant salt. As oxygen enters the salt through its surface, it reacts with Ce 3+ to form solid CeO 2 and other reaction products. To more fully capture the complex diffusion-convection-reaction mechanisms, capabilities for modeling natural convection in the salt vessel were added. These were needed as the flow of the ingressed gas induced flow in the salt caused by surface shear and non-isothermal effects. With these updated physics in place, we were able to successfully reproduce the experimental results for the rate of change of CeCl 3 concentrations versus time. 6. Flow corrosion model validation. In FY24, MOSCATO’s corrosion model was validated against static corrosion experiments. In FY25, this work was extended to a flow corrosion experiment, where FLiNaK salt was driven by natural convection, with initial salt impurities to initiate corrosion. Despite uncertainties in parameters such as elemental diffusion coefficients in the alloy and unknown H + concentrations, the simulations achieved good agreement with experimental results, especially in predicting sample mass losses.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Initial Uncertainty Analysis of Carbon Tetrachloride Contamination and Remediation in the Ringold A and Lower Mud Units at the Central Plateau

The long-term effectiveness of groundwater cleanup at the Hanford Site Central Plateau depends on predictive models that can capture key uncertainties in contaminant fate and transport. Carbon tetrachloride (CCl 4 ), a persistent and toxic compound, presents particular challenges due to variability in degradation rates, uncertainty in initial plume distribution, and subsurface heterogeneity. These uncertainties directly influence plume persistence, migration pathways, and remedy performance, and thus must be systematically evaluated to support long-term remediation planning. To address these gaps, a large-scale Monte Carlo analysis was conducted using the Plateau to River (P2R) model framework. The modeling approach parameterized three primary uncertainty factors: (1) degradation rate, (2) initial plume distribution, and (3) hydraulic conductivity. Degradation was represented as a first-order process, with half-lives ranging from 70 to 700 years. Initial plume distributions were created using a geostatistical simulation method (sgsim), which generates many equally plausible versions of how contaminants might be distributed underground. From this, 100 different scenarios were mapped onto the P2R grid. Variability in hydraulic conductivity was represented in a similar way, with 100 scenarios each for the Ringold Lower Mud and Ringold A units (layers 6 and 7), based on fitted exponential variograms and conditioned to well data. In total, more than 1000 realizations were simulated to assess plume behavior under uncertainty. Results demonstrate that degradation kinetics exert the strongest control over plume persistence: Shorter half-lives produced rapid mass reduction, while longer half-lives yielded persistent plumes with limited attenuation. A nonlinear response was observed, with steep mass reductions at half-lives greater than 200 years and near-linear declines beyond this threshold, reflecting interactions between degradation and pumping. The initial plume distribution strongly influenced early transport patterns, with broader sources generating larger plume footprints, although pump-and-treat operations constrained plume migration to managed areas. By comparison, hydraulic conductivity variability in the Ringold units had only a secondary influence, modifying spreading behavior without altering the dominant migration pathways governed by source configuration and hydraulic controls. Overall, the analysis highlights that uncertainty in degradation rate and initial plume configuration are the primary drivers of variability in plume predictions, while conductivity heterogeneity plays a limited role. These findings underscore the need for improved site-specific data on degradation processes and source characterization to enhance the reliability of long-term performance assessments and to better inform remedial decision-making at the Central Plateau.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Laplace's method applied to functional integrals

In statistical thermodynamics, partition functions are required to evaluate the current state. It is typically impossible to analytically calculate the resulting configuration integrals, but it is sometimes possible to obtain approximations in the limit of steep potential energies. This approach directly leverages Laplace’s method for approximating integrals and has been quite successful in recent applications. Motivated by models with an infinite number of degrees of freedom, this approach should be extended to the statistical thermodynamics of fields. To that end, Laplace’s method is developed for functional integrals.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing $otsdaq$ for Optimized Data Acquisition

High-energy physics (HEP) experiments demand data acquisition (DAQ) systems capable of orchestrating complex detector operations, high data throughput, and responsive, real-time feedback. Traditional systems often have steep learning curves, making onboarding difficult for new users. The Off-The-Shelf Data Acquisition $otsdaq$ framework was developed to address these issues by providing a modular and flexible interface that is easier to operate while remaining customizable enough for experimental setups. As the upcoming Mu2e experiment prepares for deployment, improving stability, usability, and performance has become increasingly critical. Our work enhances $otsdaq$ with features that streamline visualization, correct data metrics, improve debugging workflows, and stabilize the user interface.

