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DOE OSTI2024

Application of the AI2 Climate Emulator to E3SMv2's Global Atmosphere Model, With a Focus on Precipitation Fidelity

Abstract Can the current successes of global machine learning‐based weather simulators be generalized beyond 2‐week forecasts to stable and accurate multiyear runs? The recently developed AI2 Climate Emulator (ACE) suggests this is feasible, based upon 10‐year simulations with a network trained on output from a physics‐based global atmosphere model using a grid spacing of approximately 110 km and forced by a repeating annual cycle of sea‐surface temperature. Here we show that ACE, without modification, can be trained to emulate another major atmospheric model, EAMv2, run at a comparable grid spacing for at least 10 years with similarly small climate biases—a prerequisite to wider applicability. With an analysis that combines multiple temporal, spatial, and frequency domain perspectives, we show that ACE faithfully represents the spatiotemporal structure of EAMv2 precipitation and related variables. Finally, we show that a pretrained ACE network is able to adapt to a new global climate model simulation data set with 10 fewer training steps than when starting from random initialization, all while still maintaining low levels of climate bias. Further analysis of these fine‐tuning experiments reveal ACE's intriguing ability to interpolate between distinct global climate models.

Duncan, James P. C.↗

DOE OSTI2025

FM4NPP: A Scaling Foundation Model for Nuclear and Particle Physics

Large language models have revolutionized artificial intelligence by enabling large, generalizable models trained through self-supervision. This paradigm has inspired the development of scientific foundation models (FMs). However, applying this capability to experimental particle physics is challenging due to the sparse, spatially distributed nature of detector data, which differs dramatically from natural language. This work addresses if an FM for particle physics can scale and generalize across diverse tasks. We introduce a new dataset with more than 11 million particle collision events and a suite of downstream tasks and labeled data for evaluation. We propose a novel self-supervised training method for detector data and demonstrate its neural scalability with models that feature up to 188 million parameters. With frozen weights and task-specific adapters, this FM consistently outperforms baseline models across all downstream tasks. The performance also exhibits robust data-efficient adaptation. Further analysis reveals that the representations extracted by the FM are task-agnostic but can be specialized via a single linear mapping for different downstream tasks.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Thermodynamics-guided machine learning model for predicting convective boundary layer height and its multi-site applicability

Accurate estimation of convective boundary layer height (CBLH) is vital for weather, climate, and air quality modeling. Machine learning (ML) shows promise in CBLH prediction, but input parameter selection often lacks physical grounding, limiting generalizability. This study introduces a novel ML framework for CBLH prediction, integrating thermodynamic constraints and the diurnal CBLH cycle as an implicit physical guide. Boundary layer growth is modeled as driven by surface heat fluxes and atmospheric heat absorption represented with the low tropospheric stability, using the diurnal cycle as input and output. TPOT and AutoKeras are employed to select optimal models, validated against Doppler lidar-derived CBLH data, achieving an R 2 of 0.84 across untrained years. Comparisons of eddy covariance (ECOR) and energy balance Bowen ratio (EBBR) flux measurements show the same prediction capability. Models trained on the ARM SGP C1 site with ECOR data and tested at E37 and E39 yield R 2 values of 0.79 and 0.81, respectively, demonstrating their adaptability. The ML model trained with all sites' data slightly enhances the performance compared with ML models trained over single-site data. The interquartile range for predicted CBLH is consistently narrower than that for DL-derived CBLH, reflecting lower variability in predicted CBLH compared to DL-derived CBLH, which is influenced by additional factors, which are not well represented with the model inputs. The model's generalizability across multiple sites at the ARM SGP site demonstrates its potential for transfer to greater distances, offering a scalable approach for enhancing boundary layer parameterization in atmospheric models.

