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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Resilient water infrastructure partnerships in institutionally complex systems face challenging supply and financial risk tradeoffs

Abstract As regions around the world invest billions in new infrastructure to overcome increasing water scarcity, better guidance is needed to facilitate cooperative planning and investment in institutionally complex and interconnected water supply systems. This work combines detailed water resource system ensemble modeling with multiobjective intelligent search to explore infrastructure investment partnership design in the context of ongoing canal rehabilitation and groundwater banking in California. Here we demonstrate that severe tradeoffs can emerge between conflicting goals related to water supply deliveries, partnership size, and the underlying financial risks associated with cooperative infrastructure investments. We show how hydroclimatic variability and institutional complexity can create significant uncertainty in realized water supply benefits and heterogeneity in partners’ financial risks that threaten infrastructure investment partnership viability. We demonstrate how multiobjective intelligent search can design partnerships with substantially higher water supply benefits and a fraction of the financial risk compared to status quo planning processes. This work has important implications globally for efforts to use cooperative infrastructure investments to enhance the climate resilience and financial stability of water supply systems.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Towards a Robust Adaptive Digital Twin for Fusion Applications

The development of a digital twin system for fusion applications is essential for enhancing the prediction, analysis, and optimization of complex plasma processes. Machine learning (ML), particularly deep learning has demonstrated strong capabilities in modeling such highly nonlinear and intricate systems. However, two critical challenges limit the deployment of deep learning-based digital twins: Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) and data drift. UQ is vital for ensuring trustworthy predictions, especially in decision-support scenarios. Additionally, data-driven models are often sensitive to changes in the underlying data distribution, such as shot-to-shot variations in fusion experiments, which can lead to performance degradation over time. To address these challenges, we are developing an uncertainty-aware, adaptive digital twin framework. Our approach incorporates deep learning models enhanced with Gaussian Process approximations for predictive uncertainty estimation, coupled with an online learning mechanism that enables continuous model adaptation to new experimental data. This adaptive capability allows the data driven models to respond effectively to evolving plasma behaviors and equipment conditions. Specifically, to mitigate the effects of shot-to-shot drift, our system updates itself incrementally as new data becomes available, improving both robustness and fidelity. Our vision is to evolve this data driven model into a self-sustaining digital twin system that leverages UQ based feedback to continuously refine itself and potentially support real-time decision making. This presentation will cover a brief background on uncertainty quantification for ML, our ongoing effort on development of UQ capabilities for ML, our data science pipeline from data collection to model development and analysis and online learning framework for modeling coil deflection at DIII-D. I will also briefly touch upon opportunities and challenges in development of digital twin framework.

Sammuli, Brian [General Atomics]↗
DOE OSTI2022

Arctic Shrub Expansion, Plant Functional Trait Variation, and Effects on Belowground Carbon Cycling (Final Technical Report)

