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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of neutrino oscillations using neutrino and antineutrino beams in the NOvA experiment

NOvA is a long-baseline accelerator neutrino oscillation experiment using the NuMIneutrino beam from Fermilab. Its main physics goals are to probe the 3-flavour oscillationparameters: neutrino mass hierarchy, CP-violating phase dcp and octant of .23 mixingangle by observing electron neutrino appearance and muon neutrino disappearance. Twofunctionally identical detectors are placed off-axis from the centre of the NuMI beam.The near detector at Fermilab is 100 m underground, and the far detector is locatedon the surface at Ash River, 810 km away from the beam source. The initial neutrinobeam spectra are measured using the near detector data and the oscillation parametersare extracted by fitting the observed data to the predicted neutrino spectrum in the fardetector.This thesis is centered around how to improve the sensitivity of |.m232| and .23 measurementsin the muon neutrino disappearance analysis. NOvA will take data for about12 years. The operation of the NOvA experiment for each year costs tens of millions ofdollars, thus it is valuable to maximise the sensitivity of the analysis. Three samples ofmuon neutrino events are studied in this thesis to improve the analysis sensitivities. First,higher energy muon neutrinos are investigated by extending the energy range in NOvA’scurrent standard analysis. Second, for the sample of events used in NOvA’s existing analysis,a new energy estimator which has been developed to improve the neutrino energy resolution is considered. Furthermore, in addition to binning the events as function ofenergy and hadronic energy fraction, three particle identifiers are introduced to separateneutrino events by signal purity to reduce the effects from backgrounds. Third, an additionallower purity sample of muon neutrino charged current (CC) events that look similarto neutral current events and have not been included in NOvA’s existing analyses havebeen studied.This thesis reanalyses NOvA’s data used in the 2020 analysis, corresponding to anexposure of 13.60×1020 protons on target (POT) in the neutrino beam mode recordedfrom February 6, 2014 to March 20, 2020, and 12.50×1020 protons on target in theantineutrino beam mode recorded between June 29, 2016 to February 26, 2019. Thisthesis has implemented a fit to Asimov fake data, generated where sin2 .23 = 0.59 and.m232 = 2.5 × 10-3 eV2. These sensitivity studies show that the uncertainty range of|.m232| at 1 s in the new analysis is reduced by 5.5% and the significance of maximaldisappearance rejection improves by 7.7%, compared to the standard analysis. This isequivalent to adding 11-16% more data. The best fit values of the oscillation parametersfrom fitting to the far detector (FD) data with the new analysis are found to besin2 .23 = 0.568+0.025-0.043 (sin2 .23 = 0.454+0.046-0.026) and .m232 = 2.399+0.055-0.070 × 10-3 eV2 (.m232= -2.427+0.055-0.067 × 10-3 eV2) for the normal (inverted) hierarchy. The difference in thebest fit for sin2 .23 (.m232) between the new analysis and NOvA’s 2020 analysis is around2% (1.4%). The uncertainty range at 1 s for .m232 decrease by 8% (4%) for the normalhierarchy (inverted hierarchy) compared to the standard analysis. The uncertainty rangefor sin2 .23 is close to the standard analysis. This thesis also implements the fit from combiningelectron neutrino appearance and muon neutrino disappearance. The combinedanalysis shows that the best fit values are very close to the standard analysis. However,the uncertainty range of .m232 at 1 s is reduced by 3.7% using the new analysis. The maximaldisappearance significance is not improved in the new analysis, but the new analysisslightly improves the rejection of the disfavoured octant.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integration of Air Classification and Hydrothermal Carbonization to Enhance Energy Recovery of Corn Stover

