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At least 325 records · Page 18

Estimating the Effect of Gypsy Moth Defloiation Using MODIS

The area of North American forests affected by gypsy moth defoliation continues to expand despite efforts to slow the spread. With the increased area of infestation, ecological, environmental and economic concerns about gypsy moth disturbance remain significant, necessitating coordinated, repeatable and comprehensive monitoring of the areas affected. In this study, our primary objective was to estimate the magnitude of defoliation using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery for a gypsy moth outbreak that occurred in the US central Appalachian Mountains in 2000 and 2001. We focused on determining the appropriate spectral MODIS indices and temporal compositing method to best monitor the effects of gypsy moth defoliation. We tested MODIS-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), and two versions of the Normalized Difference Infrared index (NDIIb6 and NDIIb7, using the channels centered on 1640 nm and 2130 nm respectively) for their capacity to map defoliation as estimated by ground observations. In addition, we evaluated three temporal resolutions: daily, 8-day and 16-day data. We validated the results through quantitative comparison to Landsat based defoliation estimates and traditional sketch maps. Our MODIS based defoliation estimates based on NDIIb6 and NDIIb7 closely matched Landsat defoliation estimates derived from field data as well as sketch maps. We conclude that daily MODIS data can be used with confidence to monitor insect defoliation on an annual time scale, at least for larger patches (greater than 0.63 km2). Eight-day and 16-day MODIS composites may be of lesser use due to the ephemeral character of disturbance by the gypsy moth.

deBeurs, K. M.↗

Summary Analysis of Different Offshore Wind Capacity Density Drivers in Proposed U.S. Projects and Impacts on Progress Towards State and Federal Deployment Targets

Understanding the density of offshore wind development - or the "capacity density" - is important for state and federal offshore wind planning efforts and to track progress towards policy goals. NREL has traditionally assumed a capacity density of 3 megawatts per square kilometer (MW/km2) when estimating the U.S. project pipeline (Musial et al. 2022), but capacity densities for existing European offshore wind farms ranged from 2-19 MW/km2 (Borrmann et al. 2018). We track the expected capacity densities of the proposed U.S. projects in the East Coast and make an analysis by state and by developer to identify what are the capacity density norms in the industry and whether the state in which the development efforts are taking place has some impact on capacity density. We also analyze the effects of the area occupied by station keeping systems on capacity density for lease areas dedicated to floating projects and provide a list of main capacity density drivers. This summary analysis sets a baseline to study how different capacity density drivers could impact the progress towards state and federal deployment targets. Given the currently delineated Renewable Energy Areas in the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) and the basis from the summary analysis, we estimate the expected offshore wind deployment over time federally and by state and compare it to the state and federal deployment targets. The proposed analysis helps identify gaps and needs to meet state and federal targets, which provides sufficient information to propose strategic supply chain and policy planning with the objective of meeting deployment goals.

capacity density↗

Potential and limitations of inferring ecosystem photosynthetic capacity from leaf functional traits

Abstract The aim of this study was to systematically analyze the potential and limitations of using plant functional trait observations from global databases versus in situ data to improve our understanding of vegetation impacts on ecosystem functional properties ( EFP s). Using ecosystem photosynthetic capacity as an example, we first provide an objective approach to derive robust EFP estimates from gross primary productivity ( GPP ) obtained from eddy covariance flux measurements. Second, we investigate the impact of synchronizing EFP s and plant functional traits in time and space to evaluate their relationships, and the extent to which we can benefit from global plant trait databases to explain the variability of ecosystem photosynthetic capacity. Finally, we identify a set of plant functional traits controlling ecosystem photosynthetic capacity at selected sites. Suitable estimates of the ecosystem photosynthetic capacity can be derived from light response curve of GPP responding to radiation (photosynthetically active radiation or absorbed photosynthetically active radiation). Although the effect of climate is minimized in these calculations, the estimates indicate substantial interannual variation of the photosynthetic capacity, even after removing site‐years with confounding factors like disturbance such as fire events. The relationships between foliar nitrogen concentration and ecosystem photosynthetic capacity are tighter when both of the measurements are synchronized in space and time. When using multiple plant traits simultaneously as predictors for ecosystem photosynthetic capacity variation, the combination of leaf carbon to nitrogen ratio with leaf phosphorus content explains the variance of ecosystem photosynthetic capacity best (adjusted R 2 = 0.55). Overall, this study provides an objective approach to identify links between leaf level traits and canopy level processes and highlights the relevance of the dynamic nature of ecosystems. Synchronizing measurements of eddy covariance fluxes and plant traits in time and space is shown to be highly relevant to better understand the importance of intra‐ and interspecific trait variation on ecosystem functioning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterization and adsorption performance of Pb(II) on CuO nanorods synthesized by the hydrothermal method

