Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “wind speed forecasting”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2004

Nowcasting Thunderstorm Anvil Clouds Over KSC/CCAFS

Electrified thunderstorm anvil clouds extend the threat of natural and triggered lightning to space launch and landing operations far beyond the immediate vicinity of thunderstorm cells. The deep convective updrafts of thunderstorms transport large amounts of water vapor, super-cooled water droplets and ice crystals into the upper troposphere, forming anvil clouds, which are then carried downstream by the prevailing winds in the anvil formation layer. Electrified anvil clouds have been observed over the space launch and landing facilities of Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), emanating from thunderstorm activity more than 200 km distant. Space launch commit criteria and flight rules require launch and landing vehicles to avoid penetration of the non-transparent portion of anvil clouds. The life cycles of 167 anvil clouds over the Florida peninsula and its coastal waters were documented using GOES-8 visible imagery on 50 anvil case days during the months of May through July 2001. Anvil clouds were found to propagate at the speed and direction of upper-tropospheric winds in the layer from 300-to-l50 mb, approximately 9.4 km to 14 km, with an effective average transport lifetime of 2 hours and a standard deviation of approximately 30 minutes. The effective lifetime refers to the time required for the nontransparent leading edge of an anvil cloud to reach its maximum extent before beginning to dissipate. The propagation and lifetime information was incorporated into the design, construction and implementation of an objective short-range anvil forecast tool based on upper-air observations, for use on the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System within the Range Weather Operations facility of the 45th Weather Squadron at CCAFS and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group at Johnson Space Center.

Short, David A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

An assessment of tropical cyclones in North American $\mathrm{CORDEX}$ $\mathrm{WRF}$ simulations

This work presents an assessment of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the 25 km and 50 km resolution reanalysis-forced and baseline and future (RCP8.5) global climate model (GCM) forced simulations produced for the North American branch of the international Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. A set of complementary 12 km resolution simulations produced as a part of a different project is also included in this assessment. Before examining the projections from the GCM-driven simulations, the ability of the simulations to minimally produce a realistic spatial distribution of historical TC occurrence was assessed in simulations forced by reanalysis and the three different GCMs used herein. Then, projections for occurrence, TC related mean precipitation and precipitation intensity, storm duration, the intensity measured by minimum pressure and maximum wind speed, storm size, and translation speed were examined. Several of these characteristics show little to no change in the future in trend or in distribution across the ensemble. However, many simulations suggest a westward shift or increase in TC occurrence over the East Pacific basin and a decrease in occurrence over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Increases (decreases) in total storm-related precipitation are projected where TC occurrence increases (decreases). TC precipitation intensity is found to increase in all simulations over the East Pacific, but projections are mixed over the North Atlantic. Finally, the ensemble projects a distribution shift towards more intense TC over the East Pacific, and a shift toward faster translation speeds over the North Atlantic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1985

Developement of an Optimum Interpolation Analysis Method for the CYBER 205

A state-of-the-art technique to assimilate the diverse observational database obtained during FGGE, and thus create initial conditions for numerical forecasts is described. The GLA optimum interpolation (OI) analysis method analyzes pressure, winds, and temperature at sea level, mixing ratio at six mandatory pressure levels up to 300 mb, and heights and winds at twelve levels up to 50 mb. Conversion to the CYBER 205 required a major re-write of the Amdahl OI code to take advantage of the CYBER vector processing capabilities. Structured programming methods were used to write the programs and this has resulted in a modular, understandable code. Among the contributors to the increased speed of the CYBER code are a vectorized covariance-calculation routine, an extremely fast matrix equation solver, and an innovative data search and sort technique.

