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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2001

Flight Test Analysis of the Forces and Moments Imparted on a B737-100 Airplane During Wake Vortex Encounters

Aircraft travel has become a major form of transportation. Several of our major airports are operating near their capacity limit, increasing congestion and delays for travelers. As a result, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has been working in conjunction with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), airline operators, and the airline industry to increase airport capacity without sacrificing public safety. One solution to the problem is to increase the number of airports and build new. runways; yet, this solution is becoming increasingly difficult due to limited space. A better solution is to increase the production per runway. This solution increases the possibility that one aircraft will encounter the trailing wake of another aircraft. Hazardous wake vortex encounters occur when an aircraft encounters the wake produced by a heavier aircraft. This heavy-load aircraft produces high-intensity wake turbulence that redistributes the aerodynamic loads of trailing smaller aircraft. This situation is particularly hazardous for smaller aircraft during takeoffs and landings. In order to gain a better understanding of the wake-vortex/aircraft encounter phenomena, NASA Langley Research Center conducted a series of flight tests from 1995 through 1997. These tests were designed to gather data for the development a wake encounter and wake-measurement data set with the accompanying atmospheric state information. This data set is being compiled into a database that can be used by wake vortex researchers to compare with experimental and computational results. The purpose of this research is to derive and implement a procedure for calculating the wake-vortex/aircraft interaction portion of that database by using the data recorded during those flight tests. There were three objectives to this research. Initially, the wake-induced forces and moments from each flight were analyzed based on varying flap deflection angles. The flap setting alternated between 15 and 30 degrees while the separation distance remained constant. This examination was performed to determine if increases in flap deflection would increase or decrease the effects of the wake-induced forces and moments. Next, the wake-induced forces and moments from each flight were analyzed based on separation distances of 1-3 nautical miles. In this comparison, flap deflection was held constant at 30 degrees. The purpose of this study was to determine if increased separation distances reduced the effects of the wake vortex on the aircraft. The last objective compared the wake-induced forces and moments of each flight as it executed a series of maneuvers through the wake-vortex. This analysis was conducted to examine the impact of the wake on the B737 as it traversed the wake horizontally and vertically. Results from the first analysis indicated that there was no difference in wake effect at flap deflections of 15 and 30 degrees. This conclusion is evidenced in the cases of the wake-induced sideforce, rolling moment, and yawing moment. The wake-induced lift, drag, and pitching moment cases yielded less conclusive results. The second analysis compared the wake-induced forces and moments at separation distances of 1-3 nautical miles. Results indicated that there was no significant difference in the wake-induced lift, drag, sideforce, or yawing moment coefficients. The analysis compared the wake-induced forces and moments based on different flight maneuvers. It was found that the wake-induced forces and moments had the greatest impact on out-to-in and in-to-out maneuvers.

Roberts, Chistopher L.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Enabling Research Tools for Sustained Climate Assessment

The U.S. Global Change Research Program Sustained Assessment process benefits from long-term investments in Earth science research that enable the scientific community to conduct assessment-relevant science. To this end, NASA initiated several research programs over the past five years to support the Earth observation community in developing indicators, datasets, research products, and tools to support ongoing and future National Climate Assessments. These activities complement NASA's ongoing Earth science research programs. One aspect of the assessment portfolio funds four "enabling tools" projects at NASA research centers. Each tool leverages existing capacity within the center, but has developed tailored applications and products for National Climate Assessments. The four projects build on the capabilities of a global atmospheric reanalysis (MERRA-2), a continental U.S. land surface reanalysis (NCA-LDAS), the NASA Earth Exchange (NEX), and a Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES). Here, we provide a brief overview of each enabling tool, highlighting the ways in which it has advanced assessment science to date. We also discuss how the assessment community can access and utilize these tools for National Climate Assessments and other sustained assessment activities.

