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At least 307 records · Page 17

Shock initiation and hot spots in plastic-bonded 1,3,5-triamino-2,4,6-trinitrobenzene (TATB)

TATB (1,3,5-triamino-2,4,6-trinitrobenzene) is a powerful explosive whose dynamical behavior is difficult to study because TATB is so insensitive to initiation by shock waves. We used a tabletop microscope equipped with 0–4.5 km/s laser-launched flyer plates to study shock initiation of TATB, which was fabricated in the form of an array of hundreds of plastic-bonded explosive minicharges (X-TATB = 80% TATB + 20% Sylgard 182 polymer). The 4 ns shocks from the flyer plates were not effective in initiating TATB, but we also developed a two-layer array where flyers first initiated a plastic-bonded PETN (pentaerythritol tetranitrate) charge (X-PETN = 80% PETN + 20% Sylgard), which drove an initiating 25 ns shock into the X-TATB. Thermal emission from shocked X-TATB was used to measure time-dependent temperature profiles with a resolution of 2 ns and to produce high-speed (5 ns) videos. In X-TATB, flyer plates produced 2500–3500 K hot spots and combustion at 2500 K. With X-PETN initiators, X-TATB had 3500–4000 K hot spots and a powerful volume explosion lasting a few nanoseconds. Prospects for producing TATB detonations on a tabletop are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Optically multiplexed neutron time-of-flight technique for inertial confinement fusion

Neutron time-of-flight (nTOF) detectors are crucial in diagnosing the performance of inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments, which implode targets of deuterium–tritium fuel to achieve thermonuclear conditions. These detectors utilize the fusion neutron energy spectrum to extract key measurements, including the hotspot ion temperature and fuel areal density. Previous work [Danly et al., Rev. Sci. Instrum. 94, 043502 (2023)] has demonstrated adding 1D spatial resolution to an nTOF-like detector using a neutron aperture and streak camera to measure the ion temperature profile of an ICF implosion. By contrast, the study presented herein explores modifying the 1D detector to use a fast photomultiplier tube (PMT) to validate the design of a 2D spatially resolved instrument based on reconstruction from 1D profiles. The modification would collect time-of-flight traces from separate scintillators in an imaging array with one PMT using optical fibers of varying lengths to time-multiplex the signals. This technique has been demonstrated in ride-along experiments on the OMEGA laser with 20 fiber-coupled scintillator channels connected to a Photek PMT210. Results provide constraints on the fiber lengths and PMT gating requirements to promote pulse fidelity throughout all channels. Calibration of the detector to fixed nTOFs can provide a preliminary estimate of the instrument response function (IRF), although measurement of the IRF is currently under way. These results suggest that nTOF signals can potentially be time-multiplexed with fibers so long as the design is strategic to mitigate signal-to-noise reduction, modal dispersion, and charge build-up in the PMT, which has implications beyond ion temperature imaging.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Tethered balloon-borne profile measurements of atmospheric properties in the cloudy atmospheric boundary layer over the Arctic sea ice during MOSAiC: Overview and first results

The tethered balloon-borne measurement system BELUGA (Balloon-bornE moduLar Utility for profilinG the lower Atmosphere) was deployed over the Arctic sea ice for 4 weeks in summer 2020 as part of the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate expedition. Using BELUGA, vertical profiles of dynamic, thermodynamic, aerosol particle, cloud, radiation, and turbulence properties were measured from the ground up to a height of 1,500 m. BELUGA was operated during an anomalously warm period with frequent liquid water clouds and variable sea ice conditions. Three case studies of liquid water phase, single-layer clouds observed on 3 days (July 13, 23, and 24, 2020) are discussed to show the potential of the collected data set to comprehensively investigate cloud properties determining cloud evolution in the inner Arctic over sea ice. Simulated back-trajectories show that the observed clouds have evolved within 3 different air masses (“aged Arctic,” “advected over sea ice,” and “advected over open ocean”), which left distinct fingerprints in the cloud properties. Strong cloud top radiative cooling rates agree with simulated results of previous studies. The weak warming at cloud base is mostly driven by the vertical temperature profile between the surface and cloud base. In-cloud turbulence induced by the cloud top cooling was similar in strength compared to former studies. From the extent of the mixing layer, it is speculated that the overall cloud cooling is stronger and thus faster in the warm oceanic air mass. Larger aerosol particle number concentrations and larger sizes were observed in the air mass advected over the sea ice and in the air mass advected over the open ocean.

