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At least 307 records · Page 17

Maximizing machine learning interatomic potential transferability for the discovery of the novel stellated octadecagon Bi18-Pt24 cage structure

Achieving true transferability remains the central challenge for Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials (ML-IAPs) in modeling complex bimetallic nanoclusters across their vast potential energy surfaces. We systematically investigate data selection strategies to optimize the Chebyshev Interaction Model for Efficient Simulation (ChIMES) potential for the Bi-Pt nanoclusters by comparing three innovative sampling methods: Principal Component Analysis (PCA)/k-means (structural diversity), t-distributedStochasticNeighborEmbedding (t-SNE)/k-means (force-space diversity), and hierarchical clustering. Quantitatively, the PCA/k-means strategy proved most effective for global accuracy, yielding the lowest force errors and achieving energy root mean square errors (RMSE) values competitive with Density Functional Theory (DFT), demonstrating excellent accuracy (19.16meV/atom). Structural validation on 34 unique DFT-optimized isomers further confirmed the potential’s high fidelity, with the best model PCA/k-means reproducing structures with an average root mean square deviation (RMSD) of 0.10 Å. However, the t-SNE methods, by maximizing diversity in the force space, demonstrated superior extrapolative power, leading to the more precise prediction of a novel stellated octadecagon Bi18⁢Pt24 cage structure, demonstrating the potential for exploring previously unseen morphologies. Our results establish a clear methodology for strategic data sampling that successfully maximizes ML-IAP transferability, providing an accurate and computationally efficient tool that accelerates the theoretical discovery of complex bimetallic architectures.

Vangheluwe, Raphaël [Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS↗

Evolution_and_engineering_of_pathways_for_aromatic_O-demethylation_in_Pseudomonas_putida_KT2440

Biological conversion of lignin from biomass offers a promising strategy for sustainable production of fuels and chemicals. However,aromatic compoundsderived from lignin commonly contain methoxy groups, andO-demethylation of these substrates is often a rate-limiting reaction that influences catabolic efficiency. Severalenzymefamilies catalyze aromaticO-demethylation, but they are rarely comparedin vivoto determine an optimal biocatalytic strategy. Here, two pathways for aromaticO-demethylation were compared inPseudomonas putidaKT2440. The native Rieske non-heme ironmonooxygenase(VanAB) and, separately, a heterologous tetrahydrofolate-dependentdemethylase(LigM) were constitutively expressed inP. putida, and the strains were optimized via adaptive laboratory evolution (ALE) withvanillateas a model substrate. All evolved strains displayed improved growth phenotypes, with the evolved strains harboring the native VanAB pathway exhibiting growth rates ∼1.8x faster than those harboring the heterologous LigM pathway.Enzyme kineticsandtranscriptomicsstudies investigated the contribution of selected mutations toward enhanced utilization of vanillate. The VanAB-overexpressing strains contained the most impactful mutations, including those in VanB, thereductasefor vanillateO-demethylase, PP_3494, a global regulator of vanillate catabolism, andfghA, involved in formaldehydedetoxification. These three mutations were combined into a single strain, which exhibited approximately 5x faster vanillate consumption than the wild-type strain in the first 8 h of cultivation. Overall, this study illuminates the details of vanillate catabolism in the context of two distinct enzymatic mechanisms,yielding a platform strain for efficientO-demethylation of lignin-related aromatic compounds to value-added products. This DOI contains supplementary material associated with the published manuscript.