Research↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physical Properties of Hilti HIT-RE 500 V3 After Irradiation: Slant Shear, Tensile, Flexural, and Compressive

There are various applications in which epoxy adhesives may be used within hot-cell environments. These epoxies currently see limited use within hot cells since it is known that organics see degradation after small doses even as low as 50 kilogray (kGy). These losses in physical property strengths limit the use of these epoxies to non-structural applications. In modern construction, however, the use of epoxies to bond structural components such as rebar or threaded anchors is becoming increasingly prevalent. To employ these types of materials the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has begun investigating the specific degradation properties of epoxies for use in structural applications in environments where radiation is present. Hilti HIT-RE 500 V3 is used extensively in new construction and renovation projects across the world. The INL has conducted various tests on this epoxy for low dose environments. These tests include tensile, flexural, compression, and slant shear tests following the American Society for Testing Material International (ASTM) standards D638, D790, D695, and C882/882M respectively. Two sample sets for each test were created where the baseline specimens were not irradiated, and another set was irradiated to an accumulated dose of approximately 50-60 kGy. All the samples were destructively tested and analyzed focusing on the change in physical properties, examples of these tests are shown in Figures 1-4. Tensile testing results indicate a 0.9% loss in maximum load capacity, a 0.5% loss in tensile stress at maximum load, a 1.4% loss in tensile strain at break, and a 15% decrease in modulus of elasticity. Flexural testing results display an increase in all the following: 12% in strain at maximum load, 10% in maximum load capacity, 5% in stress at maximum load, and 3% in young’s modulus. The compressive physical properties after irradiation display a 1% increase in maximum load, a 3% decrease in stress at yield, and a 5% decrease in modulus of elasticity. The maximum compressive stress saw no measurable change after irradiation. The slant shear specimens after irradiation displayed a 2% increase in maximum load capacity and maximum compressive stress. Though a structural analysis would have to be completed as is normal for building design the increases and decreases in the measured physical properties indicate that this material may be used for structural applications in low dose hot-cell environments without adhesive failure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Consumer Benefits of Clean Energy: Energy Efficiency

Meeting national and state decarbonization goals requires a transition to clean energy technologies. Energy efficiency, demand flexibility, renewable energy and storage can reduce consumers’ electricity bills, lower total electricity system costs, and provide health and resilience benefits. Berkeley Lab developed a series of briefs that explore these consumer benefits of a clean energy transition. This brief focuses on energy efficiency benefits, and builds on prior analysis from Berkeley Lab’s Cost of Saved Energy database. We show that energy efficiency remains a low-cost energy and capacity resource; the levelized cost of saving energy for the programs included in the analysis is $\$0.02$/kilowatt-hour and the cost of saving peak demand is less $\$120$/kilowatt. Understanding the impact of the program mix, portfolio size, and duration of implementation for customer-funded energy efficiency portfolios can guide regulatory oversight of these programs, help utilities better utilize energy efficiency as a resource, and inform building energy decarbonization policies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2020

High-capacity ATHLETE Offloader Mobility Constructor Concept for Human Surface Exploration

Using cross-cabled, winch-tendon four-bar frames, a new Artemis-class ATHLETE system is a multi-limbed robotic mobility platform that is designed for surface traverse, precision placement, and offloading of heavy habitats and other large human exploration payloads from high-decked landers. Building upon lessons learned from the All-Terrain Hex-Limbed Extra-Terrestrial Explorer (ATHLETE) robotic mobility system developed for Constellation Lunar Surface Systems and Evolvable Mars Campaign, a high-capacity articulated crane / lift vehicle concept has been devised that would be equipped with multi-limb six-degree-of-freedom dexterity for a variety of tasks supporting planetary surface human exploration missions and outposts. The Artemis-class ATHLETE vehicle would use any combination of three to six wheel-onlimb combinations to provide a wide “outrigger” stance to transfer loads from a high center-of-gravity on sloped terrain to low stable carry configurations for long-distance traverses, and be capable of precision docking of payloads to previously positioned elements. The new vehicle concept improves upon previous Constellation-class ATHLETE versions by allowing modular hot-swapping of individual limbs to improve maintenance and flexibility. The extreme-capacity independent limbs can individually function as single cranes, and can be delivered separately via multiple lander manifests for later congregation into self-driving “Tri-ATHLETE” vehicles after delivery to the surface. This paper provides mission architecture targets and vehicle masses for stepped payload capacity values in Earth, Mars, and Lunar gravity environments, and discusses a variety of swappable tools, including wheeled mobility attachments, grippers, excavation tools, repair fixtures, ISRU extraction, winches, block & tackle rigging combinations, 3D printheads, and construction aids.

