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At least 325 records · Page 18

Estimating Drizzle Parameters by Aircraft Sampling

In-cloud supersaturation is calculated from aircraft derived measurements of the in-cloud vertical gradient of liquid water content, vertical velocity, the pt and 3 rd cloud droplet radius moments and a parameter related to the heat and mass transport during condensation and evaporation of cloud droplets. The aircraft data where taken during the VOCALS 2008 study in marine stratocumulus clouds off the coast of Chile. Approximately 16000 discrete samples, 2.5 meter in length, were used in the present analysis of in-cloud supersaturation and its variability, both of which are indicative of turbulent processes within the cloud and their significant impact on drizzle formation. Two additional drizzle parameters, the eddy persistence time and the variance of fluctuations in in-cloud droplet growth rate were also estimated from this data set. These results will help to constrain parameterizations of underlying turbulent microphysical processes of clouds and thereby advance the future development of warm cloud and precipitation models for climate simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Sensor Dilemma in Intelligent Transportation Systems: Evaluating Radar, Lidar and Camera: Preprint

Intelligent transportation systems (ITS) are at the forefront in advancing the way we interact with and perceive the transportation network. This revolution is fueled by the significant advancement in sensor perception technologies such as radar, lidar, and video imaging, which are the most popular modalities for ITS. Real-time perception data from these sensors allow intelligent infrastructure-side decision-making to improve the energy, efficiency, and safety at traffic intersections. As traffic departments across the United States transition from traditional loop detectors and emulators and embrace newer technologies, they are often left with a dilemma in choosing a sensor technology for infrastructure-based perception that is reliable, inexpensive, and easy to set up and that has robust performance in varying weather conditions. However, choosing a sensor that checks all these boxes is not straightforward, as every sensor type has unique benefits and drawbacks. Radar is excellent at detecting long-range vehicles and weather resistance but lacks high resolution. Lidar is expensive and weather-sensitive, while cameras provide rich visual data at a low cost but are constrained by lighting and visibility. This study examines radar, lidar, and camera sensor capabilities to ascertain whether any of these qualifies as the "best" sensor for ITS perception. While no single sensor can meet all the demands of ITS, a hybrid approach combining multiple sensor modalities like radar, lidar, and cameras offers the most robust solution for enhancing the safety and efficiency of ITS. Through this evaluation, we hope to draw attention to the necessity of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's infrastructure perception and control framework, which presents a multisensor track data fusion engine to assimilate multiple data streams in order to provide robust and reliable perception.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

CAKE: Consistent Automatic Kinetic Equilibrium reconstruction

Magnetohydrodynamic equilibrium reconstructions with kinetic constraints are an essential input of many tokamak stability and transport analysis work- flows. The reconstructions themselves also contain useful information about pressure and current density distributions within the plasma which can be used to drive other calculations. While standardized magnetic-only, and partially kinetic equilibrium reconstruction is widely available and used, re- constructions for well diagnosed machines such as DIII-D, that incorporates a large and heterogeneous set of internal diagnostic measurements yet robustly reaching high numerical accuracy have been a time intensive, manual process. The Consistent Automatic Kinetic Equilibrium reconstruction tool (CAKE) has been developed and implemented at DIII-D for producing low error, kinetically constrained reconstructions without human intervention, and to identify strategies for doing so that would be broadly applicable. Here, the techniques employed to allow CAKE to handle data of limited quality and availability, as well as the full automation of the workflow may assist future efforts to form kinetic constraint profiles in real time plasma control applications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Physical, resource supply, and biological controls on nutrient processing along the river continuum

