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DOE OSTI2021

Explaining the trends and variability in the United States tornado records using climate teleconnections and shifts in observational practices

The annual frequency of tornadoes during 1950–2018 across the major tornado-impacted states were examined and modeled using anthropogenic and large-scale climate covariates in a hierarchical Bayesian inference framework. Anthropogenic factors include increases in population density and better detection systems since the mid-1990s. Large-scale climate variables include El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). The model provides a robust way of estimating the response coefficients by considering pooling of information across groups of states that belong to Tornado Alley, Dixie Alley, and Other States, thereby reducing their uncertainty. The influence of the anthropogenic factors and the large-scale climate variables are modeled in a nested framework to unravel secular trend from cyclical variability. Population density explains the long-term trend in Dixie Alley. The step-increase induced due to the installation of the Doppler Radar systems explains the long-term trend in Tornado Alley. NAO and the interplay between NAO and ENSO explained the interannual to multi-decadal variability in Tornado Alley. PDO and AMO are also contributing to this multi-time scale variability. SOI and AO explain the cyclical variability in Dixie Alley. This improved understanding of the variability and trends in tornadoes should be of immense value to public planners, businesses, and insurance-based risk management agencies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Contribution of sewage to occurrence of phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitors in natural water

Phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitors (PDE-5i, such as Sildenafil, Tadalafil and Vardenafil, mainly prescribed to treat erectile dysfunction) and their generic drug equivalents have been widely marketed and consumed in Korea. From the concentrations detected in wastewater, we could deduce that relatively large amounts of PDE-5i were consumed without a legal prescription. Thus, PDE-5i’s presence in the environment via sewage is unavoidable, and their environmental fate within a sewage treatment plant (STP) should be evaluated. In this study, we investigated the occurrence of three PDE-5i analogs in the influent and effluent of two STPs and the receiving water bodies. The PDE-5i concentration in total reached 62 ± 12 (STP#1) and 88 ± 37 ng L -1 (STP#2) in the sewage influent; about 70% of it was Sildenafil in both STPs. However, they were hardly removed by the STPs as the removal efficiency of the STPs was less than 10% ± 5%. Therefore, the pharmaceuticals were detected in the receiving water (lower than 7 ng L -1 as a total amount) and the concentration slightly increased downstream of the STPs. A simple mass balance model applied for the compounds in the STP effluent and receiving water bodies also confirmed that the discharged PDE-5i were quite persistent. Lastly, we identified temporal and regional patterns in the consumption of the drugs from daily variations of PDE-5i in the influent to these two STPs. For instance, the levels of PDE-5i in the sewage significantly increased on weekends (from Friday to Saturday), and especially in the area where adult-entertainment businesses are common. We estimated that the amount of PDE-5i consumption in this area was 31% higher than that in the area with fewer nightlife spots. Considering that they are pharmaceutically active and resistant to treatment processes within an STP, it is advised that a regular monitoring and management program for PDE-5i should be developed to prevent the discharge of the pharmaceuticals into the water environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A multi model ensemble reveals net climate benefits from regenerative practices in US Midwest croplands

Process-based cropping systems models (CSMs) are key components of measurement, monitoring, reporting, and verification frameworks of carbon markets, but model-specific differences limit their applicability across diverse pedo-climatic conditions and agronomic practices. Multi-model ensemble (MME) provides an opportunity to better estimate changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from agronomic practices at scale. We used an MME across 46 million hectares of US Midwest cropland at a resolution of 4-km 2 to assess the aggregate ability of different regenerative practices to sequester SOC and N 2 O emissions compared to their counterfactual dynamic baselines. MME was validated against long-term trials and compared to its constituent CSMs, showing greater accuracy and lower uncertainty. The results show that adopting no-till combined with cover crops increased SOC stocks by 0.36 ± 0.12 Mg ha -1 yr -1 , corresponding to a net regional SOC gain of 16.4 Tg C yr -1 compared to business-as-usual baselines. These benefits are halved when each management is practiced individually, and the SOC gains are only fully realized with low initial carbon stock. By including N 2 O emissions, we can assess the overall climate mitigation potential, specifically, the extent to which carbon sequestration can offset direct N 2 O emissions. The magnitude of this potential varies depending on management practices and geographic location with net climate benefits on average ranging from 0 to 3 Mg CO 2 -eq ha -1 yr -1 . High-resolution MME results allow for robust estimates of climate mitigation, reducing barriers to carbon market participation and supporting regenerative agriculture initiatives at scale.