Chu, Yufei [Stony Brook Univ., NY (United States)]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effects of input gradient regularization on neural networks time-series forecasting of thermal power systems

This study proposes using neural networks, specifically gated recurrent unit (GRU), long-short-term memory (LSTM), and transformer networks, to improve control strategies in a 450 MW coal-fired power plant. However, neural networks face issues of becoming overly dependent on just a few variables to make predictions, which negatively impacts control decisions that rely on the model to determine the value of all manipulated variables. The paper introduces regularization techniques, including noise injection and input gradient regularization, during the training phase. Here, the work presents novel contributions in adapting neural networks to control industrial systems and applying regularization techniques from computer vision to industrial process control. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of input gradient regularization in reducing model dependence on subsets of variables, emphasizing the balance between fidelity and controllability. Further exploration is recommended, including the development of recurrent transformers, closed-loop control testing, and a sensitivity analysis on computer models to provide further insight.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating computational fluid dynamics simulation of post-combustion carbon capture modeling with MeshGraphNets

Packed columns are commonly used in post-combustion processes to capture CO 2 emissions by providing enhanced contact area between a CO 2 -laden gas and CO 2 -absorbing solvent. To study and optimize solvent-based post-combustion carbon capture systems (CCSs), computational fluid dynamics (CFD) can be used to model the liquid–gas countercurrent flow hydrodynamics in these columns and derive key determinants of CO 2 -capture efficiency. However, the large design space of these systems hinders the application of CFD for design optimization due to its high computational cost. In contrast, data-driven modeling approaches can produce fast surrogates to study large-scale physics problems. We build our surrogates using MeshGraphNets (MGN), a graph neural network framework that efficiently learns and produces mesh-based simulations. We apply MGN to a random packed column modeled with over 160K graph nodes and a design space consisting of three key input parameters: solvent surface tension, inlet velocity, and contact angle. Our models can adapt to a wide range of these parameters and accurately predict the complex interactions within the system at rates over 1700 times faster than CFD, affirming its practicality in downstream design optimization tasks. This underscores the robustness and versatility of MGN in modeling complex fluid dynamics for large-scale CCS analyses.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

An adaptive, data-driven multiscale approach for dense granular flows

The accuracy of coarse-grained continuum models of dense granular flows is limited by the lack of high-fidelity closure models for granular rheology. One approach to addressing this issue, referred to as the hierarchical multiscale method, is to use a high-fidelity fine-grained model to compute the closure terms needed by the coarse-grained model. The difficulty with this approach is that the overall model can become computationally intractable due to the high computational cost of the high-fidelity model. In this work, we describe a multiscale modeling approach for dense granular flows that utilizes neural networks trained using high-fidelity discrete element method (DEM) simulations to approximate the constitutive granular rheology for a continuum incompressible flow model. Our approach leverages an ensemble of neural networks to estimate predictive uncertainty that allows us to determine whether the rheology at a given point is accurately represented by the neural network model. Additional DEM simulations are only performed when needed, minimizing the number of additional DEM simulations required when updating the rheology. This adaptive coupling significantly reduces the overall computational cost of the approach while controlling the error. In addition, the neural networks are customized to learn regularized rheological behavior to ensure well-posedness of the continuum solution. We first validate the approach using two-dimensional steady-state and decelerating inclined flows. We then demonstrate the efficiency of our approach by modeling three-dimensional sub-aerial granular column collapse for varying initial column aspect ratios, where our multiscale method compares well with the computationally expensive computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-DEM simulation.

Dense granular flows↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning at the Spallation Neutron Source accelerator and target

We describe the ongoing efforts to apply Machine Learning techniques to improve the performance of our accelerator and target. Specially, we are looking to minimize halo beam losses in the absence of a proper physics model, automatically detect and log anomalies in the target support systems such as cooling, and detect and prevent errant beam pulses in the linac. We also describe the infrastructure we use to acquire and stream data to the GPU cluster for training, our code development cycle, and edge computing for model inference. To minimize halo beam losses, we use a Reinforcement Learning technique tested on a virtual accelerator. The target anomaly detection is trained on archived data using incomplete physics models and is made part of the existing target reporting system. The errant beam prevention analyzes beam current and beam phase waveforms as well as accelerator configuration data to predict errant pulses. We also develop continual learning to adapt to changes in the accelerator.

