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DOE OSTI2026

Endogenous Interface Pricing for Consistent Transmission–Distribution Co-Optimization With Discrete Distribution Controls

This paper proposes an endogenous interface pricing model for day-ahead transmission–distribution co-optimization that co-determines the interface locational marginal price (LMP) and the transmission–distribution exchange, ensuring price–dispatch consistency while optimally scheduling discrete distribution controls. The formulation couples a DC optimal power flow (OPF) with a branch-flow AC OPF that schedules distributed energy resources (DERs), tap-changer settings, capacitor banks (CBs), and multi-period energy storage systems (ESSs) under feeder voltage and current limits, and is solved as a mixed-integer second-order cone program (MISOCP). In a T14–D33 system, coordinated device scheduling recovers about 90% of the distribution-to-transmission export achievable in a reference case that ignores distribution network (DN) limits, while satisfying a 1.05 p.u. voltage upper bound. In a T39–D34/D37/D123 system, a sequential decoupled benchmark produces interface LMP distortions up to 12.5% and a 7.28% mismatch in net export energy, whereas the proposed model removes these distortions and the associated settlement mismatches. Second-order cone (SOC) relaxation gaps remain below $10^{-3}$ in all cases.

Noh, Seung-Gil↗

DOE OSTI2026

Capacities of Entanglement Distribution From a Central Source

Distribution of entanglement is an essential task in quantum information processing and the realization of quantum networks. In our work, we theoretically investigate the scenario where a central source prepares an N -partite entangled state and transmits each entangled subsystem to one of N receivers through noisy quantum channels. The receivers are then able to perform local operations assisted by unlimited classical communication to distill target entangled states from the noisy channel output. In this operational context, we define the EPR distribution capacity and the GHZ distribution capacity of a quantum channel as the largest rates at which Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) states and Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger (GHZ) states can be faithfully distributed through the channel, respectively. We establish lower and upper bounds on the EPR distribution capacity by connecting it with the task of assisted entanglement distillation. We also construct an explicit protocol consisting of a combination of a quantum communication code and a classical-post-processing-assisted entanglement generation code, which yields a simple achievable lower bound for generic channels. As applications of these results, we give an exact expression for the EPR distribution capacity over two erasure channels and bounds on the EPR distribution capacity over two generalized amplitude damping channels. We also bound the GHZ distribution capacity, which results in an exact characterization of the GHZ distribution capacity when the most noisy channel is a dephasing channel.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Convergence Analysis of the Alternating Anderson–Picard Method for Nonlinear Fixed-Point Problems

Anderson acceleration (AA) has been widely used to solve nonlinear fixed-point problems due to its rapid convergence. This work focuses on a variant of AA in which multiple Picard iterations are performed between each AA step, referred to as the Alternating Anderson–Picard (AAP) method. Furthermore, despite introducing more “slow” Picard iterations, this method has been shown to be efficient and even more robust in both linear and nonlinear cases. However, there is a lack of theoretical analysis for AAP in the nonlinear case. In this paper, we address this gap by establishing the equivalence between AAP and a multisecant-GMRES method that uses GMRES to solve a multisecant linear system at each iteration. From this perspective, we show that AAP “converges” to the Newton-GMRES method. Specifically, as the residual approaches zero, the multisecant matrix, the approximate Jacobian inverse, the search direction, and the optimization gain of AAP converge to their counterparts in the Newton-GMRES method. These connections provide insights for analyzing the asymptotic convergence properties of AAP. Consequently, we show that AAP is locally 𝑞-linear convergent and provide an upper bound for the convergence factor of AAP. To validate the theoretical results, numerical examples are provided.

