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DOE OSTI2025

Monthly averages of ED2 model simulations initialized with airborne lidar structure, Jan 1981-Dec 2018, Brazilian Amazon

Deforestation and forest degradation (selective logging, fires, fragmentation) have impacted nearly 40% of the original extent of the Brazilian Amazon, and have markedly impacted forest structure across the region. To date, few studies analysed how shifts in forest structure from degradation influence the forest sensitivity to climate extremes, because of the complex interactions between forest structure and micro-environmental conditions. To address this knowledge gap, we carried out a series of simulations across the Brazilian Amazon using the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED2), using observed forest structure derived from 541 airborne lidar transects (375 ha each) and two scenarios representing forest recovery and expansion of degradation to investigate how shifts in forest structure impact ecosystem function under near-average and extreme climate conditions, as part of the manuscript Longo et al 2025 "Degradation and Deforestation Increase the Sensitivity of the Amazon Forest to Climate Extremes". This dataset provides the output results from the ED2 model simulations for the three simulations at monthly time scales, in NetCDF format. For all simulations, we used bias-corrected hourly reanalyses (WFDE5) for most meteorological drivers, except for precipitation, which was obtained from CHIRPS. The meteorological drivers used in the study span 38 years (Jan 1981–Dec 2018). The output results correspond to the last 38 years of simulation (one full cycle of meteorological drivers), in which ED2 simulations used static stand structure (i.e., the forest structure was held constant). The following files are provided:ED2_emean_Global_R004_BrAmaz_s1c0t0l0f0.nc. This corresponds to the Control simulation. The forest structure was obtained from the airborne lidar.ED2_emean_Global_R005_BrAmaz_s1c0t1l1f0.nc. This corresponds to the Degraded simulation. The forest structure was obtained from a spin-up simulation initialized with airborne lidar and a scenario that expanded deforestation and selective logging across the Amazon.ED2_emean_Global_R006_BrAmaz_s1c0t1l0f0.nc. This corresponds to the Recovery simulation. The forest structure was obtained from a spin-up simulation initialized with airborne lidar and a scenario that completely halted deforestation and degradation, allowing degraded forests to recover for 38 years.We also provide file ED2_zones_R004_BrAmaz_s1c0t0l0f0.nc, which classifies each grid cell into zones used in the reference manuscript: 1: Southeast. 2: South. 3: West. 4: Central. 5: Northeast. 6: North. 7: Northwest". Index 0 corresponds to grid cells excluded from sub-region analyses because they were dominated by flooded forests, deforestation, and naturally non-forest vegetation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

CO2 Profiling System for CO2 Storage (a1-level)

The Southern Great Plains (SGP) carbon dioxide flux (CO2FLUX) measurement systems provide half-hour average fluxes of CO2, H2O (latent heat), sensible heat, and momentum. The systems use the eddy covariance technique, which computes the fluxes from the vertical wind speed in combination with the concentrations of CO2 and H2O, temperature, and horizontal wind speed, respectively. A 3D sonic anemometer obtains the wind components and the temperature, while an infrared gas analyzer measures CO2 and H2O. A sub-system also measures half-hour averages of radiation, meteorological, and soil measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Surface impacts and associated mechanisms of a moisture intrusion into the Arctic observed in mid-April 2020 during MOSAiC

