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DOE OSTI2026

Safe Deep Reinforcement Learning for Active Distribution System Model Predictive Control with EVs and DERs

The temporal and spatial mismatch between PV generation and electric vehicle (EV) charging and discharging may cause voltage violations in active distribution networks. Despite the widespread use of deep reinforcement learning (DRL) in power system optimization and control, it lacks guarantees on constraint satisfaction during both training and deployment. This paper proposes a Lagrangian-based safe DRL approach for model predictive control (MPC) of active distribution systems with large-scale integration of PVs, EVs, and energy storage systems (ESSs). A Transformer-LSTM time-series model is proposed to forecast EV charging demand, which is then formulated as a constraint to ensure charging requirements are met. Using this prediction, a Lagrangian-based safe soft actor-critic (SAC) framework is developed for real-time control in a three-phase unbalanced distribution system, enforcing voltage safety constraints while optimizing the cumulative net reward. By integrating the forecasting model with multi-period constraints, the proposed framework jointly coordinates PV systems, EV charging and discharging, and ESS scheduling within the MPC horizon. Numerical experiments on a modified IEEE 123-bus system with real-world data show that, under a high PV penetration scenario, the proposed method increases the net reward by 30.74% and reduces average voltage violations from 0.0011 p.u. to 0.0002 p.u. compared with standard SAC. Compared with the optimal power flow (OPF) approach, it achieves similar voltage security while yielding lower line losses. It also maintains real-time control capability, reducing operation latency to 53.21 ms per 15-minute control interval. The proposed method remains effective under varying PV/EV penetrations and load conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Self-Supervised and Interpretable Anomaly Detection Using Network Transformers

Machine learning and deep neural networks (DNNs) have been proposed as a tool to identify anomalies in computer network communications. However, due the obfuscated nature of off-the-shelf machine learning models, their output often does not provide enough information to isolate the source of the anomaly to take corrective measures. In this article, we introduce the network transformer (NeT), a DNN model for anomaly detection that incorporates the graph structure of the communication network in order to improve interpretability. Further, the presented approach has the following advantages: first, enhanced interpretability by incorporating the graph structure of computer networks; second, provides a hierarchical set of features that enables analysis at different levels of granularity; second, self-supervised training that does not require labeled data. The NeT model was evaluated on a set of anomalous scenarios executed in a real industrial control system. The presented approach successfully identified the anomalies, the devices affected, and the specific connections causing the anomalies, providing a data-driven hierarchical approach to analyze the behavior of a cyber network.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mycorrhizal associations of temperate forest seedlings mediate rhizodeposition, but not soil carbon storage, under elevated nitrogen availability

Abstract Tree‐mycorrhizal associations are associated with patterns in nitrogen (N) availability and soil organic matter storage; however, we still lack a mechanistic understanding of what tree and fungal traits drive these patterns and how they will respond to global changes in soil N availability. To address this knowledge gap, we investigated how arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM)‐ and ectomycorrhizal (EcM)‐associated seedlings alter rhizodeposition in response to increased seedling inorganic N acquisition. We grew four species each of EcM and AM seedlings from forests of the eastern United States in a continuously 13 C‐labeled atmosphere within an environmentally controlled chamber and subjected to three levels of 15 N‐labeled fertilizer. We traced seedling 15 N uptake from, and 13 C‐labeled inputs (net rhizodeposition) into, root‐excluded or ‐included soil over a 5‐month growing season. N uptake by seedlings was positively related to rhizodeposition for EcM‐ but not AM‐associated seedlings in root‐included soils. Despite this contrast in rhizodeposition, there was no difference in soil C storage between mycorrhizal types over the course of the experiment. Instead root‐inclusive soils lost C, while root‐exclusive soils gained C. Our findings suggest that mycorrhizal associations mediate tree belowground C investment in response to inorganic N availability, but these differences do not affect C storage. Continued soil warming and N deposition under global change will increase soil inorganic N availability and our seedling results indicate this could lead to greater belowground C investment by EcM‐associated trees. This potential for less efficient N uptake by EcM‐trees could contribute to AM‐tree success and a shift toward more AM‐dominated temperate forests.