Nutrient impairment has led to damages to US surface and groundwater systems in excess of 100 billion dollars per year. Therefore, there is a strong need to develop methods to predict the transport, uptake, and export of nutrients along fluvial networks. We present results that are based on a data-driven mechanistic understanding of three factors that largely control nutrient uptake and export: 1) interactions between transport-related processes (mass transfer to metabolically active zones), 2) resource supply dynamics (nutrient concentration, stoichiometric constraints, etc.), and 3) biological controls (microbial community structure and function). Our results were generated from column experiments conducted along the Jemez River-Rio Grande continuum, which spans four orders of magnitude in mean annual discharge, more than 2000 m in altitude, and more than 500 km of stream longitude. Two resource supply injections were performed on each of the columns, i.e., a nitrate only addition, followed by a stoichiometrically ‘balanced’ 106Carbon:16Nitrogen:1Phosphorus addition. We quantified NO3-N uptake kinetics while constraining three variables: stream order, sediment type and type of injection (N vs stoichiometrically ‘balanced’ C:N:P). Following the laboratory nutrient uptake experiments, the columns were destructively sampled and the contents were homogenized to collect subsamples for DNA sequencing. Amplicon analysis was carried out as described by the Earth Microbiome Protocol for 16s and ITS sequencing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating alternative ebullition models for predicting peatland methane emission and its pathways via data–model fusion

Abstract. Understanding the dynamics of peatland methane (CH4) emissions and quantifying sources of uncertainty in estimating peatland CH4 emissions are critical for mitigating climate change. The relative contributions of CH4 emission pathways through ebullition, plant-mediated transport, and diffusion, together with their different transport rates and vulnerability to oxidation, determine the quantity of CH4 to be oxidized before leaving the soil. Notwithstanding their importance, the relative contributions of the emission pathways are highly uncertain. In particular, the ebullition process is more uncertain and can lead to large uncertainties in modeled CH4 emissions. To improve model simulations of CH4 emission and its pathways, we evaluated two model structures: (1) the ebullition bubble growth volume threshold approach (EBG) and (2) the modified ebullition concentration threshold approach (ECT) using CH4 flux and concentration data collected in a peatland in northern Minnesota, USA. When model parameters were constrained using observed CH4 fluxes, the CH4 emissions simulated by the EBG approach (RMSE = 0.53) had a better agreement with observations than the ECT approach (RMSE = 0.61). Further, the EBG approach simulated a smaller contribution from ebullition but more frequent ebullition events than the ECT approach. The EBG approach yielded greatly improved simulations of pore water CH4 concentrations, especially in the deep soil layers, compared to the ECT approach. When constraining the EBG model with both CH4 flux and concentration data in model–data fusion, uncertainty of the modeled CH4 concentration profiles was reduced by 78 % to 86 % in comparison to constraints based on CH4 flux data alone. The improved model capability was attributed to the well-constrained parameters regulating the CH4 production and emission pathways. Our results suggest that the EBG modeling approach better characterizes CH4 emission and underlying mechanisms. Moreover, to achieve the best model results both CH4 flux and concentration data are required to constrain model parameterization.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Scenario optimization for the tokamak ramp-down phase in RAPTOR: Part B. safe termination of DEMO plasmas

An optimized plasma current ramp-down strategy is critical for safe and fast termination of plasma discharges in a tokamak demonstration fusion reactor (DEMO), both in planned and emergency scenarios, avoiding plasma disruptions and excessive heat loads to the first wall. Plasma stability limits and machine-specific technical requirements constrain the stable envelope through which the plasma must be navigated. Large amounts of auxiliary heating are required throughout the ramp-down phase, to avoid a radiative collapse in the presence of intrinsic tungsten and seeded xenon impurities, as quantitatively estimated in this work. As the plasma current is reduced, the current density becomes increasingly peaked, reflected by a growing value of the internal inductance $\ell$ $i3$ , resulting in reduced controllability of the vertical position of the plasma. The feasibility of different plasma current ramp-down rates is tested by applying an automated optimization framework embedding the RAPTOR core transport solver. Optimal time traces for plasma current $I$ $p$ $(t)$ and plasma elongation $κ(t)$ are proposed, to satisfy an $I$ $p$ -dependent upper limit on the plasma internal inductance, as obtained from vertical stability studies using the CREATE-NL code, as well as a constraint on the time evolution of $q$ 95 , to avoid an ideal MHD mode. A negative current density near the plasma edge is observed in our simulations, even for the most conservative $I$ $p$ ramp-down rate, indicating significant transient dynamics due to a large resistive time.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Probabilistic Groundwater Modeling of the RDX Plume at Los Alamos National Laboratory to Support Risk Assessment - 20359