Distinct events of warm and moist air intrusions (WAIs) from mid-latitudes have pronounced impacts on the Arctic climate system. We present a detailed analysis of a record-breaking WAI observed during the MOSAiC expedition in mid-April 2020. By combining Eulerian with Lagrangian frameworks and using simulations across different scales, we investigate aspects of air mass transformations via cloud processes and quantify related surface impacts. The WAI is characterized by two distinct pathways, Siberian and Atlantic. A moist static energy transport across the Arctic Circle above the climatological 90th percentile is found. Observations at research vessel Polarstern show a transition from radiatively clear to cloudy state with significant precipitation and a positive surface energy balance (SEB), i.e., surface warming. WAI air parcels reach Polarstern first near the tropopause, and only 1–2 days later at lower altitudes. In the 5 days prior to the event, latent heat release during cloud formation triggers maximum diabatic heating rates in excess of 20 K d -1 . For some poleward drifting air parcels, this facilitates strong ascent by up to 9 km. Based on model experiments, we explore the role of two key cloud-determining factors. First, we test the role moisture availability by reducing lateral moisture inflow during the WAI by 30%. This does not significantly affect the liquid water path, and therefore the SEB, in the central Arctic. The cause are counteracting mechanisms of cloud formation and precipitation along the trajectory. Second, we test the impact of increasing Cloud Condensation Nuclei concentrations from 10 to 1,000 cm -3 (pristine Arctic to highly polluted), which enhances cloud water content. Resulting stronger longwave cooling at cloud top makes entrainment more efficient and deepens the atmospheric boundary layer. Finally, we show the strongly positive effect of the WAI on the SEB. This is mainly driven by turbulent heat fluxes over the ocean, but radiation over sea ice. The WAI also contributes a large fraction to precipitation in the Arctic, reaching 30% of total precipitation in a 9-day period at the MOSAiC site. However, measured precipitation varies substantially between different platforms. Therefore, estimates of total precipitation are subject to considerable observational uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Impact of Slantwise Descending Dry Intrusions on the Marine Boundary Layer and Air-Sea Interface Over the ARM Eastern North Atlantic Site

Dry intrusions (DIs) are synoptic-scale slantwise descending airstreams from the midlatitude upper troposphere toward the boundary layer at lower latitudes. Typically occurring behind cold fronts, such intrusions of dry air often reach the boundary layer and cause its deepening, thereby affecting boundary-layer clouds. Although subsidence is generally an inherent feature of the subtropical marine boundary layer (MBL), it is unclear how the MBL reacts to the transient, dynamically distinct DI. In this study, reanalysis data were combined with observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site (39.1 degrees N,28.0 degrees W) to characterize the impact of DIs on MBL characteristics and clouds. Specifically, an objective criterion is applied to the observations made during the winter months of 2016-2018 to identify the DI days from those before and following DIs, and reference periods without DIs. The analyses suggest substantial deepening of the well-mixed boundary layer accompanied by changes in the cloud, precipitation and thermodynamic properties during the DI events. During the DI, the lower troposphere cooled and dried substantially thereby inducing strong surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. All while a strong inversion builds up at the elevated MBL top affecting cloud occurrence. The results show DIs to affect the boundary layer and cloud structure at the ENA site similar to 21% of the time in winter months, with the response of the cloud fields to the DI-fronts substantially different than that to the non-DI fronts. Hence, the DI events should be considered while studying boundary layer and cloud processes in the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Remediating neutron damage in large area planar Ge-DSSD with amorphous germanium contacts through annealing and pulse-height correction

Large area, position sensitive planar germanium detectors offer new opportunities in -ray spectroscopy. For in-beam studies remediating neutron damage is important. This work studied a mechanically cooled circular planar 9 × 1 cm wafer with orthogonal 16 × 16 amorphous germanium strip electrodes. Before neutron irradiation the wafer was heated in-cryostat to above 373 K for more than 24 h in order to test the robustness of the contacts and the mechanical cooler. No deterioration in performance was observed. The detector was then exposed to controlled doses of 2.2 MeV neutrons, produced from the 7 Li(p,n) 7 Be reaction until substantial damage was observed. Averaged over the surface of the wafer, a flux of 1.9(1) x 10 9 n/cm 2 was delivered. The detector then survived thermal cycling and 350 K (~77°C) annealing for 70 h which substantially reduced hole trapping. pulse-height correction is investigated to further mitigate the neutron damage. Higher temperature annealing at 365 K was not successful.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Verification of Spent Fuel Inside Dry Storage Casks Using Neutron Mapping (2022 Midyear Report)

