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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
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NASA NTRS1984

Cockpit Window Edge Proximity Effects on Judgements of Horizon Vertical Displacement

To quantify the influence of a spatially fixed edge on vertical displacement threshold, twenty-four males (12 pilots, 12 non-pilots) were presented a series of forced choice, paired comparison trials in which a 32 deg arc wide, thin, luminous horizontal stimulus line moved smoothly downward through five angles from a common starting position within a three second-long period. The five angles were 1.4, 1.7, 2, 2.3, and 2.6 deg. Each angle was presented paired with itself and the other four angles in all combinations in random order. For each pair of trials the observer had to choose which trial possessed the largest displacement. A confidence response also was made. The independent variable was the angular separation between the lower edge of a stable 'window' aperture through which the stimulus was seen to move and the lowest position attained by the stimulus. It was found that vertical displacement accuracy is inversely related to the angle separating the stimulus and the fixed window edge (p = .05). In addition, there is a strong tendency for pilot confidence to be lower than that of non-pilots for each of the three angular separations. These results are discussed in erms of selected cockpit features and as they relate to how pilots judge changes in aircraft pitch attitude.

Haines, R. F.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Areas of Polar Coronal Holes from 1996 Through 2010

Polar coronal holes (PCHs) trace the magnetic variability of the Sun throughout the solar cycle. Their size and evolution have been studied as proxies for the global magnetic field. We present measurements of the PCH areas from 1996 through 2010, derived from an updated perimeter-tracing method and two synoptic-map methods. The perimeter tracing method detects PCH boundaries along the solar limb, using full-disk images from the SOlar and Heliospheric Observatory/Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (SOHO/EIT). One synoptic-map method uses the line-of-sight magnetic field from the SOHO/Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) to determine the unipolarity boundaries near the poles. The other method applies thresholding techniques to synoptic maps created from EUV image data from EIT. The results from all three methods suggest that the solar maxima and minima of the two hemispheres are out of phase. The maximum PCH area, averaged over the methods in each hemisphere, is approximately 6 % during both solar minima spanned by the data (between Solar Cycles 22/23 and 23/24). The northern PCH area began a declining trend in 2010, suggesting a downturn toward the maximum of Solar Cycle 24 in that hemisphere, while the southern hole remained large throughout 2010.

Corona↗
NASA NTRS2020

Revisiting the Effectiveness Of HCHO/NO2 Ratios for Inferring Ozone Sensitivity to Its Precursors Using High Resolution Airborne Remote Sensing Observations in A High Ozone Episode During the KORUS-AQ Campaign

The nonlinear chemical processes involved in ozone production (P(O3)) have necessitated using proxy indicators to convey information about the primary dependence of P(O3) on volatile organic compounds (VOCs) or nitrogen oxides (NOx). In particular, the ratio of remotely sensed columns of formaldehyde (HCHO) to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) has been widely used for studying O3 sensitivity. Previous studies found that the errors in retrievals and the incoherent relationship between the column and the near-surface concentrations are a barrier in applying the ratio in a robust way. In addition to these obstacles, we provide calculational-observational evidence, using an ensemble of 0-D photochemical box models constrained by DC-8 aircraft measurements on an ozone event during the Korea-United States Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) campaign over Seoul, to demonstrate the chemical feedback of NO2 on the formation of HCHO is a controlling factor for the transition line between NOx-sensitive and NOx-saturated regimes. A fixed value (~2.7) of the ratio of the chemical loss of NOx (LNOx) to the chemical loss of HO2+RO2 (LROx) perceptibly differentiates the regimes. Following this value, data points with a ratio of HCHO/NO2 less than 1 can be safely classified as NOx-saturated regime, whereas points with ratios between 1 and 4 fall into one or the other regime. We attribute this mainly to the HCHO-NO2 chemical relationship causing the transition line to occur at larger (smaller) HCHO/NO2 ratios in VOC-rich (VOC-poor) environments. We then redefine the transition line to LNOx/LROx~2.7 that accounts for the HCHO-NO2 chemical relationship leading to HCHO = 3.7 × (NO2 – 1.14 × 1016 molec.cm-2). Although the revised formula is locally calibrated (i.e., requires for readjustment for other regions), its mathematical format removes the need for having a wide range of thresholds used in HCHO/NO2 ratios that is a result of the chemical feedback. Therefore, to be able to properly take the chemical feedback into consideration, the use of HCHO = a × (NO2 – b) formula should be preferred to the ratio in future works. We then use the Geostationary Trace gas and Aerosol Sensor Optimization (GeoTASO) airborne instrument to study O3 sensitivity in Seoul. The unprecedented spatial (250 × 250 m2) and temporal (~every 2 h) resolutions of HCHO and NO2 observations form the sensor enhance our understanding of P(O3) in Seoul; rather than providing a crude label for the entire city, more in-depth variabilities in chemical regimes are observed that should be able to inform mitigation strategies correspondingly.

