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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1976

Reclaiming Waste Heat

'Air-O-Space' heater, based on spacecraft heat, requires no fuel other than electricity to run fan. Installed in chimney flue, heat pipes transfer heat from waste hot gases (but not the gases themselves) to fresh air blown across the other end of the pipes. It can transport roughly 500 times the heat flux of the best solid conductors with a temperature drop of less than 3 degrees per foot. This instrument has also been used by Kin-Tek Laboratories Inc. to produce an instrument to calibrate gas analyzers for air-pollution monitoring.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1987

Heat budgets of analyses and forecasts of an explosively deepening maritime cyclone

The contribution of different physical processes to the explosive maritime cyclogenesis event in western North Pacific during January 12-15, 1979 was estimated by calculating quasi-Lagrangian heat budgets based on the ECMWF analyses and the numerical predictions by the UCLA general circulation model. The heat budgets suggest that the explosive cyclogenesis event was associated with very strong latent heat release in the lower troposphere, with the heating rate about twice as large as was found in studies of nonexplosively deepening extratropical cyclones. An experimental integration of the UCLA model without latent heat release indicates that 75 percent of the deepening in this cyclogenesis event can be explained by dry dynamics alone. The latent heat release serves to enhance and modulate the rapid cyclogenesis.

Liou, Chi-Sann↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Synergy of Satellite Radiation, Precipitation, and Other Meteorological Variable Observations for Global Mean Sea Surface Turbulent Heat Flux Estimation

Sea surface turbulent heat flux is one of the key components in global freshwater and energy balances and plays an important role in atmospheric dynamics, thermodynamics and general circulation. This turbulent heat flux is dominantly decided by sea surface latent heat release with some contribution from sensible heat exchange. The flux and its anomaly could significantly affect ocean heat storage and ocean circulation. They are part of and have great impacts on climate variability. Though the turbulent heat flux is extremely important for the climate and weather systems, only very limited ship and buoy observations of the flux are available over open oceans. There are no global, operational, direct measurements of this crucial meteorological variable. Global estimates are, basically, indirectly calculated from bulk turbulent flux parameterization with a combination of satellite column water vapor, sea surface water temperature, and wind speed observations. Critical parameters such as sea surface air temperature and humidity are estimated from empirical relations of theses variables with the water vapor and sea surface water temperature, respectively. Lacking accurate knowledge on surface air temperature and humidity, uncertainties in the parameterization and potential changes in the non-linear turbulent processes with long-term climate variations could cause large errors in estimated long-term turbulent fluxes from the indirect method as shown in current global sea surface turbulent flux datasets. This study uses synergized data of satellite global radiation, precipitation, and other meteorological variable observations to estimate sea surface turbulent heat fluxes. The radiation observations are made by the satellite Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) sensors, while the global precipitation data is from NASA’s satellite Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Other data includes satellite sea surface water temperature and wind speed observations. These datasets are obtained from a wide range of space sensors from passive to active instruments and from visible and near infrared to thermal infrared and microwave spectral sounders. One significant feature of these datasets is that they have multi-decades long climate records. Top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation and its anomaly represents the net heat energy input to the climate system, and the oceanic precipitation and ocean-land moisture transport can be used to quantify sea surface latent heat release. Based on the synergized datasets and the principle of global water and energy balances, global mean turbulent heat fluxes are estimated. The turbulent heat anomalies for the first two decades of the 21st century are, then, obtained mainly from global CERES radiation and GPCP precipitation anomalies, along with CERES derived ocean-land heat transports. Analysis indicates that the uncertainties in the estimated turbulent flux anomalies may be reduced considerably. The results suggest a strong needs in synchronized and synergized observations of atmospheric radiation, precipitation, and oceanic meteorological variables for long-term climate studies.

