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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

Modelling Freshwater Resources at the Global Scale: Challenges and Prospects

Quantification of spatially and temporally resolved water flows and water storage variations for all land areas of the globe is required to assess water resources, water scarcity and flood hazards, and to understand the Earth system. This quantification is done with the help of global hydrological models (GHMs). What are the challenges and prospects in the development and application of GHMs? Seven important challenges are presented. (1) Data scarcity makes quantification of human water use difficult even though significant progress has been achieved in the last decade. (2) Uncertainty of meteorological input data strongly affects model outputs. (3) The reaction of vegetation to changing climate and CO2 concentrations is uncertain and not taken into account in most GHMs that serve to estimate climate change impacts. (4) Reasons for discrepant responses of GHMs to changing climate have yet to be identified. (5) More accurate estimates of monthly time series of water availability and use are needed to provide good indicators of water scarcity. (6) Integration of gradient-based groundwater modelling into GHMs is necessary for a better simulation of groundwater-surface water interactions and capillary rise. (7) Detection and attribution of human interference with freshwater systems by using GHMs are constrained by data of insufficient quality but also GHM uncertainty itself. Regarding prospects for progress, we propose to decrease the uncertainty of GHM output by making better use of in situ and remotely sensed observations of output variables such as river discharge or total water storage variations by multi-criteria validation, calibration or data assimilation. Finally, we present an initiative that works towards the vision of hyper resolution global hydrological modelling where GHM outputs would be provided at a 1-km resolution with reasonable accuracy.

Global hydrological model↗
NASA NTRS2016

Exploring the Role of Humans and Climate over the Balkan Landscape: 500 Years of Vegetational History of Serbia

We present the first, well-dated, high-resolution record of vegetation and landscape change from Serbia, which spans the past 500 years. Biological proxies (pollen, spores, and charcoal), geochemical analysis through X-ray Fluorescence (XRF), and a detailed chronology based on AMS C-14 dating from a western Serbian sinkhole core suggest complex woodland-grassland dynamics and strong erosional signals throughout the Little Ice Age (LIA). An open landscape with prominent steppe vegetation (e.g. Poaceae, Chenopodiaceae) and minor woodland exists during 1540-1720 CE (early LIA), while the late LIA (1720-1850 CE) in this record shows higher tree percentages possibly due to increased moisture availability. The post LIA Era (1850-2012 CE) brings a disturbed type of vegetation with the presence of weedy genera and an increase in regional woodland. Anthropogenic indicators for agricultural, pastoral and fire practices in the region together attest to the dominant role of humans in shaping this Balkan landscape throughout the interval. The changing nature of human interference, potentially as a response to underlying climatic transitions, is evident through large-scale soil depletion resulting from grazing and land clearance during the early LIA and stabilization of arable lands during the late and post-LIA eras.

Topography↗
NASA NTRS1994

Estimation of Forest Canopy Leaf Area Index Using Directional ASAS Measurements

Coniferous forest canopy reflectance was derived from radiance data collected the Advanced Solid-State Array Spectroradiometer (ASAS). Red and Near-InfraRed (NIR) responses were examined as a function of view zenith angle (theta(sub v)), solar zenith angle (theta(sub s)), and site characteristics. Relationships were formulated between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and canopy Leaf Area Index (LAI). It is suggested that the offnadir NDVI is a more stable estimator of LAI than is the nadir-view NDVI.

Johnson, Lee F.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Maintenance of Ecosystem Nitrogen Limitation by Ephemeral Forest Disturbance: An Assessment using MODIS, Hyperion, and Landsat ETM+

Ephemeral disturbances, such as non-lethal insect defoliations and crown damage from meteorological events, can significantly affect the delivery of ecosystem services by helping maintain nitrogen (N) limitation in temperate forest ecosystems. However, the impacts of these disturbances are difficult to observe across the broad-scales at which they affect ecosystem function. Using remotely sensed measures and field data, we find support for the hypothesis that ephemeral disturbances help maintain landscape-wide ecosystem N limitation. Specifically, a phenology-based defoliation index derived from daily MODIS satellite imagery predicts three ecosystem responses from oak-dominated forested watersheds: elevated stream water N export (R(exp 2) = 0.48), decreased foliar N (R(exp 2) = 0.69, assessed with Hyperion imagery), and reduced vegetation growth vigor (R(exp 2) = 0.49, assessed with Landsat ETM+ imagery). The results indicate that ephemeral disturbances and other forest stressors may sustain N limitation by reducing the ability of trees to compete for--and retain--soil available N.