Arctic↗

Effects of break geometry and orientation on helium-air mixing in simulated reactor cavities of high temperature gas reactors

Here, this study experimentally examined the spatial and temporal variations in air and helium concentrations and temperature fields within simulated reactor cavities of a High Temperature Gas Reactor (HTGR) following helium discharge into an initially air-filled reactor cavity system. Detailed temperature maps were generated using a combination of fiber optics temperature sensor and multiple thermocouple probes within the simulated reactor cavities. The research scenario involved a hypothetical small pipe break in the Reactor Pressure Vessel, resulting in the release of high-temperature helium into the surrounding cavity. A scaled multi-compartment experimental facility, modeled after the General Atomics Modular High Temperature Gas Reactor (GA-MHTGR) design, was constructed for helium and air mixing experiments. Oxygen sensors and thermocouple probes were installed in all five cavities to measure the concentrations of oxygen (or helium) and the temperature distributions of the gas mixture. The experimental findings highlighted the significant impact of the injected helium jet velocity on the gas mixing process and demonstrated how the direction of the helium jet influences the air-helium temperature profiles within the cavities.

Air-ingress↗

W-band system-on-chip electron cyclotron emission imaging system on DIII-D

Monolithic, millimeter wave “system-on-chip” (SoC) technology has been employed in heterodyne receiver integrated circuit radiometers in a newly developed Electron Cyclotron Emission Imaging (ECEI) system on the DIII-D tokamak for 2D electron temperature profile and fluctuation evolution diagnostics. Here, a prototype module operating in E-band (72-80 GHz) was first employed in a 2 x 10 element array that demonstrated significant improvements over the previous quasi-optical Schottky diode mixer arrays during the 2018 operational campaign of the DIII-D tokamak. For compatibility with International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) relevant scenarios on DIII-D, the SoC ECEI system was upgraded with 20 horn-waveguide receiver modules. Each individual module contains a University of California at Davis designed W-band (75 -110 GHz) receiver die that integrates a broadband low noise amplifier (LNA), a double balanced down-converting mixer, and a x4 multiplier on the local oscillator (LO) chain. A x2 multiplier and two IF amplifiers are packaged and selected to further boost the signal strength as well as downconvert the signal frequency. The upgraded W-band array exhibits > 30 dB additional gain and 20x improvement in noise temperature comparing with the previous Schottky diode radio frequency (RF) mixer input systems; an internal 8 times multiplier chain is used to bring down the LO frequency below 12 GHz, thereby obviating the need for a large aperture for quasi-optical LO coupling and replacing it with coaxial connectors. The horn-waveguide shielding housing avoids out-of-band noise interference on each individual module. The upgraded ECEI system plays an important role for absolute electron temperature evolution and fluctuation measurements for edge and core region transport physics studies.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Multiscale Porous High-temperature Heat Exchanger Using Ceramic Co-extrusion

In this project, our MIT, Purdue, and GE team aims to design, model, fabricate, and test a novel high temperature, compact, and durable ceramic heat exchanger to be operated under high temperature and pressure conditions for aerospace applications. Our approach is grounded in introducing multiscale porosity, i.e., centimeter-scale channels embedded with micrometer-scale channels, into the ceramic heat exchanger to significantly improve its heat transfer performance and mechanical strength while maintaining minimal pressure losses. We first developed high-fidelity thermal-fluid-mechanical model capable of precisely capturing the heat transfer rate, temperature profile, pressure drop, and mechanical stress throughout the entire heat exchanger design. Guided by our model, we identified the optimal design parameters for the SiC heat exchanger body and manifolds. Then, we established a completed fabrication procedure to create multiscale features in the ceramic heat exchanger, including co-extrusion, lamination, burnout, and sintering. We fabricated multiple heat exchanger bodies consisting of 6 × 6 and 3 × 3 centimeter-scale channels where each individual centimeter-scale channel comprises 625 crack-free microchannels with 90 μm × 90 μm opening. Owing to the multiscale features, our fabricated heat exchanger bodies exhibited desirable mechanical strength with 156 MPa flexural strength under 1300 Celsius degree. Despite the demonstrated highly tailorable microscopic features and superior mechanical strength, we identified delamination due to the complex interaction among ceramic, polymer, and gas species can be a critical challenge to create fully defect-free heat exchanger, which requires further fundamental investigations in future works. To test the heat exchanger performance, we constructed a high-temperature and high-pressure experimental apparatus that can be safely operated under 400 Celsius degree and 4 bar. With insights gained from mechanistic modeling, material development, and detailed characterization, a cost model was finally developed to understand the market potential of the developed technology, where a cost of $43,000 Celsius degree/kW was envisioned. This project developed a transformative approach to high-performance heat exchanger design. The thermal-fluid-mechanical design approach developed in this project can serve as a generic tool to guide the design of various heat-exchangers operated under high-temperature and high-pressure conditions. The material fabrication approach established in this project can be a useful guide for ceramic processing at extreme length scales.

