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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18

Inferring adversarial behaviour in cyber‐physical power systems using a Bayesian attack graph approach

Abstract Highly connected smart power systems are subject to increasing vulnerabilities and adversarial threats. Defenders need to proactively identify and defend new high‐risk access paths of cyber intruders that target grid resilience. However, cyber‐physical risk analysis and defense in power systems often requires making assumptions on adversary behaviour, and these assumptions can be wrong. Thus, this work examines the problem of inferring adversary behaviour in power systems to improve risk‐based defense and detection. To achieve this, a Bayesian approach for inference of the Cyber‐Adversarial Power System (Bayes‐CAPS) is proposed that uses Bayesian networks (BNs) to define and solve the inference problem of adversarial movement in the grid infrastructure towards targets of physical impact. Specifically, BNs are used to compute conditional probabilities to queries, such as the probability of observing an event given a set of alerts. Bayes‐CAPS builds initial Bayesian attack graphs for realistic power system cyber‐physical models. These models are adaptable using collected data from the system under study. Then, Bayes‐CAPS computes the posterior probabilities of the occurrence of a security breach event in power systems. Experiments are conducted that evaluate algorithms based on time complexity, accuracy and impact of evidence for different scales and densities of network. The performance is evaluated and compared for five realistic cyber‐physical power system models of increasing size and complexities ranging from 8 to 300 substations based on computation and accuracy impacts.

Sahu, Abhijeet↗

Supporting U.S. National Security Through Cybersecurity Partnerships

At NLR, we're studying energy evolutions and threats to understand the challenges they pose and uncover ways to leverage grid advancements to achieve more secure, defensible, and reliable systems. Our integrated research approach bridges the gap between cyber threats and real-world consequences to deliver actionable solutions that reduce vulnerabilities and help strengthen U.S. national security.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Cloud Computing for Mission Design and Operations

The space mission design and operations community already recognizes the value of cloud computing and virtualization. However, natural and valid concerns, like security, privacy, up-time, and vendor lock-in, have prevented a more widespread and expedited adoption into official workflows. In the interest of alleviating these concerns, we propose a series of guidelines for internally deploying a resource-oriented hub of data and algorithms. These guidelines provide a roadmap for implementing an architecture inspired in the cloud computing model: associative, elastic, semantical, interconnected, and adaptive. The architecture can be summarized as exposing data and algorithms as resource-oriented Web services, coordinated via messaging, and running on virtual machines; it is simple, and based on widely adopted standards, protocols, and tools. The architecture may help reduce common sources of complexity intrinsic to data-driven, collaborative interactions and, most importantly, it may provide the means for teams and agencies to evaluate the cloud computing model in their specific context, with minimal infrastructure changes, and before committing to a specific cloud services provider.

cloud computing↗

Field Programmable Gate Array-Based Reactor Protection Systems and Potential for Inclusion of Secure Elements to Improve Cybersecurity

For acceptable implementations of technologies like wireless communications, remote monitoring, etc., strong mitigations must be developed and evaluated to ensure that new attack pathways do not increase risk for Advanced Reactors. Secure Elements can be adopted and adapted for this purpose based on tamper resistance and cryptographic abilities, but research must be done to properly integrate into critical components such as FPGA-based Important to Safety systems in conjunction with current and future regulations on cyber security features in Advanced Reactors. Typically, the integration of a Secure Element happens during the POST and UEFI boot of a computing platform, performed by the Operating System, which is not possible with FPGAs because they do not include these firmware components. Work must be done to identify a reliable and secure method for integration in FPGA-based systems which lack Operating Systems and therefore complex boot procedures, system calls, etc.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

HPC and Cloud Convergence Beyond Technical Boundaries: Strategies for Economic Sustainability, Standardization, and Data Accessibility

At the IEEE/ACM International Conference for High-Performance Computing, Networking, Storage, and Analysis (SC23), held in Denver, experts discussed the convergence of high-performance computing and cloud computing. Experts explored how this integration could address current scientific computing limitations, enhance computational capabilities, and foster global collaboration while focusing on economic, security, technical, and community challenges and opportunities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Automated Adversary-in-the-Loop Cyber-Physical Defense Planning