CBI↗

Advancing Grid Resilience through Smart Charge Management: Findings from Maryland’s Pilot

This report presents research findings from a four-year Smart Charge Management (SCM) pilot program conducted by Maryland’s largest electric utilities—Baltimore Gas and Electric (BGE), Potomac Electric Power Company (Pepco), and Delmarva Power & Light (DPL)—to evaluate strategies for optimizing electric vehicle (EV) charging loads and enhancing grid stability. Supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Argonne National Laboratory collaborated with all project partners and examined the effectiveness of Time-of-Use (TOU) and Load Balancing (LB) strategies in managing peak demand, deferring costly infrastructure upgrades, and reducing grid constraints at the feeder level. Using charging data from over 4,600 EV drivers, the study analyzed SCM’s impact on the distribution systems of BGE and Pepco, which consists of over 2000 feeders. Unlike prior research that focused on system-wide trends or synthetic feeders, this analysis offers granular, feeder-level insights based on real-world operational data. It highlights how transformer density, load profiles, and infrastructure constraints influence smart charging performance. Results show feeder-level conditions play a crucial role in SCM effectiveness, with most feeders benefiting more from LB, while TOU-based SCM may be sufficient for others. By 2035, LB reduced peak charging loads by 27% on average, compared to 23% under TOU-based SCM, though some feeders saw reductions exceeding 35%, while others experienced minimal impact. Feeders with higher transformer utilization and limited capacity benefited more from LB, which more effectively distributed charging demand during off-peak hours. Beyond reducing grid constraints, SCM offers long-term operational and financial benefits. By shifting EV charging demand strategically, utilities can optimize asset utilization, delay infrastructure investments, and enhance grid performance. In terms of infrastructure upgrade deferrals, at the feeder level, LB consistently reduced peak charging loads and resulting infrastructure upgrade costs, particularly in high EV enrollment areas, decreasing the number of overloaded transformers by up to 35%, while TOU-based SCM achieved 20-30% reductions depending on feeder characteristics. At the system level, LB has the potential to defer total upgrade costs by $\$$186 million for BGE, compared to $\$$159 million under TOU-based SCM. For Pepco, TOU-based SCM performed slightly better, deferring upgrade costs by $\$$30 million, compared to $\$$29 million under LB. Section 4.5 reviews some of the system differences between BGE and Pepco. However, as EV adoption scales, TOU-based SCM will introduce secondary peak charging loads, reinforcing the need for more advanced, adaptive SCM approaches to prevent new grid challenges. As EV adoption continues to grow, feeder-level managed charging strategies will be essential for mitigating grid stress, improving infrastructure efficiency, and maintaining energy affordability for consumers. This report provides critical insights for utilities, Public Utility Commissions (PUCs), and state agencies on the role of feeder-specific smart charging in infrastructure planning, policy development, and grid modernization. The findings underscore the importance of tailored, data-driven SCM solutions that align with local grid conditions, ensuring a resilient, cost-effective transition to increasing EV adoption while safeguarding distribution system performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Balancing Charging Station Utilization and Throughput in Electric Vehicle Charging Stations with Queuing Theory

The rapid increase in electric vehicle (EV) adoption demands enhancements in the efficiency and adaptability of EV supply equipment (EVSE). Traditional EVSE systems often fail to optimize power delivery to meet the variable acceptance rates of EV batteries, resulting in significant energy wastage and reduced operational efficiency. This research addresses these challenges by integrating queuing theory with modular EVSE architectures, offering a dual strategy to optimize the operation of EV charging stations. A simulation model was developed to assess various configurations of charger capacities and outlet numbers. This model aimed to identify the optimal setup that maximizes station utilization while minimizing charging times and maximizing throughput. The model focused on charger capacities ranging from 50 to 250 kW and analyzed the different capacities’ effects on charging times and the number of vehicles served. The results indicate that a charger capacity of 125 kW is optimal, striking a balance between the charging time and the number of EVs served per hour, thus achieving the highest station utilization rate. This capacity allows for servicing a significant number of EVs with moderate increases in charging times. Lower capacities, although capable of serving more vehicles, lead to longer charging times and decreased throughput efficiency. The study underscores the effectiveness of combining queuing theory with flexible, modular charging systems that can dynamically adjust to EV charging demands.