carbon credits↗

DOE OSTI2024

Scalable electrified cementitious materials production and recycling

The production of Portland cement, the industry-standard cement, contributes ~8% of global CO 2 emissions through fossil-fuel heating and decomposition of limestone (the primary cement raw material). Decarbonization, e.g., via direct electrification, of this 200-year-old liming routine is extremely challenging at the industry scale. We propose a scalable electrochemical decarbonization approach to circumvent the limestone use by switching to carbon-free calcium silicates from abundant minerals and recycled concrete. Water electrolysis produces protons and hydroxides to drive a pH gradient that accelerates Ca 2+ ion leaching from calcium silicates and captures atmospheric CO 2 to form carbon-negative CaCO 3 , which serves as the feedstock for cement manufacturing or as the carbon-mineralized product for cement substitution with permanent carbon storage. Value-added co-products amorphous silica and green H 2 further enhance cement performance and supplant fossil fuels for net-zero transition, respectively. The products readily meet present-day regulatory standards and demands, and the approach readily synergizes with business-as-usual cement manufacturing and concrete construction, which are important for upscaling and structural safety, promising ready reception by the public and industries. Blended Portland cement produced through our approach with carbon-negative CaCO 3 and silica demonstrates enhanced resilience and achieves carbon neutrality or negativity when incorporating storage or circulation of CO 2 from cement plant flue gas, respectively. This low-cost, electrochemical cement production approach using abundant ubiquitous raw materials enables electrification, transition to clean fuel, and decarbonization at a gigaton scale.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Bringing heterogeneity to the CMS software framework

The advent of computing resources with co-processors, for example Graphics Processing Units (GPU) or Field-Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGA), for use cases like the CMS High-Level Trigger (HLT) or data processing at leadership-class supercomputers imposes challenges for the current data processing frameworks. These challenges include developing a model for algorithms to offload their computations on the co-processors as well as keeping the traditional CPU busy doing other work. The CMS data processing framework, CMSSW, implements multithreading using the Intel Threading Building Blocks (TBB) library, that utilizes tasks as concurrent units of work. In this paper we will discuss a generic mechanism to interact effectively with non-CPU resources that has been implemented in CMSSW. In addition, configuring such a heterogeneous system is challenging. In CMSSW an application is configured with a configuration file written in the Python language. The algorithm types are part of the configuration. The challenge therefore is to unify the CPU and co-processor settings while allowing their implementations to be separate. We will explain how we solved these challenges while minimizing the necessary changes to the CMSSW framework. We will also discuss on a concrete example how algorithms would offload work to NVIDIA GPUs using directly the CUDA API.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optimization Framework to Assess the Demand Response Capacity of a Water Distribution System

As large electricity consumers, water distribution system (WDS) pumping stations have the potential to become meaningful participants in demand response (DR) programs. The authors propose an optimization framework for assessing the DR capacity of a WDS and identifying the optimal bidding strategy for maximizing WDS revenue in the DR spot market. The proposed mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model overcomes computational constraints of previous DR optimization models by adopting a preprocessing procedure to minimize the number of binary variables and implementing a convex relaxation technique to linearize the hydraulic equations. The proposed MILP model also explicitly accounts for varying levels of risk tolerance of WDS operators by varying the recovery period over which pumping returns to business-as-usual operation. The optimization framework is implemented on a skeletonized 48-node WDS model that includes 7 pumps, 6 tanks, and 39 pipes. Using a simulated DR event and water consumption profile, the authors derive the optimal DR supply curves (i.e., compensation price versus load curtailment quantity) and revenue potential of the WDS under six scenarios for DR participation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Exploring the Effects of Population and Employment Characteristics on Truck Flows: An Analysis of NextGen NHTS Origin-Destination Data