Nestler, M. S.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Interannual Sea Level Variations in the Tropical Indian Ocean from Geosat and Shallow Water Simulations

Sea level variations of the Indian Ocean north of 20 deg S are analyzed from Geosat satellite altimeter data over April 1985-September 1989. These variations are compared and interpreted with numerical simulations derived from a reduced gravity model forced by FSU observed winds over the same period. After decomposition into complex empirical orthogonal functions, the low-frequency anomalies are described by the first two modes for observations as well as for simulations. The sums of the two modes contain 34% and 40% of the observed and simulated variances, respectively. Averaged over the basin, the observed and simulated sea level changes are correlated by 0.92 over 1985-1988. The strongest change happens during the El Ninio 1986-1987: between winter 1986 and summer 1987 the basin-averaged sea level rises by approx. 1 cm. These low-frequency variations can partly be explained by changes in the Sverdrup circulation. The southern tropical Indian Ocean between 1O deg and 20 deg S is the domain where those changes are strongest: the averaged sea level rises by approx. 4.5 cm between winter 1986 and winter 1987. There, the signal propagates southwestward across the basin at a speed similar to free Rossby waves. Sensitivity of observed anomalies is examined over 1987-1988, with different orbit ephemeris, tropospheric corrections, and error reduction processes. The uncertainty of the basin-averaged sea level estimates is mostly due to the way the orbit error is reduced and reaches approx. 1 cm. Nonetheless, spatial correlation is good between the various observations and better than between observations and simulations. Sensitivity of simulated anomalies to the wind uncertainty, examined with Former Soviet Union (FSU) and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) forcings over 1985-1988, shows that the variance of the simulations driven by ECMWF is 52% smaller, as FSU winds are stronger than ECMWF. Results show that the wind strength also affects the dynamic response of the ocean: anomalies propagate westward across the basin more than twice as fast with FSU than with ECMWF. It is found that the discrepancy is larger between ECMWF and FSU simulations than between observations and FSU simulations.

Perigaud, Claire↗
DOE OSTI2024

Monsoonal MCS Initiation, Rainfall, and Diurnal Gravity Waves over the Bay of Bengal: Observation and a Linear Model

Abstract Previous observational studies have indicated that mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) contribute the majority of precipitation over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during the summer monsoon season, yet their initiation and propagation remain incompletely understood. To fill this knowledge gap, we conducted a comprehensive study using a combination of 20-yr satellite observations, MCS tracking, reanalysis data, and a theoretical linear model. Satellite observations reveal clear diurnal propagation signals of MCS initiation frequency and rainfall from the west coast of the BoB toward the central BoB, with the MCS rainfall propagating slightly slower than the MCS initiation frequency. Global reanalysis data indicate a strong association between the offshore-propagating MCS initiation frequency/rainfall and diurnal low-level wind perturbations, implying the potential role of gravity waves. To verify the hypothesis, we developed a 2D linear model that can be driven by realistic meteorological fields from reanalysis. The linear model realistically reproduces the characteristics of offshore-propagating diurnal wind perturbations. The wind perturbations, as well as the offshore propagation signals of MCS initiation frequency and rainfall, are associated with diurnal gravity waves emitted from the coastal regions, which in turn are caused by the diurnal land–sea thermal contrast. The ambient wind speed and vertical wind shear play crucial roles in modulating the timing, propagation, and amplitude of diurnal gravity waves. Using the linear model and satellite observations, we further show that the stronger monsoonal flows lead to faster offshore propagation of diurnal gravity waves, which subsequently control the offshore propagation signals of MCS initiation and rainfall. Significance Statement Rainfall over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is primarily contributed by large and organized rainfall systems in the summer monsoon season. During this season, these systems are commonly observed over the east coast of India around midnight, the western BoB in the morning, and the central BoB in the afternoon. This eastward rainfall propagation is confirmed by observations, reanalysis data, and a theoretical model to have a strong association with atmospheric diurnal gravity waves. These waves are caused by land–sea thermal contrast and can trigger rainfall systems over the offshore regions. We also found that the diurnal gravity waves, as well as their triggered rainfall systems, can be greatly modulated by the large-scale monsoonal flows. All the above findings improve our understanding of diurnal rainfall cycle over the BoB and may contribute to the future improvement of rainfall forecast over the region.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
NASA NTRS1991

Phase speed spectra of transient eddy fluxes and critical layer absorption

Tropospheric zonal mean eddy fluxes of heat and momentum, and the divergence of the Eliassen-Palm flux, are decomposed into contributions from different zonal phase speeds. Data analyzed are the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts operational global analyses covering 1980-1987. Eastward moving medium-scale waves (zonal waves 4-7) dominate the spectra of lower tropospheric heat fluxes in both hemispheres and all seasons. Upper tropospheric wave flux spectra are similar to the low level spectra in midlatitudes, but shift to slower zonal phase speeds as low latitudes are approached. The cause of this shift is the selective absorption of faster moving components in midlatitudes as the waves propagate meridionally. Latitude-phase speed distributions of eddy fluxes are constructed and compared to the zonal mean wind structure. These results demonstrate that upper tropospheric eddies break and decelerate the zonal mean flow approximately 10-20 deg in latitude away from their critical line (where phase speed equals zonal wind speed). Comparisons are also made with results from the middle stratosphere.

