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At least 325 records · Page 18

Improving our fundamental understanding of the role of aerosol-cloud interactions in the climate system

The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth’s clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from pre-industrial time. General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol-cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions but significant challenges exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. Lastly, we suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol-cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigation of Passive Atmospheric Sounding Using Millimeter- and Submillimeter- Wavelength Channels

This report summarizes progress made during the period from July 1, 1994 through June 30, 1996 on the development of satellite-based observational techniques for high resolution imaging of precipitation and sounding of atmospheric ice and water vapor using passive microwave radiometers in the millimeter (MMW)- and submillimeter (SMMW)-wavelength. This is being achieved by radiative transfer modeling a millimeter and submillimeter wave frequencies and by the development and operation of an airborne millimeter wave imaging radiometer (MIR). The MIR has been used in both airborne and ground-based experiments. Its primary application is to provide calibrated radiometric imagery to verify MMW and SMMW radiative transfer models in clear air, cloud, and precipitation and to develop retrieval techniques using MMW and SMMW channels. The MIR imagery over convective storm cells has been used to illustrate the potentially useful cloud and water vapor sensing and storm-cell mapping capabilities of SMMW channels. The radiometric data has also been used to analyze radiative transfer model discrepancies caused by water vapor errors in radiosondes. The MMW and SMMW channels can be used to extend the altitude that water vapor sounding can be performed up into the lower stratosphere. Together, the use of both SMMW and MMW channels are expected to provide additional observational degrees of freedom related to cloud ice particle size.

Gasiewski, Albin J.↗

Cloud optical thickness feedbacks in the CO2 climate problem

A radiative-convective equilibrium model is developed and applied to study cloud optical thickness feedbacks in the CO2 climate problem. The basic hypothesis is that in the warmer and moister CO2-rich atmosphere, cloud liquid water content will generally be larger too. For clouds other than thin cirrus the result is to increase the albedo more than to increase the greenhouse effect. Thus, the sign of the feedback is negative: cloud optical properties act as a thermostat and alter in such a way as to reduce the surface and tropospheric warming caused by the addition of CO2. This negative feedback can be substantial. When observational estimates of the temperature dependence of cloud liquid water content are employed in the model, the surface temperature change caused by doubling CO2 is reduced by about one half. This result is obtained for global and annual average conditions, no change in cloud amount or altitude, and constant relative humidity. These idealizations, together with other simplifications typical of one-dimensional radiative-convective climate models, render the result tentative. Further study of cloud optical property feedbacks is warranted, however, because the climate is apparently so sensitive to them.

Somerville, R. C. J.↗

A Comprehensive Forward Model for Spaceborne Radar Instruments

We present the development and validation of a comprehensive forward model designed to enhance remote sensing capabilities of spaceborne radar instruments. To overcome limitations in existing models, we integrated a Discrete Dipole Approximation (DDA) cloud scattering database into our Radiative Transfer Model (RTM), focusing on microwave frequencies. By simulating the optical properties of non-spherical frozen hydrometeors, the DDA technique effectively reduced discrepancies between simulated and observed values, surpassing traditional Mie tables. The evaluation of DDA lookup tables involved comparisons with a collocated dataset comprising short-term forecasts and satellite microwave data, providing evidence of their superiority. Additionally, we address the challenges of assimilating active radar measurements, which offer vertically resolved insights into clouds and precipitation. We explored the assimilation of spaceborne radar measurements in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models by integrating a forward radar model, along with its adjoint and tangent linear, into the data assimilation system. Evaluation using CloudSat measurements demonstrated promising agreement between simulations and observations, particularly when the input hydrometeor profiles aligned with the measured reflectivity profiles, showcasing the potential of the developed forward radar model. Moreover, we discuss other challenges in radar measurement assimilation within NWP models, including potential observation errors and biases.