Truck transportation remains the dominant mode of US freight transportation because of its advantages, such as the flexibility of accessing pickup and drop-off points and faster delivery. Because of the massive freight volume transported by trucks, understanding the effects of population and employment characteristics on truck flows is critical for better transportation planning and investment decisions. The US Federal Highway Administration published a truck travel origin-destination data set as part of the Next Generation National Household Travel Survey program. This data set contains the total number of truck trips in 2020 within and between 583 predefined zones encompassing metropolitan and nonmetropolitan statistical areas within each state and Washington, DC. In this study, origin-destination-level truck trip flow data was augmented to include zone-level population and employment characteristics from the US Census Bureau. Census population and County Business Patterns data were included. The final data set was used to train a machine learning algorithm-based model, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), where the target variable is the number of total truck trips. Shapley Additive ExPlanation (SHAP) was adopted to explain the model results. Results showed that the distance between the zones was the most important variable and had a nonlinear relationship with truck flows.

Uddin, Majbah↗

DOE OSTI2023

Novel Earned Value Management System Maturity Framework and Its Relation to Project Performance

Earned value management systems (EVMS) are used by industry practitioners to successfully manage projects and programs; however, there has been no past study to characterize and evaluate the impact of EVMS maturity on project performance. This paper introduces a novel framework, developed to measure the EVMS maturity, composed of 56 attributes arrayed across ten subprocesses, which together make up an integrated project/program management system. This paper describes how the framework was conceived and developed, based on literature review and data collected from industry workshops. Then, it examines the relationship between EVMS maturity and ten project performance metrics through statistical analyses. The study analyzed project data from 35 projects and programs worth over $21.8 billion in total cost. For this sample, results showed statistically significant differences between projects with high and low EVMS maturity; on average, projects exhibiting high EVMS maturity have 54% less cost overruns and 19% less change orders versus their performance measurement baseline. Higher maturity projects and programs also achieve better customer satisfaction, meet business objectives more often, and are more often in compliance with EVMS standards and guidelines. This paper contributes to the body of knowledge by providing a practical and novel framework for assessing the maturity of earned value management systems. Practitioners can use the framework to improve their integrated project and program management.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Solar optical performance of SiC receiver tubes

As part of a DOE Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) project, CTP explored options to enhance the solar optical properties of its solar receiver tube. Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) working with CTP, performed high-flux solar simulator tests on several receiver-tube specimens. Furthermore, the results demonstrated the excellent durability and optical performance of SiOC composite receiver tubes at 800°C surface temperatures.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Scaling Up CSP: How Long Will it Take?

Concentrating solar power (CSP) is one of the few scalable technologies capable of delivering dispatchable renewable power. Therefore, many expect it to shoulder a significant share of system balancing in a renewable electricity future powered by cheap, intermittent PV and wind power: the IEA, for example, projects 73 GW CSP by 2030 and several hundred GW by 2050 in its Net-Zero by 2050 pathway. In this paper, we assess how fast CSP can be expected to scale up and how long time it would take to get new, high-efficiency CSP technologies to market, based on observed trends and historical patterns. We find that to meaningfully contribute to net-zero pathways the CSP sector needs to reach and exceed the maximum historical annual growth rate of 30%/year last seen between 2010-2014 and maintain it for at least two decades. Any CSP deployment in the 2020s will rely mostly on mature existing technologies, namely parabolic trough and molten-salt towers, but likely with adapted business models such as hybrid CSP-PV stations, combining the advantages of higher-cost dispatchable and low-cost intermittent power. New third-generation CSP designs are unlikely to play a role in markets during the 2020s, as they are still at or before the pilot stage and, judging from past pilot-to-market cycles for CSP, they will likely not be ready for market deployment before 2030. CSP can contribute to low-cost zero-emission energy systems by 2050, but to make that happen, at the scale foreseen in current energy models, ambitious technology-specific policy support is necessary, as soon as possible and in several countries.