Air classification (AC) is a cost-effective technology that separates the energy-dense light ash fraction (LAF) from the inorganic-rich high ash fraction (HAF) of corn stover. HAF could be upgraded into energy-dense solid fuel by hydrothermal carbonization (HTC). However, HTC is a high-temperature, high-pressure process, which requires additional energy to operate. In this study, three different scenarios (i.e., AC only, HTC only, and integrated AC–HTC) were investigated for the energy recovery of corn stover. AC was performed on corn stover at an 8 Hz fan speed, which yielded 84.4 wt. % LAF, 12.8 wt. % HAF, and 2.8 wt. % below screen particles. About 27 wt. % ash was reduced from LAF by the AC process. Furthermore, HTC was performed on raw corn stover and the HAF of corn stover at 200, 230, and 260 °C for 30 min. To evaluate energy recovery, solid products were characterized in terms of mass yield, ash yield, ultimate analysis, proximate analyses, and higher heating value (HHV). The results showed that the energy density was increased with the increase in HTC temperature, meanwhile the mass yield and ash yield were decreased with the increase in HTC temperature. Proximate analysis showed that fixed carbon increased 18 wt. % for original char and 27 wt. % for HAF char at 260 °C, compared to their respective feedstocks. Finally, the hydrochar resulting from HAF was mixed with LAF and pelletized at 180 bar and 90 °C to densify the energy content. An energy balance of the integrated AC–HTC process was performed, and the results shows that integrated AC with HTC performed at 230 °C resulted in an additional 800 MJ/ton of energy recovery compared to the AC-only scenario.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Experimental Measurements of the Wake of a Sphere at Subcritical Reynolds Numbers

This work experimentally investigated the flow phenomena and vortex structures in the wake of a sphere located in a water loop at Reynolds numbers of Re = 850, 1,250, and 1,700. Velocity fields in the wake region were obtained by applying the time-resolved stereoscopic particle image velocimetry (TR-SPIV) technique. From the acquired TR-SPIV velocity vector fields, the statistical values of mean and fluctuating velocities were computed. Spectral analysis, two-point velocity–velocity cross-correlation, proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) and vortex identification analyses were also performed. The velocity fields show a recirculation region that decreases in length with an increase of Reynolds numbers. The power spectra from the spectral analysis had peaks corresponding to a Strouhal number of St = 0.2, which is a value commonly found in the literature studies of flow over a sphere. The two-point cross-correlation analysis revealed elliptical structures in the wake, with estimated integral length scales ranging between 12% and 63% of the sphere diameter. The POD analysis revealed the statistically dominant flow structures that captured the most flow kinetic energy. It is seen that the flow kinetic energy captured in the smaller scale flow structures increased as Reynolds number increased. The POD modes contained smaller structure as the Reynolds number increased and as mode order increased. In addition, spectral analysis performed on the POD temporal coefficients revealed peaks corresponding to St = 0.2, similar to the spectral analysis on the fluctuating velocity. The ability of POD to produce low-order reconstructions of the flow was also utilized to facilitate vortex identification analysis, which identified average vortex sizes of 0.41D for Re1, 0.33D for Re2, and 0.32D for Re3.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nuclear Integrated Hydrogen Production Analysis Tool

This is an Excel-based time-independent discount cash flow calculator for LWR-HTSE systems. The tool incorporates (1) discounted cash flow and levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) analysis, (2) sensitivity analysis with respect to select financial performance metrics with output ‘tornado’ charts, (3) profitability analysis represented by heat maps using the two most sensitive parameters, (4) electricity versus hydrogen production preference analysis by comparing change in net present value (?NPV) between NPP-HTSE and business-as-usual electricity production for the grid, and (5) competitiveness analysis by comparing the calculated LCOH for NPP-HTSE with that of steam methane reforming, which is the conventional process to produce hydrogen.

