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NASA NTRS2023

M2-SCREAM: A Stratospheric Composition Reanalysis of Aura MLS Data With MERRA-2 Transport

MERRA-2 Stratospheric Composition Reanalysis of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (M2-SCREAM) is a new reanalysis of stratospheric ozone, water vapor, hydrogen chloride (HCl), nitric acid (HNO 3 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) between 2004 and the present (with a latency of several months). The assimilated fields are provided at a 50-km horizontal resolution and at a three-hourly frequency. M2-SCREAM assimilates version 4.2 Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) profiles of the five constituents alongside total ozone column from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument. Dynamics and tropospheric water vapor are constrained by the MERRA-2 reanalysis. The assimilated species are in excellent agreement with the MLS observations, except for HNO 3 in polar night, where data are not assimilated. Comparisons against independent observations show that the reanalysis realistically captures the spatial and temporal variability of all the assimilated constituents. In particular, the standard deviations of the differences between M2-SCREAM and constituent mixing ratio data from The Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer are much smaller than the standard deviations of the measured constituents. Evaluation of the reanalysis against aircraft data and balloon-borne frost point hygrometers indicates a faithful representation of small-scale structures in the assimilated water vapor, HNO 3 and ozone fields near the tropopause. Comparisons with independent observations and a process-based analysis of the consistency of the assimilated constituent fields with the MERRA-2 dynamics and with large-scale stratospheric processes demonstrate the utility of M2-SCREAM for scientific studies of chemical and transport variability on time scales ranging from hours to decades. Analysis uncertainties and guidelines for data usage are provided.

MERRA-2↗
NASA NTRS1992

Stratospheric turbulence measurements and models for aerospace plane design

Progress in computational atmospheric dynamics is exhibiting the ability of numerical simulation to describe instability processes associated with turbulence observed at altitudes between 15 and 25 km in the lower stratosphere. As these numerical simulation tools mature, they can be used to extend estimates of atmospheric perturbations from the present gust database for airplane design at altitudes below 15 km to altitudes between 25 and 50 km where aerospace plane operation would be at hypersonic speeds. The amount of available gust data and number of temperature perturbation observations are limited at altitudes between 15 and 25 km. On the other hand, in-situ gust data at higher altitudes are virtually nonexistent. The uncertain potential for future airbreathing hypersonic flight research vehicles to encounter strong turbulence at higher altitudes could penalize the design of these vehicles by undue cost or limitations on performance. Because the atmospheric structure changes markedly with altitude, direct extrapolation of gust magnitudes and encounter probabilities to the higher flight altitudes is not advisable. This paper presents a brief review of turbulence characteristics observed in the lower stratosphere and highlights the progress of computational atmospheric dynamics that may be used to estimate the severity of atmospheric transients at higher altitudes.

Ehernberger, L. J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Stratospheric turbulence measurements and models for aerospace plane design

Progress in computational atmospheric dynamics is exhibiting the ability of numerical simulation to describe instability processes associated with turbulence observed at altitudes between 15 and 25 km in the lower stratosphere. As these numerical simulation tools mature, they can be used to extend estimates of atmospheric perturbations from the present gust database for airplane design at altitudes below 15 km to altitudes between 25 and 50 km where aerospace plane operation would be at hypersonic speeds. The amount of available gust data and number of temperature perturbation observations are limited at altitudes between 15 and 25 km. On the other hand, in-situ gust data at higher altitudes are virtually nonexistent. The uncertain potential for future airbreathing hypersonic flight research vehicles to encounter strong turbulence at higher altitudes could penalize the design of these vehicles by undue cost or limitations on performance. Because the atmospheric structure changes markedly with altitude, direct extrapolation of gust magnitudes and encounter probabilities to the higher flight altitudes is not advisable. This paper presents a brief review of turbulence characteristics observed in the lower stratosphere and highlights the progress of computational atmospheric dynamics that may be used to estimate the severity of atmospheric transients at higher altitudes.