Bing Lin↗

NASA NTRS2015

Cost Scaling of a Real-World Exhaust Waste Heat Recovery Thermoelectric Generator: A Deeper Dive

Cost is equally important to power density or efficiency for the adoption of waste heat recovery thermoelectric generators (TEG) in many transportation and industrial energy recovery applications. In many cases the system design that minimizes cost (e.g., the $/W value) can be very different than the design that maximizes the system's efficiency or power density, and it is important to understand the relationship between those designs to optimize TEG performance-cost compromises. Expanding on recent cost analysis work and using more detailed system modeling, an enhanced cost scaling analysis of a waste heat recovery thermoelectric generator with more detailed, coupled treatment of the heat exchangers has been performed. In this analysis, the effect of the heat lost to the environment and updated relationships between the hot-side and cold-side conductances that maximize power output are considered. This coupled thermal and thermoelectric treatment of the exhaust waste heat recovery thermoelectric generator yields modified cost scaling and design optimization equations, which are now strongly dependent on the heat leakage fraction, exhaust mass flow rate, and heat exchanger effectiveness. This work shows that heat exchanger costs most often dominate the overall TE system costs, that it is extremely difficult to escape this regime, and in order to achieve TE system costs of $1/W it is necessary to achieve heat exchanger costs of $1/(W/K). Minimum TE system costs per watt generally coincide with maximum power points, but Preferred TE Design Regimes are identified where there is little cost penalty for moving into regions of higher efficiency and slightly lower power outputs. These regimes are closely tied to previously-identified low cost design regimes. This work shows that the optimum fill factor Fopt minimizing system costs decreases as heat losses increase, and increases as exhaust mass flow rate and heat exchanger effectiveness increase. These findings have profound implications on the design and operation of various thermoelectric (TE) waste heat 3 recovery systems. This work highlights the importance of heat exchanger costs on the overall TEG system costs, quantifies the possible TEG performance-cost domain space based on heat exchanger effects, and provides a focus for future system research and development efforts.

cost analysis↗

NASA NTRS2014

Comparison of MODIS Land Surface Temperature and Air Temperature over the Continental USA Meteorological Stations

The National Land Cover Database (NLCD) Impervious Surface Area (ISA) and MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) are used in a spatial analysis to assess the surface-temperature-based urban heat island's (UHIS) signature on LST amplitude over the continental USA and to make comparisons to local air temperatures. Air-temperature-based UHIs (UHIA), calculated using the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) daily air temperatures, are compared with UHIS for urban areas in different biomes during different seasons. NLCD ISA is used to define urban and rural temperatures and to stratify the sampling for LST and air temperatures. We find that the MODIS LST agrees well with observed air temperature during the nighttime, but tends to overestimate it during the daytime, especially during summer and in nonforested areas. The minimum air temperature analyses show that UHIs in forests have an average UHIA of 1 C during the summer. The UHIS, calculated from nighttime LST, has similar magnitude of 1-2 C. By contrast, the LSTs show a midday summer UHIS of 3-4 C for cities in forests, whereas the average summer UHIA calculated from maximum air temperature is close to 0 C. In addition, the LSTs and air temperatures difference between 2006 and 2011 are in agreement, albeit with different magnitude.

Land Surface Temperature↗

NASA NTRS1964

Thermal Insulative Elastomers for Clustered Large Liquid Propellant Rocket Engines

As thrust levels increase and as rocket engines fire for longer periods of time, the difficulties encountered in the protection of critical components from the effects of excessively high temperatures greatly increase. To protect these components a series of filled elastomeric composites have been evaluated. A brief discussion is presented of the problems of hot gas recirculation, radiation, and base plane heating with particular reference to large, clustered, liquid propellant rocket engines. The effect on components is discussed and an evaluation of a series of insulators based on filled elastomeric composites is presented. The evaluations are based on specialized thermal tests which were designed to simulate as far as possible, conditions during flight. The most promising of these elastomeric composites are compared to three alternative insulative systems, a filled, castable ceramic, a metal foil-silica fiber batting, and an asbestos-inconel wire mesh composite, in terms of weight, cost, and ease of fabrication and repair.

