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At least 325 records · Page 18

Aggregating Confidence: A Problem and A Solution

This paper has two main purposes: to articulate a concern about assessing arguments based on confidence; and to provide an assessment procedure which takes this concern into account. The concern is that confidence is a tricky notion for non-deductive Arguments: doubts inherent in Reasoning coalesces with doubts inherent in Premises. And, within a Compound Argument, this may happen many times over, thus accumulating in unpredictable ways. We explain two procedures we have developed to help address the concern in a methodical way.

language↗

Multidimensional Data Aggregation in the Cloud with Application to Geostationary Satellite-based Air Quality Monitoring

Scientists use satellite data for studying Earth's systems, and the remote sensing data that these satellites collect are typically separated into files of a size small enough for efficient network transfer and storage. However, researchers usually prefer to analyze the data based on real-world dimensions like time, space, or elevation. To help with this, NASA's Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC) developed a new cloud-based tool that combines these smaller data chunks into larger, more useful datasets. The tool works on Network Common Data Form (netCDF4) and some HDF5 formatted files, and it is available as a service in NASA's Earthdata Cloud. In this presentation, we showcase this service using data from the Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) instrument. By combining TEMPO's continuous observations over time, we create longer and more informative analysis-ready time series to facilitate the study of air quality patterns. Insights gained will provide a more comprehensive understanding of pollution sources, transport patterns, and their effects on the environment and human health.

Daniel Kaufman↗

Constraining the Surface Exposure Age of Asteroid Bennu Using Cosmogenic Radionuclides in an OSIRIS-REx Aggregate Sample and Individual Particles

Observations by NASA’s OSIRIS-REx spacecraft of asteroid Bennu revealed evidence that this small rubble-pile asteroid experiences several active surface processes that likely control its recent surface exposure history. In October 2020, the spacecraft collected a surface sample from a relatively young ~20 m diameter crater (Hokioi) on asteroid Bennu, and the sample was successfully delivered to Earth on September 24, 2023. Based on the population of craters >50 m diameter, Bennu’s surface is 0.1–1 Ga old, but the old surface is affected by recent processes including smaller meteoroid impacts, mass movement, and particle ejections. The sampling location within Hokioi crater was selected based on its relatively flat surface devoid of large boulders, but the crater floor is also believed to be one of the youngest surfaces on asteroid Bennu, with an age of <100 kyr. As the crater is ~2 m deep, the samples that were collected by OSIRIS-REx may have been relatively shielded from cosmic rays during most of its recent history. This scenario is different from the samples that were collected by Hayabusa2 from asteroid Ryugu, where cosmogenic noble gas and radionuclides indicate cosmic-ray exposure (CRE) ages of ~5 Myr near the surface. Our goal is to understand the recent exposure history of surface samples of asteroid Bennu utilizing radionuclides ( 10 Be, 26 Al, 36 Cl, 41 Ca) produced by both galactic (GCR) and solar (SCR) cosmic rays. With half- lives ranging from 0.1 to 1.36 million years (Myr), the concentrations of these cosmogenic nuclides provide information on the duration and exposure conditions (irradiation depth) of these samples on a timescale of a few Myr. This work will test one of the OSIRIS-REx mission’s driving hypotheses about asteroid Bennu’s recent evolution: that Hokioi crater is part of a population of small (25 m) spectrally red craters on Bennu that are less than 0.1 Myr old.

K. C. Welten↗

Delivery-Risk-Aware Flexibility Scheduling and Dispatch for Aggregated Flexible Loads

Flexible loads like smart thermostats and water heaters can shift energy consumption and provide flexibility to the grid. However, this flexibility is dependent on occupant behavior and can lead to delivery risk, which causes utilities and grid operations to consider them as unreliable for purposes of grid operation. To date, they have not been well integrated into wholesale electricity markets or ancillary service offerings. With proper consideration of uncertainty and risk, these resources can be one of the most cost-effective sources of flexibility. This work uses stochastic optimization to quantify and bid flexibility from a fleet of flexible resources while considering their delivery risk.

DER↗

Modeling the Growth Rates of Tetragonal Lysozyme Crystal Faces

The measured macroscopic growth rates of the (110) and (101) faces of tetragonal lysozyme show an unexpectedly complex dependence on the supersaturation. The growth rates decay asymptotically to zero when the supersaturation is lowered to zero and increase rapidly when the supersaturation is increased. When supersaturations are increased still further the growth rates attain a maximum before starting to decrease. However, growth of these crystals is known to proceed by the classical dislocation and 2D nucleation growth mechanisms. This anomaly can be explained if growth is assumed to occur not by monomer units but by lysozyme aggregates. Analysis of the molecular packing of these crystals revealed that they were constructed of strongly bonded 4(sub 3) helices, while weaker bonds were responsible for binding the helices to each other. It follows that during crystal growth the stronger bonds are formed before the weaker ones. Thus, the growth of these crystals could be viewed as a two step process: aggregate growth units corresponding to the 4(sub 3) helix are first formed in the bulk solution by stronger intermolecular bonds and then attached to the crystal face by weaker bonds on dislocation hillocks or 2D islands. This will lead to a distribution of aggregates in the solution with monomers and lower order aggregates being predominant at low supersaturations and higher order aggregates being predominant at high supersaturations. If the crystal grows mostly by higher order aggregates, such as tetramers and octamers, it would explain the anomalous dependence of the growth rates on the supersaturation. Besides the analysis of molecular packing, a comprehensive analysis of the measured (110) and (101) growth rates was also undertaken in this study. The distribution of aggregates in lysozyme nutrient solutions at various solution conditions were determined from reversible aggregation reactions at equilibrium. The supersaturation was defined for each aggregate species with respect to its concentration at saturation in order to apply growth rate models to this process. The measured growth rates were then compared with the predicted ones from several dislocation and 2D nucleation growth models, employing tetramer and octamer growth units in polydisperse solutions and monomer units in monodisperse solutions. For the (110) face, the calculations consistently showed that the measured growth rates followed the expected model relations with octamer growth units. For the (101) face, it is not possible to obtain a clear agreement between the predicted and measured growth rates for a single growth unit as done for the (110) face. However, the calculations do indicate that the average size of the growth unit is between a tetramer and an octamer. This suggests that tetramers, octamers and other intermediate size growth units all participate in the growth process for this face. These calculations show that it is possible to model the macroscopic protein crystal growth rates if the molecular level processes can be account for, particularly protein aggregation processes in the bulk solution. Our recent investigations of tetragonal lysozyme crystals employing high resolution atomic force microscopy scans have further confirmed the growth of these crystals by aggregate growth units corresponding to 4(sub 3) helices.