Isaac Moradi↗

Microphysics, Radiation and Surface Processes in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model

The response of cloud systems to their environment is an important link in a chain of processes responsible for monsoons, frontal depression, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes and other climate variations (e.g., 30-60 day intra-seasonal oscillations). Numerical models of cloud properties provide essential insights into the interactions of clouds with each other, with their surroundings, and with land and ocean surfaces. Significant advances are currently being made in the modeling of rainfall and rain-related cloud processes, ranging in scales from the very small up to the simulation of an extensive population of raining cumulus clouds in a tropical- or midlatitude-storm environment. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is a multi-dimensional nonhydrostatic dynamic/microphysical cloud resolving model. It has been used to simulate many different mesoscale convective systems that occurred in various geographic locations. In this paper, recent GCE model improvements (microphysics, radiation and surface processes) will be described as well as their impact on the development of precipitation events from various geographic locations. The performance of these new physical processes will be examined by comparing the model results with observations. In addition, the explicit interactive processes between cloud, radiation and surface processes will be discussed.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

An extensible perturbed parameter ensemble for the Community Atmosphere Model version 6

This paper documents the methodology and preliminary results from a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) technique, where multiple parameters are varied simultaneously and the parameter values are determined with Latin hypercube sampling. This is done with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). We apply the PPE method to CESM2–CAM6 to understand climate sensitivity to atmospheric physics parameters. The initial simulations vary 45 parameters in the microphysics, convection, turbulence and aerosol schemes with 263 ensemble members. These atmospheric parameters are typically the most uncertain in many climate models. Control simulations and targeted simulations to understand climate forcing due to aerosols and fast climate feedbacks are analyzed. The use of various emulators is explored in the multi-dimensional space mapping input parameters to output metrics. Parameter impacts on various model outputs, such as radiation, cloud and aerosol properties, are evaluated. Machine learning is also used to probe optimal parameter values against observations. Our findings show that PPE is a valuable tool for climate uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, by varying many parameters simultaneously, we find that many different combinations of parameter values can produce results consistent with observations, and thus careful analysis of tuning is important. The CESM2–CAM6 PPE is publicly available and extensible to other configurations to address questions of other model processes in the atmosphere and other model components (e.g., coupling to the land surface).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Extensible Perturbed Parameter Ensemble for the Community Atmosphere Model Version 6

This paper documents the methodology and preliminary results from a Perturbed Parameter Ensemble (PPE) technique, where multiple parameters are varied simultaneously and the parameter values are determined with Latin hypercube sampling. This is done with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). We apply the PPE method to CESM2-CAM6 to understand climate sensitivity to atmospheric physics parameters. The initial simulations vary 45 parameters in the microphysics, convection, turbulence and aerosol schemes with 263 ensemble members. These atmospheric parameters are typically the most uncertain in many climate models. Control simulations are analyzed and targeted simulations to understand climate forcing due to aerosols and fast climate feedbacks. The use of various emulators is explored in the multi- dimensional space mapping input parameters to output metrics. Parameter impacts on various model outputs, such as radiation, cloud and aerosol properties are evaluated. Machine learning is also used to probe optimal parameter values against observations. Our findings show that using PPE is a valuable tool for climate uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, by varying many parameters simultaneously, we find that many different combinations of parameter values can produce results consistent with observations, and thus careful analysis of tuning is important. The CESM2-CAM6 PPE is publicly available, and extensible to other configurations to address questions of other model processes in the atmosphere and other model components (e.g. coupling to the land surface).

Machine learning↗

Overview of CERES Cloud Properties Derived From VIRS AND MODIS DATA

Simultaneous measurement of radiation and cloud fields on a global basis is recognized as a key component in understanding and modeling the interaction between clouds and radiation at the top of the atmosphere, at the surface, and within the atmosphere. The NASA Clouds and Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) Project (Wielicki et al., 1998) began addressing this issue in 1998 with its first broadband shortwave and longwave scanner on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). This was followed by the launch of two CERES scanners each on Terra and Aqua during late 1999 and early 2002, respectively. When combined, these satellites should provide the most comprehensive global characterization of clouds and radiation to date. Unfortunately, the TRMM scanner failed during late 1998. The Terra and Aqua scanners continue to operate, however, providing measurements at a minimum of 4 local times each day. CERES was designed to scan in tandem with high resolution imagers so that the cloud conditions could be evaluated for every CERES measurement. The cloud properties are essential for converting CERES radiances shortwave albedo and longwave fluxes needed to define the radiation budget (ERB). They are also needed to unravel the impact of clouds on the ERB. The 5-channel, 2-km Visible Infrared Scanner (VIRS) on the TRMM and the 36-channel 1-km Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Terra and Aqua are analyzed to define the cloud properties for each CERES footprint. To minimize inter-satellite differences and aid the development of useful climate-scale measurements, it was necessary to ensure that each satellite imager is calibrated in a fashion consistent with its counterpart on the other CERES satellites (Minnis et al., 2006) and that the algorithms are as similar as possible for all of the imagers. Thus, a set of cloud detection and retrieval algorithms were developed that could be applied to all three imagers utilizing as few channels as possible while producing stable and accurate cloud properties. This paper discusses the algorithms and results of applying those techniques to more than 5 years of Terra MODIS, 3 years of Aqua MODIS, and 4 years of TRMM VIRS data.