42 ENGINEERING↗

MESOSCALE THERMAL TRANSPORT MEASUREMENTS OF MULTI-PHASE AND POROUS NUCLEAR FUELS USING A SQUARE-WAVE PULSE THERMOREFLECTANCE TECHNIQUE

The safe and efficient operation of nuclear reactors require accurate knowledge of peak temperatures in the fuel assemblies. The temperature profiles are governed by the thermal transport properties of the fuel, namely the thermal conductivities (k) and thermal diffusivities (D). These values can be very difficult to measure as they are known to vary considerably from the measured bulk values of the fresh fuel, and quickly degrade with increasing burnup [1 -3] . Laser-based techniques have been effectively used for non-destructive and non-contact thermal transport measurements of a wide variety of materials, including nuclear materials [4-6] that would otherwise prove too hazardous or difficult to measure otherwise. In this study, a new thermoreflectance technique known as square-pulse transient thermoreflectance (SPTR) is described and used to determine the mesoscale thermal diffusivity of both uranium sesquisilicide (U3Si2) and uranium nitride (UN) phases in a composite fuel with micron level spatial resolution [7]. This technique employs a rapid train of square-wave pulses from an excitation laser to create a periodic heat flux on a gold coated sample surface. Surface adsorption results in transient film temperatures and hence rapid fluctuations in thermoreflectance that can be measured via a detection laser coupled with a digital oscilloscope. The lasers are coaxially focused on the sample surface, allowing for a sample measurement area of a single convolved laser spot size (~2 µm). A sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify key measurement parameters of this technique using reference materials with a range of thermal conductivities comparable to those of both ceramic, composite, and metal nuclear fuel types (1.4 – 27.2 W/m-K). The reference materials were measured using the new technique as well as a spatial-domain thermoreflectance technique (SDTR) previously reported for a comparison [8]. Additionally, measurements of several U3Si2 and UN phase regions of a polished UN/U3Si2 (70/30 vol.%) sample were taken, and the resulting calculated D values are reported, with both techniques showing excellent agreement between samples. This technique was used to scan a multiphase region at 5 micron increments to generate a local diffusivity map, demonstrating the utility of the techniques for measuring thermal transport properties in specimens with precipitates and secondary phases. Furthermore, the technique is currently being applied to measure thermal properties of Fast Flux Test Reactor (FFTR) irradiated metal fuel specimens whose porous microstructure make it very difficult to measure using other techniques. Comparison of the local scale measurements are compared with the pre-irradiated fuel samples to show the degradation of thermal transport in fuels due to pores from fission gas bubbles and other irradiation induced defects.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Quantification of the effect of uncertainty on impurity migration in PISCES-A simulated with GITR

A Bayesian inference strategy has been used to estimate uncertain inputs to global impurity transport code (GITR) modeling predictions of tungsten erosion and migration in the linear plasma device, PISCES-A. This allows quantification of GITR output uncertainty based on the uncertainties in measured PISCES-A plasma electron density and temperature profiles (n e , T e ) used as inputs to GITR. The technique has been applied for comparison to dedicated experiments performed for high (4 × 10 22 m –2 s –1 ) and low (5 × 10 21 m –2 s –1 ) flux 250 eV He–plasma exposed tungsten (W) targets designed to assess the net and gross erosion of tungsten, and corresponding W impurity transport. The W target design and orientation, impurity collector, and diagnostics, have been designed to eliminate complexities associated with tokamak divertor plasma exposures (inclined target, mixed plasma species, re-erosion, etc) to benchmark results against the trace impurity transport model simulated by GITR. The simulated results of the erosion, migration, and re-deposition of W during the experiment from the GITR code coupled to materials response models are presented. Specifically, the modeled and experimental W I emission spectroscopy data for a 429.4 nm line and net erosion through the target and collector mass difference measurements are compared. Furthermore, the methodology provides predictions of observable quantities of interest with quantified uncertainty, allowing estimation of moments, together with the sensitivities to plasma temperature and density.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Verification of an improved equation-free projective integration method for neoclassical plasma-profile evolution in tokamak geometry