Highlights: • The nanorods of CuO were synthesized by a hydrothermal route without any surfactant. • X-ray diffraction showed monoclinic structure with space group C{sub 2/c}. • The nanorods show relatively high adsorption capacity for the removal of Pb(II). • The adsorption kinetics could be fitted well by the pseudo-second-order model. • The equilibrium data can be fitted well using the Langmuir isotherm model - Abstract: Copper oxide (CuO) nanorods were synthesized by hydrothermal method. The detailed structural, compositional and optical characterization of this material was also evaluated with XRD, FT-IR, EDS, and UV–vis spectroscopy, which confirmed that the obtained nanorods are well-crystallized CuO and possess good optical properties. SEM and TEM studies revealed that the as-synthesized CuO nanorods are uniform with an average diameter of 17 nm. The adsorption activity of the CuO nanostructures was studied. The adsorption results showed that the CuO nanorods are an effective and efficient adsorbent for the removal of Pb(II) ions. The influence of various operational parameters such as the pH of the solution, the contact time and the initial concentrations were also studied and the results were discussed. The estimated maximum lead ion adsorption capacity of the CuO nanorods was found to be 188.67 mg g{sup −1} at an optimum pH of 6.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Spatially-Explicit Monitoring of Crop Photosynthetic Capacity Through the Use of Space-Based Chlorophyll Fluorescence Data

Plant functional traits such as photosynthetic capacity are critical parameters for terrestrial biosphere models. However, their spatial and temporal characteristics are still poorly represented. In this study, we used satellite observations of sun-induced fluorescence (SIF) to estimate top-of-canopy photosynthetic capacity (maximum carboxylation rate, V(sub cmax) at a reference temperature of 25 deg C) for crops, which was in turn utilized to simulate regional gross primary production (GPP). We first estimate the key parameter, V(sub cmax), in the widely-used FvCB photosynthesis model using field measurements of CO2 and water fluxes during 2007-2012 at seven crop eddy covariance flux sites over the US Corn Belt. The results showed that satellite far-red SIF retrievals have a stronger link to V(sub cmax) at the seasonal scale (R(squared)=0.70 for C4 and R(squared)=0.63 for C3 crop) as compared with widely-used vegetation indices. We calibrate an empirical model linking V(sub cmax) with SIF that was used to estimate spatially and temporally varying crop V(sub cmax) for the US Corn Belt region. The resulting V(sub cmax) maps are used together with meteorological data from MERRA reanalysis data and vegetation structural parameters derived from the satellite- based spectral reflectance data to constrain the Soil-Canopy Observation of Photosynthesis and Energy (SCOPE) balance model in order to estimate regional crop GPP. Our results show a substantial improvement in the seasonal and spatial patterns of cropland GPP when compared with crop yield inventory data. The evaluation with tall tower atmospheric CO2 measurements further supports our estimation of spatiotemporal V(sub cmax) from space-borne SIF. Considering that SIF has a direct link to photosynthetic activity, our findings highlight the potential to infer regional V(sub cmax) using remotely sensed SIF data and to use this information for a better quantification of regional cropland carbon cycles.

Drought↗

Introducing the GeoRePORT Resource Size Tool: Reporting on Geothermal Resource Size Estimations Using the Geothermal Resource Portfolio Optimization and Reporting Technique (GeoRePORT): Preprint