McNeil, Brenden E.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Contribution of Near Real Time MODIS-Based Forest Disturbance Detection Products to a National Forest Threat Early Warning System

This presentation discusses an effort to compute and post weekly MODIS forest change products for the conterminous US (CONUS), as part of national forest threat early warning system (EWS) known as the U.S. Forest Change Assessment Viewer (FCAV). The US Forest Service, NASA, USGS, and ORNL are working collaboratively to contribute weekly change products to this EWS. Large acreages of the nation's forests are being disturbed by a growing multitude of biotic and abiotic threats that can act either singularly or in combination. When common at regional scales, such disturbances can pose hazards and threats to floral and faunal bio-diversity, ecosystem sustainability, ecosystem services, and human settlements across the conterminous US. Regionally evident forest disturbances range from ephemeral periodic canopy defoliation to stand replacement mortality events due to insects, disease, fire, hurricanes, tornadoes, ice, hail, and drought. Mandated by the Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003, this forest threat EWS has been actively developed since 2006 and on-line since 2010. This FCAV system employs 250-meter MODIS NDVI-based forest change products as a key element of the system, providing regional and CONUS scale products in near real time every 8 days. Each forest change product in FCAV is based on current versus historical 24 day composite NDVI data gridded at 231.66 meter resolution. Current NDVI is derived from USGS eMODIS expedited products. MOD13 NDVI is used for constructing historical baselines. CONUS change products are computed for all forests as % change in the current versus historical NDVI. Change products are computed according to previous year, previous 3 years and previous 8 year historical baselines. The use of multiple baselines enables disturbance anomaly phenology to be more fully assessed. CONUS forest change products are posted each week on the FCAV, a web mapping service maintained by the National Environmental Modeling and Analysis Center. The FCAV EWS has been used to aid multiple Federal and State agency forest management activities, including aerial disturbance detection surveys, as well as rapid response preliminary assessments of timber loss due to tornadoes, regional drought studies, and fire damage assessments. The FCAV allows end-users to assess the context of apparent forest vegetation change with respect to ancillary data, such as land cover, topography, hydrology, climate variables, and administrative boundaries. Such change products are being evaluated through case studies involving comparison with higher spatial resolution satellite, aerial, and field data. The presentation will include multiple examples in which regionally evident forest disturbances were successfully detected and monitored with the MODIS-based change products, as part of the FCAV. FCAV's MODIS forest change products enable end-users (e.g., resource managers) to monitor forest hazards at regional scales throughout the year and across the nation.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗
NASA NTRS2004

NASA Tech Briefs, February 2004

Topics include: Simulation Testing of Embedded Flight Software; Improved Indentation Test for Measuring Nonlinear Elasticity; Ultraviolet-Absorption Spectroscopic Biofilm Monitor; Electronic Tongue for Quantitation of Contaminants in Water; Radar for Measuring Soil Moisture Under Vegetation; Modular Wireless Data-Acquisition and Control System; Microwave System for Detecting Ice on Aircraft; Routing Algorithm Exploits Spatial Relations; Two-Finger EKG Method of Detecting Evasive Responses; Updated System-Availability and Resource-Allocation Program; Routines for Computing Pressure Drops in Venturis; Software for Fault-Tolerant Matrix Multiplication; Reproducible Growth of High-Quality Cubic-SiC Layers; Nonlinear Thermoelastic Model for SMAs and SMA Hybrid Composites; Liquid-Crystal Thermosets, a New Generation of High-Performance Liquid-Crystal Polymers; Formulations for Stronger Solid Oxide Fuel-Cell Electrolytes; Simulation of Hazards and Poses for a Rocker-Bogie Rover; Autonomous Formation Flight; Expandable Purge Chambers Would Protect Cryogenic Fittings; Wavy-Planform Helicopter Blades Make Less Noise; Miniature Robotic Spacecraft for Inspecting Other Spacecraft; Miniature Ring-Shaped Peristaltic Pump; Compact Plasma Accelerator; Improved Electrohydraulic Linear Actuators; A Software Architecture for Semiautonomous Robot Control; Fabrication of Channels for Nanobiotechnological Devices; Improved Thin, Flexible Heat Pipes; Miniature Radioisotope Thermoelectric Power Cubes; Permanent Sequestration of Emitted Gases in the Form of Clathrate Hydrates; Electrochemical, H2O2-Boosted Catalytic Oxidation System; Electrokinetic In Situ Treatment of Metal-Contaminated Soil; Pumping Liquid Oxygen by Use of Pulsed Magnetic Fields; Magnetocaloric Pumping of Liquid Oxygen; Tailoring Ion-Thruster Grid Apertures for Greater Efficiency; and Lidar for Guidance of a Spacecraft or Exploratory Robot.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2021

