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NASA NTRS1989

Time dependent reliability model incorporating continuum damage mechanics for high-temperature ceramics

Presently there are many opportunities for the application of ceramic materials at elevated temperatures. In the near future ceramic materials are expected to supplant high temperature metal alloys in a number of applications. It thus becomes essential to develop a capability to predict the time-dependent response of these materials. The creep rupture phenomenon is discussed, and a time-dependent reliability model is outlined that integrates continuum damage mechanics principles and Weibull analysis. Several features of the model are presented in a qualitative fashion, including predictions of both reliability and hazard rate. In addition, a comparison of the continuum and the microstructural kinetic equations highlights a strong resemblance in the two approaches.

Duffy, Stephen F.↗

NASA NTRS1989

The effects of temperature gradient and growth rate on the morphology and fatigue properties of MAR-M246(Hf)

MAR-M246(Hf) is a nickel based superalloy used in the turbopump blades of the Space Shuttle main engines. The effects are considered of temperature gradient (G) and growth rate (R) on the microstructure and fatigue properties of this superalloy. The primary dendrite arm spacings were found to be inversely proportional to both temperature gradient and growth rate. Carbide and gamma - gamma prime morphology trends were related to G/R ratios. Weibull analysis of fatigue results shows the characteristic life to be larger by a factor of 10 for the low gradient/fast rate pairing of G and R, while the reliability (beta) was lower.

Schmidt, D. D.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Strength distribution in commercial silicon carbide materials

Four-point flexural strength testing has been conducted in order to establish the baseline strength and reliability of four different commercial SiC types, in conjunction with reliable Weibull modulus values. Average strength of the samples ranged from 380 to 482 MPa at room temperature and 307 to 470 MPa at 1370 C. The strength scatter reflects the effect of flaw variability, which must be minimized to improve reliability in sintered SiC.

Dutta, Sunil↗

NASA NTRS1989

Effects of various consolidation techniques on microstructure, strength, and reliability of alpha-SiC

The effects of slurry pressing, HIP, and sinter-HIP on the strength, microstructure, and critical processing flaws in alpha-SiC are examined. Also, the feasibility of glass encapsulation is determined. Baseline strength was improved by about 25 percent by using slurry pressing instead of dry pressing. HIP further improved average strength to as high as 655 MPa. Sinter-HIP did not noticeably improve average strength. Although process-related flaws such as shrinkage cracks and large voids were not seen in HIPed alpha-SiC, surface-related flaws were observed. It is suggested that surface finishing by lapping, polishing, and heat treating might reduce the effect of surface-related flaws, improving the Weibull modulus in HIPed alpha-SiC.

Dutta, Sunil↗

NASA NTRS1989

Strength distribution of reinforcing fibers in a Nicalon fiber/chemically vapor infiltrated silicon carbide matrix composite

The strength distribution of fibers within a two-dimensional laminate ceramic/ceramic composite consisting of an eight harness satin weave of Nicalon continuous fiber within a chemically vapor infiltrated SiC matrix was determined from analysis of the fracture mirrors of the fibers. Comparison of the fiber strengths and the Weibull moduli with those for Nicalon fibers prior to incorporation into composites suggests that possible fiber damage may occur either during the weaving or during another stage of the composite manufacture. Observations also indicate that it is the higher-strength fibers which experience the greatest extent of fiber pullout and thus make a larger contribution to the overall composite toughness than do the weaker fibers.

Eckel, Andrew J.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Improved silicon carbide for advanced heat engines

This is the second annual technical report entitled, Improved Silicon Carbide for Advanced Heat Engines, and includes work performed during the period February 16, 1986 to February 15, 1987. The program is conducted for NASA under contract NAS3-24384. The objective is the development of high strength, high reliability silicon carbide parts with complex shapes suitable for use in advanced heat engines. The fabrication methods used are to be adaptable for mass production of such parts on an economically sound basis. Injection molding is the forming method selected. This objective is to be accomplished in a two-phase program: (1) to achieve a 20 percent improvement in strength and a 100 percent increase in Weibull modulus of the baseline material; and (2) to produce a complex shaped part, a gas turbine rotor, for example, with the improved mechanical properties attained in the first phase. Eight tasks are included in the first phase covering the characterization of the properties of a baseline material, the improvement of those properties and the fabrication of complex shaped parts. Activities during the first contract year concentrated on two of these areas: fabrication and characterization of the baseline material (Task 1) and improvement of material and processes (Task 7). Activities during the second contract year included an MOR bar matrix study to improve mechanical properties (Task 2), materials and process improvements (Task 7), and a Ford-funded task to mold a turbocharger rotor with an improved material (Task 8).

Whalen, Thomas J.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Noninteractive macroscopic reliability model for ceramic matrix composites with orthotropic material symmetry

A macroscopic noninteractive reliability model for ceramic matrix composites is presented. The model is multiaxial and applicable to composites that can be characterized as orthotropic. Tensorial invariant theory is used to create an integrity basis with invariants that correspond to physical mechanisms related to fracture. This integrity basis is then used to construct a failure function per unit volume (or area) of material. It is assumed that the overall strength of the composite is governed by weakest link theory. This leads to a Weibull type model similar in nature to the principle of independent action (PIA) model for isotropic monolithic ceramics. An experimental program to obtain model parameters is briefly discussed. In addition, qualitative features of the model are illustrated by presenting reliability surfaces for various model parameters.