A brute-force, long-time gyrokinetic simulation of plasma profile evolution in magnetic fusion devices is not desirable due to large computational resource requirements and a possible accumulation of numerical error. The equation-free projective integration method of Keverekidis et al. [Commun. Math. Sci. 1(4), 715–762 (2003)] is one of the outstanding candidates in projecting micro-scale simulations to a longer timescale. However, its application to tokamak plasma has not been fruitful due to the appearance of spurious transient oscillations in the lifting process, which are present when the kinetic simulations are initialized with a simplified model distribution function and which make the kinetic simulations to deviate from the desired paths. In this work, a kinetically informed lifting algorithm is added to the equation-free projective integration method, which is then verified in the electrostatic gyrokinetic particle-in-cell code XGCa [R. Hager and C. S. Chang, Phys. Plasmas 23, 042503 (2016)] for a neoclassical ion heat transport problem with adiabatic electrons. This new lifting operator is demonstrated to control spurious transients, enabling an over four-times reduction in the overall computing time in the time-evolution of the ion temperature profile in an axisymmetric toroidal plasma. Further reduction in the computing time is found to be limited due to the stability properties of the linear least squares projective integrator.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

H- and Dissociation in Ultra-hot Jupiters: A Retrieval Case Study of WASP-18b

Atmospheres of a number of ultra-hot Jupiters (UHJs) with temperatures ≳2000 K have been observed recently. Many of these planets show largely featureless thermal spectra in the near-infrared observed with the HST WFC3 spectrograph (1.1–1.7 μm) even though this spectral range contains strong H{sub 2}O opacity. Recent works have proposed the possibility of H- opacity masking the H{sub 2}O feature and/or thermal dissociation of H{sub 2}O causing its apparent depletion at the high temperatures of UHJs. In this work, we test these hypotheses using observations of the exoplanet WASP-18b as a case study. We report detailed atmospheric retrievals of the planet using the HyDRA retrieval code, extended to include the effects of H- opacity and thermal dissociation. We report constraints on the H{sub 2}O, CO, and H- abundances as well as the pressure–temperature profile of the dayside atmosphere for retrievals with and without H-/dissociation for each data set. We find that the H{sub 2}O and H- abundances are relatively unconstrained given the featureless WFC3 spectra. We do not conclusively detect H- in the planet, contrary to previous studies that used equilibrium models to infer its presence. The constraint on the CO abundance depends on the combination of WFC3 and Spitzer data, ranging from solar to super-solar CO values. We additionally see signs of a thermal inversion from two of the data sets. Our study demonstrates the potential of atmospheric retrievals of UHJs, including the effects of H- and thermal dissociation of molecules.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Electron cyclotron emission measurements and modeling in optically semi-transparent plasma on the HSX stellarator

On the Helically Symmetric Experiment (HSX), electron cyclotron emission (ECE) at the second harmonic of the electron gyrofrequency is measured with a 16-channel heterodyne receiver. An ECE radiometer diagnostic has been calibrated with a broadband frequency source, allowing independent measurements of the electron temperature. The antenna pattern has a significant impact on the measurements, and modeling its effect is necessary to produce an ECE radiation temperature spectrum. Measurements, calibration results, and modeling of the ECE data are presented in this paper. At a relatively high plasma density, HSX plasmas are thermal, and the radiation temperature measured by the radiometer is in good agreement with the electron temperature measured by a Thomson scattering diagnostic. At a relatively low plasma density, the deviation from a Maxwellian distribution is large, and asymmetry in the radiation temperature profile is measured. These measurements are supported by single-pass and multi-pass ray tracing calculations of the electron cyclotron emission using the TRAVIS ray tracing code. Thermal and nonthermal electron populations exist in HSX, and the effect of these populations on the asymmetry in the measured emission is presented.

