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Solutions Network Formulation Report: Improving NOAA's PORTS(R) Through Enhanced Data Inputs from NASA's Ocean Surface Topography Mission

The Nation uses water-level data for a variety of practical purposes, including nautical charting, maritime navigation, hydrography, coastal engineering, and tsunami and storm surge warnings. Long-term applications include marine boundary determinations, tidal predictions, sea-level trend monitoring, oceanographic research, and climate research. Accurate and timely information concerning sea-level height, tide, and ocean current is needed to understand their impact on coastal management, disaster management, and public health. Satellite altimeter data products are currently used by hundreds of researchers and operational users to monitor ocean circulation and to improve scientists understanding of the role of the oceans in climate and weather. The NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) National Ocean Service has been monitoring sea-level variations for many years. NOAA s PORTS (Physical Oceanographic Real-Time System) DST (decision support tool), managed by the Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, supports safe and cost-efficient navigation by providing ship masters and pilots with accurate real-time information required to avoid groundings and collisions. This report assesses the capacity of NASA s satellite altimeter data to meet societal decision support needs through incorporation into NOAA s PORTS. NASA has a long heritage of collecting data for ocean research, including its current Terra and Aqua missions. Numerous other missions provide additional important information for coastal management issues, and data collection will continue in the coming decade with such missions as the OSTM (Ocean Surface Topography Mission). OSTM will provide data on sea-surface heights for determining ocean circulation, climate change, and sea-level rise. We suggest that NASA incorporate OSTM altimeter data (C- and Ku-band) into NOAA s PORTS DST in support of NASA s Coastal Management National Application with secondary support to the Disaster Management and Public Health National Applications.

Guest, DeNeice↗

Compound Flooding in Halmstad: Common Causes, Interannual Variability and the Effects of Climate Change

Compound flooding was investigated in Halmstad on the Swedish west coast. The highest sea level ever recorded in Sweden was recorded by the Halmstad tide gauge. Moreover, through the city runs Nissan, one of the largest hydropower-producing rivers in southern Sweden. Together these features make the city an interesting location to study compound flooding. Co-variability between different hazards are studied using a unique set of downscaled climate scenario projections produced using state-of-the-art regional atmosphere, ocean and hydrological models. River discharge and sea level annual maxima are found to be correlated with peak strength on interannual time scales. This co-variability is found to derive from a mutual dependence that these hazards have on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Precipitation also shares this dependence in winter months and acts as a driver, building up the fluvial river hazard, while potentially adding additional pluvial hazard. Trends are also assessed, and it was found that future changes in compound flooding will most likely be driven primarily by mean sea level rise and secondarily by increases in mean river discharge.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Next Generation of Mars-GRAM and Its Role in the Autonomous Aerobraking Development Plan

The Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) is an engineering-level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. Mars-GRAM 2010 is currently being used to develop the onboard atmospheric density estimator that is part of the Autonomous Aerobraking Development Plan. In previous versions, Mars-GRAM was less than realistic when used for sensitivity studies for Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) MapYear=0 and large optical depth values, such as tau=3. A comparison analysis has been completed between Mars-GRAM, TES and data from the Planetary Data System (PDS) resulting in updated coefficients for the functions relating density, latitude, and longitude of the sun. The adjustment factors are expressed as a function of height (z), Latitude (Lat) and areocentric solar longitude (Ls). The latest release of Mars-GRAM 2010 includes these adjustment factors that alter the in-put data from MGCM and MTGCM for the Mapping Year 0 (user-controlled dust) case. The greatest adjustment occurs at large optical depths such as tau greater than 1. The addition of the adjustment factors has led to better correspondence to TES Limb data from 0-60 km as well as better agreement with MGS, ODY and MRO data at approximately 90-135 km. Improved simulations utilizing Mars-GRAM 2010 are vital to developing the onboard atmospheric density estimator for the Autonomous Aerobraking Development Plan. Mars-GRAM 2010 was not the only planetary GRAM utilized during phase 1 of this plan; Titan-GRAM and Venus-GRAM were used to generate density data sets for Aerobraking Design Reference Missions. These data sets included altitude profiles (both vertical and along a trajectory), GRAM perturbations (tides, gravity waves, etc.) and provided density and scale height values for analysis by other Autonomous Aero-braking team members.