Randel, William J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Occurrence of Low-Level Jets over the Eastern U.S. Coastal Zone at Heights Relevant to Wind Energy

Two years of high-resolution simulations conducted with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are used to characterize the frequency, intensity and height of low-level jets (LLJ) over the U.S. Atlantic coastal zone. Meteorological conditions and the occurrence and characteristics of LLJs are described for (i) the centroids of thirteen of the sixteen active offshore wind energy lease areas off the U.S. east coast and (ii) along two transects extending east from the U.S. coastline across the northern lease areas (LA). Flow close to the nominal hub-height of wind turbines is predominantly northwesterly and southwesterly and exhibits pronounced seasonality, with highest wind speeds in November, and lowest wind speeds in June. LLJs diagnosed using vertical profiles of modeled wind speeds from approximately 20 to 530 m above sea level exhibit highest frequency in LA south of Massachusetts, where LLJs are identified in up to 12% of hours in June. LLJs are considerably less frequent further south along the U.S. east coast and outside of the summer season. LLJs frequently occur at heights that intersect the wind turbine rotor plane, and at wind speeds within typical wind turbine operating ranges. LLJs are most frequent, intense and have lowest core heights under strong horizontal temperature gradients and lower planetary boundary layer heights.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2007

Uncertainty Analysis of Historical Hurricane Data

An analysis of variance (ANOVA) study was conducted for historical hurricane data dating back to 1851 that was obtained from the U. S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The data set was chosen because it is a large, publicly available collection of information, exhibiting great variability which has made the forecasting of future states, from current and previous states, difficult. The availability of substantial, high-fidelity validation data, however, made for an excellent uncertainty assessment study. Several factors (independent variables) were identified from the data set, which could potentially influence the track and intensity of the storms. The values of these factors, along with the values of responses of interest (dependent variables) were extracted from the data base, and provided to a commercial software package for processing via the ANOVA technique. The primary goal of the study was to document the ANOVA modeling uncertainty and predictive errors in making predictions about hurricane location and intensity 24 to 120 hours beyond known conditions, as reported by the data set. A secondary goal was to expose the ANOVA technique to a broader community within NASA. The independent factors considered to have an influence on the hurricane track included the current and starting longitudes and latitudes (measured in degrees), and current and starting maximum sustained wind speeds (measured in knots), and the storm starting date, its current duration from its first appearance, and the current year fraction of each reading, all measured in years. The year fraction and starting date were included in order to attempt to account for long duration cyclic behaviors, such as seasonal weather patterns, and years in which the sea or atmosphere were unusually warm or cold. The effect of short duration weather patterns and ocean conditions could not be examined with the current data set. The responses analyzed were the storm latitude, longitude and intensity, as recorded in the data set, 24 or 120 hours beyond the current state. Several ANOVA modeling schemes were examined. Two forms of validation were used: 1) comparison with official hurricane prediction performance metrics and 2) cases studies conducted on hurricanes from the 2005 season, which were not included within the model construction and ANOVA assessment. In general, the ANOVA technique did not perform as well as the established official prediction performance metrics published by NOAA; still, the technique did remarkably well in this demonstration with a difficult data set and could probably be made to perform better with more knowledge of hurricane development and dynamics applied to the problem. The technique provides a repeatable prediction process that eliminates the need for judgment in the forecast.

