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At least 325 records · Page 18

Analytic Ballistic Performance Model of Whipple Shields

The dual-wall Whipple shield is the shield of choice for lightweight, long-duration flight. The shield uses an initial sacrificial wall to initiate fragmentation and melt an impacting threat that expands over a void before hitting a subsequent shield wall of a critical component. The key parameters to this type of shield are the rear wall and its mass which stops the debris, as well as the minimum pressure generated under threat particle impact of the sacrificial wall and the amount of void that is available for expansion. Ensuring the minimum pressure is sufficiently high to achieve large scale fragmentation/melt of the threat particle enables the expansion of the threat and reduces the momentum flux of the debris on the rear wall. Three key factors in the minimum pressure achieved are the thickness of the sacrificial wall relative to the characteristic dimension of the impacting particle, the density and material cohesion contrast of the sacrificial wall relative to the threat particle and the impact speed. The mass of the rear wall and the sacrificial wall are desirable to minimize for launch costs and dynamic concerns making it important to have an understanding of the effects of density contrast and impact speed. In this paper a fourth key parameter is identified related to fragmentation, which corresponds to the ratio of the size of the projectile relative to the transition from brittle to ductile hole growth in the projectile. Ballistic limit equations have been developed to define the failure limits of a MMOD shield, generally in terms of projectile diameter (or mass), impact velocity, and angle. Within the range of impact velocities relevant for Earth-orbiting spacecraft, three distinct regions of penetration phenomenology have been identified for Whipple shields: center dot Low velocity: the projectile is eroded (and possibly deformed) during its passage through the bumper plate, but is not fragmented. Thus, perforation of the rear wall is by a fragment with a mass and speed equal to or less than the original impactor. center dot Intermediate (shatter) velocity: impact velocities are sufficient to induce projectile fragmentation upon impact with the bumper plate, resulting in a coarse debris cloud with large solid fragments. Increasing velocity within the shatter regime results in increased fragmentation, and eventually melting, of the projectile and bumper fragments, generating a finer and more evenly dispersed debris cloud. Failure of the rear wall is a complicated combination of modes observed at low- and hypervelocity. center dot Hypervelocity: the projectile and holed-out bumper material is completely, or nearly completely, melted and/or vaporized by the initial impact. The resultant debris cloud impacts over a dispersed area of the rear wall, loading it impulsively and inducing failure through rupture or petalling. While each of these regimes are well observed with extensive empirical methods to describe these regions, differences in impactor materials, configurations of shields and questions about the limitations of the attainable impact speeds have left questions that are difficult to answer from completely empirical methods.

Miller, J. E.↗

NASA Capture, Containment, and Return System: Bringing Mars Samples to Earth

The Capture, Containment, and Return System (CCRS) project is NASA’s last step in bringing back Mars samples. CCRS will close a decades-long multi-mission and multi-agency effort to bring Mars surface samples back to Earth for scientific studies. CCRS will launch in 2027 on the European Earth Return Orbiter (ERO) spacecraft, which will provide communications relay for the Mars Sample Return ground missions, Perseverance rover and the Sample Retrieval Lander (SRL) (to be launched in 2028). The main mission for CCRS begins when the first-ever orbital planetary capture operation occurs with CCRS catching and securing the Orbiting Sample (OS)in low Mars orbit. From this point, the system will perform additional "firsts": it will autonomously contain the OS with heat-shrink-fit, sterilize the outside surface, and assemble the Earth entry capsule, named Earth Entry System (EES), in orbit around Mars using a gantry mechanism. At approximately 2.8 Lunar distances from Earth, or 3-days from entry into Earth’s atmosphere, CCRS will open its micrometeoroid shield and release the EES on a ballistic trajectory to Earth. The EES is designed to be a fully passive system that will enter the atmosphere and land without parachute at the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR).

Mars mission, Sample return, Mission design↗

Requirements and Capabilities for Planetary Missions: Mariner Encke Ballistic Flyby 1980

This mission will provide a broad-based fast reconnaissance of comet Encke, building a data base for subsequent more detailed comet investigations, including rendezvous. After a 3 month flight, the spacecraft will encounter the comet at a nominal range of about 500 km. Flyby velocity will be 7 to 28 km/sec depending on choice of arrival data (0 to 35 days before Encke perihelion) and launch vehicle. The spacecraft will be similar to the MVM 73 spacecraft, with scan platform and 117 kbps encounter data rate, and designed to survive the thermal environment of 0.34 to 0.8 AU.

