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DOE OSTI2025

A Model Intercomparison Study of Aerosol‐Cloud‐Turbulence Interactions in a Cloud Chamber: 1. Model Results

This study presents the first model intercomparison of aerosol‐cloud‐turbulence interactions in a controlled cloudy Rayleigh‐Bénard Convection chamber environment, utilizing the Pi Chamber at Michigan Technological University. We analyzed simulated cloud chamber‐averaged statistics of microphysics and thermodynamics in a warm‐phase, cloudy environment under steady‐state conditions at varying aerosol injection rates. Simulation results from seven distinct models (DNS, LES, and a 1D turbulence model) were compared. Our findings demonstrate that while all models qualitatively capture observed trends in droplet number concentration, mean radius, and droplet size distributions at both high and low aerosol injection rates, significant quantitative differences were observed. Notably, droplet number concentrations varied by over two orders of magnitude between models for the same injection rates, indicating sensitivities to the model treatments in droplet activation and removal and wall fluxes. Furthermore, inconsistencies in vertical relative humidity profiles and in achieving steady‐state liquid water content suggest the need for further investigation into the mechanisms driving these variations. Despite these discrepancies, the models generally reproduced consistent power‐law relationships between the microphysical variables. This model intercomparison underscores the importance of controlled cloud chamber experiments for validating and improving cloud microphysical parameterizations. Recommendations for future modeling studies are also highlighted, including constraining wall conditions and processes, investigating droplet/aerosol removal (including sidewall losses), and conducting simplified experiments to isolate specific processes contributing to model divergence and reduce model uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving GCM Representation of Convective Cloud Microphysics by Using ARM Raman Lidar and Cloud Radar Observations

The overall objective of this Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric System Research (ASR) funded project is to improve the representation of convective cloud microphysics in global climate models (GCMs) and check it by comparing the model simulations with observations. We have derived the cloud ice water content by synthesizing ARM Raman lidar (RL) and cloud radar observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites. Noting that the simulated anvil clouds in terms of their macro- and micro-physical properties are sensitive to the parameterization of convective microphysical processes, observed ice water content in anvil clouds provides a useful constraint on these parameterizations. We have improved the convective microphysics parameterization scheme by (1) considering sedimentation for cloud ice crystals that do not fall in the original scheme, (2) applying a new terminal velocity parameterization that depends on the environmental conditions for convective snow, (3) adding a new hydrometeor category, “rimed ice,” to the original four-class (cloud liquid, cloud ice, rain, and snow) scheme, and (4) allowing convective clouds to detrain snow particles into stratiform clouds. We have examined the impact of improved convective cloud microphysics parameterization on the simulated global climate from GCM simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Binomial Stochastic Framework for Efficiently Modeling Discrete Statistics of Convective Populations

Abstract Understanding the coupling between convective clouds and the general circulation, as well as addressing the gray zone problem in convective parameterization, requires insight into the genesis and maintenance of spatial patterns in cumulus cloud populations. In this study, a simple toy model for recreating populations of interacting convective objects as distributed over a two‐dimensional Eulerian grid is formulated to this purpose. Key elements at the foundation of the model include i) a fully discrete formulation for capturing discrete behavior in convective properties at small population sample sizes, ii) object age‐dependence for representing life‐cycle effects, and iii) a prognostic number budget allowing for object interactions and co‐existence of multiple species. A primary goal is to optimize the computational efficiency of this system. To this purpose the object birth rate is represented stochastically through a spatially aware Bernoulli process. The same binomial stochastic operator is applied to horizontal advection of objects, conserving discreteness in object number. The applicability to atmospheric convection as well as behavior implied by the formulation is assessed. Various simple applications of the BiOMi model (Binomial Objects on Microgrids) are explored, suggesting that important convective behavior can be captured at low computational cost. This includes i) subsampling effects and associated powerlaw scaling in the convective gray zone, ii) stochastic predator‐prey behavior, iii) the downscale turbulent energy cascade, and iv) simple forms of spatial organization and convective memory. Consequences and opportunities for convective parameterization in next‐generation weather and climate models are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Achieving Realistic Runoff in the Western United States with a Land Surface Model Forced by Dynamically Downscaled Meteorology