Fitch, Amelia A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Photosynthetic responses of switchgrass to light and CO 2 under different precipitation treatments

Switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L .) is a prominent bioenergy crop with robust resilience to environmental stresses. However, our knowledge regarding how precipitation changes affect switchgrass photosynthesis and its responses to light and CO 2 remains limited. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted a field precipitation experiment with five different treatments, including −50%, −33%, 0%, +33%, and +50% of ambient precipitation. To determine the responses of leaf photosynthesis to CO 2 concentration and light, we measured leaf net photosynthesis of switchgrass under different CO 2 concentrations and light levels in 2020 and 2021 for each of the five precipitation treatments. We first evaluated four light and CO 2 response models (i.e., rectangular hyperbola model, nonrectangular hyperbola model, exponential model, and the modified rectangular hyperbola model) using the measurements in the ambient precipitation treatment. Based on the fitting criteria, we selected the nonrectangular hyperbola model as the optimal model and applied it to all precipitation treatments, and estimated model parameters. Overall, the model fit field measurements well for the light and CO 2 response curves. Precipitation change did not influence the maximum net photosynthetic rate ( P max ) but influenced other model parameters including quantum yield ( α ), convexity ( θ ), dark respiration ( Rd ), light compensation point ( LCP ), and saturated light point ( LSP ). Specifically, the mean P max of five precipitation treatments was 17.6 μmol CO 2 m −2 s −1 , and the ambient treatment tended to have a higher P max . The +33% treatment had the highest α , and the ambient treatment had lower θ and LCP , higher Rd , and relatively lower LSP . Furthermore, precipitation significantly influenced all model parameters of CO 2 response. The ambient treatment had the highest P max , largest α , and lowest θ , R d , and CO 2 compensation point LCP . Overall, this study improved our understanding of how switchgrass leaf photosynthesis responds to diverse environmental factors, providing valuable insights for accurately modeling switchgrass ecophysiology and productivity.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Advances in Miscanthus × Giganteus Planting Techniques May Increase Carbon Uptake in the Establishment Year

Agricultural lands hold significant potential for CO 2 sequestration, particularly when utilizing biomass crops and agricultural residues. Among these, Miscanthus × giganteus (mxg) stands out due to its high productivity and carbon sequestration capabilities. Recognizing the importance of such biomass crops, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has identified Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) as a crucial strategy for achieving net-zero CO 2 emissions by 2050. This study examines the carbon uptake potential of mxg during its establishment year at the Sustainable Advanced Bioeconomy Research (SABR) farm in Iowa, USA, where mxg was planted at a density exceeding previous studies. Using eddy covariance (EC) measurements, we quantified the net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE), and derived gross primary productivity (GPP), and ecosystem respiration (R eco ). Our findings reveal that SABR's mxg exhibited a significant carbon uptake of –621 g C m –2 , a threefold increase compared to a similar EC site in the “corn-belt” (University of Illinois Energy Research Farm; UIEF), which was established with lower planting density and pre-commercial planting equipment. Favorable growing conditions and advanced planting technologies at SABR likely contributed to this high carbon uptake. Comparisons with other global EC studies indicated a strong correlation between higher planting densities and greater carbon uptake. These results suggest that increasing mxg planting density can enhance carbon uptake, but further studies are necessary to evaluate the impacts under varying environmental conditions and management practices. Additionally, economic analyses are essential to determine the viability of higher planting densities. Our study underscores the potential of optimized mxg management practices to contribute significantly to CO 2 uptake and supports the development of BECCS as a viable climate change mitigation strategy.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Carbon Budget of Land Conversion: Sugarcane Expansion and Implications for a Sustainable Bioenergy Landscape in Southeastern United States

The expansion of sugarcane onto land currently occupied by improved (IMP) and semi-native (SN) pastures will reshape the U.S. bioenergy landscape. We combined biometric, ground-based and eddy covariance methods to investigate the impact of sugarcane expansion across subtropical Florida on the carbon (C) budget over a 3-year rotation. With 2.3- and 5.1-fold increase in productivity over IMP and SN pastures, sugarcane displayed a C use efficiency (CUE; i.e., fraction of gross C uptake allocated to plant growth) of 0.59, well above that of pastures (0.31–0.23). Sugarcane also had greater C allocation to aboveground productivity and hence, harvestable biomass relative to IMP and SN. Cane heterotrophic respiration over the 3-year rotation (903 ± 335 gC m −2 year −1 ) was 1% and 14% higher than IMP and SN pastures, respectively. These soil C losses responded largely to disturbance over the first year after conversion (1510 ± 227 gC m −2 year −1 ) but declined in subsequent years to an average 599 ± 90 gC m −2 year −1 —well below those of IMP (933 ± 140 gC m −2 year −1 ) and SN (759 ± 114 gC m −2 year −1 ) pastures—despite a significant 40%–61% increase in soil C inputs. Soil C inputs, however, shifted from root-dominated in pastures to litter-dominated in sugarcane, with only 5% C allocation to roots. Reduced decomposition rates in sugarcane were likely driven by changes in the recalcitrance and distribution rather than the size of the newly incorporated soil C pool. As a result, we observed a rapid shift in the net ecosystem C balance (NECB) of sugarcane from a large source immediately following conversion to approaching the net C losses of IMP pastures only 2 years after conversion. The environmental cost of converting pasture to sugarcane underscores the importance of implementing management practices to harness the soil C storage potential of sugarcane in advancing a sustainable bioeconomy in Southeastern United States.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2026

