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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Large‐Scale Statistically Meaningful Patterns (LSMPs) Associated With Precipitation Extremes Over Northern California

Abstract We analyze large‐scale statistically meaningful patterns (LSMPs) that precede extreme precipitation (PEx) events over Northern California (NorCal). We find LSMPs by applying k‐means clustering to the two leading principal components of daily 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies two days before the onset, from October to March during 1948–2015. Statistical significance testing based on Monte Carlo simulations suggests a minimum of four statistically distinguished LSMP clusters. The four LSMP clusters are characterized as Northwest continental negative height anomaly, Eastward positive “Pacific‐North American Pattern (PNA),” Westward negative “PNA,” and Prominent Alaskan ridge. These four clusters, shown in multiple variables, evolve very differently and have differing links to the Arctic and tropical Pacific regions. Using binary forecast skill measures and a new copula‐based framework for predicting PEx events, we find LSMP indices that are useful predictors of NorCal PEx events, with moisture‐based variables being the best predictors of PEx events at least 6 days before the onset, and the lower atmospheric variables being better than their upper atmospheric counterparts any day in advance tested. To ensure statistical rigor, the LSMPs analyzed here (with the modified acronym) include local tests of both significance and consistency, which are not always featured in the literature on large‐scale meteorological patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pathways to IEC Standards for Heliostat Design Qualification and Site Acceptance in Central Receiver CSP Applications

This paper surveys the existing landscape of standards relevant to heliostats, identifies their gaps, and proposes a path forward to a comprehensive set of heliostat guidelines, technical specifications, and standards under the framework of International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) TC 117. Gaps in existing guidelines and standards are surveyed using a three-tiered taxonomy: component-level, heliostat-level, and field-level. At each level, the gap analysis is followed by a proposal for a coordinated path forward on the development of standards. At the component level, advances in the understanding of wind loading should inform a technical specification for drives and structures. Reflectors require consolidation of measurement guidelines into existing standards documents. Communications & controls require technical standards to inform their selection and secure implementation. At the heliostat level, IEC 62817 (solar trackers) adequately characterizes drive systems, structures, and electronics, but requires adaptation to heliostats' use patterns, operating modes, and expected life cycles. IEC 62817 does not address heliostat beam quality and pointing accuracy, but the process for determining both is elaborated in the SolarPACES Guideline for Heliostat Performance Testing. This SolarPACES document requires two main modifications: adaptation to IEC language and inclusion of testing after heliostats which have undergone accelerated weathering and mechanical cycling (to understand performance degradation). At the field level, IEC 62862-4-2 addresses the function and control of heliostat fields but does not cover the statistically rigorous testing of heliostat groups, or field performance factors like security and soiling. The addition of documents under IEC-62862-4 is proposed to address this gap.

beam↗
DOE OSTI2024

Large-database cross-verification and validation of tokamak transport models using baselines for comparison

State-of-the-art 1D transport solvers ASTRA and TRANSP are verified, then validated across a large database of semi-randomly selected, time-dependent DIII-D discharges. Various empirical models are provided as baselines to contextualize the validation figures of merit using statistical hypothesis tests. For predicting plasma temperature profiles, no statistically significant advantage is found for the ASTRA and TRANSP simulators over a baseline empirical (two-parameter) model. For predicting stored energy, a significant advantage is found for the simulators over a baseline empirical model based on confinement time scaling. Uncertainty in the results due to diagnostic and profile fitting uncertainties is approximated and determined to be insignificant due in part to the large quantity of discharges employed in the study. Advantages are discussed for validation methodologies like this one that employ (1) large databases and (2) baselines for comparison that are specific to the intended use-case of the model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2008

Progress of Ongoing NASA Lithium-Ion Cell Verification Testing for Aerospace Applications

A Lithium-ion Verification and Validation Program with the purpose to assess the capabilities of current aerospace lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery cells to perform in a low-earth-orbit (LEO) regime was initiated in 2002. This program involves extensive characterization and LEO life testing at ten different combinations of depth-of-discharge, temperature, and end-of-charge voltage. The test conditions selected for the life tests are defined as part of a statistically designed test matrix developed to determine the effects of operating conditions on performance and life of Li-ion cells. Results will be used to model and predict cell performance and degradation as a function of test operating conditions. Testing is being performed at the Naval Surface Warfare Center/Crane Division in Crane, Indiana. Testing was initiated in September 2004 with 40 Ah cells from Saft and 30 Ah cells from Lithion. The test program has been expanded with the addition of modules composed of 18650 cells from ABSL Power Solutions in April 2006 and the addition of 50 Ah cells from Mine Safety Appliances Co. (MSA) in June 2006. Preliminary results showing the average voltage and average available discharge capacity for the Saft and Lithion packs at the test conditions versus cycles are presented.