Using SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture to Constrain MOD16 Evapotranspiration over the Contiguous USA

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key hydrologic variable linking the Earth’s water, carbon and energy cycles. At large spatial scales, remote sensing-based (RS) models are often used to quantify ET. Despite the large number of RS ET models available, few include soil moisture as a key environmental input, which can degrade model accuracy and utility. Here, we use model assimilation enhanced soil moisture estimates from the NASA SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) mission as a water supply control in the MOD16 ET algorithm framework. SMAP-derived daily surface (0-5cm depth) and root zone (0-1m depth) soil moisture are used with MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) vegetation observations, and 4km gridded regional surface meteorology (Gridmet) as primary inputs for estimating daily ET and underlying model soil and stomatal conductance terms. We calibrated the model environmental response parameters using tower eddy covariance ET observations representing major North American biomes. The model ET results were validated using a holdout set of tower observations spanning a large regional climate gradient. The updated ET estimates outperform the baseline MOD16 product across all tower validation sites (RMSE = 0.758 vs 1.108 mm day-1; R2 = 0.68 vs0.45, respectively). Smaller relative improvements were obtained using a recalibrated model with 4km Gridmet meteorology, but no soil moisture control (RMSE = 0.813 mm day-1; R2 = 0.66), indicating that these changes are essential for the improved model performance. The soil moisture-constrained model improvements and relative benefits from the SMAP observations are greater in arid climates, consistent with stronger soil moisture control on ET in water-limited regions. The use of SMAP soil moisture as an additional model constraint improves MOD16 regional performance and provides a new framework for investigating both soil and atmosphere controls on ET.

SMAP↗
NASA NTRS2023

Flood Impacts on Net Ecosystem Exchange in the Midwestern and Southern United States in 2019

Climate extremes such as droughts, floods, heatwaves, frosts, and windstorms add considerable variability to the global year-to-year increase in atmospheric CO(2) through their influence on terrestrial ecosystems. While the impact of droughts on terrestrial ecosystems has received considerable attention, the response to flooding is not well understood. To improve upon this knowledge, the impact of the 2019 anomalously wet conditions over the Midwest and Southern US on CO(2) vegetation fluxes is examined in the context of 2017–2018 when such precipitation anomalies were not observed. CO(2) is simulated with NASA's Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) combined with the Low-order Flux Inversion, where fluxes of CO(2) are estimated using a suite of remote sensing measurements including greenness, night lights, and fire radiative power as well as with a bias correction based on insitu observations. Net ecosystem exchange CO(2) tracers are separated into the three regions covering the Midwest, South, and Eastern Texas and adjusted to match CO(2) observations from towers located in Iowa, Mississippi, and Texas. Results indicate that for the Midwestern region consisting primarily of corn and soybeans crops, flooding contributes to a 15%–25% reduction of annual net carbon uptake in 2019 in comparison to 2017 and 2018. These results are supported by independent reports of changes in agricultural activity. For the Southern region, comprised mainly of non-crop vegetation, annual net carbon uptake is enhanced in 2019 by about 10%–20% in comparison to 2017 and 2018. These outcomes show the heterogeneity in effects that excess wetness can bring to diverse ecosystems.