Peters, S. T.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Microgravity Two-Phase Flow Transition

Two-phase flows under microgravity condition find a large number of important applications in fluid handling and storage, and spacecraft thermal management. Specifically, under microgravity condition heat transfer between heat exchanger surfaces and fluids depend critically on the distribution and interaction between different fluid phases which are often qualitatively different from the gravity-based systems. Heat transfer and flow analysis in two-phase flows under these conditions require a clear understanding of the flow pattern transition and development of appropriate dimensionless scales for its modeling and prediction. The physics of this flow is however very complex and remains poorly understood. This has led to various inadequacies in flow and heat transfer modeling and has made prediction of flow transition difficult in engineering design of efficient thermal and flow systems. In the present study the available published data for flow transition under microgravity condition are considered for mapping. The transition from slug to annular flow and from bubbly to slug flow are mapped using dimensionless variable combination developed in a previous study by the authors. The result indicate that the new maps describe the flow transitions reasonably well over the range of the data available. The transition maps are examined and the results are discussed in relation to the presumed balance of forces and flow dynamics. It is suggested that further evaluation of the proposed flow and transition mapping will require a wider range of microgravity data expected to be made available in future studies.

Parang, M.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Heat transfer effects of longitudinal vortices embedded in a turbulent boundary layer

The results of tests with five different vortex generators in an open circuit wind tunnel are reported. The tests were performed to enhance the data base on heat transfer effects of an isolated longitudinal vortex in a turbulent boundary layer and the effects of embedded vortex pairs. A heated plate was set in the boundary layer downstream of a tripping mechanism and measurements were made of the free stream and surface temperatures using thermocouples. A four-hole cobra probe assayed the velocity profiles. Trials revealed that vortex pairs with scales larger than the boundary layer thickness induce significant changes in the Stanton number. A 15 percent Stanton number increase was produced by isolated vortices, which swept cool free stream fluid into the near-wall region.

Eibeck, P. A.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Effects of rotation on coolant passage heat transfer. Volume 1: Coolant passages with smooth walls

An experimental program was conducted to investigate heat transfer and pressure loss characteristics of rotating multipass passages, for configurations and dimensions typical of modern turbine blades. The immediate objective was the generation of a data base of heat transfer and pressure loss data required to develop heat transfer correlations and to assess computational fluid dynamic techniques for rotating coolant passages. Experiments were conducted in a smooth wall large scale heat transfer model.

Hajek, T. J.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Examining Runner’s Outdoor Heat Exposure Using Urban Microclimate Modeling and GPS Trajectory Mining

It is important to quantify human heat exposure in order to evaluate and mitigate the negative impacts of heat on human well-being in the context of global warming. This study proposed a human-centric framework to examine human personal heat exposure based on anonymous GPS trajectories data mining and urban microclimate modeling. The mean radiant temperature (Tmrt) that represents the human body’s energy balance was used to indicate human heat exposure. The meteorological data and high-resolution 3D urban model generated from multispectral remotely sensed images and LiDAR data were used as inputs in urban microclimate modeling to map the spatio-temporal distribution of the Tmrt in the Boston metropolitan area. The anonymous human GPS trajectory data collected from fitness Apps was used to map the spatiotemporal distribution of human outdoor activities. By overlaying the anonymous GPS trajectories on the generated spatio-temporal maps of Tmrt, this study further examined the heat exposure of runners in different age-gender groups in the Boston area. Results show that there is no significant difference in terms of heat exposure for female and male runners. The female runners in the age of 45-54 are exposed to more heat than female runners of 18-24 and 25-34, while there is no significant difference among male runners. This study proposed a novel method to estimate human heat exposure, which would shed new light on mitigating the negative impacts of heat on human health.