Terrestrial ecosystems are undergoing dramatic changes in response to climate warming, and these changes are expected to feedback to the atmosphere, potentially altering the trajectory of future climate change. Feedbacks from Arctic ecosystems are a major concern because the Arctic is projected to warm significantly in the 21 st century and because >50% of global belowground organic carbon is stored in permafrost and overlying soils. Warming-driven release of this carbon could drastically increase atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and accelerate climate warming. Plant communities are also responding to warming, as evidenced by the widely documented increase in woody-shrub growth and “greening” across much of the Arctic tundra biome. This vegetation shift may offset or amplify warming by altering carbon cycling. The direction and magnitude of shrub effects remain highly uncertain, however, due to limited understanding of the consequences of shrub expansion for belowground carbon cycling and simplification of these relationships in models. The major shrubs expanding in the Arctic (Betula, Salix, and Alnus) vary widely with respect to aboveground and belowground traits (e.g., tissue production and chemistry, rooting depth, microbial symbionts), and may also exhibit substantial intraspecific variation in these traits in response to environmental conditions. Such variation is likely to have profound implications for soil carbon cycling. The overarching goal of this project was to improve process-based understanding of the influence of shrub expansion on carbon cycling to enable improved representation of carbon dynamics in ecosystem and Earth system models. We investigated how plant functional traits vary among shrub genera, respond to environmental conditions, and affect belowground carbon and nutrient cycling by quantifying relationships among functional traits and biogeochemical cycling along edaphic gradients nested within a climate gradient in the Alaskan tundra. We found consistent differences in leaf and root traits among shrub genera and between shrubs and a widespread sedge species, indicating diverse nutrient acquisition strategies and belowground impacts among different arctic shrubs. We also found striking differences in trait values among individuals within the same species or genera within sites. Soil parameters were more important than climate parameters for predicting size and leaf trait variation, and root trait responses were less dependent on climate overall. For all but one root trait, including parameters representing aboveground traits improved the predictive ability of models. These results demonstrate that tundra shrub traits vary considerably at local scales and soil factors drive this variation, especially belowground. Furthermore, leveraging information about aboveground traits and soil conditions can improve predictions of how belowground traits will respond to climate change. Despite these differences, soil carbon and nitrogen pools in the active layer did not vary among plots dominated by different shrub or sedge genera. Instead, pool sizes generally decreased from warmer to colder sites, consistent with a productivity gradient. Patterns of isotopic N composition indicate that shrubs tighten nitrogen cycling via nitrogen resorption or immobilization of shrub litter. Overall, these results suggest that further identifying the specific shrub genera in the tundra landscape will ultimately provide better predictions of belowground dynamics across the changing arctic. We also performed simulation experiments with the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) incorporated in the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) framework, treats model parameters as probability distributions, estimates parameters based on a synthesis of available field data, and then quantifies both model sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter or suite of parameters. We performed simulations across different types of tundra, including shrub tundra. One key finding was that both model sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter could vary within the same type of tundra, but in a different geographical location, such as over the climate gradient of shrub tundra described above. We organized a special session at the annual meeting of the Ecological Society of America in August 2019 to disseminate our results, refine recommendations for model improvement, and initiate collaborations to implement these recommendations in existing models of tundra carbon dynamics at ecosystem to Earth system scales. Our results support DOE near-term priorities by providing mechanistic insights into the role of vegetation change in the terrestrial carbon cycle in a region that is inadequately represented in Earth system models. Current models reduce the complexity of Arctic vegetation to a small number of plant functional types (PFTs). This approach implicitly assumes that each PFT represents the average ecological function of its constituent species, thus ignoring the effects of trait variation on biogeochemical cycling and potentially leading to large uncertainty in the sign and magnitude of ecosystem feedbacks to climate. By quantifying variation of plant functional traits across broad gradients of climatic and edaphic conditions and elucidating the linkages of such variation with carbon and nutrient cycling, our results illustrate the need and create a foundation for further developing trait-based modeling approaches that allow the traits of PFTs to vary as a function of environmental conditions. These approaches should improve the capacity of simulation models to offer insights into ecosystem carbon dynamics associated with novel plant communities in a rapidly changing Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification of a physics-informed model based on sparse identification of a Thermal Energy Distribution System

