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At least 325 records · Page 18

Focus enhancement in long schlieren imaging systems using corrector lenses

Long schlieren imaging systems, where the parallel light test section is longer than the focal length of the focusing schlieren optics, have a limited region in the test section in which any occluding object, such as a wind tunnel model, is in focus in the schlieren image. Corrector lenses are introduced here to alter the location in the test section where image focus is achieved. Corrector lenses with focal lengths varying from −1000 to −100mm were studied. Lens-type inline and z -type mirror schlieren systems were experimentally tested with multiple collecting optic focal lengths to characterize the changes in focal position. An automated image processing method was used to determine the plane of best focus from image sequences. The introduction of the corrector lens was observed to move the location of best focus within the schlieren system test section while also causing a decrease in the focal sharpness of the images and altering the magnification. The thin lens equation was found to provide a good estimate of the focal location change in the schlieren imaging systems with the addition of the corrector lens.

Torres, Sivana M.↗

Guidance for Integrating Energy Justice and Equity in Building Technology Deployment Programs: Tracking, Reporting, and Maximizing the Flow of Benefits from Building System Technology Deployment Activities to Disadvantaged Communities and Target Sectors

The Federal Justice40 Initiative directs at least 40% of the overall benefits of certain clean energy investments to flow to disadvantaged communities and requires that all federal programs covered by Justice40 consult stakeholders to determine the program benefits, and that the flow of benefits to disadvantaged communities is tracked and reported. Unequal distribution of benefits, in terms of access to clean energy research, design, development, and deployment, can disproportionately benefit or burden certain communities. This can result in higher rates of pollution, negative health effects, and increased energy burdens and insecurities in disadvantaged communities. Programs focused on decarbonizing the built environment can enhance health, quality of life, and economic opportunities for impacted communities. This guidance document, developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Building Technologies Office, provides best practices and approaches for incorporating energy justice and equity principles into building technology deployment activities. It provides best practices and recommendations for communicating with and involving disadvantaged communities and target building sectors in program activities, along with methods to monitor and report the distribution of benefits to these sectors. This document lays out a set of strategies, metrics, and best practices that can be implemented over time to apply energy justice and equity approaches, whether the program is just starting out or ongoing. Although this guidance was designed for Building Technologies Office technology deployment programs, the best practices, recommendations, and methods can be valuable to any program concerned with the equitable deployment of clean energy technologies. The goal of this project is to enable the equitable development, deployment, and adoption of clean energy technologies and practices.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

PV Performance Modeling and Stakeholder Engagement (Final Technical Report)

This core capability project’s objective is to increase the value of photovoltaic (PV) performance models by improving their functionality, demonstrating, and quantifying their validity, and offering a wide range of stakeholder engagement opportunities. In FY22-24, we developed new and improved modeling algorithms and functions to represent PV performance more accurately in a variety of environments and conditions. The “Model parameter toolkit” was developed and includes functions to translate between different module temperature models, incidence angle modifier models, and single-diode models. A new modeling capability named “PV Atlas” was also developed leveraging Sandia’s High Performance Computing resources. This capability allows us to investigate several questions and provide climate-specific best practices and geographic data files; all these are hosted on an interactive website on Sandia’s GitHub and can be used for training, system optimization, or to provide best practices for uncertainty reduction. For model validation, we published high-quality PV performance, and weather data; these data are well documented, filtered, and processed for quality and include examples on how to run PV simulations. We also developed well documented, standardized methods for validating PV models and ran independent model validation and 2 blind modeling intercomparisons engaging with 49 organizations from 17 countries. We co-led and contributed to a growing, well documented and maintained suite of open-source functions for PV modeling (i.e., the pvlib-python) and we outreached to the PV modeling stakeholders via the PVPMC workshops and web resources. In addition, this project supported US representation and leadership for the International Energy Agency (IEA) PVPS Task 13; specifically, members of our team led and supported 3 subtasks on: 1) Best practices for the optimization of bifacial photovoltaic tracking, 2) Extreme weather events and their multiple impact on PV power plants: Risks, failure mechanisms and mitigation strategies, and 3) Best practice guidelines for the use of economic and technical Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). This project resulted in the publications of 14 peer reviewed journal papers, 37 conference presentations, 6 SAND reports, 5 public datasets and 6 new webpages on the PVPMC website. It supported the release of 13 pvlib-python versions where 28 enhancements were from this PV Performance Modeling project. We co-organized 5 PVPMC workshops in FY22-24 with the participation of 214 unique institutions and around 700 participants. The PVPMC website was redesigned, and its reliability was improved; it receives over 50,000 visitors/year from 202 unique countries.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Commercialization of Pumped Storage Hydropower Technologies