Kumar, Praveen↗

Measurement placement in electric power transmission and distribution grids: Review of concepts, methods, and research needs

Sensing and measurement systems are quintessential to the safe and reliable operation of electric power grids. Their strategic placement is of ultimate importance because it is not economically viable to install measurement systems on every node and branch of a power grid, though they need to be monitored. An overwhelming number of strategies have been developed to meet oftentimes multiple conflicting objectives. The prime challenge in formulating the problem lies in developing a heuristic or an optimisation model that, though mathematically tractable and constrained in cost, leads to trustworthy technical solutions. Further, large-scale, long-term deployments pose additional challenges because the boundary conditions change as technologies evolve. For instance, the advent of new technologies in sensing and measurement, as well as in communications and networking, might impact the cost and performance of available solutions and shift initially set conditions. Also, the placement strategies developed for transmission grids might not be suitable for distribution grids, and vice versa, because of unique characteristics; therefore, the strategies need to be flexible, to a certain extent, because no two power grids are alike. Despite the extensive literature on the present topic, the focus of published works tends to be on a specific subject, such as the optimal placement of measurements to ensure observability in transmission grids. There is a dearth of work providing a comprehensive picture for developing optimal placement strategies. Because of the ongoing efforts on the modernisation of electric power grids, there is a need to consolidate the status quo while exposing its limitations to inform policymakers, industry stakeholders, and researchers on the research-and-development needs to push the boundaries for innovation. Accordingly, this paper first reviews the state-of-the-art considering both transmission and distribution grids. Then, it consolidates the key factors to be considered in the problem formulation. Finally, it provides a set of perspectives on the measurement placement problem, and it concludes with future research directions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Packing density optimization and recyclability of multi-modal SiC powder feedstocks in binder jet additive manufacturing

Achieving high powder packing density is critical in binder jet additive manufacturing (BJAM), as it directly influences the final part density, mechanical properties, and sintering behavior. Multi-modal powder blends, which combine particles of different sizes, have been explored as a strategy to optimize packing efficiency and minimize defects. In this study, bimodal and trimodal powder blends were obtained by mixing silicon carbide powder in three different sizes. These results show that increased powder density is achievable with bimodal powder blends but is reduced in trimodal blends, and it was found that a 13 % increase in the powder tap density was achieved using a bimodal blend of powder. The powder size distribution of the bimodal blend was measured at various stages during binder jet additive manufacturing and, no measurable powder separation occurred even after eight prints. Altogether, this study shows limited advantage to trimodal powder blends but good promise for bimodal blends for increasing printed density while maintaining reusability in the binder jet process.

Aguirre, Trevor G. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗

Facet Impact of CuMn 2 O 4 Spinel Nanocatalysts on Enhancement of the Oxygen Reduction Reaction in Alkaline Media

Surface-structure engineering represents an attractive strategy to optimize the energy conversion performance of nanocatalysts using their deliberately controlled exposed facets. To further exploit the potential of non-PGM-based spinel catalysts for alkaline oxygen reduction reaction (ORR), a cathodic fuel cell reaction, we hereby report a strategy of ORR improvement by controlling the crystallographic facets of ultra-small CuMn 2 O 4 spinel nanocatalysts through a developed colloidal synthesis approach. The synthesis of CuMn 2 O 4 nanocrystals with morphological control relies on the design and selection of the Cu-/Mn-precursors with striking discrepancies in reaction kinetics. Following carbon loading and an annealing post-treatment of the as-synthesized nanocatalysts, the exclusively {101} facet-exposed CuMn 2 O 4 spinel nano-octahedra exhibit improved electrocatalytic activity toward ORR in 1 M KOH, when compared to their spherical counterparts, exhibiting a mass activity (MA) of 37.6 A/g at 0.85 V. After 10,000 cycles of ORR durability test, the nano-octahedra still retain an MA of 24.5 A/g, which is twice that of the CuMn 2 O 4 spinel nanospheres. Structural characterizations after durability testing indicate that the MA decay is likely associated with a decrease in the Mn 3+ fraction and the emergence of Cu + on CuMn 2 O 4 nano-octahedral surfaces. Finally, as a paradigm, this synthesis approach could be extended to other Mn-based spinel nanocatalysts with precise shape control, enabling us to understand and establish the relationship between the surface lattice/valence state and electrocatalytic properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Advancing Grid Resilience through Smart Charge Management: Findings from Maryland’s Pilot