Integrated energy systems (IES)s are crucial for enhancing the economy and efficiency of power generation sources (e.g., nuclear energy) necessary to unleash American energy dominance. These systems can be integrated with thermal energy storage (TES) and intermittent renewable energies to optimize overall energy use, peak-load regulation, and demand-side responses. However, the stabilization of energy generation, transport, and utilization introduces operational complexities that exceed the challenges of managing each sub-component individually. Currently, though IESs rely on human operators for efficiency and stability, reducing human error risk and enhancing performance through automation is highly desirable. Recent advances at Idaho National Laboratory have demonstrated successful control of the Thermal Energy Distributed System (TEDS). However, the automatic control system depends on a deterministic Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics with Control (SINDyC) model, which are trained based on simulation data from physics-based simulations. Because of uncertainties in physics-based simulation, SINDyC model results in large discrepancies against experimental data and cannot be reliably used in automatic control. In this paper, we present an innovative approach to address these discrepancies by quantifying uncertainties and developing a more robust model. We first generated trajectories by using first-principles physics codes to encapsulate the experiment. Next, we trained thousands of models by randomly sampling these trajectories. We then collapsed all those models into one probabilistic SINDyC by fitting a multivariate Gaussian distribution onto the resulting coefficient’s distribution. Despite its simplicity, our approach successfully produced 95% confidence intervals that captured the experimental trajectories. It even did so with a higher probability and better U-pooling score across six of the seven relevant quantities of interest (QoIs), as compared to other classical approaches. In conclusion, ongoing research is focusing on generating new experimental trajectories to validate this approach, and on employing Bayesian calibration to refine parametric uncertainties and guide future model development efforts.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrating Commercial Ready Autonomous Robotic Platforms to Enhance Worker Safety and Efficiency - 20053

This paper will explore the challenges and triumphs of implementing advanced robotic systems and the supporting technology for the waste management industry. Deployment-ready solutions for autonomous robotic platforms are new to the radioactive waste management industry and have been slow to implement across the complex. Specifically, it will explore Hanford Tank Operations Contractor's implementation of ground-based autonomous robotic platforms to enhance workforce safety and efficiency. The first objective of the project is to demonstrate safe operation of autonomous instrumented robots, followed by a scaling up of capabilities for the platform to meet any additional requests of internal stakeholders. Autonomous robotics platforms offer a fantastic range of capabilities that will aid in decreasing long-term liability of radioactive waste management industry by enhancing clean-up efforts and worker safety. Over the past five years, deployment-ready solutions for autonomous robotic platforms have come a long way. Autonomous robotic platforms are increasingly available to purchase from many vendors, often for prices under $100,000. Additionally, the vendors who produce these products are efficient in accommodating customized solutions to unique challenges, such as those often found in the radioactive waste management industry. However, the newness of this technology to the radioactive waste management industry and has resulted in a slow implementation across the complex. This paper will explore the challenges and triumphs of implementing advanced robotic systems and supporting technology for the waste management industry. Specifically, it will explore Hanford Tank Operations Contractor's implementation of ground based autonomous robotic platforms to enhance workforce safety and efficiency. While the company has utilized robots in many parts of the tank farms mission, this was first attempted in the deployment of an autonomous platform that required no operator with only minor maintenance and created challenges not yet encountered. These challenges included stakeholder buy-in, operational safety, procurement uncertainties, adaption of 'off the shelf products, overcoming the 'Fukushima complexity' perception, security concerns, and the initial criteria down select. Hanford Tank Operations Contractor's management identified the need for a workforce protecting low cost robotics solution in the fall of 2017. The project scope generated was part of the response to the Tank Vapor Assessment Team recommendation to enhance the safety of the workforce by utilizing new technology. Since the projects inception, it has been incorporated into the Tank Stewardship Plan. This project was unique to Hanford Tank Operations Contractor, as the company does not frequently incorporate advanced technology for field deployment quickly. The project was also progressive to the Hanford Tank Operations Contractor as it functions as a partnership project with a local university. The first objective of the project is to demonstrate safe operations of autonomous instrumented robotics, monitoring and collecting data, and the wireless transmission of data to a central computing system. Following the completion of this first objective, the project will scale up capabilities of the platform to meet the requests of additional internal stakeholders throughout the tank farms - including completion of specific in-field tasks. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainty quantification for deep learning in particle accelerator applications