Ball, G. G.↗

Advanced meteoroid and debris shielding concepts

The results of the shielding screening and optimization work conducted at the NASA Johnson Space Center Hypervelocity Impact Research Laboratory (HIRL) are described. The impact tests to investigate and optimize certain aspects of the aluminum mesh double-bumper concept, which was considered the best performer in the screening test, are analyzed. Preliminary results indicate that the aluminum mesh double-bumper concept shows a 30 to 40 percent weight reduction compared to an aluminum Whipple shield in the velocity range study, besides such advantages as an increased resistance to penetration and the fact that the aluminum mesh does not produce damaging secondary ejecta particles. It is suggested that the ballistic protection can be improved even more if an intermediate layer of a high-strength cloth is attached near the rear wall.

Christiansen, Eric L.↗

Propellant development for the Advanced Solid Rocket Motor

The properties of a propellant developed for the NASA Advanced Solid Rocket Motor (ASRM) are described in terms of its composition, performance, and compliance to NASA specifications. The class 1.3 HTPB/AP/A1 propellant employs an ester plasticizer and the content of ballistic solids is set at 88 percent. Ammonia evolution is prevented by the utilization of a neutral bonding agent which allows continuous mixing. The propellant also comprises a bimodal AP blend with one ground fraction, ground AP of at least 20 microns, and ferric oxide to control the burning rate. The propellant's characteristics are discussed in terms of tradeoffs in AP particle size and the types of Al powder, bonding agent, and HTPB polymer. The size and shape of the ballistic solids affect the processability, ballistic properties, and structural properties of the propellant. The revised baseline composition is based on maximizing the robustness of in-process viscosity, structural integrity, and burning-rate tailoring range.

Landers, L. C.↗

Space shuttle SRM interim contract, part 2

The characteristics of the solid rocket propellant for use with the space shuttle rocket engine are discussed. Design ramifications have created different web thicknesses and motor operating pressures which have necessitated small changes in the required propellant burning rate at 1,000 psia. However, the SRM burning rate remains well within the range demonstrated in the Poseidon and Minuteman first stage motors. Any change in propellant burning rate can be accomplished readily by a slight modification in the oxidizer particle size distribution. The ballistic and mechanical properties of the propellant remain unchanged from the baseline (Configuration 0).

Source record↗

Ignition of global wildfires at the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary

The recent discovery of an apparently global soot layer at the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary indicates that global wildfires were somehow ignited by the impact of a comet or asteroid. It is shown here that the thermal radiation produced by the ballistic reentry of ejecta condensed from the vapor plume of the impact could have increased the global radiation flux by factors of 50 to 150 times the solar input for periods ranging from one to several hours. This great increase in thermal radiation may have been responsible for the ignition of global wildfires, as well as having deleterious effects on unprotected animal life.

Melosh, H. J.↗

An Investigation of Terminal Guidance and Control Techniques for a Robotic Mars Lander

Continuing on previous work, various precision landing control algorithms arc examined with the goal of minimizing the landed distance to a specified location on the Mars surface. This study considers a set of points from parachute handoff to touchdown on the surface. The first scenario considers a reverse gravity turn to a hover condition 500 meters above the surface and then uses lateral thrusting to minimize die range to target. The second scenario examines a guided, lifting parachute followed by a powered gravity turn to the targeted landing site. The third scenario considers thrust vectoring while on the ballistic parachute, followed by a reverse gravity turn to touchdown.