Abstract In this study, we calibrate a regional climate model’s (RCM) underlying land surface model (LSM). In addition to providing a realistic representation of runoff across the hydroclimatically diverse western United States, this is done to take advantage of the RCM’s ability to physically resolve meteorological forcing data in ungauged regions, and to prepare the calibrated hydrologic model for tight coupling, or the ability to represent land surface–atmosphere interactions, with the RCM. Specifically, we use a 9-km resolution meteorological forcing dataset across the western United States, from the fifth generation ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5) downscaled by the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model, as an offline forcing for Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP). We detail the steps involved in producing an LSM capable of accurately representing runoff, including physical parameterization selection, parameter calibration, and regionalization to ungauged basins. Based on our model evaluation from 1954 to 2021 for 586 basins with daily natural streamflow, the streamflow bias is reduced from 24.2% to 4.4%, and the median daily Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) is improved from 0.12 to 0.36. When validating against basins with monthly natural streamflow data, we obtain a similar reduction in bias and a median monthly NSE improvement from 0.18 to 0.56. In this study, we also discover the optimal setup when using a donor-basin method to regionalize parameters to ungauged basins, which can vary by 0.06 NSE for unique designs of this regionalization method. Significance Statement This study provides useful guidance for improving a land surface model to accurately represent runoff across a spatially extensive and hydroclimatically diverse region (the western United States). The land surface model is updated to represent runoff more accurately at gauged basins, and then additionally updated for basins without observational data using a mathematical approach called the donor-basin method. We make use of a regional climate model’s reanalysis-derived meteorological data and its underlying land surface model to achieve realistic runoff. The calibrated land surface model can thus be tightly coupled in subsequent studies in a manner that should more accurately reflect runoff conditions. Findings from this study will serve as a useful reference for the atmospheric (and hydrologic) modeling communities and their ability to represent large-scale hydrology accurately.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Scale‐Adaptive Urban Hydrologic Framework: Incorporating Network‐Level Storm Drainage Pipes Representation

Abstract Below‐ground urban stormwater networks (BUSNs) significantly influence urban flood dynamics, yet their representation at the watershed or larger scales remains challenging. We introduce a scalable urban hydrologic framework that centers on a novel network‐level BUSN representation, balancing the needs for physical basis, parameter parsimony, and computational efficiency. Our framework conceptualizes an urban watershed into four interacting zones: hillslopes (natural), storm‐sewersheds (urban), a sub‐network channel (tributaries), and a main channel. We develop an innovative Graph Theory‐based algorithm to derive network‐level BUSN parameters from publicly available datasets, enabling efficient, scalable parameterization. We demonstrate this framework's applicability at nine representative watersheds in the Houston metropolitan region, USA, with urban imperviousness ranging from 0% to 64% and drainage areas ranging from 24 to 302 . Our model achieves satisfying computational efficiency, completing hourly time step simulations for 18 years in less than 5 sec per watershed on a standard PC. Validation against observed daily streamflow confirms that the model can capture small‐to‐large flood peaks and seasonal and annual water balance over these watersheds. Comparisons with the National Water Model show better performance in predicting flood peaks and overall water balance, underscoring the promises of our new framework for urban hydrologic modeling at large scales. Furthermore, analysis reveals nonlinear relationships between BUSNs' designed capacities and flood reduction effects. Our approach bridges the gap between detailed hydraulic and large‐scale hydrologic models, providing a valuable tool for urban flood prediction and management across broader spatial and temporal scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Meso- to microscale modeling of atmospheric stability effects on wind turbine wake behavior in complex terrain