With the advent of increased computational resources and improved algorithms, machine learning-based models are being increasingly applied to complex problems in particle accelerators. However, such data-driven models may provide overly confident predictions with unknown errors and uncertainties. For reliable deployment of machine learning models in high-regret and safety-critical systems such as particle accelerators, estimates of prediction uncertainty are needed along with accurate point predictions. In this investigation, we evaluate Bayesian neural networks (BNN) as an approach that can provide accurate predictions along with reliably quantified uncertainties for particle accelerator problems, and compare their performance with bootstrapped ensembles of neural networks. We select three accelerator setups for this evaluation: a storage ring, a photoinjector, and a linac. The problems span different data volumes and dimensionalities (e.g., scalar predictions as well as image outputs). It is found that BNN provide accurate predictions of the mean along with reliable estimates of predictive uncertainty across the test cases. In this vein, BNN may offer an attractive alternative to deterministic deep learning tools to generate accurate predictions with quantified uncertainties in particle accelerator applications.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
NASA NTRS1991

Experiments on neural network architectures for fuzzy logic

The use of fuzzy logic to model and manage uncertainty in a rule-based system places high computational demands on an inference engine. In an earlier paper, the authors introduced a trainable neural network structure for fuzzy logic. These networks can learn and extrapolate complex relationships between possibility distributions for the antecedents and consequents in the rules. Here, the power of these networks is further explored. The insensitivity of the output to noisy input distributions (which are likely if the clauses are generated from real data) is demonstrated as well as the ability of the networks to internalize multiple conjunctive clause and disjunctive clause rules. Since different rules with the same variables can be encoded in a single network, this approach to fuzzy logic inference provides a natural mechanism for rule conflict resolution.

Keller, James M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Dynamic Control of Plans with Temporal Uncertainty

Certain planning systems that deal with quantitative time constraints have used an underlying Simple Temporal Problem solver to ensure temporal consistency of plans. However, many applications involve processes of uncertain duration whose timing cannot be controlled by the execution agent. These cases require more complex notions of temporal feasibility. In previous work, various "controllability" properties such as Weak, Strong, and Dynamic Controllability have been defined. The most interesting and useful Controllability property, the Dynamic one, has ironically proved to be the most difficult to analyze. In this paper, we resolve the complexity issue for Dynamic Controllability. Unexpectedly, the problem turns out to be tractable. We also show how to efficiently execute networks whose status has been verified.

Morris, Paul↗
DOE OSTI2022

Landfill Emissions of Methane Inferred from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle and Mobile Ground Measurements

Municipal solid waste landfills are significant sources of atmospheric methane, the second most important greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Large emissions of methane from landfills contribute not only to global climate change, but also to local ozone formation due to the enhancement of radical chain lengths in atmospheric reactions of volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides. Several advanced techniques were deployed to measure methane emissions from two landfills in the Southeast Michigan ozone nonattainment area during the Michigan–Ontario Ozone Source Experiment (MOOSE). These techniques included mobile infrared cavity ringdown spectrometry, drone-mounted meteorological sensors and tunable diode laser spectrometry, estimation of total landfill emissions of methane based on flux plane measurements, and Gaussian plume inverse modeling of distributed methane emissions in the presence of complex landfill terrain. The total methane emissions measured at the two landfills were of the order of 500 kg/h, with an uncertainty of around 50%. The results indicate that both landfill active faces and leaking gas collection systems are important sources of methane emissions.

Olaguer, Eduardo P.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Maximum Entropy/Optimal Projection (MEOP) control design synthesis: Optimal quantification of the major design tradeoffs

The underlying philosophy and motivation of the optimal projection/maximum entropy (OP/ME) stochastic modeling and reduced control design methodology for high order systems with parameter uncertainties are discussed. The OP/ME design equations for reduced-order dynamic compensation including the effect of parameter uncertainties are reviewed. The application of the methodology to several Large Space Structures (LSS) problems of representative complexity is illustrated.

Hyland, D. C.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Treatment of uncertainty in artificial intelligence

The present assessment of the development status of research efforts concerned with AI reasoning under conditions of uncertainty emphasizes the importance of appropriateness in the approach selected for both the epistemic and the computational levels. At the former level, attention is given to the form of uncertainty-representation and the fidelity of its reflection of actual problems' uncertainties; at the latter level, such issues as the availability of the requisite information and the complexity of the reasoning process must be considered. The tradeoff between these levels must always be the focus of AI system-developers' attention.