Mohammed, Ali (ORCID:0009000860386626)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Interactions between molecular-scale biogeochemical processes and hyporheic exchange for understanding coupled Fe-S-C cycling in iron-rich riparian wetlands (Final Technical Report)

Riparian wetlands are dynamic interfaces that exert strong control over water quality, contaminant mobility, and greenhouse gas emissions. These systems are characterized by hyporheic exchange between oxic surface water and anoxic groundwater, which generates steep redox gradients and promotes spatially and temporally variable microbial activity. Despite growing recognition of tightly coupled iron (Fe), sulfur (S), and carbon (C) cycling in these environments, the mechanisms governing these interactions—particularly under low-sulfate freshwater conditions—remain poorly constrained. This project developed a mechanistic understanding of how hydrologic variability and microbial processes interact to control Fe–S–C cycling in iron-rich riparian wetlands. Using a multi-scale and multi-method approach integrating field observations, geochemical and spectroscopic analyses, metagenomics, and reactive transport modeling, we demonstrate that “cryptic” sulfur cycling—rapid sulfur transformations involving intermediate-valence species—plays a dominant and previously underrecognized role in freshwater wetlands. These processes persist despite low sulfate concentrations and significantly influence iron reduction, carbon mineralization, and methane dynamics. The results show that cryptic sulfur cycling enhances dissolved Fe 2+ production, regulates methane concentrations, and is strongly controlled by climate-driven hydrologic fluxes. By linking hydroclimate, subsurface flow, and biogeochemical reactions, this work provides a predictive framework for understanding how wetland systems respond to environmental change, with direct implications for water quality and carbon cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Elevating SolTrace's Capabilities for the Next Generation of Concentrating Solar Analysis

SolTrace is an open-source Monte Carlo ray tracing software developed at NREL. SolTrace can characterize concentrating solar thermal (CST) collector optical performance and is CST technology agnostic. Shown in Fig. 1, SolTrace is a foundational tool in NREL's CST system and component modeling suite. SolTrace's generic surface elements can flexibly model novel collector and receiver designs to predict spatial and temporal flux distributions - critical to understand for CST component design, performance prediction, and system integration. Since its initial development, SolTrace has over 1,650 references on Google Scholar, over 9,800 downloads since 2017, and has served the CST research and development community as a benchmark of 3rd party verification. SolTrace provides users with many options for defining surface shape and boundaries. However, SolTrace provides limited documentation which can result in a steep learning curve for new users. Additionally, SolTrace lacks the computational performance required to evaluate optical performance of a CST system over the course of a year and/or iteratively over design parameters in a timely manner. To address this, we are working towards a new release of SolTrace that enables increased computational throughput by implementing ray tracing acceleration structures and enabling GPU parallelization. Additionally, we are working to improve SolTrace's usability, accessibility, and maintainability by (1) automating solar position time-dependent simulation processes, (2) creating general CST collector templates of grouped elements, (3) updating the user interface to better visualize model inputs and outputs, and (4) creating a user support network through forums, "how to" videos, and documentation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Direct Numerical Simulation Database of High-Speed Flow over Parameterized Curved Walls

This study presents a direct numerical simulation (DNS) database of high-speed turbulent boundary layers (TBLs) subject to pressure gradients due to parametrically varied backward-facing and forward-facing wall curvatures, with an inflow Mach number of 4.9 and a friction Reynolds number of [Formula: see text] immediately before the onset of wall curvature. The Mach and Reynolds numbers are significantly higher than those reported in the literature for the DNS of pressure-gradient TBLs. The flow conditions and baseline wall geometries are representative of experiments in the high-speed blowdown wind tunnel at the National Aerothermochemistry Laboratory at Texas A&M University. The wall steepness of the baseline geometry for both the backward-facing and forward-facing walls was systematically varied to cause attached, incipiently separated, and fully separated flows. Precomputed flow statistics, including turbulent kinetic energy budgets, are available on the website of the Turbulence Modeling Resource of the NASA Langley Research Center, allowing other investigators to query any property of interest.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mapping snow depth and volume at the alpine watershed scale from aerial imagery using Structure from Motion