concentrated solar power↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Methodology to Support the Development of a New State Vision for the U.S. Nuclear Industry

Recent changes in natural gas prices combined with reduced capital costs for solar and wind systems has created challenges for the continued operation of existing nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States. A new strategy in the way in which U.S. NPPs are operated, maintained, and supported is needed. One such strategy is to transform the NPP operating model through a business-driven approach that leverages technology to enable new capabilities that improve performance and reduce costs. This paper presents a methodology for developing an achievable yet transformative new state vision that ensures the continued safe and efficient operations of the U.S. NPP fleet. Here this work builds on existing guidance and leverages previous research to comprehensively address both utility needs and high-level human factors engineering design principles when developing a new state vision. The proposed methodology is intended to provide industry-wide guidance for developing a new state vision that leverages both the selected vendor’s capabilities in a way that meets the utility’s modernization goals while ensuring state-of-the-art systems engineering and human factors engineering principles are applied that promote overall plant safety, performance, and efficiency.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cordon screen: A cordon-based congestion pricing policy evaluation method for U.S. cities

Global trends toward urbanization will exacerbate traffic congestion, delays in economic productivity, and air pollution issues for growing cities. Traffic congestion pricing is one method available to help ameliorate these concerns. New York City is on the verge of implementing a cordon-based traffic congestion pricing policy around its central business district. For budget-constrained municipalities, evaluating implementation of such policy could be costly. This article proposes a sketch-planning methodology, called Cordon Screen, for major U.S. cities to evaluate the net income, traffic mitigation, and avoided pollution emissions from cordon-based traffic congestion pricing. This method relies on national datasets and limited user-specific data inputs, along with a range of user-selectable assumptions informed by academic literature to deliver order-of-magnitude results. The numerous limitations of this method are acceptable for preliminary policy evaluation to determine if greater financial investment to obtain more accurate results is justified. The Denver metropolitan area is used to demonstrate Cordon Screen capabilities, with mid-range assumption results suggesting the policy is most effective at generating net income and increasing vehicle speeds on major interstates. For Denver, the policy is comparably less effective at reducing air pollution and increasing speeds on minor roadways. Validation against early implementation results from the London cordon are acceptable. Still, users should discount revenue generation projections. Choice of cordon area may be the most difficult obstacle when using the Cordon Screen. With refinement, Cordon Screen could serve as a low-cost, open-source planning evaluation tool for growing and congested U.S. cities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

A global assessment of policy tools to support climate adaptation

Governments, businesses, and civil society organizations have diverse policy tools to incentivize adaptation. Policy tools can shape the type and extent of adaptation, and therefore, function either as barriers or enablers for reducing risk and vulnerability. Using data from a systematic review of academic literature on global adaptation responses to climate change (n = 1549 peer-reviewed articles), we categorize the types of policy tools used to shape climate adaptation. We apply qualitative and quantitative analyses to assess the contexts where particular tools are used, along with equity implications for groups targeted by the tools, and the tools’ relationships with transformational adaptation indicators such as the depth, scope, and speed of adaptation. We find diverse types of tools documented across sectors and geographic regions. We also identify a mismatch between the tools that consider equity and those that yield more transformational adaptations. Direct regulations, plans, and capacity building are associated with higher depth and scope of adaptation (thus transformational adaptation), while economic instruments, information provisioning, and networks are not; the latter tools, however, are more likely to target marginalized groups in their design and implementation. We identify multiple research gaps, including a need to assess instrument mixes rather than single tools and to assess adaptations that result from policy implementation. Key policy insights Information-based approaches, networks, and economic instruments are the most frequently documented adaptation policy tools worldwide. Direct regulations, plans, and capacity building are associated with higher depth and scope of adaptation, and thus more transformational adaptation. Capacity building, economic instruments, networks, and information provisioning approaches are more likely to target specific marginalized groups and thus equity challenges. There are many regions and sectors where certain tools are not widely documented (e.g. regulations and plans in Africa and Asia), representing a key research gap.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improving commercial truck fleet composition in emission modeling using 2021 US VIUS data