This report presents research findings from a four-year Smart Charge Management (SCM) pilot program conducted by Maryland’s largest electric utilities—Baltimore Gas and Electric (BGE), Potomac Electric Power Company (Pepco), and Delmarva Power & Light (DPL)—to evaluate strategies for optimizing electric vehicle (EV) charging loads and enhancing grid stability. Supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Argonne National Laboratory collaborated with all project partners and examined the effectiveness of Time-of-Use (TOU) and Load Balancing (LB) strategies in managing peak demand, deferring costly infrastructure upgrades, and reducing grid constraints at the feeder level.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Real Time Predictive and Adaptive Hybrid Powertrain Control Development via Neuroevolution

The real-time application of powertrain-based predictive energy management (PrEM) brings the prospect of additional energy savings for hybrid powertrains. Torque split optimal control methodologies have been a focus in the automotive industry and academia for many years. Their real-time application in modern vehicles is, however, still lagging behind. While conventional exact and non-exact optimal control techniques such as Dynamic Programming and Model Predictive Control have been demonstrated, they suffer from the curse of dimensionality and quickly display limitations with high system complexity and highly stochastic environment operation. This paper demonstrates that Neuroevolution associated drive cycle classification algorithms can infer optimal control strategies for any system complexity and environment, hence streamlining and speeding up the control development process. Neuroevolution also circumvents the integration of low fidelity online plant models, further avoiding prohibitive embedded computing requirements and fidelity loss. This brings the prospect of optimal control to complex multi-physics system applications. The methodology presented here covers the development of the drive cycles used to train and validate the neurocontrollers and classifiers, as well as the application of the Neuroevolution process.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Evolution and engineering of pathways for aromatic O -demethylation in Pseudomonas putida KT2440

In this study, biological conversion of lignin from biomass offers a promising strategy for sustainable production of fuels and chemicals. However, aromatic compounds derived from lignin commonly contain methoxy groups, and O-demethylation of these substrates is often a rate-limiting reaction that influences catabolic efficiency. Several enzyme families catalyze aromatic O-demethylation, but they are rarely compared in vivo to determine an optimal biocatalytic strategy. Here, two pathways for aromatic O-demethylation were compared in Pseudomonas putida KT2440. The native Rieske non-heme iron monooxygenase (VanAB) and, separately, a heterologous tetrahydrofolate-dependent demethylase (LigM) were constitutively expressed in P. putida, and the strains were optimized via adaptive laboratory evolution (ALE) with vanillate as a model substrate. All evolved strains displayed improved growth phenotypes, with the evolved strains harboring the native VanAB pathway exhibiting growth rates ~1.8x faster than those harboring the heterologous LigM pathway. Enzyme kinetics and transcriptomics studies investigated the contribution of selected mutations toward enhanced utilization of vanillate. The VanAB-overexpressing strains contained the most impactful mutations, including those in VanB, the reductase for vanillate O-demethylase, PP_3494, a global regulator of vanillate catabolism, and fghA, involved in formaldehyde detoxification. These three mutations were combined into a single strain, which exhibited approximately 5x faster vanillate consumption than the wild-type strain in the first 8 h of cultivation. Overall, this study illuminates the details of vanillate catabolism in the context of two distinct enzymatic mechanisms, yielding a platform strain for efficient O-demethylation of lignin-related aromatic compounds to value-added products.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Clinical practice gaps and challenges in non‐alcoholic steatohepatitis care: An international physician needs assessment