Berenji, Hamid R.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Wind farm flow control: prospects and challenges

Abstract. Wind farm control has been a topic of research for more than two decades. It has been identified as a core component of grand challenges in wind energy science to support accelerated wind energy deployment and to transition to a clean and sustainable energy system for the 21st century. The prospect of collective control of wind turbines in an array, to increase energy extraction, reduce structural loads, improve the balance of systems, reduce operation and maintenance costs, etc. has inspired many researchers over the years to propose innovative ideas and solutions. However, practical demonstration and commercialization of some of the more advanced concepts has been limited by a wide range of challenges, which include the complex physics of turbulent flows in wind farms and the atmosphere, uncertainties related to predicting structural load and failure statistics, and the highly multi-disciplinary nature of the overall design optimization problem, among others. In the current work, we aim at providing a comprehensive overview of the state of the art and outstanding challenges, thus identifying the key research areas that could further enable commercial uptake and success of wind farm control solutions. To this end, we have structured the discussion on challenges and opportunities into four main areas: (1) insight in control flow physics, (2) algorithms and AI, (3) validation and industry implementation, and (4) integrating control with system design (co-design).

Meyers, Johan (ORCID:0000000228284397)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for Bayesian inference in neural networks and neural operators

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful and accurate method to sample from the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference. However, HMC techniques are computationally demanding for Bayesian neural networks due to the high dimensionality of the network’s parameter space and the non-convexity of their posterior distributions. Therefore, various approximation techniques, such as variational inference (VI) or stochastic gradient MCMC, are often employed to infer the posterior distribution of the network parameters. Such approximations introduce inaccuracies in the inferred distributions, resulting in unreliable uncertainty estimates. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach that combines inexpensive VI and accurate HMC methods to efficiently and accurately quantify uncertainties in neural networks and neural operators. The proposed approach leverages an initial VI training on the full network. We examine the influence of individual parameters on the prediction uncertainty, which shows that a large proportion of the parameters do not contribute substantially to uncertainty in the network predictions. This information is then used to significantly reduce the dimension of the parameter space, and HMC is performed only for the subset of network parameters that strongly influence prediction uncertainties. This yields a framework for accelerating the full batch HMC for posterior inference in neural networks. We demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed framework on deep neural networks and operator networks, showing that inference can be performed for large networks with tens to hundreds of thousands of parameters. Finally, we show that this method can effectively learn surrogates for complex physical systems by modeling the operator that maps from upstream conditions to wall-pressure data on a cone in hypersonic flow.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty Quantification of Machine Learning Predicted Creep Property of Alumina-Forming Austenitic Alloys

The development of machine learning (ML) approaches in materials science offers the opportunity to exploit existing engineering and developmental alloy datasets, such as Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)’s consistently measured creep-rupture dataset for alumina-forming austenitic (AFA) alloys, to accelerate their further development. As a first step toward achieving ML insights for improved alloy design, the potential sources of uncertainty and their impacts on ML output are examined. It is observed that the selection of algorithms and features as well as data sampling significantly affects the performance of ML models, either positively or negatively. Further, the performance of various ML models in predicting the creep properties of AFA alloys is compared, with further evaluation by assessment of a small set of new developmental AFA alloys that were not part of the training dataset. The present study demonstrates that uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential in materials science for evaluating the performance of ML algorithms with specifically selected feature sets and obtaining a comprehensive understanding of their limitations and the resultant capability of effective prediction in complex materials systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparison of atomized mass and crater volume in laser ablation