Argonne National Laboratory and the National Laboratory of the Rockies were tasked by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Water Power Technology Office (WPTO) to conduct the Commercialization of Pumped Storage Hydropower Technologies study to investigate commercialization challenges faced by developers of pumped storage hydropower (PSH) projects and technologies by going beyond literature review to gather direct industry insights, lessons learned and best practices from interviews and webinars with industry specialists to create this report for PSH stakeholders and the general public. Researchers explored key challenges faced by PSH developers and innovators seeking to commercialize new technologies to improve PSH design, siting, construction, and operations. Along with highlighting challenges, the study sought to identify the best practices in developing and deploying new PSH projects and innovations. This report is designed to present insights, lessons learned, and best practices relevant to those with an interest in highlighting, informing, or advancing these PSH commercialization efforts. Along with highlighting challenges and best practices, the study sought to identify avenues by which DOE and national laboratories can help support and streamline PSH commercialization and project development processes.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Monitoring of Liquid Metal Reactor Heater Zones with Recurrent Neural Network Learning of Temperature Time Series

Advanced high-temperature fluid reactors (ARs), such as sodium fast reactors (SFRs) and molten salt cooled reactors (MSCRs) utilize high-temperature fluids at ambient pressure. To melt the fluid during reactor startup and prevent fluid freezing during cooldown, the thermal–hydraulic systems of such ARs include heater zones consisting of specific heaters with controllers, temperature sensors, and thermal insulation. The failure of heater zones due to insulation material degradation or improper installation, resulting in parasitic heat losses, can lead to fluid freezing. The detection of faults using a heat-transfer model is difficult because of a lack of knowledge of the experimental details. Data-driven machine learning of heater zone temperature time series offers a viable alternative. In this study, we benchmarked the performance of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) in an analysis of heat-up transient temperature time series of heater zones installed on a liquid sodium vessel. The RNN models include long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) networks, as well as their bi-directional variants, BiLSTM and BiGRU. Anomalous temperature points were designated using a percentile-based threshold applied to residual fluctuations in the detrended temperature time series. Additionally, the impact of the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) method on detection accuracy was examined. The RNN models’ performance was assessed using precision, recall, and F 1 score metrics. Results demonstrated that RNN models effectively detect anomalies in temperature time series with the best models for each heater zone achieving F 1 scores of over 93%. To explain the variations in RNN model performance across different heater zones, we used Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence to quantify the relative entropy between training and testing data, and the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) to assess long-range temporal correlations. For datasets with strong long-range correlations and minimal relative entropy between training and testing data, GRU is the best-performing model. When the data exhibits weaker long-term correlations and a significant relative entropy between training and testing distributions, BiGRU shows the best performance. For the data sets with intermediate values of both KL divergence and DFA, the best performance is obtained with LSTM and BiLSTM, respectively.

gated recurrent unit↗

Exploring the Value of Nodes with Multicommunity Membership for Classification with Graph Convolutional Neural Networks