Ehernberger, L. J.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Use of satellite data and modeling to asses the influence of stratospheric processes on the troposphere

The research is comprised of the following tasks: use of simple analytical and numerical models of a coupled troposphere-stratosphere system to examine the effects of radiation and ozone on planetary wave dynamics and the tropospheric circulation; use of satellite data obtained from the Nimbus 7 Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) instrument and Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV) experiment, in conjunction with National Meteorological Center (NMC) data, to determine the planetary wave vertical structures, dominant wave spectra, ozone spectra, and time variations in diabatic heating rate; and synthesis of the modeling and observational results to provide a better understanding of the effects that stratospheric processes have on tropospheric dynamics.

Nathan, Terrence R.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Insights into the general circulation of the lower stratosphere from TOMS

Total ozone is controlled by dynamical advection as well as chemistry. At least for day-to-day variations, dynamical processes appear to be in control of total ozone. There also appears to be good evidence that seasonal and secular changes in total ozone are also dynamically controlled. For example, the zonal mean changes in total ozone in the two hemispheres in spring appear to be quite different. The TOMS total ozone data suggest a south polar spring upwelling while the Northern Hemisphere shows a clear downwelling in the same period. Radiative transfer computations support this conclusion. The secular changes in total ozone over the South Pole in spring indicate a change in dynamics rather than chemistry.

Schoeberl, Mark R.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Towards a theory of tropical/midlatitude mass exchange from the earth's surface through the stratosphere

The main focus of this work is to understand the dynamics of mass exchange between the tropics and the midlatitudes and to determine any links between tropospheric exchange and that in the stratosphere. We have approached this problem from two different perspectives. The first is aimed towards understanding the troposphere's role in inducing lower stratospheric tropical/midlatitude exchange. For this project we focus on observational analysis of the lower stratosphere to assess the key regions of transport in/out of the tropics and to what extent this transport is driven by tropospheric processes. The second approach is to determine the extent to which stratospheric processes influence the troposphere. In this project we are performing potential vorticity (PV) inversions to assess the winds induced near the tropopause when the stratospheric polar vortex is displaced equatorward. These are each discussed in more detail in the subsections below. Also, we have organized a session on Tropical/Midlatitude Interaction and Transport at the Fall AGU where we will be showing our latest results.

Hartley, Dana↗
NASA NTRS1995

Evaluation of Aircraft Platforms for SOFIA by Computational Fluid Dynamics

The selection of an airborne platform for the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA) is based not only on economic cost, but technical criteria, as well. Technical issues include aircraft fatigue, resonant characteristics of the cavity-port shear layer, aircraft stability, the drag penalty of the open telescope bay, and telescope performance. Recently, two versions of the Boeing 747 aircraft, viz., the -SP and -200 configurations, were evaluated by computational fluid dynamics (CFD) for their suitability as SOFIA platforms. In each configuration the telescope was mounted behind the wings in an open bay with nearly circular aperture. The geometry of the cavity, cavity aperture, and telescope was identical in both platforms. The aperture was located on the port side of the aircraft and the elevation angle of the telescope, measured with respect to the vertical axis, was 500. The unsteady, viscous, three-dimensional, aerodynamic and acoustic flow fields in the vicinity of SOFIA were simulated by an implicit, finite-difference Navier-Stokes flow solver (OVERFLOW) on a Chimera, overset grid system. The computational domain was discretized by structured grids. Computations were performed at wind-tunnel and flight Reynolds numbers corresponding to one free-stream flow condition (M = 0.85, angle of attack alpha = 2.50, and sideslip angle beta = 0 degrees). The computational domains consisted of twenty-nine(29) overset grids in the wind-tunnel simulations and forty-five(45) grids in the simulations run at cruise flight conditions. The maximum number of grid points in the simulations was approximately 4 x 10(exp 6). Issues considered in the evaluation study included analysis of the unsteady flow field in the cavity, the influence of the cavity on the flow across empennage surfaces, the drag penalty caused by the open telescope bay, and the noise radiating from cavity surfaces and the cavity-port shear layer. Wind-tunnel data were also available to compare to the CFD results; the data permitted an assessment of CFD as a design tool for the SOFIA program.