A plume of the contaminant hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) with concentrations greater than the New Mexico tap water drinking standard (9.66 ppb) is present in the regional aquifer near the southwestern boundary of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). A risk assessment is performed for exposure to regional aquifer groundwater, with long-term predictions of RDX concentrations provided by a calibrated, probabilistic, numerical fate and transport model. The structure of the model is hierarchical, with the RDX Regional Aquifer (RA) groundwater model acting as the primary tool for analysis of downgradient RDX concentrations. The RA model is deeply informed by the conceptual site model (CSM) and is calibrated using site RDX concentration data and hydraulic head measurements, along with other analyses. The model is calibrated using data through December 2019. Where data are scarce other lines of evidence are used to inform inputs, including the multiphase RDX Vadose Zone (VZ) model and Pipe and Disk analytical screening tool. Model inputs are described with informative prior distributions using a robust approach to development that incorporates all available lines of evidence for every parameter used as an input to the RA model. Calibration is performed using a classical nonlinear optimization routine, which is then used to initialize a Bayesian calibration. The Bayesian calibration constrains the uncertainty in the classical calibration, ultimately providing posterior distributions for all model parameters. The challenges of the calibration include high-dimensional parameter space, including spatially heterogeneous hydraulic conductivities, comparatively sparse data, and low RDX concentrations. Posterior parameter distributions developed in the calibration process are then used for stochastic predictive model runs into the future. The result of the forward runs is spatially and temporally explicit estimates of head and concentration with uncertainty at all points in space and time. The probabilistic modeling approach presented here includes innovative computational and statistical methods that leverage high-performance computing (HPC) resources. It makes use of prior modeling work performed at the chromium plume site in the central LANL area, with extensive updates. The risk assessment will ultimately be used to support decision-making at the site, using multiple appropriately weighted sources of information, as well as uncertainty, sensitivity, and value-of-information analyses. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Towards a Unified theory of Fractional and Nonlocal Vector Calculus

Nonlocal and fractional-order models capture effects that classical partial differential equations cannot describe; for this reason, they are suitable for a broad class of engineering and scientific applications that feature multiscale or anomalous behavior. This has driven a desire for a vector calculus that includes nonlocal and fractional gradient, divergence and Laplacian type operators, as well as tools such as Green’s identities, to model subsurface transport, turbulence, and conservation laws. In the literature, several independent definitions and theories of nonlocal and fractional vector calculus have been put forward. Some have been studied rigorously and in depth, while others have been introduced ad-hoc for specific applications. The goal of this work is to provide foundations for a unified vector calculus by (1) consolidating fractional vector calculus as a special case of nonlocal vector calculus, (2) relating unweighted and weighted Laplacian operators by introducing an equivalence kernel, and (3) proving a form of Green’s identity to unify the corresponding variational frameworks for the resulting nonlocal volume-constrained problems. Here, the proposed framework goes beyond the analysis of nonlocal equations by supporting new model discovery, establishing theory and interpretation for a broad class of operators, and providing useful analogues of standard tools from the classical vector calculus.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Unified Theory of Fractional Nonlocal and Weighted Nonlocal Vector Calculus

Nonlocal and fractional-order models capture effects that classical partial differential equations cannot describe; for this reason, they are suitable for a broad class of engineering and scientific applications that feature multiscale or anomalous behavior. This has driven a desire for a vector calculus that includes nonlocal and fractional gradient, divergence and Laplacian type operators, as well as tools such as Green's identities, to model subsurface transport, turbulence, and conservation laws. In the literature, several independent definitions and theories of nonlocal and fractional vector calculus have been put forward. Some have been studied rigorously and in depth, while others have been introduced ad-hoc for specific applications. The goal of this work is to provide foundations for a unified vector calculus by (1) consolidating fractional vector calculus as a special case of nonlocal vector calculus, (2) relating unweighted and weighted Laplacian operators by introducing an equivalence kernel, and (3) proving a form of Green's identity to unify the corresponding variational frameworks for the resulting nonlocal volume-constrained problems. The proposed framework goes beyond the analysis of nonlocal equations by supporting new model discovery, establishing theory and interpretation for a broad class of operators, and providing useful analogues of standard tools from the classical vector calculus.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Agent-Based Modeling for the Circular Economy: Lessons Learned From Three Case Studies