Anderson acceleration↗

DOE OSTI2025

Novel scalings of neutron star properties from analyzing dimensionless Tolman–Oppenheimer–Volkoff equations

The Tolman–Oppenheimer–Volkoff (TOV) equations govern the radial evolution of pressure and energy density in static neutron stars (NSs) in hydrodynamical equilibrium. Using the reduced pressure and energy density with respect to the NS central energy density, the original TOV equations can be recast into dimensionless forms. While the traditionally used integral approach for solving the original TOV equations require an input nuclear Equation of State (EOS), the dimensionless TOV equations can be anatomized by using the reduced pressure and energy density as polynomials of the reduced radial coordinate without using any input nuclear EOS. It has been shown in several of our recent works that interesting and novel perspectives about NS core EOS can be extracted directly from NS observables by using the latter approach. Our approach is based on intrinsic and perturbative analyses of the dimensionless (IPAD) TOV equations (IPAD-TOV). In this review article, we first discuss the length and energy density scales of NSs as well as the dimensionless TOV equations for scaled variables and their perturbative solutions near NS cores. We then review several new insights into NS physics gained from solving perturbatively the scaled TOV equations. Whenever appropriate, comparisons with the traditional approach from solving the original TOV equations will be made. In particular, we first show that the nonlinearity of the TOV equations basically excludes a linear EOS for dense matter in NS cores. We then show that perturbative analyses of the scaled TOV equations enable us to reveal novel scalings of the NS mass, radius and the compactness with certain combinations of the NS central pressure and energy density. Thus, observational data on either mass, radius or compactness can be used to constrain directly the core EOS of NS matter independent of the still very uncertain nuclear EOS models. As examples, the EOS of the densest visible matter in our Universe before the most massive neutron stars collapse into black holes (BHs) as well as the central EOS of a canonical or a 2.1 solar mass NS are extracted without using any nuclear EOS model. In addition, we show that causality in NSs sets an upper bound of about 0.374 for the ratio of pressure over energy density and correspondingly a lower limit for trace anomaly in supra-dense matter. We also demonstrate that the strong-field gravity plays a fundamental role in extruding a peak in the density/radius profile of the speed of sound squared (SSS) in massive NS cores independent of the nuclear EOS. Finally, some future perspectives of NS research using the new approach reviewed here by solving perturbatively the dimensionless TOV equations are outlined.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Search for exotic decays of the Higgs boson to a pair of pseudoscalars in the $μμ bb$ and $ττ bb$ final states

A search for exotic decays of the Higgs boson (H) with a mass of 125 GeV to a pair of light pseudoscalars a 1 is performed in final states where one pseudoscalar decays to two quarks and the other to a pair of muons or leptons. A data sample of proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb -1 recorded with the CMS detector is analyzed. No statistically significant excess is observed over the standard model backgrounds. Upper limits are set at 95% confidence level (CL) on the Higgs boson branching fraction to μ μ b b and to τ τ b b via a pair of a 1 s. The limits depend on the pseudoscalar mass m a 1 and are observed to be in the range (0.17–3.3) x 10 -4 and (1.7–7.7) x 10 -2 in the μ μ b b and τ τ b b final states, respectively. In the framework of models with two Higgs doublets and a complex scalar singlet (2HDM+S), the results of the two final states are combined to determine upper limits on the branching fraction ${\mathcal {B}}(\text {H} \rightarrow \text {a}_{1} \text {a}_{1} \rightarrow \ell \ell \text{ b } \text{ b})$ at 95% CL, with ℓ being a muon or a τ lepton. For different types of 2HDM+S, upper bounds on the branching fraction ${\mathcal {B}}(\text {H} \rightarrow \text {a}_{1} \text {a}_{1} )$ are extracted from the combination of the two channels. In most of the Type II 2HDM+S parameter space ${\mathcal {B}}(\text {H} \rightarrow \text {a}_{1} \text {a}_{1} )$, values above 0.23 are excluded at 95% CL for m a 1 values between 15 and 60 GeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Observational constraints on early dark energy

In this paper, we review and update constraints on the Early Dark Energy (EDE) model from cosmological data sets, in particular Planck PR3 and PR4 cosmic microwave background (CMB) data and large-scale structure (LSS) data sets including galaxy clustering and weak lensing data from the Dark Energy Survey, Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam and KiDS+VIKING-450, as well as BOSS/eBOSS galaxy clustering and Lyman-[Formula: see text] forest data. We detail the fit to CMB data, and perform the first analyses of EDE using the CAMSPEC and Hillipop likelihoods for Planck CMB data, rather than Plik, both of which yield a tighter upper bound on the allowed EDE fraction than that found with Plik. We then supplement CMB data with LSS data in a series of new analyses. All these analyses are concordant in their Bayesian preference for [Formula: see text]CDM over EDE, as indicated by marginalized posterior distributions. We perform a series of tests of the impact of priors in these results, and compare with frequentist analyses based on the profile likelihood, finding qualitative agreement with the Bayesian results. All these tests suggest prior volume effects are not a determining factor in analyses of EDE. This work provides both a review of existing constraints and several new analyses.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Translation-Invariant Quantum Algorithms for Ordered Search are Optimal