What Is the Best Use of Biomass? A Harmonized LCA-TEA Framework Quantifying Economic and Environmental Metrics for Bioenergy Pathways

Bioresource utilization is expected to play a pivotal role in complementing existing energy pathways and enhancing energy resilience. This study develops a harmonized life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) framework to evaluate the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction potential, minimum fuel selling price (MFSP), and marginal abatement cost (MAC) of bioenergy pathways. We analyze 19 pathways, including liquid biofuels (via catalytic fast pyrolysis, Fischer–Tropsch synthesis, and gasification), bioelectricity, and biomass-to-hydrogen, with and without carbon capture and storage (CCS). The GHG impacts are assessed using the GREET 2022 model, while U.S. Billion-Ton 2016 biomass availability projections are used to estimate scale-up potential. Additionally, we evaluate the influence of a low-carbon electricity grid on pathway performance. Our results show that CCS implementation reduces carbon intensities (CI) to net-negative values for several pathways, with MAC ranging from $\$$32 to $\$$600 per metric ton (MT) CO2e avoided. Bioelectricity pathways with CCS achieve the lowest MAC ($\$$32–$\$$68/tCO2e), while liquid biofuels and hydrogen pathways remain critical for hard-to-abate sectors like aviation and heavy industry. Pathways with net-positive electricity demand benefit from a low-carbon grid, whereas those co-producing electricity experience increased MAC under lower electricity grid CI scenarios. This open-source framework provides a robust tool for harmonized evaluation of bioenergy pathways, enabling policymakers and stakeholders to identify cost-effective strategies for biomass utilization and carbon abatement at scale. The findings underscore the importance of CCS, co-product credits, and feedstock availability in optimizing bioenergy deployment for a low-carbon economy.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Environmental factors have a greater influence on photosynthetic capacity in C 4 plants than biochemical subtypes or growth forms

Our understanding of how photosynthetic capacity varies among C 4 species and across growth and measurement conditions remains limited. We collated 1696 CO 2 response curves of net CO 2 assimilation rate (A/C i curves) from C 4 species grown and measured at various environmental conditions and used these data to estimate the apparent maximum carboxylation activity of phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase (V pmaxA ) and CO 2 -saturated net photosynthetic rate (A max ), two key parameters describing photosynthetic capacity. We examined how V pmaxA and A max vary with species-specific traits, growth and measurement conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Phylogeny, morphology, virulence, ecology, and host range of Ordospora pajunii (Ordosporidae), a microsporidian symbiont of Daphnia spp.

ABSTRACT The impacts of microsporidia on host individuals are frequently subtle and can be context dependent. A key example of the latter comes from a recently discovered microsporidian symbiont of Daphnia , the net impact of which was found to shift from negative to positive based on environmental context. Given this, we hypothesized low baseline virulence of the microsporidian; here, we investigated the impact of infection on hosts in controlled conditions and the absence of other stressors. We also investigated its phylogenetic position, ecology, and host range. The genetic data indicate that the symbiont is Ordospora pajunii , a newly described microsporidian parasite of Daphnia . We show that O. pajunii infection damages the gut, causing infected epithelial cells to lose microvilli and then rupture. The prevalence of this microsporidian could be high (up to 100% in the lab and 77% of adults in the field). Its overall virulence was low in most cases, but some genotypes suffered reduced survival and/or reproduction. Susceptibility and virulence were strongly host-genotype dependent. We found that North American O. pajunii were able to infect multiple Daphnia species, including the European species Daphnia longispina , as well as Ceriodaphnia spp. Given the low, often undetectable virulence of this microsporidian and potentially far-reaching consequences of infections for the host when interacting with other pathogens or food, this Daphnia–O. pajunii symbiosis emerges as a valuable system for studying the mechanisms of context-dependent shifts between mutualism and parasitism, as well as for understanding how symbionts might alter host interactions with resources. IMPORTANCE The net outcome of symbiosis depends on the costs and benefits to each partner. Those can be context dependent, driving the potential for an interaction to change between parasitism and mutualism. Understanding the baseline fitness impact in an interaction can help us understand those shifts; for an organism that is generally parasitic, it should be easier for it to become a mutualist if its baseline virulence is relatively low. Recently, a microsporidian was found to become beneficial to its Daphnia hosts in certain ecological contexts, but little was known about the symbiont (including its species identity). Here, we identify it as the microsporidium Ordospora pajunii . Despite the parasitic nature of microsporidia, we found O. pajunii to be, at most, mildly virulent; this helps explain why it can shift toward mutualism in certain ecological contexts and helps establish O. pajunii is a valuable model for investigating shifts along the mutualism-parasitism continuum.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Search for baryon junctions in photonuclear processes and isobar collisions at RHIC