Accelerator Physics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Demonstration and Evaluation of Explainable and Trustworthy Predictive Technology for Condition-based Maintenance

The domestic nuclear power plant (NPP) fleet has historically relied on labor-intensive and time-consuming predictive maintenance (PdM) programs, thus driving up operation and maintenance (O&M) costs to achieve high-capacity factors. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine-learning (ML) can help simplify complex problems such as diagnosing equipment degradation to enable more effective decision-making efforts. The benefits of AI will be felt through more efficient plant O&M, improved work processes, and better integration of people and technology. Together, these benefits hold the promise to make nuclear power more sustainable by reducing O&M costs while improving employee engagement. While AI and ML technologies hold significant promise for the nuclear industry, there are challenges or barriers to their adoption. Explainability and trustworthiness of AI are two salient challenges that need to be addressed for wider deployment of these technologies in NPPs. This research focuses specifically on addressing the explainability and trustworthiness of AI technologies to advance the human, technical, and organization (HTO) readiness levels in adopting a risk-informed PdM strategy at commercial NPPs. In addition, this approach can be adapted to enhance the acceptability of AI in other nuclear applications with a few application-specific modifications. The technical approach ensuring wider adoption of AI technologies was developed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL)—in collaboration with Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG), Nuclear, LLC—by utilizing the circulating water system (CWS) at two PSEG-owned plant sites for demonstration. Focused user studies were performed in collaboration with subject matter experts (SMEs) from PSEG and other nuclear domains to enhance human and organization readiness by building trust in AI-informed technologies. VIsualization for PrEdictive maintenance Recommendation (VIPER)—a Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC, copyrighted software—was developed and expanded to provide a user-centric visualization by incorporating inputs from the collaborating utility, human factors engineering guidelines, and data analysts. The VIPER software enables users, who may be unfamiliar with ML in general, to be interactively engaged by asking technical questions about PdM, work orders, diagnosis results and their confidence levels, the kind of data being used, and the types of ML algorithms employed. This interactive engagement enhances explainability and builds trust. One of the enabling accomplishments was the integration of large language models (LLMs), both text-based and vision-based, in the VIPER software.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2017

Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning-Based Deep Neural Networks for Cognitive Space Communications

Future communication subsystems of space exploration missions can potentially benefit from software-defined radios (SDRs) controlled by machine learning algorithms. In this paper, we propose a novel hybrid radio resource allocation management control algorithm that integrates multi-objective reinforcement learning and deep artificial neural networks. The objective is to efficiently manage communications system resources by monitoring performance functions with common dependent variables that result in conflicting goals. The uncertainty in the performance of thousands of different possible combinations of radio parameters makes the trade-off between exploration and exploitation in reinforcement learning (RL) much more challenging for future critical space-based missions. Thus, the system should spend as little time as possible on exploring actions, and whenever it explores an action, it should perform at acceptable levels most of the time. The proposed approach enables on-line learning by interactions with the environment and restricts poor resource allocation performance through virtual environment exploration. Improvements in the multiobjective performance can be achieved via transmitter parameter adaptation on a packet-basis, with poorly predicted performance promptly resulting in rejected decisions. Simulations presented in this work considered the DVB-S2 standard adaptive transmitter parameters and additional ones expected to be present in future adaptive radio systems. Performance results are provided by analysis of the proposed hybrid algorithm when operating across a satellite communication channel from Earth to GEO orbit during clear sky conditions. The proposed approach constitutes part of the core cognitive engine proof-of-concept to be delivered to the NASA Glenn Research Center SCaN Testbed located onboard the International Space Station.

space archtiecture↗

NASA NTRS2017

Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning-based Deep Neural Networks for Cognitive Space Communications

space archtiecture↗

NASA NTRS2011

Semi-Supervised Novelty Detection with Adaptive Eigenbases, and Application to Radio Transients

We present a semi-supervised online method for novelty detection and evaluate its performance for radio astronomy time series data. Our approach uses adaptive eigenbases to combine 1) prior knowledge about uninteresting signals with 2) online estimation of the current data properties to enable highly sensitive and precise detection of novel signals. We apply the method to the problem of detecting fast transient radio anomalies and compare it to current alternative algorithms. Tests based on observations from the Parkes Multibeam Survey show both effective detection of interesting rare events and robustness to known false alarm anomalies.

anomaly detection↗

DOE OSTI2025

Active oversight and quality control in standard Bayesian optimization for autonomous experiments