Nikolay Balashov↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Observation-Driven Framework for Modeling Post-Fire Hydrologic Response: Evaluation for Two Central California Case Studies

In a warming climate, wildfires are becoming increasingly common, especially in semi-arid environments. Wildfires can disrupt forest ecosystems and induce changes to the land surface. Collectively, these impacts can alter the hydrologic response of a catchment following a fire, resulting in increased potential for surface runoff, reduced evapotranspiration, and, ultimately, a higher risk for flash flooding and mass wasting. The timescale for post-fire recovery of hydrological processes to return to pre-fire conditions is not well established due to the lack of ground measurements. Accurate characterization of fire impacts on hydrologic response is also challenging to simulate, given the complex interplay of various processes. Here, we present a generalized framework to quantify wildfire impacts on runoff generation. We consider the vegetation and soil disturbances as the primary contributors to post-fire floods. Using an ensemble modeling structure to account for parameter uncertainty and consider model sensitivity, remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI) is assimilated into a land surface model (LSM) to simulate vegetation disturbance, and the maximum land surface saturation LSM parameter is decreased to parameterize the soil disturbance following observed fires. We evaluated the impacts of fire-induced changes to LAI and soil saturation on hydrologic states like runoff and evapotranspiration. Analysis of two events in central California shows that 1) the LAI assimilation has a greater impact on water balance; and 2) the soil scheme captures a range of outcomes, with substantial impacts on surface runoff for some ensemble members, which could affect flood potential.

Timothy M Lahmers↗
NASA NTRS1980

Complexities of nadir-looking radiometric temperature measurements of plant canopies

Effective radiant temperatures (ERTs) of five wheat canopies in different stages of development were measured during morning and noon periods. The observed variability in nadir sensor response was quantitatively described as a function of canopy structure and the vertical temperature profile of canopy components. In many cases, the nadir sensor ERT was a poor measure of vegetation temperature due to effects of soil emissions. Strong vertical temperature profiles of vegetation components were also observed. The theory and measurements presented document that remote measurements of vegetation canopy temperatures cannot be made indiscriminately over large spatial regions without consideration of the underlying physical principles.

Kimes, D. S.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Scene shadow effects on multispectral response

Spectral responses measured from nonuniform balsam fir canopies with varying amounts and locations of shadows are examined in order to study the effects of scene shadows on spectral response. The behavior of canopy reflectance and spectral band transformations, normalized difference (ND), and greenness for a variety of solar zenith angles and background types are analyzed. The use of vegetation indices for monitoring vegetation is studied in terms of shadowing. It is observed that the red and near-IR reflectance factors decrease as the amount of scene shadows increase; the ND increases with increasing scene shadows; changing shadow amounts have little effect on greenness; and the ND from 'pure' pixels increases as the shadows cast by adjacent vegetation canopies increases.

Ranson, K. Jon↗
NASA NTRS2020

SCoBi Multilayer: A Signals of Opportunity Reflectometry Model for Multilayer Dielectric Reflections

A multilayer module is incorporated into the Signals of Opportunity (SoOp) Coherent Bistatic Scattering model (SCoBi) for determining the reflections and propagation of electric fields within a series of multilayer dielectric slabs. This module can be used in conjunction with other SCoBi components to simulate complex, bistatic simulation schemes that include features such as surface roughness, vegetation, antenna effects, and multilayer soil moisture interactions on reflected signals. This paper introduces the physics underlying the multilayer module and utilizes it to perform a simulation study of the response of SoOp-R measurements with respect to subsurface soil moisture parameters. For a frequency range of 100–2400 MHz, it is seen that the SoOp-R response to a single dielectric slab is mostly frequency insensitive; however, the SoOp-R response to multilayer dielectric slabs will vary between frequencies. The relationship between SoOp-R reflectivity and the contributing depth is visualized, and the results show that SoOp-R measurements can display sensitivity to soil moisture below the penetration depth. By simulation of simple soil moisture profiles with different wetting and drying gradients, the dielectric contrast between layers is shown to be the greatest contributing factor to subsurface soil moisture sensitivity. Overall, it is observed that different frequencies can sense different areas of a soil moisture profile, and this behavior can enable subsurface soil moisture data products from SoOp-R observations.