Time series mapping of snow volume in the mountains at global scales and at resolutions needed for water resource management is an unsolved challenge to date. Snow depth mapping by differencing surface elevations from airborne lidar is a mature measurement approach filling the observation gap operationally in a few regions, primarily in mountain headwaters in the Western United States. The same concept for snow depth retrieval from stereo- or multi-view photogrammetry has been demonstrated, but these previous studies had limited ability to determine the uncertainties of photogrammetric snow depth at the basin scale. For example, assessments used non-coincident or discrete points for reference, masked out vegetation, or compared a subset of the fully snow-covered study domain. Here, using a unique data set with simultaneously collected airborne data, we compare snow depth mapped from multi-view Structure from Motion photogrammetry to that mapped by lidar at multiple resolutions over an entire mountain basin (300 km 2 ). After excluding reconstruction errors (negative depths), SfM had lower snow-covered area (~27%) and snow volume (~16%) compared to lidar. The reconstruction errors were primarily in areas with vegetation, shallow snow (< 1 m), and steep slopes (> 60°C). Across the overlapping snow extent, snow depths compared well to lidar with similar mean values (< 0.03 m difference) and snow volume (± 5%) for output resolutions of 3 m and 50 m, and with a normalized median absolute deviation of 0.19 m. Our results indicate that photogrammetry from aerial images can be applied in the mountains but would perform best for deeper snowpacks above tree line.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Editorial: Resolving atmospheric flow in complex environments: recent experiments in terrain and forest canopies

The characterization of atmospheric flows in complex environments, which may include steep terrain slopes and heterogeneous vegetation and/or forest cover, is a long-standing challenge in boundary-layer meteorology. Atmospheric observations are complicated by the presence of transient, terrain-induced flow features, forest-canopy-atmosphere interactions, and atmospheric stability effects, not to mention the logistical hurdles involved with instrument deployment, data analysis, and quality control. Furthermore, challenges in atmospheric modeling arise due to numerical errors associated with complex terrain flows, as well as reliance on simplified parameterizations for unresolved processes such as turbulent mixing and land-surface or forest-canopy-atmosphere interactions. These modeling challenges are exacerbated in the so-called “gray zone,” wherein features of interest have length scales that are similar to the model grid spacing, or when the principal flow layer is smaller than the grid spacing (e.g., slope flows).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

In-Situ Sensing and Dynamics Predictions for Electrothermally-Actuated Soft Robot Limbs

Untethered soft robots that locomote using electrothermally-responsive materials like shape memory alloy (SMA) face challenging design constraints for sensing actuator states. At the same time, modeling of actuator behaviors faces steep challenges, even with available sensor data, due to complex electrical-thermal-mechanical interactions and hysteresis. This article proposes a framework for in-situ sensing and dynamics modeling of actuator states, particularly temperature of SMA wires, which is used to predict robot motions. A planar soft limb is developed, actuated by a pair of SMA coils, that includes compact and robust sensors for temperature and angular deflection. Data from these sensors are used to train a neural network-based on the long short-term memory (LSTM) architecture to model both unidirectional (single SMA) and bidirectional (both SMAs) motion. Predictions from the model demonstrate that data from the temperature sensor, combined with control inputs, allow for dynamics predictions over extraordinarily long open-loop timescales (10 min) with little drift. Prediction errors are on the order of the soft deflection sensor’s accuracy. This architecture allows for compact designs of electrothermally-actuated soft robots that include sensing sufficient for motion predictions, helping to bring these robots into practical application.

Sabelhaus, Andrew P.↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Budyko shape parameter as a descriptive index for streamflow loss

Increases in evapotranspiration (ET) from global warming are decreasing streamflow in headwater basins worldwide. However, these streamflow losses do not occur uniformly due to complex topography. To better understand the heterogeneity of streamflow loss, we use the Budyko shape parameter (ω) as a diagnostic tool. We fit ω to 37-year of hydrologic simulation output in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), an important headwater basin in the US. We split the UCRB into two categories: peak watersheds with high elevation and steep slopes, and valley watersheds with lower elevation and gradual slopes. Our results demonstrate a relationship between streamflow loss and ω. The valley watersheds with greater streamflow loss have ω higher than 3.1, while the peak watersheds with less streamflow loss have an average ω of 1.3. This work highlights the use of ω as an indicator of streamflow loss and could be generalized to other headwater basin systems.

large scale analysis↗