Abstract. Terrain-induced flow phenomena modulate wind turbine performance and wake behavior in ways that are not adequately accounted for in typical wind turbine wake and wind plant design models. In this work, we simulate flow over two parallel ridges with a wind turbine on one of the ridges, focusing on conditions observed during the Perdigão field campaign in 2017. Two case studies are selected to be representative of typical flow conditions at the site, including the effects of atmospheric stability: a stable case where a mountain wave occurs (as in ∼ 50 % of the nights observed) and a convective case where a recirculation zone forms in the lee of the ridge with the turbine (as occurred over 50 % of the time with upstream winds normal to the ridgeline). We use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), dynamically downscaled from the mesoscale (6.75 km resolution) to microscale large-eddy simulation (LES) at 10 m resolution, where a generalized actuator disk (GAD) wind turbine parameterization is used to simulate turbine wakes. We compare the WRF–LES–GAD model results to data from meteorological towers, lidars, and a tethered lifting system, showing good qualitative and quantitative agreement for both case studies. Significantly, the wind turbine wake shows different amounts of vertical deflection from the terrain and persistence downstream in the two stability regimes. In the stable case, the wake follows the terrain along with the mountain wave and deflects downwards by nearly 100 m below hub height at four rotor diameters downstream. In the convective case, the wake deflects above the recirculation zone over 40 m above hub height at the same downstream distance. Overall, the WRF–LES–GAD model is able to capture the observed behavior of the wind turbine wakes, demonstrating the model's ability to represent wakes over complex terrain for two distinct and representative atmospheric stability classes, and, potentially, to improve wind turbine siting and operation in hilly landscapes.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Decadal Hybrid GCM Simulation Using Deep‐Learning‐Based Cloud and Convection Parameterization Generalized to a Warm Climate

A critical challenge for machine‐learning (ML) parameterization in global climate models (GCMs) is to achieve stable, accurate simulations under climates not seen during training. Previous studies have demonstrated promising offline performance and year‐long online stability in aquaplanet simulations but have encountered difficulties in real geography and under climate warming. Here we report that a GCM with real geography configuration using neural‐network‐based cloud and convection parameterization, trained exclusively with present‐day climate data, successfully performs a stable, decade‐long simulation of a warm climate with +4 K sea surface temperature (SST). The neural network (NN) is based on Han et al. (2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ms003508 ) with additional inputs. The simulation captures the global precipitation distribution, surface temperatures, vertical atmospheric structures, and extreme precipitation very well, closely matching simulations from both the superparameterized CAM (SPCAM) and the conventional CAM5 in the warm climate without accuracy degradation compared to those in the baseline climate. Moreover, it produces a climate response to +4 K SST in atmospheric thermodynamic states and circulations similar to those from SPCAM and CAM5. Prognostic ablation tests on NN input variables show that the NN without convective memory as input suffers from numerical instability, and the NN without considering radiative variables and land fraction as input, or with reduced training samples produce less accurate results. To our knowledge, this is the first time an ML parameterization successfully achieves online extrapolation to a warm climate without using additional warm‐climate data for training. It demonstrates the potential of ML‐driven parameterizations for credible long‐term climate projections.

Atmosphere model↗
DOE OSTI2023

A new process-based and scale-aware desert dust emission scheme for global climate models – Part I: Description and evaluation against inverse modeling emissions

Desert dust accounts for most of the atmosphere's aerosol burden by mass and produces numerous important impacts on the Earth system. However, current global climate models (GCMs) and land-surface models (LSMs) struggle to accurately represent key dust emission processes, in part because of inadequate representations of soil particle sizes that affect the dust emission threshold, surface roughness elements that absorb wind momentum, and boundary-layer characteristics that control wind fluctuations. Furthermore, because dust emission is driven by small-scale (~ 1 km or smaller) processes, simulating the global cycle of desert dust in GCMs with coarse horizontal resolutions (~ 100 km) presents a fundamental challenge. This representation problem is exacerbated by dust emission fluxes scaling nonlinearly with wind speed above a threshold wind speed that is sensitive to land-surface characteristics. Here, we address these fundamental problems underlying the simulation of dust emissions in GCMs and LSMs by developing improved descriptions of (1) the effect of soil texture on the dust emission threshold, (2) the effects of nonerodible roughness elements (both rocks and green vegetation) on the surface wind stress, and (3) the effects of boundary-layer turbulence on driving intermittent dust emissions. We then use the resulting revised dust emission parameterization to simulate global dust emissions in a standalone model forced by reanalysis meteorology and land-surface fields. We further propose (4) a simple methodology to rescale lower-resolution dust emission simulations to match the spatial variability of higher-resolution emission simulations in GCMs. The resulting dust emission simulation shows substantially improved agreement against regional dust emissions observationally constrained by inverse modeling. We thus find that our revised dust emission parameterization can substantially improve dust emission simulations in GCMs and LSMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Forecasting Remote Atmospheric Responses to Decadal Kuroshio Stability Transitions