Minis, Patrick↗

Microphysics, Radiation and Surface Processes in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model

One of the most promising methods to test the representation of cloud processes used in climate models is to use observations together with Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs). The CRMs use more sophisticated and realistic representations of cloud microphysical processes, and they can reasonably well resolve the time evolution, structure, and life cycles of clouds and cloud systems (size about 2-200 km). The CRMs also allow explicit interaction between out-going longwave (cooling) and in-coming solar (heating) radiation with clouds. Observations can provide the initial conditions and validation for CRM results. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model, a CRM, has been developed and improved at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center over the past two decades. The GCE model has been used to understand the following: 1) water and energy cycles and their roles in the tropical climate system; 2) the vertical redistribution of ozone and trace constituents by individual clouds and well organized convective systems over various spatial scales; 3) the relationship between the vertical distribution of latent heating (phase change of water) and the large-scale (pre-storm) environment; 4) the validity of assumptions used in the representation of cloud processes in climate and global circulation models; and 5) the representation of cloud microphysical processes and their interaction with radiative forcing over tropical and midlatitude regions. Four-dimensional cloud and latent heating fields simulated from the GCE model have been provided to the TRMM Science Data and Information System (TSDIS) to develop and improve algorithms for retrieving rainfall and latent heating rates for TRMM and the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS). More than 90 referred papers using the GCE model have been published in the last two decades. Also, more than 10 national and international universities are currently using the GCE model for research and teaching. In this talk, five specific major GCE improvements: (1) ice microphysics, (2) longwave and shortwave radiative transfer processes, (3) land surface processes, (4) ocean surface fluxes and (5) ocean mixed layer processes are presented. The performance of these new GCE improvements will be examined. Observations are used for model validation.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Sea ice-atmospheric interaction: Application of multispectral satellite data in polar surface energy flux estimates

This is the third annual report on: Sea Ice-Atmosphere Interaction - Application of Multispectral Satellite Data in Polar Surface Energy Flux Estimates. The main emphasis during the past year was on: radiative flux estimates from satellite data; intercomparison of satellite and ground-based cloud amounts; radiative cloud forcing; calibration of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) visible channels and comparison of two satellite derived albedo data sets; and on flux modeling for leads. Major topics covered are arctic clouds and radiation; snow and ice albedo, and leads and modeling.

Steffen, Konrad↗

The Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC 2 ) v1.1: an open-source ground-based lidar and radar instrument simulator and subcolumn generator for large-scale models

Abstract. Climate models are essential for our comprehensive understanding of Earth's atmosphere and can provide critical insights on future changes decades ahead. Because of these critical roles, today's climate models are continuously being developed and evaluated using constraining observations and measurements obtained by satellites, airborne, and ground-based instruments. Instrument simulators can provide a bridge between the measured or retrieved quantities and their sampling in models and field observations while considering instrument sensitivity limitations. Here we present the Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC2), an open-source ground-based lidar and radar instrument simulator and subcolumn generator, specifically designed for large-scale models, in particular climate models, but also applicable to high-resolution model output. EMC2 provides a flexible framework enabling direct comparison of model output with ground-based observations, including generation of subcolumns that may statistically represent finer model spatial resolutions. In addition, EMC2 emulates ground-based (and air- or space-borne) measurements while remaining faithful to large-scale models' physical assumptions implemented in their cloud or radiation schemes. The simulator uses either single particle or bulk particle size distribution lookup tables, depending on the selected scheme approach, to perform the forward calculations. To facilitate model evaluation, EMC2 also includes three hydrometeor classification methods, namely, radar- and sounding-based cloud and precipitation detection and classification, lidar-based phase classification, and a Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package (COSP) lidar simulator emulator. The software is written in Python, is easy to use, and can be straightforwardly customized for different models, radars, and lidars. Following the description of the logic, functionality, features, and software structure of EMC2, we present a case study of highly supercooled mixed-phase cloud based on measurements from the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE). We compare observations with the application of EMC2 to outputs from four configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model (ModelE3) in single-column model (SCM) mode and from a large-eddy simulation (LES) model. We show that two of the four ModelE3 configurations can form and maintain highly supercooled precipitating cloud for several hours, consistent with observations and LES. While our focus is on one of these ModelE3 configurations, which performed slightly better in this case study, both of these configurations and the LES results post-processed with EMC2 generally provide reasonable agreement with observed lidar and radar variables. As briefly demonstrated here, EMC2 can provide a lightweight and flexible framework for comparing the results of both large-scale and high-resolution models directly with observations, with relatively little overhead and multiple options for achieving consistency with model microphysical or radiation scheme physics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Investigation of Cloud Properties and Atmospheric Profiles with Modis