Cheng, WenChi [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Id↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of Rayleigh Scattering in Liquid Argon at Vacuum Ultraviolet Wavelengths

Liquid argon based experiments are limited in scintillation light analysis capabilities due to inconsistent measured values of fundamental constants essential for reconstructing scintillation events. This experiment measures the Rayleigh scattering length of vacuum ultraviolet light propagating in liquid argon to support liquid argon experiments by expanding the scope of scintillation signal analysis. Preliminary results are presented for the Rayleigh scattering length in arange of vacuum ultraviolet wavelengths, including the liquid argon scintillation peak wavelength. Currently, further data collection and analysis is required to reduce measurement uncertainty as well as quantify and correct for other effects such as the photon detector temperature dependence. Results will contribute to the development of new photon detector system analysis methods for liquid argon experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Prediction Model of Risk Factors for COVID-19 Developing into Severe Illness Based on 1046 Patients with COVID-19

This study analyzed the risk factors for patients with COVID-19 developing severe illnesses and explored the value of applying the logistic model combined with ROC curve analysis to predict the risk of severe illnesses at COVID-19 patients’ admissions. The clinical data of 1046 COVID-19 patients admitted to a designated hospital in a certain city from July to September 2020 were retrospectively analyzed, the clinical characteristics of the patients were collected, and a multivariate unconditional logistic regression analysis was used to determine the risk factors for severe illnesses in COVID-19 patients during hospitalization. Based on the analysis results, a prediction model for severe conditions and the ROC curve were constructed, and the predictive value of the model was assessed. Logistic regression analysis showed that age (OR = 3.257, 95% CI 10.466–18.584), complications with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR = 7.337, 95% CI 0.227–87.021), cough (OR = 5517, 95% CI 0.258–65.024), and venous thrombosis (OR = 7322, 95% CI 0.278–95.020) were risk factors for COVID-19 patients developing severe conditions during hospitalization. When complications were not taken into consideration, COVID-19 patients’ ages, number of diseases, and underlying diseases were risk factors influencing the development of severe illnesses. The ROC curve analysis results showed that the AUC that predicted the severity of COVID-19 patients at admission was 0.943, the optimal threshold was −3.24, and the specificity was 0.824, while the sensitivity was 0.827. The changes in the condition of severe COVID-19 patients are related to many factors such as age, clinical symptoms, and underlying diseases. This study has a certain value in predicting COVID-19 patients that develop from mild to severe conditions, and this prediction model is a useful tool in the quick prediction of the changes in patients’ conditions and providing early intervention for those with risk factors.

Lian, Zhichuang↗
DOE OSTI2022

Heating, DPA, and He production in the Proton Beam Window Assembly for the Second Target Station

This report details the analysis of the heating rates, dpa values, and He production in the Proton Beam Window (PBW), the assembly around the PBW, and the shielding above it. Neutronics calculations use a detailed Unstructured Mesh (UM) converted from the solid CAD model of the PBW design of June 2022. The rest of the geometry is taken from the CSG master model (as of June 2022). For this analysis, a proton beam profile with a footprint of ≈90 cm 2 has been used. This proton profile was created by a Ring to Second Target magnet array configuration using octupole magnets. Maximum values in the PBW (aluminum) are 5.4 J/cc/pulse heating rate, 1.1 dpa per year, and 660 appm He-production per year. These results within ~ 10% with the previous calculations from June 2020. Average heating and dpa rates have been calculated for each component in the PBW assembly and will be used to evaluate and design the cooling needs and make decisions on removable components for the PBW. It is desirable to optimize and simplify the PBW design by only replacing components that are at the end of their lifetime. Additional analysis for the energy deposition in the PBW is performed for two super-Gaussian beam profiles with a footprint of 60 cm 2 and 30 cm 2 respectively. Also, an estimate of the PBW lifetime is performed for two realistic quadrupole beam profiles.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Looking Beyond Bill Savings to Equity in Renewable Energy Microgrid Deployment