Ordered search is the task of finding an item in an ordered list using comparison queries. The best exact classical algorithm for this fundamental problem uses [log 2 n] queries for a list of length n. Quantum computers can achieve a constant-factor speedup, but the best possible coefficient of log 2 n for exact quantum algorithms is only known to lie between (ln2)/π ≈ 0.221 and 4/log 2 605 ≈ 0.4333. We consider a special class of translation-invariant algorithms with no workspace, introduced by Farhi, Goldstone, Gutmann, and Sipser, that has been used to find the best known upper bounds. First, we show that any bounded-error, k-query quantum algorithm for ordered search can be implemented by a k-query algorithm in this special class. Second, we use linear programming to show that the best exact 5-query quantum algorithm can search a list of length 7265, giving an ordered search algorithm that asymptotically uses 5 log 7265 n ≈ 0.390 log 2 n quantum queries.

Translation-invariant quantum algorithms↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hydroboost

HydroBoost is the most realistic revenue optimization tool for the hybridization of hydropower and battery energy storage systems to date. The innovative representation of how operators actually schedule hydropower in practice results in more realistic predictions of revenue and operations. Unlike other optimization tools, HydroBoost generates forecast energy prices with uncertainty to use in the optimization. This allows HydroBoost to give users a range of potential revenue with an upper bound using the perfect foresight pricing and a lower bound using a naive persistence forecast model. Additional forecast can be generated and used in the optimization, such as additive models, random forest, and neural networks to give further insight into potential revenue. HydroBoost has been designed to be applicable for both run-of-river and reservoir storage sites. The primary focus is on the day-ahead market and requires year-long data with an hour time-step. All time-series input and constraints are contained in an Excel worksheet for convince. The user will run the forecasting generation first with a Python script to give the optimization model the necessary requirements. Next the optimization is ran using Julia and results are generated and stored into a directory as csv files. HydroBoost includes an additional module to generate figures based on the results of the optimization simulation. The results help analyze the results and users to draw insights into how the hydro and battery systems are operated and the revenue each is producing. Additionally, the difference between the perfect foresight model and models that include forecast can easily be inspected.

Phillips, TylerB. [Idaho National Laboratory (INL)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimal load attachment of a deeply embedded ring anchor in clay

A Deeply Embedded Ring Anchor (DERA) system has been developed as a cost-effective solution for mooring arrays of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) to the seabed. The DERA boasts several key features, including its versatility in various soil types, compact size, compatibility with diverse mooring systems, multi-line potential, and robust performance even under unintentional loading conditions. While prior preliminary studies have provided valuable insights into how the DERA can enhance cost-effectiveness by offering a high load capacity, these studies have predominantly focused on optimizing anchor performance under translational horizontal and vertical loading. However, to design the DERA optimally, we must also consider its ability to handle inclined loading conditions in addition to lateral and axial loadings. Due to its shorter length compared to a conventional caisson, the DERA has less resistance to moments, making it more sensitive to horizontal load capacity and the optimal load attachment depth concerning load angle. For this reason, our study introduces an analytical approach to evaluate the effects of inclined loading on anchor performance, utilizing the previously validated upper bound plastic limit analysis (PLA) method. In investigating the optimal load attachment of the DERA, this paper conducts a parametric study to analyze how factors such as load attachment depth, anchor aspect ratio, and load inclination affect the DERA’s load capacity. Our findings indicate that PLA can serve as a valuable analytical tool for assessing the ultimate load capacity of the DERA, particularly under inclined loading conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Binary Quantum Control Optimization with Uncertain Hamiltonians