The extent and dynamics of laser ablation are typically studied using crater imaging or by invoking the relationship between atomic emission and the mass removed. The former is a static view of a dynamic process and requires the accumulation of multiple shots in one location. The latter is complex and not absolute without calibration of the optical system with a standard of spectral radiance. We measure the mass of the atomized plume by laser atomic-absorption spectroscopy at 2 µs without external mass calibration; mass uncertainty in laser-ablation atomic absorption spectroscopy (LA-AAS) results from uncertainties in line area fitting, tabulated oscillator strengths, and partition functions as well as a <10% underrepresentation of the mass due to treating the plasma as a single thermodynamic equilibrium. The LA-AAS-measured mass pertains to the atoms in the probed charge states and does not include condensed or molecular species. The ablation efficiency at 300 mbar of helium varies significantly between the two focusing conditions used. A comparison of crater-derived masses and LA-AAS masses suggests that more defocused ablation may result in significant redeposition of material in the crater, distorting the conclusions from drilling studies and crater imaging. More focused ablation conditions result in crater-derived masses that exceed those measured with LA-AAS and suggest melt expulsion or phase explosion.

Merten, Jonathan [Arkansas State University, Jones↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring the Potential of Using Carbonyl Sulfide to Track the Urban Biosphere Signal

Abstract Cities are implementing additional urban green as a means to capture CO 2 and become more carbon neutral. However, cities are complex systems where anthropogenic and natural components of the CO 2 budget interact with each other, and the ability to measure the efficacy of such measures is still not properly addressed. There is still a high degree of uncertainty in determining the contribution of the vegetation signal, which furthermore confounds the use of CO 2 mole fraction measurements for inferring anthropogenic emissions of CO 2 . Carbonyl sulfide (OCS) is a tracer of photosynthesis which can aid in constraining the biosphere signal. This study explores the potential of using OCS to track the urban biosphere signal. We used the Sulfur Transport and dEposition Model (STEM) to simulate the OCS concentrations and the Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach ecosystem model to simulate global CO 2 fluxes over the Bay Area of San Francisco during March 2015. Two observation towers provided measurements of OCS and CO 2 : The Sutro tower in San Francisco (upwind from the area of study providing background observations), and a tower located at Sandia National Laboratories in Livermore (downwind of the highly urbanized San Francisco region). Our results show that the STEM model works better under stable marine influence, and that the boundary layer height and entrainment are driving the diurnal changes in OCS and CO 2 at the downwind Sandia site. However, the STEM model needs to better represent the transport and boundary layer variability, and improved estimates of gross primary productivity for characterizing the urban biosphere signal are needed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nonlinear Characterization of a Joint Exhibiting a Reduction in Damping at High Energy

Even with the advent of additive manufacturing, the vast majority of complex structures are comprised of individual components held together with bolted joints. However, bolted joints present a challenge for mechanical design as they are a source of nonlinearity and increase the uncertainty in the overall behavior of the system in a dynamic environment. While many advances have been made in the ability to accurately model and test bolted joints, it is still an open area of research. Modes of vibration that exercise bolted joints typically exhibit nonlinear behavior where, with increased excitation level, the natural frequency decreases (i.e. softens) and the damping increases. However, the system under study for this work has an axial mode which does not follow this trend; it does soften as expected, but, after an initial increase, the apparent damping decreases with excitation amplitude. At the highest excitation level, the frequency of the mode decreases to that of a nearby bending mode and the response is amplified nearly 500% above that at lower levels. It is unclear whether the decrease in damping is due to the coupling of the two modes or if it is a characteristic of the axial mode. Therefore, the objective of this project is to investigate the coupling between the axial and bending modes and the dynamics leading to the decrease in damping.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of ESM Readiness Level for Exascale HPC

Advancement of Earth System Models (ESMs) is becoming increasingly challenging due to a confluence of factors including increasing model complexity – to more fully represent the earth system, increasing spatial resolution - to achieve higher accuracy by resolving fine-scale dynamical to physical, biological, and chemical processes and their interaction, increasing ensemble size - to more accurately represent predictive uncertainty, and increased computing requirements – to enable more accurate and timely weather predictions and climate projections for societal benefit. The belief by many that computing will take care of itself is no longer valid given the disruptive changes in HPC that are driving up the cost of computing, increasing the difficulty of using emerging HPC effectively, and exposing limits in parallelism, portability and scalability of the ESM applications themselves.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