Wilcox, Brian↗
DOE OSTI2026

Experimental Evaluation of a High-Performance Cold-Climate Heat Pump Using Tandem Vapor-Injection Compressors

A high-performance cold-climate heat pump (CCHP) was developed and experimentally validated through comprehensive laboratory and field testing. The system utilized two equal-size tandem vapor-injection (VI) compressors with an inter-stage flash tank to improve efficiency and capacity retention under subfreezing conditions. Laboratory testing was conducted on a 3-ton prototype in a controlled environmental chamber equipped with calibrated thermocouples, refrigerant-side mass flow and pressure transducers, and precision airflow measurement for energy balance verification. The prototype achieved heating coefficients of performance (COPs) of 4.4 at 47 °F, 3.1 at 17 °F, and 2.0 at –13 °F, while maintaining 88% of its rated heating capacity at –13°F. These results confirm strong low-temperature performance and indicate the potential for significant reductions in electric resistance backup use. A field prototype was installed and monitored in a residential building in Fairbanks, Alaska, during a heating season. Instrumentation included real-time power, temperature, and refrigerant state measurements to evaluate performance under dynamic outdoor conditions. The heat pump operated reliably down to –30 °F, delivering 75% of its rated heating capacity with a COP of 1.8, while maintaining stable operation, effective defrost control, and indoor comfort without auxiliary heating. The combined laboratory and field results demonstrate that the tandem VI compressor configuration provides a practical and energy-efficient approach for residential heat pumps designed for cold and very cold climate regions.

Hu, Yifeng [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000242875185)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact Analysis of Transitioning to Heat Pump Rooftop Units for the U.S. Commercial Building Stock

Twenty percent (25%) of the energy consumed by the U.S. commercial building sector is from on-site combustion of fossil fuels for space heating. Part of decarbonizing U.S. energy systems to meet climate initiatives will require electrification of space heating equipment, often by transitioning to heat pumps. Rooftop units (RTU) are the most prominent commercial building HVAC system type and should therefore be prioritized for electrification solutions. However, there is limited understanding of the impact on emissions when considering regional electricity generation methods, as well as the impact of ambient temperature on capacity and efficiency, defrost operation, realistic sizing methodologies, and supplementary heating on overall heat pump performance. This study explores the effects of transitioning all installed, existing RTUs to high-performance heat pump RTUs for the U.S. commercial building stock. The analysis is performed using ComStock (TM), the U.S. Department of Energy's calibrated model of the U.S. commercial building stock. Results show 10% and 9% reductions in stock aggregate energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, respectively. This analysis will help inform the transition to heat pump RTUs for the U.S. commercial building stock.

commercial building↗
DOE OSTI2024

Highly silanized cellulose biocomposites for sustainable insulation materials

Microfibrillated lignocellulose networks, derived from agricultural byproducts, represent an environmentally friendly biogenic material production due to their abundant availability to circular bioeconomy and inherent carbon sink in life cycle analysis. Yet, its vulnerability to moisture and flammability, coupled with challenges in creating highly reinforced insulation materials, poses challenges for the carbon-zero green building sector. Here we address these challenges with a new concept of in-situ grafting polymerization of nanoporous silica in pre-formed lignocellulosic fiber networks. The seamlessly integrating nanoporous silica with cellulose through hydrogen bonding networks enabled us to prepare highly reinforced biogenic composites for green building insulations. A high reinforcement biocomposite with hierarchal arrangements of nanoporous silica within the cellulose network exhibits remarkable attributes. It boasts a thermal conductivity of 24.2 mW·m –1 ·K –1 , a flexural modulus of 942 MPa, and soundproofing with a 20.8 % noise reduction, as well as the fire resistance characterized by an extended time to ignition and a reduced peak heat release rate of 144 kW·m –2 at 35 kW·m –2 of incident radiant heat flux. Furthermore, it demonstrates a reduced water absorption capacity, dropping from 5.12 g·g –1 to 0.75 g·g –1 . Altogether, this study opens the new pathways towards sustainable carbon-zero building materials in the context of circular bioeconomy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2016

Preliminary Assessment of Operational Hazards and Safety Requirements for Airborne Trajectory Management (ABTM) Roadmap Applications

A set of five developmental steps building from the NASA TASAR (Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Requests) concept are described, each providing incrementally more efficiency and capacity benefits to airspace system users and service providers, culminating in a Full Airborne Trajectory Management capability. For each of these steps, the incremental Operational Hazards and Safety Requirements are identified for later use in future formal safety assessments intended to lead to certification and operational approval of the equipment and the associated procedures. Two established safety assessment methodologies that are compliant with the FAA's Safety Management System were used leading to Failure Effects Classifications (FEC) for each of the steps. The most likely FEC for the first three steps, Basic TASAR, Digital TASAR, and 4D TASAR, is "No effect". For step four, Strategic Airborne Trajectory Management, the likely FEC is "Minor". For Full Airborne Trajectory Management (Step 5), the most likely FEC is "Major".