Abstract Background and aims Even as several pharmacological treatments for non‐alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are in development, the incidence of NASH is increasing on an international scale. We aim to assess clinical practice gaps and challenges of hepatologists and endocrinologists when managing patients with NASH in four countries (Germany/Italy/United Kingdom/United States) to inform educational interventions. Methods A sequential mixed‐method design was used: qualitative semi‐structured interviews followed by quantitative online surveys. Participants were hepatologists and endocrinologists practising in one of the targeted countries. Interview data underwent thematic analysis and survey data were analysed with chi‐square and Kruskal‐Wallis tests. Results Most interviewees ( n = 24) and surveyed participants (89% of n = 224) agreed that primary care must be involved in screening for NASH, yet many faced challenges involving and collaborating with them. Endocrinologists reported low knowledge of which blood markers to use when suspecting NASH (56%), when to order an MRI (65%) or ultrasound/FibroScan® (46%), and reported sub‐optimal skills interpreting alanine aminotransferase (ALT, 37%) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST, 38%) blood marker test results, causing difficulty during diagnosis. Participants believed that more evidence is needed for upcoming therapeutic agents; yet, they reported sub‐optimal knowledge of eligibility criteria for clinical trials. Knowledge and skill gaps when managing comorbidities, as well as skill gaps facilitating patient lifestyle changes were reported. Conclusions Educational interventions are needed to address the knowledge and skill gaps identified and to develop strategies to optimize patient care, which include implementing relevant care pathways, encouraging referrals and testing, and multidisciplinary collaboration, as suggested by the recent Global Consensus statement on NAFLD.

Lazure, Patrice↗

N-dopants optimize the utilization of spontaneously formed photocharges in organic solar cells

Non-fullerene acceptors (NFAs) not only bring rapid efficiency progress to organic solar cells (OSCs) but have also generated scientific interest in re-evaluating the photocharge generation route via spontaneous or heterojunction-assisted charge separation. In this work, we propose the addition of n-dopants as a strategy to optimize the utilization of spontaneously formed photocharges in NFAs and construct ultralow donor-content dilute bulk heterojunction (BHJ) devices to validate the dopant's roles. N-dopants enhance the transport length of spontaneously formed photocharges over twofold and alleviate the bimolecular recombination with balanced carrier mobility during charge extraction. This improves the photocurrent of ultralow donor-content dilute BHJ devices by over 2.4 times. Moreover, these benefits are successfully conducted to the BHJ devices, and enhancement of conversion efficiencies is observed in both the 100 nm and 400 nm thick OSCs. Our results provide a feasible way to optimize the intrinsic photocharges in NFAs and renew the possibility of efficient single-component OSCs as inorganic photovoltaic techniques.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Modeling Subsurface Performance of a Geothermal Reservoir Using Machine Learning

Geothermal power plants typically show decreasing heat and power production rates over time. Mitigation strategies include optimizing the management of existing wells—increasing or decreasing the fluid flow rates across the wells—and drilling new wells at appropriate locations. The latter is expensive, time-consuming, and subject to many engineering constraints, but the former is a viable mechanism for periodic adjustment of the available fluid allocations. In this study, we describe a new approach combining reservoir modeling and machine learning to produce models that enable such a strategy. Our computational approach allows us, first, to translate sets of potential flow rates for the active wells into reservoir-wide estimates of produced energy, and second, to find optimal flow allocations among the studied sets. In our computational experiments, we utilize collections of simulations for a specific reservoir (which capture subsurface characterization and realize history matching) along with machine learning models that predict temperature and pressure timeseries for production wells. We evaluate this approach using an “open-source” reservoir we have constructed that captures many of the characteristics of Brady Hot Springs, a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA. Selected results from a reservoir model of Brady Hot Springs itself are presented to show successful application to an existing system. In both cases, energy predictions prove to be highly accurate: all observed prediction errors do not exceed 3.68% for temperatures and 4.75% for pressures. In a cumulative energy estimation, we observe prediction errors that are less than 4.04%. A typical reservoir simulation for Brady Hot Springs completes in approximately 4 h, whereas our machine learning models yield accurate 20-year predictions for temperatures, pressures, and produced energy in 0.9 s. This paper aims to demonstrate how the models and techniques from our study can be applied to achieve rapid exploration of controlled parameters and optimization of other geothermal reservoirs.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Universal energy-speed-accuracy trade-offs in driven nonequilibrium systems