Green, Lawrence L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Barge Site - Avian Radar System / Derived Data

This is a combined data set of 67,410 bird/bat tracks from an avian radar system deployed on a research barge (MERLIN True3D, DeTect, Panama City, Florida, USA) and concurrent wind measurements from two scanning lidars (WindCube v2.1, Vaisala, Vantaa, Finland, and Halo XR+, Halo Photonics, Lannion, France). The research barge (16.5 m x 61 m) was deployed as part of the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP-3) off the northeast coast of the United States south of Massachusetts (40.9 deg N, 70.79 deg W). This data set comprises 5 weeks of data between August 27th 2024 and September 27th 2024. Radar data were provided by DeTect and Lidar data were accessed through the Wind Data Hub (wfip3/barg.WINDPROF.z01.a0) The data have been filtered and sorted into two size groups ("big" and "small") based on a clustering approach. See Snortland, A., Clerc, J., Hein, C., & Cotter, E. (2025). Wind as Driver of Bird and Bat Abundance, Flight Direction, Altitude, and Speed on the North Atlantic Shelf. arXiv preprint arXiv:2511.14983 for complete details. Data are provided in 2 files: "Birds" and "Birds_hourly" Birds: This file contains information about each of the 67,410 flying animal tracks detected by the radar during the data collection period, including parameters measured by the radar and wind information interpolated from the lidar wind measurements. We note that the raw radar dataset contained 301,618 tracks; tracks in this processed dataset were filtered based on the requirements described in Snortland et al. (2025). Birds_hourly: This file contains timeseries of the number of tracks detected per hour over the course of the data collection period, including wind conditions and sun position for each hour. These data were used for generalized additive modeling in Snortland et al. (2025).

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1994

An experiment in hurricane track prediction using parallel computing methods

The barotropic model is used to explore the advantages of parallel processing in deterministic forecasting. We apply this model to the track forecasting of hurricane Elena (1985). In this particular application, solutions to systems of elliptic equations are the essence of the computational mechanics. One set of equations is associated with the decomposition of the wind into irrotational and nondivergent components - this determines the initial nondivergent state. Another set is associated with recovery of the streamfunction from the forecasted vorticity. We demonstrate that direct parallel methods based on accelerated block cyclic reduction (BCR) significantly reduce the computational time required to solve the elliptic equations germane to this decomposition and forecast problem. A 72-h track prediction was made using incremental time steps of 16 min on a network of 3000 grid points nominally separated by 100 km. The prediction took 30 sec on the 8-processor Alliant FX/8 computer. This was a speed-up of 3.7 when compared to the one-processor version. The 72-h prediction of Elena's track was made as the storm moved toward Florida's west coast. Approximately 200 km west of Tampa Bay, Elena executed a dramatic recurvature that ultimately changed its course toward the northwest. Although the barotropic track forecast was unable to capture the hurricane's tight cycloidal looping maneuver, the subsequent northwesterly movement was accurately forecasted as was the location and timing of landfall near Mobile Bay.

Song, Chang G.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Displaying Composite and Archived Soundings in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System

In a previous task, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed spatial and temporal climatologies of lightning occurrence based on eight atmospheric flow regimes. The AMU created climatological, or composite, soundings of wind speed and direction, temperature, and dew point temperature at four rawinsonde observation stations at Jacksonville, Tampa, Miami, and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, for each of the eight flow regimes. The composite soundings were delivered to the National Weather Service (NWS) Melbourne (MLB) office for display using the National version of the Skew-T Hodograph analysis and Research Program (NSHARP) software program. The NWS MLB requested the AMU make the composite soundings available for display in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS), so they could be overlaid on current observed soundings. This will allow the forecasters to compare the current state of the atmosphere with climatology. This presentation describes how the AMU converted the composite soundings from NSHARP Archive format to Network Common Data Form (NetCDF) format, so that the soundings could be displayed in AWl PS. The NetCDF is a set of data formats, programming interfaces, and software libraries used to read and write scientific data files. In AWIPS, each meteorological data type, such as soundings or surface observations, has a unique NetCDF format. Each format is described by a NetCDF template file. Although NetCDF files are in binary format, they can be converted to a text format called network Common data form Description Language (CDL). A software utility called ncgen is used to create a NetCDF file from a CDL file, while the ncdump utility is used to create a CDL file from a NetCDF file. An AWIPS receives soundings in Binary Universal Form for the Representation of Meteorological data (BUFR) format (http://dss.ucar.edu/docs/formats/bufr/), and then decodes them into NetCDF format. Only two sounding files are generated in AWIPS per day. One file contains all of the soundings received worldwide between 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC, and the other includes all soundings between 1200 UTC and 0000 UTC. In order to add the composite soundings into AWIPS, a procedure was created to configure, or localize, AWIPS. This involved modifying and creating several configuration text files. A unique fourcharacter site identifier was created for each of the 32 soundings so each could be viewed separately. The first three characters were based on the site identifier of the observed sounding, while the last character was based on the flow regime. While researching the localization process for soundings, the AMU discovered a method of archiving soundings so old soundings would not get purged automatically by AWl PS. This method could provide an alternative way of localizing AWl PS for composite soundings. In addition, this would allow forecasters to use archived soundings in AWIPS for case studies. A test sounding file in NetCDF format was written in order to verify the correct format for soundings in AWIPS. After the file was viewed successfully in AWIPS, the AMU wrote a software program in the Tool Command Language/Tool Kit (Tcl/Tk) language to convert the 32 composite soundings from NSHARP Archive to CDL format. The ncgen utility was then used to convert the CDL file to a NetCDF file. The NetCDF file could then be read and displayed in AWIPS.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating mesoscale model predictions of diurnal speedup events in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area of California