The Geothermal Resource Portfolio Optimization and Reporting Technique (GeoRePORT) was developed with funding from the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office to assist in identifying and pursuing long-term investment strategies through the development of a resource reporting protocol. The assessment protocols used in GeoRePORT allow for comparison of project attributes across locations and geological settings to understand the feasibility of geothermal development. This work introduces the Resource Size Tool, a new feature within the GeoRePORT package that compiles two independent methods for estimating geothermal resource size in terms of energy capacity in MW. Energy production potential for twenty-three case studies was estimated with the Resource Size Tool in order to 1) generate a reasonable range of resource size estimates for a particular geothermal field; 2) illustrate the advantages and limitations of each methodology (such as data input requirements, estimate accuracy and precision, and the appropriate circumstances of use); and 3) test the ability of the resource size tool to provide useful and accurate information for geothermal stakeholders. The tool employs two methods widely used in the geothermal industry: (1) USGS Volumetric and (2) Power Density. Results from our case studies show general overlap between these two methods in terms of resource size estimates; however, they also reveal key differences between the two approaches that should be considered when using such estimates to drive development. First, the two methods rely on different input parameters and therefore one method may be more appropriate and/or accurate for a given project than the other. Second, the Power Density method was found to generate wider ranges of resource size predictions, more consistently aligning with actual power production of the field but with larger scales of error; whereas the USGS Volumetric method predicts narrower ranges but tends to overestimate when compared to current MW production. Future work will refine variables used in the methods with input data from other sections of GeoRePORT and modify uncertainty levels based on the particular datasets used for a given project.

geological↗

New Global Characterization of Landslide Exposure

Landslides triggered by intense rainfall are hazards that impact people and infrastructure across the world, but comprehensively quantifying exposure to these hazards remains challenging. Unlike earthquakes or flooding which cover large areas, landslides occur only in highly susceptible parts of a landscape affected by intense rainfall, which may not intersect human settlement or infrastructure. Existing datasets of landslides around the world generally include only those reported to have caused impacts, leading to significant biases toward areas with higher reporting capacity, limiting how our understanding of exposure to landslides in developing countries. In this study, we use an alternative approach to estimate exposure to landslides in a homogenous fashion. We have combined a global landslide hazard proxy derived from satellite data with open-source datasets on population, roads and infrastructure to consistently estimate exposure to rapid landslide hazards around the globe. These exposure models compare favorably with existing datasets of rainfall-triggered landslide fatalities, while filling in major gaps in inventory-based estimates in parts of the world with lower reporting capacity. Our findings provide a global estimate of exposure to landslides from 2001-2019 that we suggest may be useful to disaster mitigation professionals.

earthquakes↗

Dechlorination of molten chloride waste salt from electrorefining via ion-exchange using pelletized ultra-stable H-Y zeolite in a fluidized particle reactor

Dechlorination of eutectic LiCl–KCl based electrorefner (ER) salt is reported via ion-exchange reaction with protonated ultrastable Y-type (USHY) zeolite bound into mechanically fuidized 45–250 μm diameter particles. Evidence of exchange of cations from the salt (Li + , K + , and fission product cations) into the zeolite lattice replacing H + ions was found based on a change in unit cell size, ICP-MS, XRD and TEM–EDS in addition to detection of HCl of gas. Ion exchange reaction was carried out at 625 and 650 °C, temperatures above the melting point of eutectic LiCl–KCl. Experiments were carried out to optimize zeolite drying temperature, estimate maximum ion-exchange capacity, and determine the thermal stability of USHY zeolite. The results indicate over 90% dechlorination can be achieved without zeolite structure collapse at 625 °C. Finally, this provides a promising route to stabilizing waste from radioactive chloride salts into dechlorinated waste forms for permanent geologic disposal.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Experimental study of three-dimensional CO 2 -water drainage and fracture-matrix interactions in fractured porous media

Estimation of CO 2 storage capacity in fractured porous reservoirs requires a better understanding of the CO 2 -water flow fundamentals in fracture-matrix systems. There are few core-flood experiments on three-dimensional CO 2 -water drainage in a fracture-matrix system, yet none have examined the impacts of the capillary continuity of fractures and fracture-matrix interactions. In this study, twelve drainage experiments were conducted in four fracture-matrix columns, each comprising a vertical stack of a cylindrical rock core, a filter paper serving as an analogue to a horizontal fracture, and a ceramic plate. Here, the core sample was surrounded by open space at the top and circumferential sides to model fractures, allowing for 3-D CO 2 -water drainage in the rock core and displaced water draining across the horizontal fracture. X-ray computed tomography was conducted to visualize the dynamic invasion/drainage processes in four rock core samples showing contrasts in anisotropy, permeability, and heterogeneity. Experimental results show (1) the equilibrium CO 2 saturations in the rock matrix vary from 0.10 to 0.60 at controlled capillary pressures up to 200 kPa, (2) the CO 2 saturations in the matrix increase with water saturation in the horizontal fracture resulting in better capillary continuity for water to drain across the fracture, and (3) the fracture water saturation can be enhanced by the non-uniform fracture capillary pressure and countercurrent flow of CO 2 and water across the fracture-matrix interface. In the case of high fracture water saturation, matrix CO 2 saturation largely depends on matrix anisotropy and heterogeneity. The core-scale experimental results contribute to understand the fracture-matrix interactions and CO 2 storage efficiency in fractured porous media.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Temperature-dependence of structural and mechanical properties of TiB{sub 2}: A first principle investigation