A major milestone was accomplished with the delivery of all five University of Wisconsin MODIS Level 2 science production software packages to the Science Data Support Team (SDST) for integration. These deliveries were the culmination of months of design and testing, with most of the work focused on tasks peripheral to the actual science contained in the code. LTW hosted a MODIS infrared calibration workshop in September. Considerable progress has been made by MCST, with help from LTW, in refining the calibration algorithm, and in identifying and characterization outstanding problems. Work continues on characterizing the effects of non-blackbody earth surfaces on atmospheric profile retrievals and modeling radiative transfer through cirrus clouds.

Menzel, Paul↗

Inverse Modeling of the Initial Stage of the 1991 Pinatubo Volcanic Cloud Accounting for Radiative Feedback of Volcanic Ash

The way volcanic clouds evolve is very sensitive to the initial spatial 3D distributions of volcanic materials, which are often unknown. In this study, we conducted inverse modeling of the Mt. Pinatubo cloud using TOMS 2D mapping of Aerosol Index and SO 2 loading during the first three post-eruption days to estimate the time-dependent emissions profiles and initial 3D spatial distributions of volcanic ash and SO 2 . We account for aerosol radiative feedback and dynamic lofting of volcanic ash in the inversion calculations for the first time. This resulted in a lower ash injection height (by 1.5 km for ash) than without ash radiative feedback. The Pinatubo eruption ejected ≈77% of fine ash at 12 to 23 km, ≈65% of SO 2 at 18–25 km. In contrast with previous studies, which suggested that all volcanic materials were emitted above the tropopause, a significant fraction of SO 2 (5.1 of 15.5 Mt) and fine ash (37.2 of 66.5 Mt) were ejected in the troposphere, where SO 2 quickly oxidized into sulfate aerosol that is short-lived in the troposphere. This explains the early presence of sulfate aerosols in the plume and why the models can reproduce the observed volcanic aerosols' optical depth (AOD), assuming lower-than-observed SO 2 emission in the stratosphere. Despite the quicker than in observations build-up of sulfate AOD, in a month after the eruption, the evolution of the Pinatubo AOD simulated using the obtained ash and SO 2 initial distributions converges with the available stratospheric aerosol and gas experiment (SAGE) observations.

Pinatubo volcanic ash and SO2 emissions↗

Carbon Dioxide Clouds at High Altitude in the Tropics and in an Early Dense Martian Atmosphere

We use a time dependent, microphysical cloud model to study the formation of carbon dioxide clouds in the Martian atmosphere. Laboratory studies by Glandor et al. show that high critical supersaturations are required for cloud particle nucleation and that surface kinetic growth is not limited. These conditions, which are similar to those for cirrus clouds on Earth, lead to the formation of carbon dioxide ice particles with radii greater than 500 micrometers and concentrations of less than 0.1 cm(exp -3) for typical atmospheric conditions. Within the current Martian atmosphere, CO2 cloud formation is possible at the poles during winter and at high altitudes in the tropics during periods of increased atmospheric dust loading. In both cases, temperature perturbations of several degrees below the CO2 saturation temperature are required to nucleate new cloud particles suggesting that dynamical processes are the most common initiators of carbon dioxide clouds rather than diabatic cooling. The microphysical cloud model, coupled to a two-stream radiative transfer model, is used to reexamine the impact of CO2 clouds on the surface temperature within a dense CO2 atmosphere. The formation of carbon dioxide clouds leads to a warmer surface than what would be expected for clear sky conditions. The amount of warming is sensitive to the presence of dust and water vapor in the atmosphere, both of which act to dampen cloud effects. The radiative warming associated with cloud formation, as well as latent heating, work to dissipate the clouds when present. Thus, clouds never last for periods much longer than several days, limiting their overall effectiveness for warming the surface. The time average cloud optical depth is approximately unity leading to a 5-10 K warming, depending on the surface pressure. However, the surface temperature does not rise about the freezing point of liquid water even for pressures as high as 5 bars, at a solar luminosity of 75% the current value.