KORUS-AQ; formaldehyde; NOx; VOC; OMI; GeoTASO; oz↗
NASA NTRS1991

Measurement and modification of the EEG and related behavior

Electrophysiological changes in the sensorimotor pathways were found to accompany the effect of rhythmic EEG patterns in the sensorimotor cortex. Additionally, several striking behavioral changes were seen, including in particular an enhancement of sleep and an elevation of seizure threshold to epileptogenic agents. This raised the possibility that human seizure disorders might be influenced therapeutically by similar training. Our objective in human EEG feedback training became not only the facilitation of normal rhythmic patterns, but also the suppression of abnormal activity, thus requiring complex contingencies directed to the normalization of the sensorimotor EEG. To achieve this, a multicomponent frequency analysis was developed to extract and separate normal and abnormal elements of the EEG signal. Each of these elements was transduced to a specific component of a visual display system, and these were combined through logic circuits to present the subject with a symbolic display. Variable criteria provided for the gradual shaping of EEG elements towards the desired normal pattern. Some 50-70% of patients with poorly controlled seizure disorders experienced therapeutic benefits from this approach in our laboratory, and subsequently in many others. A more recent application of this approach to the modification of human brain function in our lab has been directed to the dichotomous problems of task overload and underload in the contemporary aviation environment. At least 70% of all aviation accidents have been attributed to the impact of these kinds of problems on crew performance. The use of EEG in this context has required many technical innovations and the application of the latest advances in EEG signal analysis. Our first goal has been the identification of relevant EEG characteristics. Additionally, we have developed a portable recording and analysis system for application in this context. Findings from laboratory and in-flight studies suggest that we will be able to detect appropriate changes in brain function, and feed this information to on-board computers for modification of mission requirements and/or crew status.

Sterman, M. B.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Vertical Profiles of Aerosol Optical Properties Over Central Illinois and Comparison with Surface and Satellite Measurements

Between June 2006 and September 2009, an instrumented light aircraft measured over 400 vertical profiles of aerosol and trace gas properties over eastern and central Illinois. The primary objectives of this program were to (1) measure the in situ aerosol properties and determine their vertical and temporal variability and (2) relate these aircraft measurements to concurrent surface and satellite measurements. Underflights of the CALIPSO satellite show reasonable agreement in a majority of retrieved profiles between aircraft-measured extinction at 532 nm (adjusted to ambient relative humidity) and CALIPSO-retrieved extinction, and suggest that routine aircraft profiling programs can be used to better understand and validate satellite retrieval algorithms. CALIPSO tended to overestimate the aerosol extinction at this location in some boundary layer flight segments when scattered or broken clouds were present, which could be related to problems with CALIPSO cloud screening methods. The in situ aircraft-collected aerosol data suggest extinction thresholds for the likelihood of aerosol layers being detected by the CALIOP lidar. These statistical data offer guidance as to the likelihood of CALIPSO's ability to retrieve aerosol extinction at various locations around the globe.

Sheridan P. J.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The ground truth analysis of rain gauge data for the TRMM project

As a part of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Missioin (TRMM) ground truth program to determine the diurnal variability of the area wide rain rates, the rain rate PDFs, and their effect on the area integral algorithm, rain rate data have been collected from a network of gages located in the area near the Cape Canaveral and Kennedy Space Center, in the period beginning in September 1987. In the preliminary statistical analysis, based on the rain rates derived from the eleven gages, the seasonal diurnal rainfall and network averaged rain rates are determined. The analysis was performed in two steps: determination of the hourly and daily rain accumulations and rain rates; and computation of the fraction of hourly and daily rain rates that exceed a particular threshold, and analysis of the hourly and daily rain rate PDFs for the network. The results indicate that there are diurnal and seasonal variations in the components which determine the network rain rate PDFs.