Cyclotron radiation↗

Oilwell Conversion (Well API 121913310501) to Geothermal Heat Storage Well for Flexible Electricity Storage

Geothermal growth is limited by a lack of geographically dispersed high-temperature thermal resources and high initial upfront investment in characterization and well construction. This project intended to address the challenges of energy supply intermittency and enhance grid resilience, reliability, and energy security by storing energy provided from currently available renewable resources in the subsurface to harvest it a later time during at-peak energy demand. This project intended to improve geothermal adoption, reduce initial project risk, and improve price competitiveness through utilizing existing oil and gas infrastructure such as non-productive wells, non-economic fields, dry holes, and orphaned wells. The project also intended to address the lack of geographically dispersed thermal resources and enhance grid resilience, reliability, and energy security by introducing an economical method for storing energy from currently available renewable resources in the subsurface for usage during at-peak energy demand. During this research, the project furthered the understanding of the feasibility of utilizing abandoned oil and gas wells as geothermal heat storage wells. The project team investigated the heat storage and hydrogeological characteristics of subsurface reservoirs in the Illinois Basin to evaluate their response to heat injection for determining the evolution of temperature profiles and heat losses over time using existing and available data sets. The project team then performed modeling and simulation to evaluate the heat losses of returning fluids during heat extraction. The outputs were used to select an optimal candidate reservoir and location in Southern Illinois. The team designed and performed a small-scale field test in an existing oil well to refine the model and to demonstrate the permitting and regulatory pathways necessary for the conversion of oil and gas assets to geothermal use. The field test also serves as a proof of concept and can guide the procedures for future research and implementation. Additionally, the project team, conducted initial market research and customer discovery to develop a go to market strategy for an Advanced Geothermal Energy Storage (AGES) system. The project team in this research also identified the parameters to be refined in future research, to improve the current go to market strategy economic model. To this end several subject matter experts were also identified to assist in future research with geothermal infrastructure setup, energy storage policy and law, energy storage market demand, potential siting based on demand etc. Future research will involve further sophistication of the site commercial modeling, implementing a larger-scale test, and further refinement of the thermodynamic modeling/simulation process. The output will be lifecycle costs and economics suitable for comparison to alternative approaches from a validated full-scale demonstration for venture capital investment into this technology. The project successfully demonstrated the ability to leverage existing oilfield infrastructure, permits, and land access and leasing agreements, to enable geothermal storage projects to come online faster and cheaper than a greenfield development could. This technology could allow for greater energy independence and security through long-term energy storage solutions. The longer duration allows for greater storage for renewables currently limited by hours-long storage durations of lithium-ion. The AGES system would support the growth of renewable energy farms, and provide greater opportunities for a cleaner energy infrastructure.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Advanced absorber heat integration via heat exchange packings

A rate-based model of an absorption column was developed and used to analyze several intercooling strategies utilizing “heat exchange packings.” These packings are capable of removing heat from the column and transferring it to a cooling fluid within the packing. For absorption of CO 2 into aqueous monoethanolamine under industrial conditions, intercooling via heat exchange packings placed along 10–20% of the column could reduce the column height by ~15%. The height of these columns was close to the minimum theoretical value, calculated by numerically optimizing the temperature profile. Effective intercooling could also be achieved by using the cool, rich solvent as the cooling fluid. This reduces the cooling load and facilitates recovery of waste heat. Heat exchange packings could also be used to redistribute heat within the column, reducing the column height with no net cooling load. However, this approach requires larger heat transfer coefficients than have been experimentally observed.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

A Green's Function Wind Turbine Induction Model That Incorporates Complex Inflow Conditions

ABSTRACT In this work, we develop a new analytical turbine induction model that can incorporate complex inflow conditions including cases where the wind velocity and temperature profiles can vary as functions of height. This induction model is derived from the linearized Navier–Stokes and leads to a second‐order ODE that can be solved using a Green's function formulation. The corresponding Green's function for several configurations are found including the infinite domain, semi‐infinite domain with ground plane, and a power law velocity inflow profile. The results of this approach are then compared with simulations of the turbine induction field using the AMR‐Wind CFD solver with a uniformly loaded actuator disk model. These comparisons show that the Green's function approach captures the centerline blockage, three‐dimensional blockage flow field, and streamwise velocity slow down, with very good agreement for lower thrust conditions and at larger distances away from rotor disk. The effects of shear on the turbine blockage were also compared using a power law inflow profile, and we show that this approach matches the CFD predictions for the cases considered.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Crystal plasticity model of residual stress in additive manufacturing using the element elimination and reactivation method