Justh, Hilary L.↗

Thermospheric superrotation revisited

The characteristics of thermospheric superrotation and accompanying latitudinal variations in temperature and composition are examined theoretically. Superrotation was measured by the Dynamics Explorer 2 satellite, which provided data for the atmospheric rotational velocity with respect to that of the planet for all seasons for 300-350 km altitudes. Zonally averaged circulation is described with momentum equations. A spectral model covers the superrotation, and account is taken of symmetric radiative and auroral components, asymmetric ion drag, an asymmetric pressure gradient and a viscous component. The horizontal wind field of the diurnal tide and diurnal variations in ion density which produce a momentum source are the largest contributors to superrotation at low and midlatitudes.

Mayr, H. G.↗

The Precise Orbit and the Challenge of Long Term Stability

The computation of a precise orbit reference is a fundamental component of the altimetric measurement. Since the dawn of the modern altimeter age, orbit accuracy has been determined by the quality of the GPS, SLR, and DORIS tracking systems, the fidelity of the measurement and force models, and the choice of parameterization for the orbit solutions, and whether a dynamic or a reduced-dynamic strategy is used to calculate the orbits. At the start of the TOPEX mission, the inaccuracies in the modeling of static gravity, dynamic ocean tides, and the nonconservative forces dominated the orbit error budget. Much of the error due to dynamic mismodeling can be compensated by reduced-dynamic tracking techniques depending on the measurement system strength. In the last decade, the launch of the GRACE mission has eliminated the static gravity field as a concern, and the background force models and the terrestrial reference frame have been systematically refined. GPS systems have realized many improvements, including better modeling of the forces on the GPS spacecraft, large increases in the ground tracking network, and improved modeling of the GPS measurements. DORIS systems have achieved improvements through the use of new antennae, more stable monumentation, and of satellite receivers that can track multiple beacons, and as well as through improved modeling of the nonconservative forces. Many of these improvements have been applied in the new reprocessed time series of orbits produced for the ERS satellites, Envisat, TOPEX/Poseidon and the Jason satellites, and as well as for the most recent Cryosat-2 and HY2A. We now face the challenge of maintaining a stable orbit reference for these altimetric satellites. Changes in the time-variable gravity field of the Earth and how these are modelled have been shown to affect the orbit evolution, and the calibration of the altimetric data with tide gauges. The accuracy of the reference frame realizations, and their projection into the future remains a source of error. Other sources of omission error include the geocenter for which no consensus model is as of yet applied. Although progress has been made in nonconservative force modeling through the use of detailed satellite-specific models, radiation pressure modeling, and atmospheric density modeling remain a potential source of orbit error. The longer term influence of variations in the solar and terrestrial radiation fields over annual and solar cycles remains principally untested. Also the long term variation in optical and thermal properties of the space vehicle surfaces would contribute to biases in the orbital frame if ignored. We review the status of altimetric precision orbit determination as exemplified by the recent computations undertaken by the different analysis centers for ERS, Envisat, TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason, Cryosat2 and HY2A, and we provide a perspective on the challenges for future missions such as the Jason-3, SENTINEL-3 and SWOT.

Lemoine, Frank G.↗

Post-Viking models for the structure of the summer atmosphere of Mars

A reference model is proposed for the structure of the Mars atmosphere up to 100-km altitude. Based on Viking data, the model incorporates the mean temperature structure, mean surface pressure, mean molecular weight and gas constant, and pressure and density profiles. Model profiles with Viking and Mars 6 data are compared, and attention is given to warm and cool models. The thermal boundary layer is considered along with the role of thermal tides.

Seiff, A.↗

The global reference atmospheric model, mod 2 (with two scale perturbation model)

The Global Reference Atmospheric Model was improved to produce more realistic simulations of vertical profiles of atmospheric parameters. A revised two scale random perturbation model using perturbation magnitudes which are adjusted to conform to constraints imposed by the perfect gas law and the hydrostatic condition is described. The two scale perturbation model produces appropriately correlated (horizontally and vertically) small scale and large scale perturbations. These stochastically simulated perturbations are representative of the magnitudes and wavelengths of perturbations produced by tides and planetary scale waves (large scale) and turbulence and gravity waves (small scale). Other new features of the model are: (1) a second order geostrophic wind relation for use at low latitudes which does not "blow up" at low latitudes as the ordinary geostrophic relation does; and (2) revised quasi-biennial amplitudes and phases and revised stationary perturbations, based on data through 1972.