Kowalewsky, Karen J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Which Way is Up? Lessons Learned from Space Shuttle Sensorimotor Research

The Space Shuttle Program provided the opportunity to examine sensorimotor adaptation to space flight in unprecedented numbers of astronauts, including many over multiple missions. Space motion sickness (SMS) severity was highly variable across crewmembers. SMS generally lasted 2-3 days in-flight with approximately 1/3 of crewmembers experiencing moderate to severe symptoms, and decreased incidence in repeat flyers. While SMS has proven difficult to predict from susceptibility to terrestrial analogs, symptoms were alleviated by medications, restriction of early activities, maintaining familiar orientation with respect to the visual environment and maintaining contact cues. Adaptive changes were also reflected by the oculomotor and perceptual disturbances experienced early inflight and by the perceptual and motor coordination problems experienced during re-entry and landing. According to crew self-reports, systematic head movements performed during reentry, as long as paced within one's threshold for motion tolerance, facilitated the early readaptation process. The Shuttle provided early postflight crew access to document the initial performance decrements and time course of recovery. These early postflight measurements were critical to inform the program of risks associated with extending the duration of Shuttle missions. Neurological postflight deficits were documented using a standardized subjective rating by flight surgeons. Computerized dynamic posturography was also implemented as a quantitative means of assessing sensorimotor function to support crew return-to-duty assessments. Towards the end of the Shuttle Program, more emphasis has been placed on mapping physiological changes to functional performance. Future commercial flights will benefit from pre-mission training including exposures to launch and entry G transitions and sensorimotor adaptability assessments. While SMS medication usage will continue to be refined, non-pharmacological countermeasures (e.g., sensory aids) will have both space and Earth-based applications. Early postflight field tests are recommended to provide the evidence base for best practices for future commercial flight programs. Learning Objective: Overview of the Space Shuttle Program regarding adaptive changes in sensorimotor function, including what was learned from research, what was implemented for medical operations, and what is recommended for commercial flights.

Wood, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Delineation of vulnerable areas to water erosion in a mountain region using SDR-InVEST model: A case study of the Ourika watershed, Morocco

The Ourika watershed is characterized by higher than average flood flows, a rugged topography, a sparse vegetation cover and a friable substrate that makes it vulnerable to soil erosion. Soil is an important non-renewable asset capital, providing several ecosystem services that sustain life through physical and biological regulation processes. The loss, or otherwise, redistribution of biota by soil erosion in the Ourika watershed has received little attention and thus constitutes a key knowledge gap that needs to be addressed. This study quantifies the level of erosion and maps its spatial distribution in the watershed using the Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs model (InVEST3.6.0). The SDR maps the overland sediment generation and delivery to the stream at the watershed level using rainfall, soil properties, topography, cover management and cropping practices as predefined set of input variables. Recommended internal model calibration was used and results were compared to similar studies carried out in different parts of Morocco for validation. The results reveal that 93% of the watershed is subject to a strong rainfall aggressiveness greater than 50 MJ mm ha–1 h–1 yr1 under an average rainfall intensity of 541 mm/year, rainfall capacity to initiate the detachment and transport of soil particles by runoff, and only 11.5% of the watershed area is protected with vegetative cover. We find that overall, the Ourika watershed is losing its soil to erosion at an alarming average rate of 258.48 ton.ha–1.yr–1, a rate well above the tolerable threshold of 7ton.ha–1.yr–1. The spatial distribution of this loss shows areas that need to be urgently remedied. The primary factors for soil erosion in the Ourika watershed appear to be related to the aggressive nature of local rainfall and the inherent susceptibility of soils, which can be costly to this cash-crop region. Because rainfall intensity, soil properties, and topography are intrinsic characteristics of the watershed, we suggest that seasonally adapted cropping rotations that maintains conservative practices with a high cover management may reduce soil erosion in the Ourika watershed.