Personal heat exposure↗

NASA NTRS2004

Experiments on Heat Transfer in a Thin Liquid Film Flowing Over a Rotating Disk

An experimental study of heat transfer into a thin liquid film on a rotating heated disk is described. Deionized water was introduced at the center of a heated. horizontal disk with a constant film thickness and uniform radial velocity. Radial distribution of the disk surface temperatures was measured using a thermocouple/slip ring arrangement. Experiments were performed for a range of liquid flow rates between 3.01pm and 15.01pm. The angular speed of the disk was varied from 0 rpm to 500 rpm. The local heat transfer coefficient was determined based on the heat flux supplied to the disk and the temperature difference between the measured disk surface temperature and the liquid entrance temperature onto the disk. The local heat transfer coefficient was seen to increase with increasing flow rate as well as increasing angular velocity of the disk. Effect of rotation on heat transfer was largest for the lower liquid flow rates with the effect gradually decreasing with increasing liquid flow rates. Semi-empirical correlations are presented in this study for the local and average Nusselt numbers.

Sankaran, Subramanian↗

NASA NTRS2013

It's the Heat AND the Humidity -- Assessment of Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. In a NASA-funded project supporting the National Climate Assessment, we are providing historical and future measures of extreme heat to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The project s emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM output, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons, 2040 and 2090, are the focus of future assessments; these are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We are characterizing regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM output for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM output have been analyzed to develop a heat stress climatology based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and past periods have been used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes, combined with hourly historical meteorological data at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, enable us to create future climate realizations, from which we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields. These include the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices and a new heat stress variable that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. All output is being provided at the 12 km spatial scale and will also be aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health researchers. County-level statistics will be made available by our collaborators at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. CDC WONDER makes the information resources of the CDC available to public health professionals and the general public. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER will allow decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. It will also allow public health researchers and policy makers to better include such heat stress measures in the context of national health data available in the CDC WONDER system. The users will be able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S.

Crosson, William L↗

NASA NTRS2013

Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S.

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km), to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices and a new heat stress variable developed as part of this research that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. Outputs are aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health interests. County-level statistics are made available to public health researchers by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wideranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER allows decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. Through CDC WONDER, users are able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Linking Excessive Heat with Daily Heat-Related Mortality over the Coterminous United States

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices, and a new heat stress variable developed as part of this research that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. Outputs are aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health interests. County-level statistics are made available to public health researchers by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER allows decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. Through CDC WONDER, users are able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Unsteady Heat-Flux Measurements of Second-Mode Instability Waves in a Hypersonic Boundary Layer

In this paper we report on the application of the atomic layer thermopile (ALTP) heat- flux sensor to the measurement of laminar-to-turbulent transition in a hypersonic flat plate boundary layer. The centerline of the flat-plate model was instrumented with a streamwise array of ALTP sensors and the flat-plate model was exposed to a Mach 6 freestream over a range of unit Reynolds numbers. Here, we observed an unstable band of frequencies that are associated with second-mode instability waves in the laminar boundary layer that forms on the flat-plate surface. The measured frequencies, group velocities, phase speeds, and wavelengths of these instability waves are in agreement with data previously reported in the literature. Heat flux time series, and the Morlet-wavelet transforms of them, revealed the wave-packet nature of the second-mode instability waves. In addition, a laser-based radiative heating system was developed to measure the frequency response functions (FRF) of the ALTP sensors used in the wind tunnel test. These measurements were used to assess the stability of the sensor FRFs over time and to correct spectral estimates for any attenuation caused by the finite sensor bandwidth.