Development of a spent-fuel verification method based upon positional measurement of fast neutrons emitted from the top surface of the dry storage casks. A proof-of-principle field test on a partially loaded spent-fuel cask will be conducted by measuring the fast neutron flux on the top of the cask as a function of position using a single detector. If a useful verification signature is demonstrated, a multi-detector scanning array will be built and tested to demonstrate a practical rapid verification system.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

First study of Hohlraum x-ray preheat asymmetry inside an ICF capsule

In indirect drive inertial confinement fusion (ICF), laser induced Hohlraum preheat radiation (so-called M-band, >1.8 keV) asymmetry will lead to asymmetric ablation front and ablator–fuel interface hydrodynamic instability growth in an imploding capsule. First experiments to infer the M-band asymmetries at the capsule were performed on the National Ignition Facility for high density carbon (HDC) ICF capsules in low density fill (0.3 mg/cc 4 He) Au Hohlraums by time resolved imaging of 2.3 keV fluorescence emission of a smaller Mo sphere placed inside the capsule. In this study, the measured Mo emission is pole hot (P 2 > 0) since M-band is generated mainly by the outer laser beams as their irradiance at the Hohlraum wall is 5× higher than for the inner beams. P 2 has a greater negative than positive swing vs time [Δ(P 2 /P 0 )/Δt ~ 0.2/ns], giving insight into laser heated Hohlraum dynamics. P 4 asymmetry is small at the sphere due to efficient geometric smoothing of Hohlraum asymmetries at large Hohlraum -to-capsule ratios. The M-band P 2 history is qualitatively reproduced by radiation hydrodynamic HYDRA simulations. The smaller P 2 than that calculated earlier suggests either less outer beam spot motion and/or preheat emission. At late times, the observed P 2 swing is larger and P 4 is more negative than simulated, which could be due to inner beams being stopped more in the outer beams wall plasma bubble than simulated. Asymmetry at the HDC capsule inner surface (“ice–ablator interface”) is also inferred from the Mo emission asymmetry by an analytic viewfactor model, accounting for the Mo/HDC radius difference and HDC capsule opacity.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS) evapotranspiration product Version 5.0: Algorithm development and preliminary validation

An accurate estimation of spatially and temporally continuous global terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) is essential in the assessment of surface energy, water and carbon cycles. The Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS) ET product Version 4.0 (v4.0) based on the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method was generated to estimate global terrestrial ET. However, certain uncertainty for the GLASS ET product v4.0 limits its application. In this study, we introduced the deep neural networks (DNN) merging framework to improve terrestrial ET estimation for GLASS ET product Version 5.0 (v5.0) generation by integrating five satellite-derived ET products [Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ET product (MOD16), Shuttleworth–Wallace dual-source ET product (SW), Priestley–Taylor-based ET product (PT-JPL), modified satellite-based Priestley–Taylor ET product (MS-PT) and simple hybrid ET product (SIM)]. We compared the performance of DNN method against other merging methods, including GLASS ET algorithm v4.0 (BMA), the gradient boosting regression tree (GBRT) method and the random forest (RF) method, based on 195 global eddy covariance (EC) flux towers covering observations from 2000 through 2015. Validations indicated that the DNN had the highest accuracy among four merging methods across different land cover types, yielding the highest average determination coefficients (R 2 , 0.62), root-mean-squared-error (RMSE, 24.1 W/m 2 ) and Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE, 0.77) with a of 99% confidence interval. Compared with GLASS ET algorithm v4.0, the DNN improved on the R 2 by approximately 7% (p < 0.01) and the KGE by 10%. Based on the DNN, we then generated 8-day GLASS ET product v5.0 globally with a 1 km spatial resolution from 2001 to 2015 driven by GLASS vegetation and surface net radiation (R n ) datasets and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA2) datasets. Finally, this global terrestrial ET product provides a valuable dataset for monitoring regional and global water resources and environmental changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

In-plasma photo-assisted etching of Si with chlorine aided by an external vacuum ultraviolet source