During the early development of quantum chromodynamics, it was proposed that baryon number could be carried by a non-perturbative Y-shaped topology of gluon fields, called the gluon junction, rather than by the valence quarks as in the QCD standard model. A puzzling feature of ultra-relativistic nucleus-nucleus collisions is the apparent substantial baryon excess in the mid-rapidity region that could not be adequately accounted for in most conventional models of quark and diquark transport. The transport of baryonic gluon junctions is predicted to lead to a characteristic exponential distribution of net-baryon density with rapidity and could resolve the puzzle. In this context we point out that the rapidity density of net-baryons near mid-rapidity indeed follows an exponential distribution with a slope of –0.61 ± 0.03 as a function of beam rapidity in the existing global data from A+A collisions at AGS, SPS and RHIC energies. To further test if quarks or gluon junctions carry the baryon quantum number, we propose to study the absolute magnitude of the baryon vs. charge stopping in isobar collisions at RHIC. We also argue that semi-inclusive photon-induced processes (γ + p/A) at RHIC kinematics provide an opportunity to search for the signatures of the baryon junction and to shed light onto the mechanisms of observed baryon excess in the mid-rapidity region in ultra-relativistic nucleus-nucleus collisions. Such measurements can be further validated in A+A collisions at the LHC and e + p/A collisions at the EIC.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Exploring the QCD phase diagram through correlations and fluctuations

The exploration of the Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD) phase diagram is a central goal of relativistic heavy-ion collision experiments. This review focuses on the role of fluctuations and correlations as sensitive probes of the phase structure. We discuss theoretical advancements and experimental methodologies employed to map the QCD phase diagram, highlighting constraints derived from both lattice QCD calculations and existing experimental data. Key observables such as cumulants and factorial cumulants of conserved charges (e.g., net-proton, net-charge) are explored as promising signatures of phase transitions and the QCD critical point. We discuss how these quantities are measured experimentally and compared with theoretical predictions, addressing challenges and best practices for meaningful comparisons. Special attention is given to predictions and current experimental results at high baryon density, including recent findings from the STAR collaboration at RHIC. Finally, we identify open issues and future directions for fluctuation and correlation studies at lower collision energies, relevant for future measurements, for example by the CBM experiment.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning-based Non-Stationary Bias Correction (NSBC)

This work develops the NSBC (non-stationary bias correction) methodology to correct temperature projection bias from E3SM. The NSBC deep learning framework consists of a three-part architecture: an auto-encoder for compressing the spatial information, an LSTM for predicting annual temperature mean, and a U-Net for capturing the residual bias in temperature. The non-stationary bias correction (NSBC) framework can correct the non-stationarity of the biases of the climate models, which significantly improves the accuracy of future temperature prediction and improves the overestimation of extreme high temperatures that many existing bias correction methods suffer from. Getting started 1. Obtain the historical climate simulation and observation data. The E3SM simulation data are available through https://aims2.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/. The pseudo observations, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)-ESM4 model (Krasting et al., 2018) are available through https://aims2.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/. The spatial resolution of E3SM and pseudo observation datasets are both regridded to a common 1° resolution grid using conservative interpolation. The regridded E3SM and pseudo observation with 1° resolution can be found throught ./data/. 2. Train the Auto-encoder model. Python 0-autoencoder.py 3. Train the LSTM Python 1-LSTM.py 4. Generate the annual mean temperature based on trained LSTM Python 2-generate_annual_mean_LSTM.py 5. Train the U-Net. Python 3-unet.py 6. Evaluation and compared with the baseline Python 4_evaluation.py Is there a deadline approaching that requires the release of yo