High temperature mechanical and thermodynamic properties of TiB{sub 2} are important to its applications as ultrahigh temperature ceramic, which were not well understood. In this study, the thermodynamic and mechanical properties of TiB{sub 2} were investigated by the combination of first principle and phonon dispersion calculations. The thermal expansion of TiB{sub 2} was anisotropic, α{sub c}/α{sub a} is nearly constant (1.46) from 300 K to 1500 K, theoretically. The origination of this anisotropy is the anisotropic compressibility. The heat capacity at constant pressure was estimated from the theoretical entropy and fitted the experimental result quite well when higher-order anharmonic effects were considered. Theoretical isentropic elastic constants and mechanical properties were calculated and their temperature dependence agreed with the existed experiments. From room temperature to 1500 K, the theoretical slope is −0.0211 GPa·K{sup −1}, −0.0155 GPa·K{sup −1}, and −0.0384 GPa·K{sup −1} for B, G, and E, respectively. Our theoretical results highlight the suitability of this method in predicting temperature dependent properties of ultrahigh temperature ceramics and show ability in selecting and designing of novel ultrahigh temperature ceramics.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

System-Level Comparison of Sodium and Salt Systems in Support of the Gen3 Liquids Pathway

This paper presents the comparison of the annual performance and the Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE) of two high- temperature solar power tower configurations using a 565MWth chloride salt receiver and a 540 MWth liquid sodium receiver. Each power tower consists of a sodium or salt receiver, a 175 m high concrete tower, and a two-tank chloride salt system for thermal energy storage (TES). The power plants were simulated using SolarTherm to estimate their energy per year, capacity factor, and LCOE. The simulation was verified against the System Advisor Model (SAM), showing that the LCOE calculation differences are within ±1.0%. Results showed that the sodium-receiver system yields 69.60 USD/MWh real LCOE, versus 78.55 USD/MWh for the chloride salt system. Results also showed that sodium wins here due to a smaller and more efficient receiver, enabled by higher flux limits and reduced field size, leading to less mirror reflective area and site improvement cost.

capacity factor↗

Supercritical CO 2 uptake by nonswelling phyllosilicates

Significance Reliable estimates of geologic carbon storage capacities (needed for policymaking) in both saline aquifers and unconventional gas/oil shales rely on understanding trapping mechanisms. We found that CO 2 uptake by muscovite (a common mineral and a conservative proxy for illite) far exceeds the maximum adsorption capacity of its external surface area. Our measurements using different methods collectively suggest that CO 2 enters muscovite interlayers without bulk interlayer expansion, contrary to the conventional wisdom that only swelling clays take up CO 2 into interlayers. Because the nonswelling illitic clay is the major clay mineral in deep subsurface tight rocks, their excess uptake of CO 2 may significantly contribute to CO 2 storage capacity and warrants further in-depth studies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Advanced Cell-Level Control for Extending Electric Vehicle Battery Pack Lifetime

A cell-level control approach for electric vehicle battery packs is presented that enhances traditional battery balancing goals to not only provide cell balancing but also achieve significant pack lifetime extension. These goals are achieved by applying a new life-prognostic based control algorithm that biases individual cells differently based on their state of charge, capacity and internal resistance. The proposed life control approach reduces growth in capacity mismatch typically seen in large battery packs over life while optimizing usable energy of the pack. The result is a longer lifetime of the overall pack and a more homogeneous distribution of cell capacities at the end of the first life for vehicle applications. Active cell balancing circuits and associated algorithms are used to accomplish the cell-level life extension objectives. This paper presents details of the cell-level control approach, selection and design of the active balancing system, and low-complexity state-of-charge, capacity, and series-resistance estimation algorithms. A laboratory prototype is used to demonstrate the proposed control approach. The prototype consists of twenty-one 25 Ah Panasonic lithium-Ion NMC battery cells from a commercial electric vehicle and an integrated BMS/DC-DC system that provides 750 W to the vehicle low voltage auxiliary loads.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Integrated Geologic Storage Prefeasibility Study Proximal to Dry Fork Power Station, Powder River Basin, Wyoming