Duffy, Stephen F.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Probabilistic analysis of a materially nonlinear structure

A probabilistic finite element program is used to perform probabilistic analysis of a materially nonlinear structure. The program used in this study is NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structure Under Stress), under development at Southwest Research Institute. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the radial stress of a thick-walled cylinder under internal pressure is computed and compared with the analytical solution. In addition, sensitivity factors showing the relative importance of the input random variables are calculated. Significant plasticity is present in this problem and has a pronounced effect on the probabilistic results. The random input variables are the material yield stress and internal pressure with Weibull and normal distributions, respectively. The results verify the ability of NESSUS to compute the CDF and sensitivity factors of a materially nonlinear structure. In addition, the ability of the Advanced Mean Value (AMV) procedure to assess the probabilistic behavior of structures which exhibit a highly nonlinear response is shown. Thus, the AMV procedure can be applied with confidence to other structures which exhibit nonlinear behavior.

Millwater, H. R.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A case study of the Thunderstorm Research International Project storm of July 11, 1978. I - Analysis of the data base

The data obtained at the time of the Thunderstorm Research International Project storm at the Kennedy Space Center on July 11, 1978 are analyzed in a model-independent manner. The data base included data from three Doppler radars, a lightning detection and ranging system and a network of 25 electric field mills, and rain gages. Electric field measurements were used to analyze the charge moments transferred by lightning flashes, and the data were fitted to Weibull distributions; these were used to estimate statistical parameters of the lightning for both intracloud and cloud-to-ground flashes and to estimate the fraction of the flashes which were below the observation threshold. The displacement and the conduction current densities were calculated from electric field measurements between flashes. These values were used to derive the magnitudes and the locations of dipole and monopole generators by least squares fitting the measured Maxwell current densities to the displacement-dominated equations.

Nisbet, John S.↗

NASA NTRS1989

High-strength silicon carbides by hot isostatic pressing

Silicon carbide has strong potential for heat engine hardware and other high-temperature applications because of its low density, good strength, high oxidation resistance, and good high-temperature creep resistance. Hot isostatic pressing (HIP) was used for producing alpha and beta silicon carbide (SiC) bodies with near-theoretical density, ultrafine grain size, and high strength at processing temperatures of 1900 to 2000 C. The HIPed materials exhibited ultrafine grain size. Furthermore, no phase transformation from beta to alpha was observed in HIPed beta-SiC. Both materials exhibited very high average flexural strength. It was also shown that alpha-SiC bodies without any sintering aids, when HIPed to high final density, can exhibit very high strength. Fracture toughness K (sub C) values were determined to be 3.6 to 4.0 MPa m (sup 1/2) for HIPed alpha-SiC and 3.7 to 4.1 MPa m (sup 1/2) for HIPed beta-SiC. In the HIPed specimens strength-controlling flaws were typically surface related. In spite of improvements in material properties such as strength and fracture toughness by elimination of the larger strength-limiting flaws and by grain size refinement, HIPing has no effect on the Weibull modulus.

Dutta, Sunil↗

NASA NTRS1990

Analysis of stratocumulus cloud fields using LANDSAT imagery: Size distributions and spatial separations

Stratocumulus cloud fields in the FIRE IFO region are analyzed using LANDSAT Thematic Mapper imagery. Structural properties such as cloud cell size distribution, cell horizontal aspect ratio, fractional coverage and fractal dimension are determined. It is found that stratocumulus cloud number densities are represented by a power law. Cell horizontal aspect ratio has a tendency to increase at large cell sizes, and cells are bi-fractal in nature. Using LANDSAT Multispectral Scanner imagery for twelve selected stratocumulus scenes acquired during previous years, similar structural characteristics are obtained. Cloud field spatial organization also is analyzed. Nearest-neighbor spacings are fit with a number of functions, with Weibull and Gamma distributions providing the best fits. Poisson tests show that the spatial separations are not random. Second order statistics are used to examine clustering.

Welch, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Probabilistic structural analysis of a truss typical for space station

A three-bay, space, cantilever truss is probabilistically evaluated using the computer code NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) to identify and quantify the uncertainties and respective sensitivities associated with corresponding uncertainties in the primitive variables (structural, material, and loads parameters) that defines the truss. The distribution of each of these primitive variables is described in terms of one of several available distributions such as the Weibull, exponential, normal, log-normal, etc. The cumulative distribution function (CDF's) for the response functions considered and sensitivities associated with the primitive variables for given response are investigated. These sensitivities help in determining the dominating primitive variables for that response.

Pai, Shantaram S.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Thermal and structural assessments of a ceramic wafer seal in hypersonic engines

The thermal and structural performances of a ceramic wafer seal in a simulated hypersonic engine environment are numerically assessed. The effects of aerodynamic heating, surface contact conductance between the seal and its adjacent surfaces, flow of purge coolant gases, and leakage of hot engine flow path gases on the seal temperature were investigated from the engine inlet back to the entrance region of the combustion chamber. Finite element structural analyses, coupled with Weibull failure analyses, were performed to determine the structural reliability of the wafer seal.