Microgrids powered by renewable energy can provide backup power to critical infrastructure during grid outages. These systems can also play an important role in advancing energy justice by providing economic, environmental, health, and resilience benefits for underserved communities. The value of microgrids is often measured by the economic savings and resilience provided, but there are other energy justice factors that should be considered. This paper describes a methodology for quantifying broader costs and benefits including utility bill savings, value of resilience, social cost of carbon, public health costs, and jobs associated with the construction and operation of microgrids. We evaluate these factors at three case study sites and find that including energy justice values in the cost-benefit analysis of microgrids can change investment decisions. When climate, health, resilience, and job creation are considered, cost-optimal microgrids include more renewable generation, leading to a 52-82% reduction in emissions and diesel fuel use. The net present values of the microgrids grow from negative $626,000-843,000 in the diesel only case to $10-16 million in the hybrid microgrid case and $12-19 million in the renewable microgrid case, indicating potential for greater microgrid deployment if energy justice values are incorporated in decision making. However, we also see large increases in capital expenses, which could limit deployment unless accompanied by innovative financing measures. These findings may be useful to communities as they seek to strengthen resilience to natural disasters while also improving public health, meeting climate goals, and providing economic opportunity for residents.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Lone-Electron-Pair Micelles Strengthen Bond Anharmonicity in MnPb16Sb14S38 Complex Sulfosalt Leading to Ultra-Low Thermal Conductivity

Designing crystalline solids in which intrinsic extremely low lattice thermal conductivity mainly arises from its unique bonding nature rather than structure complexity and/or atomic disorder could promote thermal energy manipulation and utilization for applications ranging from thermoelectric energy conversion to thermal barrier coatings. Here, we report an extremely low lattice thermal conductivity of ~0.34 W m-1 K-1 at 300 K in the new complex sulfosalt MnPb16Sb14S38. We attribute the ultra-low lattice thermal conductivity to a synergistic combination of scattering mechanisms involving (1) strong bond anharmonicity in various structural building units, owing to the presence of stereoactive lone-electron-pair (LEP) micelles, and (2) phonon scattering at the interfaces between building units of increasing size and complexity. Remarkably, low-temperature heat capacity measurement revealed a Cp value of 0.206 J g-1 K-1 at T > 300 K, which is 22% lower than the Dulong-Petit value (0.274 J g-1 K-1). Further analysis of the Cp data and sound velocity (ν = 1834 m/s) measurement yielded Debye temperature values of 161 K and 187 K, respectively. Here, the resulting Grüneisen parameter, γ = 1.65, further supports strong bond anharmonicity as the dominant mechanism responsible for the observed extremely low lattice thermal conductivity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Value of Distributed Wind: A Valuation Framework

While there has been an increase in distributed energy resource (DER) adoption, particularly for solar photovoltaic (PV) DERs, distributed wind deployment is still relatively low. However, distributed wind has significant growth potential for behind-the-meter applications and can provide improved resource diversity and resilience in high-DER grid systems. In order to make optimized decisions about distributed wind deployment, it is important to identify and characterize the value streams of distributed wind in a way that will help policy makers, microgrid developers, utilities, project developers, and others understand the potential value of distributed wind. In our paper, we develop a framework to provide a consistent and comprehensive approach to finding the net benefits of distributed wind to various stakeholders in different scenarios. We do this by considering the main use cases for distributed wind, and then developing a framework which is flexible for these various use cases and the relevant stakeholders while maintaining the same overall structure for analysis. Ongoing work includes applying this framework to valuing two distributed wind power systems, one in a remote village in Alaska and one in a front-of-the-meter deployment in Iowa. Our analysis aims to understand the full value that distributed wind is providing in these systems, including the resilience benefits it is contributing. As a better understanding of distributed wind valuation is gained, it will be easier for stakeholders to make informed decisions in order to have resilient renewable energy systems.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Availability and Performance Loss Factors for U.S. PV Fleet Systems