The pre-feasibility study—funded by the Department of Energy CarbonSAFE program (DE-FE0029375)—is centred around Basin Electric’s Dry Fork Station (DFS) in Wyoming’s Powder River Basin. Dry Fork Station, completed in 2011, is a high efficient coal-fired power plant that emits 3.3 million tons of CO2 per annum. The DFS site also host’s the Wyoming Integrated Test Center (ITC) funded by a $15 million investment by the State of Wyoming. The ITC is a public-private partnership test bed for CCS technologies. Geologic storage sites are in immediate vicinity of the DFS providing significant opportunities for co-located source and saline storage. The Powder River Basin (PRB) of Wyoming and Montana, was identified by NETL (2010) as having a “high potential” for commercial-scale carbon sequestration. The basin contains as much as 17,000 feet of sedimentary rock and covers an area of approximately 24,000 square miles. The PRB has a long history of hydrocarbon production and remaining undiscovered reserves. Accumulations and production of hydrocarbons in the basin indicate the presence of reservoir formations with significant pore volumes and impermeable sealing formations. This attribute alone suggests the reservoir and seal characteristics of the formations provide significant opportunities for CO₂ storage in saline reservoirs. Four high quality potential reservoir and sealing complexes have been identified for geologic storage. These formations range in depth from 6,500-9,500 feet underneath DFS including: (1) the Pennsylvanian Minnelusa Formation reservoir and Permian Goose Egg Formation (Opeche Shale) seal; (2) the Jurassic Hulett and Canyon Springs Sandstones of the Sundance Formation sealed by the Late Jurassic Upper Sundance Member and Morrison Formation and (3) the Early Cretaceous Lakota and Dakota, and Muddy Formation reservoirs sealed by the Mowry Shale. The preliminary reservoir characterization results integrate data from petrophysical well logs, core measurements, faults/fractures analysis, artificial penetrations, and published literature to evaluate geologic storage capacity and potential risk, for the Powder River Basin. These reservoir and seal combinations reside within ideal depth constraints and show suitable reservoir and seal characteristics conducive to commercial-scale storage. Specifically, this paper presents 1) high level description of the geologic storage complex 2) a first order risk analysis associated with pre-existing oil and gas wells, and 3) preliminary storage capacity and Area of Review estimates.

Quillinan, Scott↗

Characterization of the Triassic Newark Basin of New York and New Jersey for geologic storage of carbon dioxide