Based on observational estimates and global ocean eddy-resolving coupled retrospective initialized predictions, we show that Kuroshio Extension variability affects rainfall variability along the west coast of North America. We show that the teleconnection between the current undulations and downstream rainfall can lead to improved subseasonal to seasonal predictions of precipitation over California, and we demonstrate that capturing these teleconnections requires coupled systems with sufficient ocean resolution (i.e., eddy-resolving), especially over time scales longer than one season. The improved forecast skill is diagnosed in terms of 35 years of retrospective initialized ensemble forecasts with an ocean eddy-resolving and an ocean eddy-parameterized coupled model. Not only does the ocean eddy-resolving model show sensitivity to Kuroshio Extension variability in terms of western North America precipitation, but the ocean eddy-resolving forecasts also show improved forecast skill compared to the ocean eddy-parameterized model. Additionally, the ocean eddy-parameterized coupled model shows no sensitivity to Kuroshio Extension variability. We also find near-decadal variability associated with a progression of a lower-tropospheric height dipole around the North Pacific and how these height anomalies lead to wind-driven Rossby waves that affect the eddy activity in the Kuroshio Extension with a time lag on the order of four years. This decadal-scale variability (~10 years) opens the possibility of multiyear predictability of western North American rainfall.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dataset for "Bioaerosols are the dominant source of warm-temperature immersion-mode INPs and drive uncertainties in INP predictability

Ice nucleating particles (INPs) are a rare subset of atmospheric aerosol that can initiate primary ice formation and thus trigger cloud glaciation. The re is a significant gap between our ability to measure INPs and to predict their concentrations and variability in large-scale weather and climate models. Accurate simulation of I NPs requires simulation of their major particle sources, as well as representative parameterizations of IN efficiency. Thus, there is a need for measurements of INP concentrations , delineated by particle type, to validate and improve model prediction of INP concentrations. Here we present a novel method for speciating INP concentrations into the relative c ontributions from dust, sea spray aerosol (SSA), and bioaerosol using single particle measurements. In a field campaign at Bodega Bay (coastal California), we find that bioaerosol s were the primary source of INPs between -12 and -20 ?C, while dust was a relatively minor source and SSA did not contribute significantly. We show that recent INP parameterizati ons for dust and SSA accurately predict ambient INP concentrations for these particle types. Finally, we use the speciated INP concentrations to evaluate the simulation of INPs at Bodega Bay, using a Lagrangian approach to connect the locally-observed aerosol with regionally-widespread emissions parameterizations. We find that we can skillfully simulate du st and SSA INPs, but not bioaerosol INPs. This points to a need for additional research to identify the major factors controlling the emissions and INP efficiency of bioaerosol IN Ps in order to develop improved parameterizations and enable their improved representation in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