Erosion↗
NASA NTRS1973

Variable features on Mars. II - Mariner 9 global results.

Systematic Mariner 9 monitoring of the space and time distribution of Martian bright and dark markings, the streaks and splotches, indicates a range of global correlations. The time-variable classical dark markings owe their configurations and variability to their constituent streaks and splotches, produced by windblown dust. Streaks and splotches are consistent wind direction indicators. Correlation of global streak patterns with general circulation models shows that velocities of about 50 to 90 m/sec above the boundary layer are necessary to initiate grain motion on the surface and to produce streaks and splotches. Detailed examples of changes in Syrtis Major, Lunae Palus, and Promethei Sinus are generally consistent with removal of bright sand and dust and uncovering of darker underlying material as the active agent in such changes, although dark mobile material probably also exists on Mars. The generation of streaks and the progressive albedo changes observed require only threshold velocities of about 2 m/sec for about 1 day at the grain surface.

Sagan, C.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Fuzzy set methods for object recognition in space applications

During the reporting period, the development of the theory and application of methodologies for decision making under uncertainty was addressed. Two subreports are included; the first on properties of general hybrid operators, while the second considers some new research on generalized threshold logic units. In the first part, the properties of the additive gamma-model, where the intersection part is first considered to be the product of the input values and the union part is obtained by an extension of De Morgan's law to fuzzy sets, is explored. Then the Yager's class of union and intersection is used in the additive gamma-model. The inputs are weighted to some power that represents their importance and thus their contribution to the compensation process. In the second part, the extension of binary logic synthesis methods to multiple valued logic synthesis methods to enable the synthesis of decision networks when the input/output variables are not binary is discussed.

Keller, James M.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Stress-corrosion cracking in metals

Criteria and recommended practices for preventing stress-corrosion cracking from impairing the structural integrity and flightworthiness of space vehicles are presented. The important variables affecting stress-corrosion cracking are considered to be the environment, including time and temperature; metal composition, and structure; and sustained tensile stress. For designing spacecraft structures that are free of stress-corrosion cracking for the service life of the vehicle the following rules apply: (1) identification and control of the environments to which the structure will be exposed during construction, storage, transportation, and use; (2) selection of alloy compositions and tempers which are resistant to stress-corrosion cracking in the identified environment; (3) control of fabrication and other processes which may introduce residual tensile stresses or damage the material; (4) limitation of the combined residual and applied tensile stresses to below the threshold stress level for the onset of cracking throughout the service life of the vehicle; and (5) establishment of a thorough inspection program.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2019

Enhancing GPM Passive and Combined Microwave Algorithms with Dynamic Surface Information for Drizzle Retrieval and Improved Precipitation Detection Over Land

Following the 2014 launch of the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM), an unprecedented combination of coincident active and passive microwave observations are available for state of the art precipitation retrieval. The GPM Combined Algorithm forms the backbone of this effort, optimizing geophysical variables for agreement with the full suite of multi-spectral information content. These combined retrievals are then utilized, along with a radiative transfer model, as a database applied for retrievals across a constellation of passive microwave radiometers of varying frequencies. By keeping such retrievals related through the transfer standard of the combined algorithm, level 3 products such as the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) are able to provide consistent global products for users at the higher temporal resolution required for hydrological applications. In initial versions of the combined product, precipitation retrievals are carried out only in the presence of a signal from the active radar. As a result, light precipitation and drizzle below the threshold of DPR sensitivity are not included in any of the products down the chain from the constellation to IMERG. In this work, the effects of enhancing the retrievals with a surface emissivity and non-raining water vapor retrieval using the passive observations are explored. Over both ocean and land, the surface retrieval is used to identify areas with high probability of light precipitation and drizzle which is then quantified using techniques derived from the higher sensitivity CloudSat mission. Results indicate successful inclusion of drizzle in the retrievals that can then be included in the constellation databases, as well as improvement in passive microwave false positive precipitation signals over land in cases where surface scattering was misinterpreted as precipitation signal. The inclusion of the dynamic surface information also creates a more robust, radiometrically consistent retrieval scheme for process studies and hydrologic applications.