The connection between measure theoretic optimal transport and dissipative nonequilibrium dynamics provides a language for quantifying nonequilibrium control costs, leading to a collection of thermodynamic speed limits, which rely on the assumption that the target probability distribution is perfectly realized. This is almost never the case in experiments or numerical simulations, so here we address the situation in which the external controller is imperfect. We obtain a lower bound for the dissipated work in generic nonequilibrium control problems that (1) is asymptotically tight and (2) matches the thermodynamic speed limit in the case of optimal driving. Along with analytically solvable examples, we refine this imperfect driving notion to systems in which the controlled degrees of freedom are slow relative to the nonequilibrium relaxation rate, and identify independent energy contributions from fast and slow degrees of freedom. Furthermore, we develop a strategy for optimizing minimally dissipative protocols based on optimal transport flow matching, a generative machine learning technique. Furthermore, this latter approach ensures the scalability of both the theoretical and computational framework we put forth. Crucially, we demonstrate that we can compute the terms in our bound numerically using efficient algorithms from the computational optimal transport literature and that the protocols we learn saturate the bound.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Optimizing Ventilation Using Low-Cost Sensors to Improve Health, Safety, and Energy Efficiency

Air is the primary carrier of hazards within a space, whether it be hazardous byproducts of laboratory research activities or airborne pathogens. As a result, building ventilation is a primary defense against unseen airborne hazards. Critical laboratory facilities require effective mitigation of exposure to research-related, airborne hazards, providing a proving ground for effective ventilation strategies that optimize safety of occupants and reduce energy use. The heart of smart laboratory building operation is dynamic, analytics-based ventilation, which requires an in-depth intimate knowledge of building environmental conditions achieved through contaminant-detection systems. Unfortunately, currently many contaminant-detection solutions are expensive, elaborate systems that raise barriers for building managers. Through the successful deployment of a novel low-cost, modular sensor technology, we have developed a demand-control ventilation protocol effective in improving safety and reducing energy in critical laboratory environments. In this article, we will highlight best practices and lessons learned through this deployment that can be applied beyond laboratories. This article describes a low-cost sensor to support providing a safe, healthy building environment and reduce energy use through effective and efficient ventilation.

dynamic management of indoor air quality↗

Reinforcement Learning Control for Buildings Co-Optimizing Energy, Comfort, and Indoor Air Quality: An Annual Assessment

Efficient control of Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems is crucial for optimizing energy use and maintaining indoor comfort in buildings. Traditional control methods, such as PID control, cannot handle energy use trade-offs among multiple components in the building energy system at a supervisory level. Reinforcement learning (RL) presents a promising solution, offering adaptive and data-driven control strategies that optimize performance over time. However, RL also faces several challenges, including the conflicts encountered in co-optimizing energy savings, occupant comfort, and indoor air quality, and the requirement for extensive interactions with the environment in training. We proposed a flexible simulation platform that integrates a hybrid model for RL training and designed an RL agent to control the entire central HVAC system, focusing on co-optimizing energy consumption, thermal comfort, and indoor air quality ($\text{CO}_{2}$ and PM2.5 concentrations). Finally, we evaluated the RL agent's performance over an annual cycle. Our findings indicate that the RL agent can effectively manage the HVAC system with 14.7 % energy savings annually and balance multiple objectives, which demonstrates significant potential for improving HVAC system control and sustainability in buildings.

Guo, Fangzhou↗

Leveraging ARM Data to Improve Models for Predictive Understanding of Energy and Security Challenges