Security of cyber-physical systems (CPS) continues to pose new challenges due to the tight integration and operational complexity of the cyber and physical components. To address these challenges, this article presents a domain-aware, optimization-based approach to determine an effective defense strategy for CPS in an automated fashion—by emulating a strategic adversary in the loop that exploits system vulnerabilities, interconnection of the CPS, and the dynamics of the physical components. Our approach builds on an adversarial decision-making model based on a Markov Decision Process (MDP) that determines the optimal cyber (discrete) and physical (continuous) attack actions over a CPS attack graph. The defense planning problem is modeled as a non-zero-sum game between the adversary and defender. We use a model-free reinforcement learning method to solve the adversary’s problem as a function of the defense strategy. We then employ Bayesian optimization (BO) to find an approximate best-response for the defender to harden the network against the resulting adversary policy. This process is iterated multiple times to improve the strategy for both players. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on a ransomware-inspired graph with a smart building system as the physical process. Numerical studies show that our method converges to a Nash equilibrium for various defender-specific costs of network hardening.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Testing SOAR tools in use

Investigations within Security Operation Centers (SOCs) are tedious as they rely on manual efforts to query diverse data sources, overlay related logs, correlate the data into information, and then document results in a ticketing system. Security Orchestration, Automation, and Response (SOAR) tools are a relatively new technology that promise, with appropriate configuration, to collect, filter, and display needed diverse information; automate many of the common tasks that unnecessarily require SOC analysts’ time; facilitate SOC collaboration; and, in doing so, improve both efficiency and consistency of SOCs. There has been no prior research to test SOAR tools in practice; hence, understanding and evaluation of their effect is nascent and needed. Here, in this paper, we design and administer the first hands-on user study of SOAR tools, involving 24 participants and six commercial SOAR tools. Our contributions include the experimental design, itemizing six characteristics of SOAR tools, and a methodology for testing them. We describe configuration of a cyber range test environment, including network, user, and threat emulation; a full SOC tool suite; and creation of artifacts allowing multiple representative investigation scenarios to permit testing. We present the first research results on SOAR tools. Concisely, our findings are that: per-SOC SOAR configuration is extremely important; SOAR tools increase efficiency and reduce context switching, although with potentially decreased ticketing accuracy/completeness; user preference is slightly negatively correlated with their performance with the tool; internet dependence varies widely among SOAR tools; and balance of automation with assisting decision making is preferred by senior participants. We deliver a public user- and tool-anonymized and -obfuscated version of the data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Plant-specific Model and Data Analysis using Dynamic Security Modeling and Simulation

The requirements for U.S. nuclear power plants to maintain a large on-site physical security force contribute to their high operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program’s physical security pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. The conservatisms built into current security postures may be analyzed and minimized in order to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within LWRS program’s physical security pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrating them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This document provides an update on the progress in applying a dynamic computational framework that links results from a commercially available force-on-force simulation tool, a commercially available thermal-hydraulic tool, and EMRALD to an operating commercial nuclear power plant. This report is only a summary of the progress and does not contain specific modeling results as those contain sensitive security information. This process of including plant procedures and multiple analysis results is being called Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework or MASS-DEF. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific force-on-force models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as CAFTA (Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System) or SAPHIRE (Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations), and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report documents the results of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. This report does not contain any plant's sensitive information and/or Safeguards Information. The purpose of this study was to verify that results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and to refine our guidance on the use of the framework. This assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Obstacles to Practical Digital Supply Chain Risk Management in the Energy Sector

Cyber supply chain risk management (C-SCRM) programs must consider operations that depend on the lifecycles of digital components such as hardware, firmware, software, and services. We integrate academic literature, historical incidents, and existing standards to identify obstacles faced by C-SCRM programs.