Justus, C. G.↗

Dust transport in the Martian atmosphere

Dust in suspension within the martian atmosphere is an important driver of the atmospheric thermal and, ultimately, dynamical states. By virtue of its presence in the atmosphere, this suspended dust is susceptible to transport by the winds and thus the location from which dust is lifted from the surface is not necessarily the location at which it will return to the surface. Such surface dust lifting and subsequent transport, when accumulated over daily, seasonal and annual time intervals define the martian dust cycle. The atmospheric transport element (and equally surface lifting and redeposition) of this cycle is strongly dependent upon season and the quantity of dust in suspension. The seasonal dependence arises due to the dominance of particular components of the atmospheric circulation at particular locations (latitudes) at various times through the year. The dependence on dust abundance is due to the amount of dust available for transport, but it is also due to the influence that the dust has on the intensity of the circulation. As dust abundance and therefore its radiative influence increases, some components of the circulation intensity (Hadley circulation, thermal tides), while some components may decline in intensity (baroclinic waves, condensation flow). For these reasons, our ability to understand the martian dust cycle is dependent on our ability to define the contributions that various circulation components, under varying seasonal and dust-radiative forcings, play in the transport of dust around the planet.

Murphy, James R.↗

Meteorological observations of synoptic disturbances: Sensitivity to latitude

The Mars pathfinder MET experiment will make pressure, temperature, and wind measurements on the surface of Mars. The Viking Lander Meteorology Experiment measurements were marked by the presence of variations associated with synoptic weather disturbances throughout the fall and winter season. Numerical simulations of the Mars atmospheric circulation show that the winter midlatitudes are the center of activity for traveling disturbances of planetary scale, disturbances that have their fundamental origin in the baroclinic instability of the wintertime Mars atmospheric circulation. The studies are consistent with Viking observations in that the disturbances decay in amplitude toward lower latitudes. The further north the Mars Pathfinder is located, the more clearly it will be able to detect the signatures of the midlatitude weather system. A landing site close to 15 deg N should allow measurement of the weather disturbances, along with observations of the thermal tides, slope winds, and the relatively steady winds associated with the general circulation - the 'trade winds' of Mars. A landing site near 15 deg N would be significantly further equatorward than the Viking Lander 1 site, and thus would provide more of a view of tropical circulation processes.

Barnes, Jeff R.↗

UAH Analysis of TIDE/PSI Data for ISTP Solar Maximum Extended Mission

During the course of this research, several investigations have been carried out at both high and low altitudes. The low altitude studies are those associated with perigee observations of ion field-aligned flows measured by POLAR/TIDE near 5000 km altitude. High altitude studies employed ion observations near apogee (above 6 R(sub E) geocentric). In both cases the observations occur at high latitudes, in or near the polar regions: the southern polar region for the low altitude studies and the northern polar region for the high altitude studies. A study of the relationship between field-aligned flow velocities, fluxes, and densities to convection speeds was published in the Journal of Atmospheric and Terrestrial Physics . Here we have demonstrated an anti-correlation between the 0+ densities and the convection speeds, and a correlation between the parallel upward velocities and the convection speeds, and have discussed these results as being compatible with the Cleft Ion Fountain concept for supplying O(sup +) ions to the polar cap magnetosphere. Another topic investigated was the relationship between TIDE-observed upward and downward parallel O(sup +) bulk velocities near 5000 km altitude over the southern polar regions, and near-simultaneous auroral observations by the Ultra-Violet Imager. We have prepared several overlaid plots of such auroral images across an MLT-ILAT dial plot of the polar regions with upward and downward velocities, as well as other parameters such as ion densities and fluxes. The overlaid plots show quite nicely how upward velocities and crossovers between upward and downward velocities occur in association with auroral forms, while downward flows are associated with dark regions of the polar cap.