The circular economy (CE) aims at decoupling human activities from resource use, creating wealth in the process. Recently, many scholars have questioned the link between increased circularity and sustainability, resulting in many methodological approaches being developed for that purpose. This presentation summarizes the insights gained from the application of agent-based modeling (ABM) to study the techno-economic and social conditions promoting circularity and sustainability of three technologies: photovoltaic (PV) modules, hard disk drives (HDDs), and wind blades. Four main categories of agents are defined in the ABM: asset owners, service providers (e.g., refurbishers), recyclers, and manufacturers. Two main CE strategies are represented: lifetime extension (through repair or reuse) and recycling. The developed models start by projecting installed capacities and end-of-life (EOL) quantities. Then the theory of planned behavior - a social psychology model explaining behavior adoption based on attitude, peer influence, and costs - is used to model the asset owners' EOL decision (i.e., landfill, recycle or extend the lifetime of the asset). Then, the quantities of assets flowing to the recycler and service provider agents and quantities of materials flowing to manufacturers are computed. Recyclers' economies of scale are dynamically modeled, and the value generated by the CE strategies for the recyclers, service providers, and manufacturers is computed within the model. When data are available, avoided greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the CE strategies adoption are calculated exogenously from the ABM simulations. Results show that with improved used PV modules warranties, the reuse CE strategy adoption increases from 1% to 23% between 2020 and 2050. Similarly, improved standards could enhance HDDs end-users trust in data-wiping - a prerequisite to reuse - leading to a 3-fold increase in the reuse rate and avoid about 5 million tons of CO2 eq by 2050. Regarding wind blades, 5-15 years lifetime extension could reduce EOL blade quantities by 13%. High costs and logistic issues prevent blades from being recycled in greater quantities. One insight from the case studies is the necessity to have mature secondary markets for reuse to be a viable option. Interestingly, PV reuse is limited by the willingness of PV owners to purchase used modules (on the demand side), while HDDs reuse is constrained by the lack of trust toward data-wiping (limiting the supply of used HDDs). The six limits of the CE concepts presented by Korhonen et al. (2018) are finally used to interpret the results. The HDD case study is an exemplary lock-in, where the first accepted practice (shredding) retains most of the market. The PV results illustrate the technical limitation to reuse, as the growing demand cannot be supplied entirely with used PV modules. The wind case study shows the relevance of clearly defining physical flows - what type of waste should wind blades be considered, how should they be transported and landfilled? - a crucial consideration that also applies to PV modules. Finally, the three case studies highlight the relevance of studying a technology's technical, economic, and market material efficiency potentials altogether and the potential benefit of coupling ABM to life cycle assessment.

agent-based modeling↗

Convective Updraft and Downdraft Characteristics of Continental Mesoscale Convective Systems in the Model Gray Zone

Here, the "gray zone" of convective modeling is defined as the range of horizontal grid spacings (Δx) at which turbulent transport processes are only partially resolved by the dynamics of the numerical model. This zone typically covers Δx from a few kilometers to several hundred meters, wherein the realistic representation of convective cloud processes can be challenging. This study characterizes the convective draft behaviors at multiple Δx across the gray zone and determines the appropriate Δx that can reliably capture these salient convective properties. We perform an ensemble of idealized simulations of mesoscale convective systems (MCS) using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at various Δx from 4 km to 250 m over the central U.S. An evaluation of key MCS kinematic properties is constrained using unique, long-term vertical velocity estimates obtained by radar wind profilers deployed by the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement user facility. MCS simulations for all Δx tested overestimate (underestimate) the probabilities of convective updrafts (downdrafts) compared to the observations. In terms of the convective draft intensity, finer-Δx models overestimate the updraft intensity, while the opposite is found for downdrafts. Moving from Δx = 4 km to 250 m, downdrafts become stronger and more frequent especially at middle and upper levels, attributed to additional drag from an increasing graupel frequency and compensation of enhanced updraft velocity. Simulated draft characteristics, including core size, intensity, and probability of occurrence, exhibit pronounced changes at Δx greater than 500 m, but suggest less sensitivity when Δx is reduced below 500 m.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analytic Sensitivity Coefficients for General Multigroup Infinite Medium k-Eigenvalue Problems