Cotton, William B.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Quantifying the Sun’s Magnetic Stress With the Photospheric Flows

We address the problem of constraining the mechanisms by which a massive amount of energy erupts from the sun at multiple scales, and how the corona is heated to high temperature. These mechanisms are highly dependent on how the magnetic field is stressed. As recommended in Klimchuk et al. white paper, translational and rotational motions of the photospheric magnetic elements are important drivers of the coronal heating that must be accurately characterized. Yet despite an abundance of photospheric observations, many uncertainties remain in measuring these flows that entangle and twist the magnetic field. This white paper states the current capacities for mapping the sun’s photospheric flows, with an emphasis on how to quantify the magnetic stress that builds up free energy and heats the corona. It also provides research avenues on how to go beyond our current limitations, so that the sun’s energy transport between the photosphere and the corona can be more accurately determined.

Raphael Attié↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Novel and Scalable Method for Microencapsulating Salt Hydrate Phase Change Materials in Core–Shell Fibers

Phase change materials (PCMs) are in high demand for applications such as thermal energy storage in buildings, electronics cooling, and thermal management of electric vehicle batteries and data centers. Among these materials, salt hydrate PCMs are particularly attractive due to their high thermal energy storage capacity and low cost. However, they suffer from two major issues: leakage in the melted phase and phase segregation during phase transitions. Microencapsulation is the primary process capable of addressing both of these challenges. However, there is no reliable or scalable method available for microencapsulating salt hydrate PCMs. As a result, the full potential of salt hydrates for building and data center applications has yet to be realized. In this work, we present an innovative method for the microencapsulation of salt hydrate PCMs using a co‐axial pushing technique. This process creates core–shell fibers, with the salt hydrate as the core and a polymer as the shell. Our approach demonstrates strong potential for scalable microencapsulation of salt hydrate PCMs. In conclusion, achieving scalability could enable their widespread use in applications such as data center cooling, battery thermal management, and building climate control.

Sharma, Jaswinder [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ambient mechanosynthesis of flexible two-dimensional covalent organic frameworks

We present the first ambient mechanosynthesis of 16 flexible covalent organic frameworks (COFs) within an hour. Notably, one representative COF exhibited a high iodine uptake capacity of ∼4.3 g g −1 from aqueous solutions and 5.97 g g −1 from vapor. Flexible two-dimensional covalent organic frameworks (2D COFs) constructed from nonplanar building blocks represent an emerging paradigm in COF design. Nevertheless, the prevailing solvothermal synthesis suffers from low time efficiency, environmental unfriendliness, and cumbersome protocols. Here, we address these challenges by developing the first ambient mechanosynthesis of a diverse library of flexible 2D COFs. Sixteen distinct triazine-cored Schiff-base COFs, including five as-yet-unreported ones, were rapidly synthesized via ball milling using 2,4,6-tris(4-aminophenoxy)-1,3,5-triazine (TPT-NH 2 ) and 2,4,6-tris(4-formylphenoxy)-1,3,5-triazine (TPT-CHO) as building blocks. Notably, the representative COF, MC-flexible-COF-1, was synthesized in as little as one hour under mechanosynthesis conditions, whereas it remained unattainable via the traditional solvothermal method, despite prolonged heating and extensive solvent screening. The highly dynamic nature of the imine linkage was unequivocally demonstrated through mechanochemical “scrambling” experiments using molecular model compounds. Furthermore, MC-flexible-COF-1 exhibited a high iodine uptake capacity of ∼4.30 g g −1 from aqueous solutions and 5.97 g g −1 from the vapor phase. This work underscores the immense potential of mechanochemistry as a powerful and sustainable tool for the rapid synthesis of advanced 2D COFs, including those inaccessible via conventional solution-based methods.