An evaluation of the E3SMv1 Arctic ocean and sea-ice regionally refined model

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is a state-of-the-science Earth system model (ESM) with the ability to focus horizontal resolution of its multiple components in specific areas. Regionally refined global ESMs are motivated by the need to explicitly resolve, rather than parameterize, relevant physics within the regions of refined resolution, while offering significant computational cost savings relative to the respective cost of configurations with high-resolution (HR) everywhere on the globe. In this paper, we document results from the first Arctic regionally refined E3SM configuration for the ocean and sea-ice components (E3SM-Arctic-OSI), while employing data-based atmosphere, land, and hydrology components. Our aim is an improved representation of the Arctic coupled ocean and sea-ice state, its variability and trends, and the exchanges of mass and property fluxes between the Arctic and the sub-Arctic. We find that E3SM-Arctic-OSI increases the realism of simulated Arctic ocean and sea-ice conditions compared to a similar low-resolution E3SM simulation without the Arctic regional refinement in ocean and sea-ice components (E3SM-LR-OSI). In particular, exchanges through the main Arctic gateways are greatly improved with respect to E3SM-LR-OSI. Other aspects, such as the Arctic freshwater content variability and sea-ice trends, are also satisfactorily simulated. Yet, other features, such as the upper-ocean stratification and the sea-ice thickness distribution, need further improvements, involving either more advanced parameterizations, model tuning, or additional grid refinements. Overall, E3SM-Arctic-OSI offers an improved representation of the Arctic system relative to E3SM-LR-OSI, at a fraction (15 %) of the computational cost of comparable global high-resolution configurations, while permitting exchanges with the lower-latitude oceans that cannot be directly accounted for in Arctic regional models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Toward Understanding the Differences between Mesoscale and Large-Eddy Simulations of Tropical Cyclones

In this work, we investigate the ability of mesoscale and large-eddy simulation (LES) model configurations to predict the mean wind speed profile within the boundary layer of tropical cyclones (TCs). To this end, we perform idealized simulations of five hypothetical intense storms ranging from categories 1 to 5 on the Saffir–Simpson scale and extract time-averaged quantities near the eyewall region. We compare the model-generated data against mean wind speed profiles compiled from dropsondes launched from reconnaissance aircraft operating in the North Atlantic basin. Our analysis shows that mesoscale- and LES-generated mean wind fields display important differences in the boundary layer, including the magnitude of shear as well as the height where their low-level wind speed maxima are located. In addition, a comparison between the two model configurations with the dropsonde data shows that both modeling approaches are unable to capture the typical structure of mean winds in the lower part of the TC boundary layer (10–500 m), calling into question the use of simulations of near-axisymmetric storms for investigating the wind structure of past events. To better understand these differences, we conduct a momentum-budget analysis and show that modeled turbulent fluxes are underestimated in the mesoscale boundary layer parameterization compared to the LES model. Based on the analysis of the horizontal turbulent fluxes and their potential impact on mean flow quantities, a TC-specific boundary layer parameterization may be needed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Autoconversion Representation in E3SMv2 Using an Ensemble of Large-Eddy Simulations of Low-Level Warm Clouds

In numerical atmospheric models that treat cloud and rain droplet populations as separate condensate categories, precipitation initiation in warm clouds is often represented by an autoconversion rate (Au), which is the rate of formation of new rain droplets through the collisions of cloud droplets. Being a function of the cloud droplet size distribution (DSD), the local Au is commonly parameterized as a function of DSD moments: cloud droplet number (n c ) and mass (q c ) concentrations. When applied in a large-scale model, the grid-mean Au must also include a correction, or enhancement factor, to account for the horizontal variability of the cloud properties across the model grid. In this study, we evaluate the Au representation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) climate model using large-eddy simulations (LES), which explicitly resolve cloud droplet spectra, and therefore the local Au, as well as its spatial variability. The analysis of an ensemble of warm low-level cloud cases shows that the E3SMv2 formulation represents the Au reasonably well compared to the horizontally averaged explicitly computed rate from LES. The agreement, however, comes from a combination of an underestimated E3SM-tuned local Au rate and an overestimated subgrid cloud variability enhancement factor. The latter bias is traced to neglecting the horizontal variability of n c and its co-variability with q c in parameterizing the grid-mean Au.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Description of the Three-Dimensional Large-Scale Forcing Data from the 3D Constrained Variational Analysis (VARANAL3D)