The general multigroup infinite medium k-eigenvalue neutron transport equation is used to derive analytic expressions for the infinite medium k-eigenvalue, the scalar neutron flux and adjoint, and the sensitivity of $k$ ∞ to perturbations in the multigroup nuclear data of a single species isotropic elastic scattering material. In the appendix, we present the multigroup nuclear data for U-235 and U-238 along with the corresponding k-eigenvalue, flux, adjoint, and sensitivity profiles, which include the sensitivity of $k$ ∞ to the total, fission, capture, and scattering macroscopic cross sections as well as to the group-to-group scattering cross section matrix, group neutron production, and the unconstrained and constrained fission neutron energy distribution.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Physics-informed machine learning of redox flow battery based on a two-dimensional unit cell model

In this paper, we present a physics-informed neural network (PINN) approach for predicting the performance of an all-vanadium redox flow battery, with its physics constraints enforced by a two-dimensional (2D) mathematical model. The 2D model, which includes 6 governing equations and 24 boundary conditions, provides a detailed representation of the electrochemical reactions, mass transport and hydrodynamics occurring inside the redox flow battery. To solve the 2D model with the PINN approach, a composite neural network is employed to approximate species concentration and potentials; the input and output are normalized according to prior knowledge of the battery system; the governing equations and boundary conditions are first scaled to an order of magnitude around 1, and then further balanced with a self-weighting method. Our numerical results show that the PINN is able to predict cell voltage correctly, but the prediction of potentials shows a constant-like shift. To fix the shift, the PINN is enhanced by further constrains derived from the current collector boundary. Finally, we show that the enhanced PINN can be even further improved if a small number of labeled data is available.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Visualisation and outlier detection for probability density function ensembles

Abstract Exploratory data analysis (EDA) for functional data—data objects where observations are entire functions—is a difficult problem that has seen significant attention in recent literature. This surge in interest is motivated by the ubiquitous nature of functional data, which are prevalent in applications across fields such as meteorology, biology, medicine and engineering. Empirical probability density functions (PDFs) can be viewed as constrained functional data objects that must integrate to one and be nonnegative. They show up in contexts such as yearly income distributions, zooplankton size structure in oceanography and in connectivity patterns in the brain, among others. While PDF data are certainly common in modern research, little attention has been given to EDA specifically for PDFs. In this paper, we extend several methods for EDA on functional data for PDFs and compare them on simulated data that exhibit different types of variation, designed to mimic that seen in real‐world applications. We then use our new methods to perform EDA on the breakthrough curves observed in gas transport simulations for underground fracture networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Seismic constraints from a Mars impact experiment using InSight and Perseverance

NASA’s InSight (Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport) mission has operated a sophisticated suite of seismology and geophysics instruments on the surface of Mars since its arrival in 2018. On 18 February 2021, we attempted to detect the seismic and acoustic waves produced by the entry, descent and landing of the Perseverance rover using the sensors onboard the InSight lander. Similar observations have been made on Earth using data from both crewed and uncrewed spacecraft, and on the Moon during the Apollo era, but never before on Mars or another planet. This was the only seismic event to occur on Mars since InSight began operations that had an a priori known and independently constrained timing and location. It therefore had the potential to be used as a calibration for other marsquakes recorded by InSight. Here we report that no signal from Perseverance’s entry, descent and landing is identifiable in the InSight data. Nonetheless, measurements made during the landing window enable us to place constraints on the distance–amplitude relationships used to predict the amplitude of seismic waves produced by planetary impacts and place in situ constraints on Martian impact seismic efficiency (the fraction of the impactor kinetic energy converted into seismic energy).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Emerging investigator series: kinetics of diopside reactivity for carbon mineralization in mafic–ultramafic rocks