Lucas, Donald↗

DOE OSTI2024

Atmospheric Variability Drives Anomalies in the Bering Sea Air–Sea Heat Exchange

Abstract High latitudes, including the Bering Sea, are experiencing unprecedented rates of change. Long-term Bering Sea warming trends have been identified, and marine heatwaves (MHWs), event-scale elevated sea surface temperature (SST) extremes, have also increased in frequency and longevity in recent years. Recent work has shown that variability in air–sea coupling plays a dominant role in driving Bering Sea upper-ocean thermal variability and that surface forcing has driven an increase in the occurrence of positive ocean temperature anomalies since 2010. In this work, we characterize the drivers of the anomalous surface air–sea heat fluxes in the Bering Sea over the period 2010–22 using ERA5 fields. We show that the surface turbulent heat flux dominates the net surface heat flux variability from September to April and is primarily a result of near-surface air temperature and specific humidity anomalies. The airmass anomalies that account for the majority of the turbulent heat flux variability are a function of wind direction, with southerly (northerly) wind advecting anomalously warm (cool), moist (dry) air over the Bering Sea, resulting in positive (negative) surface turbulent flux anomalies. During the remaining months of the year, anomalies in the surface radiative fluxes account for the majority of the net surface heat flux variability and are a result of anomalous cloud coverage, anomalous lower-tropospheric virtual temperature, and sea ice coverage variability. Our results indicate that atmospheric variability drives much of the Bering Sea upper-ocean temperature variability through the mediation of the surface heat fluxes during the analysis period. Significance Statement A long-term ocean warming trend and a recent increase in marine heatwaves in the Bering Sea have been identified. Previous work showed that anomalies in the exchange of heat between the ocean and the atmosphere were the primary driver of Bering Sea temperature variability, but the processes responsible for the heat exchange anomalies were unknown. In this work, we show that the atmosphere is the primary driver of anomalies in the Bering Sea air–sea heat exchange and therefore plays an important role in altering the thermal state of the Bering Sea. Our results highlight the importance of understanding more about how the ocean and the atmosphere interact at high latitudes and how this relationship will be affected by future climate change.

Hayden, Emily E. [a College of Earth, Ocean, and A↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Influence of Anomalous Biomass Emissions on ENSO in CESM2

Abstract The influence of biomass burning (BB) aerosols arising from wildfires and agricultural fires on the transient coupled evolution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is explored in Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2). For both El Niño and La Niña, two 20-member ensembles are generated from initial states that are predisposed to evolve into ENSO events. For each ENSO phase, one ensemble is forced with the observed BB emissions during satellite-era ENSO events while the other is forced with a climatological annual cycle, with the responses to anomalous BB emissions estimated from interensemble differences. It is found that the regional responses to anomalous BB emissions occur mainly during boreal fall, which is also the time of the climatological seasonal maximum in emissions. Transient responses are identified in precipitation, clouds, and radiation in both the tropics and extratropics. At the onset of El Niño, these include increased precipitation in the northern branch of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and an enhancement of cloud albedo and amount across the Maritime Continent and eastern subtropical Pacific Ocean. Additional responses are identified through the course of El Niño and successive La Niña events, the net effect of which is to strengthen sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern Pacific Ocean during El Niño and warm the tropical Pacific Ocean during La Niña. These responses improve the simulation of ENSO power, diversity, and asymmetry in CESM2. Significance Statement Biomass burning emissions from both wildfires and agricultural fires during ENSO act as a climate feedback, as they are both driven by fire weather anomalies tied to ENSO and influence clouds, radiation, and precipitation on a global scale. While the largest biomass burning (BB) emissions emanate mainly from Indonesia, other regions also exhibit systematic responses. When simulated in CESM2, the emissions collectively impact the flows of energy across the tropical Pacific Ocean in a spatially and temporally complex fashion, with the net effect of improving CESM2’s simulation of ENSO events.

Fasullo, John T. [National Center for Atmospheric ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Decomposing Cloud Radiative Feedbacks by Cloud-Top Phase

Changes in cloud scattering properties and emissivity that arise from atmospheric warming cause substantial radiative feedbacks in model projections of anthropogenic climate change, and the relative importance of the underlying mechanisms is poorly understood. One leading hypothesis is that ice-to-liquid conversions cause clouds to optically thicken, producing a major negative feedback. We test this hypothesis by developing a method to decompose cloud radiative feedbacks by cloud-top phase. The method is applied to an ensemble of six state-of-the-art global climate models run with prescribed sea surface temperature. In these simulations, the global mean of the net cloud scattering and emissivity feedback from cloud-phase conversions ranges from −0.17 to −0.01 W m −2 K −1 , while the overall net cloud feedback ranges from 0.02 to 0.91 W m −2 K −1 . The multimodel mean of the cloud scattering and emissivity feedback from cloud-phase conversions is approximately 19% of the magnitude of the multimodel mean of the overall cloud feedback (−0.10 vs 0.52 W m −2 K −1 ). These results indicate that cloud-phase conversions cause a robust negative feedback by changing cloud scattering and emissivity, but this mechanism makes a modest contribution to the overall cloud feedback at the global scale.