McKissock, Barbara I.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Case Studies for the Statistical Design of Experiments Applied to Powered Rotor Wind Tunnel Tests

The application of statistical Design of Experiments (DOE) to helicopter wind tunnel testing was explored during two powered rotor wind tunnel entries during the summers of 2012 and 2013. These tests were performed jointly by the U.S. Army Aviation Development Directorate Joint Research Program Office and NASA Rotary Wing Project Office, currently the Revolutionary Vertical Lift Project, at NASA Langley Research Center located in Hampton, Virginia. Both entries were conducted in the 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel with a small portion of the overall tests devoted to developing case studies of the DOE approach as it applies to powered rotor testing. A 16-47 times reduction in the number of data points required was estimated by comparing the DOE approach to conventional testing methods. The average error for the DOE surface response model for the OH-58F test was 0.95 percent and 4.06 percent for drag and download, respectively. The DOE surface response model of the Active Flow Control test captured the drag within 4.1 percent of measured data. The operational differences between the two testing approaches are identified, but did not prevent the safe operation of the powered rotor model throughout the DOE test matrices.

Overmeyer, Austin D.↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Precision of Product Consistency Tests with Environmental Assessment Glass

Several series of triplicate tests conducting following the ASTM C1285 product consistency test method have been performed using samples of Environmental Assessment glass in Teflon™ and steel test vessels. The results of tests with test parameters within the ranges specified in the PCT method A procedure were used to calculate repeatability and reproducibility precision statistics for tests in each type of vessel. These show the test response and test precision attained in tests conducted in Teflon™ and stainless steel test vessels are statistically indistinguishable.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1991

A neural network for the identification of measured helicopter noise

The results of a preliminary study of the components of a novel acoustic helicopter identification system are described. The identification system uses the relationship between the amplitudes of the first eight harmonics in the main rotor noise spectrum to distinguish between helicopter types. Two classification algorithms are tested; a statistically optimal Bayes classifier, and a neural network adaptive classifier. The performance of these classifiers is tested using measured noise of three helicopters. The statistical classifier can correctly identify the helicopter an average of 67 percent of the time, while the neural network is correct an average of 65 percent of the time. These results indicate the need for additional study of the envelope of harmonic amplitudes as a component of a helicopter identification system. Issues concerning the implementation of the neural network classifier, such as training time and structure of the network, are discussed.

Cabell, R. H.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Peak-acceleration limiter

Statistical limiter, which protects test specimens during random vibration testing, differentiates between peak acceleration levels that are normal components of vibration signal and those that exhibit damaging characteristics. Device aborts test only when statistical properties of vibration signal change significantly or when catastrophic transient occurs.

Woodbury, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS2018

ExMASS: A viable model for authentic student-scientist research partnerships

The Exploration of the Moon and Asteroids by Secondary Students (ExMASS) program provides students the opportunity to conduct authentic, student-led, open-inquiry research with assistance from their teacher and a scientist. One goal of the program is to enhance participants’ attitudes toward science. Most students enter the ExMASS program with positive attitudes toward science. However, the attitude survey developed for ExMASS measured small but statistically significant increases in attitudes. This paper discusses the ExMASS program, an attitude towards science survey designed for the program’s specific audience, and the results of statistical analyses of the survey. The validity of the attitudes survey was tested with an exploratory factor analysis (EFA). The results of the EFA revealed two salient factors measured by the survey: 1) Personal Importance of Science and 2) Importance of Science to Society. A reliability analysis revealed a Cronbach alpha value of 0.89. Paired t-tests revealed statistically significant differences in students’ attitudes before and after the program. For Factor 1, participants’ before scores were statistically significantly lower than their post scores, t(88) = 3.16, p<0.05. For Factor 2, participants’ before scores were statistically significantly lower than their post scores, t(88) = 4.47, p<0.05. ExMASS has been shown to be a practical model for programs designed to increase high school student attitudes toward science. More information on the ExMASS program is available at https://www.lpi.usra.edu/exploration/education/hsResearch/.

science↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probing the consistency of cosmological contours for supernova cosmology

As the scale of cosmological surveys increases, so does the complexity in the analyses. This complexity can often make it difficult to derive the underlying principles, necessitating statistically rigorous testing to ensure the results of an analysis are consistent and reasonable. This is particularly important in multi-probe cosmological analyses like those used in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and the upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time, where accurate uncertainties are vital. In this paper, we present a statistically rigorous method to test the consistency of contours produced in these analyses and apply this method to the Pippin cosmological pipeline used for type Ia supernova cosmology with the DES. We make use of the Neyman construction, a frequentist methodology that leverages extensive simulations to calculate confidence intervals, to perform this consistency check. A true Neyman construction is too computationally expensive for supernova cosmology, so we develop a method for approximating a Neyman construction with far fewer simulations. We find that for a simulated dataset, the 68% contour reported by the Pippin pipeline and the 68% confidence region produced by our approximate Neyman construction differ by less than a percent near the input cosmology; however, they show more significant differences far from the input cosmology, with a maximal difference of 0.05 in $Ω$ M and 0.07 in w. In conclusion, this divergence is most impactful for analyses of cosmological tensions, but its impact is mitigated when combining supernovae with other cross-cutting cosmological probes, such as the cosmic microwave background.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1986