Extreme weather and natural hazards can disrupt the energy sector, affecting demand, generation, transmission, distribution, consumption and operational planning at regional and national scales. These disruptions stem from a broad range of atmospheric phenomena, including winter storms, freezing rain, wet snow loading, severe convection, flooding and landslides, wildfires, prolonged heat, and drought. Many of these same phenomena can also affect national security through impacts to transportation and infrastructure. To support the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) focus on energy resilience and national security, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility is uniquely positioned to contribute measurement data, analyses, and modeling frameworks that can significantly improve predictive understanding of these hazards to mitigate their effects. To explore this opportunity, ARM convened a two-part virtual workshop in November 2025. The workshop engaged interdisciplinary experts in atmospheric science, energy systems, modeling, and operations. The goal of the meeting was to engage with these interdisciplinary experts to address three questions: • What are examples of atmospheric processes that represent significant risks to energy security or national security and where are those risks greatest? • What measurements or measurement strategies would improve ARM’s capacity to address these issues? • How can ARM and users of the ARM facility better work with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and multi-sector modeling communities to apply ARM data to improving E3SM simulations of these phenomena? Participants were asked to submit white papers ahead of the meeting to initiate thinking on these themes and to help organize discussions. Workshop sessions were then organized around themes identified in the white papers. First from the white papers and then through subsequent discussions, workshop participants identified many examples that address the three questions listed above. Participants called out energy system vulnerabilities to weather phenomena such as the impact of freezing rain, strong winds, and excessive heat on power grids. They also noted the effects that weather phenomena could have on energy demand or supply (e.g., through effects of extreme temperatures). They called out security vulnerabilities such as impacts to crops from aerosol-borne pathogens and risks to industry due to melting permafrost in the Arctic. In all, over a dozen meteorological phenomena were linked to energy or security vulnerabilities. For many of the identified phenomena, participants pointed out where ARM was well poised to address issues (e.g., through measurements of cloud microphysics to inform studies of freezing rain) but also noted needs for additional measurements or modified measurement strategies. For example, adaptive scanning of severe weather would be valuable for probing winter storms or severe convection. Participants pointed out the value in integrating external observations with ARM measurements and with applying artificial intelligence (AI) to ARM observation analysis and they advocated for using model simulations to help optimize measurement strategies through Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). It was clear from the workshop that there are many ways that ARM observations can be used to mitigate energy and security concerns, but meeting participants were also asked to identify what they considered to be the greatest opportunities by ranking issues pertaining to the three workshop questions. This was accomplished through a survey administered to participants between the two virtual sessions. The highest-priority phenomena identified were winter storms, severe convection, and arctic processes. Discussion in the second session, therefore, focused primarily on these three areas, which were most fully developed in exploring ARM opportunities. Nevertheless, it was also clear that ARM has opportunities to contribute to all the identified topics. This report describes the workshop, including input from discussion and white papers (Sections 2 and 3) and a list of priority recommendations (section 4). Many other ideas for ARM contributions are discussed in individual white papers (Appendix D).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Projecting the number of new HIV infections to formulate the "Getting to Zero" strategy in Illinois, USA

Objectives: Getting to Zero (GTZ) initiatives focus on expanding use of antiretroviral treatment (ART) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to eliminate new HIV infections. Computational models help inform policies for implementation of ART and PrEP continuums. Such models, however, vary in their design, and may yield inconsistent predictions. Using multiple approaches can help assess the consistency in results obtained from varied modeling frameworks, and can inform optimal implementation strategies. Methods: A study using three different modeling approaches is conducted. Two approaches use statistical time series analysis techniques that incorporate temporal HIV incidence data. A third approach uses stochastic stimulation, conducted using an agent-based network model (ABNM). All three approaches are used to project HIV incidence among a key population, young Black MSM (YBMSM), over the course of the GTZ implementation period (2016-2030). Results: All three approaches suggest that simultaneously increasing PrEP and ART uptake is likely to be more effective than increasing only one, but increasing ART and PrEP by 20% points may not eliminate new HIV infections among YBMSM. The results further suggest that a 20% increase in ART is likely to be more effective than a 20% increase in PrEP. All three methods consistently project that increasing ART and PrEP by 30% simultaneously can help reach GTZ goals. Conclusions: Increasing PrEP and ART uptake by about 30% might be necessary to accomplish GTZ goals. Such scale-up may require addressing psychosocial and structural barriers to engagement in HIV and PrEP care continuums. ABNMs and other flexible modeling approaches can be extended to examine specific interventions that address these barriers and may provide important data to guide the successful intervention implementation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