Dylan Boyd↗
NASA NTRS2001

Nitrate concentration effects on NO3-N uptake and reduction, growth, and fruit yield in strawberry

Strawberries (Fragaria xananassa Duch. 'Osogrande') were grown hydroponically with three NO3-N concentrations (3.75, 7.5, or 15.0 mM) to determine effects of varying concentration on NO3-N uptake and reduction rates, and to relate these processes to growth and fruit yield. Plants were grown for 32 weeks, and NO3-N uptake and nitrate reductase (NR) activities in roots and shoots were measured during vegetative and reproductive growth. In general, NO3-N uptake rates increased as NO3-N concentration in the hydroponics system increased. Tissue NO3- concentration also increased as external NO3-N concentration increased, reflecting the differences in uptake rates. There was no effect of external NO3-N concentration on NR activities in leaves or roots during either stage of development. Leaf NR activity averaged approximately 360 nmol NO2 formed/g fresh weight (FW)/h over both developmental stages, while NR activity in roots was much lower, averaging approximately 115 nmol NO2 formed/g FW/h. Vegetative organ FW, dry weight (DW), and total fruit yield were unaffected by NO3-N concentration. These data suggest that the inability of strawberry to increase growth and fruit yield in response to increasing NO3-N concentrations is not due to limitations in NO3-N uptake rates, but rather to limitations in NO3- reduction and/or assimilation in both roots and leaves.

NASA Center KSC↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Limitations to Biomass Estimation for FAV Using NDVI Analysis of Satellite Acquisitions

The distribution and standing biomass (mass per unit area) of Floating Aquatic Vegetation (FAV)provide assessment metrics for productivity of vegetative communities. Remote sensing acquisition data has been used to estimate standing biomass in various ecosystems using vegetation indices, particularly the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), comparing the relative strength of radiation absorbance and reflectance of vegetation in specific wavebands. Obstacles to estimating vegetation biomass using NDVI reported are related to diversity of the vegetation community and high-density saturation. We evaluate the potential for using NDVI derived estimates for FAV biomass in the California Delta by focusing on patches of predominantly single species and compare biomass estimates for specific patches with measurement of total biomass and partitioning within the vegetation canopy. Using Landsat satellite acquisitions, biomass estimates are made for individual pixels and vegetation samples were collected from those same pixels. Focus on patches of predominantly single FAV species resulted in successful estimation of standing biomass beyond that previously reported in other ecosystems. A saturation response for the estimations was observed, however, with a much higher threshold high than previously reported for diverse population aquatic ecosystems. We discuss the likely cause for the saturation phenomenon and potential improvement utilizing altered spectral indices possible with higher spectral resolution from satellites carrying higher waveband multispectral and hyperspectral instruments.

Biomass↗
NASA NTRS2022

Modeling Demographic-Driven Vegetation Dynamics and Ecosystem Biogeochemical Cycling in NASA GISS’s Earth System Model (ModelE-BiomeE v.1.0)

We developed a demographic vegetation model, BiomeE, to improve the modeling of vegetation dynamics and ecosystem biogeochemical cycles in the NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies' ModelE Earth system model. This model includes the processes of plant growth, mortality, reproduction, vegetation structural dynamics, and soil carbon and nitrogen storage and transformations. The model combines the plant physiological processes of ModelE's original vegetation model, Ent, with the plant demographic and ecosystem nitrogen processes that have been represented in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's LM3-PPA. We used nine plant functional types to represent global natural vegetation functional diversity, including trees, shrubs, and grasses, and a new phenology model to simulate vegetation seasonal changes with temperature and precipitation fluctuations. Competition for light and soil resources is individual based, which makes the modeling of transient compositional dynamics and vegetation succession possible. Overall, the BiomeE model simulates, with fidelity comparable to other models, the dynamics of vegetation and soil biogeochemistry, including leaf area index, vegetation structure (e.g., height, tree density, size distribution, and crown organization), and ecosystem carbon and nitrogen storage and fluxes. This model allows ModelE to simulate transient and long-term biogeophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks between the climate system and land ecosystems. Furthermore, BiomeE also allows for the eco-evolutionary modeling of community assemblage in response to past and future climate changes with its individual-based competition and demographic processes.