Sampling is an important step in the machine learning process because it prioritizes samples that help the model best summarize the important concepts required for the task at hand. The process of determining the best sampling method has been rarely studied in the context of graph neural networks. In this paper, we evaluate multiple sampling methods (i.e., ascending and descending) that sample based off different definitions of centrality (i.e., Voterank, Pagerank, degree) to observe its relation with network topology. We find that no sampling method is superior across all network topologies. Additionally, we find situations where ascending sampling provides better classification scores, showing the strength of weak ties. Two strategies are then created to predict the best sampling method, one that observes the homogeneous connectivity of the nodes, and one that observes the network topology. In both methods, we are able to evaluate the best sampling direction consistently.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Preparation and Characterization of Materials for Low- to Intermediate-Temperature CO2 Adsorption

Global carbon dioxide emissions are rising and the use of fossil fuels in several sectors are the leading causes. As global population and economies continue to grow significantly, the most practical method of lowering such emissions is to capture CO2. Although other technologies are more developed, adsorption is very promising and has attracted much attention. To ensure this technology’s success, it is essential to have suitable CO2 adsorbent materials. In this work, several new hydrotalcites (HTs) with different initial concentrations of ion precursors were prepared for the first time by the co-precipitation method—it was possible to verify that the ion concentrations influence the characteristics of the materials. The prepared HTs were characterized by thermogravimetric analysis (TG), X-Ray diffraction (XRD), surface area measurements and temperature-programmed desorption of CO2 (TPD-CO2) to relate their CO2 capture capacity to their physicochemical properties; the CO2 adsorption equilibrium isotherms were determined at 35 and 300 °C for the prepared samples, as well as for some commercial materials: magnesium oxide, calcium oxide, aluminium oxide and Zeolite 13X. After determining which materials present the best CO2 adsorption capacity, these were submitted to adsorption-desorption cycles to study their stability. The main objective of the work was to prepare and study different CO2 adsorbents for processes that are carried out at low and intermediate temperatures. From the experimental results, it was possible to conclude that the Zeolite 13X showed the best capacity at 35 °C, 3.38 mmol·g−1 (@ pCO2 = 1 bar), and a prepared calcined HT (c-HT2) was the best at 300 °C, 0.97 mmol·g−1 (@ pCO2 = 1 bar). Moreover, it seems there is an optimum initial concentration of the ions’ solutions for the tested HTs, which depends on the final application—c-HT1 showed a better capacity at 35 °C and c-HT2 at 300 °C. From the adsorption-desorption cycles—performed at 35 and 300 °C with the best materials using a magnetic suspension microbalance at 1 bar of CO2 partial pressure —, a working cyclic capacity of 2.69 mmol∙g−1 was achieved by the Zeolite at 35 °C; in turn, c-HT2 showed a working cyclic capacity of 0.79 mmol∙g−1 at 300 °C.

Figueiredo, Anabela↗

Optimizing Optical Searches for Supermassive Black Hole Binaries in Active Galactic Nuclei Light Curves: Fourier versus Bayesian Periodicity Detection

Simulations predict that supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) will exhibit periodic brightness variations that may exceed the stochastic variability intrinsic to active galactic nuclei (AGN). In this paper, we simulate SMBHBs with damped random walk (DRW) AGN variability and an added sinusoidal signal from the orbital motion, and test three methods—a generalized Lomb–Scargle periodogram (GLSP), a nested Bayesian sampler (NBS), and a weighted wavelet z-transform (or WWZ)—to determine which is best at recovering the periodicity. Our simulated light curves follow the properties of the Catalina Real-Time Transient Survey (or CRTS), Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), and Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) to best inform current and future SMBHB searches. We map a broad range of parameter space and identify which DRW-only light curves best mimic periodicity and pass each method’s model selection. The NBS performs best at detecting periodicity and filtering out DRW-only light curves. Combined candidate selection with both the NBS and GLSP significantly reduces false-positive rates (FPRs) with marginal impact on true-positive rates (TPRs). With this joint model selection pipeline, we find the lowest FPRs in ZTF-like simulations and the highest detection rates in LSST-like simulations. Using a modified computation of the false-alarm probability with GLSP, we efficiently triage LSST AGN light curves (∼10 7 light curves in ∼10–30 hr) and achieve TPRs and FPRs of ∼40% and ∼0.5%, respectively.