Optimizing the controls of quantum systems plays a crucial role in advancing quantum technologies. The time-varying noises in quantum systems and the widespread use of inhomogeneous quantum ensembles raise the need for high-quality quantum controls under uncertainties. In this paper, we consider a stochastic discrete optimization formulation of a discretized binary optimal quantum control problem involving Hamiltonians with predictable uncertainties. We propose a sample-based reformulation that optimizes both risk-neutral and risk-averse measurements of control policies, and solve these with two gradient-based algorithms using sum-up-rounding approaches. Furthermore, we discuss the differentiability of the objective function and prove upper bounds of the gaps between the optimal solutions to binary control problems and their continuous relaxations. We conduct numerical simulations on various sized problem instances based on two applications of quantum pulse optimization; we evaluate different strategies to mitigate the impact of uncertainties in quantum systems. In conclusion, we demonstrate that the controls of our stochastic optimization model achieve significantly higher quality and robustness compared with the controls of a deterministic model.

conditional value-at-risk (CVaR)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dynamic Transmission Line Switching Amid Wildfire-Prone Weather Under Decision-Dependent Uncertainty

During dry and windy seasons, environmental conditions significantly increase the risk of wildfires, exposing power grids to disruptions caused by transmission line failures. Wildfire propagation exacerbates grid vulnerability, potentially leading to prolonged power outages. To address this challenge, we propose a multistage optimization model that dynamically adjusts transmission grid topology in response to wildfire propagation, aiming to develop an optimal response policy. By accounting for decision-dependent uncertainty, where line survival probabilities depend on usage, we employ distributionally robust optimization to model uncertainty in line survival distributions. We adapt the stochastic nested decomposition algorithm and derive a deterministic upper bound for its finite convergence. To enhance computational efficiency, we exploit the Lagrangian dual problem structure for a faster generation of Lagrangian cuts. Using realistic data from the California transmission grid, we demonstrate the superior performance of dynamic response policies against two-stage alternatives through a comprehensive case study. In addition, after solving the multistage formulation, we construct easy-to-implement policies that significantly reduce computational burden while maintaining good performance in real-time deployment. History: Accepted by Russell Bent, Area Editor for Network Optimization: Algorithms and Applications. Funding: This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Electricity [Grant DE-AC02-05CH11231]. The work of R. Jiang was supported in part by the U.S. National Science Foundation, Division of Electrical, Communications and Cyber Systems [Grant ECCS-1845980] and the U.S. Air Force Office of Scientific Research [Grant FA9550-23-1-0323]. Supplemental Material: The software that supports the findings of this study is available within the paper and its Supplemental Information ( https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/suppl/10.1287/ijoc.2025.1210 ) as well as from the IJOC GitHub software repository ( https://github.com/INFORMSJoC/2025.1210 ). The complete IJOC Software and Data Repository is available at https://informsjoc.github.io/ .

Estrada-Garcia, Juan-Alberto↗

DOE OSTI2024

Low loss fiber-coupled volumetric interconnects fabricated via direct laser writing

Photonic integrated circuits (PICs) are vital for high-speed data transmission. However, optical routing is limited in PICs composed of only one or a few stacked planes. Further, coupling losses must be low in deployed systems. Previously, we developed the subsurface controllable refractive index via beam exposure (SCRIBE) technique to write accurate 3D gradient refractive index (GRIN) profiles within a mesoporous silica scaffold. Here, we apply SCRIBE to fabricate low loss, broadband, polarization insensitive, fiber-coupled, single-mode volumetric interconnects that include waveguides traversing arbitrary 3D paths. By seamlessly integrating mode-matching subsurface lenses and GRIN waveguide tapers, calibrating for positional writing errors, implementing multipass exposure, automating alignment, and switching to antireflection coated fibers, we reduced the insertion loss for a fiber-PIC-fiber interconnect from 50 to 2.14 dB, or 1.47 dB, excluding the fiber array’s loss. Further, we establish an upper bound of 0.45 dB loss per coupler. We report quality factors of 27,000 and 77,000 and bending losses of 6 and 3 dB/cm for 15 and 30 µm radii microrings, respectively. We also demonstrate Bézier escalators, polarization-rotating and polarization-splitting interconnects, and a seven-channel 25 µm pitch volumetric interconnect. The SCRIBE platform presents a clear path toward realizing 3D PICs with unique functionality.