Ringerud, Sarah↗
NASA NTRS1999

Miniature EPSPs and sensory encoding in the primary afferents of the vestibular lagena of the toadfish, Opsanus tau

The synaptic activity transmitted from vestibular hair cells of the lagena to primary afferent neurons was recorded in vitro using sharp, intracellular microelectrodes. At rest, the activity was composed of miniature excitatory postsynaptic potentials (mEPSPs) at frequencies from 5 to 20/s and action potentials (APs) at frequencies betwen 0 and 10/s. mEPSPs recorded from a single fiber displayed a large variability. For mEPSPs not triggering APs, amplitudes exhibited an average coefficient of variance (CV) of 0.323 and rise times an average CV of 0.516. APs were only triggered by mEPSPs with larger amplitudes (estimated 4-6 mV) and/or steeper maximum rate of rise (10.9 mV/ms, +/- 3.7 SD, n=4 experiments) compared to (3.50 mV/ms, +/-0.07 SD, n=6 experiments) for nontriggering mEPSPs. The smallest mEPSPs showed a fast rise time (0.99 ms between 10% and 90% of peak amplitude) and limited variability across fibers (CV:0.18) confirming that they were not attenuated signals, but rather represented single-transmitter discharges (TDs). The mEPSP amplitude and rise-time relationship suggests that many mEPSPs represented several, rather than a single pulse of secretion of TDs. According to the estimated overall TD frequency, the coincidence of TDs contributing to the same mEPSP were not statistically independent, indicating a positive interaction between TDs that is reminiscent of the way subminiature signals group to form miniature signals at the neuromuscular junction. Depending on the duration and intensity of efferent stimulation, a complete block of AP initiation occurred either immediately or after a delay of a few seconds. Efferent stimulation did not significantly change AP threshold level, but abruptly decreased mEPSP frequency to a near-complete block that followed the block of APs. Maximum mEPSP rate of rise decreased during, and recovered progressively after, efferent stimulation. After termination of efferent stimulation, mEPSP amplitude did not recover instantly and for a few seconds the amplitude distribution of synaptic events showed fewer large-amplitude events than during the control period. This confirms that mEPSP amplitude and rate of rise properties, which are critical for triggering afferent APs, are modified by efferent activity. The depression of afferent AP firing during efferent stimulation corresponded to a decrease in mEPSP frequency and, to a lesser extent, a decrease in mEPSP amplitude and rate of rise, suggesting, a decrease in the level of interaction among TDs contibuting to a mEPSP.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2016

Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

Populations↗
NASA NTRS2021

Planetary Boundary Layer Height Estimates From ICESat-2 and CATS Backscatter Measurements

The lowest layer of the atmosphere in which all human activity occurs is called the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL). All physical interactions with the surface, such as heat and moisture transport, pollution dispersion and transport happen in this relatively shallow layer. The ability to understand and model the complex interactions that occur in the PBL is very important to air quality, weather prediction and climate modeling. A fundamental and physically important property of the PBL is its thickness or height. This work presents two methods to obtain global PBL height using satellite lidar data from the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) and the Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS). The first method is a straightforward backscatter threshold technique and the second is a machine learning approach known as a Convolutional Neural Network. The PBL height retrievals from the two methods are compared with each other and with PBL height from the NASA GEOS MERRA-2 reanalysis. The lidar-retrieved PBL heights have a high degree of spatial correlation with the model heights but are generally higher over ocean (∼400 m) and over northern hemisphere high latitude regions (∼1,000 m). Over mid-latitude and tropical land areas, the satellite estimated PBL heights agree well with model mid-day estimates. This work demonstrates the feasibility of using satellite lidar backscatter measurements to obtain global PBL height estimates, as well as determining seasonal and regional variability of PBL height.