This technical report introduces a Three-Dimensional Constrained Variational Analysis (3DCVA) (Tang and Zhang 2015) and its product of three-dimensional large-scale forcing data to drive single-column models (SCM), cloud-resolving models (CRM), and large-eddy simulation (LES) models, and to evaluate model results. The 3DCVA algorithm is an extension of the original 1D constrained variational analysis (1DCVA) (Zhang and Lin 1997, Zhang et al. 2001). The three-dimensional structure of the forcing data allows studies of spatial variation of the large-scale forcing fields and tests of physical parameterizations across scales. In the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility, the 3D forcing data are assigned the datastream name varanal3d. In this technical report, 3DCVA will be used to refer to the algorithm, while VARANAL3D will be used to refer to the data product.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Macro-physical Properties of Shallow Cumulus from Integrated ARM Observations (Final Report)

Fair-weather shallow cumuli (ShCu) play an important role in many climate-related processes. Irregular geometry of ShCu and their strong temporal and spatial variability make it challenging to observe ShCu holistically and to represent them correctly in climate models. To improve ShCu parameterizations, information on both vertically and horizontally resolved cloud properties is required. Commonly, the vertically resolved cloud properties are provided by zenith pointing lidar-radar observations with a very narrow field of view (FOV). Thus, these “pencil-beam” properties may not be representative of a larger surrounding area. Limited number of areal-averaged cloud properties, such as fractional sky cover (FSC), are offered typically by wide-FOV observations. The main goal of our project was to integrate advantages of the narrow-FOV (vertical structure of clouds) and wide-FOV (spatial arrangement of clouds) observations for an improved characterization of single-layer ShCu observed at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site for an 18-yr period (2000-2017). There are four major accomplishments of our project, First, an updated operational cloud classification for days with ShCu has been suggested and evaluated through a detailed comparison with the manually curated records. Our classification extends successfully the latest ARM cloud type Value Added Product (VAP) based on the Active Remote Sensing of Clouds (ARSCL) cloud product by incorporating both cloud fraction (CF) provided by narrow-FOV ceilometer data and FSC from wide-FOV images offered by a Total Sky Imager (TSI). Moreover, our classification allows one to identify impact of instrumentation changes at the SGP site, namely the transition to KAZRARSCL with the updated cloud radar, on the identification of periods with single-layer ShCu. Second, a new approach that resolves cloud area distributions for a given region (up to 4x4 km 2 ) has been suggested and cloud equivalent diameters (CEDs) have been estimated for the first time. These estimations have been performed over a wide range of cloud sizes (about 0.01–3.5 km) with high temporal resolution (30s) using wide-FOV TSI images and cloud base height (CBH) provided by complementary narrow-FOV lidar measurements. Our simple and computationally inexpensive approach offers a previously unavailable dataset for process studies in the convective boundary layer and evaluation of ShCu parameterizations in cloud-resolving models. Third, a long-term integrated record of ShCu macrophysical properties has been developed. The developed record represents the longest available compilation of events with ShCu and includes (i) a novel visualization of the spatial variability in cloud cover both along- and across-wind directions, (ii) updated estimates of narrow-FOV CF and wide-FOV FSC, (iii) updated narrow-FOV CBH, and (iv) complementary data, such as wind speed and direction from the 915-MHz Radar Wind Profiler (RWP) data. The developed record has been used successfully to assess conventional observational estimates of cloud cover and their sensitivity to the following two factors: (i) instrument-dependent cloud detection and data merging criteria and (ii) FOV configuration. Fourth, co-variability of the ShCu macrophysical properties and environmental parameters has been analyzed for a 3-yr period (2016-2018). Our initial analysis includes diurnal changes of FSCs obtained for clouds with small, moderate and large CEDs and several environmental parameters, such as lifted condensation level (LCL) and mixed layer height (zi). Preliminary results of our analysis suggest that the horizontal extent of ShCu is controlled substantially by the sign and magnitude of difference between these two parameters (zi-LCL): the CED tends to grow with increase of this difference (zi exceeds LCL). We have initiated relationships between the ShCu and key atmospheric parameters that control both the development and evolution of ShCu using our new data product, which combines effectively the advantages of narrow-FOV data offered by zenith pointing cloud radars and lidars and wide-FOV TSI images. While the latest instrumentation at the ARM sites may address these challenging relationships in the future, we believe that the historical ARM data at the SGP site has not yet been fully utilized. Overall, our data product can be used by researchers working on a wide range of climate-related projects. These projects may include (i) a comprehensive evaluation of outputs from the Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) and single-column models for their future improvement, (ii) the representativeness of “short-period” results obtained from the previous model and observational studies and (iii) the planning of future field campaigns with focus on improved understanding of the diurnal cycle of cumulus convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving Prediction of Surface Solar Irradiance Variability by Integrating Observed Cloud Characteristics and Machine Learning