Mesoscale model predictions of wind, turbulence, and wind energy capacity factors are evaluated in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area of California (APWRA), where the diurnal regional sea breeze and associated terrain-driven speedup flows drive wind energy production during the summer months. Results from the Weather Research and Forecasting model version 4.4 using a novel three-dimensional planetary boundary layer (3D PBL) scheme, which treats both vertical and horizontal turbulent mixing, are compared to those using a well-established one-dimensional (1D) scheme that treats only vertical turbulent mixing. Each configuration is evaluated over a nearly 3-month-long period during the Hill Flow Study, and due to the recurring nature of the observed speedup flows, diurnal composite averaging is used to capture robust trends in model performance. Both model configurations showed similar overall skill. The general timing and direction of the speedup flows is captured, but their magnitude is overestimated within a typical wind turbine rotor layer. Both also fail to capture a persistent observed near-surface jet-like flow, likely due to the limited grid resolution that is typical of mesoscale models. However, the 3D PBL configuration shows several minor improvements over the 1D PBL configuration, including improved wind speed and turbulence kinetic energy profiles during the accelerating phase of the speedup events, as well as reduced positive wind speed bias at surface stations across the APWRA region. Using a mesoscale wind farm parameterization, modeled capacity factors are also compared to monthly data reported to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) during the study period. Although the monthly trend in the data is captured, both model configurations overestimate capacity factors by roughly 7 %–11 %. Through model evaluation, this study provides confidence in the 3D PBL scheme for wind energy applications in complex terrain and provides guidance for future testing.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1995

A mesoscale modeling study of the atmospheric circulation of high southern latitudes

The meteorology of high southern latitudes during winter is simulated using a cloud-free version of The Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model version 4 (MM4) with a 100-km horizontal resolution. Comparisons between idealized simulations of Antarctic with MM4 and with the mesoscale model of Parish and Waight reveal that both models produce similarly realistic velocity fields in the boundary layer. The latter model tends to produce slightly faster drainage winds over East Antarctica. The intensity of the katabatic winds produced by MM4 is sensitive to parameterizations of boundary layer fluxes. Two simulations performed with MM4 using analyses from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for June 1988 as initial and boundary conditions. A simulation of the period from 000 UTC 2 June to 0000 UTC 8 June produces realistic synoptic phenomena including ridge development over East Antarctica, frontogenesis over the Amundsen Sea, and a katabatic surge over the Ross Ice Shelf. The simulated time-averaged fields for June 1988, particularly that of a 500-hPa height, are in good agreement with time-averaged fields analyzed by the ECMWF. The results of the simulations provide detailed features of the Antarctic winter boundary layer along the steeply sloping terrain. Highest boundary layer wind speeds averaged over the month-long simulation are approximately 20 m/s. The lack of latent heating in the simulations apparently results in some bias in the results. In particular, the cloud-free version of MM4 underpredicts the intensity of lows in the sea level pressure field.