Commercial trucks are essential elements of the nation's supply chain system. Meanwhile, intensive truck movements contribute significantly to system externalities, such as energy use and air pollution. However, collecting detailed fleet composition and distribution of operational patterns remains a barrier to accurately accounting for these impacts. The recently released 2021 US Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (US VIUS) fills a critical gap in understanding commercial truck fleet distributions, their operations, and business constraints at the national scale. This study aims to understand the latest US commercial vehicle fleet composition and operational characteristics using 2021 US VIUS data and calibrate the fleet inputs in regulatory emission models to assess the potential emission implications of the VIUS-derived fleet composition. The emission rates for commercial trucks and default fleet composition are collected from the U.S. EPA's MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES4). The 2021 US VIUS data is applied to improve fleet characteristics such as the long-haul fraction and the vehicle mileage accumulation rate. The study also investigates potential emission reduction benefits under various forecasted fleet electrification scenarios. The energy consumption and critical air pollutant rates by vehicle types are compared between MOVES4 and US VIUS fleets for both current and future scenarios to provide insights into the latest U.S. commercial vehicle fleet characteristics and their implications on energy and emissions. This study helps policymakers and practitioners advance the commercial fleet generation for emission models. It also deepens the understanding of the emission reduction potential of the commercial fleet under various fleet projections.

2021 US VIUS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Isotope dependence of transport in ST40 hot ion mode plasmas

The ST40 compact, high-field spherical tokamak, operating at 2.1 T and with 1.8 MW of neutral beam heating, achieved central carbon impurity ion temperatures in excess of 10 keV, surpassing their business milestone of 100 M °C (8.6 keV). The high temperature discharges were in the hot ion mode, with $T_i \gg T_e$, and they were achieved in both hydrogen and deuterium plasmas with deuterium neutral beam injection. In order to achieve the high temperature scenarios, careful wall conditioning and scenario optimization was carried out in $H^0 \rightarrow H^+$, $D^0 \rightarrow H^+$, and finally in $D^0 \rightarrow D^+$ plasmas. The TRANSP transport code was employed to study the dependence of confinement and transport on isotopic mass, and the conditions that led to the high measured central ion temperatures in the $D^0 \rightarrow H^+$ and $D^0 \rightarrow D^+$ plasmas. The kinetic profiles input into TRANSP were inferred from line-of-sight and limited radial measurements as well as consistency with a number of other experimental constraints. The TRANSP results first showed that the main species central ion temperature was only 0.5–1 keV lower than the measured carbon impurity temperature, and thus in the high performance plasmas also surpassed the 100 M °C level. TRANSP also showed that while the electron thermal conduction loss was dominant, reductions in central ion transport, and an effective decoupling of the ions from the electrons, led to an increase in central ion temperatures with increasing plasma mass. In fact, the associated confinement times exhibited a strong dependence on the isotopic mass of the thermal plasma. These preliminary results are foundations for dedicated experiments with full kinetic profile measurements on ST40 in the next run campaign.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

A use-case-driven approach for demonstrating the added value of digitalisation in wind energy