In the PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative, we partner with photovoltaic (PV) fleet owners to collect time-series PV production data and publish aggregated, anonymized results. This report is an update of our previous publications, specifically a FY 2021 performance index publication and a FY 2022 fleet degradation analysis. In this analysis, we have increased our data participants and system totals by around 10% to 8.5 GW and 24,000 separate inverter data channels. Four major analysis topics are considered in this report: Performance Index (PI) trends, PV system availability, soiling losses, and PV system degradation. Performance Index and inverter availability are assessed on a larger set of data from our FY 2021 report: 1,128 systems compared with 200 systems from before. The increased number of systems is due to an improved data quality methodology, as well as introducing new systems to the analysis. Overall results are similar to previously published values - overall inverter availability is low in the first six months of system performance before reaching steady-state by the end of the first year. Excluding this six-month startup period, system-level aggregated data shows a median (P50) system availability of 0.99 and a lower 10th percentile (P90) value of 0.95 (Figure ES-1). A dependence on system size is also demonstrated, with worse inverter availability results for larger PV systems. Causes of this effect are under investigation, but may be impacted by inverter size, which also show lower availability for larger inverter sizes. This report also investigates PI, correcting for degradation, soiling, snow, and availability. Following these corrections, the median system PI over its entire lifetime is 0.95. PI values reported here are approximately 3% lower than what we presented in our previous FY 2021 report. Soiling loss is assessed in a comprehensive way for the first time in this report. Results are presented using the COmbined Degradation and Soiling (CODS) method, as implemented in RdTools (v3.0.0a4). Soiling values are presented for 255 systems, which indicated irradiance-weighted soiling loss greater than 1%. The values have been published in an updated NREL soiling map at nrel.gov/pv/soiling.html. Finally, we investigated system degradation using three different data analysis techniques: conventional RdTools (year-on-year (YOY)), CODS, and Performance Loss Rate (PLR) analysis. Overall degradation results are consistent with our previous publications. Rerunning conventional RdTools on our updated fleet shows that some data partners have systematically fallen below the median system degradation rate (change over time) of -0.75 %/year. A comparison with PLR analysis, which looks at change in annual PI over time, shows that median system degradation is consistent with -0.5% to -0.75% per year change. However, at the P90 value, system degradation is substantially faster. These two results are consistent and indicate that resulting degradation statistics depend to a great degree on the population of PV systems making up the analysis cohort and whether soiling impacts the systems. The use of CODS for degradation analysis provides a different method for degradation assessment, which explicitly excludes the impact of recoverable soiling on degradation analysis. Excluding soiling effects yields an annual system degradation around -0.5% per year on average. This indicates that a portion of system performance loss may be attributed to periodic soiling that is not fully recovered. This report provides PV system owners/operators with background and methods to analyze PV system performance, give guidance for expected cohort performance, and performance loss values for use in pro-forma financial models, which guide new-build system design and bankability reports.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Utility Costs Savings and Resilience: A Case Study in Port Arthur, Texas

This study evaluates the techno-economic feasibility of integrating solar photovoltaics (PV), battery energy storage systems (BESS), and generators to enhance both cost savings and resilience in critical community facilities in Port Arthur, Texas. Using NREL's REopt model, we analyze four facilities: the Golden Triangle Empowerment Center (GTEC), Lamar State College (LSC), Port Arthur Independent School District (PAISD), and Port Arthur Transit (PAT). A key aspect of the analysis is the incorporation of the Value of Lost Load (VoLL) and microgrid upgrade costs to assess the hidden value of resilience during grid outages. While standalone PV scenarios show moderate cost reductions and a 10-15% decrease in CO2 emissions, the inclusion of resilience measures with BESS and generators significantly increases system costs. However, the hidden value of resilience - quantified through avoided outage costs - leads to a substantial improvement in financial outcomes, resulting in positive Net Present Value (NPV) at many sites. The study demonstrates that resilient solar and storage systems offer both economic and resilience benefits, particularly for underserved communities, by balancing energy savings and enhanced operational continuity during outages.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inferring the Contribution of Microbial Taxa and Organic Matter Molecular Formulas to Ecological Assembly