Hines, K. M.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identification of Climatological Representative Days in the Mid-Atlantic for High-Fidelity Offshore Wind Energy Modeling

The goal of reaching 30 GW of offshore wind energy by 2030 becomes more realistic with the continued approval of offshore wind energy areas by the Biden Administration. In the Mid-Atlantic, where wind energy projects are in the most advanced stages of development, there is increased research focus on the eventual interaction of these wind farms. These interactions, in the form of wakes and cluster wakes, or wakes from multiple wind farms, could have detrimental effects on power production and forecastability for downwind wind farms (Pryor et al. 2022, Golbazi et al. 2022, Rosencrans et al. 2023). To help alleviate these issues, numerical simulations in the form of numerical weather prediction (NWP) and large eddy simulations (LES) can provide insight into when cluster wake situations may occur, but running such simulations can be expensive and difficult to run for multiple years. In this study, we leverage and build upon existing techniques in the literature (Fischereit et al. 2022) to identify climatologically representative days for wind energy areas in the Mid-Atlantic where conditions would promote cluster wake situations. We select meteorological variables (wind speed, wind direction, atmospheric stability, boundary-layer height, TKE) critical to understanding wind energy production and wake propagation. We then consider two different NWP datasets of varying spatial and temporal resolution: ERA5 provides data at hourly intervals from 1940 to present at 0.25 deg (31 km) spatial resolution (Hersbach et al. 2020), and the NOW-23 dataset provides data at 5-minute resolution for 21 years at 2-km spatial resolution (Bodini et al. 2020). Our first step is to compare these two datasets for an overlapping 21-year time period. Initial results show that the required number of days to represent the long-term climate increases with each additional variable considered. In their study of the German Bight, Fischereit et al. (2022) found that they could represent the long-term wind and wave climate in a "near-perfect" way with -180 days, by reaching a Perkins Skill Score (PSS) of 0.9; our investigation of the mid-Atlantic wind resource region with ERA5 and NOW-23 data suggests that we will need -100 days to reach a PSS of 0.9. As we expand our parameter space to include multiple variables, the number of required days will likely grow. These results will ultimately be used to select case studies to best represent cluster wake conditions that apply to this region for the lifetime of likely wind farms in this mid-Atlantic region.

clusterwakes↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of the Fitch Wind-Farm Wake Parameterization with Large-Eddy Simulations of Wakes Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Abstract Wind-farm parameterizations in weather models can be used to predict both the power output and farm effects on the flow; however, their correctness has not been thoroughly assessed. We evaluate the wind-farm parameterization of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with large-eddy simulations (LES) of the wake performed with the same model. We study the impact on the velocity and turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) of inflow velocity, roughness, resolution, number of turbines (one or two), and inversion height and strength. We compare the mesoscale with the LES by spatially averaging the LES within areas correspondent to the mesoscale horizontal spacing: one covering the turbine area and two downwind. We find an excellent agreement of the velocity within the turbine area between the two types of simulations. However, within the same area, we find the largest TKE discrepancies because in mesoscale simulations, the turbine-added TKE has to be highest at the turbine position to be advected downwind. Within the downwind areas, differences between velocities increase as the wake recovers faster in the LES, whereas for the TKE both types of simulations show similar levels. From the various configurations, the impact of inversion height and strength is small for these heights and inversion levels. The highest impact for the one-turbine simulations appears under the low-speed case due to the higher thrust, whereas the impact of resolution is low for the large-eddy simulations but high for the mesoscale simulations. Our findings demonstrate that higher-fidelity simulations are needed to validate wind-farm parameterizations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2000

Hurricane Wind Field Measurements with Scanning Airborne Doppler Lidar During CAMEX-3