Kergerise, Michael A.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Mars Science Laboratory Heatshield Aerothermodynamics: Design and Reconstruction

The Mars Science Laboratory heatshield was designed to withstand a fully turbulent heat pulse based on test results and computational analysis on a pre-flight design trajectory. Instrumentation on the flight heatshield measured in-depth temperatures in the thermal protection system. The data indicate that boundary layer transition occurred at 5 of 7 thermocouple locations prior to peak heating. Data oscillations at 3 pressure measurement locations may also indicate transition. This paper presents the heatshield temperature and pressure data, possible explanations for the timing of boundary layer transition, and a qualitative comparison of reconstructed and computational heating on the as-flown trajectory. Boundary layer Reynolds numbers that are typically used to predict transition are compared to observed transition at various heatshield locations. A uniform smooth-wall transition Reynolds number does not explain the timing of boundary layer transition observed during flight. A roughness-based Reynolds number supports the possibility of transition due to discrete or distributed roughness elements on the heatshield. However, the distributed roughness height would have needed to be larger than the pre-flight assumption. The instrumentation confirmed the predicted location of maximum turbulent heat flux near the leeside shoulder. The reconstructed heat flux at that location is bounded by smooth-wall turbulent calculations on the reconstructed trajectory, indicating that augmentation due to surface roughness probably did not occur. Turbulent heating on the downstream side of the heatshield nose exceeded smooth-wall computations, indicating that roughness may have augmented heating. The stagnation region also experienced heating that exceeded computational levels, but shock layer radiation does not fully explain the differences.

Edquist, Karl T.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Energy Efficient Microlith-Based Catalytic Reactor and Recuperator for Air Quality Control Applications

Precision Combustion, Inc. (PCI) and NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) have been developing, characterizing, and optimizing high temperature catalytic oxidizers (HTCO) based on PCI’s patented Microlith technology to meet the requirements of future extended human spaceflight explorations. Previous efforts focused on integrating PCI’s HTCO unit with a compact, simple recuperative heat exchanger to reduce the overall system size and weight. Significant improvement was demonstrated over traditional approaches of integrating the HTCO with an external recuperative heat exchanger. While the critical target performance metrics were achieved, the thermal effectiveness of PCI’s recuperator remained a potential area of improvement to further reduce the energy requirements of the integrated system. Using the same material combinations and an improved recuperator design, the redesigned prototype has experimentally demonstrated 20 – 30% reduction (flow dependent) in steady state power consumption compared to the earlier prototype without compromising the destruction efficiency of methane and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Moreover, design modifications and improvements allow our redesigned prototype to be more easily manufactured compared to traditional brazed plate-fin recuperator designs. The redesigned prototype was delivered to MSFC for validation testing. Here, we report and discuss the performance of the improved prototype HTCO unit with a high efficiency recuperative heat exchanger based on testing at PCI and MSFC. The device is expected to provide a reliable and robust means of disposing of trace levels of methane and VOCs by oxidizing them into carbon dioxide and water in order to maintain clean air in enclosed spaces, such as crewed spacecraft cabins.

Vilekar, Saurabh A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Climate Hazard Assessment for Stakeholder Adaptation Planning in New York City

This paper describes a time-sensitive approach to climate change projections, developed as part of New York City's climate change adaptation process, that has provided decision support to stakeholders from 40 agencies, regional planning associations, and private companies. The approach optimizes production of projections given constraints faced by decision makers as they incorporate climate change into long-term planning and policy. New York City stakeholders, who are well-versed in risk management, helped pre-select the climate variables most likely to impact urban infrastructure, and requested a projection range rather than a single 'most likely' outcome. The climate projections approach is transferable to other regions and consistent with broader efforts to provide climate services, including impact, vulnerability, and adaptation information. The approach uses 16 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three emissions scenarios to calculate monthly change factors based on 30-year average future time slices relative to a 30- year model baseline. Projecting these model mean changes onto observed station data for New York City yields dramatic changes in the frequency of extreme events such as coastal flooding and dangerous heat events. Based on these methods, the current 1-in-10 year coastal flood is projected to occur more than once every 3 years by the end of the century, and heat events are projected to approximately triple in frequency. These frequency changes are of sufficient magnitude to merit consideration in long-term adaptation planning, even though the precise changes in extreme event frequency are highly uncertain

Horton, Radley M.↗