The fusion of experimental automation and machine learning has catalyzed a new era in materials research, prominently featuring Gaussian Process (GP) Bayesian Optimization (BO) driven autonomous experiments. Here we introduce a Dual-GP approach that enhances traditional GPBO by adding a secondary surrogate model to dynamically constrain the experimental space based on real-time assessments of the raw experimental data. This Dual-GP approach enhances the optimization efficiency of traditional GPBO by isolating more promising space for BO sampling and more valuable experimental data for primary GP training. We also incorporate a flexible, human-in-the-loop intervention method in the Dual-GP workflow to adjust for unanticipated results. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the Dual-GP model with synthetic model data and implement this approach in autonomous pulsed laser deposition experimental data. This Dual-GP approach has broad applicability in diverse GPBO-driven experimental settings, providing a more adaptable and precise framework for refining autonomous experimentation for more efficient optimization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Benefits of Ka-band GaN MMIC High Power Amplifiers With Wide Bandwidth and High Spectral/Power Added Efficiencies for Cognitive Radio Platforms

A cognitive radio on a future NASA near-Earth spacecraft will be capable of sensing its environment and dynamically adapting its operating parameters to provide the desired SATCOM service to the mission. A key component that can enable this type of operation is a high-power amplifier (HPA) that resides on the radio platform. In this paper, we present the RF performance characteristics of a Ka-band gallium nitride (GaN) monolithic microwave integrated circuit (MMIC) based HPA for cognitive radio platforms. These characteristics include the output power, gain, power added efficiency (PAE), RMS error vector magnitude (EVM), spectral efficiency, 3rd-order intermodulation distortion (IMD) products, spectrum, spectral regrowth, noise figure (NF), and phase noise. The data presented indicates that the HPA meets NTIA, military, and commercial spectral mask requirements. In addition, we discuss the benefits offered by the above performance characteristics toward the design and implementation of a cognitive radio platform. Furthermore, as examples, we discuss three potential use cases that apply artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques and exploit the performance characteristics discussed above to provide a knowledge-based cognitive radio platform design for SATCOM. Thus, cognitive radios with performance flexibility can enable roaming and provide seamless interoperability autonomously in the future between NASA, commercial, and other space networks owned by U.S. government agencies.

Gallium nitride↗

NASA NTRS2023

Benefits of Ka-band GaN MMIC High Power Amplifiers With Wide Bandwidth and High Spectral/Power Added Efficiencies for Cognitive Radio Platforms

A cognitive radio on a future NASA near-Earth spacecraft will be capable of sensing its environment and dynamically adapting its operating parameters to provide the desired SATCOM service to the mission. A key component that can enable this type of operation is a high-power amplifier (HPA) that resides on the radio platform. In this report, we present the RF performance characteristics of a Ka-band gallium nitride (GaN) monolithic microwave integrated circuit (MMIC) based HPA for cognitive radio platforms. These characteristics include the output power, gain, power added efficiency (PAE), RMS error vector magnitude (EVM), spectral efficiency, 3rdorder intermodulation distortion (IMD) products, spectrum, spectral regrowth, noise figure (NF), phase noise, and group delay. The data presented indicates that the HPA meets NTIA, military, and commercial spectral mask requirements. In addition, we discuss the benefits offered by the above performance characteristics toward the design and implementation of a cognitive radio platform. Furthermore, as examples, we discuss three potential use cases that apply artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques and exploit the performance characteristics discussed above to provide a knowledge-based cognitive radio platform design for SATCOM. Thus, cognitive radios with performance flexibility can enable roaming and provide seamless interoperability autonomously in the future between NASA, commercial, and other space networks owned by U.S. government agencies.

Gallium nitride↗

DOE OSTI2025

Loss Landscape Analysis for Reliable Quantized ML Models for Scientific Sensing

In this paper, we propose a method to perform empirical analysis of the loss landscape of machine learning (ML) models. The method is applied to two ML models for scientific sensing, which necessitates quantization to be deployed and are subject to noise and perturbations due to experimental conditions. Our method allows assessing the robustness of ML models to such effects as a function of quantization precision and under different regularization techniques -- two crucial concerns that remained underexplored so far. By investigating the interplay between performance, efficiency, and robustness by means of loss landscape analysis, we both established a strong correlation between gently-shaped landscapes and robustness to input and weight perturbations and observed other intriguing and non-obvious phenomena. Our method allows a systematic exploration of such trade-offs a priori, i.e., without training and testing multiple models, leading to more efficient development workflows. This work also highlights the importance of incorporating robustness into the Pareto optimization of ML models, enabling more reliable and adaptive scientific sensing systems.