Colaprete, Anthony↗

Diurnal, Seasonal, and Interannual Variations of Cloud Properties Derived for CERES From Imager Data

Simultaneous measurement of the radiation and cloud fields on a global basis is a key component in the effort to understand and model the interaction between clouds and radiation at the top of the atmosphere, at the surface, and within the atmosphere. The NASA Clouds and Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) Project, begun in 1998, is meeting this need. Broadband shortwave (SW) and longwave radiance measurements taken by the CERES scanners at resolutions between 10 and 20 km on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Terra, and Aqua satellites are matched to simultaneous retrievals of cloud height, phase, particle size, water path, and optical depth OD from the TRMM Visible Infrared Scanner (VIRS) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Terra and Aqua. Besides aiding the interpretation of the broadband radiances, the CERES cloud properties are valuable for understanding cloud variations at a variety of scales. In this paper, the resulting CERES cloud data taken to date are averaged at several temporal scales to examine the temporal and spatial variability of the cloud properties on a global scale at a 1 resolution.

Minnis, Patrick↗

Small-Scale Variability of Large Cloud Drops

Cloud droplet size distribution is one of the most fundamental subjects in cloud physics. Understanding of spatial distribution and small-scale fluctuations of cloud droplets is essential for both cloud physics and atmospheric radiation. For cloud physics, it relates to the coalescence growth of raindrops while for radiation, it has a strong impact on a cloud's radiative properties. Most of the existing cloud radiation and precipitation formation models assume that the mean number of drops with a given radius varies proportionally to volume. The analysis of microphysical data on liquid water drop sizes shows that, for sufficiently small volumes, the number is proportional to the drop size dependent power of the volume. For abundant small drops present, the exponent is 1 as assumed in the conventional approach. However, for rarer large drops, the exponents fall below unity. At small scales, therefore, the mean number of large drops decreases with volume at a slower rate than the conventional approach assumes, suggesting more large drops at these scales than conventional models account for; their impact is consequently underestimated. Size dependent models of spatial distribution of cloud drops that simulate the observed power laws show strong drop clustering, the more so the larger the drops. The degree of clustering is determined by the observed exponents. The strong clustering of large drops arises naturally from the observed power-law statistics. Current theories of photon-cloud interaction and warm rain formation will need radical revision in order to produce these statistics; their underlying equations are unable to yield the observed power law.

Marshak, Alexander↗

Microwave radiative transfer through horizontally inhomogeneous precipitating clouds

Recent advances in cloud microphysical models have led to realistic three-dimensional distributions of cloud constituents. Radiative transfer schemes can make use of this detailed knowledge in order to study the effects of horizontal as well as vertical inhomogeneities within clouds. This study looks specifically at the differences between three-dimensional radiative transfer results and those obtained by plane parallel, independent pixel approximations in the microwave spectrum. A three-dimensional discrete ordinates method as well as a backward Monte Carlo method are used to calculate realistic radiances emerging from the cloud. Analyses between these models and independent pixel approximations reveal that plane parallel approximations introduce two distinct types of errors. The first error is physical in nature and is related to the fact that plane parallel approximations do not allow energy to leak out of dense areas into surrouding areas. In general, it was found that these errors are quite small for emission-dominated frequencies (37 GHz and lower) and that physical errors are highly pronounced only at scattering frequencies (85 GHz) where large deviations and biases up to 8 K averaged over the entire cloud were found. The second error is more geometric in nature and is related to the fact that plane parallel approximations cannot accommodate physical boundaries in the horizontal dimension for off-nadir viewing angles. The geometric errors were comparable in magnitude for all frequencies. Their magnitude, however, depends on a number of factors including the scheme used to deal with the edge, the nature of the surface, and the viewing angle.

Roberti, Laura↗