Comfort, Richard H.↗

Oceanic Tidal Mixing As a Contributor to Milankovitch-scale Climate Change

We propose that changes in the magnitude of oceanic tidal mixing on long time scales is an important, but previously unrecognized, contributor to global climate change. it is well known that Earth's orbital and rotational state changes significantly on 10(exp 4)-10(exp 5) year time scales, and that this influences the spatial and temporal pattern of incident radiation. It is widely supposed that climatic variations on these same time scales are, in large part, a response of the ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere system to this radiative forcing. Our proposal is that variations in the luni-solar tidal potential, induced by these same orbital and rotational variations, influences oceanic mixing and thus modulates meridional heat transport, by amounts which are competitive with the radiative forcing. There are some obvious differences between tidal potential and insolation. First is that the Sun and Moon both contribute to tides, whereas the radiation is entirely of solar origin. Second is that the Earth is transparent to gravity but opaque to radiation. Clipping associated with this opacity makes the radiation pattern temporal spectrum rather more complex than the tidal spectrum. A third point is that solar radiation directly delivers energy to Earth's surface whereas tidal mixing will only expedite lateral transport of heat in association with oceanic thermohaline circulation. The diurnal average insolation pattern is best parameterized via a Fourier series in time of year and Legendre polynomials in sine of latitude. Our present focus will be on the annual average terms. The Legendre degree n=0 term describes the global average insolation, and is nearly constant. The degree n=l term describes differences between northern and southern hemispheres, and the annual mean is zero. The degree n=2 term is the main contributor to the equator to pole variations, and varies with obliquity and orbital eccentricity, with the obliquity variation dominating. The lowest order decomposition of the tidal potential recognizes 3 constituents: semi-diurnal, diurnal, and long period, with solar and lunar contributions to each. Our present focus will be on long term variations in the mean square amplitude of the semi-diurnal constituent, with averaging over all the short period variations. For the solar tide that includes the day and year. For the lunar tide it includes the day, month, year, and the apsidal (8.85 year) and nodal (18.6 year) periods. We present calculations of the variations in radiative and tidal forcing for the past 3 million years. The two signals are quite similar. Both vary by approximately 1% of their respective mean values, are dominated by obliquity variations, and exhibit only secondary influence from orbital eccentricity.

Munk, Walter↗

Diagnostic requirements for the superrotation on Venus

The eddy source pattern required to maintain zonally averaged circulation in the solar heating and zonal wind profiles of the Venus atmosphere below 80 km has been calculated. The calculated residual meridional circulation in the cloud top region corresponds to multiple direct and indirect cells in the vertical, whose depths are controlled by the scales of solar heating and eddy sources. In the presence of mean meridional transports, the observed zonal superrotation can be supported by alternating layers of eddy sources and sinks, which may be due to thermal tides.

Hou, A. Y.↗

Earth tides, volcanos and climatic change

The effect of variations in tidal stresses on the earth caused by the sun and moon on volcanic activity and climate is investigated. A statistically significant correlation is found between the derivatives of the envelopes of peak tidal stresses at high northern latitudes and the mean temperature of the Northern Hemisphere as reflected in oxygen isotope ratios in the Greenland ice cap. It is suggested that variations in tidal stresses cause changes in the amount of stratospheric dust produced by volcanic activity, which affects the thickness of the stratospheric dust veil and the atmospheric radiation balance. For a simple model, periodic variations in tidal stress account for 13% of the variance in the ice-core temperature record.