Optics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Membrane Development for CO2 Capture from Steel Manufacturing

The U.S. government is targeting a net-zero carbon-emission economy by 2050, offering an exciting opportunity for membrane-based CO2 capture from various industrial point sources. Given that industrial flue gas has low CO2 partial pressures and high volumetric flow rates, high-permeance membranes are needed to make membrane technology economically viable for large-scale deployment. Thin film composite (TFC) membranes are necessary for this implementation because they can provide high permeance by forming a thin selective layer on top of a porous support. This presentation will report the rational design and fabrication of NETL’s highly permeable non-aging TFCs achieved by: synthesizing a high-performance rubbery selective material; developing a high-porosity membrane support; optimizing coating methods to assemble the two materials into scalable membranes; and scaling up membrane supports and TFCs via a roll-to-roll process. The novel rubbery selective material shows mixed-gas CO2 permeability of 930 Barrer and CO2/N2 selectivity of 44, exceeding the 2008 Robeson upper bound. The resulting TFCs yield remarkably high CO2 permeance of 4,500 GPU and CO2/N2 selectivity of 34 at 23ºC. Moreover, the TFCs exhibit not only excellent performance stability (or non-aging behavior) for 1,000 hours in the lab, but also maintain their separation properties in a 700-hour field test at the U.S. DOE’s National Carbon Capture Center using real humid flue gas.

Tran, Thien↗

DOE OSTI2026

Extending Symmetry-Preserving Attention Networks (SPANet) for Jet Assignment in Fully Hadronic $t\bar{t}$ Events

Fully hadronic $t\bar{t}$ reconstruction requires assigning reconstructed jets to the two top-quark decay branches, $t\bar{t}\to(Wb)(Wb)\to(qqb)(qqb)$. This is a combinatorially large, symmetry-rich, and frequently underconstrained set-assignment problem due to detector effects and partial reconstructability. SPANet provides a strong symmetry-preserving baseline for this task, but its standard inference eagerly commits to a single hypothesis and does not explicitly treat branch-level reconstructability decisions. We present a two-stage extension of the SPANet pipeline for fully hadronic $t\bar{t}$ events: (i) SPANet is modified into a proposal model that generates a shortlist of candidate jet assignments; (ii) a custom dual-head set transformer is trained to re-rank these candidates and identify reconstructible branches. Our extension gives modest improvements in candidate-selection efficiency, with SPANet achieving $69.9\%$ and our extension achieving $71.1\%$. Finally, an oracle study of the generated shortlist shows a substantial upper bound of $88.5\%$ on the evaluated fully reconstructable subset, suggesting that the shortlist contains significant residual information that is not fully exploited.

Lisondodi Tada, Mateo [Puerto Rico U., Mayaguez] (↗

DOE OSTI2024

Infinite quantum signal processing

Quantum signal processing (QSP) represents a real scalar polynomial of degree d using a product of unitary matrices of size 2 × 2 , parameterized by ( d + 1 ) real numbers called the phase factors. This innovative representation of polynomials has a wide range of applications in quantum computation. When the polynomial of interest is obtained by truncating an infinite polynomial series, a natural question is whether the phase factors have a well defined limit as the degree d → ∞ . While the phase factors are generally not unique, we find that there exists a consistent choice of parameterization so that the limit is well defined in the ℓ 1 space. This generalization of QSP, called the infinite quantum signal processing, can be used to represent a large class of non-polynomial functions. Our analysis reveals a surprising connection between the regularity of the target function and the decay properties of the phase factors. Our analysis also inspires a very simple and efficient algorithm to approximately compute the phase factors in the ℓ 1 space. The algorithm uses only double precision arithmetic operations, and provably converges when the ℓ 1 norm of the Chebyshev coefficients of the target function is upper bounded by a constant that is independent of d . This is also the first numerically stable algorithm for finding phase factors with provable performance guarantees in the limit d → ∞ .