Climate change↗

DOE OSTI2025

Distinctive Pattern of Global Warming in Ocean Heat Content

Abstract Huge heat anomalies in the atmosphere and ocean in recent years are not yet explained. Strong characteristic patterns in temperatures for upper layers of the ocean occurred from 2000 to 2023 in the presence of global warming from increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. Here, we show that the deep tropics are warming, although sharply modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation events, with strong heating in the extratropics near 40°N and 40°–45°S but little heating near 20°N and 25°–30°S. The heating is most clearly manifested in zonal-mean ocean heat content and is evident in sea surface temperatures. The strongest heating is in the Southern Hemisphere, where aerosol effects are small. Estimates are made of the contributions to heating of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation, atmospheric energy transports, surface fluxes of energy, and redistribution of energy by surface winds and ocean currents. The patterns of change are not directly related to TOA radiation but are evident in net surface energy fluxes and inferred ocean heat transports, underscoring their coupled origin. Changes in the atmospheric circulation through a poleward shift in ocean jet streams and storm tracks are reflected in surface wind-driven ocean Ekman transports. As well as human-induced climate change, internal natural variability is likely in play. Hence, the atmosphere and ocean currents are systematically redistributing heat from global warming, profoundly affecting local climates. Significance Statement As the climate changes, it has been difficult to discern meaningful patterns. Distinctive patterns of change have occurred in the ocean when examined as zonal averages around latitude bands. Most excess heat from global warming resides in the ocean and, since 2005, has become focused into bands near 40°N and 40°S, with little net warming in the subtropics. The strongest warming is in the Southern Hemisphere, although sea surface temperatures have increased more in the Northern Hemisphere. Changes in the atmospheric circulation through a poleward shift in the jet stream and storm tracks are primarily responsible along with corresponding changes in ocean currents. These changes are linked through surface exchanges of energy via heat, moisture, and wind stress.

Trenberth, Kevin E. [National Center for Atmospher↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data for A Hybrid Biophysical-Machine Learning Framework for Diurnal Surface Energy Flux Estimation Using Proximal Sensing

Thermal infrared-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy (LE) and sensible heat (H) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal infrared data sets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of a ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R2 = 0.81–0.94) and H (R2 = 0.46–0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical-machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

AI/ML↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data for Creating Yellow Seed Camelina sativa with Enhanced Oil Accumulation by CRISPR-Mediated Disruption of Transparent Testa 8

Camelina ( Camelina sativa L.), a hexaploid member of the Brassicaceae family, is an emerging oilseed crop being developed to meet the increasing demand for plant oils as biofuel feedstocks. In other Brassicas, high oil content can be associated with a yellow seed phenotype, which is unknown for camelina. We sought to create yellow seed camelina using CRISPR/Cas9 technology to disrupt its Transparent Testa 8 (TT8) transcription factor genes and to evaluate the resulting seed phenotype. We identified three TT8 genes, one in each of the three camelina subgenomes, and obtained independent CsTT8 lines containing frameshift edits. Disruption of TT8 caused seed coat colour to change from brown to yellow reflecting their reduced flavonoid accumulation of up to 44%, and the loss of a well-organized seed coat mucilage layer. Transcriptomic analysis of CsTT8-edited seeds revealed significantly increased expression of the lipid-related transcription factors LEC1, LEC2, FUS3, and WRI1 and their downstream fatty acid synthesis-related targets. These changes caused metabolic remodelling with increased fatty acid synthesis rates and corresponding increases in total fatty acid (TFA) accumulation from 32.4% to as high as 38.0% of seed weight, and TAG yield by more than 21% without significant changes in starch or protein levels compared to parental line. These data highlight the effectiveness of CRISPR in creating novel enhanced-oil germplasm in camelina. The resulting lines may directly contribute to future net-zero carbon energy production or be combined with other traits to produce desired lipid-derived bioproducts at high yields.

Biofuels↗