During the 1998 Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3), the first hurricane wind field measurements with Doppler lidar were achieved. Wind fields were mapped within the eye, along the eyewall, in the central dense overcast, and in the marine boundary layer encompassing the inflow region. Spatial coverage was determined primarily by cloud distribution and opacity. Within optically-thin cirrus slant range of 20- 25 km was achieved, whereas no propagation was obtained during penetration of dense cloud. Measurements were obtained with the Multi-center Airborne Coherent Atmospheric Wind Sensor (MACAWS) on the NASA DC-8 research aircraft. MACAWS was developed and operated cooperatively by the atmospheric lidar remote sensing groups of NOAA Environmental Technology Laboratory, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, and Jet Propulsion Laboratory. A pseudo-dual Doppler technique ("co-planar scanning") is used to map the horizontal component of the wind at several vertical levels. Pulses from the laser are directed out the left side of the aircraft in the desired directions using computer-controlled rotating prisms. Upon exiting the aircraft, the beam is completely eyesafe. Aircraft attitude and speed are taken into account during real-time signal processing, resulting in determination of the ground-relative wind to an accuracy of about 1 m/s magnitude and about 10 deg direction. Beam pointing angle errors are about 0.1 deg, equivalent to about 17 m at 10 km. Horizontal resolution is about 1 km (along-track) for typical signal processor and scanner settings; vertical resolution varies with range. Results from CAMEX-3 suggest that scanning Doppler wind lidar can complement airborne Doppler radar by providing wind field measurements in regions that are devoid of hydrometeors. At present MACAWS observations are being assimilated into experimental forecast models and satellite Doppler wind lidar simulations to evaluate the relative impact.

Rothermel, Jeffry↗
DOE OSTI2021

Coupling Mesoscale Budget Components to Large-Eddy Simulations for Wind-Energy Applications

To simulate the airflow through a wind farm across a wide range of atmospheric conditions, microscale models (e.g., large-eddy simulation, LES, models) have to be coupled with mesoscale models, because microscale models lack the atmospheric physical processes to represent time-varying local forcing. Here we couple mesoscale model outputs to a LES solver by applying mesoscale momentum- and temperature-budget components from the Weather Research and Forecasting model to the governing equations of the Simulator fOr Wind Farm Applications model. We test whether averaging the budget components affects the LES results with regard to quantities of interest to wind energy. Our study focuses on flat terrain during a quiescent diurnal cycle. The simulation results are compared with observations from a 200-m tall meteorological tower and a wind-profiling radar, by analyzing time series, profiles, rotor-averaged quantities, and spectra. However, while results show that averaging reduces the spatio-temporal variability of the mesoscale momentum-budget components, when coupled with the LES model, the mesoscale bias (in comparison with observations of wind speed and direction, and potential temperature) is not reduced. In contrast, the LES technique can correct for shear and veer. In both cases, however, averaging the budget components shows no significant impact on the mean flow quantities in the microscale and is not necessary when coupling mesocale budget components to the LES model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2012

An Analysis of Operational Total Lightning Data During Long-Track Tornadoes

The 27 April 2011 tornado outbreak brought three distinct waves of tornadic thunderstorms to portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia, striking the Tennessee Valley of north Alabama and southern Tennessee particularly hard. A total of 42 tornado paths were surveyed across the fourteen county area covered by the National Weather Service (NWS) forecast office in Huntsville, Alabama. Ten of these tornadoes were on the ground for at least 20 miles, two had total path lengths over 130 miles, and six tornadoes were classified as violent (EF-4 or EF-5 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale). Many of these tornadoes occurred within the domain of the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA), a ground-based total lightning detection network owned and operated by the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. Since 2003, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center has supplied data from NALMA in real time to NWS forecast offices in Huntsville, Knoxville/Tri-Cities, Birmingham, and Nashville. Previous research has documented the utility of total lightning information in predicting tornadogenesis, particularly when combined with other remote sensing tools. Basic warning decision-making during events such as 27 April is not the most difficult part of the process; instead, the focus of warning meteorologists shifts to looking for changes in intensity or possible particularly dangerous situations, since doppler radar velocity data often cannot distinguish between weak and strong tornadoes. To that end, this research attempts to determine if any correlation exists between flash densities of the longest-tracked tornadoes over time, and the surveyed wind speeds of the tornadoes. The long-track EF-5 tornado which struck the Hackleburg, Phil Campbell, and Tanner communities in north Alabama was the primary focus of this research due to its intensity and extended life cycle. However, not all tornadoes were available for total lightning analysis due to widespread power outages which negatively affected the detection efficiency and operation of the NALMA. Therefore, additional storms from 2008-2010 with tracks of at least 20 miles were analyzed for comparison purposes.

Carcione, Brian C.↗