Nailwal, Yogendra↗
DOE OSTI2025

In vitro demonstration and in planta characterization of a condensed, reverse TCA (crTCA) cycle

Introduction Plants employ the Calvin-Benson cycle (CBC) to fix atmospheric CO 2 for the production of biomass. The flux of carbon through the CBC is limited by the activity and selectivity of Ribulose-1,5-Bisphosphate Carboxylase/Oxygenase (RuBisCO). Alternative CO 2 fixation pathways that do not use RuBisCO to fix CO 2 have evolved in some anaerobic, autotrophic microorganisms. Methods Rather than modifying existing routes of carbon metabolism in plants, we have developed a synthetic carbon fixation cycle that does not exist in nature but is inspired by metabolisms of bacterial autotrophs. In this work, we build and characterize a condensed, reverse tricarboxylic acid (crTCA) cyclein vitroandin planta. Results We demonstrate that a simple, synthetic cycle can be used to fix carbon in vitro under aerobic and mesophilic conditions and that these enzymes retain activity whenexpressed transientlyin planta. We then evaluate stable transgenic lines ofCamelina sativathat have both phenotypic and physiologic changes. TransgenicC. sativaare shorter than controls with increased rates of photosynthetic CO 2 assimilation and changes in photorespiratory metabolism. Discussion This first iteration of a build-test-learn phase of the crTCA cycle provides promising evidence that this pathway can be used to increase photosynthetic capacity in plants.

Plant Sciences↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting Air Traffic Management Initiatives Using Supervised Learning

Terminal Traffic Management Initiatives (TMIs) such as Ground Stops (GS) and Ground Delay Programs (GDP) are implemented to manage excess demand or lowered capacity at an airport. Air Traffic Flow Management (TFM) specialists identify situations such as aviation constraints, current and forecasted weather conditions, airport demand and capacity, and initiate TMIs for safe and orderly movement of air traffic. In this paper, we outline supervised learning techniques that can be used to predict and recommend TMIs at an airport based on current weather and airport conditions. Our research involves building classic Machine Learning (ML) models such as Logistic Regression, K-Nearest Neighbor, Random Forest and XGBoost, as well as Long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. We trained the models on 3-year historical data (weather, airport demand, capacity and TMIs) from Newark (EWR) airport which was selected based on its higher TMI implementation rates and varied weather conditions. Although Random Forest and XGBoost algorithms are able to predict if a TMI is needed or not, they have difficulty in predicting specific program type. For this purpose, we found that LSTM time-series forecasting models performed better as they also learn from past TMI program type sequences. This study also lays down the foundation for advanced modeling techniques and architectures to predict TMIs in advance for future periods. The ability to predict TMIs in advance will be highly beneficial to the traffic controllers and managers as this will help them to prepare for and manage TMIs more efficiently.

Manoj Agrawal↗
DOE OSTI2026

Making Small-Volume Heat Pump Water Heaters Larger: A Design Framework for Integrated Phase Change Material Heat Exchangers

Those that use electricity for water heating, the majority use resistive elements rather than heat pump water heaters (HPWHs), the latter of which use 60-70% less energy than the former. One major barrier to wider HPWH adoption is the added equipment required, which prevents current 50-80-gallon tanks on the market from fitting into smaller utility closets sized for 30-40 gallons, such as those found in manufactured housing. Additionally, these smaller HPWHs tend to underperform relative to their larger counterparts. One solution that addresses both space and performance concerns is thermal energy storage, and in particular, phase change materials (PCMs). PCMs have been studied extensively in building envelope and HVAC systems, but remain a nascent technology in residential water heating. While water itself has a uniquely high energy storage capacity, PCMs have an even higher energy storage density, thus providing the potential to elevate the performance of 40-gallon HPWHs to that of 50-gallon or larger tanks. This research is part of a larger project that seeks to utilize thermal energy storage to enable decarbonized water heating in low-income communities. In this study, we outline the design process used to produce novel PCM heat exchangers for use in small-volume HPWH tanks, including the identification of design constraints and performance targets relevant to real-world applications. In order to ensure optimal PCM utilization and tank storage capacity, we focus here on co-maximizing surface area and PCM volume in the heat exchangers; therefore, this research targets triply periodic minimal surface (TPMS) lattices. TPMS lattices boast enhanced heat transfer capabilities compared to traditional heat exchanger geometries and offer highly tailorable designs; thus, they pair well with the growing field of additive manufacturing, or 3D printing. Starting with a suite of TPMS lattices, we demonstrate a systematic approach for narrowing down feasible designs that comply with identified constraints while meeting PCM performance objectives.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Virtual Refrigerant Charge Sensing Method for Next-Generation Refrigerant in Residential Heat Pumps