Roosen, R. G.↗

A Global Atmospheric Model of Meteoric Iron

The first global model of meteoric iron in the atmosphere (WACCM-Fe) has been developed by combining three components: the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a description of the neutral and ion-molecule chemistry of iron in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), and a treatment of the injection of meteoric constituents into the atmosphere. The iron chemistry treats seven neutral and four ionized iron containing species with 30 neutral and ion-molecule reactions. The meteoric input function (MIF), which describes the injection of Fe as a function of height, latitude, and day, is precalculated from an astronomical model coupled to a chemical meteoric ablation model (CABMOD). This newly developed WACCM-Fe model has been evaluated against a number of available ground-based lidar observations and performs well in simulating the mesospheric atomic Fe layer. The model reproduces the strong positive correlation of temperature and Fe density around the Fe layer peak and the large anticorrelation around 100 km. The diurnal tide has a significant effect in the middle of the layer, and the model also captures well the observed seasonal variations. However, the model overestimates the peak Fe+ concentration compared with the limited rocket-borne mass spectrometer data available, although good agreement on the ion layer underside can be obtained by adjusting the rate coefficients for dissociative recombination of Fe-molecular ions with electrons. Sensitivity experiments with the same chemistry in a 1-D model are used to highlight significant remaining uncertainties in reaction rate coefficients, and to explore the dependence of the total Fe abundance on the MIF and rate of vertical transport.

meteoric inputfunction↗

The dynamo of the diurnal tide and its effect on the thermospheric circulation

A theoretical multiconstituent model (including O, N2, and O2) which describes the interactions between neutral winds, dynamo electric fields, and ion drifts is used to interpret observations that revealed a dominance of the fundamental diurnal tide in the upper thermosphere and at equatorial latitudes, and its effect on the thermospheric circulation. The model is shown to reproduce reasonably well the magnitudes of the neutral winds, ion drift velocities, and the ratio between the two. A solution for the neutral winds in which the dynamo electric field is forced to zero shows that the dynamo-induced ion drift is very important in accelerating the neutral atmosphere at higher altitudes. The dynamo interaction primarily affects the curl component of the field; its effect on the temperature and density perturbations is small.

Mayr, H. G.↗

Satellite-tracking and earth-dynamics research programs

Observations and research progress of the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory are reported. Satellite tracking networks (ground stations) are discussed and equipment (Baker-Nunn cameras) used to observe the satellites is described. The improvement of the accuracy of a laser ranging system of the ground stations is discussed. Also, research efforts in satellite geodesy (tides, gravity anomalies, plate tectonics) is discussed. The use of data processing for geophysical data is examined, and a data base for the Earth and Ocean Physics Applications Program is proposed. Analytical models of the earth's motion (computerized simulation) are described and the computation (numerical integration and algorithms) of satellite orbits affected by the earth's albedo, using computer techniques, is also considered. Research efforts in the study of the atmosphere are examined (the effect of drag on satellite motion), and models of the atmosphere based on satellite data are described.

Source record↗

Turbulence and stress owing to gravity wave and tidal breakdown

For some years it has been accepted that tides and gravity waves propagating into the upper mesosphere from below are the major source of turbulence in the upper mesosphere. The considered investigation has the objective to examine the implications of such a situation in some detail. The main propagating diurnal mode seems to be the primary contributor at tropical latitudes. Because of the high phase speed of this mode, it is only slightly affected by the mean zonal flow of the atmosphere. Wavebreaking appears to occur around 85 km, leading to a layer of enhanced eddy diffusion and wave induced acceleration extending between 85 km and about 108 km. Above 108 km molecular transport dominates. Gravity waves appear to be dominant at middle and high latitudes. The flow distribution will effectively determine which gravity waves (depending on phase speed) can reach the mesosphere.

Lindzen, R. S.↗

Southern Hemisphere Storm Zones on Mars: Implications of MOLA Topography

Using the NASA Ames Mars general circulation model and recent Mars orbiter laser altimeter (MOLA) global topography, annual-cycle simulations have been performed corresponding to a lowglobally-averaged atmospheric dust loading (tau= 0 - 3). Comparisons of key global circulation fields as simulated utilizing previous topography datasets and those using the new Mars global topography have been carried out. Values of globally and/or hemispheric averaged kinetic energy associated with the longitudinally averaged (i.e., zonal) circulation and longitudinal departures (i.e., eddy components) as a function of season for simulations using the different topography datasets are provided contributions arising frommeteorological variability associated with thermal tides, stationary circulation components and recurrent weather systems (transient baroclinc and/or barotropic eddies). It can be noted that eddy activity in the northern hemisphere (NH) is substantially diminished using the new topographic data, and that at some seasons, the southern hemisphere (SH) activity is moderately increased. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Hollingsworth, J. L.↗