The ongoing use of fossil fuels to supply modern energy demands has necessitated research on combating carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and climate change. Carbon storage via mineral trapping in basalt and related rocks is a promising strategy. However, mineralization rates depend on the variable minerology that makes up these rock formations. Diopside (CaMgSi 2 O 6 ) is a common pyroxene mineral in ultramafic and mafic rocks including basalt, but relatively little work has been done to understand its carbon mineralization kinetics using hydrated supercritical CO 2 , which induces the formation of reactive nanoscale interfacial water films. Here, in situ XRD experiments at 50–110 °C and 90 bar indicate that diopside transforms into a myriad of Mg/Ca carbonates, including huntite [Mg 3 Ca(CO 3 ) 4 ] and very high magnesium calcite (VHMC, i.e., protodolomite). Through ex situ characterization, we were able to constrain reaction pathways for the dissolution–precipitation transformation process including metastable intermediate precipitates. Experiments performed at variable temperatures enabled Avrami-derived rate constants and an apparent activation energy of 97 ± 16 kJ mol –1 , implying the dissolution of diopside is the rate-limiting step. Density functional theory (DFT) calculations, used to gain molecular insight into the surface stability of the diopside during dissolution, suggest that exposed calcium cations are susceptible to dissolution when put in contact with water given their coordination environment. The collective results point to the high CO 2 mineralization potential of diopside in basalts, which could help guide parameterization of reactive transport models needed to design and permit commercial-scale subsurface carbon storage operations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Patterns and rates of soil movement and shallow failures across several small watersheds on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Abstract. Thawing permafrost can alter topography, ecosystems, and sediment and carbon fluxes, but predicting landscape evolution of permafrost-influenced watersheds in response to warming and/or hydrological changes remains an unsolved challenge. Sediment flux and slope instability in sloping saturated soils have been commonly predicted from topographic metrics (e.g., slope, drainage area). In addition to topographic factors, cohesion imparted by soil and vegetation and melting ground ice may also control spatial trends in slope stability, but the distribution of ground ice is poorly constrained and hard to predict. To address whether slope stability and surface displacements follow topographic-based predictions, we document recent drivers of permafrost sediment flux present on a landscape in western Alaska that include creep, solifluction, gullying, and catastrophic hillslope failures ranging in size from a few meters to tens of meters, and we find evidence of rapid and substantial landscape change on an annual timescale. We quantify the timing and rate of surface movements using a multi-pronged, multi-scalar dataset including aerial surveys, interannual GPS surveys, synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR), and climate data. Despite clear visual evidence of downslope soil transport of solifluction lobes, we find that the interannual downslope surface displacement of these features does not outpace downslope displacement of soil in locations where lobes are absent (downslope movement means: 7 cm yr−1 for lobes over 2 years vs. 10 cm yr−1 in landscape positions without lobes over 1 year). Annual displacements do not appear related to slope, drainage area, or modeled total solar radiation but are likely related to soil thickness, and volumetric sediment fluxes are high compared to temperate landscapes of comparable bedrock lithology. Time series of InSAR displacements show accelerated movement in late summer, associated with intense rainfall and/or deep thaw. While mapped slope failures do cluster at slope–area thresholds, a simple slope stability model driven with hydraulic conductivities representative of throughflow in mineral and organic soil drastically overpredicts the occurrence of slope failures. This mismatch implies permafrost hillslopes have unaccounted-for cohesion and/or throughflow pathways, perhaps modulated by vegetation, which stabilize slopes against high rainfall. Our results highlight the breadth and complexity of soil transport processes in Arctic landscapes and demonstrate the utility of using a range of synergistic data collection methods to observe multiple scales of landscape change, which can aid in predicting periglacial landscape evolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Local carbon reserves are insufficient for phloem terpene induction during drought in Pinus edulis in response to bark beetle–associated fungi

Stomatal closure during drought inhibits carbon uptake and may reduce a tree's defensive capacity. Limited carbon availability during drought may increase a tree's mortality risk, particularly if drought constrains trees' capacity to rapidly produce defenses during biotic attack. We parameterized a new model of conifer defense using physiological data on carbon reserves and chemical defenses before and after a simulated bark beetle attack in mature Pinus edulis under experimental drought. Attack was simulated using inoculations with a consistent bluestain fungus (Ophiostoma sp.) of Ips confusus, the main bark beetle colonizing this tree, to induce a defensive response. Trees with more carbon reserves produced more defenses but measured phloem carbon reserves only accounted for c. 23% of the induced defensive response. Our model predicted universal mortality if local reserves alone supported defense production, suggesting substantial remobilization and transport of stored resin or carbon reserves to the inoculation site. Our results show that de novo terpene synthesis represents only a fraction of the total measured phloem terpenes in P. edulis following fungal inoculation. Without direct attribution of phloem terpene concentrations to available carbon, many studies may be overestimating the scale and importance of de novo terpene synthesis in a tree's induced defense response.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