Birge, Brian K.↗

Temporary Atmospheres Produced By Human Activities on the Moon

Outgassing from materials, whether through the ascent/descent stages of lunar vehicles, airlock depressurizing, rover or astronaut suit outgassing, may cause an effect of unwanted accumulation of volatiles at the surface and exosphere. This is especially important at (or proximal) to permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) at the lunar poles. Herein, we provide estimates of expected outgassing from various human-landed objects on the Moon, including backpacks, airlocks, rovers, landers, trash and mining operations. Astronaut suits produce some level of oxygen outgassing (Helou et al., 2022), which may transport and condense in these PSRs, even in micro- cold traps (Glavin et al., 2010).We estimate the outgassing from drill mining and trash-to-gas conversion assuming a specific technology is operating. These outgassing systems can create local, temporary atmospheres in the vicinity (∼100 km radius) of the sources. The atmosphere may be particularly high within meters of the source. To obtain column densities for these temporary atmospheres, we first bracket ranges for the gas number loss as a function of time. We then derive the maximum distance traveled and the time the released molecules remain in the exosphere for a single ballistic hop, assuming the molecules are ejected from the surface of the object at its surface temperature. In some cases, such as the astronaut backpack and the rover, the temperature is that of the source. Given this information, an average and peak local exospheric density and column density can be estimated. We find that backpacks, airlock releases, and the Starship lander can create relatively high-density local atmospheres, with local near-lander outgassing water densities exceeding 107/cm3. This local water exosphere is over 106 times greater than the LADEE-derived lower limit of the natural water exosphere at ∼3/cm3. Thus, the anthropogenic temporary water exosphere will likely dominate the environment near the lander, making an assessment of the natural exospheric water environment difficult.

Rosemary M Killen↗

Hyperspectral Imager-Tracker

The Hyperspectral Imager-Tracker (HIT) is a technique for visualization and tracking of low-contrast, fast-moving objects. The HIT architecture is based on an innovative and only recently developed concept in imaging optics. This innovative architecture will give the Light Prescriptions Innovators (LPI) HIT the possibility of simultaneously collecting the spectral band images (hyperspectral cube), IR images, and to operate with high-light-gathering power and high magnification for multiple fast- moving objects. Adaptive Spectral Filtering algorithms will efficiently increase the contrast of low-contrast scenes. The most hazardous parts of a space mission are the first stage of a launch and the last 10 kilometers of the landing trajectory. In general, a close watch on spacecraft operation is required at distances up to 70 km. Tracking at such distances is usually associated with the use of radar, but its milliradian angular resolution translates to 100- m spatial resolution at 70-km distance. With sufficient power, radar can track a spacecraft as a whole object, but will not provide detail in the case of an accident, particularly for small debris in the onemeter range, which can only be achieved optically. It will be important to track the debris, which could disintegrate further into more debris, all the way to the ground. Such fragmentation could cause ballistic predictions, based on observations using high-resolution but narrow-field optics for only the first few seconds of the event, to be inaccurate. No optical imager architecture exists to satisfy NASA requirements. The HIT was developed for space vehicle tracking, in-flight inspection, and in the case of an accident, a detailed recording of the event. The system is a combination of five subsystems: (1) a roving fovea telescope with a wide 30 field of regard; (2) narrow, high-resolution fovea field optics; (3) a Coude optics system for telescope output beam stabilization; (4) a hyperspectral-mutispectral imaging assembly; and (5) image analysis software with effective adaptive spectral filtering algorithm for real-time contrast enhancement.

Agurok, Llya↗

Range Safety Flight Elevation Limit Calculation Software

This program was developed to fill a need within the Wallops Flight Facility workflow for automation of the development of vertical plan limit lines used by flight safety officers during the conduct of expendable launch vehicle missions. Vertical plane present-position-based destruct lines have been used by range safety organizations at numerous launch ranges to mitigate launch vehicle risks during the early phase of flight. Various ranges have implemented data submittal and processing workflows to develop these destruct lines. As such, there is significant prior art in this field. The ElLimits program was developed at NASA's Wallops Flight Facility to automate the process for developing vertical plane limit lines using current computing technologies. The ElLimits program is used to configure launch-phase range safety flight control lines for guided missiles. The name of the program derives itself from the fundamental quantity that is computed - flight elevation limits. The user specifies the extent and resolution of a grid in the vertical plane oriented along the launch azimuth. At each grid point, the program computes the maximum velocity vector flight elevation that can be permitted without endangering a specified back-range location. Vertical plane x-y limit lines that can be utilized on a present position display are derived from the flight elevation limit data by numerically propagating 'streamlines' through the grid. The failure turn and debris propagation simulation technique used by the application is common to all of its analysis options. A simulation is initialized at a vertical plane grid point chosen by the program. A powered flight failure turn is then propagated in the plane for the duration of the so-called RSO reaction time. At the end of the turn, a delta-velocity is imparted, and a ballistic trajectory is propagated to impact. While the program possesses capability for powered flight failure turn modeling, it does not require extensive user inputs of vehicle characteristics (e.g., thrust and aerodynamic data), nor does it require reams of turn data after the traditional fashion of the Air Force ranges. The program requires a nominal trajectory table (time, altitude, range, velocity, and flight elevation) and makes heavy use of it to initialize and model a failure turn.