Klotz, S. P.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Relationship between ozone and temperature trends in the lower stratosphere: Latitude and seasonal dependences

A one-dimensional radiative transfer model with fixed dynamical heating is used to calculate the approximate latitude and seasonal dependences of lower stratospheric temperature changes associated with observed ozone trends. The spatial and temporal distribution of ozone profile trends in the lower stratosphere is estimated from a combination of Nimbus 7 Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV) global measurements of the ozone column below 32 mbar for the period 1979-1990 and balloon ozonesonde profile trends at northern middle latitudes. The calculated temperature trends near 100 mbar compare favorably with those recently derived by Randel and Cobb (1994) using data from Channel 4 of the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) on the NOAA operational satellites, although a number of quantitative differences are found. An independent analysis reported here of 100 mbar temperatures derived from northern hemisphere radiosonde data at the Free University of Berlin (FUB) supports the validity of the satellite-derived lower stratospheric temperature trends. These results are therefore generally consistent with the hypothesis that observed lower stratospheric cooling trends are predominantly determined by reductions in radiative heating associated with stratospheric ozone depletion.

Mccormack, John P.↗
NASA NTRS1985

A critical analysis of CLO and O3 in the mid-latitude stratosphere

The Caltech one-dimensional photochemical model is used to analyze important questions concerning the upper stratospheric O3 and the key HO(x), NO(x), and ClO(x) free radicals. The model is described and first order effects of the inclusion of diffuse radiation in a spherical rather than plane parallel atmosphere at solar zenith angles close to 90 deg are assessed. A comparison is made between photochemical theory and observations for upper stratospheric O3, where local photochemistry rather than dynamics should control the O3 abundance. The photochemical equilibrium relation for odd oxygen is studied, including the important radicals involves. It is concluded that a significant model ozone deficit exists in the upper stratosphere. Possible causes for such a discrepancy are investigated in light of current model and experimental uncertainties. In particular, the observational ratio of atomic oxygen to zone appears to disagree with the model results.

Froidevaux, L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Summer Monsoons in the UTLS as Observed By Recent NASA Airborne Campaigns.

During boreal summer, the circulation of the northern hemisphere upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) is dominated by two quasi-stationary anticyclonic eddies driven by latent heat released in the troposphere: the Asian Monsoon Anticyclone (AMA) and the North American Monsoon Anticyclone (NAMA). Deep convection rapidly transports boundary layer air to the UTLS, and the monsoon anticyclones act to partially confine and isolate air from the surrounding atmosphere. The interactions between chemistry and circulation within these systems are crucial for understanding the sensitivity of these regions to changes in climate and air quality. Satellite observations show that within the summer monsoon anticyclones is a region of enhanced water vapor, aerosol, and trace gases of boundary layer origin near the tropopause level. However, satellite data do not provide necessary details for process studies and for diagnosing their representations in models. In response to this need, NASA conducted two airborne missions to investigate these summer monsoon systems and their roles in climate. NASA Earth Venture Suborbital 3 (EVS-3) mission called Dynamics and Chemistry of the Summer Stratosphere (DCOTSS) completed two deployments in Salina, Kansas during summers 2021 and 2022 to study the NAMA. The Asian Summer Monsoon Chemical and Climate Impact Project (ACCLIP) was a multi-agency effort to investigate the AMA from Osan, South Korea in summer 2022.