Photo-assisted etching of p-type Si was previously found to occur in a chlorine-containing, Faraday-shielded, inductively coupled plasma (ICP), and this was attributed to the vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) light generated by the plasma. Other causes for the very high etching rates were ruled out, including ion bombardment. In the present study, the substrate in the main Cl2/Ar ICP was subjected to extra VUV light that was generated in an independently controlled, auxiliary Ar/He ICP in tandem with the main ICP. The ICPs were separated by a tungsten mesh and a bundle of high-aspect-ratio quartz tubes in a honeycomb configuration. There was no measurable perturbation of the main plasma by the auxiliary plasma. The etching rate was found to be enhanced by 11%–51% with the additional VUV light provided by the auxiliary ICP. With absolute measurements of the auxiliary ICP photon flux at the sample surface, as described elsewhere, incredibly large etching yields of 90–240 Si atoms per photon were obtained. It is argued that etching is not a result of electron–hole pair formation but is instead ascribed to a photocatalytic chain reaction.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mechanical and Thermal Forcing for Upslope Flows and Cumulus Convection over the Sierras de Córdoba

Abstract The upslope flow processes affecting the vertical extent of orographic cumulus convection are examined using observations from the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign. Specifically, clear air returns from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) second-generation C-band scanning Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) precipitation radar (CSAPR2) are used to characterize the structure and variability of the ridge-normal (i.e., up/downslope) flow components, which transport mass to the crest of Argentina’s Sierras de Córdoba and contribute to convective initiation. Data are compiled for the entire CACTI period (October–April), including days with clear skies, shallow cumuli, cumulus congestus, and deep convection. To examine shared variability among >70 000 radar scans, we use (i) a principal component analysis (PCA) to isolate modes of variability in the upslope flow and (ii) composite analysis based on convective outcomes, determined from GOES-16 satellite observations. These data are contextualized with observed surface sensible heat fluxes, thermodynamic profiles, and synoptic-scale analysis. Results indicate distinct thermally and mechanically forced upslope flow modes, modulated by diurnal heating and synoptic-scale variations, respectively. In some instances, there is a superposition of thermal and mechanical forcing, yielding either deeper or shallower upslope flow. The composite analyses based on satellite data show that successively deeper convective outcomes are associated with successively deeper upslope flow layers that more readily transport mass to the ridge crest in conjunction with lower lifting condensation levels, facilitating convective initiation. These results help to isolate the forcing mechanisms for orographic convection and thus provide a foundation for parameterizing orographic convective processes in coarse resolution models.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2026

Model-observation discrepancies in Arctic moisture intrusions: causes and pathways for improved simulation

Arctic moisture intrusions (MIs), narrow filaments of strong moisture transport, are key drivers of poleward moisture flux and Arctic weather extremes, yet their representation in climate models is poorly understood. Using a new Arctic MI detection algorithm, we document persistent biases across three CMIP generations (CMIP3–CMIP6): models overestimate MI occurrence over the Pacific sector and underestimate it over the Atlantic sector. These errors stem from misrepresented midlatitude westerly jets, with an equatorward North Atlantic jet associated with too few Atlantic MIs, and a poleward, weakened North Pacific jet linked to too many Pacific MIs. Experiments that correct sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration biases and increase atmospheric resolution improve jet structure and MI statistics, while a cloud-locking simulation indicates that better high-frequency cloud–radiation–circulation interactions can yield further gains. Our results clarify pathways to reducing long-standing MI and jet biases, providing guidance for improving simulations of Arctic and midlatitude climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Strategic Survey of Antineutrino-based Nonproliferation Technologies

Antineutrinos carry approximately 3% of the total energy released in fission processes. As a consequence, nuclear energy production provides by far the brightest antineutrino sources on Earth. Antineutrino interactions with ordinary matter are weak and these particles cannot be shielded, making them an ideal signature of fissioning systems. However, the same property makes antineutrinos difficult to detect. Antineutrino detection technologies have matured in recent years, and emerging detection approaches warrant further investment. For near-field applications, the major enabling technological advancement, reported in 2018, is the conclusive detection of the antineutrino spectrum in segmented detectors operating at the surface with minimal shielding. For far-field applications, the highlights are the routine detection of reactor antineutrinos at hundreds of kilometer standoff in the kiloton-scale KamLAND and Borexino liquid scintillator detectors, and in particular the observation of the residual South Korean reactor antineutrino flux in KamLAND following the Fukushima disaster that led to shutdown of reactors in Japan