Li, Meirong↗

"Electrostructural Phase Changes" In Charged Particulate Clouds: Planetary and Astrophysical Implications

There is empirical evidence that freely-suspended triboelectrostatically charged particulate clouds of dielectric materials undergo rapid conversion from (nominally) monodispersed "aerosols" to a system of well-defined grain aggregates after grain motion or fluid turbulence ceases within the cloud. In United States Microgravity Laboratory Space Shuttle experiments USML-1 and USML-2, it was found that ballistically-energized grain dispersions would rapidly convert into populations of filamentary aggregates after natural fluid (air) damping of grain motion. Unless continuously disrupted mechanically, it was impossible to maintain a non-aggregated state for the grain clouds of sand-size materials. Similarly, ground- based experiments with very fine dust-size material produced the same results: rapid, impulsive "collapse" of the dispersed grains into well-defined filamentary structures. In both ground-based and microgravity experiments, the chains or filaments were created by long-range dipole electrostatic forces and dipole-induced dielectric interactions, not by monopole interactions. Maintenance of the structures was assisted by short-range static boundary adhesion forces and van der Waals interactions. When the aggregate containers in the USML experiments were disturbed after aggregate formation, the quiescently disposed filaments would rearrange themselves into fractal bundles and tighter clusters as a result of enforced encounters with one another. The long-range dipole interactions that bring the grains together into aggregates are a product of randomly-distributed monopole charges on the grain surfaces. In computer simulations, it has been shown that when the force vectors of all the random charges (of both sign) on a grain are resolved mathematically by assuming Coulombic interaction between them, the net result is a dipole moment on individual grains, even though the grains are electrically neutral insofar as there is no predominance, on their surface, of one charge sign over another. The random charges of both sign derive from natural grain-to-grain interactions that produce triboelectrification via charge exchange every time grain surfaces make contact with one another. The conversion from a random distribution of grains (upon which there are randomly distributed charges) into an organization of electrostatically-ordered aggregates, can be regarded (within the framework of granular-material science) as an "electrical or Coulombic phase change" of the particulate cloud. It is not totally dissimilar from the more normal phase-change concept in which, for example, a gas with long free-path-molecules suddenly becomes a solid as a result of structural ordering of the molecules (notably, also the result of electronic forces, albeit at a different scale). In both the gas-to-solid case, and the aerosol-to-aggregate case, the same materials and charges are present before and after the phase change, but their arrangement now has a higher degree of order and a lower-energy configuration. An input of energy into the system is required to reverse the situation. The aggregates in the USML experiments were observed to undergo at least two phase changes as noted above. The point about phase changes, and by implication, the "electrostructural" reorganizations in particulate clouds, is the following: (a) they can occur very rapidly, almost spontaneously, above a critical cloud density, (b) in going from a higher energy state to a lower energy state, they convert to a denser system, (c) energy must be required to reverse the situation, implying that energy is released during the high-to-low energy phase change. In applying this information to natural particulate clouds, some inferences can be made (it is stressed that reference is still to dielectric materials attracted by dipole forces). There are several natural settings to which the USML observations apply, and to which the phase-change implications likewise apply. Dense clouds of triboelectrically-charged, kinetically-energized grains are to be found in volcanic eruptions (particularly on earth), aeolian dust storms (particularly on Mars), meteorite impact ejecta curtains (on all planets), in "immature" debris rings around planets (e.g., that from which our own Moon may have condensed), and in gravitationally collapsing protoplanetary dust/planetesimal debris disks where dielectric granules are being increasingly brought into collisional relationships with one another (increasing both charge exchange and physical proximity). It is noted that in many of these cases, the degree of electrical charging on the grains is likely to be much higher than that in the USML experiments where charging was not enhanced above the "normal", naturally encountered level for the particular materials (quartz, glass, and various silicate minerals). Application of the phase-change concept suggests that volcanic, aeolian, and impact debris clouds may, under certain circumstances, undergo rapid, impulsive, or even catastrophic collapse into a denser state that will lead to rapid precipitation or fall-out of suspended particulates. Although this idea has been suggested previously by the author , the phase change concept possibly permits some new insights into cloud-system behavior. For example, in a protoplanetary debris disk, the work of gravity may suddenly be enhanced by electrostatically driven collapse of the system when materials reach a critical intergranular spacing or grain number density. This might reduce the rate of planet formation by orders of magnitude (considering the ratio of g-forces to electrostatic ones for very small grains in close proximity), and indeed, it might drive the collapse into a system configuration that would perhaps not be created by gravity alone. Additional information is contained in the original.

Marshall, J. R.↗