Baldi, Tommaso [Pisa, Scuola Normale Superiore]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Converting sWeights to probabilities with density ratios

The use of machine learning approaches continues to have many benefits in experimental nuclear and particle physics. One common issue is generating training data which is sufficiently realistic to give reliable results. Here we advocate using real experimental data as the source of training data and demonstrate how one might subtract background contributions through the use of probabilistic weights which can be readily applied to training data. The sPlot formalism is a common tool used to isolate distributions from different sources. However, the negative sWeights produced by the sPlot technique can cause training problems and poor predictive power. This article demonstrates how density ratio estimation can be applied to convert sWeights to event probabilities, which we call drWeights. The drWeights can then be applied to produce the distributions of interest and are consistent with direct use of the sWeights. This article will also show how decision trees are particularly well suited to convert sWeights, with the benefit of fast prediction rates and adaptability to aspects of experimental data such as the data sample size and proportions of different event sources. We also show that a density ratio product approach in which the initial drWeights are reweighted by an additional converter gives substantially better results.

Glazier, Derek I. [Univ. of Glasgow, Scotland (Uni↗

NASA NTRS1991

From biological neural networks to thinking machines: Transitioning biological organizational principles to computer technology

The three-dimensional organization of the vestibular macula is under study by computer assisted reconstruction and simulation methods as a model for more complex neural systems. One goal of this research is to transition knowledge of biological neural network architecture and functioning to computer technology, to contribute to the development of thinking computers. Maculas are organized as weighted neural networks for parallel distributed processing of information. The network is characterized by non-linearity of its terminal/receptive fields. Wiring appears to develop through constrained randomness. A further property is the presence of two main circuits, highly channeled and distributed modifying, that are connected through feedforward-feedback collaterals and biasing subcircuit. Computer simulations demonstrate that differences in geometry of the feedback (afferent) collaterals affects the timing and the magnitude of voltage changes delivered to the spike initiation zone. Feedforward (efferent) collaterals act as voltage followers and likely inhibit neurons of the distributed modifying circuit. These results illustrate the importance of feedforward-feedback loops, of timing, and of inhibition in refining neural network output. They also suggest that it is the distributed modifying network that is most involved in adaptation, memory, and learning. Tests of macular adaptation, through hyper- and microgravitational studies, support this hypothesis since synapses in the distributed modifying circuit, but not the channeled circuit, are altered. Transitioning knowledge of biological systems to computer technology, however, remains problematical.

Ross, Muriel D.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dial

A key step in almost all scientific endeavors is answering the question: Given this data I already collected, what new data do I expect will yield the most useful information toward my scientific objective? The area of (sequential) experimental design has long been investigating answers to this question, but in recent years techniques from the machine learning subfield of active learning are increasingly applied. Researchers need a simple software tool for active learning applied to experimental design that can easily integrate into their existing workflows. This computer code, Dial, provides a microservice in ORNL's INTERSECT ecosystem for active learning applied to experimental design. By being part of the INTERSECT ecosystem, Dial is simple to integrate into any INTERSECT-based workflow. Dial provides multiple backend options, where a backend is an implementation of a specific active learning method. Users can select the backend that performs best for their application. Developers can also add new backends as needed. At its core, Dial receives a set of pre-existing measurements and input parameter bounds and then recommends one or more new sets of parameters to measure. Dial also includes interfaces to other microservices in the INTERSECT ecosystem so that it can be incorporated into INTERSECT campaigns. Dial provides a simple, yet powerful interface to convert automated INTERSECT workflows into autonomous workflows that adapt based on the results that are obtained. A shared microservice for active learning prevents duplicated effort by each application team implementing its own adaptive design of experiments tool.

Drane, Lance [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)↗