Summer↗
NASA NTRS1984

A numerical analysis of transient planetary waves and the vertical structure in a meso-strato-troposphere model, part 1.4A

The structure of unstable planetary waves is computed by a quasi-geostrophic model extending from the surface up to 80 km by means of eigenvalue-eigenfunction techniques in spherical coordinates. Three kinds of unstable modes of distinct phase speeds and vertical structures are identified in the winter climate state: (1) the deep Green mode with its maximum amplitude in the stratosphere; (2) the deep Charney mode with its maximum amplitude in the troposphere: and (3) the shallow Charney mode which is largely confined to the troposphere. Both the Green mode and the deep Charney mode are characterized by very slow phase speeds. They are mainly supported by upward wave energy fluxes, but the local baroclinic energy conversion within the stratosphere also contributes in supporting these deep modes. The mesosphere and the troposphere are dynamically independent in the summer season decoupled by the deep stratospheric easterly. The summer mesosphere supports the easterly unstable waves 1-4. Waves 3 and 4 are identified with the observed mesospheric 2-day wave and 1.7-day wave, respectively.

Zhang, K. S.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Study of stratospheric-ionospheric coupling during thunderstorms and tornadoes

A continuous-wave-spectrum high-frequency Doppler sounder array with three transmitters at each of three sites was used to observe the dynamics of the coupling of energy between the stratosphere and the ionosphere. During times of severe weather activity wavelike disturbances have been detected on ground-based ionospheric sounding records as perturbations in electron densities. Infrasonic waves with wave periods of 3-7 min and with horizontal phase velocities of 600-800 m/s were observed when there was thunderstorm activity; gravity waves with wave periods of 10-15 min and horizontal phase velocities of 100-200 m/s were detected when there was tornado activity. Both triangulations from the cross correlation functions of the Doppler records based on an assumption of no background wind shear and ray-tracing computations including an assumed background wind shear indicate that the waves originated in the vicinity of the thunderstorms and tornadoes. A comparison of the wavelengths of the infrasonic and gravity waves observed at ionospheric heights and those in cloud-top pictures from satellites show that they are all of the order of 100-300 km.

Hung, R. J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning Forecasts of Rare Stratospheric Transitions from Short Simulations

Abstract Rare events arising in nonlinear atmospheric dynamics remain hard to predict and attribute. We address the problem of forecasting rare events in a prototypical example, sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Approximately once every other winter, the boreal stratospheric polar vortex rapidly breaks down, shifting midlatitude surface weather patterns for months. We focus on two key quantities of interest: the probability of an SSW occurring, and the expected lead time if it does occur, as functions of initial condition. These optimal forecasts concretely measure the event’s progress. Direct numerical simulation can estimate them in principle but is prohibitively expensive in practice: each rare event requires a long integration to observe, and the cost of each integration grows with model complexity. We describe an alternative approach using integrations that are short compared to the time scale of the warming event. We compute the probability and lead time efficiently by solving equations involving the transition operator, which encodes all information about the dynamics. We relate these optimal forecasts to a small number of interpretable physical variables, suggesting optimal measurements for forecasting. We illustrate the methodology on a prototype SSW model developed by Holton and Mass and modified by stochastic forcing. While highly idealized, this model captures the essential nonlinear dynamics of SSWs and exhibits the key forecasting challenge: the dramatic separation in time scales between a single event and the return time between successive events. Our methodology is designed to fully exploit high-dimensional data from models and observations, and has the potential to identify detailed predictors of many complex rare events in meteorology.

Finkel, Justin↗
NASA NTRS1990

Airborne lidar stratospheric ozone and aerosol investigations

The objectives are to study the distribution of ozone (O3) and aerosols across the polar regions during the winter and spring periods and to relate these observations to chemical and dynamical processes that can contribute to the chemical perturbation of the polar stratosphere and the possible destruction of O3. The distribution and characteristics of stratospheric aerosols and polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) are required to understand heterogeneous chemical processes that can lead to O3 depletion, and observation of O3 variations are important in the direct detection of O3 depletion and in tracing atmospheric dynamics. An airborne Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) system is operated in a zenith mode from the NASA DC-8 aircraft to obtain data on the large scale spatial variability of O3, and aerosol/PSC's in the lower stratosphere from about 11 to 23 km for O3, and 11 to 28 km for aerosols. The variability of O3 and aerosols/PSCs is studied in relation to chemical processes that can produce O3 depletion and to dynamics in the lower stratosphere that transport gases and aerosols inside the vortex and in some cases, across the edge of the vortex.