Lanzi, Raymond J↗

Impact and Penetration of Thin Aluminum 2024 Flat Panels at Oblique Angles of Incidence

The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) are actively involved in improving the predictive capabilities of transient finite element computational methods for application to safety issues involving unintended impacts on aircraft and aircraft engine structures. One aspect of this work involves the development of an improved deformation and failure model for metallic materials, known as the Tabulated Johnson-Cook model, or MAT224, which has been implemented in the LS-DYNA commercial transient finite element analysis code (LSTC Corp., Livermore, CA) (Ref. 1). In this model the yield stress is a function of strain, strain rate and temperature and the plastic failure strain is a function of the state of stress, temperature and strain rate. The failure criterion is based on the accumulation of plastic strain in an element. The model also incorporates a regularization scheme to account for the dependency of plastic failure strain on mesh size. For a given material the model requires a significant amount of testing to determine the yield stress and failure strain as a function of the three-dimensional state of stress, strain rate and temperature. In addition, experiments are required to validate the model. Currently the model has been developed for Aluminum 2024 and validated against a series of ballistic impact tests on flat plates of various thicknesses (Refs. 1 to 3). Full development of the model for Titanium 6Al-4V is being completed, and mechanical testing for Inconel 718 has begun. The validation testing for the models involves ballistic impact tests using cylindrical projectiles impacting flat plates at a normal incidence (Ref. 2). By varying the thickness of the plates, different stress states and resulting failure modes are induced, providing a range of conditions over which the model can be validated. The objective of the study reported here was to provide experimental data to evaluate the model under more extreme conditions, using a projectile with a more complex shape and sharp contacts, impacting flat panels at oblique angles of incidence.

Ruggeri, Charles R.↗

A Comparison of Damaging Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Fluxes in Earth Orbit

Low Earth orbit is populated with a substantial amount of orbital debris, and it is usually assumed that the flux from these objects contributes to most of the hypervelocity particle risk to spacecraft in this region. The meteoroid flux is known to be dominant at very low altitudes (<300 km), where atmospheric drag rapidly removes debris, and at very high altitudes beyond GEO (geostationary), where debris is practically non-existent. The vagueness of these boundaries has prompted this work, in which we compare the fluxes of meteoroids and orbital debris capable of penetrating a millimeter thick aluminum plate for circular orbits with altitudes ranging from the top of the atmosphere to 100,000 km. The outputs from the latest NASA debris and meteoroid models, ORDEM 3.0 and MEMR2, are combined with the modified Cour-Palais ballistic limit equation to make a realistic evaluation of the damage-capable particle fluxes, thereby establishing the relative contributions of hazardous debris and meteoroids in near Earth space.

Cooke, William↗

A Comparison of Damaging Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Fluxes in Earth Orbit

Low Earth orbit is populated with a substantial amount of orbital debris, and it is usually assumed that the flux from these objects contributes to most of the hypervelocity particle risk to spacecraft in this region. The meteoroid flux is known to be dominant at very low altitudes (less than 300 km), where atmospheric drag rapidly removes debris, and at very high altitudes (beyond geostationary), where debris is practically non-existent. The vagueness of these boundaries and repeated questions from spacecraft projects have prompted this work, in which we compare the fluxes of meteoroids and orbital debris capable of producing a millimeter-deep crater in aluminum for circular orbits with altitudes ranging from the top of the atmosphere to 100,000 km. The outputs from the latest NASA debris and meteoroid models, ORDEM 3.0 and MEMR2, are combined with the modified Cour-Palais ballistic limit equation to make a realistic evaluation of the damage-capable particle fluxes, thereby establishing the relative contributions of hazardous debris and meteoroids throughout near-Earth space.