Dong, Yulong [Department of Mathematics, Universit↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sequency Hierarchy Truncation (SeqHT) for Adiabatic State Preparation and Time Evolution in Quantum Simulations

We introduce the Sequency Hierarchy Truncation (SeqHT) scheme for reducing the resources required for state preparation and time evolution in quantum simulations, based upon a truncation in sequency. For the λϕ 4 interaction in scalar field theory, or any interaction with a polynomial expansion, upper bounds on the contributions of operators of a given sequency are derived. For the systems we have examined, observables computed in sequency-truncated wavefunctions, including quantum correlations as measured by magic, are found to step-wise converge to their exact values with increasing cutoff sequency. The utility of SeqHT is demonstrated in the adiabatic state preparation of the λϕ 4 anharmonic oscillator ground state using IBM's quantum computer ibm_sherbrooke. Using SeqHT, the depth of the required quantum circuits is reduced by ∼ 30 % , leading to significantly improved determinations of observables in the quantum simulations. More generally, SeqHT is expected to lead to a reduction in required resources for quantum simulations of systems with a hierarchy of length scales.

Li, Zhiyao [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (Unit↗

DOE OSTI2026

Modeling glass degradation and release of radionuclides from vitrified waste for performance assessment simulations

The release of radionuclides initially encapsulated in a slowly degrading solid waste form and contained in an eventually corroding canister defines the source term for numerical simulations for the assessment of a geologic repository for high-level radioactive waste. While the details of waste degradation, canister corrosion, and dissolution and mobilization of the radionuclides in pore water include complex chemical reaction and transport processes that are coupled to the thermal, hydrological, microbiological, and mechanical conditions in the repository, the source-term model suitable for use in a numerical performance assessment model should be a defensible abstraction of these mechanisms. We developed a radiological source-term model and implemented it into a non-isothermal flow and transport simulator. While the proposed source-term model is applicable to various waste forms, canister systems, and disposal concepts, we specifically considered radionuclide releases from vitrified high-level waste placed in a cylindrical canister disposed in a deep vertical borehole repository. In this model, waste degradation is a function of temperature, and it can be adjusted to evaluate the influence of and propagate uncertainties in pH, passivation reactions, and chemical conditions as well as geometrical factors. The time-dependent, congruent release of safety-relevant radionuclides present in the decaying inventory is then calculated. Finally, the radionuclides are mobilized by diffusive and advective transport according to the thermo-hydraulic conditions prevailing in the near field of the repository, from where they migrate through the geosphere to the accessible environment. We examine the influence of the source-term model’s parameters on performance assessment calculations through sensitivity and uncertainty propagation analyses, identifying influential factors and confirming the upper bound of their impact. These considerations align with the overarching goal of repository design, which is to demonstrate that engineered and natural barriers can collectively delay radionuclide migration for timescales far exceeding human planning, thereby providing multiple, redundant barriers against environmental contamination.

iTOUGH2↗

DOE OSTI2026

Topography and functional traits shape the distribution of key shrub plant functional types in low-Arctic tundra

The expansion of shrubs in the Arctic tundra fundamentally modifies land-atmosphere interactions. However, it remains unclear how shrub distribution and expansion differ across key species due to challenges with discriminating tundra plant species at regional scales. Here, we combined multi-scale, multi-platform remote sensing and in situ trait measurements to elucidate the distribution patterns and primary controls of two representative deciduous-tall-shrub (DTS) genera, Alnus and Salix, in low-Arctic tundra. We show that topographic features were a key control on DTSs, creating heterogeneous, but predictable distributions of Alnus and Salix fractional cover (fCover). Alnus was more tolerant of elevation and slope and was found on hilly uplands (slope >10°) within a specific elevational band (200–400 m above sea level [MSL]). In contrast, Salix occurred at lower elevations (50–300 m MSL) on gentler slopes (3-10°) and required adequate soil moisture associated with its profligate water use. We also show that niche differentiation between Alnus and Salix changed with patch size, where larger patches were more specialized in resource requirements than individual plants of Alnus and Salix. To understand what constrains the growth of DTSs at locations with low fCover, we developed environmental limiting factor models, which showed that topography limits the upper bound of Alnus and Salix fCover in 69.2% and 48.7% of the landscape, respectively. These findings highlight a critical need to better understand and represent topography-controlled processes and functional traits in regulating shrub distribution, as well as a need for more detailed species classification to predict shrubification in the Arctic.

alder↗