The charge level of refrigerant in heat pump systems significantly affects their operational performance. Virtual refrigerant charge (VRC) sensing technology has been well-established for traditional refrigerants (HFCs and HCFCs) for its low cost compared to physical sensors. However, other than traditional refrigerants, HFOs are increasingly used in next-generation heat pumps; whether these conventional VRC sensing methods remain applicable for heat pump systems utilizing next-generation refrigerants requires further investigation. To address these issues, this study develops a low-cost VRC sensing method for next-generation refrigerant heat pumps used in residential buildings. The developed algorithm is evaluated by using simulation models to evaluate the accuracy, considering an R454B heat pump with a nominal heating capacity of 51K Btu/hr (14.95 kW) as an example, and compared with those of the two reference VRC sensing algorithms. Though the developed VRC sensing algorithm and the two reference methods can accurately predict the charge level for the R454B heat pump system (with mean absolute percentage error for various cooling and heating conditions less than 7%), the developed VRC sensing algorithm uses fewer sensors and improves the overall accuracy for heating conditions by 7.1%, and the accuracy for undercharge cooling conditions 14.2%, compared with a mainstream algorithm. This technology will complement physical leakage detectors, and promote the adoption of next-generation heat pump systems, along with reducing wasted energy and maintenance costs.

Liang, Chenjiyu↗
NASA NTRS2008

Integrated Performance of Next Generation High Data Rate Receiver and AR4JA LDPC Codec for Space Communications

Low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes are the state-of-the-art in forward error correction (FEC) technology that exhibits capacity approaching performance. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has designed a family of LDPC codes that are similar in structure and therefore, leads to a single decoder implementation. The Accumulate-Repeat-by-4-Jagged- Accumulate (AR4JA) code design offers a family of codes with rates 1/2, 2/3, 4/5 and lengths 1024, 4096, 16384 information bits. Performance is less than one dB from capacity for all combinations.Integrating a stand-alone LDPC decoder with a commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) receiver faces additional challenges than building a single receiver-decoder unit from scratch. In this work, we outline the issues and show that these additional challenges can be over-come by simple solutions. To demonstrate that an LDPC decoder can be made to work seamlessly with a COTS receiver, we interface an AR4JA LDPC decoder developed on a field-programmable gate array (FPGA) with a modern high data rate receiver and mea- sure the combined receiver-decoder performance. Through optimizations that include an improved frame synchronizer and different soft-symbol scaling algorithms, we show that a combined implementation loss of less than one dB is possible and therefore, most of the coding gain evidence in theory can also be obtained in practice. Our techniques can benefit any modem that utilizes an advanced FEC code.

Cheng, Michael K.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy storage in combined gas-electric energy transitions models: The case of California

California’s vision for a net-zero future by 2045 relies heavily on variable renewable energy systems. Thus, energy storage - particularly long-duration storage - could play a fundamental role in reliably supplying low-carbon electricity. We study energy storage using the BRIDGES model, a combined gas-electric capacity expansion model for California across multiple investment periods (2025-2045), modeled with progressively decreasing carbon emission targets to a zero emissions by 2045. This least-cost optimization model includes renewable gas production via power-to-gas, long-term storage of energy in gaseous form, electric energy storage such as through batteries and hydrogen storage, and renewable energy generation, all with capacity tracking and investment. Multiple scenarios are evaluated to examine the sensitivity of the optimal storage portfolio to system-level and sector-level parameters. The scenario results show that all electric energy storage systems - which vary in storage duration - are deployed and required in a net-zero California in 2045, amounting to around 75 GW of storage capacity. Lithium ion systems make up approximately 80% of this power capacity and supply most short-run storage needs. Hydrogen storage - in the form of a power-to-gas-to-power system - emerges as a replacement to conventional natural gas storage, comprising most of the total energy storage capacity (~ 4 TWh). This capacity is less than 5% of the current natural gas storage capacity (94 TWh), indicating sufficient room for repurposing part of the gas infrastructure. A demand-side sensitivity analysis proves that higher electricity demand correlates with more builds of Li-ion batteries, while higher industrial heat demand leads to more builds of long-duration storage systems in a net-zero economy. Furthermore, power-to-gas systems satisfy part of the industrial heat demand by locally supplying renewable gas, which overtakes the traditional centralized gas storage and transfers through pipelines, casting significant doubts on the future of the large-scale gas infrastructure.

03 NATURAL GAS↗