Understanding the mechanisms underlying the assembly of communities has long been the goal of many ecological studies. While several studies have evaluated community wide ecological assembly, fewer have focused on investigating the impacts of individual members within a community or assemblage on ecological assembly. Here, we adapted a previous null model β-nearest taxon index (βNTI) to measure the contribution of individual features within an ecological community to overall assembly. This new metric, called feature-level βNTI (βNTI feat ), enables researchers to determine whether ecological features (e.g., individual microbial taxa) contribute to divergence, convergence, or have insignificant impacts across spatiotemporally resolved metacommunities or meta-assemblages. Using βNTI feat , we revealed that unclassified microbial lineages often contributed to community divergence while diverse groups (e.g., Crenarchaeota, Alphaproteobacteria, and Gammaproteobacteria) contributed to convergence. We also demonstrate that βNTI feat can be extended to other ecological assemblages such as organic molecules comprising organic matter (OM) pools. OM had more inconsistent trends compared to the microbial community though CHO-containing molecular formulas often contributed to convergence, while nitrogen and phosphorus-containing formulas contributed to both convergence and divergence. A network analysis was used to relate βNTI feat values from the putatively active microbial community and the OM assemblage and examine potentially common contributions to ecological assembly across different communities/assemblages. This analysis revealed that P-containing formulas often contributed to convergence/divergence separately from other ecological features and N-containing formulas often contributed to assembly in coordination with microorganisms. Additionally, members of Family Geobacteraceae were often observed to contribute to convergence/divergence in conjunction with both N- and P-containing formulas, suggesting a coordinated ecological role for family members and the nitrogen/phosphorus cycle. Overall, we show that βNTI feat offers opportunities to investigate the community or assemblage members, which shape the phylogenetic or functional landscape, and demonstrate the potential to evaluate potential points of coordination across various community types.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-throughput determination of Hubbard $U$ and Hund $J$ values for transition metal oxides via the linear response formalism

DFT+U provides a convenient, cost-effective correction for the self-interaction error (SIE) that arises when describing correlated electronic states using conventional approximate density functional theory (DFT). The success of a DFT+U(+J) calculation hinges on the accurate determination of its Hubbard U and Hund J parameters, and the linear response (LR) methodology has proven to be computationally effective and accurate for calculating these parameters. This study provides a high-throughput computational analysis of the U and J values for transition metal d-electron states in a representative set of over 1000 magnetic transition metal oxides (TMOs), providing a frame of reference for researchers who use DFT+U to study transition metal oxides. In order to perform this high-throughput study, an ATOMATE workflow is developed for calculating U and J values automatically on massively parallel supercomputing architectures. Here, to demonstrate an application of this workflow, the spin-canting magnetic structure and unit cell parameters of the multiferroic olivine LiNiPO4 are calculated using the computed Hubbard U and Hund J values for Ni-d and O-p states, and are compared with experiment. Both the Ni-d U and J corrections have a strong effect on the Ni-moment canting angle. Additionally, including a O-pU value results in a significantly improved agreement between the computed lattice parameters and experiment

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cross talk between RNA N6‐methyladenosine methyltransferase‐like 3 and miR‐186 regulates hepatoblastoma progression through Wnt/β‐catenin signalling pathway