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Implementation of a Time-domain Cosmic-Ray-Muon Tagger for the NEXUS Low-background Cryogenic Facility

Quantifying the effects of radiation on the operation of qubits both as quantum information systems as well as particle detectors has emerged as a pressing issue in quantum science in recent years. We present an overview of the design, operation, and deployment of a 90-$\mathrm{in}^2$ three-panel muon detector for use in the NEXUS experimental facility at Fermilab to temporally isolate correlated errors in qubits and determine if they possess an astrophysical origin. Constructed with three scintillator-attached PMTs read out with NIM modules in a triply-coincident logic scheme, we measure a surface-level muon luminosity of 9.7425 muons per second---consistent with an average surface-level cosmic-ray flux of approximately one muon per square centimeter per minute. Integrating the NIM modules with an MCC 128 DAQ HAT and Raspberry Pi, a Python script records exactly when a muon struck the detector and writes a timestamp to a log file for follow-up cross referencing. This experiment will broadly contribute to further studies aimed at understanding the source and mitigation of information loss in qubits.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Implementation of a Time-domain Cosmic-ray-muon Tagger for the NEXUS Low-background Cryogenic Facility

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

On the Diffusivity of Moist Static Energy and Implications for the Polar Amplification Response to Climate Warming

Energy balance models (EBMs) have been widely used in a range of climate problems, but the assumption of constant diffusivity in the parameterization of the moist static energy (MSE) flux can be hardly justified. We demonstrate in this study that the diffusive MSE flux can be derived from the basic energy balance equation with a few tolerable assumptions. The estimated diffusivity is both spatially and seasonally dependent, and its midlatitude average is then tested against several scaling theories for the midlatitude eddy diffusivity. The result supports the diffusivity theory of Held and Larichev (1996) modified for the moist atmosphere, affording a dynamics-based parameterization of MSE diffusivity. The implementation of the parameterization in an EBM leads to an interactive MSE diffusivity that accounts for the midlatitude eddy response to climate forcing perturbations. Under a uniform radiative forcing, the EBM with a diffusivity so parameterized produces a weakening of the midlatitude diffusivity and a modestly polar-amplified surface temperature response as an inevitable outcome under the dual constraints of the nonlinear Clausius-Clapeyron relation and the temperature gradient-dependent diffusivity, even in the absence of any poleward amplifying radiative feedbacks. As the consequence of more isothermal temperature and reduced diffusivity, the variance of the midlatitude surface temperature also decreases with warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

High-efficiency, air-stable manganese–iron oxide nanoparticle-pigmented solar selective absorber coatings toward concentrating solar power systems operating at 750 °C

Solar selective absorber coating with long-term thermal stability at high temperatures ≥750 °C in air is an important component to reduce the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of concentrating solar power (CSP) systems toward 50% power efficiency and dispatchable solar electricity. Conventionally, solar spectral selectivity requires multilayer-interference coatings implemented by stringently controlled vacuum deposition, and these coatings degrade significantly at >700 °C in air. Herein, we established a quantitative design approach and demonstrated a proof-of-concept air-stable, manganese–iron oxide nanoparticle (NP)-pigmented solar selective coatings with a high solar absorptance of ~93%, a relatively low thermal emittance of ~52%, and an optical-to-thermal energy conversion efficiency >89% under 1,000× solar concentration at 750 °C toward Generation 3 CSP systems. These coatings demonstrate spectral selectivity using cost-effective spray coating approach, a notable improvement over conventional vacuum-deposited, multilayer solar selective coatings for low-cost, high-efficiency solar thermal receivers. In contrast to the thermal degradation of spectrally non-selective benchmark Pyromark 2500 coatings at 750 °C in air, the solar absorptance of the MnFe 2 O 4 -pigmented coatings on stainless steel 310 (SS 310) substrates is increased to ~92.9% and the optical-to-thermal energy conversion efficiency is improved to 89.7% after serving at 750 °C in air for 700 h. X-ray diffraction results reveal that this improvement is due to the transformation of MnFe 2 O 4 NPs into more thermodynamically stable, non-stoichiometric manganese-rich manganese ferrite and iron-rich manganese–iron oxide phases after 500 h aging at 750 °C. For >1,000 h-endurance testing at 750 °C in air and the subsequent 19 day-night thermal cycling between 750 °C (12 h/cycle) and 25 °C (12 h/cycle) on SS 310 substrates, the thermal degradation is mainly due to the CrO x microflake formation from SS 310 substrates rather than the coatings, which can be suppressed by preoxidizing the surface of SS 310. With lower emittance matrix material and further optimization of pigment NP stoichiometry, concentration, and coating thickness, it is promising to achieve an optimized thermal efficiency ≥92.5% with long-term thermal stability at 750 °C for Generation 3 CSP systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Converting existing optical detectors into fast x-ray detectors