Banaszak, Sebastian M. [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashvill↗

Are Deep Energy Retrofits in Commercial Buildings Including Window Upgrades?

U.S. Commercial buildings account for about 20% of total U.S. energy consumption. Because the thermal performance of windows significantly affects building energy efficiency and HVAC system performance, best practice guidance often includes window and envelope improvements in conjunction with HVAC upgrades to optimize energy use and improve occupant comfort. It is an open question, however, regarding how often these best practices are implemented in the field. This paper aims to address that gap by conducting a literature review and a series of interviews with commercial building auditing and management professionals to explore the factors that drive window retrofits in commercial buildings. The paper explores a range of case studies from deep energy retrofits across the globe, comparing projects with and without window retrofits. The primary goals of this review are to: (1) provide data from real-world case studies illustrating the role of windows in deep energy renovations and HVAC upgrades, (2) conduct retrofit cost analyses for windows and high-performance HVAC systems and (3) offer insights into how window upgrade decisions are made and when they are implemented as part of deep energy retrofits. Most of the retrofit studies focused exclusively on high performance HVAC upgrades without considering how window upgrades might further enhance the overall energy efficiency of commercial buildings. Interviews with building industry experts shed light on the key factors influencing deep energy retrofit decisions and what factors tip the scales in favor of including window measures with more comprehensive retrofit projects.

Cort, Katherine↗

Fusion Conference Awards 2020

Since its inception, ISIF has promoted a high-quality technical program at FUSION. One way to encourage this excellence is to promote the paper awards program. Accordingly, each year the conference includes recognition of the best regular papers and the best student papers. Student papers are those for which the lead author is a full-time graduate (or undergraduate) student at an accredited university. As mandated by the ISIF Board of Directors, the best paper receives the Jean Pierre Le Cadre Award. The best student paper receives the Tammy L. Blair Award. These awards honor the efforts and commitment of both Jean-Pierre and Tammy to the international fusion community over many years.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Workshop on Addressing Rigor and Reproducibility in Thermal, Heterogeneous Catalysis

Heterogeneous catalysis has long served as the bedrock of the manufacturing of energy carriers, fuels and chemicals, and various technologies for pollution abatement. The significant complexity and variability spanning the entire breadth of catalyst material properties, synthesis methods, characterization techniques, and evaluation procedures, has focused attention on the need to establish community-accepted best practices for ensuring high-quality, benchmarked, and reproducible data. In addition, increased societal urgency to transition to clean energy and reduce greenhouse gas concentrations has incentivized interdisciplinary, convergent, and translational approaches to catalysis research in recent years. Research engineers and scientists with expertise cutting broadly across materials science, chemical synthesis, interfacial science, spectroscopy, and methods of data science and computational simulation, all bring diverse and important perspectives to catalysis research, but often with little awareness of the complexity of catalytic systems, especially in their working environment. As has already occurred in other scientific fields, there has been growing recognition and consensus in the heterogeneous catalysis research community that mechanisms are needed to improve the rigor and reproducibility (R&R) of experimental measurements, to ensure alignment of the broader research community with a common core of best practices specific to the realization of high-quality catalysis research. Similarly, the field is moving rapidly toward computationally informed and data science-driven catalyst design, but the success of implementing such predictive tools hinges on model training and validation rooted in rigorously obtained and reproducible experimental data that are benchmarked to common specifications. As such, this workshop was convened to prepare a report summarizing best practices for reporting data and performing experiments that researchers can use to benchmark, validate, and reproduce data in specific sub-fields of thermal, heterogeneous catalysis. Additionally, we discussed recommendations for future actions that may improve R&R in this field. The workshop organizers and participants include a diverse range of catalysis researchers from various employment sectors (e.g., academia, industry, national laboratory), institutional mission and resources (e.g., PhD-granting research universities, non-PhD-granting teaching universities), career stage (e.g., early, mid and late-career), technical expertise, and demographic background. This diverse group was involved in the discussion of workshop agenda items, writing this report, and discussing possible future action items for the community to consider, which helped ensure that a broad range of perspectives were captured in the description of the problems at hand and the creation of actionable solutions that may be effectively adopted by the diverse practitioners in catalysis research. Importantly, this group of workshop participants also included very early career researchers (e.g., senior PhD students, postdoctoral scholars) who will become the next generation of scientific leaders in various sectors, thus capturing emerging perspectives of newcomers to the field to shape its future while positively impacting the development of its future workforce. We envision that this effort will help advance the field of catalysis science by improving the rigor and reproducibility of experimental data collected by current researchers and future newcomers to the field, which is of broad importance to health and vitality of any scientific discipline. Therefore, best practices identified in this endeavor for thermal heterogeneous catalysis can be translated to such efforts in other areas of catalysis and other scientific fields involving the study of materials, and vice versa. We also envision this to be an ongoing effort, with future workshops that are convened to discuss issues of rigor and reproducibility on technical topics that were unable to be covered in this workshop due to its scope limitations, and as emerging methods and materials become more prevalent in the research community.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Foundations of plasma standards