Stephen P Palm↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Detection of Drizzle and Light Snowfall Over the Southern Ocean Using the GPM Combined Algorithm

Following the 2014 launch of the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM), an unprecedented combination of coincident active and passive microwave observations are available for state of the art precipitation retrieval. The GPM Combined Algorithm forms the backbone of this effort, optimizing geophysical variables for agreement with the multi-spectral information content. Combined retrievals are then utilized, along with a radiative transfer model, as a database applied for retrievals across a constellation of passive microwave radiometers of varying frequencies and viewing geometries. By keeping such retrievals related through the transfer standard of the combined algorithm, level 3 products such as the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) are able to provide consistent global products for users at the higher temporal resolution required for hydrological applications on the global scale. In the current version of the combined product, precipitation retrievals are carried out only in the presence of a signal from the active radar. As a result, light precipitation and drizzle below the threshold of radar sensitivity are not included in any of the products down the chain from the constellation to IMERG. In this work, the effects of enhancing the retrievals with an optimal estimation-type (OE) water vapor and cloud retrieval using the passive observations are explored over the Southern Ocean on a regional scale. Non-convergence of the OE in areas with no detectable radar signal is used to identify areas with high probability of light precipitation and drizzle. Microphysical scale characterization of the light precipitation will be explored using information derived from the higher sensitivity CloudSat mission along with model information to identify and associate the related atmospheric state and dynamics. This is a physically-based approach requiring radiometric consistency with all available multi-spectral observations. Retrieved drizzle can then be included in the constellation databases continuing across all scales through to the level 3 products. The technique, successfully demonstrated for the Southern Ocean, can be easily adapted for light precipitation retrieval over other areas and surfaces leading to a global climatology of light precipitation.

Sarah Rinegerud↗
NASA NTRS2019

Characterization of Low Frequency Auditory Filters

The purpose of this study is to characterize auditory filters at low frequencies, defined as below about 100 Hz. Three experiments were designed and executed. They were conducted in the Exterior Effects Room at the NASA Langley Research Center, a psychoacoustic facility designed for presentation of aircraft flyover sounds to groups of test subjects. The first experiment measured 36 subjects’ hearing threshold for pure tones (at 25, 31.5, 40, 50, 63 and 80 Hz) in “quiet” conditions. The subjects, male and female, had a wide age range. This experiment allowed the performance of the test facility to be assessed and also provided screened test subjects for participation in subsequent experiments. The second and third experiments used 20 and 10 test subjects, respectively, and measured psychophysical tuning curves (PTCs) that describe auditory filters with center frequencies of approximately 63 and 50 Hz. The latter is assumed to be the lowest (bottom) auditory filter; thus, sounds at frequencies below about 50 Hz are perceived via the lower skirt of this lowest filter. All experiments used an adaptive, three-alternative forced-choice test procedure using either variable level tones or variable level, narrowband noise maskers. Measured PTCs were found to be very similar to other recently published data, both in terms of mean values and intersubject variation, despite different experimental protocols, different test facilities, and a wide range in subjects’ age.

Rafaelof, Menachem↗
NASA NTRS2016

How Much Global Burned Area Can Be Forecast on Seasonal Time Scales Using Sea Surface Temperatures?

Large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) patterns influence the interannual variability of burned area in many regions by means of climate controls on fuel continuity, amount, and moisture content. Some of the variability in burned area is predictable on seasonal timescales because fuel characteristics respond to the cumulative effects of climate prior to the onset of the fire season. Here we systematically evaluated the degree to which annual burned area from the Global Fire Emissions Database version 4 with small fires (GFED4s) can be predicted using SSTs from 14 different ocean regions. We found that about 48 of global burned area can be forecast with a correlation coefficient that is significant at a p < 0.01 level using a single ocean climate index (OCI) 3 or more months prior to the month of peak burning. Continental regions where burned area had a higher degree of predictability included equatorial Asia, where 92% of the burned area exceeded the correlation threshold, and Central America, where 86% of the burned area exceeded this threshold. Pacific Ocean indices describing the El Nino-Southern Oscillation were more important than indices from other ocean basins, accounting for about 1/3 of the total predictable global burned area. A model that combined two indices from different oceans considerably improved model performance, suggesting that fires in many regions respond to forcing from more than one ocean basin. Using OCI-burned area relationships and a clustering algorithm, we identified 12 hotspot regions in which fires had a consistent response to SST patterns. Annual burned area in these regions can be predicted with moderate confidence levels, suggesting operational forecasts may be possible with the aim of improving ecosystem management.

Chen, Yang↗