A 5-year, 1-minute resolution observational dataset of clouds and solar radiation was produced that includes two metrics of the variability in surface solar irradiance due to cloud type and fractional sky cover. Multiple regression models were trained to fit observations of surface solar irradiance variability from those two cloud property predictors. We found that ensemble tree-based methods, Random Forest and Gradient Boosting Machine, have the least overfitting issues and showed the best performance with an R2 of 0.42. While the observational data trained in this study was only from one site, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Oklahoma, initial comparisons of the seasonality of the statistics suggest that these results are relatively weather regime independent; the generality of such a finding across sites will be tested in future work. The observational data and developed machine learning model are being used to create a numerical weather prediction model parameterization to enable day-ahead solar variability prediction in a computationally efficient way. This is a first step towards creating a new paradigm of predicting day-ahead variability with the potential to provide a new tool to improve grid operation, planning, and resilience.

Riihimaki, Laura↗
DOE OSTI2024

Freezing Processes in Southern Ocean Mixed Phase Clouds (Final Technical Report)

Southern Ocean (SO) low-level clouds remain a challenge for Earth system models to represent accurately. This project utilized DOE ARM observations and the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) to improve process-level understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions and cloud microphysics for SO mixed-phase clouds. Specifically, our efforts include two main topics: 1) investigate the SO aerosol, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and ice nucleating particle (INP) population based on observations and determine predictive skill of simulating SO INPs, and 2) assess the ice formation pathways, including ice nucleation and secondary ice production, in SO mixed phase clouds utilizing a combination of observations and modeling tools. Studies focused on SO aerosol and INP resulted four manuscripts. Ice formation pathways in SO mixed phase clouds were investigated, revealing observed evidence of SIP active across all mixed phase temperatures. However, a key finding of this project is that despite significant progress in predicting SO INPs, the role of INP variability in SO cloud phase, precipitation, and radiative properties remain unknown due to challenges in microphysics parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Benchmark calculations of radiative forcing by greenhouse gases

Changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases lead to changes in radiative fluxes throughout the atmosphere. The value of this change, the instantaneous radiative forcing, varies across climate models, due partly to differences in the distribution of clouds, humidity, and temperature across models, and partly due to errors introduced by approximate treatments of radiative transfer. This paper describes an experiment within the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparision Project that uses benchmark calculations made with line–by–line models to identify parameterization error in the representation of absorption and emission by greenhouse gases. Clear–sky instantaneous forcing by greenhouse gases is computed using a set of 100 profiles, selected from a re–analysis of present–day conditions, that represent the global annual mean forcing from pre–industrial times to the present–day with sampling errors of less than 0.01 W m –2 . Six contributing line–by–line models agree in their estimate of this forcing to within 0.025 W m –2 while even recently–developed parameterizations have typical errors four or more times larger, suggesting both that the samples reveal true differences among line–by–line models and that parameterization error will be readily identifiable. Agreement among line–by–line models is better in the longwave than in the shortwave where differing treatments of the water vapor vapor continuum affect estimates of forcing by carbon dioxide and methane. The impacts of clouds on instantaneous radiative forcing are estimated from climate model simulations. Here, the adjustment due to stratospheric temperature change by assuming fixed dynamical heating. Adjustments are large only for ozone and for carbon dioxide, for which stratospheric cooling introduces modest non–linearity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