Abstract The field of low-temperature plasmas (LTPs) excels by virtue of its broad intellectual diversity, interdisciplinarity and range of applications. This great diversity also challenges researchers in communicating the outcomes of their investigations, as common practices and expectations for reporting vary widely in the many disciplines that either fall under the LTP umbrella or interact closely with LTP topics. These challenges encompass comparing measurements made in different laboratories, exchanging and sharing computer models, enabling reproducibility in experiments and computations using traceable and transparent methods and data, establishing metrics for reliability, and in translating fundamental findings to practice. In this paper, we address these challenges from the perspective of LTP standards for measurements, diagnostics, computations, reporting and plasma sources. This discussion on standards, or recommended best practices, and in some cases suggestions for standards or best practices, has the goal of improving communication, reproducibility and transparency within the LTP field and fields allied with LTPs. This discussion also acknowledges that standards and best practices, either recommended or at some point enforced, are ultimately a matter of judgment. These standards and recommended practices should not limit innovation nor prevent research breakthroughs from having real-time impact. Ultimately, the goal of our research community is to advance the entire LTP field and the many applications it touches through a shared set of expectations.

data and reaction mechanisms↗

Using a Genetic Algorithm to Optimize Configurations in a Data-Driven Application

Users of highly-configurable software systems often want to optimize a particular objective such as improving a functional outcome or increasing system performance. One approach is to use an evolutionary algorithm. However, many applications today are data-driven, meaning they depend on inputs or data which can be complex and varied. Hence, a search needs to be run (and re-run) for all inputs, making optimization a heavy-weight and potentially impractical process. In this paper, we explore this issue on a data-driven highly-configurable scientific application. We build an exhaustive database containing 3,000 configurations and 10,000 inputs, leading to almost 100 million records as our oracle, and then run a genetic algorithm individually on each of the 10,000 inputs. We ask if (1) a genetic algorithm can find configurations to improve functional objectives; (2) whether patterns of best configurations over all input data emerge; and (3) if we can we use sampling to approximate the results. We find that the original (default) configuration is best only 34% of the time, while clear patterns emerge of other best configurations. Out of 3,000 possible configurations, only 112 distinct configurations achieve the optimal result at least once across all 10,000 inputs, suggesting the potential for lighter weight optimization approaches. We show that sampling of the input data finds similar patterns at a lower cost.