Statistical corrections to numerical predictions. IV

The National Meteorological Center Barotropic-Mesh Model has been used to test a statistical correction procedure, designated as M-II, that was developed in Schemm et al. (1981). In the present application, statistical corrections at 12 h resulted in significant reductions of the mean-square errors of both vorticity and the Laplacian of thickness. Predictions to 48 h demonstrated the feasibility of applying corrections at every 12 h in extended forecasts. In addition to these improvements, however, the statistical corrections resulted in a shift of error from smaller to larger-scale motions, improving the smallest scales dramatically but deteriorating the largest scales. This effect is shown to be a consequence of randomization of the residual errors by the regression equations and can be corrected by spatially high-pass filtering the field of corrections before they are applied.

Schemm, Jae-Kyung↗
NASA NTRS1992

Fault detection using a two-model test for changes in the parameters of an autoregressive time series

This article describes an investigation of a statistical hypothesis testing method for detecting changes in the characteristics of an observed time series. The work is motivated by the need for practical automated methods for on-line monitoring of Deep Space Network (DSN) equipment to detect failures and changes in behavior. In particular, on-line monitoring of the motor current in a DSN 34-m beam waveguide (BWG) antenna is used as an example. The algorithm is based on a measure of the information theoretic distance between two autoregressive models: one estimated with data from a dynamic reference window and one estimated with data from a sliding reference window. The Hinkley cumulative sum stopping rule is utilized to detect a change in the mean of this distance measure, corresponding to the detection of a change in the underlying process. The basic theory behind this two-model test is presented, and the problem of practical implementation is addressed, examining windowing methods, model estimation, and detection parameter assignment. Results from the five fault-transition simulations are presented to show the possible limitations of the detection method, and suggestions for future implementation are given.

Scholtz, P.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Linear Mixed-Effects Models for Human-in-the-Loop Tracking Experiment Data

Linear mixed-effects models provide several benefits over more traditional statistical inference tests that are particularly useful for most human-in-the-loop tracking experiment data. However, surprisingly, mixed models are virtually not used for the analysis of tracking experiment data. This paper uses of linear mixed-effects models to analyze combined tracking data from two previous human-in-the-loop roll tracking experiments that compared control behavior metrics collected in both a research aircraft and a motion-base simulator. In the experiments, pilots' behavior under 10 different motion configurations with varying motion filter gains and break frequencies was evaluated and compared to that in the real aircraft. The linear mixed-effects model analysis on the combined dataset confirmed the main statistical outcomes of the individual experiments. The main benefits of mixed models for this type of data were demonstrated by successfully combining data from two experiments that used different experimental conditions and of which one had an additional apparatus and the other a missing participant. Finally, the mixed-model analysis was able to explicitly test for scientifically relevant statistical differences in the dependent measures between the aircraft and simulator, as well as both experiments.

manual control↗
NASA NTRS2000

Combined dietary and exercise intervention for control of serum cholesterol in the workplace

PURPOSE: To elucidate a potential combined dietary and exercise intervention affect on cardiovascular risk reduction of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Headquarters employees. DESIGN: A nonexperimental, longitudinal, clinical-chart review study (1987 to 1996) of an identified intervention group and a reference (not a control) group. SETTING: The study group worked in an office environment and participated in the annual medical examinations. SUBJECTS: An intervention group of 858 people with initially elevated serum cholesterol, and a reference group of 963 people randomly sampled from 10% of the study group. MEASURES: Serum cholesterol data were obtained for both groups, respectively, from pre- and postintervention and annual examinations. The reference group was adjusted by statistical exclusion of potential intervention participants. Regression equations (cholesterol vs. study years) for the unadjusted/adjusted reference groups were tested for statistical significance. INTERVENTION: An 8-week individualized, combined dietary and exercise program was instituted with annual follow-ups and was repeated where warranted. RESULTS: Only the unadjusted (but not the adjusted) reference group with initial mean total serum cholesterol levels above 200 mg/dL shows a significant 9-year decline trend and significant beta coefficient tests. An intervention effect is suggested. Mean high density lipoprotein cholesterol rose slightly in the intervention group but was maintained in the reference group. CONCLUSION: With potential design limitations, the NASA intervention program focusing on a high risk group may be associated to some degree, if not fully, with an overall cardiovascular risk profile improvement.

Occupational Health Services↗
NASA NTRS1977

Shuttle payload vibroacoustic test plan evaluation

Statistical decision theory is used to evaluate seven alternate vibro-acoustic test plans for Space Shuttle payloads; test plans include component, subassembly and payload testing and combinations of component and assembly testing. The optimum test levels and the expected cost are determined for each test plan. By including all of the direct cost associated with each test plan and the probabilistic costs due to ground test and flight failures, the test plans which minimize project cost are determined. The lowest cost approach eliminates component testing and maintains flight vibration reliability by performing subassembly tests at a relatively high acoustic level.

Stahle, C. V.↗