Abstract Objectives N6‐methyladenosine (m6A) is a ubiquitous epigenetic RNA modification that plays a pivotal role in tumour development and metastasis. In this study, we aimed to investigate the expression profiling, clinical significance, biological function and the regulation of m6A‐related genes in hepatoblastoma (HB). Materials and Methods The mRNA and protein expression levels of m6A‐related genes were analysed using Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) and tissue microarray (TMA) cohort. Kaplan‐Meier analysis was performed to evaluate the prognostic value of m6A‐related genes in HB. Knockdown of m6A‐related genes was conducted to analyse its function on cell proliferation, migration and invasion. Furthermore, bioinformatics analysis and experimental verification were used to explore the potential molecular mechanism and signalling pathway. Results We found that most m6A‐related genes were significantly upregulated in HB tumour tissues. High levels of methyltransferase‐like 3 (METTL3, P = .013), YTHDF2 ( P = .037) and FTO ( P = .032) indicated poor clinical outcomes, and the upregulation of METTL3 was an independent prognostic factor in HB patients. Functional assays showed that knockdown of METTL3 could dramatically suppress the proliferation, migration and invasion of HB cells. In addition, METTL3 was identified to be a direct target of microRNA‐186 (miR‐186). Consistently, miR‐186 was low expressed in HB tumour tissues. Moreover, overexpression of miR‐186 significantly inhibited cell aggressive phenotype both in vitro and in vivo, while the inhibitory effect could be reversed by METTL3 overexpression. Mechanism study indicated that miR‐186/METTL3 axis contributed to the progression of HB via the Wnt/β‐catenin signalling pathway. Conclusions M6A‐related genes were frequently dysregulated in HB. miR‐186/METTL3/Wnt/β‐catenin axis might serve as novel therapeutic targets and prognostic biomarkers in HB.

Cui, Xichun↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterization and Valuation of the Uncertainty of Calibrated Parameters in Microsimulation Decision Models

We evaluated the implications of different approaches to characterize the uncertainty of calibrated parameters of microsimulation decision models (DMs) and quantified the value of such uncertainty in decision making. We calibrated the natural history model of CRC to simulated epidemiological data with different degrees of uncertainty and obtained the joint posterior distribution of the parameters using a Bayesian approach. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) on all the model parameters with different characterizations of the uncertainty of the calibrated parameters. We estimated the value of uncertainty of the various characterizations with a value of information analysis. We conducted all analyses using high-performance computing resources running the Extreme-scale Model Exploration with Swift (EMEWS) framework. The posterior distribution had a high correlation among some parameters. The parameters of the Weibull hazard function for the age of onset of adenomas had the highest posterior correlation of -0.958. When comparing full posterior distributions and the maximum-a-posteriori estimate of the calibrated parameters, there is little difference in the spread of the distribution of the CEA outcomes with a similar expected value of perfect information (EVPI) of $\$$653 and $\$$685, respectively, at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $\$$66,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Ignoring correlation on the calibrated parameters’ posterior distribution produced the broadest distribution of CEA outcomes and the highest EVPI of $\$$809 at the same WTP threshold. Different characterizations of the uncertainty of calibrated parameters affect the expected value of eliminating parametric uncertainty on the CEA. Ignoring inherent correlation among calibrated parameters on a PSA overestimates the value of uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Constraining calculations of Pu 239 ( n , γ ) cross sections with multistep cascade γ -ray spectra measured at the DANCE facility

Measurements of multistep cascade gamma-ray spectra from several low-lying 1 + resonances in the Pu 239 ( n , γ ) reaction were made using the DANCE detector. The measured spectra are compared to spectra simulated using several models for the photon strength function and the nuclear level density, representing the first analysis of this nature on a fissile nucleus. In general, models of the photon strength function that included a strong M 1 “scissors mode” contribution coupled with a Gilbert-Cameron nuclear level density provided a reasonable description of the spectra. Simulations using photon strength functions and nuclear level densities specifically for Pu 240 , extracted by the Oslo method, resulted in a very good representation of the measured spectra. Neutron-capture cross section calculations that included the scissors mode provided a good estimate of the previously measured values, without additional normalization. However, the scissors-mode energy that produced the best description of the multistep cascade spectra was different from the value that best reproduced the capture cross section. In addition, the 〈 Γ γ 〉 inferred from the multistep cascade calculations was somewhat less than the tabulated value, which was determined from resonance analysis. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Ullmann, J. L. (ORCID:0000000207784405)↗