Selective laser melting is receiving increasing interest as an additive manufacturing technique. Residual stresses induced by the large temperature gradients and inhomogeneous cooling process can favour the generation of cracks. In this work, a crystal plasticity finite element model is developed to simulate the formation of residual stresses and to understand the correlation between plastic deformation, grain orientation and residual stresses in the additive manufacturing process. The temperature profile and grain structure from thermal-fluid flow and grain growth simulations are implemented into the crystal plasticity model. An element elimination and reactivation method is proposed to model the melting and solidification and to reinitialize state variables, such as the plastic deformation, in the reactivated elements. The accuracy of this method is judged against previous method based on the stiffness degradation of liquid regions by comparing the plastic deformation as a function of time induced by thermal stresses. The method is used to investigate residual stresses parallel and perpendicular to the laser scan direction, and the correlation with the maximum Schmid factor of the grains along those directions. The magnitude of the residual stress can be predicted as a function of the depth, grain orientation and position with respect to the molten pool. The simulation results are directly comparable to X-ray diffraction experiments and stress–strain curves.

316 stainless steel↗

Effects of Solidification Cooling Rates on Microstructures and Physical Properties of Fe-6.5%Si Alloys

Compared to the widely used Fe-3.2wt%Si steel, Fe-6.5wt%Si has superior electric and magnetic properties, including higher electrical resistivity, lower iron loss, higher permeability, and near zero magnetostriction. However, Fe-6.5wt%Si sheet is difficult to produce using traditional manufacturing processes as the high silicon content favors the formation of ordered phases that embrittle the material. Fortunately, these ordered phases can be suppressed if the alloy is cooled fast enough from a high temperature kinetically trapping the disordered solid solution or amorphous state. Planar flow casting is known for its rapid solidification rate. In order to consider it as a viable method to manufacture ductile Fe-6.5wt%Si sheets, the effect of cooling rate on physical properties of Fe-6.5wt%Si alloy are systematically investigated. In this work, various cooling rates are achieved by changing melt-spin wheel speeds, which significantly affect the solidification temperature profile and have profound effects on ordering, microstructures, textures, hardness, and magnetic properties. High cooling rates result in refined grains, reduced ordering, enhanced <100> out of the plane texture, decreased hardness, and increased coercivity. This study demonstrates a critical cooling rate at ~1.7 × 10 5 K/s, corresponding to a tangential wheel speed of 5-7 m/s, below which the hardness significantly increases in agreement with the sudden increase of the ordered phases that causes the material embrittlement.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Embedding condition describing shearing, dissipative collapse

Highlights: • Perturbative approach to the time-dependent Karmarkar condition in shearing collapse. • Analysis of the (in)stability of the collapsing fluid using the TOV equation. • Study of the temperature profiles using a causal heat transport equation. In this work we employ the time-dependent Karmarkar condition to model dissipative gravitational collapse in the presence of shear which leads to a final static configuration. We believe that this is a first attempt at using the time-dependent Karmarkar condition describing a radiating star with shear in which the collapsing core dissipates energy in the form of a radial heat flux. The final static configuration which is described by an embedding class I spacetime was obtained by Hansraj and Moodly who showed that this solution satisfies all the physical requirements for a static compact object. As the collapse proceeds and the heat flux tends to zero the dynamical core evolves into a static compact core with the exterior spacetime being described by the vacuum Schwarzschild solution.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

An iterative bidirectional gradient boosting approach for CVR baseline estimation

Here this paper presents a novel Iterative Bidirectional Gradient Boosting Model (IBi-GBM) for estimating the baseline of Conservation Voltage Reduction (CVR) programs. In contrast to many existing methods, we treat CVR baseline estimation as a missing data retrieval problem. The approach involves dividing the load and its corresponding temperature profiles into three periods: pre-CVR, CVR, and post-CVR. To restore the missing load profile during the CVR period, the method employs a three-step process. First, a forward-pass GBM is executed using data from the pre-CVR period as inputs. Subsequently, a backward-pass GBM is applied using data from the post-CVR period. The two restored load profiles are reconciled, considering pre-calculated weights derived from forecasting accuracy, and only the leftmost and rightmost points are retained. The newly restored points are then included as inputs for the subsequent iteration. This iterative procedure continues until the original load data in the CVR period is fully restored. We develop IBi-GBM using actual smart meter and Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) data. Our results demonstrate that IBi-GBM exhibits robust performance across various data resolutions and in different seasons and outperforms existing methods by achieving a 1-2% reduction in normalized Root Mean Square Error (nRMSE).

42 ENGINEERING↗