Sinha, Urjoshi↗

Quantitative Representativeness and Constituency of the Long-Term Agroecosystem Research Network and Analysis of Complementarity with Existing Ecological Networks

Abstract Studies conducted at sites across ecological research networks usually strive to scale their results to larger areas, trying to reach conclusions that are valid throughout larger enclosing regions. Network representativeness and constituency can show how well conditions at sampling locations represent conditions also found elsewhere and can be used to help scale-up results over larger regions. Multivariate statistical methods have been used to design networks and select sites that optimize regional representation, thereby maximizing the value of datasets and research. However, in networks created from already established sites, an immediate challenge is to understand how well existing sites represent the range of environments in the whole area of interest. We performed an analysis to show how well sites in the USDA Long-Term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) Network represent all agricultural working lands within the conterminous United States (CONUS). Our analysis of 18 LTAR sites, based on 15 climatic and edaphic characteristics, produced maps of representativeness and constituency. Representativeness of the LTAR sites was quantified through an exhaustive pairwise Euclidean distance calculation in multivariate space, between the locations of experiments within each LTAR site and every 1 km cell across the CONUS. Network representativeness is from the perspective of all CONUS locations, but we also considered the perspective from each LTAR site. For every LTAR site, we identified the region that is best represented by that particular site—its constituency—as the set of 1 km grid locations best represented by the environmental drivers at that particular LTAR site. Representativeness shows how well the combination of characteristics at each CONUS location was represented by the LTAR sites’ environments, while constituency shows which LTAR site was the closest match for each location. LTAR representativeness was good across most of the CONUS. Representativeness for croplands was higher than for grazinglands, probably because croplands have more specific environmental criteria. Constituencies resemble ecoregions but have their environmental conditions “centered” on those at particular existing LTAR sites. Constituency of LTAR sites can be used to prioritize the locations of experimental research at or even within particular sites, or to identify the extents that can likely be included when generalizing knowledge across larger regions of the CONUS. Sites with a large constituency have generalist environments, while those with smaller constituency areas have more specialized environmental combinations. These “specialist” sites are the best representatives for smaller, more unusual areas. The potential of sharing complementary sites from the Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network and the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) to boost representativeness was also explored. LTAR network representativeness would benefit from borrowing several NEON sites and the Sevilleta LTER site. Later network additions must include such specialist sites that are targeted to represent unique missing environments. While this analysis exhaustively considered principal environmental characteristics related to production on working lands, we did not consider the focal agronomic systems under study, or their socio-economic context.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantitative analysis of Raman spectral parameters for carbon fibers: practical considerations and connection to mechanical properties

Although the literature on the Raman spectra of carbon fibers is vast, no consistent, robust predictive relationship between mechanical properties of carbon fibers and spectral parameters exists. This shortcoming is due to the use of numerous fitting functions to evaluate Raman spectra of carbon fibers and the inconsistencies in establishing the best fitting models in a statistically robust fashion. To address this gap, we present a comprehensive work on the Raman spectra of carbon fibers that combines a vast library of experimental data with a robust numerical analysis and a statistical evaluation of a wide range of suggested fitting models. This manuscript begins with a brief review of the commonly applied fitting models. Then, the Raman spectra of 32 commercially available polyacrylonitrile-based carbon fibers collected at excitation wavelengths 532, 633, and 785 nm are presented and the best fit for all fibers is evaluated based on several statistical criteria in conjunction with numerical calculations and physical arguments. The results suggest that high-performance fibers must be fit with at least five peaks, whereas high-tensile modulus fibers are best fit with at least six distinct peaks. Finally, we employ simultaneous fitting of the Raman spectra of specific fibers and wavelengths and demonstrate that strong correlations exist between mechanical properties and the D1 peak position and shape across the range of evaluated mechanical properties. Finally, we suggest straightforward improvements in fitting analysis procedures that can be implemented to increase coherency in the understanding of the underlying carbon fiber microstructure intuited from Raman spectroscopy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Choosing the Right Tool: A Comparative Study of Wetland Assessment Approaches