Browell, Edward V.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Composition Reanalyses at NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

Scientific Assessments of Ozone Depletion 2018 and 2022 report the recovery of Antarctic ozone, consistent with diminishing concentrations of halogens in the stratosphere. Both the size and the depth of the springtime ozone holes exhibit downward trends, particularly in September. Superimposed on the recovery trend are significant year-to-year fluctuations arising from dynamical variability potentially influenced by climate forcing and volcanic eruptions. Since 2018 the Antarctic stratosphere has experienced a wild parade of austral spring seasons with a sudden stratospheric warming and exceptionally high ozone in 2019 followed by large and long-lasting ozone holes in the following years, prompting questions about the speed and detectability of Antarctic ozone recovery and its potential connections to human-induced climate change. From the Australian New Years’ wildfires of 2020 to volcanic aerosols to the unprecedented injection of water vapor by the Hunga volcanic eruption, recent scientific literature on the subject investigates many factors that may or may not have contributed to this remarkable interannual variability. This presentation summarizes dynamical influences on springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone in recent years and discusses these results in the context of long-term trends. In particular, this work seeks to isolate dynamical and chemical contributions to the Antarctic springs since 2019 using a consistent methodological framework. Our analysis uses constituent and meteorological fields from the MERRA-2 Stratospheric Composition Reanalysis of Aura MLS (M2-SCREAM) in combination with data from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment – Fourier Transform Spectrometer and from ozone sondes. Using the high spatial and temporal resolution of M2-SCREAM, we analyze the daily evolution of southern polar ozone, HCl, N2O, and water vapor in dynamical flow-following coordinates relative to the location, size, and shape of the polar vortex. For vertically integrated stratospheric ozone we emphasize the importance of the wave-influenced geometry of the polar vortex and its vertical alignment. The ultimate purpose of this project is to contribute to the quantification of the speed of the Antarctic ozone recovery and associated uncertainties.

Krzysztof Wargan↗
NASA NTRS1998

Doubled CO2 Effects on NO(y) in a Coupled 2D Model

Changes in temperature and ozone have been the main focus of studies of the stratospheric impact of doubled CO2. Increased CO2 is expected to cool the stratosphere, which will result in increases in stratospheric ozone through temperature dependent loss rates. Less attention has been paid to changes in minor constituents which affect the O3 balance and which may provide additional feedbacks. Stratospheric NO(y) fields calculated using the GSFC 2D interactive chemistry-radiation-dynamics model show significant sensitivity to the model CO2. Modeled upper stratospheric NO(y) decreases by about 15% in response to CO2 doubling, mainly due to the temperature decrease calculated to result from increased cooling. The abundance of atomic nitrogen, N, increases because the rate of the strongly temperature dependent reaction N + O2 yields NO + O decreases at lower temperatures. Increased N leads to an increase in the loss of NO(y) which is controlled by the reaction N + NO yields N2 + O. The NO(y) reduction is shown to be sensitive to the NO photolysis rate. The decrease in the O3 loss rate due to the NO(y) changes is significant when compared to the decrease in the O3 loss rate due to the temperature changes.

Rosenfield, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Dynamics of two-year cosmic ray variations inferred from the data of spacecraft and stratospheric measurements and from the neutron monitor data in 1959-1981

The two year cosmic ray variations are studied using the spacecraft measurements of 1967 to 1976, the sonde measurements at high latitudes in the stratosphere (Murmansk, Mirny), and the neutron monitor data of 1959 to 1981. The two year variations are most pronounced from 1967 to 1975. An anticorrelation is observed between the two year variations in cosmic rays and in geomagnetic activity.

Charakhchyan, T. N.↗