Biogeochemical cycles↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Oregon Wildfires: Integrating ECOSTRESS to Map & Analyze Vegetation Moisture for Wildfire Modeling

Wildfire season in the western USA is starting earlier and gaining in intensity. The Bootleg Fire in Southern Oregon began on July 6th, 2021, and burned over 1675 km2 before it was fully contained on August 15th, 2021. Evapotranspiration (ET) is one indicator of vegetation moisture and there is interest in using high-resolution ET products from ECOsystem and Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) in future wildfire modeling. In partnership with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and US Forest Service, the team examined ECOSTRESS ET for the two years before the Bootleg Fire and assessed the relationship between ET, topography, and vegetation. Remotely sensed data from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) along with ancillary data from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and Landscape Fire Resource Management Planning Tools (LANDFIRE) were incorporated. The team examined data in relation to soil burn severity from the Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) program. From ET median composites for April 1st – July 5th, 2021 and 2019, the Bootleg Fire area showed a 7 mm/day decrease in ET and a relative 75% decrease in ET between 2019 and 2021. Approximately 6% of the Bootleg Fire area was identified as having a high soil burn severity and these areas were found predominantly in the evergreen forest land cover class and northward facing slopes with a mean ET decrease of 3 mm/day between 2019 and 2021. The team also analyzed ECOSTRESS Water Use Efficiency products as an additional vegetation moisture indicator of pre-fire conditions in the study area. The end products will allow the partners to assess if higher resolution vegetation moisture datasets from ECOSTRESS will improve wildfire modeling for other susceptible areas.

Brenna Hatch↗
NASA NTRS2018

Larch (Larix dahurica Turcz) growth response to climate change in the Siberian permafrost zone

Larch-dominant communities are the most extensive high-latitude forests in Eurasia and are experiencing the strongest impacts from warming temperatures. We analyzed larch (Larix dahurica Turcz) growth index (GI) response to climate change. The studied larch-dominant communities are located within the permafrost zone of Northern Siberia at the northern tree limit (ca. N 67° 38′, E 99° 07′). Methods included dendrochronology, analysis of climate variables, root zone moisture content, and satellitederived gross (GPP) and net (NPP) primary productivity. It was found that larch response to warming included a period of increased annual growth increment (GI) (from the 1970s to ca. 1995) with a follow on GI decline. Increase in GI correlated with summer air temperature, whereas an observed decrease in GI was caused by water stress (vapor pressure deficit and drought increase). Water stress impact on larch growth in permafrost was not observed before the onset of warming (ca. 1970). Water limitation was also indicated by GI dependence on soil moisture stored during the previous year. Water stress was especially pronounced for stands growing on rocky soils with low water-holding capacity. GPP of larch communities showed an increasing trend, whereas NPP stagnated. A similar pattern of GI response to climate warming has also been observed for Larix sibirica Ledeb, Pinus sibirica Du Tour, and Abies sibirica Ledeb in the forests of southern Siberia. Thus, warming in northern Siberia permafrost zone resulted in an initial increase in larch growth from the 1970s to the mid-1990s. After that time, larch growth increment has decreased. Since ca. 1990, water stress at the beginning of the vegetative period became, along with air temperature, a main factor affecting larch growth within the permafrost zone.

Larix dahurica↗
NASA NTRS2019

Land carbon models underestimate the severity and duration of drought’s impact on plant productivity

The ability to accurately predict ecosystem drought response and recovery is necessary to produce reliable forecasts of land carbon uptake and future climate. Using a suite of models from the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we assessed modeled net primary productivity (NPP) response to, and recovery from, drought events against a benchmark derived from tree ring observations between 1948 and 2008 across forested regions of the US and Europe. We find short lag times (0–6 months) between climate anomalies and modeled NPP response. Although models accurately simulate the direction of drought legacy effects (i.e. NPP decreases), projected effects are approximately four times shorter and four times weaker than observations suggest. This discrepancy between observed and simulated vegetation recovery from drought reveals a potential critical model deficiency. Since productivity is a crucial component of the land carbon balance, models that underestimate drought recovery time could overestimate predictions of future land carbon sink strength and, consequently, underestimate forecasts of atmospheric CO2.

carbon cycle↗