There are over 700 aquatic ecological assessment approaches across the globe that meet specific institutional goals. However, in many cases, multiple assessment tools are designed to meet the same management need, resulting in a confusing array of overlapping options. Here, we look at six riverine wetland assessments currently in use in Montana, USA, and ask which tool (1) best captures the condition across a disturbance gradient and (2) has the most utility to meet the regulatory or management needs. We used descriptive statistics to compare wetland assessments (n = 18) across a disturbance gradient determined by a landscape development intensity. Factor analysis showed that many of the tools had internal metrics that did not correspond well with overall results, hindering the tool’s ability to act as designed. We surveyed regional wetland managers (n = 56) to determine the extent of their use of each of the six tools and how well they trusted the information the assessment tool provided. We found that the Montana Wetland Assessment Methodology best measured the range of disturbance and had the highest utility to meet Clean Water Act (CWA§ 404) needs. Montana Department of Environmental Quality was best for the CWA§ 303(d) & 305(b) needs. The US Natural Resources Conservation Service’s Riparian Assessment Tool was the third most used by managers but was the tool that had the least ability to distinguish across a disturbance, followed by the US Bureau of Land Management’s Proper Functioning Condition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Gap-filling eddy covariance methane fluxes: Comparison of machine learning model predictions and uncertainties at FLUXNET-CH4 wetlands

Time series of methane fluxes measured by eddy-covariance require gap-filling to estimate annual emissions. Gap-filling methane fluxes is challenging because of high variability and complex responses to multiple drivers. To date, there is no widely established gap-filling standard for methane, with regards both to the best model algorithms and predictors. In this study, we address the need for standardization by synthesizing results of gap-filling methods applied at 17 wetland sites spanning boreal to tropical regions including all major wetlands classes and two rice paddies. We introduce new procedures for: 1) creating realistic artificial gap scenarios, 2) training and evaluating gap-filling models without overstating performance, and 3) predicting half-hourly methane fluxes and annual emissions with robust uncertainty estimates. We tested a conventional method (marginal distribution sampling) and four machine learning algorithms - penalized linear regression, artificial neural networks, random forests, and boosted decision trees - and four predictor sets, including temporal, meteorological, ecosystem carbon and energy flux, and soil predictors. We find that the conventional method can achieve similar median performance to the machine learning models but is worse than the best machine learning models and relatively insensitive to predictor choices. Of the machine learning models, decision tree algorithms performed the best in cross-validation experiments, even with a baseline predictor set, and artificial neural networks showed comparable performance when using all predictors. Soil temperature was frequently the most important predictor whilst water table depth was important at sites with substantial water table fluctuations, highlighting the value of data on soil conditions. Raw gap-filling uncertainties from the machine learning models were underestimated and we propose a method to calibrate uncertainties to observations. Finally, we gap-fill and provide summary evaluation metrics for all 81 sites in the FLUXNET-CH4 community dataset and publicly release the python code for model development, evaluation, and uncertainty estimation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A heuristic tool to assess regional impacts of renewable energy infrastructure on conservation areas

Wind and hydropower are important renewable components of national energy portfolios, but their infrastructure negatively affects biodiversity. Regional development requires identification of scenarios that minimize the cumulative impacts of multiple facilities. We introduce the cumulative impact plot (CIP) to quantify cumulative impacts of renewable energy development within a region. Summed impacts of facilities are plotted as a function of the number of facilities, with facilities ranked by increasing (the best-case scenario) or decreasing (worst-case scenario) individual impact. These curves represent lower and upper bounds to which alternative development scenarios (e.g., facilities ranked by generating capacity) can be compared. We used CIPs to assess overlap of potential wind and hydropower facilities with two types of conservation area in the United States: (1) federally protected lands and (2) critical habitats of federally threatened and endangered species. Here, we evaluated two alternative scenarios: facilities ranked by (A) decreasing generating capacity and (B) increasing distance from urban centers. Differences between the best-case and worst-case scenarios were large, thus revealing opportunities to develop facilities with limited impact on conservation areas. Alternative scenarios maximizing energy density generally resulted in conservation area overlap intermediate to best-case and worst-case scenarios. CIPs can also identify the proportion of wind versus hydropower favored under alternative scenarios. Build-out scenarios aimed at minimizing conservation area overlap favor hydropower, whereas alternative scenarios favor wind power. We conclude that CIPs can (1) complement—but should not replace—project-level environmental impact assessment, (2) integrate strategic, cumulative, and scenario-based assessments, and (3) harness rapidly growing geospatial data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