Cooke, William↗

Fragment Size Distribution for Ice Particle Impacts on a Glass Plate

This work presents the results of an experimental study of ice particle impacts on a flat glass plate. The experiment was conducted at the Ballistics Impact Laboratory of NASA Glenn Research Center. The main objective of the experiment was to gain understanding about the modifications needed to the experimental configuration for a future parametric study at a larger range of values for particle diameters and other parameters. This was achieved by studying the effect of the velocity of an impacting ice particle on the post-impact fragment size and distribution for a reduced range of impacting particle diameters. Pre-impact particle diameter and velocity data were captured with a high-speed side camera. Post-impact fragment data were captured in a single frame with a 29-megapixel camera located above and normal to the target. Repeat runs were conducted for ice particles with diameters ranging from 1.7 to 2.9 millimeters, impacting at velocities between 39 and 98 meters per second. The fragment areas were measured, and the corresponding equivalent diameters and histogram distributions were calculated. Analysis of the data showed that the average equivalent diameter for the fragments in a run was an order of magnitude smaller than the diameter of the impacting ice particle. The histograms for equivalent diameter distribution were nonnormal with long tails, with most of the fragments having equivalent diameters concentrated toward the minimum value of the fragment size that could be resolved. Factors affecting the accuracy of the data during the digital imaging analysis were identified. Needed modifications to the setup to handle small size ice particles and other testing conditions were also identified.

engine icing↗

Flight Mechanics Modeling and Simulation of the Earth Entry System

Introduction: The Mars Sample Return (MSR) Campaign being planned by NASA and ESA has the ambitious goal to return Mars samples back to Earth. This international collaboration had developed a concept of operations that included a ESA-designed Earth Return Orbiter (ERO) and NASA-designed Capture, Containment, and Return System (CCRS). The Earth Entry System (EES), consisting of a protective aeroshell that houses the samples as well as sample containment vessels, would conduct entry, descent, and landing (EDL) on a direct Earth trajectory. The EES would enter on a spin-stabilized ballistic trajectory with the goal to passively achieve aerodynamic stability throughout all regions of flight. The EDL sequence would end with the EES impacting the soft playa soil of the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR). As of the submission of this abstract, the MSR campaign is undergoing a re-architecture leading to a pause in EES development. However, the novel approaches developed in flight mechanics modeling and simulation can significantly benefit the greater IPPW community in the development of Earth return vehicles. This paper will present the latest state of EES flight mechanics modeling and simulation. The paper will highlight the simulation architecture developed and key lessons learned from understanding of EDL trajectory sensitivities. Modeling and Simulation: Figure 1 provides a high-level concept of operations for the approach, entry, descent, and landing (AEDL) phase of the CCRS-portion of MSR. The objective of EES flight mechanics is to model and simulate the EES trajectory from ERO separation to ground impact at UTTR. A variety of flight mechanics simulation models were utilized to model both exo-atmopsheric and atmospheric portions of flight. 42, a 6-DOF simulation developed at Goddard Space Flight Center, is utilized for propagating the attitude of EES during exo-atmospheric flight. 42 allows for a variety of spin eject mechanism scenarios to be simulated for analysis. 10 minutes prior to entry, the 42 states are handed off to the EDL sims. The prime EDL sim utilized by EES is the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2), a 6-DOF sim developed at Langley Research Center, and the independent verification and validation EDL sim utilized is DSENDS, a 6-DOF sim developed at Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Figure 2 provides a visualization of the flight mechanics simulation model flow through various points in the AEDL phase. Due to the existence of a variety of sim models, the EES flight mechanics team developed processes for data hand-off. These processes included the development of a centralized coordinate frame document, utilization of a single, centralized simulation input document for all sims to reference, and hand-off files containing both the technical data to be ingested by other flight mechanics sims as well as annotations of modeling assumptions utilized to generate the data. Figure~\ref{fig:post2simarchitecture} provides an overview of the POST2 sim architecture wherein POST2 ingests numerous subsystem models and input files. The dispersed state file generated by MONTE provides the position/velocity state of the trajectory while the 42 Handoff file provides the attitude. The aerodynamics database, delivered by the EES aeroscience team, is utilized to simulate the aerodynamic forces and moments experienced during EDL. A custom atmosphere model, developed by EES atmosphere team, is utilized to simulate the anticipated atmosphere environment around the region of Earth through which the EES trajectory flys. These inputs and subsystem models can be varied depending on the AEDL flight mechanics scenario being simulated. Monte Carlo simulations are utilized to generate statistical AEDL performance metrics in the form of scorecards and violin plots. Furthermore, outputs from the POST2 simulation are utilized for follow-on analyses including aerothermal and landing performance. \section{Flight Mechanics Lessons Learned} Though the EES flight mechanics team uncovered a variety of lessons learned through the analysis conducted to support CCRS through preliminary design review, this paper will highlight the most important lessons. A key AEDL performance goal is to ensure the landing footprint of EES remains on the UTTR south range. A common modeling strategy used in EDL analysis is One-Variable-At-a-Time (OVAT). OVAT analysis provides insight into the key drivers that affect AEDL performance metrics. Figure 3 shows the landing ellipses for single dispersion sources as compared to the baseline aggregate of all dispersions. The figure shows that atmosphere winds alone dominate the size of the footprint ellipse (note: EES does not use a parachute unlike previous Earth-return missions and is in wind-driven free fall for ~5min). The significance of the wind led the EES flight mechanics team to pursue the development of a Custom Atmosphere Model [4], in lieu of EarthGRAM [1], built on actual radiosonde wind measurements around the UTTR-region. This decision was driven by the realism in the generated footprint ellipses and lessons-learned from Stardust [5]. These findings will be invaluable for future Earth-return missions in providing an early understanding of the key drivers affecting footprint size and modeling considerations for which to account. Another lesson learned is tied to the AEDL performance goal of achieving passive stability throughout all regions of flight. It is well understood that blunt-body aeroshells are less stable as they transition from supersonic to subsonic. Eliminating a backshell does help improvestability; however, other phenomena such as roll-induced instability during terminal descent can still arise. The EES flight mechanics team developed stability metrics as tools to better understand the causes of and better predict the onset of dynamic instability. These tools were built upon analytical models developed by Jaffe [3] and Murphy [2]. The tools were shown to both be very accurate in correlation with actual unstable cases and useful in developing stability margin policies based on the vehicle design and simulation considerations (e.g. sphere-cone angle change, mass change, wind turbulence). These tools allowed for the current EES design to demonstrate the ability to achieve passive stability and can be an invaluable tool for consideration in the design of parachute-less Earth-return vehicles.