Here, the very short burn time and small size of burning plasmas created at advanced laser-fusion facilities will require high-spatial-resolution imaging diagnostics with fast time resolution. These instruments will need to function in an environment of extremely large neutron fluxes that will cause conventional diagnostics to fail because of radiation damage and induced background levels. One solution to this challenge is to perform an ultrafast conversion of the x-ray signals into the optical regime before the neutrons are able to reach the detector and then to relay image the signal out of the chamber and into a shielded bunker, protected from the effects of these neutrons. With this goal in mind, the OMEGA laser was used to demonstrate high-temporal-resolution x-ray imaging by using an x-ray snout to image an imploding backlighter capsule onto a semiconductor. The semiconductor was simultaneously probed with the existing velocity interferometry system for any surface reflector (VISAR) diagnostic, which uses an optical streak camera and provided a one-dimensional image of the phase in the semiconductor as a function of time. The phase induced in the semiconductor was linearly proportional to the x-ray emission from the backlighter capsule. This approach would then allow a sacrificial semiconductor to be attached at the end of an optical train with the VISAR and optical streak camera placed in a shielded bunker to operate in a high neutron environment and obtain time-dependent one-dimensional x-ray images or time-dependent x-ray spectra from a burning plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Carbon Accumulation, Flux, and Fate in Stordalen Mire, a Permafrost Peatland in Transition

Abstract Stordalen Mire is a peatland in the discontinuous permafrost zone in arctic Sweden that exhibits a habitat gradient from permafrost palsa, to Sphagnum bog underlain by permafrost, to Eriophorum ‐dominated fully thawed fen. We used three independent approaches to evaluate the annual, multi‐decadal, and millennial apparent carbon accumulation rates (aCAR) across this gradient: seven years of direct semi‐continuous measurement of CO 2 and CH 4 exchange, and 21 core profiles for 210 Pb and 14 C peat dating. Year‐round chamber measurements indicated net carbon balance of −13 ± 8, −49 ± 15, and −91 ± 43 g C m −2 y −1 for the years 2012–2018 in palsa, bog, and fen, respectively. Methane emission offset 2%, 7%, and 17% of the CO 2 uptake rate across this gradient. Recent aCAR indicates higher C accumulation rates in surface peats in the palsa and bog compared to current CO 2 fluxes, but these assessments are more similar in the fen. aCAR increased from low millennial‐scale levels (17–29 g C m −2 y −1 ) to moderate aCAR of the past century (72–81 g C m −2 y −1 ) to higher recent aCAR of 90–147 g C m −2 y −1 . Recent permafrost collapse, greater inundation and vegetation response has made the landscape a stronger CO 2 sink, but this CO 2 sink is increasingly offset by rising CH 4 emissions, dominated by modern carbon as determined by 14 C. The higher CH 4 emissions result in higher net CO 2‐equivalent emissions, indicating that radiative forcing of this mire and similar permafrost ecosystems will exert a warming influence on future climate.

Holmes, M. E.↗