The Newark Basin is a Triassic-aged rift basin underlying densely populated, industrialized sections of New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. The Basin is an elongate half-graben encompassing an area of more than 7,510 square-kilometers (2,900 square-miles), and could represent a key storage component for commercial scale management of carbon dioxide emissions via geologic sequestration. The project team first acquired published reports, surface and subsurface maps, and seismic data, which formed the basis for a three-dimensional model framework for the northern end of the Basin incorporating stratigraphic, hydrologic, and water quality data. Field investigations included drilling, coring, and logging of two stratigraphic test borings in Clarkstown, NY (Exit 14 Tandem Lot Well No. 1), drilled to a depth of 2,099 meters (6,885 feet); and Palisades, NY (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Test Well No. 4) drilled to a depth of 549 meters (1,802 feet). Two two-dimensional seismic reflection data lines arrayed perpendicularly were acquired by Schlumberger/WesternGeco to help characterize the structure and stratigraphy and as part of pre-drilling field screening activities for the deep stratigraphic borehole. A total of 47 meters (155 feet) of continuous whole core was recovered from the Tandem Lot boring from depths of 1,393 meters (4,570 feet) to 1,486 meters (4,877 feet). Twenty-five horizontal rotary cores were collected in mudstones and sandstones in the surface casing hole and fifty-two cores were taken in various lithologies in the deep borehole. Rotary core plugs were analyzed by Weatherford Laboratories for routine and advanced testing. Rotary core plug trim end thin sections were evaluated by the New York State Museum for mineralogical analysis and porosity estimation. Using core samples, Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory designed and completed laboratory experiments and numerical modeling analyses to characterize the dissolution and reaction of carbon dioxide with formation brine and minerals, and resulting effects on injection rate, pressure, effective storage volume, and carbon dioxide migration within a prospective sandstone reservoir. $$Three potential porous and permeable sandstone units were identified in the Passaic Formation at the New York State Thruway Exit 14 location. Potential Flow Unit 1, at a depth of 643 meters (2,110 feet) to 751 meters (2,465 feet); Potential Flow Unit 2 at a depth of 853 meters (2,798 feet) to 1,000 meters (3,280 feet); and Potential Flow Unit 3, at a depth of 1,114 meters (3,655 feet) to 1,294 meters (4,250 feet). Reactive transport simulations of interactions between carbon dioxide, brine and formation minerals were carried out to evaluate changes in formation water chemistry, mineral precipitation and dissolution reactions, and any potential resulting effects on formation permeability. The experimental and modeling analyses suggest that mineral precipitation and dissolution reactions (within the target formation) are not expected to lead to significant changes to the underground hydrologic system over time frames (~30 years) typically relevant for carbon dioxide injection operations. Key findings of this basin characterization study include an estimate of carbon dioxide storage capacity in the Newark Basin. Assuming an average porosity of twelve percent and an aquifer volume of 6.1E+12 meters3, calculated ranges of likely storage capacity range from 1.9 – 20.2 gigatonnes under high temperature (low carbon dioxide density) conditions; and 2.9 – 30.2 gigatonnes under low temperature (low carbon dioxide density) conditions. Intra-basin faulting, geometry of the Palisades Sill, and the presence of altered meta-sediments above and below the Sill, increase potential compartmentalization within the basin. A structural/stratigraphic trap type may occur where porous/permeable sediments are cross-cut by the Palisades Sill. Potential injection intervals are present within the Stockton Formation of the Newark Basin. Additional porous/permeable intervals may be present within sandstones of the Passaic Formation, increasing projected storage capacity. Deeper wedges of strata are likely present in the deeper portions of the basin in southern New York and into northern New Jersey. Abundant mudstones are present in the Passaic, Lockatong, and Stockton Formations. These intervals have the requisite petrophysical properties to form effective primary and secondary containment intervals to industrial-scale sequestration of carbon dioxide in the Newark Basin. Hydro-thermally altered meta-sediments in the region immediately surrounding the top and base of the Palisades Sill is devoid of porosity/permeability and forms an additional effective lateral/vertical sealing cap rock.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Developing a Decision Support System for Regional Agricultural Nonpoint Salinity Pollution Management: Application to the San Joaquin River, California

Environmental problems and production losses associated with irrigated agriculture, such as salinity, degradation of receiving waters, such as rivers, and deep percolation of saline water to aquifers, highlight water-quality concerns that require a paradigm shift in resource-management policy. New tools are needed to assist environmental managers in developing sustainable solutions to these problems, given the nonpoint source nature of salt loads to surface water and groundwater from irrigated agriculture. Equity issues arise in distributing responsibility and costs to the generators of this source of pollution. This paper describes an alternative approach to salt regulation and control using the concept of “Real-Time Water Quality management”. The approach relies on a continually updateable WARMF (Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework) forecasting model to provide daily estimates of salt load assimilative capacity in the San Joaquin River and assessments of compliance with salinity concentration objectives at key monitoring sites on the river. The results of the study showed that the policy combination of well-crafted river salinity objectives by the regulator and the application of an easy-to use and maintain decision support tool by stakeholders have succeeded in minimizing water quality (salinity) exceedances over a 20-year study period.

real-time management economics↗

Simulation of wind and solar energy generation over California with E3SM SCREAM regionally refined models at 3.25 km and 800 m resolutions

This study presents wind and solar power generation estimates derived from the US Department of Energy’s Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) Regionally Refined Models (RRM) over California at 3.25 km and 800 m horizontal resolutions, using the Python wrapper for the System Advisor Model (PySAM). The resulting wind and solar generation estimates are compared to monthly capacity factors reported to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR, 3 km resolution) forecast model, and E3SM North American regionally refined model (NARRM, 25 km resolution). We systematically assess the impacts of generation modeling assumptions, meteorological models, and horizontal resolution. Results show that resolution plays a dominant role for wind energy: increasing from 25 to 3.25 km brings qualitative and quantitative improvements, most notably by resolving the phase error in the seasonal cycle found in coarser simulations. However, further refinement to 800 m offers minimal gains. SCREAM performs better than HRRR for solar power generation in single- and dual-axis tracking systems, likely due to more accurate surface radiation. The sensitivity of PySAM to system configuration, particularly for axis-tracking modeling in photovoltaics, is also highlighted. Overall, SCREAM-RRM shows strong potential for high-resolution energy assessments, with future progress depending on more in situ observations and clearer quantification of uncertainties in generation modeling.

Geosciences↗