Business Process Management & Integration↗

Enabling Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Physical Security Using EMRALD and MAAP

The optimization of physical security in nuclear power plants requires sophisticated methodologies that integrate operator actions and plant behavior through advanced simulation tools. To address this, Idaho National Laboratory [JL2.1]has developed the Modeling and Analysis for Safety and Security using the Dynamic EMRALD Framework (MASS-DEF) methodology, an approach that integrates force-on-force simulations, dynamic probabilistic risk assessment, and thermal-hydraulics modeling [JL3.1]to enhance security planning while reducing costs. We developed a tool that produces reduced order models using thermal hydraulic simulations from the Modular Accident Analysis Program (MAAP) [1]. These models can quickly evaluate reactor core behavior during attack simulations, and in so doing, address two barriers of traditional methods: (1) MAAP simulations are computationally intensive, and (2) attack scenarios must be run in a secure environment, which complicates analysis and validation. By precomputing scenario outcomes for a small number of modified parameters, the reduced order model significantly decreases the computational cost and enables offsite review of the results.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Using Computer Simulations to Optimize Biofuel Production

The DOE strives to ensure America's security and prosperity by addressing energy challenges. NREL shares this goal and tries to achieve a clean energy world. Fossil fuels are problematic for both organizations. Using them endangers American security. Their supply is finite and burning them causes environmental damage. Biofuels are a good alternative to fossil fuels. They are renewably produced on American soil and can lower greenhouse gas emissions. Also, cars and planes need no costly mechanical adjustments to use biofuels. However, the fuels themselves are expensive. For my SULI project, I reduced the cost of biofuels by optimizing the production process through computer simulations. Existing simulations were accurate but slow. One simulation takes up to eight hours, and researchers must do hundreds. My solution reduces the computing time. I treated the biomass particles in the simulation as one-dimensional. That simplified the simulation equations, making them easier for the computer to solve. Still, biomass particles are three-dimensional. The 1D assumption was wrong and produced inaccurate results. To maintain accuracy while increasing speed, I developed a method to convert 1D simulation results into usable 3D data. I adjusted the 1D simulation until the output matched the 3D results for a specific environment. I found out how much the simulation changed when the environment changed. Machine learning algorithms defined a relationship between 1D and 3D data for all environments. This lets scientists convert fast 1D simulation results into valid 3D data.

1D↗

Privacy-Preserving Federated Learning for Science: Challenges and Research Directions

This paper discusses the key challenges and future research directions for privacy-preserving federated learning (PPFL), with a focus on its application to large-scale scientific AI models, in particular, foundation models~(FMs). PPFL enables collaborative model training across distributed datasets while preserving privacy-- an important collaborative approach for science. We discuss the need for efficient and scalable algorithms to address the increasing complexity of FMs, particularly when dealing with heterogeneous clients. In addition, we underscore the need for developing advance privacy-preserving techniques, such as differential privacy, to balance privacy and utility in large FMs emphasizing fairness and incentive mechanisms to ensure equitable participation among heterogeneous clients. Finally, we emphasize the need for a robust software stack supporting scalable and secure PPFL deployments across multiple high-performance computing facilities. We envision that PPFL would play a crucial role to advance scientific discovery and enable large-scale, privacy-aware collaborations across science domains.

Kim, Kibaek [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)]↗

A Trilevel Model for Segmentation of the Power Transmission Grid Cyber Network

Network segmentation of a power grid's communication system can make the grid more resilient to cyberattacks. Here we develop a novel trilevel programming model to optimally segment a grid communication system, taking into account the actions of an information technology (IT) administrator, attacker, and grid operator. The IT administrator is allowed to segment existing networks, and the attacker is given a budget to inflict damage on the grid by attacking the segmented communication system. Finally, the grid operator can redispatch the grid after the attack to minimize damage. The resulting problem is a trilevel interdiction problem that we solve using a branch and bound algorithm for bilevel problems. We demonstrate the benefits of optimal network segmentation through case studies on the 9-bus Western System Coordinating Council (WSCC) system and the 30-bus IEEE system. These examples illustrate that network segmentation can significantly reduce the threat posed by a cyberattacker.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Advanced Computing is at the Forefront of a New “Moonshot” Revolutionizing the North American Power Grid

In the 50+ years since the first humans landed on the moon, computing has grown at breakneck speed. We are faced with another challenge that is just as daunting, and just as important to overcome-modernizing the North American electric power grid-and high-performance computing (HPC) systems with specialized software will be an important element in rising to this challenge. We describe at a high level how software developed in the ExaSGD project addresses this "moonshot" goal by utilizing exascale computing and a novel high performance solver software stack to support the mission of decarbonizing power grid operations in an environment of uncertain weather and climate. To reach the exascale benchmark the team has made a number of first-of-their-kind innovations, including novel method for stochastic optimization, fine grained parallel methods for modeling power systems, and GPU resident sparse numerical linear solvers.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Machine Learning Based Resilience Testing of an Address Randomization Cyber Defense