Tong, Mike T.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Structural reliability analysis of laminated CMC components

For laminated ceramic matrix composite (CMC) materials to realize their full potential in aerospace applications, design methods and protocols are a necessity. The time independent failure response of these materials is focussed on and a reliability analysis is presented associated with the initiation of matrix cracking. A public domain computer algorithm is highlighted that was coupled with the laminate analysis of a finite element code and which serves as a design aid to analyze structural components made from laminated CMC materials. Issues relevant to the effect of the size of the component are discussed, and a parameter estimation procedure is presented. The estimation procedure allows three parameters to be calculated from a failure population that has an underlying Weibull distribution.

Duffy, Stephen F.↗

NASA NTRS1991

ETARA PC version 3.3 user's guide: Reliability, availability, maintainability simulation model

A user's manual describing an interactive, menu-driven, personal computer based Monte Carlo reliability, availability, and maintainability simulation program called event time availability reliability (ETARA) is discussed. Given a reliability block diagram representation of a system, ETARA simulates the behavior of the system over a specified period of time using Monte Carlo methods to generate block failure and repair intervals as a function of exponential and/or Weibull distributions. Availability parameters such as equivalent availability, state availability (percentage of time as a particular output state capability), continuous state duration and number of state occurrences can be calculated. Initial spares allotment and spares replenishment on a resupply cycle can be simulated. The number of block failures are tabulated both individually and by block type, as well as total downtime, repair time, and time waiting for spares. Also, maintenance man-hours per year and system reliability, with or without repair, at or above a particular output capability can be calculated over a cumulative period of time or at specific points in time.

Hoffman, David J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Mechanical behavior and failure phenomenon of an in situ-toughened silicon nitride

The Weibull modulus, fracture toughness and crack growth resistance of an in-situ toughened, silicon nitride material used to manufacture a turbine combustor were determined from room temperature to 1371 C. The material exhibited an elongated grain structure that resulted in improved fracture toughness, nonlinear crack growth resistance, and good elevated temperature strength. However, low temperature strength was limited by grains of excessive length (30 to 100 microns). These excessively long grains were surrounded by regions rich in sintering additives.

Salem, Jonathan A.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Evaluation and ranking of candidate ceramic wafer engine seal materials

Modern engineered ceramics offer high temperature capabilities not found in even the best superalloy metals. The high temperature properties of several selected ceramics including aluminum oxide, silicon carbide, and silicon nitride are reviewed as they apply to hypersonic engine seal design. A ranking procedure is employed to objectively differentiate among four different monolithic ceramic materials considered, including: a cold-pressed and sintered aluminum oxide; a sintered alpha-phase silicon carbide; a hot-isostatically pressed silicon nitride; and a cold-pressed and sintered silicon nitride. This procedure is used to narrow the wide range of potential ceramics considered to an acceptable number for future detailed and costly analyses and tests. The materials are numerically scored according to their high temperature flexural strength; high temperature thermal conductivity; resistance to crack growth; resistance to high heating rates; fracture toughness; Weibull modulus; and finally according to their resistance to leakage flow, where materials having coefficients of thermal expansion closely matching the engine panel material resist leakage flow best. The cold-pressed and sintered material (Kyocera SN-251) ranked the highest in the overall ranking especially when implemented in engine panels made of low expansion rate materials being considered for the engine, including Incoloy and titanium alloys.

Steinetz, Bruce M.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Development of a funding, cost, and spending model for satellite projects

The need for a predictive budget/funging model is obvious. The current models used by the Resource Analysis Office (RAO) are used to predict the total costs of satellite projects. An effort to extend the modeling capabilities from total budget analysis to total budget and budget outlays over time analysis was conducted. A statistical based and data driven methodology was used to derive and develop the model. Th budget data for the last 18 GSFC-sponsored satellite projects were analyzed and used to build a funding model which would describe the historical spending patterns. This raw data consisted of dollars spent in that specific year and their 1989 dollar equivalent. This data was converted to the standard format used by the RAO group and placed in a database. A simple statistical analysis was performed to calculate the gross statistics associated with project length and project cost ant the conditional statistics on project length and project cost. The modeling approach used is derived form the theory of embedded statistics which states that properly analyzed data will produce the underlying generating function. The process of funding large scale projects over extended periods of time is described by Life Cycle Cost Models (LCCM). The data was analyzed to find a model in the generic form of a LCCM. The model developed is based on a Weibull function whose parameters are found by both nonlinear optimization and nonlinear regression. In order to use this model it is necessary to transform the problem from a dollar/time space to a percentage of total budget/time space. This transformation is equivalent to moving to a probability space. By using the basic rules of probability, the validity of both the optimization and the regression steps are insured. This statistically significant model is then integrated and inverted. The resulting output represents a project schedule which relates the amount of money spent to the percentage of project completion.

Johnson, Jesse P.↗