Rohan Deshmukh↗

Ballistic Lunar Return Trajectories for Sustainable Cargo Return and Entry System Technology Development

As part of the sustained approach for the lunar Gateway and Artemis program as a whole, NASA is extending the logistics supply chain beyond low Earth orbit and to the Moon. This supply chain includes the possibility of lunar sample and cargo return. To enable these future return missions, the possibility for incorporating demonstration payloads including various entry, descent, and landing technologies is examined. Possible implementations include deployable entry vehicles, high speed sample return capsules, aeroassist technologies, and control technologies for guided hypersonic flight. The mission concepts utilize the secondary payload capabilities provided on a relatively low-cost logistic module. The logistic module may perform close Earth flyby, pointing, and release of return systems prior to disposal, with reentry velocities for payloads on the order of 11.5 km/sec. In this paper, we study the various return mission architectures available during the Artemis program to define the range of mission possibilities. Potential options include a reusable logistics module using a hypersonic inflatable aerodynamic decelerator, externally mounted entry system vehicle technologies, and a reusable sample return vehicle using a similar inflatable architecture with a feathered configuration with applied aerodynamic control. In these cases, the use of a ballistic lunar return trajectory is assumed, and a sensitivity analysis of midcourse corrections and the possibility of a lunar gravity assist for refining Earth entry interface points is provided. Furthermore, a novel controller for controlling a vehicle during reentry imposing heating limitations is introduced.

Matthew M. Wittal↗

Detection of the Earth with the SETI microwave observing system assumed to be operating out in the galaxy

This paper estimates the maximum range at which radar signals from the Earth could be detected by a search system similar to the NASA Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence Microwave Observing Project (SETI MOP) assumed to be operating out in the galaxy. Figures are calculated for the Targeted Search, and for the Sky Survey parts of the MOP, both operating, as currently planned, in the second half of the decade of the 1990s. Only the most powerful terrestrial transmitters are considered, namely, the planetary radar at Arecibo in Puerto Rico, and the ballistic missile early warning systems (BMEWS). In each case the probabilities of detection over the life of the MOP are also calculated. The calculation assumes that we are only in the eavesdropping mode. Transmissions intended to be detected by SETI systems are likely to be much stronger and would of course be found with higher probability to a greater range. Also, it is assumed that the transmitting civilization is at the same level of technological evolution as ours on Earth. This is very improbable. If we were to detect another technological civilization, it would, on statistical grounds, be much older than we are and might well have much more powerful transmitters. Both factors would make detection by the NASA MOP a much more likely outcome.

NASA Center ARC↗