Moving target defenses (MTDs) are widely used as an active defense strategy for thwarting cyberattacks on cyber-physical systems by increasing diversity of software and network paths. Recently, machine Learning (ML) and deep Learning (DL) models have been demonstrated to defeat some of the cyber defenses by learning attack detection patterns and defense strategies. It raises concerns about the susceptibility of MTD to ML and DL methods. Here, in this article, we analyze the effectiveness of ML and DL models when it comes to deciphering MTD methods and ultimately evade MTD-based protections in real-time systems. Specifically, we consider a MTD algorithm that periodically randomizes address assignments within the MIL-STD-1553 protocol—a military standard serial data bus. Two ML and DL-based tasks are performed on MIL-STD-1553 protocol to measure the effectiveness of the learning models in deciphering the MTD algorithm: 1) determining whether there is an address assignments change i.e., whether the given system employs a MTD protocol and if it does 2) predicting the future address assignments. The supervised learning models (random forest and k-nearest neighbors) effectively detected the address assignment changes and classified whether the given system is equipped with a specified MTD protocol. On the other hand, the unsupervised learning model (K-means) was significantly less effective. The DL model (long short-term memory) was able to predict the future addresses with varied effectiveness based on MTD algorithm's settings.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Netload Range Cost Curves for Coordinated Transmission-Distribution Planning Under DER Growth Uncertainty

The increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) requires better coordination between transmission and distribution (T&D) planning to ensure system security and cost efficiency. However, misaligned planning horizons, computational burdens, and privacy concerns hinder effective coordination, leading to either underutilized resources caused by overinvestments or reliability risks due to underinvestment. To address this challenge, we introduce netload range cost curves (NRCCs), a novel approach for managing long-term DER growth uncertainty through T&D coordination, while preserving existing data-sharing and regulatory structures. NRCCs provide pairs of (i) peak substation netload guarantees and (ii) corresponding distribution upgrade options and costs, enabling their seamless integration into transmission planning workflows. To compute NRCCs efficiently, we develop a transmission-aware distribution network planning (TADNP), which is subsequently integrated to an iterative computation procedure. These NRCCs are then embedded into an NRCC-informed transmission planning model to enable resource-efficient coordination. We illustrate our proposed approach with a case study based on realistic distribution and transmission systems in the San Francisco Bay Area, California. Our results indicate the possibility of dramatic savings in transmission investments by incorporating the proposed NRCC-integrated T&D coordination framework.

Li, Yujia↗

Resilient State Recovery Using Prior Measurement Support Information

Resilient state recovery of cyber-physical systems has attracted much research attention due to the unique challenges posed by the tight coupling between communication, computation, and the underlying physics of such systems. By modeling attacks as additive adversary signals to a sparse subset of measurements, this resilient recovery problem can be formulated as an error correction problem. To achieve exact state recovery, most existing results require less than 50% of the measurement nodes to be compromised, which limits the resiliency of the estimators. In this paper, we show that observer resiliency can be further improved by incorporating data-driven prior information. Here, we provide an analytical bridge between the precision of prior information and the resiliency of the estimator. By quantifying the relationship between the estimation error of the weighted ℓ 1 observer and the precision of the support prior, this quantified relationship provides guidance for the estimator’s weight design to achieve optimal resiliency. Several numerical simulations and an application case study are presented to validate the theoretical claims.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Secure API-Driven Research Automation to Accelerate Scientific Discovery

The Secure Scientific Service Mesh (S3M) provides API-driven infrastructure to accelerate scientific discovery through automated research workflows. By integrating near real-time streaming capabilities, intelligent workflow orchestration, and fine-grained authorization within a service mesh architecture, S3M enables secure and flexible programmatic access to high performance computing (HPC) resources. This framework allows intelligent agents and experimental facilities to dynamically provision resources and execute complex workflows, accelerating experimental lifecycles, and enabling AI-augmented autonomous science. S3M establishes a modern foundation for scientific computing infrastructure that significantly reduces traditional barriers between researchers, computational resources, and experimental facilities.

Skluzacek, Tyler [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000322424931)↗