Digitalisation is one of the key drivers for reducing the costs and risks of wind energy. When considering whether to embark on a digitalisation initiative, two key questions arise. The first is what business or operational opportunities might feasibly be addressed and the second is which of the many potential aspects of digitalisation are relevant to those opportunities. In this work, we show how these questions can be answered with a use-case-driven approach, based around a survey aiming to collect and collate the main "pain points" (or everyday challenges) of people in the wind energy sector. Although the relatively low number of participants of the survey (46) means that the results should only be used indicatively, it is still possible to make some general recommendations for priorities for digitalisation efforts in the wind energy sector. Firstly, digitalisation efforts should focus both on supporting people carrying out cross-lifecycle tasks, in particular sharing data, managing data, undertaking general data analyses and accessing data. Tools to do this should deal with varying data formats and naming conventions, make metadata more accessible, define data and metadata standards, make more data publicly available and improve the quality of data. Secondly, efforts should also focus on supporting people in the wind farm operational phase, in particular with failure detection, fault diagnosis, failure rate modelling and predictive maintenance. Solutions to do this should focus on accessible and validated tools for fault detection, cloud or other data pipeline solutions for SCADA data and tools for exhaustive data documentation. Finally, digitalisation efforts should focus on better communicating and helping people become aware of existing solutions and tools, as well as on helping people to exert a stronger influence on possible solutions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Resource Assessment for Distributed Wind Energy: An Evaluation of Best-Practice Methods in the Continental US

Current wind resources within the United States (US) indicate a potential to profitably install nearly 1,400 gigawatts of distributed wind (DW) capacity. This amount is equivalent to over half of the United States’ current energy demand from electricity, making it enough to power millions of homes and businesses and replace countless fossil fuel-based generating plants. Despite the potential growth of DW in the US, deployments are presently hindered by a lack of confidence in resource estimation methods. One potential challenge is that smaller-scale turbines, with hub heights of 40 meters or less, are disproportionately impacted by obstacles such as buildings and vegetation. These obstacles may produce complex wake effects, best modeled with high-fidelity complex fluid dynamics (CFD) models that are too computationally expensive to use for routine siting and resource assessment. Thus, installers today make use of heuristics and simple equations to approximate the impact of obstacles while also leveraging long-term resource data from commercial or publicly available atmospheric models. This study evaluates these historical and commonly used methods alongside new lower-order obstacle models produced from CFD simulations and measurement-based bias correction. The preliminary results from this study show the importance of taking care in the choice and application of mesoscale atmospheric models and the significant value of bias correction using measurements from nearby meteorological towers. Detailed obstacle modeling provides only modest additional gains in performance and, in some cases, can add error, especially at sites where turbines have already been located to avoid obvious impact from upwind obstacles. These findings reinforce the importance of collecting in situ measurements and suggest that obstacle models may be better applied in practice to automated or computer-aided siting, rather than in economic wind resource assessments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Climate change impacts the spread potential of wheat stem rust, a significant crop disease

Abstract Long range atmospheric transport is an important pathway for the spread of plant pathogens, such as rust fungi which can devastate cereal crop health and food security worldwide. In recent years, serious concern has been caused by the evolution of new virulent races of Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici , a pathogen causing wheat stem rust that can result in close to 100% yield losses on susceptible wheat cultivars in favourable weather conditions. We applied an Earth system model to compare the suitability of the current climate and a business-as-usual climate scenario (RCP 8.5) for 2100 for wheat stem rust. Although there are large uncertainties in modelling changes in disease spread, we focus in this paper on the changes which are likely to be robust to model assumptions. We show that the warmer climate with lower relative humidity and enhanced turbulence will lead to ∼40% increase in the urediniospore emitting potential of an infected field as global average. The main predicted changes in the atmospheric long-range transport include reduced connections between Europe, Africa and South Asia, and increased frequency of spores crossing the mid-latitude oceans. Due to reduction in subfreezing conditions, the overwintering areas of the fungus will expand. On the other hand, projected drier conditions will reduce substantially the probability of an infection starting from deposited spores, except in irrigated fields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